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CON ahead in the betting on the eve of North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
    She is one opinion and not from our own scientists actually dealing with it here in the UK
    In July she gave an interview about how terrible the Delta wave was with descriptions of the patients she was seeing.

    Now she has described the current patients she is seeing with Omicron.

    These are not opinions. These are real world happenings.

    She is from Gauteng which was the start of Omicron, in fact she discovered it.

    Cases are now dropping there and the nature of the patients she is seeing have not changed.

    Please tell me how these facts are opinions?
    It is upto our scientists to recommend to our government action needed not for us to delegate it to South Africa's medics

    Chris Whitty has put a health warning on South Africa evidence live just now
    I think they are concerned that a "it's not as bad" narrative may hamper booster take-up.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Selebian said:

    I just checked into a chichi Shoreditch hotel.
    Put luggage down and sprawled on bed.

    The digital radio at the bedside suddenly piped up with some kind of covid prayer. Lord, grant your people peace. Radio 3 apparently.

    Is this how the world ends?

    Choral Evensong on Radio 3?

    If it is the end of the world, there are many far worse soundtracks.
    I'd always imagined more of a metal soundtrack. Or maybe Bill Bailey doing his satanic version of the BBC News theme.
    I’ve left it on. It’s very soothing.
    I fucking love the oboe.
    How about the music?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    Didn't watch Boris, but my sense is nothing has happened.

    Just free advertising for him with a by-election due?

    It’s worth watching as a master class in the art of politics. By all accounts he should be out on his arse by now. And yet he’s stood there invoking war time spirit in front of millions and has completely batted away the scandals that should have sunk him.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,262
    ISage calling for 10 day circuit breaker. Can see the logic to be honest. At least gives us more time to get the boosters in. Each day we slow the spread is 500-600k people a bit better protected.

    Essentially we can't stop the omicron wave, but we can buy a bit more time for people to have their booster doses.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Interestingly my firm’s Christmas party on Friday is not being cancelled
  • moonshine said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
    She is one opinion and not from our own scientists actually dealing with it here in the UK
    In July she gave an interview about how terrible the Delta wave was with descriptions of the patients she was seeing.

    Now she has described the current patients she is seeing with Omicron.

    These are not opinions. These are real world happenings.

    She is from Gauteng which was the start of Omicron, in fact she discovered it.

    Cases are now dropping there and the nature of the patients she is seeing have not changed.

    Please tell me how these facts are opinions?
    It is upto our scientists to recommend to our government action needed not for us to delegate it to South Africa's medics
    I agree but the evidence from SA is being ignored.

    Did we ignore the evidence from Italy in Feb 2020 or India in April 2021 ?
    It has actually been directly referred to by Chris Whitty j7st now with a health warning and a detailed explanation
    I listened very carefully and he made himself sound a moron
    You mean he gave a scientific response to those claiming the evidence from South Africa was relevant to the UK at this time
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Maffew said:

    Well, I have successfully been scared into cancelling my planned drinks tonight. Not because I'm worried about catching or even spreading the virus, I'm triple jabbed as is every member of my family other than my younger brother (not yet eligible), but because I can't face the idea of another Christmas locked up in my flat, which seems to be a likely consequence of heading out at this point. Sigh - fear of restrictions > fear of virus.

    Exactly my position. I couldn’t care less from the 26th onwards but I’ll do everything I can not to spoil my boy’s Christmas
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Charles said:

    Selebian said:

    I just checked into a chichi Shoreditch hotel.
    Put luggage down and sprawled on bed.

    The digital radio at the bedside suddenly piped up with some kind of covid prayer. Lord, grant your people peace. Radio 3 apparently.

    Is this how the world ends?

    Choral Evensong on Radio 3?

    If it is the end of the world, there are many far worse soundtracks.
    I'd always imagined more of a metal soundtrack. Or maybe Bill Bailey doing his satanic version of the BBC News theme.
    I’ve left it on. It’s very soothing.
    I fucking love the oboe.
    How about the music?
    Oo-er. Carry on covid chorale.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848
    rkrkrk said:

    ISage calling for 10 day circuit breaker. Can see the logic to be honest. At least gives us more time to get the boosters in. Each day we slow the spread is 500-600k people a bit better protected.

    Essentially we can't stop the omicron wave, but we can buy a bit more time for people to have their booster doses.

    How would anyone get that through parliament. It's a non-starter*.

    *famous last words...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    If I were Cadbury's I'd be doing some sort of national ad campaign around the chocolate bar Boost.

    I’d look at sponsoring a school vaccination programme… have a booster get a boost…
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So in SA in Guateng it looks like hospital admissions went +200%, +100%, +50% on a weekly basis. Other regions have done the first 200%, will be interesting to see fi they follow the patttern.

    Current week is incomplete and I haven't worked out the likely figure just yet, could well be ending up flat. That's a liveable with explosion as long as the fall is reasonably fast given the low ration of ICU patients in that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Stocky said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
    She is one opinion and not from our own scientists actually dealing with it here in the UK
    In July she gave an interview about how terrible the Delta wave was with descriptions of the patients she was seeing.

    Now she has described the current patients she is seeing with Omicron.

    These are not opinions. These are real world happenings.

    She is from Gauteng which was the start of Omicron, in fact she discovered it.

    Cases are now dropping there and the nature of the patients she is seeing have not changed.

    Please tell me how these facts are opinions?
    It is upto our scientists to recommend to our government action needed not for us to delegate it to South Africa's medics

    Chris Whitty has put a health warning on South Africa evidence live just now
    I think they are concerned that a "it's not as bad" narrative may hamper booster take-up.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    To prevent more time wasting, assume that all are in DISAGREE.

    I've waited 18 months for NHS care. Annoying, but a balance had to be struck across financial resources and the life of the country outside of healthcare.

    Much has been made of mental health, for example. There is no health-cost free option during a pandemic.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.

    He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that.
    He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
    I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Can Bozo squeeze in another press briefing before tomorrow’s by-election ?

    Omicron looks like it’s saved the clown .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,716
    Maffew said:

    Well, I have successfully been scared into cancelling my planned drinks tonight. Not because I'm worried about catching or even spreading the virus, I'm triple jabbed as is every member of my family other than my younger brother (not yet eligible), but because I can't face the idea of another Christmas locked up in my flat, which seems to be a likely consequence of heading out at this point. Sigh - fear of restrictions > fear of virus.

    Yes, it was something my wife and I were discussing this morning, in an odd way we're sort of okay with getting it now as we're just about on the right side of Xmas to not have to be isolating by the time we get there next Saturday. Neither of us have got any symptoms now and if we can get it over and done with it would put us in the clear in January to not worry very much about being infected, Omicron or not.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Good grief, Kuenssberg on about additional restrictions when they have only just voted in Plan B.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    moonshine said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
    She is one opinion and not from our own scientists actually dealing with it here in the UK
    In July she gave an interview about how terrible the Delta wave was with descriptions of the patients she was seeing.

    Now she has described the current patients she is seeing with Omicron.

    These are not opinions. These are real world happenings.

    She is from Gauteng which was the start of Omicron, in fact she discovered it.

    Cases are now dropping there and the nature of the patients she is seeing have not changed.

    Please tell me how these facts are opinions?
    It is upto our scientists to recommend to our government action needed not for us to delegate it to South Africa's medics
    I agree but the evidence from SA is being ignored.

    Did we ignore the evidence from Italy in Feb 2020 or India in April 2021 ?
    It has actually been directly referred to by Chris Whitty j7st now with a health warning and a detailed explanation
    I listened very carefully and he made himself sound a moron
    You mean he gave a scientific response to those claiming the evidence from South Africa was relevant to the UK at this time
    He didn’t. He said hospitalisation in South Africa might be low because they have very good immunity due to their delta wave, so we shouldn’t take any notice of it. Well so do we, and we have an excellent vaccine programme on top whereas they don’t.

    He did not give a scientific explanation of any sort why the UK experience should be different to South Africa, because the only thing he might have said that made sense is “the vaccines don’t really work”. Which we already know is also wrong, even with only two doses.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FWIW - JPM in January has just been cancelled. Sorry, “virtualised”.

    It’s one of the really big healthcare events each year
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,262
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ISage calling for 10 day circuit breaker. Can see the logic to be honest. At least gives us more time to get the boosters in. Each day we slow the spread is 500-600k people a bit better protected.

    Essentially we can't stop the omicron wave, but we can buy a bit more time for people to have their booster doses.

    How would anyone get that through parliament. It's a non-starter*.

    *famous last words...
    I think could pass with Labour votes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848
    MaxPB said:

    Maffew said:

    Well, I have successfully been scared into cancelling my planned drinks tonight. Not because I'm worried about catching or even spreading the virus, I'm triple jabbed as is every member of my family other than my younger brother (not yet eligible), but because I can't face the idea of another Christmas locked up in my flat, which seems to be a likely consequence of heading out at this point. Sigh - fear of restrictions > fear of virus.

    Yes, it was something my wife and I were discussing this morning, in an odd way we're sort of okay with getting it now as we're just about on the right side of Xmas to not have to be isolating by the time we get there next Saturday. Neither of us have got any symptoms now and if we can get it over and done with it would put us in the clear in January to not worry very much about being infected, Omicron or not.
    I think the nation would be happy to self isolate from, say, 3rd to 13th of Jan.

    But not now.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Farooq said:

    moonshine said:

    Maffew said:

    Well, I have successfully been scared into cancelling my planned drinks tonight. Not because I'm worried about catching or even spreading the virus, I'm triple jabbed as is every member of my family other than my younger brother (not yet eligible), but because I can't face the idea of another Christmas locked up in my flat, which seems to be a likely consequence of heading out at this point. Sigh - fear of restrictions > fear of virus.

    Exactly my position. I couldn’t care less from the 26th onwards but I’ll do everything I can not to spoil my boy’s Christmas
    Where are you going instead?
    Why don’t you go fuck your self
  • moonshine said:

    Did Witty really just bat away South Africa’s experience of low hospitalisations as being irrelevant on the basis that they had really good immunity from prior waves?

    No - he gave a responsible comment about the evidence from South Africa and why we need to be cautious
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    rkrkrk said:

    Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.

    He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that.
    He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
    I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
    Every Doctor in South Africa?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
    The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,760
    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    To prevent more time wasting, assume that all are in DISAGREE.

    I've waited 18 months for NHS care. Annoying, but a balance had to be struck across financial resources and the life of the country outside of healthcare.

    Much has been made of mental health, for example. There is no health-cost free option during a pandemic.
    Interestingly, suicides fell quite substantially last year.
    I noticed that. Its weirdly counter intuitive.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.

    He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that.
    He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
    I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
    Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    moonshine said:

    Did Witty really just bat away South Africa’s experience of low hospitalisations as being irrelevant on the basis that they had really good immunity from prior waves?

    No - he gave a responsible comment about the evidence from South Africa and why we need to be cautious
    It rather depends on whether you think we should run things based on the best available evidence or take the most extreme interpretation just in case. Let us not forget, the PM has basically told GPs to do little else but give boosters. This has consequences and the upside is questionable, given we are already through the most vulnerable groups.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,738
    DavidL said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    To prevent more time wasting, assume that all are in DISAGREE.

    I've waited 18 months for NHS care. Annoying, but a balance had to be struck across financial resources and the life of the country outside of healthcare.

    Much has been made of mental health, for example. There is no health-cost free option during a pandemic.
    Interestingly, suicides fell quite substantially last year.
    I noticed that. Its weirdly counter intuitive.
    Happened in WW and ww2 I believe. Not that I understand it, either.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    To prevent more time wasting, assume that all are in DISAGREE.

    I've waited 18 months for NHS care. Annoying, but a balance had to be struck across financial resources and the life of the country outside of healthcare.

    Much has been made of mental health, for example. There is no health-cost free option during a pandemic.
    Interestingly, suicides fell quite substantially last year.
    Yes, good point.

    Curious.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,960
    Stocky said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
    She is one opinion and not from our own scientists actually dealing with it here in the UK
    In July she gave an interview about how terrible the Delta wave was with descriptions of the patients she was seeing.

    Now she has described the current patients she is seeing with Omicron.

    These are not opinions. These are real world happenings.

    She is from Gauteng which was the start of Omicron, in fact she discovered it.

    Cases are now dropping there and the nature of the patients she is seeing have not changed.

    Please tell me how these facts are opinions?
    It is upto our scientists to recommend to our government action needed not for us to delegate it to South Africa's medics

    Chris Whitty has put a health warning on South Africa evidence live just now
    I think they are concerned that a "it's not as bad" narrative may hamper booster take-up.
    Exactly this. If so, then fair play to them. I'd probably do the same. Under-promise and over-deliver. So long as it remains all about boosters, not lockdowns or "circuit breakers" aka ways of delaying the infection surge until vulnerable people's immunity has waned a bit more.
  • Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    What if that causes hardship to people in other ways?
    I am sure Chris is of the mindset that would be satisfied if the NHS was saved but millions of kids lost their educational chances, thousands died from mental disorders, suicide and depression and businesses were decimated, all because of Government action to counter covid. None of that matters to him as long as the NHS is saved.

    The operation was a success even though the patient died.
  • The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
    We are in a different hemisphere to SA though.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.

    He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that.
    He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
    I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
    Every Doctor in South Africa?
    Yes
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    jonny83 said:

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
    The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
    In fairness – and yet again! – the South Africans are comparing SA (Omicron) with SA (Delta) they are NOT comparing with far-flung foreign lands with entirely different demographics.

    @MikeSmithson – any chance of pinning this post as we seem to have to repeat it every couple of hours?
  • Witty certainly living up to his Dr Doom moniker. Record will be broken and making a big play on the milder narrative.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,760
    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    To prevent more time wasting, assume that all are in DISAGREE.

    I've waited 18 months for NHS care. Annoying, but a balance had to be struck across financial resources and the life of the country outside of healthcare.

    Much has been made of mental health, for example. There is no health-cost free option during a pandemic.
    Interestingly, suicides fell quite substantially last year.
    I noticed that. Its weirdly counter intuitive.
    It makes some sense. E.g. fewer opportunities during lockdown due to other people being around.
    But we are all supposed to be isolated, depressed, missing human company, drinking far too much at home, falling out with our spouses having seen more of them than we can cope with, suffered financial anxiety, not been getting prompt medical attention for anything other than Covid etc etc etc.

    It shows the danger of just assuming or using common sense. I have heard the dangers to mental health, for example, mentioned countless times on the media and elsewhere. Its just not showing up in the figures.
  • Peston being a bell end as usual. Perfectly ok to challenge Boris on party issue, but dragging the two non-political eggheads into it is not on.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    jonny83 said:

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
    The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
    That is correct but look at what happened in SA during the Delta wave to what is happening now.

    That is the point, the SA doctors are comparing like for like, not different countries.
  • Reading some of the comments on here, there really is ludicrous absolutism going on. Nobody is proposing lockdown forever, the end of education, the closing of business. At the same time, whilst I respect the people who don't want more restrictions I don't think any of them advocate going out regardless of if you have Covid or not to try and kill people.

    This would be significantly less shit if we stopped hurling moron, troll, fuck you etc at each other.

    100% agree especially with your last sentence
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    jonny83 said:

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
    The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
    In fairness – and yet again! – the South Africans are comparing SA (Omicron) with SA (Delta) they are NOT comparing with far-flung foreign lands with entirely different demographics.

    @MikeSmithson – any chance of pinning this post as we seem to have to repeat it every couple of hours?
    And that's a fairish point but not an absolute killer. There is no reason in principle why the virus shouldn't have evolved in a direction which makes it relatively more hostile to us than to them.
  • I have turned off the dickhead questions....are any of the grown-ups asking sensible questions for instance about the supply of anti-virals? Witty mentioned them, but no details.....how many does the UK have, how many will we get over the next few weeks? How will they be delivered to the vulnerable, because to be effective they need to get them the same day as they get symptoms.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    jonny83 said:

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
    The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
    They’re marginally more obese than us too.

    In their favour, they had higher excess death in the last year than us. And if there’s causation in the data shown in the study on chromosome 3, their racial demographics are an advantage too:

    https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-11-05-researchers-uncover-gene-doubles-risk-death-covid-19

    But none of that gets away from comparing South Africa in this wave vs South Africa in past waves. The data is now fairly mature in Gauteng and it shows a drastic fall in proportion of patients needing oxygen treatment. And this rings true with the ex vivo study someone posted earlier:

    https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1471088942543949829?s=20

    As far as I can see, the only thing of relevance at this point that might cause us trouble is if 2 doses of a vaccine (x months old) give substantially poorer protection against serious illness than infection by delta within the last year.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
    We are in a different hemisphere to SA though.
    Good point. The Covid particles circulate clockwise through the air here.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    IshmaelZ said:

    jonny83 said:

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
    The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
    In fairness – and yet again! – the South Africans are comparing SA (Omicron) with SA (Delta) they are NOT comparing with far-flung foreign lands with entirely different demographics.

    @MikeSmithson – any chance of pinning this post as we seem to have to repeat it every couple of hours?
    And that's a fairish point but not an absolute killer. There is no reason in principle why the virus shouldn't have evolved in a direction which makes it relatively more hostile to us than to them.
    Thats a new one.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,742

    Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    What if that causes hardship to people in other ways?
    I am sure Chris is of the mindset that would be satisfied if the NHS was saved but millions of kids lost their educational chances, thousands died from mental disorders, suicide and depression and businesses were decimated, all because of Government action to counter covid. None of that matters to him as long as the NHS is saved.

    The operation was a success even though the patient died.
    Yes, and of course I could invent any number of ridiculous things and say I was sure you believed them all, so you would be a contemptible person and I would win the argument and so on and so forth.

    Frankly I'm left with the impression a lot of people here have no comprehension of what is about to happen.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,404

    On a personal note:

    Mrs J's lung issues have emerged again in a minor way this week, after two years. We don't think it's Covid: the symptoms are the same as before, and she's tested negative on LFT every day.

    I really don't want her to get this bu**er.

    We're booked in for our boosters tomorrow morning; when the little 'un finishes school, we'll be hunkering down for a bit...

    Doesn't help if it's difficult to see a GP, either, does it? All the very best to you both.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,760

    On a personal note:

    Mrs J's lung issues have emerged again in a minor way this week, after two years. We don't think it's Covid: the symptoms are the same as before, and she's tested negative on LFT every day.

    I really don't want her to get this bu**er.

    We're booked in for our boosters tomorrow morning; when the little 'un finishes school, we'll be hunkering down for a bit...

    Excellent idea until your boosters are fully operational. Best wishes to you both, your wife especially.
  • moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Did Witty really just bat away South Africa’s experience of low hospitalisations as being irrelevant on the basis that they had really good immunity from prior waves?

    No - he gave a responsible comment about the evidence from South Africa and why we need to be cautious
    It rather depends on whether you think we should run things based on the best available evidence or take the most extreme interpretation just in case. Let us not forget, the PM has basically told GPs to do little else but give boosters. This has consequences and the upside is questionable, given we are already through the most vulnerable groups.
    From your perspective. Now try and put yourself on the opposite side of the table and consider what may be their perspective.

    The issue is that your definition of "most vulnerable groups" isn't the same as theirs. This is no longer about stopping the elderly dropping en masse. This is stopping so many people getting infected across the age range that even if its a low percentage getting really sick its still a lot in actual patient numbers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,760

    Reading some of the comments on here, there really is ludicrous absolutism going on. Nobody is proposing lockdown forever, the end of education, the closing of business. At the same time, whilst I respect the people who don't want more restrictions I don't think any of them advocate going out regardless of if you have Covid or not to try and kill people.

    This would be significantly less shit if we stopped hurling moron, troll, fuck you etc at each other.

    Yep, we never used to get that sort of language on here at all. It is not an improvement. Guido is still available, I believe.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702

    Reading some of the comments on here, there really is ludicrous absolutism going on. Nobody is proposing lockdown forever, the end of education, the closing of business. At the same time, whilst I respect the people who don't want more restrictions I don't think any of them advocate going out regardless of if you have Covid or not to try and kill people.

    This would be significantly less shit if we stopped hurling moron, troll, fuck you etc at each other.

    Indeed.

    If people feel the need to use that sort of language:

    1) It doesn't suggest they have a very strong argument

    2) It doesn't suggest calm, rational, balanced thinking

    3) It does suggest hysteria

    And people will judge the point being made accordingly.

    If you have a decent point to make you should be able to do it in a calm way.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    As usual the journalist questions here are total crap.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848
    Chris said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    What if that causes hardship to people in other ways?
    I am sure Chris is of the mindset that would be satisfied if the NHS was saved but millions of kids lost their educational chances, thousands died from mental disorders, suicide and depression and businesses were decimated, all because of Government action to counter covid. None of that matters to him as long as the NHS is saved.

    The operation was a success even though the patient died.
    Yes, and of course I could invent any number of ridiculous things and say I was sure you believed them all, so you would be a contemptible person and I would win the argument and so on and so forth.

    Frankly I'm left with the impression a lot of people here have no comprehension of what is about to happen.

    Well first off no one knows what's about to happen. All we have asked you is what would your plan be to address what you think is about to happen.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
    "even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19"

    Is that true? There are a fair number of countries where more than 1% of people have died of Covid, and they certainly didn't get 100% of people infected.
    The death rate is about 1% with Western health systems not overwhelmed, but also relates to the age structure.
  • Chris said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    What if that causes hardship to people in other ways?
    I am sure Chris is of the mindset that would be satisfied if the NHS was saved but millions of kids lost their educational chances, thousands died from mental disorders, suicide and depression and businesses were decimated, all because of Government action to counter covid. None of that matters to him as long as the NHS is saved.

    The operation was a success even though the patient died.
    Yes, and of course I could invent any number of ridiculous things and say I was sure you believed them all, so you would be a contemptible person and I would win the argument and so on and so forth.

    Frankly I'm left with the impression a lot of people here have no comprehension of what is about to happen.

    Just to remind you that you already gave this warning when Delta appeared and we had this same argument then. And guess what - you were wrong. This is why no one should take you seriously.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    Farooq said:

    On a personal note:

    Mrs J's lung issues have emerged again in a minor way this week, after two years. We don't think it's Covid: the symptoms are the same as before, and she's tested negative on LFT every day.

    I really don't want her to get this bu**er.

    We're booked in for our boosters tomorrow morning; when the little 'un finishes school, we'll be hunkering down for a bit...

    If you can get FFP3 masks before your boosters, consider it. You'll be spending at least 10 minutes in a room with multiple others in there. You don't want to catch it mere days before your booster becomes effective, that would be so frustrating.
    Good luck.
    Thanks. We've been on that since the beginning of this sh*te. We use whichever mask type we believe fits the situation.

    It's an odd feeling: I know she's otherwise fit and hearty, but then again, a few years back I saw her cough up a significant amount of blood, for reasons still not fully determined. She was given an asthma inhaler, and she hasn't had to use it for over a year before this week.

    To those who say only the old and sick die of Covid: I say fu** off you **** little small-****** **************'s. ;)
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Did Witty really just bat away South Africa’s experience of low hospitalisations as being irrelevant on the basis that they had really good immunity from prior waves?

    No - he gave a responsible comment about the evidence from South Africa and why we need to be cautious
    It rather depends on whether you think we should run things based on the best available evidence or take the most extreme interpretation just in case. Let us not forget, the PM has basically told GPs to do little else but give boosters. This has consequences and the upside is questionable, given we are already through the most vulnerable groups.
    From your perspective. Now try and put yourself on the opposite side of the table and consider what may be their perspective.

    The issue is that your definition of "most vulnerable groups" isn't the same as theirs. This is no longer about stopping the elderly dropping en masse. This is stopping so many people getting infected across the age range that even if its a low percentage getting really sick its still a lot in actual patient numbers.
    Would I rather someone with a lump is seen than a healthy 19 year receiving a third Pfizer jab? Well yes. There are opportunity costs to this roll out.
  • Chris said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    What if that causes hardship to people in other ways?
    I am sure Chris is of the mindset that would be satisfied if the NHS was saved but millions of kids lost their educational chances, thousands died from mental disorders, suicide and depression and businesses were decimated, all because of Government action to counter covid. None of that matters to him as long as the NHS is saved.

    The operation was a success even though the patient died.
    Yes, and of course I could invent any number of ridiculous things and say I was sure you believed them all, so you would be a contemptible person and I would win the argument and so on and so forth.

    Frankly I'm left with the impression a lot of people here have no comprehension of what is about to happen.

    It is almost like the future of a disease that has been known about for just three weeks has a degree of uncertainty attached.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    edited December 2021
    nico679 said:

    Can Bozo squeeze in another press briefing before tomorrow’s by-election ?

    Omicron looks like it’s saved the clown .

    Are you assuming all this is a positive for Boris? If anything this would make me more inclined to go and vote Lib Dem (who, I note, all voted against Plan B ).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,840
    edited December 2021
    Anybody asking witty about this comment

    "Chris Whitty warns that more Covid records are going to be broken in the coming weeks"

    If i was in the room i would be asking what levels do the models he has been shown actually show in terms of hospitalisations, icu, deaths....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281

    Does anyone actually watch the Boris press conferences anymore?

    My wife is watching it to practice her eyerolls, and just in case we were about to be banned from driving to Bath tomorrow.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,304
    edited December 2021
    Alistair said:

    So in SA in Guateng it looks like hospital admissions went +200%, +100%, +50% on a weekly basis. Other regions have done the first 200%, will be interesting to see fi they follow the patttern.

    Current week is incomplete and I haven't worked out the likely figure just yet, could well be ending up flat. That's a liveable with explosion as long as the fall is reasonably fast given the low ration of ICU patients in that.

    so for us

    week 0 - 800 admissions a day
    week 1 2400 admissions a day (+200%)
    Week 2 4800 admissions a day (+100%)
    week 3 7200 admissions a day (+50%)

    I'm not sure when the NHS collapses but those weeks 2 and 3 look scary.
  • Reading some of the comments on here, there really is ludicrous absolutism going on. Nobody is proposing lockdown forever, the end of education, the closing of business. At the same time, whilst I respect the people who don't want more restrictions I don't think any of them advocate going out regardless of if you have Covid or not to try and kill people.

    This would be significantly less shit if we stopped hurling moron, troll, fuck you etc at each other.

    People will die and businesses will collapse because of the measures the Government has taken over he last few weeks. Now we can argue about how many of those and how that compares with likely Covid deaths but the position of someone like Chris with his attitude of all that matters is saving the NHS is, frankly, fucking stupid. It is an absolutist position which deserves to be scorned by all reasonable people. Actions have consequences and too many of the Covid freaks (people freaking over Covid) are trying to pretend this is not the case.
    OK, I hear you. People have gone out and cancelled Christmas parties etc and that has a big impact on hospitality. But what we're now seeing is people cancelling because they are sick. Or because their own at home are sick. I was an early adopter of such things, losing a night out in Stockton 2 weekends back then one in London last weekend.

    Its happening now anyway whether they pull a lockdown or not. Chunks of the economy will shut themselves down as waves of sickness impact its ability to function.

    What the government should be doing is reinstating support for people and businesses. Not planning for a long term effort - Omicron looks like it will burn fiercely then burn itself out. It just happens to be hitting us at the worst possible time for industries like hospitality.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    MikeL said:

    Reading some of the comments on here, there really is ludicrous absolutism going on. Nobody is proposing lockdown forever, the end of education, the closing of business. At the same time, whilst I respect the people who don't want more restrictions I don't think any of them advocate going out regardless of if you have Covid or not to try and kill people.

    This would be significantly less shit if we stopped hurling moron, troll, fuck you etc at each other.

    Indeed.

    If people feel the need to use that sort of language:

    1) It doesn't suggest they have a very strong argument

    2) It doesn't suggest calm, rational, balanced thinking

    3) It does suggest hysteria

    And people will judge the point being made accordingly.

    If you have a decent point to make you should be able to do it in a calm way.
    On the other hand, this can be quite personal for some people. It is not an abstract threat.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,304
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Did Witty really just bat away South Africa’s experience of low hospitalisations as being irrelevant on the basis that they had really good immunity from prior waves?

    No - he gave a responsible comment about the evidence from South Africa and why we need to be cautious
    It rather depends on whether you think we should run things based on the best available evidence or take the most extreme interpretation just in case. Let us not forget, the PM has basically told GPs to do little else but give boosters. This has consequences and the upside is questionable, given we are already through the most vulnerable groups.
    From your perspective. Now try and put yourself on the opposite side of the table and consider what may be their perspective.

    The issue is that your definition of "most vulnerable groups" isn't the same as theirs. This is no longer about stopping the elderly dropping en masse. This is stopping so many people getting infected across the age range that even if its a low percentage getting really sick its still a lot in actual patient numbers.
    Would I rather someone with a lump is seen than a healthy 19 year receiving a third Pfizer jab? Well yes. There are opportunity costs to this roll out.
    Only because we are using NHS staff to jab patients which is something most people could do with a day or so training.
  • MikeL said:

    Reading some of the comments on here, there really is ludicrous absolutism going on. Nobody is proposing lockdown forever, the end of education, the closing of business. At the same time, whilst I respect the people who don't want more restrictions I don't think any of them advocate going out regardless of if you have Covid or not to try and kill people.

    This would be significantly less shit if we stopped hurling moron, troll, fuck you etc at each other.

    Indeed.

    If people feel the need to use that sort of language:

    1) It doesn't suggest they have a very strong argument

    2) It doesn't suggest calm, rational, balanced thinking

    3) It does suggest hysteria

    And people will judge the point being made accordingly.

    If you have a decent point to make you should be able to do it in a calm way.
    What a LOAD of bollox.





    (This is obviously tongue in cheek, but best clarify for the avoidance of doubt)
  • Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    You're wasting ours.

    I've made it clear I would have zero restrictions whatsoever. But you seem to be being coy about what specific measures you think are what it will take.

    If you're in charge what are the "whatever it takes" measures specifically?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281

    Didn't watch Boris, but my sense is nothing has happened.

    Just free advertising for him with a by-election due?

    I think they had to do a press conference with the record figure of positive test results reported today, and they've focused on encouraging people to be boostered. That's fair enough really.

    Timing is pretty fortunate for the by-election tomorrow, unless all the non-postal voting Tory oldies are scared away from the polling stations.
  • Cookie said:

    nico679 said:

    Can Bozo squeeze in another press briefing before tomorrow’s by-election ?

    Omicron looks like it’s saved the clown .

    Are you assuming all this is a positive for Boris? If anything this would make me more inclined to go and vote Lib Dem (who, I note, all voted against Plan B ).
    Yes but rightly or wrongly outside of pb.com there are far more in favour of restrictions than against them, so yes him playing a cautious PM listening to Whitty is good for him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,840
    edited December 2021
    Its clear the approach is going the herd immunity route, with the hope vaccines hold.
  • GlomGlom Posts: 13
    Eesh. If it deflagrates like this, maybe we can hope it turns sooner rather than later?

    I had a botched delivery today where my parcel was delivered to my neighbour so I had to knock on their door. I had to talk with someone in person. I hate that. Also, it increases covid risk.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,960
    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    So in SA in Guateng it looks like hospital admissions went +200%, +100%, +50% on a weekly basis. Other regions have done the first 200%, will be interesting to see fi they follow the patttern.

    Current week is incomplete and I haven't worked out the likely figure just yet, could well be ending up flat. That's a liveable with explosion as long as the fall is reasonably fast given the low ration of ICU patients in that.

    so for us

    week 0 - 800 admissions a day
    week 1 2400 admissions a day (+200%)
    Week 2 4800 admissions a day (+100%)
    week 3 7200 admissions a day (+50%)

    I'm not sure when the NHS collapses but those weeks 2 and 3 look scary.
    SA had virtually zero hospitalisations before the latest wave started though, so they were starting from a much lower base.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    In the past week:
    positives up 19%
    Testing up 15%.

    Is there a degree to which we are picking up lots more cases at the moment due to lots more testing - not least as people LFT before every encounter (presumably this is a massive underestimate - who bothers recording a negative LFT?)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Going into Year 2 there was a narrative. We would get vaccinated and restrictions would end. Going into Year 3 it looks pretty certain that nothing has changed. There is always a medical reasons for restrictions with this thing, and we will still be in restrictions in Year 13 and Year 23.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,304
    TimS said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    So in SA in Guateng it looks like hospital admissions went +200%, +100%, +50% on a weekly basis. Other regions have done the first 200%, will be interesting to see fi they follow the patttern.

    Current week is incomplete and I haven't worked out the likely figure just yet, could well be ending up flat. That's a liveable with explosion as long as the fall is reasonably fast given the low ration of ICU patients in that.

    so for us

    week 0 - 800 admissions a day
    week 1 2400 admissions a day (+200%)
    Week 2 4800 admissions a day (+100%)
    week 3 7200 admissions a day (+50%)

    I'm not sure when the NHS collapses but those weeks 2 and 3 look scary.
    SA had virtually zero hospitalisations before the latest wave started though, so they were starting from a much lower base.
    so spot the problem...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Cookie said:

    nico679 said:

    Can Bozo squeeze in another press briefing before tomorrow’s by-election ?

    Omicron looks like it’s saved the clown .

    Are you assuming all this is a positive for Boris? If anything this would make me more inclined to go and vote Lib Dem (who, I note, all voted against Plan B ).
    That's really interesting. Noted.

    There were also a remarkable amount of abstentions among the Labour higher-ups. Including PB crushes Bridget, Rachel and Rosena. I realise Rachel is unwell, but why so many? Was it a pairing thing? Or some other reason?

    https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1181#notrecorded
  • Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    What if that causes hardship to people in other ways?
    I am sure Chris is of the mindset that would be satisfied if the NHS was saved but millions of kids lost their educational chances, thousands died from mental disorders, suicide and depression and businesses were decimated, all because of Government action to counter covid. None of that matters to him as long as the NHS is saved.

    The operation was a success even though the patient died.
    On NHS admissions stats or predictions - when it is said 2000 a day hospital admissions it sounds a lot but the UK is big and putting it in perspective where most on here will instinctively understand that equates to less than 4 people per parliamentary constituency . Now think of your constituency , is 4 people a day being admitted to hospital in it really that frightening or seemingly overwhelming? To me it isn't
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485

    On a personal note:

    Mrs J's lung issues have emerged again in a minor way this week, after two years. We don't think it's Covid: the symptoms are the same as before, and she's tested negative on LFT every day.

    I really don't want her to get this bu**er.

    We're booked in for our boosters tomorrow morning; when the little 'un finishes school, we'll be hunkering down for a bit...

    Doesn't help if it's difficult to see a GP, either, does it? All the very best to you both.
    Thanks. In our case, the GP (as I've mentioned passim) is very, very poor.

    At the beginning of the crisis, we asked if she could be put on the vulnerable list. They said no, despite her having coughed up half a litre (*) or so of blood one evening (**) a year before. She doesn't really drink (probably a couple of glasses a year), and has never smoked. She used to be able to run marathons. But she is apparently not vulnerable....

    I hate our GP.

    (*) Paramedic's estimate.
    (**) It was the night of the second Falcon Heavy launch. An odd way to bookmark time.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.

    He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that.
    He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
    I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
    Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
    So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    You're wasting ours.

    I've made it clear I would have zero restrictions whatsoever. But you seem to be being coy about what specific measures you think are what it will take.

    If you're in charge what are the "whatever it takes" measures specifically?
    Or, put another way:

    - "Whatever it takes" to save the NHS in the short term, includes bankrupting the country in the medium term, thus collapsing the NHS in the long term
    - Therefore, you can't possibly mean that literally
    - So, what is the upper bound on the economic damage that you would accept to preserve the NHS in the short term?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,960
    eek said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    So in SA in Guateng it looks like hospital admissions went +200%, +100%, +50% on a weekly basis. Other regions have done the first 200%, will be interesting to see fi they follow the patttern.

    Current week is incomplete and I haven't worked out the likely figure just yet, could well be ending up flat. That's a liveable with explosion as long as the fall is reasonably fast given the low ration of ICU patients in that.

    so for us

    week 0 - 800 admissions a day
    week 1 2400 admissions a day (+200%)
    Week 2 4800 admissions a day (+100%)
    week 3 7200 admissions a day (+50%)

    I'm not sure when the NHS collapses but those weeks 2 and 3 look scary.
    SA had virtually zero hospitalisations before the latest wave started though, so they were starting from a much lower base.
    so spot the problem...
    No, our existing case load in hospitals is Delta. So our Omicron hospitalisations may well rise very rapidly but they are not starting at 800.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,486
    EPG said:

    Going into Year 2 there was a narrative. We would get vaccinated and restrictions would end. Going into Year 3 it looks pretty certain that nothing has changed. There is always a medical reasons for restrictions with this thing, and we will still be in restrictions in Year 13 and Year 23.

    Bollocks does it look like "nothing has changed". We have a largely vaccinated population, most with two jabs and now 25 million with a booster.

    I predict that Omicron will not be a huge problem for the vaccinated in the UK. But it will be grim for the unvaccinated. Even grimmer next year, when they get blamed for "breaking the NHS"..
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,262
    The fact that Omicron cases seem to be stacking on top of delta presumably means that a massive spike in hospitalizations is inevitable? That's pretty grim for the NHS.
  • Its clear Witty doesn't agree with government approach.
  • German police raid homes of 6 anti-vaxxers who allegedly talked about a plan to kill Saxony state leader Michael Kretschmer. Several weapons were found.
  • Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
    Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.

    How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE

    It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
    But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
    Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.

    Don't waste my time.
    You're wasting ours.

    I've made it clear I would have zero restrictions whatsoever. But you seem to be being coy about what specific measures you think are what it will take.

    If you're in charge what are the "whatever it takes" measures specifically?
    Or, put another way:

    - "Whatever it takes" to save the NHS in the short term, includes bankrupting the country in the medium term, thus collapsing the NHS in the long term
    - Therefore, you can't possibly mean that literally
    - So, what is the upper bound on the economic damage that you would accept to preserve the NHS in the short term?
    I just went and had a look at the ONS website on business closures. Over 300,000 in the first 3 quarters of 2021. A huge jump on previous years.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    37m
    What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
  • That spike! 🤯

    The peak shows 440.5k hits per minute generated by close to 100k people concurrently browsing the website + API users.

    Zero failures... not one server-side error. My job's done here. 😶‍🌫️🙋🏻 https://t.co/9Spouws3EI
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651

    EPG said:

    Going into Year 2 there was a narrative. We would get vaccinated and restrictions would end. Going into Year 3 it looks pretty certain that nothing has changed. There is always a medical reasons for restrictions with this thing, and we will still be in restrictions in Year 13 and Year 23.

    Bollocks does it look like "nothing has changed". We have a largely vaccinated population, most with two jabs and now 25 million with a booster.

    I predict that Omicron will not be a huge problem for the vaccinated in the UK. But it will be grim for the unvaccinated. Even grimmer next year, when they get blamed for "breaking the NHS"..
    I mean nothing has changed for all the other things we used to value in society, like, well, society. It now looks likely that public health advice will be against unnecessary social activity for the rest of time.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Evening all :)

    Trying to pick my way through the hyperbole jungle on today's developments - the sentiment among my work colleagues last week was the loss of the team Christmas lunch was a small price to pay if it meant spending Christmas with loved ones and/or family could be preserved.

    The economic cost of that caution is being felt in hospitality and other sectors - Mrs Stodge, in London today, reported it very quiet. After last year, the desire of individuals and families to meet on Christmas Day is so powerful anything which risks it is not going to be countenanced thus the decimation of the pre-Christmas social round.

    As PB has become the rest home for statisticians, data analysts, epidemiologists and virologists (it would seem), we are now blessed with a plethora of "information" about all of which I'm more than a little sceptical.

    I continue to struggle with all the versions of the truth out there.
  • Its clear Witty doesn't agree with government approach.

    And expects the government to give way to his approach next week!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    rkrkrk said:

    Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.

    He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that.
    He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
    I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
    Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
    So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔

    IshmaelZ said:

    jonny83 said:

    Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?

    Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
    The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
    In fairness – and yet again! – the South Africans are comparing SA (Omicron) with SA (Delta) they are NOT comparing with far-flung foreign lands with entirely different demographics.

    @MikeSmithson – any chance of pinning this post as we seem to have to repeat it every couple of hours?
    And that's a fairish point but not an absolute killer. There is no reason in principle why the virus shouldn't have evolved in a direction which makes it relatively more hostile to us than to them.
    Thats a new one.
    Really? It is entirely self-evident after a second's reflection to anyone with the most rudimentary power of thought. I literally cannot imagine how it could not be the case.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,840
    edited December 2021


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    37m
    What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.

    I am guessing the argument is they had big beta and delta waves, so the had both of the "base" mutations that form Omicron. They weren't hit so much with original variety. Our big wave has been original and alpha.
This discussion has been closed.