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CON ahead in the betting on the eve of North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
CON ahead in the betting on the eve of North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
Based on almost all the the by-election betting in the past year the betting markets have not been good prediction tools. These arewise words from Paul of the Poiticalgambler blog
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Heather Hallett will be leading the Covid Public Inquiry.
The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.
https://comresglobal.com/polls/lockdown-snap-poll-december-2021/
A lower 44% support closing pubs and restaurants, 35% opposed but 2019 Conservative voters are opposed to closing pubs and restaurants by 42% to 39%.
https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/38028217-Snap-Poll-14th-December_14.12-Final-Tables.xlsx
OMICRON THE DOESN’T-DISAPPOINT
If Labour's vote is 15% or more the Tories should hold on, if the Labour vote is under 10% the LDs should win due to large Labour tactical voting for the LDs. If it is 10-15% it will be neck and neck
@Anabobazina
@TimS
@FrankBooth
@Stocky
@williamglenn
@Gardenwalker
Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?
Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
Edit: pretty sure that is the second highest total vaccinations given out, only surpassed by a single day of the original campaign.
I think 300k infected today is plausible.
London wide Week on week (incomplete 13/12 Vs 6/12) - 105% increase (vs 88% seen yesterday)
(fingers crossed for a week or so)
No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1471150766698213385
What do you say?
Reality is - it's now too late to do anything about this all we can do is hope that it's as mild as some people claim it is.
You could add Cookie, Black Rook and Darkage to your list - plus others I'm sure.
Incidentally, I am a libertarian socialist remainer and am kind of agnostic on further measures - let's be led by the best available scientific evidence. Right now that evidence says Omicron is definitely more contagious and very probably less virulent - put those together and it looks like we may not need to put any more measures in place but we should be ready to act if necessary. And I certainly won't take any lessons in "freedom" from Tory MPs voting through the "strip brown people of their passports" bill.
@cjsnowdon
·
34m
Is it possible that there is something about Omicron which makes it target millennials? Sounds too good to be true but worth investigating.
A matter of time before someone says "casedemic".
(Yep, I'm wildly paraphrasing/over simplifying here, don't jump on me, philosophers)
incomplete 13/12: 6272 cases
6/12: 2289 cases
Week on week growth: 174% growth (was 138% yesterday).
Harris interactive (fieldwork 10 to 13 December - changes from last week)
Macron 24 (+1)
Pecresse 17 (+3)
Le Pen 16 (-2)
Zemmour 15 (+1)
Melenchon 11 (=)
Jadot 7 (=)
Hidalgo 4 (-1)
All others 6 (-2)
2nd round Macron 51(-2) / Pecresse 49(+2)
other scenarios tested: Macron 56/Le Pen 44 and Macron 62/Zemmour 38
OpinionWay (fieldwork 8-9/12, changes from mid-november)
Macron 25 (+1)
Pecresse 17 (+6)
Le Pen 16 (-4)
Zemmour 12 (=)
Melenchon 8 (-1)
Jadot 8 (=)
Hidalgo 5 (-1)
All others 9 (-1)
No 2nd round question.
The big event today is Macron's 2 hours-long taped interview that will be in prime-time on the biggest TV channel. Other candidates are furious and denounce what they see as unfairly occupying tv space (obviously they will not get the same opportunity). Maronists counter that the president is not yet a candidate and will just discuss his accomplishments as president without campaigning...
The discussions regarding a potential left-wing primary are getting nowhere. Thus some are pushing for other candidates to come in the race such as Christiane Taubira (former Justice Minister under Hollande, famous for giving her name to the gay-marriage law and treated as an icon by the left-wing press as a woman from french Guyana). Opinion Way included her in theit poll and she got 2%.
@BNODesk
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23m
Denmark, which has the highest number of confirmed Omicron cases, reports 8,773 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
Lockdowns and other mitigation methods are frankly pretty irrelevant by this point; economic and other activity is going to be hugely disrupted whatever the government does, even if the hospitalisation figures turn out to be manageable.
However...
https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/38028217-Snap-Poll-14th-December_14.12-Final-Tables.xlsx
‘Wuhan lab leak 'now the most likely origin of Covid', MPs told
Dr Alina Chan says there is also a risk that Covid-19 is an engineered virus
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR
15 December 2021 • 12:46pm
A laboratory leak is now the more likely origin of Covid, MPs have heard, because after two years of searching an animal host has never been found.’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/
Obviously its pointless stat in terms of raw numbers, but does give indication of doubling rate.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-south-africas-healthcare-workers-struggle-under-pressure-of-third-wave-12363905
I've got yet another free 5 quid Paddy Power voucher from the Daily Star; only this time I can bet on any sport.
England to win the Ashes anyone?
Most cases in London with swabs taken on 11 December were caused by Omicron.
https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1471152011747987460
The way omicron is infecting, its not long to wait to find out whether we are in the shit or not. I'm expecting a jump in hospitalisation for sure, but nothing like Jan 2021, and ultimately boosters to all willing by Jan 10th.
I dare say none will be doing PCRs after their positive flow tests. One guy reckoned 21/25 at a party he went to have tested positive.
Which raises an interesting question: when will omnicron peak in London?
If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
So again it all depends on the extent of Labour tactical voting for the LDs
Or do you think it's better regardless of how many people would die?
You didn’t actually say what you think would happen though. Is your mind the same place as mine - why would Labour vote be anywhere close 10% when they can walk around all week with a big grin they gave boris a bloody nose?
From a "good for Britain" point of view, it's not clear that any of the leading candidates are great. Macron loves a contrived crisis. Pecresse accused the EU of being soft on Britain. Le Pen is ultimately statist. And Zemmour thinks that the D Day landings were an Anglo Saxon invasion of France.
That he is doing it this way does rather confirm that last week's gifting a free broadcast to Keir Starmer was not intended. And also that the Commons Speaker can whistle for it.
The admissions numbers (although not up to date) also showing a lot of growth (169 for 13th vs 111 for 6th Dec).
And if it does hit the UK hard, crushing hospital capacity, then we will see de facto lockdowns anyway, irrespective of government diktat.
Pecresse is probably closest to Boris ideologically all things being equal, except on the EU where Zemmour is probably closer to him (albeit otherwise a French nationalist). Le Pen had some things in common with Boris in terms of appealing to the Redwall type voter but maybe less so now
While Witty says here are the numbers, by the way this plan isn't mine...
However, that doesn't mean that scientists can't develop their ideas any way they like, such as on PB, and Feyerabend would approve. So long as they are formally testable.
Though it is VERY frowned on to change the terms of one's hypothesis (e.g. changing the sample population, or one's definitions) after doing the experiment and finding that the data don't support it. Politely called fiddling, or, on PB. moving the goalposts.
Just incredible. The virality of OMICRON THE IRRESISTIBLE.
At the moment Omicron represents about 3% of cases in the USA. But at this pace it will be the dominant American strain by Christmas Day and nearly all cases before New Year.
Question for viro-historians, has humanity ever encountered a bug like this before? Something so blisteringly transmissible? It renders lockdowns near irrelevant, for good or ill
Is that true? There are a fair number of countries where more than 1% of people have died of Covid, and they certainly didn't get 100% of people infected.