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CON ahead in the betting on the eve of North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
    "even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19"

    Is that true? There are a fair number of countries where more than 1% of people have died of Covid, and they certainly didn't get 100% of people infected.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
    My point is more that it’s proper rife right now and the advent of LFTs and isolation rules means you’re not gonna see these cases in the stats. People will keep quiet.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Pro_Rata said:

    Zone 1 London:

    incomplete 13/12: 6272 cases
    6/12: 2289 cases

    Week on week growth: 174% growth (was 138% yesterday).

    Squinting my eyes a lot, I think we might be above the inflection point where Omicron is above 50% and the rate of increase of growth starts slowing in zone 1. But looks like the week on week growth may touch 250% before we get there.

    Meanwhile:
    Yorkshire & Humber:
    Week on week case growth (near complete 11/12 Vs 4/12*) = 4% -> almost all Delta

    * different date used. I'm taking either the last complete date or the incomplete date that gives the highest growth number to assess the growth as early as possible.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited December 2021
    This conference isn't going to go for subtle messaging, is it?


  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    Leon said:

    ‘CDC Director Rochelle Walensky says Omicron appears to have a doubling time of two days.‘

    Just incredible. The virality of OMICRON THE IRRESISTIBLE.

    At the moment Omicron represents about 3% of cases in the USA. But at this pace it will be the dominant American strain by Christmas Day and nearly all cases before New Year.

    Question for viro-historians, has humanity ever encountered a bug like this before? Something so blisteringly transmissible? It renders lockdowns near irrelevant, for good or ill

    Omicron will have fully peaked in the UK by the 2nd week in January.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    moonshine said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    Even if it does, I'm not sure how it's avoidable. If we're going to experience Omicron it's probably better to have a short and sharp snap that 6 months of lockdown.
    How many deaths do you estimate this "short and sharp snap" would involve?

    Or do you think it's better regardless of how many people would die?
    Children believe that their parents can always make everything ok and will always look after them. When those children grow up, some believe the same about God, others believe the same about government.
    Does that mean you have no idea how many people will die either?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    Surprisingly it isn't, or not completely. Lockdown skeptics (for Omicron) are spread quite evenly across the spectrum - but AntiLockdowners, the breed, ie those agitating strongly against it from the get go, skew heavily right wing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    *off topic hair styling
    This isn’t me of course, but this is very very close to my lob colours now for the holidays. 💇‍♀️

    Wherever I went today there were mirrors and reflections and I kept having to ask myself: who is this girl with the AMAZING hair 😌

    src="https://i.imgur.com/9xy73Tab.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" />

  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
    "even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19"

    Is that true? There are a fair number of countries where more than 1% of people have died of Covid, and they certainly didn't get 100% of people infected.
    How can you know that when it is impossible to know how many contracted it. Many (maybe most) don't show up in official positives numbers.

    My understanding is that the fatality rate is under 0.5% (and lower with vaccination) but I may be out of date on this.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
    Yes, that's why they're posting it anonymously on an online message board, not publishing it in a peer-reviewed journal under their real name.

    Now others can share their equally meaningless anecdotes, and we can all get a slightly improved view of how the world really is! Or we can all selectively believe the stories that fit our pre-conceived narratives, and all learn nothing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    Even if it does, I'm not sure how it's avoidable. If we're going to experience Omicron it's probably better to have a short and sharp snap that 6 months of lockdown.
    Avoidable or not, it would be extremely unpleasant if it were to hammer us over Christmas.

    And if it does hit the UK hard, crushing hospital capacity, then we will see de facto lockdowns anyway, irrespective of government diktat.
    Well that’s a shame coz it’s gonna hammer us over Xmas, like it or not
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    *off topic hair styling
    This isn’t me of course, but this is very very close to my lob colours now for the holidays. 💇‍♀️

    Wherever I went today there were mirrors and reflections and I kept having to ask myself: who is this girl with the AMAZING hair 😌

    src="https://i.imgur.com/9xy73Tab.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" />

    Bit woke like
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    rcs1000 said:

    O/T France 2 new polls - Harris INteractive and Opinion Way

    Harris interactive (fieldwork 10 to 13 December - changes from last week)
    Macron 24 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+3)
    Le Pen 16 (-2)
    Zemmour 15 (+1)
    Melenchon 11 (=)
    Jadot 7 (=)
    Hidalgo 4 (-1)
    All others 6 (-2)

    2nd round Macron 51(-2) / Pecresse 49(+2)
    other scenarios tested: Macron 56/Le Pen 44 and Macron 62/Zemmour 38

    OpinionWay (fieldwork 8-9/12, changes from mid-november)
    Macron 25 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+6)
    Le Pen 16 (-4)
    Zemmour 12 (=)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 8 (=)
    Hidalgo 5 (-1)
    All others 9 (-1)

    No 2nd round question.

    The big event today is Macron's 2 hours-long taped interview that will be in prime-time on the biggest TV channel. Other candidates are furious and denounce what they see as unfairly occupying tv space (obviously they will not get the same opportunity). Maronists counter that the president is not yet a candidate and will just discuss his accomplishments as president without campaigning...
    The discussions regarding a potential left-wing primary are getting nowhere. Thus some are pushing for other candidates to come in the race such as Christiane Taubira (former Justice Minister under Hollande, famous for giving her name to the gay-marriage law and treated as an icon by the left-wing press as a woman from french Guyana). Opinion Way included her in theit poll and she got 2%.

    I think the French Presidential election could be surprisingly entertaining.

    From a "good for Britain" point of view, it's not clear that any of the leading candidates are great. Macron loves a contrived crisis. Pecresse accused the EU of being soft on Britain. Le Pen is ultimately statist. And Zemmour thinks that the D Day landings were an Anglo Saxon invasion of France.
    I personally hope Macron wins purely because it'll annoy all the right people here. I'm sure there'll be some consequence or other I should really care about but I can't be bothered.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    Has anybody heard from Sunetra Gupta recently? I thought we were all supposed to have had it 27 times by now and achieved herd immunity.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
  • rcs1000 said:

    O/T France 2 new polls - Harris INteractive and Opinion Way

    Harris interactive (fieldwork 10 to 13 December - changes from last week)
    Macron 24 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+3)
    Le Pen 16 (-2)
    Zemmour 15 (+1)
    Melenchon 11 (=)
    Jadot 7 (=)
    Hidalgo 4 (-1)
    All others 6 (-2)

    2nd round Macron 51(-2) / Pecresse 49(+2)
    other scenarios tested: Macron 56/Le Pen 44 and Macron 62/Zemmour 38

    OpinionWay (fieldwork 8-9/12, changes from mid-november)
    Macron 25 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+6)
    Le Pen 16 (-4)
    Zemmour 12 (=)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 8 (=)
    Hidalgo 5 (-1)
    All others 9 (-1)

    No 2nd round question.

    The big event today is Macron's 2 hours-long taped interview that will be in prime-time on the biggest TV channel. Other candidates are furious and denounce what they see as unfairly occupying tv space (obviously they will not get the same opportunity). Maronists counter that the president is not yet a candidate and will just discuss his accomplishments as president without campaigning...
    The discussions regarding a potential left-wing primary are getting nowhere. Thus some are pushing for other candidates to come in the race such as Christiane Taubira (former Justice Minister under Hollande, famous for giving her name to the gay-marriage law and treated as an icon by the left-wing press as a woman from french Guyana). Opinion Way included her in theit poll and she got 2%.

    I think the French Presidential election could be surprisingly entertaining.

    From a "good for Britain" point of view, it's not clear that any of the leading candidates are great. Macron loves a contrived crisis. Pecresse accused the EU of being soft on Britain. Le Pen is ultimately statist. And Zemmour thinks that the D Day landings were an Anglo Saxon invasion of France.
    Indeed, it is getting much more entertaining that it was supposed to be... The boring rematch beween Macron and Le Pen (with the same winner) that Macron and his government have tried to install as the only possibility is now seriously challenged.
    As far as future relationships are concerned, difficult to say. Most candidates ignore foreign policy, even EU matters. The fishing rights issue was just an opportunity for Macron grandstanding and his opponents accusing him of weakness. They don't really care about it. The immigration/ Le Touquet agreement is more serious but I suspect that a tougher French law on immigration would decrease the pressure on Channel crossings.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Why do we have to lockdown and not South Africa?
    A good question…
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    I'm awaiting Malmesbury's 1-10 scale graphic for Covid.

    6.5 out of 10 on the oh shit scale last time? What do you reckon a 7 today?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    What does "the NHS collapsing" even look like? We're already cancelling and/or delaying its services by the bucketload. Wait times for A&E are what, 24 hours in some places? You could argue it already has.
  • Has anybody heard from Sunetra Gupta recently? I thought we were all supposed to have had it 27 times by now and achieved herd immunity.

    There's a piece from her in Telegraph.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    Even if it does, I'm not sure how it's avoidable. If we're going to experience Omicron it's probably better to have a short and sharp snap that 6 months of lockdown.
    Avoidable or not, it would be extremely unpleasant if it were to hammer us over Christmas.

    And if it does hit the UK hard, crushing hospital capacity, then we will see de facto lockdowns anyway, irrespective of government diktat.
    Again, I'm just not sure I see any other way around it. Omicron just seems far too transmissible to contain. How do you keep a country functioning if it can transmit in warehouses with mask wearing as standard, or in food packing/preparation places?

    It's possible that we could see self imposed restrictions by the people, in which case that's individuals making their own risk assessment.

    There's really only one way out of Omicron and it's a shame that it didn't hit 2 months down the line when everyone was boosted but we are where we are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
  • Has anybody heard from Sunetra Gupta recently? I thought we were all supposed to have had it 27 times by now and achieved herd immunity.

    Is Alistair Hames still doing his graphs and awesome trendlines?

    Disappointed @Malmesbury didn't follow the great man's style.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    edited December 2021
    If the Tories win in NS, it might be down to postal votes cast for the Conservative candidate before the Borishambles.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,546
    Leon said:

    Well well well


    ‘Wuhan lab leak 'now the most likely origin of Covid', MPs told
    Dr Alina Chan says there is also a risk that Covid-19 is an engineered virus
    By
    Sarah Knapton,
    SCIENCE EDITOR
    15 December 2021 • 12:46pm


    A laboratory leak is now the more likely origin of Covid, MPs have heard, because after two years of searching an animal host has never been found.’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

    Isn't that what she's been arguing since April -
    why the "Well well well" ?

    (I can't read the paywalled piece - is there new evidence ?)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    *off topic hair styling
    This isn’t me of course, but this is very very close to my lob colours now for the holidays. 💇‍♀️

    Wherever I went today there were mirrors and reflections and I kept having to ask myself: who is this girl with the AMAZING hair 😌

    src="https://i.imgur.com/9xy73Tab.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" />

    Bit woke like
    Mind your language, gator 😄 Woke is journey of the psyche, not hair dye

    If Emily Brontë could have gone up on moor in this hairstyle she would have done!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021

    Has anybody heard from Sunetra Gupta recently? I thought we were all supposed to have had it 27 times by now and achieved herd immunity.

    There's a piece from her in Telegraph.
    How do these people still keep getting asked back? Surely she must be discredited by now.

    I mean nobody can see the future, and the level of this mutation has caught everybody out, but her claims were beyond sensible evidence based speculation from the very start. She was claiming stupidly low death rates, when NYC had already surpassed those, that the numbers infected without having a clue were orders of magnitude greater than reality.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Which is what, precisely?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Just rebuild the nightingale wards but make ‘em morgues. Job done
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,546
    Further to the. earlier discussion about dumb criminals...

    this is not legal advice, strictly speaking, but posting a glowing yelp review of the "security service" you hired to kill your sidepiece and her boyfriend is what defense counsel generally calls a "bad fact"
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ugarles/status/1470936688881188864
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    Leon said:

    Just rebuild the nightingale wards but make ‘em morgues. Job done

    Or better still, get your booster!
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    Just rebuild the nightingale wards but make ‘em morgues. Job done

    Burn London. Worked in '66.
  • ChrisfromParisChrisfromParis Posts: 22
    edited December 2021
    blockquote class="Quote" rel="HYUFD">
    rcs1000 said:

    O/T France 2 new polls - Harris INteractive and Opinion Way

    Harris interactive (fieldwork 10 to 13 December - changes from last week)
    Macron 24 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+3)
    Le Pen 16 (-2)
    Zemmour 15 (+1)
    Melenchon 11 (=)
    Jadot 7 (=)
    Hidalgo 4 (-1)
    All others 6 (-2)

    2nd round Macron 51(-2) / Pecresse 49(+2)
    other scenarios tested: Macron 56/Le Pen 44 and Macron 62/Zemmour 38

    OpinionWay (fieldwork 8-9/12, changes from mid-november)
    Macron 25 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+6)
    Le Pen 16 (-4)
    Zemmour 12 (=)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 8 (=)
    Hidalgo 5 (-1)
    All others 9 (-1)

    No 2nd round question.

    The big event today is Macron's 2 hours-long taped interview that will be in prime-time on the biggest TV channel. Other candidates are furious and denounce what they see as unfairly occupying tv space (obviously they will not get the same opportunity). Maronists counter that the president is not yet a candidate and will just discuss his accomplishments as president without campaigning...
    The discussions regarding a potential left-wing primary are getting nowhere. Thus some are pushing for other candidates to come in the race such as Christiane Taubira (former Justice Minister under Hollande, famous for giving her name to the gay-marriage law and treated as an icon by the left-wing press as a woman from french Guyana). Opinion Way included her in theit poll and she got 2%.

    I think the French Presidential election could be surprisingly entertaining.

    From a "good for Britain" point of view, it's not clear that any of the leading candidates are great. Macron loves a contrived crisis. Pecresse accused the EU of being soft on Britain. Le Pen is ultimately statist. And Zemmour thinks that the D Day landings were an Anglo Saxon invasion of France.
    We have a trade deal with the EU now though and France has never been our closest ally anyway, indeed it is probably our least close ally of any G7 nation.

    Pecresse is probably closest to Boris ideologically all things being equal, except on the EU where Zemmour is probably closer to him (albeit otherwise a French nationalist). Le Pen had some things in common with Boris in terms of appealing to the Redwall type voter but maybe less so now



    I don't think that Boris is closer to Draghi or Scholz than to Macron. Indeed those three are quite close and seem to share a dislike of BoJo.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    edited December 2021
    South African medics have been at pains to point out not many patients have needed oxygen, much less ventilation. So what treatment are they getting? Are the government thinking through how to rapidly increase throughout for that treatment?
  • MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Which is what, precisely?
    Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit.

    Its the only way to be sure.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    UK cases scaled to 100K

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    UK Local R

    image
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    What's really stupid is we wasted 10 days from the JCVI decision to Monday to get people queuing up and until today to get rid of the 15 minute observation period. That will have cost us 5m additional booster doses done. There was just such a huge amount of complacency around the booster programme and sadly lots of people are going to pay the price for it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
    You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.

    And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.

    DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    England and Scotland - Third doses remaining to be given

    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,546
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    All the best hypotheses are falsifiable. According to Popper*, you just advanced science :wink:

    (Yep, I'm wildly paraphrasing/over simplifying here, don't jump on me, philosophers)
    Very much to @TOPPING 's credit - other people on PB could learn from his/her example.
    Happy to be wrong all day every day...
    Not for nothing that Popper's classic book is called 'Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge'.

    However, that doesn't mean that scientists can't develop their ideas any way they like, such as on PB, and Feyerabend would approve. So long as they are formally testable.

    Though it is VERY frowned on to change the terms of one's hypothesis (e.g. changing the sample population, or one's definitions) after doing the experiment and finding that the data don't support it. Politely called fiddling, or, on PB. moving the goalposts.
    Subgroup analysis. :smile:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Which is what, precisely?
    Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit.

    Its the only way to be sure.
    Sometimes I wonder whether that's what's Chris is suggesting...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Stocky said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
    "even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19"

    Is that true? There are a fair number of countries where more than 1% of people have died of Covid, and they certainly didn't get 100% of people infected.
    How can you know that when it is impossible to know how many contracted it. Many (maybe most) don't show up in official positives numbers.

    My understanding is that the fatality rate is under 0.5% (and lower with vaccination) but I may be out of date on this.
    If more than 1% of the population as died of Covid, I think it's reasonable to conclude that the case-fatality rate is above 1%.

    Quite a few US states have had excess mortality above 1% of population, as has Russia, and a number of South American countries.
  • The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

  • MaxPB said:

    What's really stupid is we wasted 10 days from the JCVI decision to Monday to get people queuing up and until today to get rid of the 15 minute observation period. That will have cost us 5m additional booster doses done. There was just such a huge amount of complacency around the booster programme and sadly lots of people are going to pay the price for it.

    I can't believe that they only started sending letters out to ask back the trained volunteers on Monday. That should have been the first thing they did when it was revealed just how many people were going to be needed to be jabbed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
    You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.

    And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.

    DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Chris calm yourself. I have already said that I understand your position. No one will die without medical care.

    What steps would you take to ensure this doesn't happen.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    UK cases summary

    image
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  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Hillary Clinton
    @HillaryClinton
    ·
    1m
    Congratulations to
    @NYCFC
    for bringing home the MLS Cup! You've made New York even prouder of you than usual. Red heartStatue of liberty

    https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1471158964083728388?s=20
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Which is what, precisely?
    If your opinion depends on the answer to that, then you do disagree. Thanks for a kind of answer.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited December 2021
    I just checked into a chichi Shoreditch hotel.
    Put luggage down and sprawled on bed.

    The digital radio at the bedside suddenly piped up with some kind of covid prayer. Lord, grant your people peace. Radio 3 apparently.

    Is this how the world ends?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    UK hospitals

    image
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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    UK deaths

    image
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    moonshine said:

    South African medics have been at pains to point out not many patients have needed oxygen, much less ventilation. So what treatment are they getting? Are the government thinking through how to rapidly increase throughout for that treatment?

    You mean re-opening the nightingales with very thin staffing ratios to act as triage centres for people who don't need more serious treatment?

    Anyway, there is a major city that has already been through this and has cases declining. No sign of health care collapse and excess death was lower than the national average.

    Big rise in cases was exactly what everyone expected and doesn;t change anything.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    The 126 noes are realists.

    The ayes are theatrical fantasists; our strongest line of defence is a vaccine.

    Vaxports and masks apparently make bugger all difference and impose massive civil liberties implications.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    Age related data

    image
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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    The proposals yesterday will achieve the square root of dick all in flattening the curve. And arguably are actually counterproductive, by impacting the capacity of healthcare provision.

    In about 3 mins it’s possible to think up a string of proposals that would achieve more and have a lower economic and social impact.

    Unfortunately we’re governed by preening morons, both executive and legislature.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    jonny83 said:

    I'm awaiting Malmesbury's 1-10 scale graphic for Covid.

    6.5 out of 10 on the oh shit scale last time? What do you reckon a 7 today?

    Reading the Malmesbury Monoliths deffo 7 - with the following guidance to PB “ Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room.” 😂
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
    You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.

    And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.

    DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
    I disagree.

    Many things are more important than controlling the rate of growth of a virus.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Mortimer said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    The 126 noes are realists.

    The ayes are theatrical fantasists; our strongest line of defence is a vaccine.

    Vaxports and masks apparently make bugger all difference and impose massive civil liberties implications.

    "apparently"
  • MaxPB said:

    What's really stupid is we wasted 10 days from the JCVI decision to Monday to get people queuing up and until today to get rid of the 15 minute observation period. That will have cost us 5m additional booster doses done. There was just such a huge amount of complacency around the booster programme and sadly lots of people are going to pay the price for it.

    I agree. Feels like a more somber assessment from you having come down with it yourself. Meanwhile Professor Tim Spector told the today program that Omicrom symptoms are "headaches, sore throat, runny nose, fatigue and sneezing."

    Yep. Got all them. Don't feel brilliant. But Monday's PCR was negative and a LF this lunchtime also negative. Then again Mrs RP displayed similar symptoms at the start and daily negative LFs until she showed positive and symptoms exploded in severity.

    Huzzah :(
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,546
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Which is what, precisely?
    Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit.

    Its the only way to be sure.
    Sometimes I wonder whether that's what's Chris is suggesting...
    But what if you take the virus up with you ... ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    London calling

    image
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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    I have several times recommended (what do I know) that people take a break from this site. @Chris I believe should do just this. His posting and the site I can't believe is having a beneficial effect on him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    Have you seen whan the SA doctor said in July about Covid (Delta) and what she says now.(Omicron)

    Unless we are a different breed than South Africans Omicron has much milder effects than Delta.

    She is a Doctor, she has experienced both waves, she knows what she is talking about.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    maaarsh said:

    moonshine said:

    South African medics have been at pains to point out not many patients have needed oxygen, much less ventilation. So what treatment are they getting? Are the government thinking through how to rapidly increase throughout for that treatment?

    You mean re-opening the nightingales with very thin staffing ratios to act as triage centres for people who don't need more serious treatment?

    Anyway, there is a major city that has already been through this and has cases declining. No sign of health care collapse and excess death was lower than the national average.

    Big rise in cases was exactly what everyone expected and doesn;t change anything.
    Waits for @Malmesbury 's London Hospital admissions chart so you can eat your words.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Why do we have to lockdown and not South Africa?
    A good question…
    And this is the place for answers what’s the good answer
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Which is what, precisely?
    Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit.

    Its the only way to be sure.
    Sometimes I wonder whether that's what's Chris is suggesting...
    But what if you take the virus up with you ... ?
    Or down...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    I just checked into a chichi Shoreditch hotel.
    Put luggage down and sprawled on bed.

    The digital radio at the bedside suddenly piped up with some kind of covid prayer. Lord, grant your people peace. Radio 3 apparently.

    Is this how the world ends?

    Didn't they say that the words guaranteed to strike fear into people from the radio are: "and now for the premier of a new work by a young British composer..."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    The best defence against future pandemics is going to be the ability to manufacture vaccines (raw materials and IP) AND knowledge. We need to pour millions into universities etc on this.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited December 2021
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    It's a good question. Vast majority agree with measures to prevent medical services collapse.

    Problem is, what is "collapse". Hospitalisations multiples more than we have now in January and not close to collapse. Then there are myriad medical protocols around the seriousness to warrant admission through to the system for discharge. I understand that tactics and best practice for treatment has improved as medics become more experienced and knowledgeable. Then we have the questions of "what about the unvaxed". About time QUALY came in too.

    You ask a difficult question and no-one has all the answers.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,873
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Such as?
    Whatever it takes. DO YOU DISAGREE?
    Trouble is at this point we don't know what that is. It could be nothing. Genuinely. Or it could be Chinese style lockdown, with soldiers patrolling the streets. We just don't know.

    We will soon though.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784

    UK Local R

    image

    The RHS here is where to look for the next Omicron explosion locations, especially neighbouring authorities having R starting to increase consistently and in some unison day by day.

    In this respect though the data is still a tad lumpy and didn't convince me yesterday, but starting to look more like Lanarkshire / Lothian / wider Central belt centred Omicron switchover is next - very much in line with the original seeding patterns.
  • What do we reckon Boris will be mumbling at 5pm.....no new restrictions by law, but use common sense, rule of 5, I mean 6, 26, not law, but take it from me, I will be sticking to it, well no I won't, but you should.....

    While Witty says here are the numbers, by the way this plan isn't mine...

    He could do with a script writer.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,546

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
    You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.

    And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.

    DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
    I disagree. Cases aren't relevant. What are relevant are hospitalisations and/or deaths.
    They're rather necessary if you want to work out hospitalisation and/or mortality rates for the infection.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Yes and the vast majority (70% IIRC) would like extra taxes on "wealthier Britons". Just not I presume themselves.

    But fine. We are @Chris. But what is his plan that everyone agrees with.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    maaarsh said:

    moonshine said:

    South African medics have been at pains to point out not many patients have needed oxygen, much less ventilation. So what treatment are they getting? Are the government thinking through how to rapidly increase throughout for that treatment?

    You mean re-opening the nightingales with very thin staffing ratios to act as triage centres for people who don't need more serious treatment?

    Anyway, there is a major city that has already been through this and has cases declining. No sign of health care collapse and excess death was lower than the national average.

    Big rise in cases was exactly what everyone expected and doesn;t change anything.
    Yea that’s the sort of thing. If you wanted to undertake responsible “just in case” planning, why aren’t they thinking about that, rather than fighting a culture war over two measures that won’t make a blind bit of difference, namely generalised mask mandates and vaxports?

    Unless it’s all just a charade to get vaccination go and to look good on the 6 O Clock News, safe in the knowledge that things at the macro level will be ok.
  • What do we reckon Boris will be mumbling at 5pm.....no new restrictions by law, but use common sense, rule of 5, I mean 6, 26, not law, but take it from me, I will be sticking to it, well no I won't, but you should.....

    While Witty says here are the numbers, by the way this plan isn't mine...

    He could do with a script writer.....
    But then he loses his bits of paper and starts talking about Peppa Pig....
  • Mortimer said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    The 126 noes are realists.

    The ayes are theatrical fantasists; our strongest line of defence is a vaccine.

    Vaxports and masks apparently make bugger all difference and impose massive civil liberties implications.

    I agree about vaccines but you have to win the argument in the body of public opinion and in that respect it fails
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Mortimer said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    The 126 noes are realists.

    The ayes are theatrical fantasists; our strongest line of defence is a vaccine.

    Vaxports and masks apparently make bugger all difference and impose massive civil liberties implications.

    Good points.

    Are there no doctors or experts you would trust if they suggested you take measures though?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    I just checked into a chichi Shoreditch hotel.
    Put luggage down and sprawled on bed.

    The digital radio at the bedside suddenly piped up with some kind of covid prayer. Lord, grant your people peace. Radio 3 apparently.

    Is this how the world ends?

    Didn't they say that the words guaranteed to strike fear into people from the radio are: "and now for the premier of a new work by a young British composer..."
    Apparently it is coming from Sacred Trinity Church, Salford. It’s still going, but they’re onto hymns for Evensong.

    Was quite eerie.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
    You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.

    And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.

    DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
    I disagree. Cases aren't relevant. What are relevant are hospitalisations and/or deaths.
    They're rather necessary if you want to work out hospitalisation and/or mortality rates for the infection.
    Not really. If the aim is to "protect the NHS" the only metric is hospital utilisation. Otherwise the aim is not simply to protect the NHS, but something more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,546
    TOPPING said:

    I just checked into a chichi Shoreditch hotel.
    Put luggage down and sprawled on bed.

    The digital radio at the bedside suddenly piped up with some kind of covid prayer. Lord, grant your people peace. Radio 3 apparently.

    Is this how the world ends?

    Didn't they say that the words guaranteed to strike fear into people from the radio are: "and now for the premier of a new work by a young British composer..."
    Ed Sheeran ?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    moonshine said:

    South African medics have been at pains to point out not many patients have needed oxygen, much less ventilation. So what treatment are they getting? Are the government thinking through how to rapidly increase throughout for that treatment?

    You mean re-opening the nightingales with very thin staffing ratios to act as triage centres for people who don't need more serious treatment?

    Anyway, there is a major city that has already been through this and has cases declining. No sign of health care collapse and excess death was lower than the national average.

    Big rise in cases was exactly what everyone expected and doesn;t change anything.
    Waits for @Malmesbury 's London Hospital admissions chart so you can eat your words.
    Why don't you take a look at source yourself -

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

    My post is about Johannesburg where cases are now falling - hospitalisations and deaths still rising, but not at a rate with a chance of getting anywhere near previous levels. And that's with far less vaccine cover than us.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
    You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.

    And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.

    DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
    I disagree. Cases aren't relevant. What are relevant are hospitalisations and/or deaths.
    "Cases aren't relevant."

    They are, and they are not. If the aim is to stop the NHS collapsing, then waiting until you get large numbers of hospitalisations is too late due to the lag: by the time you introduce measures, you have a week or two of infections coming through, as we have seen previously in this pandemic.

    Therefore whilst cases are not directly relevant, they're the best measure of what will happen. Now, hopefully Omicron is mild for many more people than Delta. But assuming that - or the extent of its mildness - is a massive gamble for the government.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Has anybody heard from Sunetra Gupta recently? I thought we were all supposed to have had it 27 times by now and achieved herd immunity.

    Im waiting for Heneghan to declare there is no sign of an Omicron wave to make it official.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    The position in the conservative party is surreal from my point of view as I want to see Boris replaced, but not with someone who sides with the rebels who I disagree with so then I have to take Boris's side and just cannot start to understand why the rebels could not foresee that yesterday's proposals were not only proportionate, but also has the full support of the vast majority of the public

    I expect tonight's press conference will be very worrying for ordinary voters and will highlight just how politically naive those 126 noes were yesteday including the lib dems and greens

    The 126 noes are realists.

    The ayes are theatrical fantasists; our strongest line of defence is a vaccine.

    Vaxports and masks apparently make bugger all difference and impose massive civil liberties implications.

    I agree about vaccines but you have to win the argument in the body of public opinion and in that respect it fails
    Winning arguments is called leadership. We don't have any of this in govt at the moment. Terribly sad.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,585
    edited December 2021
    COVID Summary

    - Cases rising. London and Scotland, very strongly - see regional R. In London this is beginning to reach down into the older, more vulnerable groups. This is very regional, the North East is seeing cases flat
    - Hospitalisations rising. Very strongly in London.
    - Deaths flat.

    image
  • Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
    I believe cases have grown but also that the amount of testing has grown also. Do you think that might mean reported cases grow also simply dependent upon the testing.

    Plus what is your plan. Very interested to hear.
    You're talking drivel. The number of tests in the last week is up by 15% on the previous week. The growth rate of Omicron is estimated as a doubling every 2-3 days. And that is quite believable if it has the same intrinsic transmissibility as Delta, and the amount of immune escape indicated by the antibody testing. To suggest that's not really happening is the feeblest evasion.

    And I can't make it any clearer. What's necessary is to do WHATEVER IS NECESSARY to control the rate of growth so that the NHS can cope with this, rather than leaving people to die without medical care. That is simple common sense.

    DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE? DO YOU DISAGREE?
    I disagree. Cases aren't relevant. What are relevant are hospitalisations and/or deaths.
    Yes and no. Yes that we're trying to stop the NHS collapsing. No that someone with Covid who doesn't need the hospital is still going to be out of circulation for a bit as are all the people they live with.

    Even if its really really mild with regards to needing Intensive Care, we're still going to shutdown the economy by people dropping with it - and won't need lockdown as it will already have happened by itself.

    And the concern the powers that be has is that a milder variant puts a lower percentage in the hospital. But if the number infected is off the chart then that's still a lot of people.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I just checked into a chichi Shoreditch hotel.
    Put luggage down and sprawled on bed.

    The digital radio at the bedside suddenly piped up with some kind of covid prayer. Lord, grant your people peace. Radio 3 apparently.

    Is this how the world ends?

    Didn't they say that the words guaranteed to strike fear into people from the radio are: "and now for the premier of a new work by a young British composer..."
    Ed Sheeran ?
    I was thinking more Radio 3.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    What would you do? You have been asked this repeatedly but if you have answered I must have missed it.

    Tell us what restrictions you favour.
    As I said and you were apparently unable to understand (or perhaps read), whatever it takes to try to prevent the NHS collapsing and people dying without medical care.

    Are you saying that we shouldn't try to prevent the NHS collapsing? By implication that seems to be the opinion of many here.
    OK we're getting there. So no one is allowed to die of Covid. Is that what you're after? How would you achieve that.
    The tortuous way this troll avoids a) saying what he would do and/or b) putting his money where his very big sanctimonious mouth is is truly breathtaking.
    Is @Chris a troll? The vast majority of the public would agree with him and disagree with you? ;)
    Yes but they are not all bright like our Chris. Many dunderheads of the NHS national religion type. Ask them whether they would double the NHS budget overnight and they would say yes. Then ask them whether they would double it again and they would say yes ...

    Need to be careful with argumentum ad populum.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    jonny83 said:

    I'm awaiting Malmesbury's 1-10 scale graphic for Covid.

    6.5 out of 10 on the oh shit scale last time? What do you reckon a 7 today?

    He's in a bind like Boris. He needs to raise it to show he's on top of things. But if he does he'll really annoy his backbenchers, ie the PB "It's much ado about nothing" crowd.
This discussion has been closed.