The fact that Omicron cases seem to be stacking on top of delta presumably means that a massive spike in hospitalizations is inevitable? That's pretty grim for the NHS.
German police raid homes of 6 anti-vaxxers who allegedly talked about a plan to kill Saxony state leader Michael Kretschmer. Several weapons were found.
78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.
The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.
Well, what do you think?
No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.
Tell us what restrictions you favour.
As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.
Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you?
Agree with what? It's impossible to get him to explain his position.
Frankly, the fact that you people keep saying that is simply an admission of your fundamental dishonesty.
How can I make it any clearer? WE MUST DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO PREVENT THE NHS COLLAPSING AND BEING UNABLE TO GIVE PEOPLE MEDICAL CARE
It's a simple, fundamental political choice. If people disagree, they should have the honesty to say so. The fact that they have so much difficulty in doing so speaks volumes.
But you still haven't outlined any specific measures, just a generalised bit it rhetoric. What specific measures are we talking about here? Lockdown? Economic shutdown? For how long? How do we keep shelves stocked? Will the government send around the ration van? What are you specifically saying needs to be done?
Oh, for God's sake I don't believe you're really such a fool that you can't understand plain English.
Don't waste my time.
You're wasting ours.
I've made it clear I would have zero restrictions whatsoever. But you seem to be being coy about what specific measures you think are what it will take.
If you're in charge what are the "whatever it takes" measures specifically?
Or, put another way:
- "Whatever it takes" to save the NHS in the short term, includes bankrupting the country in the medium term, thus collapsing the NHS in the long term - Therefore, you can't possibly mean that literally - So, what is the upper bound on the economic damage that you would accept to preserve the NHS in the short term?
I just went and had a look at the ONS website on business closures. Over 300,000 in the first 3 quarters of 2021. A huge jump on previous years.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
Going into Year 2 there was a narrative. We would get vaccinated and restrictions would end. Going into Year 3 it looks pretty certain that nothing has changed. There is always a medical reasons for restrictions with this thing, and we will still be in restrictions in Year 13 and Year 23.
Bollocks does it look like "nothing has changed". We have a largely vaccinated population, most with two jabs and now 25 million with a booster.
I predict that Omicron will not be a huge problem for the vaccinated in the UK. But it will be grim for the unvaccinated. Even grimmer next year, when they get blamed for "breaking the NHS"..
I mean nothing has changed for all the other things we used to value in society, like, well, society. It now looks likely that public health advice will be against unnecessary social activity for the rest of time.
Trying to pick my way through the hyperbole jungle on today's developments - the sentiment among my work colleagues last week was the loss of the team Christmas lunch was a small price to pay if it meant spending Christmas with loved ones and/or family could be preserved.
The economic cost of that caution is being felt in hospitality and other sectors - Mrs Stodge, in London today, reported it very quiet. After last year, the desire of individuals and families to meet on Christmas Day is so powerful anything which risks it is not going to be countenanced thus the decimation of the pre-Christmas social round.
As PB has become the rest home for statisticians, data analysts, epidemiologists and virologists (it would seem), we are now blessed with a plethora of "information" about all of which I'm more than a little sceptical.
I continue to struggle with all the versions of the truth out there.
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?
Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
In fairness – and yet again! – the South Africans are comparing SA (Omicron) with SA (Delta) they are NOT comparing with far-flung foreign lands with entirely different demographics.
@MikeSmithson – any chance of pinning this post as we seem to have to repeat it every couple of hours?
And that's a fairish point but not an absolute killer. There is no reason in principle why the virus shouldn't have evolved in a direction which makes it relatively more hostile to us than to them.
Thats a new one.
Really? It is entirely self-evident after a second's reflection to anyone with the most rudimentary power of thought. I literally cannot imagine how it could not be the case.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
I am guessing the argument is they had big beta and delta waves, so the had both of the "base" mutations that form Omicron. They weren't hit so much with original variety. Our big wave has been original and alpha.
Trying to pick my way through the hyperbole jungle on today's developments - the sentiment among my work colleagues last week was the loss of the team Christmas lunch was a small price to pay if it meant spending Christmas with loved ones and/or family could be preserved.
The economic cost of that caution is being felt in hospitality and other sectors - Mrs Stodge, in London today, reported it very quiet. After last year, the desire of individuals and families to meet on Christmas Day is so powerful anything which risks it is not going to be countenanced thus the decimation of the pre-Christmas social round.
As PB has become the rest home for statisticians, data analysts, epidemiologists and virologists (it would seem), we are now blessed with a plethora of "information" about all of which I'm more than a little sceptical.
I continue to struggle with all the versions of the truth out there.
Excellent post
My wife has just said that we will keep ourselves to ourselves, apart from our family on Christmas Day and as she is my official spokesperson I agree !!!!!
Reading some of the comments on here, there really is ludicrous absolutism going on. Nobody is proposing lockdown forever, the end of education, the closing of business. At the same time, whilst I respect the people who don't want more restrictions I don't think any of them advocate going out regardless of if you have Covid or not to try and kill people.
This would be significantly less shit if we stopped hurling moron, troll, fuck you etc at each other.
Indeed.
If people feel the need to use that sort of language:
1) It doesn't suggest they have a very strong argument
2) It doesn't suggest calm, rational, balanced thinking
3) It does suggest hysteria
And people will judge the point being made accordingly.
If you have a decent point to make you should be able to do it in a calm way.
Yes, generally true too. As an MP I gave the briefest possible replies to people who used capital letters, multiple !!!!s and swearing, for exactly the reasons you state.
And to be honest I think I've sometimes "won" an argument where I actually had a weak case among non-committed people because my opponent shouted and I didn't.
Trying to pick my way through the hyperbole jungle on today's developments - the sentiment among my work colleagues last week was the loss of the team Christmas lunch was a small price to pay if it meant spending Christmas with loved ones and/or family could be preserved.
The economic cost of that caution is being felt in hospitality and other sectors - Mrs Stodge, in London today, reported it very quiet. After last year, the desire of individuals and families to meet on Christmas Day is so powerful anything which risks it is not going to be countenanced thus the decimation of the pre-Christmas social round.
As PB has become the rest home for statisticians, data analysts, epidemiologists and virologists (it would seem), we are now blessed with a plethora of "information" about all of which I'm more than a little sceptical.
I continue to struggle with all the versions of the truth out there.
I was out drinking last night in a pub but it was not busy for the time of year. Also a news article on the BBC about theatre shows playing to large audience gaps. Its people's choice after all but I cannot help thinking most people overreact to this risk even if it is just the risk of getting house arrested for 10 days and not a health risk. Which is a pity and a pity so many in the media and health community play up these fears . Anyway i shall continue to go out and about and lead a covid unaffected life and just wish others would to. Get your jabs/boosters and just forget about it is my advice
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
I am guessing the argument is they had big beta and delta waves, so the had both of the "base" mutations that form Omicron. They weren't hit so much with original variety. Our big wave has been original and alpha.
Nah, our big wave has been Delta. No doubt about it, Delta infected many millions more than original COVID and Alpha, probably more than both put together.
Trying to pick my way through the hyperbole jungle on today's developments - the sentiment among my work colleagues last week was the loss of the team Christmas lunch was a small price to pay if it meant spending Christmas with loved ones and/or family could be preserved.
The economic cost of that caution is being felt in hospitality and other sectors - Mrs Stodge, in London today, reported it very quiet. After last year, the desire of individuals and families to meet on Christmas Day is so powerful anything which risks it is not going to be countenanced thus the decimation of the pre-Christmas social round.
As PB has become the rest home for statisticians, data analysts, epidemiologists and virologists (it would seem), we are now blessed with a plethora of "information" about all of which I'm more than a little sceptical.
I continue to struggle with all the versions of the truth out there.
Excellent post
My wife has just said that we will keep ourselves to ourselves, apart from our family on Christmas Day and as she is my official spokesperson I agree !!!!!
The great thing about running as a hobby is that you keep yourself to yourself; not because you are antisocial, but because of the smell ...
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
For delta somewhere around 3-4m, for Omicron somewhere around 25-30m for infection, which is where the scary hospitalisation numbers come from. Everyday that number will go down by 500-600k because of infections+third doses, and eventually by over 1m per day primarily because of third doses.
And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.
You don't believe the growth rate is real?
If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.
Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.
And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.
DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
Playing devil’s advocate, maybe we need to let the NHS collapse, so that we can rebuild from scratch, will a patient and doctor centred system, rather than a manager and administrator based system. Do we need an insurance based system? Or do we keep the same system, with a 5% increase in Income Tax to pay for sufficient staff and resources?
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
For delta somewhere around 3-4m, for Omicron somewhere around 25-30m for infection, which is where the scary hospitalisation numbers come from. Everyday that number will go down by 500-600k because of infections+third doses, and eventually by over 1m per day primarily because of third doses.
Surely the 500-600k reduction isn't quite accurate, as some of the infected will, in a week or two, contribute to the scary hospitalisation and not the immune naive numbers?
Its clear Witty doesn't agree with government approach.
Only really agree with you in that Boris position is don’t cancel parties, so Whitty went as far as he could in prioritise your events, whilst smart lady doc actually told us not to go to sport stadiums for anything other than a vaccine
Whitty seemed flat and unconvincing. Although it probably looks okay in transcript, he didn’t sell it with his eyes to room or camera I thought, Maybe tired and weary. In q&a There were so many questions politically and medically side stepped today. 😕
I disagree with OGH in that in my opinion Boris definitely gets a rally round the flag electoral boost from the Covid War pressers and speeches this week.
'This is just the beginning of an extraordinary acceleration'.
Dr David Nabarro from the @WHO issues a strong warning about the Omicron variant, saying it's "vital" we reduce its spread as it's likely to get "extremely serious in the next two weeks".
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Way higher than that for Omicron, sadly. Remember two doses for Omicron reduces hospitalisations by 65%, for Delta two doses had a 90% reduction in hospitalisations. We're still waiting for three dose data but that should be fairly decent, higher than Delta with two doses. The biggest worries - 2m over 60s who haven't had their third doses and the 4m over 40s who haven't had third doses. That's a lot of potential hospitalisations, for the 2m over 60s alone it could be as many as 150k if they don't hurry up and get their third doses. For the 4m over 40s it could be as high as 100k. That's up 250k hospitalisations we could have prevented entirely if the government had got a move on with boosters instead of hanging around.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
Whitty was in agreement. Whilst it will not be "less severe" for you personally if you are unlucky enough to get absolutely flattened by it, far fewer people as a percentage infected will be that unlucky.
So it can still kill or hospitalise you, but its a lower percentage risk than it would have been otherwise. The reason why its not "less severe" overall is that so many people are going to be infected in a short time than a small percentage of a very large number is also a large number.
Its not difficult. A large percentage of a smaller number, and a small percentage of a larger number can be the same number.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
For delta somewhere around 3-4m, for Omicron somewhere around 25-30m for infection, which is where the scary hospitalisation numbers come from. Everyday that number will go down by 500-600k because of infections+third doses, and eventually by over 1m per day primarily because of third doses.
Surely the 500-600k reduction isn't quite accurate, as some of the infected will, in a week or two, contribute to the scary hospitalisation and not the immune naive numbers?
Yeah for sure, but what proportion is still unknown and really important. If it's 0.1% of infections then big who cares, if its 3% of infections then we've got problems.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
Whitty was in agreement. Whilst it will not be "less severe" for you personally if you are unlucky enough to get absolutely flattened by it, far fewer people as a percentage infected will be that unlucky.
So it can still kill or hospitalise you, but its a lower percentage risk than it would have been otherwise. The reason why its not "less severe" overall is that so many people are going to be infected in a short time than a small percentage of a very large number is also a large number.
Its not difficult. A large percentage of a smaller number, and a small percentage of a larger number can be the same number.
A smaller piece of a bigger pie, to borrow from a different discipline?
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
Yep. They cannot be clearer that 2 jabs or even 2 jabs and recovered still isn't sufficient protection against it. You'd be really unlucky to get really ill, but a small percentage of a very large number is a large number. Add on the wazzocks with no jab at all (hello London!) and some places will be in the shit.
Trying to pick my way through the hyperbole jungle on today's developments - the sentiment among my work colleagues last week was the loss of the team Christmas lunch was a small price to pay if it meant spending Christmas with loved ones and/or family could be preserved.
The economic cost of that caution is being felt in hospitality and other sectors - Mrs Stodge, in London today, reported it very quiet. After last year, the desire of individuals and families to meet on Christmas Day is so powerful anything which risks it is not going to be countenanced thus the decimation of the pre-Christmas social round.
As PB has become the rest home for statisticians, data analysts, epidemiologists and virologists (it would seem), we are now blessed with a plethora of "information" about all of which I'm more than a little sceptical.
I continue to struggle with all the versions of the truth out there.
Excellent post
My wife has just said that we will keep ourselves to ourselves, apart from our family on Christmas Day and as she is my official spokesperson I agree !!!!!
Seems that, after all, your good lady's taste for danger is indeed limited . . . to YOU!
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Of which a fair proportion will be babies/very young children presumably?
Some kids born in 2022 will start out with inate immunity to this thing through Mum. It's a bit annoying the preggo vax rate isn't higher, it's a two-fer deal !
As well as North Shropshire we have a bumper crop of local by-elections tomorrow. There are Lab defences in Bridgend, Medway, Telford and Wrekin, and Walsall. There is a MIG defence in Middlesbrough and a Ind elected as Con defence in West Lindsey. Finally there are Con defences in Argyll and Bute, Ashford, Horsham, Lichfield, Northumberland, and West Berkshire. It is possible that there will be no Conservatives elected tomorrow!
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Playing devil’s advocate, maybe we need to let the NHS collapse, so that we can rebuild from scratch, will a patient and doctor centred system, rather than a manager and administrator based system. Do we need an insurance based system? Or do we keep the same system, with a 5% increase in Income Tax to pay for sufficient staff and resources?
Regardless of your views on the NHS, this really isn't the moment to contemplate collapsing the current system and replacing it with something else.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Way higher than that for Omicron, sadly. Remember two doses for Omicron reduces hospitalisations by 65%, for Delta two doses had a 90% reduction in hospitalisations. We're still waiting for three dose data but that should be fairly decent, higher than Delta with two doses. The biggest worries - 2m over 60s who haven't had their third doses and the 4m over 40s who haven't had third doses. That's a lot of potential hospitalisations, for the 2m over 60s alone it could be as many as 150k if they don't hurry up and get their third doses. For the 4m over 40s it could be as high as 100k. That's up 250k hospitalisations we could have prevented entirely if the government had got a move on with boosters instead of hanging around.
Ah yes, no I meant for Covid generally. People who have neither caught it (any variant) nor had even a first vaccine. Omicron does look very scary on the NHS and general sickness front. This is the sense I'm getting. Perhaps it will be No Lockdown for the worst reason - that it won't work. Fingers crossed anyway.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Omicron is like an oncoming megastorm everyone in its path gets fucked. I'm not sure that the media really understand just how infectious it is and how little any lockdowns are going to do to stop it. Boosters are the only way out, anyone trying to say otherwise is selling you a fantasy.
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
Yep. They cannot be clearer that 2 jabs or even 2 jabs and recovered still isn't sufficient protection against it. You'd be really unlucky to get really ill, but a small percentage of a very large number is a large number. Add on the wazzocks with no jab at all (hello London!) and some places will be in the shit.
One third of London not vaccinated. Very bad state of affairs.
Did anyone else see the WHO guy, Nabarro, on Sky News?
I have never seen a senior global health official look so shaken and full of foreboding
I have just sold all my shares
Yes and he really was shaken and also expressing concern for the rest of the world
As he said, it’s not so much the intrinsic lethality (tho that could still, easily, be just as bad as Delta - we dunno) it’s OMICRON’S capacity to infect zillions simultaneously, so that health systems just crumple. No doctors, no nurses, nothing. And this is isn’t some future event, this is right here right now. The next few weeks
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
Whitty was in agreement. Whilst it will not be "less severe" for you personally if you are unlucky enough to get absolutely flattened by it, far fewer people as a percentage infected will be that unlucky.
So it can still kill or hospitalise you, but its a lower percentage risk than it would have been otherwise. The reason why its not "less severe" overall is that so many people are going to be infected in a short time than a small percentage of a very large number is also a large number.
Its not difficult. A large percentage of a smaller number, and a small percentage of a larger number can be the same number.
A smaller piece of a bigger pie, to borrow from a different discipline?
The "debate" here reminds me of past battles with Commercial Finance managers battling to save percentage margins. You can't pay the bills with a percentage, and a smaller percentage of a much larger sales number is more profit than a larger percentage of a smaller sales number.
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
Yep. They cannot be clearer that 2 jabs or even 2 jabs and recovered still isn't sufficient protection against it. You'd be really unlucky to get really ill, but a small percentage of a very large number is a large number. Add on the wazzocks with no jab at all (hello London!) and some places will be in the shit.
One third of London not vaccinated. Very bad state of affairs.
It's not a third. That number is incorrect and the government has a lot to answer for by using a knowingly wrong denominator. London first doses are about 85% and second doses about 75% and that's with a more transient population than anywhere in the country so the actual number could be higher.
Don't get Witty's point about Omicron mildness being due to widespread prior immunity. Given the UK has 90% of over 16s vaccinated and has had a significant Delta wave, surely we are in a similar position?
Of course we are, its nonsense to not think that we will have a similar experience to SA.
The median age of SA is 27, Median age of the UK is 40. Yes I know SA has a lot of HIV and AIDS, but just as big of a factor is age when it comes to Covid outcomes.
In their favour they have youth, and lots of prior infections.
Against them, they have HIV/AIDS, poverty, obesity, poor diets, townships, and very low vaccine coverage.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
We urgently need support for people and businesses. It isn't a binary choice of "no lockdown lets go on the piss" or "lockdown nobody goes out". Swathes won't go out anyway as they are sick, someone they live with is sick or they simply don't want to risk it. Its shutdown, not lockdown.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Way higher than that for Omicron, sadly. Remember two doses for Omicron reduces hospitalisations by 65%, for Delta two doses had a 90% reduction in hospitalisations. We're still waiting for three dose data but that should be fairly decent, higher than Delta with two doses. The biggest worries - 2m over 60s who haven't had their third doses and the 4m over 40s who haven't had third doses. That's a lot of potential hospitalisations, for the 2m over 60s alone it could be as many as 150k if they don't hurry up and get their third doses. For the 4m over 40s it could be as high as 100k. That's up 250k hospitalisations we could have prevented entirely if the government had got a move on with boosters instead of hanging around.
Ah yes, no I meant for Covid generally. People who have neither caught it (any variant) nor had even a first vaccine. Omicron does look very scary on the NHS and general sickness front. This is the sense I'm getting. Perhaps it will be No Lockdown for the worst reason - that it won't work. Fingers crossed anyway.
The fact that an intervention doesn't work hasn't apparently been any reason not to do it in the past.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Way higher than that for Omicron, sadly. Remember two doses for Omicron reduces hospitalisations by 65%, for Delta two doses had a 90% reduction in hospitalisations. We're still waiting for three dose data but that should be fairly decent, higher than Delta with two doses. The biggest worries - 2m over 60s who haven't had their third doses and the 4m over 40s who haven't had third doses. That's a lot of potential hospitalisations, for the 2m over 60s alone it could be as many as 150k if they don't hurry up and get their third doses. For the 4m over 40s it could be as high as 100k. That's up 250k hospitalisations we could have prevented entirely if the government had got a move on with boosters instead of hanging around.
Ah yes, no I meant for Covid generally. People who have neither caught it (any variant) nor had even a first vaccine. Omicron does look very scary on the NHS and general sickness front. This is the sense I'm getting. Perhaps it will be No Lockdown for the worst reason - that it won't work. Fingers crossed anyway.
In general, yeah about 3-4m without any prior infection or vaccine doses.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Omicron is like an oncoming megastorm everyone in its path gets fucked. I'm not sure that the media really understand just how infectious it is and how little any lockdowns are going to do to stop it. Boosters are the only way out, anyone trying to say otherwise is selling you a fantasy.
^this. I've been saying this for a little while. Much to certain people's sweary outrage.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Tedious partisan claptrap. OMICRON is gonna fuck us, whatever. Boris did his best to keep businesses half open. I guess he could have closed the entire economy and put us all in disused tin mines but whatever. This is now way beyond party politics
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
We urgently need support for people and businesses. It isn't a binary choice of "no lockdown lets go on the piss" or "lockdown nobody goes out". Swathes won't go out anyway as they are sick, someone they live with is sick or they simply don't want to risk it. Its shutdown, not lockdown.
Way higher than that for Omicron, sadly. Remember two doses for Omicron reduces hospitalisations by 65%, for Delta two doses had a 90% reduction in hospitalisations. We're still waiting for three dose data but that should be fairly decent, higher than Delta with two doses. The biggest worries - 2m over 60s who haven't had their third doses and the 4m over 40s who haven't had third doses. That's a lot of potential hospitalisations, for the 2m over 60s alone it could be as many as 150k if they don't hurry up and get their third doses. For the 4m over 40s it could be as high as 100k. That's up 250k hospitalisations we could have prevented entirely if the government had got a move on with boosters instead of hanging around.
As we discussed yesterday, there's also those who have never been vaccinated. Some might well have derived some immunity from contracting the virus either in spring 2020 or in January this year but would that immunity still exist by now?
We might presume Omicron will work through the outstanding unvaccinated and unprotected adults (which could be 2 million in London alone if the Standard is correct). The problem is while some of the "2 Million" might be young and able to withstand the infection, the worry must be a minority will be much older (many in ethnic communities regrettably) and as you say a much bigger risk of hospitalisation.
While I accept the need to prioritise booster vaccinations (and you've given millions of reasons why this is the case), we should also be trying our hardest to reach those particularly older people who have continued to refuse any vaccine.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Of which a fair proportion will be babies/very young children presumably?
Yep, whatever number it is would surely include plenty of them. Way I got the number was first take the number unvaxxed and then deduct an estimate of how many of them would by now have had some form of Covid. But I imagine somebody somewhere has done it more rigorously.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Omicron is like an oncoming megastorm everyone in its path gets fucked. I'm not sure that the media really understand just how infectious it is and how little any lockdowns are going to do to stop it. Boosters are the only way out, anyone trying to say otherwise is selling you a fantasy.
He's not advocating lockdowns, he is saying they will not happen - but that the economy is basically going to shut down anyway in many sectors and a lot of businesses are going to pay a very heavy price for that.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Omicron is like an oncoming megastorm everyone in its path gets fucked. I'm not sure that the media really understand just how infectious it is and how little any lockdowns are going to do to stop it. Boosters are the only way out, anyone trying to say otherwise is selling you a fantasy.
He's not advocating lockdowns, he is saying they will not happen - but that the economy is basically going to shut down anyway in many sectors and a lot of businesses are going to pay a very heavy price for that.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
We urgently need support for people and businesses. It isn't a binary choice of "no lockdown lets go on the piss" or "lockdown nobody goes out". Swathes won't go out anyway as they are sick, someone they live with is sick or they simply don't want to risk it. Its shutdown, not lockdown.
That of course was the opportunity that Lab missed in not attaching a finance demand to the vote this week.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Way higher than that for Omicron, sadly. Remember two doses for Omicron reduces hospitalisations by 65%, for Delta two doses had a 90% reduction in hospitalisations. We're still waiting for three dose data but that should be fairly decent, higher than Delta with two doses. The biggest worries - 2m over 60s who haven't had their third doses and the 4m over 40s who haven't had third doses. That's a lot of potential hospitalisations, for the 2m over 60s alone it could be as many as 150k if they don't hurry up and get their third doses. For the 4m over 40s it could be as high as 100k. That's up 250k hospitalisations we could have prevented entirely if the government had got a move on with boosters instead of hanging around.
Ah yes, no I meant for Covid generally. People who have neither caught it (any variant) nor had even a first vaccine. Omicron does look very scary on the NHS and general sickness front. This is the sense I'm getting. Perhaps it will be No Lockdown for the worst reason - that it won't work. Fingers crossed anyway.
The fact that an intervention doesn't work hasn't apparently been any reason not to do it in the past.
But a full & proper Lockdown has never been done without good reason.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
That's a good question. I'm going to guess around 3m.
Way higher than that for Omicron, sadly. Remember two doses for Omicron reduces hospitalisations by 65%, for Delta two doses had a 90% reduction in hospitalisations. We're still waiting for three dose data but that should be fairly decent, higher than Delta with two doses. The biggest worries - 2m over 60s who haven't had their third doses and the 4m over 40s who haven't had third doses. That's a lot of potential hospitalisations, for the 2m over 60s alone it could be as many as 150k if they don't hurry up and get their third doses. For the 4m over 40s it could be as high as 100k. That's up 250k hospitalisations we could have prevented entirely if the government had got a move on with boosters instead of hanging around.
Ah yes, no I meant for Covid generally. People who have neither caught it (any variant) nor had even a first vaccine. Omicron does look very scary on the NHS and general sickness front. This is the sense I'm getting. Perhaps it will be No Lockdown for the worst reason - that it won't work. Fingers crossed anyway.
In general, yeah about 3-4m without any prior infection or vaccine doses.
In the past week: positives up 19% Testing up 15%.
Is there a degree to which we are picking up lots more cases at the moment due to lots more testing - not least as people LFT before every encounter (presumably this is a massive underestimate - who bothers recording a negative LFT?)
Who records a positive LFT either?
If I get one, I tell my friends I won't be joining them for dinner, and stay home.
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
Yep. They cannot be clearer that 2 jabs or even 2 jabs and recovered still isn't sufficient protection against it. You'd be really unlucky to get really ill, but a small percentage of a very large number is a large number. Add on the wazzocks with no jab at all (hello London!) and some places will be in the shit.
One third of London not vaccinated. Very bad state of affairs.
It's not a third. That number is incorrect and the government has a lot to answer for by using a knowingly wrong denominator. London first doses are about 85% and second doses about 75% and that's with a more transient population than anywhere in the country so the actual number could be higher.
I thought it sounded high. That's good to hear if it's not as bad as that.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Omicron is like an oncoming megastorm everyone in its path gets fucked. I'm not sure that the media really understand just how infectious it is and how little any lockdowns are going to do to stop it. Boosters are the only way out, anyone trying to say otherwise is selling you a fantasy.
He's not advocating lockdowns, he is saying they will not happen - but that the economy is basically going to shut down anyway in many sectors and a lot of businesses are going to pay a very heavy price for that.
What’s your alternative? This is like the Blitz
Lots of houses are going to get bombed. That’s it
Make sure you are well-prepared for the other side. Rishi needs to stop thinking about cutting taxes in 2023 and prioritising instead the financial support of businesses and individuals that are about to encounter very severe difficulties.
Have raised this point before. No one gave an answer. Given how infectious omicron is, is it wise to encourage folk to gather in massive queues for several hours all across the country?
Lets assume we introduce similar restrictions to last Jan. How long for and what are the conditions that would allow them to be removed?
Not heard that being discussed at all, and unlike last year it is not a case of waiting for vaccination (indeed the boosters of the most at risk may be tailing off again by March/April if we are waiting that long).
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
Yep. They cannot be clearer that 2 jabs or even 2 jabs and recovered still isn't sufficient protection against it. You'd be really unlucky to get really ill, but a small percentage of a very large number is a large number. Add on the wazzocks with no jab at all (hello London!) and some places will be in the shit.
One third of London not vaccinated. Very bad state of affairs.
They've had plenty of opportunities to get vaccinated. Everyone else can't be held to ransom by their decision.
Even though it's very probably wrong, London is still almost certainly the least vaxxed part of the country. And the particularly sparsely vaxxed boroughs all seem to be shooting to the top of Malmesbury's charts.
Even though it's very probably wrong, London is still almost certainly the least vaxxed part of the country. And the particularly sparsely vaxxed boroughs all seem to be shooting to the top of Malmesbury's charts.
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
Yep. They cannot be clearer that 2 jabs or even 2 jabs and recovered still isn't sufficient protection against it. You'd be really unlucky to get really ill, but a small percentage of a very large number is a large number. Add on the wazzocks with no jab at all (hello London!) and some places will be in the shit.
And in news of three jabbed. My 43 year old, slim, non-smoking teetotaler friend is still very unwell two weeks in.
How many immune naive people are actually left in the country ?
We have had 11m cases and given 51m first doses. There are 67m of us, so the bounds are 16m and 5m.
Is that 11m confirmed cases, so probably more?
I assume so
Coming at in from the other direction
An estimated 95.3% of the adult population in England, 93.9% in Wales, 91.6% in Northern Ireland and 95.0% in Scotland tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in the week beginning 15 November 2021.
Whitty throwing cold water on the "omicron less severe" line of reasoning.
He is ignoring real world evidence. I simply don't understand why he would do that. He didn't when the news was bad from other countries.
I think I would believe Chris Whitty before someone without his scientific knowledge of the subject
Especially when what he is saying is clear. Previous variants and vaccines reduce hospitalisation rates. That means that people have less severe illness - not dying / going into ICU. But a low percentage of very high numbers infected means you have the same numbers or more who are dying / going into ICU.
So what you're saying is that having say 40,000 cases a day spread throughout the year earlier this year will be reducing the numbers going to ICU this winter? 🤔
Sure - to an extent. But will it prevent Omicron coming back and munching its way through the population? No.
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
It would have been very likely given that they were majority unvaccinated and not previously infected, that's like dry tinder for something as infectious as Omicron. We've got 3-4m in that category at the moment which is a pretty scary thought and ~2m over 60s without a third jab, add another 8-10m non-immunue unvaccinated into the picture and we've got a crisis.
Yep. They cannot be clearer that 2 jabs or even 2 jabs and recovered still isn't sufficient protection against it. You'd be really unlucky to get really ill, but a small percentage of a very large number is a large number. Add on the wazzocks with no jab at all (hello London!) and some places will be in the shit.
One third of London not vaccinated. Very bad state of affairs.
They've had plenty of opportunities to get vaccinated. Everyone else can't be held to ransom by their decision.
You'd probably have to just introduce something like a GBP20 surcharge on NHS treatment for the unvaccinated to get the vast majority of them to get the (free) vaccine anyway. Maybe even a GBP20 repayable surcharge (if you live!).
Did anyone else see the WHO guy, Nabarro, on Sky News?
I have never seen a senior global health official look so shaken and full of foreboding
I have just sold all my shares
I just assumed he was another of your creations?
i really really wish he was. He was, unfortunately, very real and very persuasive
His interview reminded me strongly of an infamous TV interview early in 2020 - I wish I could find it - when this normally sober finance pundit on US morning telly suddenly said, of coronavirus, “this is the worst thing I have ever seen”
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Omicron is like an oncoming megastorm everyone in its path gets fucked. I'm not sure that the media really understand just how infectious it is and how little any lockdowns are going to do to stop it. Boosters are the only way out, anyone trying to say otherwise is selling you a fantasy.
He's not advocating lockdowns, he is saying they will not happen - but that the economy is basically going to shut down anyway in many sectors and a lot of businesses are going to pay a very heavy price for that.
But what can you do? Omicron spreads at a rate 4x faster than Delta. We'd have to close supermarkets, warehouses, anywhere that people can be in the same room together to stop it. Simply, we all need to shop or have shopping delivered and that alone pushes the R well above 1 because of the associated activity.
In the past week: positives up 19% Testing up 15%.
Is there a degree to which we are picking up lots more cases at the moment due to lots more testing - not least as people LFT before every encounter (presumably this is a massive underestimate - who bothers recording a negative LFT?)
Who records a positive LFT either?
If I get one, I tell my friends I won't be joining them for dinner, and stay home.
We did today! It takes three seconds and you should do it.
Have raised this point before. No one gave an answer. Given how infectious omicron is, is it wise to encourage folk to gather in massive queues for several hours all across the country?
No, nor to put all sick people together in one enormous building and call it a hospital, but what else are you gonna do?
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Omicron is like an oncoming megastorm everyone in its path gets fucked. I'm not sure that the media really understand just how infectious it is and how little any lockdowns are going to do to stop it. Boosters are the only way out, anyone trying to say otherwise is selling you a fantasy.
He's not advocating lockdowns, he is saying they will not happen - but that the economy is basically going to shut down anyway in many sectors and a lot of businesses are going to pay a very heavy price for that.
What’s your alternative? This is like the Blitz
Lots of houses are going to get bombed. That’s it
Make sure you are well-prepared for the other side. Rishi needs to stop thinking about cutting taxes in 2023 and prioritising instead the financial support of businesses and individuals that are about to encounter very severe difficulties.
We could subsidise huge numbers of people to go and dig out coal, very slowly, very inefficiently, too.
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
In reality the UK already has a higher percentage of adults with their boosters than any other major Western nation, thus minimising hospitalisations. At the same time it avoids another lockdown damaging the economy
And the consequences of Johnson's lies and weakness ...
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
Arguably he's at least improving on Omicron vs. the complete shambles that was Alpha and Delta.
But hard to look at what's coming and not think we will need more restrictions. Circuit break before Christmas maybe the best thing we could do from today.
Have raised this point before. No one gave an answer. Given how infectious omicron is, is it wise to encourage folk to gather in massive queues for several hours all across the country?
No, nor to put all sick people together in one enormous building and call it a hospital, but what else are you gonna do?
OK. That's a fair enough response. Pretty much what I reckoned. Just wondered if there was a better answer.
Have raised this point before. No one gave an answer. Given how infectious omicron is, is it wise to encourage folk to gather in massive queues for several hours all across the country?
Yes. Outdoors. In a mask. With social distancing if possible as most people seem to do now instinctively.
In the past week: positives up 19% Testing up 15%.
Is there a degree to which we are picking up lots more cases at the moment due to lots more testing - not least as people LFT before every encounter (presumably this is a massive underestimate - who bothers recording a negative LFT?)
Who records a positive LFT either?
If I get one, I tell my friends I won't be joining them for dinner, and stay home.
We did today! It takes three seconds and you should do it.
Yes. We've been uploading all of ours positive and negative for ages. On the website, click a few buttons, scan the QR code, submit.
Comments
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
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What Chris Whitty just said doesn’t make any sense. Yes a high number of South Africans will have built up immunity from previous waves. But so have we. Surely that supports the idea that this strain will be “less severe” than previous strains, at least for those who have had it.
The peak shows 440.5k hits per minute generated by close to 100k people concurrently browsing the website + API users.
Zero failures... not one server-side error. My job's done here. 😶🌫️🙋🏻 https://t.co/9Spouws3EI
Trying to pick my way through the hyperbole jungle on today's developments - the sentiment among my work colleagues last week was the loss of the team Christmas lunch was a small price to pay if it meant spending Christmas with loved ones and/or family could be preserved.
The economic cost of that caution is being felt in hospitality and other sectors - Mrs Stodge, in London today, reported it very quiet. After last year, the desire of individuals and families to meet on Christmas Day is so powerful anything which risks it is not going to be countenanced thus the decimation of the pre-Christmas social round.
As PB has become the rest home for statisticians, data analysts, epidemiologists and virologists (it would seem), we are now blessed with a plethora of "information" about all of which I'm more than a little sceptical.
I continue to struggle with all the versions of the truth out there.
My wife has just said that we will keep ourselves to ourselves, apart from our family on Christmas Day and as she is my official spokesperson I agree !!!!!
And to be honest I think I've sometimes "won" an argument where I actually had a weak case among non-committed people because my opponent shouted and I didn't.
Anyway i shall continue to go out and about and lead a covid unaffected life and just wish others would to. Get your jabs/boosters and just forget about it is my advice
We're looking at 200k cases a day fairly quickly if this exponential curve keeps going. Then peak, then drop back. A short sharp shock wave. Would we have added the few million cases we had in the "exit wave" on top of the spike we face without the "exit wave"? Maths suggests that would be unlikely.
Competition Update:
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I have never seen a senior global health official look so shaken and full of foreboding
I have just sold all my shares
Whitty seemed flat and unconvincing. Although it probably looks okay in transcript, he didn’t sell it with his eyes to room or camera I thought, Maybe tired and weary. In q&a There were so many questions politically and medically side stepped today. 😕
I disagree with OGH in that in my opinion Boris definitely gets a rally round the flag electoral boost from the Covid War pressers and speeches this week.
(Does the G in OGH stand for Grandad?)
Dr David Nabarro from the @WHO issues a strong warning about the Omicron variant, saying it's "vital" we reduce its spread as it's likely to get "extremely serious in the next two weeks".
https://trib.al/vu0J0ow https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1471185321329143821/video/1
So it can still kill or hospitalise you, but its a lower percentage risk than it would have been otherwise. The reason why its not "less severe" overall is that so many people are going to be infected in a short time than a small percentage of a very large number is also a large number.
Its not difficult. A large percentage of a smaller number, and a small percentage of a larger number can be the same number.
The UK looks to be heading for the worst of all worlds: a large number of cases with the potential to devastate the country’s ability to provide healthcare and to maintain supply chains, and a voluntary, partial lockdown that does a great deal of economic damage without doing much to stem the tide of the Omicron variant.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2021/12/the-uk-is-heading-for-the-worst-of-all-worlds-on-covid-19
And if it IS as virulent as Delta….
Against them, they have HIV/AIDS, poverty, obesity, poor diets, townships, and very low vaccine coverage.
I think it's a wash, personally.
China is totally screwed with its zero covid strategy, isnt it?
We might presume Omicron will work through the outstanding unvaccinated and unprotected adults (which could be 2 million in London alone if the Standard is correct). The problem is while some of the "2 Million" might be young and able to withstand the infection, the worry must be a minority will be much older (many in ethnic communities regrettably) and as you say a much bigger risk of hospitalisation.
While I accept the need to prioritise booster vaccinations (and you've given millions of reasons why this is the case), we should also be trying our hardest to reach those particularly older people who have continued to refuse any vaccine.
Lots of houses are going to get bombed. That’s it
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1471145178933211144
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1471141310358822915
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1469471602433789955
If I get one, I tell my friends I won't be joining them for dinner, and stay home.
Given how infectious omicron is, is it wise to encourage folk to gather in massive queues for several hours all across the country?
Not heard that being discussed at all, and unlike last year it is not a case of waiting for vaccination (indeed the boosters of the most at risk may be tailing off again by March/April if we are waiting that long).
My 43 year old, slim, non-smoking teetotaler friend is still very unwell two weeks in.
Coming at in from the other direction
An estimated 95.3% of the adult population in England, 93.9% in Wales, 91.6% in Northern Ireland and 95.0% in Scotland tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in the week beginning 15 November 2021.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
Presumably based on the tracker testing the ons has been doing since quite soon after the start.
i really really wish he was. He was, unfortunately, very real and very persuasive
His interview reminded me strongly of an infamous TV interview early in 2020 - I wish I could find it - when this normally sober finance pundit on US morning telly suddenly said, of coronavirus, “this is the worst thing I have ever seen”
In reality the UK already has a higher percentage of adults with their boosters than any other major Western nation, thus minimising hospitalisations. At the same time it avoids another lockdown damaging the economy
But hard to look at what's coming and not think we will need more restrictions. Circuit break before Christmas maybe the best thing we could do from today.