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My search to try to find a value North Shropshire bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    TOPPING said:

    If you have a sore throat and lose your sense of taste and smell in the forest in the middle of the night do you have Omicron.

    No, but Omicron has YOU!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    IshmaelZ said:

    No, don't be silly. The religious bods they retain are bishops and rabbis and similar. The fault is with them, not the beeb.
    Anne Atkins is, nevertheless, always the stand out most dire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    Private schools in Scotland set to lose lucrative tax break from next year

    Independent schools will soon lose their ability to claim charity relief on non-domestic business rates.

    Private schools will lose a lucrative tax break next year after confirmation by the SNP/Green Government.

    Fettes College, which educated former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, charges over £36,000 a year for boarding.

    Gordonstoun, the alma mater of Princes Charles, rakes in over £40,000 a year to board senior pupils.

    Posh Merchiston Castle school in Edinburgh also charges over £30,000 for some of their pupils.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/private-schools-scotland-set-lose-25686958

    Which just means they will have to offer fewer scholarships and bursaries and become even more exclusive only to children of the rich. Yet another own goal by Sturgeon
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,564

    Surely the first thing that needs to be done here is clarify what per day means?

    New cases or people currently infected?
    I'm saying 125k new infections per day at current of which 50k per day are being picked up by testing.

    I'm thinking peak might be a tad above 200k infections per day being picked up by testing, this being held down a touch by different regions peaking their quite rapid waves at different times.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Stocky said:

    Have we? I didn't know that. Goodness, my daughter did one this morning before school and the quantity of stuff; the swab sticks, trays, sachets, bags - all non-biodegradable and going to landfill.
    Yep, and now one full box of the things (seven, with one used every day) can be used by the double-jabbed to dodgy contact self-isolation requirements, the demand for the things will soar. Hence the ordering website having run out of them yesterday.

    Billions and billions of extra little pieces of plastic absolutely everywhere.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    HYUFD said:

    Which just means they will have to offer fewer scholarships and bursaries and become even more exclusive only to children of the rich. Yet another own goal by Sturgeon
    Nonsense. They are already exclusive and it is a clear waste of taxpayers' money, unjustifiable when so many other businesses pay in full.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    IshmaelZ said:

    Or you could test a representative sample?
    Difficult to get a truly representative sample I expect. But yes it's the best we have as an estimate of total prevalence.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    NHS numbers and number formats have their own wikipedia page. There does not seem to be any scope for NHS numbers starting with birthdays or any dates.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_number
    Ah, so the Scottish system is different. Glad to see that it includes a check digit. Don't mention on twitter that it includes a gender digit.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Health_Service_Central_Register_(Scotland)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    IanB2 said:

    Anne Atkins is, nevertheless, always the stand out most dire.
    Is Clifford Longley still going? He would usually have me throwing things at the radio back in my R4-listening days.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Difficult to get a truly representative sample I expect. But yes it's the best we have as an estimate of total prevalence.
    Well, it's not like the theory is not reasonably well understood. The ONS have been testing the same set of people for a couple of years now should be able to tell us the answer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    IshmaelZ said:

    No, don't be silly. The religious bods they retain are bishops and rabbis and similar. The fault is with them, not the beeb.
    Thought for the Day today was by Jayne Manfredi who is just a liberal lay preacher in line with BBC speak not even a full time minister let alone a bishop or rabbi.

    The problem with it today is it is not religious enough

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0b9ppdc
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Which just means they will have to offer fewer scholarships and bursaries and become even more exclusive only to children of the rich. Yet another own goal by Sturgeon
    Or prices go up, some students leave and state schools have more pupils to teach.

    It's worth saying it's a clearcut anomaly though because State schools generally pay non-domestic business rates, private ones receive relief - so you can see why its going to go.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Nonsense. They are already exclusive and it is a clear waste of taxpayers' money, unjustifiable when so many other businesses pay in full.
    No, absolutely justifiable and expanding opportunity and access to some of the best schools in the country benefiting us all in the long run. Of course leftwingers like you hate it as you hate choice in education but who cares, as a conservative I obviously don't and in England at least there will be no following of the SNP line by this Conservative government
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    HYUFD said:

    Which just means they will have to offer fewer scholarships and bursaries and become even more exclusive only to children of the rich. Yet another own goal by Sturgeon
    At this juncture we have to ask why, if the Scottish Government has such a downer on private education, it doesn't simply nationalise all these institutions and be done with it?

    It'd certainly be an interesting experiment. If much of the problem with the governing class really is that it's full of incompetent and entitled public school wankers (e.g. Cameron and Johnson,) then bringing down the public schools could have very positive long-term effects.

    (I've no great interest in the private education debate anywhere, never mind in Scotland, BTW. Just wondering.)
  • pigeon said:

    Yep, and now one full box of the things (seven, with one used every day) can be used by the double-jabbed to dodgy contact self-isolation requirements, the demand for the things will soar. Hence the ordering website having run out of them yesterday.

    Billions and billions of extra little pieces of plastic absolutely everywhere.
    Billions, or at least millions, of pieces of plastic mainly in landfill where it is not much of a concern. The trick is not to take your used test kits on holiday then hurl them into the Pacific Ocean, natural home of the plastic waste problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    If that happens it only proves that their commitment to charitable aims is only skin-deep. They're not charities, they're mechanisms for entrenching privilege and inequality. Well done to the Scottish government.
    No, they are amongst the best schools in the world.

    However no surprise a left liberal like you is desperate to congratulate the SNP given Starmer would jump into bed with them straight away if he needed SNP support to form a government in 2023/24
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    eek said:

    Or prices go up, some students leave and state schools have more pupils to teach.

    It's worth saying it's a clearcut anomaly though because State schools generally pay non-domestic business rates, private ones receive relief - so you can see why its going to go.
    Then taxpayers have to pay even more taxes to support the extra pupils in the state system
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eek said:

    Or prices go up, some students leave and state schools have more pupils to teach.

    It's worth saying it's a clearcut anomaly though because State schools generally pay non-domestic business rates, private ones receive relief - so you can see why its going to go.
    That is outrageous, no question
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    HYUFD said:

    No, they are amongst the best schools in the world.

    However no surprise a left liberal like you is desperate to congratulate the SNP given Starmer would jump into bed with them straight away if he needed SNP support to form a government in 2023/24
    The fact private schools don't pay business rates and state schools do is an anomaly that was going to be fixed years ago.

    Covid just delayed the inevitable for a few years.

    Heck the entire way it's done is designed by HMRC to allow the tax to be collected as soon as a suitably minded Government takes power.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    pigeon said:

    At this juncture we have to ask why, if the Scottish Government has such a downer on private education, it doesn't simply nationalise all these institutions and be done with it?

    It'd certainly be an interesting experiment. If much of the problem with the governing class really is that it's full of incompetent and entitled public school wankers (e.g. Cameron and Johnson,) then bringing down the public schools could have very positive long-term effects.

    (I've no great interest in the private education debate anywhere, never mind in Scotland, BTW. Just wondering.)
    The best state schools in the country were grammar schools, so Labour had to begin the process of getting rid of them. The best state schools in the country are now private schools on the whole, so left liberals then have to get rid of them. Then they would get rid of outstanding church schools and free schools, can't have choice and excellence in education of course can we.

    Then of course the obvious conclusion is to nationalise Marks and Spencer etc, indeed anything which offers the highest quality and just give everyone the bog standard in everything. Standard practice for the left
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Then taxpayers have to pay even more taxes to support the extra pupils in the state system
    I didn't say it's a great plan I pointed out the flaws.

    But if State schools have to pay business rates it's impossible to justify an exception for other schools - although please try to provide a suitable justification for why a private school shouldn't pay Business Rates (I could do with a laugh).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited December 2021
    *media narrative second guessing

    Anyone wondering where the wall to wall negative front pages for Boris are, not to worry, they are coming back. My prediction, Wednesday evenings Front Pages so they are on racks in Shropshire Thursday. Partly due to government ramping panic to get them through Tuesdays votes - they will turn off the ramping and odd numbers they giving out, once Votes out the way.

    It’s just the Daily Mirror and Starmer who want Boris out ? Ha ha. It’s everyone who cares about the Conservative Party and wants to see the Conservative Party Build Back Better from these lows Boris dragging them to, who want Boris out asap. let’s see if I’m right. Wednesday night. 🙂

    PS Santa arrested for not wearing a mask ☹️
  • HYUFD said:

    No, they are amongst the best schools in the world.

    However no surprise a left liberal like you is desperate to congratulate the SNP given Starmer would jump into bed with them straight away if he needed SNP support to form a government in 2023/24
    I'm congratulating them because they've done something I agree with, and I'm not a sad party hack who can't see good in other parties. I wouldn't vote SNP if I lived in Scotland, but I think they're fine. Even the Tory party has some good people left in it, although most of them were chucked out by Johnson or have left in disgust at his corruption, lies and incompetence.
  • HYUFD said:

    Then taxpayers have to pay even more taxes to support the extra pupils in the state system
    Quite happy to pay taxes to give the next generation a good start in life. Not happy to give tax breaks that subsidise an elitist system that hinders meritocracy.
  • eek said:

    I didn't say it's a great plan I pointed out the flaws.

    But if State schools have to pay business rates it's impossible to justify an exception for other schools.
    If there's anomalies then you can fix the anomalies.

    No need to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    45m
    Another query. Keep reading about January lockdown. But if the figure of 200,000 cases yesterday is accurate, based on the analysis cases are doubling every two days, within 19 days every single person in the country will have been infected. So what would lockdown achieve.

    I'm wondering whether the government fear-mongering is designed in part to create at atmosphere which will make the 75, or whatever, Plan B rebels to retreat from voting against.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    HYUFD said:

    Thought for the Day today was by Jayne Manfredi who is just a liberal lay preacher in line with BBC speak not even a full time minister let alone a bishop or rabbi.

    The problem with it today is it is not religious enough

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0b9ppdc
    Weirdly, despite not being religious myself, I absolutely agree with you. If they are going to have thought for the day as a mandatory religious slot then it should be a thought about religion whereas too often it’s purely a usually left wing polemic on some social issue most of the time.

    I find the Rabbis, Sikh and Buddhist contributors they have on are usually very good at melding a religious perspective on an event without it being “political” and I very much enjoy Tim Stanley’s contributions whether I agree with him or not but generally it’s someone having a go from a “progressive” perspective and nothing to do with religion at all - plenty of other slots on Today already cover that……
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    No they’re not.

    North Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands L 47% C 33%
    South C 43% L 35%
    London L 48 C 27

    England L 43% C 35#
    Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13%
    Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21%

    Women L 42% C 30%
    Men L 37% C 33%

    UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%

    (On behalf of ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Survation interviewed 1,218 adults online aged 18+ living in the UK between 10th and 11th December 2021.)
    Although I hesitate to poke the hive...imagine what a different situation it would be if SLab hadn't self-destructed, and there were ~50 more Labour MPs in the Commons. No difference to the Tory majority, of course, but a huge difference to the problem of grinding out an election win.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited December 2021

    Private schools in Scotland set to lose lucrative tax break from next year

    Independent schools will soon lose their ability to claim charity relief on non-domestic business rates.

    Private schools will lose a lucrative tax break next year after confirmation by the SNP/Green Government.

    Fettes College, which educated former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, charges over £36,000 a year for boarding.

    Gordonstoun, the alma mater of Princes Charles, rakes in over £40,000 a year to board senior pupils.

    Posh Merchiston Castle school in Edinburgh also charges over £30,000 for some of their pupils.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/private-schools-scotland-set-lose-25686958

    Sounds like a silly measure that will cost the Scottish Govt, and Scotland, a lot of money overall.

    Savings: 37m.
    Benefit of Independent School Sector to Scotland:
    https://www.scis.org.uk/assets/Uploads/PDFs/Economic-Impact-of-the-Scottish-Council-of-Independent-Schools-final-report-13Apr16.pdf

    All it needs is minor shrinkage, and just the cost of educating the extra pupils will swallow all that, never mind all the other benefits that come from having some diversity in the sector, and public benefits provided.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    *media narrative second guessing

    Anyone wondering where the wall to wall negative front pages for Boris are, not to worry, they are coming back. My prediction, Wednesday evenings Front Pages so they are on racks in Shropshire Thursday. Partly due to government ramping panic to get them through Tuesdays votes - they will turn off the ramping and odd numbers they giving out, once Votes out the way.

    It’s just the Daily Mirror and Starmer who want Boris out ? Ha ha. It’s everyone who cares about the Conservative Party and wants to see the Conservative Party Build Back Better from these lows Boris dragging them to, who want Boris out asap. let’s see if I’m right. Wednesday night. 🙂

    PS Santa arrested for not wearing a mask ☹️

    Santa can now buy beard defender masks. No excuses.

    https://www.thebeardstruggle.com/products/the-beard-defender?campaignid=13935545226&adgroupid=124554890803&term=face mask for beards&gc_id=13935545226&ad_id=534176764977&tmid=534176764977&gclid=Cj0KCQiAnuGNBhCPARIsACbnLzqtkNQWc_sacIIQEiTXip30N_2dCjSahWwsgZNzMESr6BpIjhz4wr8aAkjsEALw_wcB
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited December 2021

    If there's anomalies then you can fix the anomalies.

    No need to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
    They are fixing the anomaly - which is why Scottish private schools now have to pay Business Rates - the anomaly was that state schools paid it, private schools avoided paying it.

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    No, but Omicron has YOU!
    Omicron man, omicron man, doing the things that omicron can.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    I see Middlesbrough now has a direct train service to King's Cross:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:C17654/2021-12-14/detailed#allox_id=0

    3 hours 15 minutes is pretty good.
  • eek said:

    They are fixing the anomaly - which is why Scottish private schools have to pay Business Rates.

    Alternatively you could exempt state schools from NNDR too.

    No need to remove charitable status to fix the anomaly though.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,564
    TOPPING said:

    Great makes sense thanks. Do we think we know how long Omicron has been a "thing" in the UK.
    Iirc, S dropout really wasn't being picked up at all until mid November, perhaps a week or so before it hit the news. So, the initial seed from Southern Africa resulting in community spread (as opposed to an isolated case) was probably in early November and took a week or two to show up sufficiently in the testing stats. It was 0.3% by late November, so around 100-150 cases of S dropout per day. So, 10k now, would represent, very roughly, about 6-7 Omicron doublings since then.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited December 2021
    Morning all.

    I went on the Internet, and I found Annalena and her new aeroplane:



    Can't comment on Photoshop or Not.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257

    Ah, so the Scottish system is different. Glad to see that it includes a check digit. Don't mention on twitter that it includes a gender digit.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Health_Service_Central_Register_(Scotland)
    Yep. Developed ages ago (70s?) I think with the farsighted view of the benefits of being able to link records across different services. when pretty much everything was still on paper. Still beyond what we have in England as it's been embedded for so long (which means better epidemiology research is possible with Scottish data than English; unfortunately, with the Scotland population being much smaller, the research benefits are only really there for more common conditions)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited December 2021

    Alternatively you could exempt state schools from NNDR too.

    No need to remove charitable status to fix the anomaly though.
    Really? since when did you become an expert on Business Rates - the second hand details I get from my daughter working for the VOA are continually interesting.

    It's worth saying that Boris could (were he to care enough) implement your solution and impose it on Scotland - why don't you see if he will do so.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    boulay said:

    Weirdly, despite not being religious myself, I absolutely agree with you. If they are going to have thought for the day as a mandatory religious slot then it should be a thought about religion whereas too often it’s purely a usually left wing polemic on some social issue most of the time.

    I find the Rabbis, Sikh and Buddhist contributors they have on are usually very good at melding a religious perspective on an event without it being “political” and I very much enjoy Tim Stanley’s contributions whether I agree with him or not but generally it’s someone having a go from a “progressive” perspective and nothing to do with religion at all - plenty of other slots on Today already cover that……
    To add to the above I find the sport slot on Today becoming another “issues” slot instead of, you know, Sport.

    It constantly finds some sort of “issue” to ram down the listener’s ears and insists on pushing these issues ahead of what people want to know - the sports results and news.

    And if they have another slot on Britney Fucking Spears “freedom”…….

    Rant over, sorry…….
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    Stocky said:

    Have we? I didn't know that. Goodness, my daughter did one this morning before school and the quantity of stuff; the swab sticks, trays, sachets, bags - all non-biodegradable and going to landfill.
    I'll predict that 3/5 to 2/3 of adults will be boosterised by new year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,714
    eek said:

    But you don't know how you would have felt if you had had the booster a week earlier having not been aware you were had had Covid?

    My point is that 1 reason why people may feel ill after having the jab is because they are currently (and unknowingly) fighting a Covid (or other) infection.
    That possible, but at a guess I suspect it's more to do with the great variability in individual immune response.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,400

    Cicero is clearly not a fan of the ICONIC Daily Mail, despite their carefully curated coverage of an indulgent PARTY hosted by Jacob Rees Mogg, where the bubbles flowed, as did rumours about a scientist who should have been getting on with the job researching Omicron, but was actually GETTING IT ON and intimate with KATIE PRICE instead.
    Turn the fire hoses on them....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    Really? since when did you become an expert on Business Rates - the second details I get from my daughter working for the VOA are continually interesting.
    Not within the existing system.

    I'm saying if you're going to change the law to remove charitable status from private schools due to this anomaly, you could just as easily change the law to grant it to state schools - or to exempt state schools from NNDR.

    I don't like NNDR and think it should be abolished preferably anyway. Pernicious tax.

    EDIT: Just saw your edit about Scotland. I see no reason why the government should interfere on a devolved matter with Scotland.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    IanB2 said:

    Nonsense. They are already exclusive and it is a clear waste of taxpayers' money, unjustifiable when so many other businesses pay in full.
    I think they probably aren't, given that Scottish Indy Schools spend £30m a year on bursaries, means tests and not means tested, and that many Indy schools are about specialisms the state can't provide.

    Not that Scottish Gov has much of a record of encouraging diversity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited December 2021

    Quite happy to pay taxes to give the next generation a good start in life. Not happy to give tax breaks that subsidise an elitist system that hinders meritocracy.
    Rubbish, it is you advocating reducing access to our best schools hindering meritocracy.

    I believe in choice in education as much as anything else. Even if you got rid of every private school in the country it would do nothing for meritocracy, private school parents would send their children to the best state schools in the most expensive suburbs or commuter belt towns in the country.

    Bright kids from council estates would go to bog standard comps in the inner cities or poor ex industrial or seaside towns when they might have a chance of getting a scholarship to a private school now
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    Not within the existing system.

    I'm saying if you're going to change the law to remove charitable status from private schools due to this anomaly, you could just as easily change the law to grant it to state schools - or to exempt state schools from NNDR.

    I don't like NNDR and think it should be abolished preferably anyway. Pernicious tax.

    EDIT: Just saw your edit about Scotland. I see no reason why the government should interfere on a devolved matter with Scotland.
    They are not removing charitable status - the change is that charitable status no longer provides an exemption.

    As I said its actually something the UK government could fix were they bothered to do so and wanted to score some points.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    They are not removing charitable status - the change is that charitable status no longer provides an exemption.

    As I said its actually something the UK government could fix were they bothered to do so and wanted to score some points.
    Correct.

    It is a change costing the sector a little under 10% of turnover if I counted it correctly.

    Numbers wrong, the £37m is a 5 year figure.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50665658

    So about 1-2% of turnover. afaics

    Which will be recovered I imagine by fees up and bursaries / public benefit down.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    Not within the existing system.

    I'm saying if you're going to change the law to remove charitable status from private schools due to this anomaly, you could just as easily change the law to grant it to state schools - or to exempt state schools from NNDR.

    I don't like NNDR and think it should be abolished preferably anyway. Pernicious tax.

    EDIT: Just saw your edit about Scotland. I see no reason why the government should interfere on a devolved matter with Scotland.
    NNDR raises £25bn a year - where else would the money come from?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Sean_F said:

    What we need is a good Redemptorist preacher on Thought for the Day, like Father Joseph Furniss:

    Ps. xx. Thou shalt make him as an oven of fire in the time of thy anger.

    You are going to see again the child about which you read in the Terrible Judgement, that it was condemned to hell. See! It is a pitiful sight. The little child is in this red hot oven. Hear how it screams to come out. See how it turns and twists itself about in the fire. It beats its head against the roof of the oven. It stamps its little feet on the floor of the oven. You can see on the face of this little child what you see on the faces of all in hell -- despair, desperate and horrible! The same law which is for others is also for children. If children, knowingly and willingly, break God's commandments, they must also be punished like others. This child committed very bad mortal sins, knowing well the harm of what it was doing, and knowing that hell would be the punishment. God was very good to this child. Very likely God saw that this child would get worse and worse, and would never repent, and so it would have to be punished much more in hell. So God, in His mercy, called it out of the world in its early childhood.
    That would certainly wake people up!
  • eek said:

    They are not removing charitable status - the change is that charitable status no longer provides an exemption.

    As I said its actually something the UK government could fix were they bothered to do so and wanted to score some points.
    Is that applying to all charities or just education-related charities?

    One of the reasons for the explosion of charity stores on the High Street is the NNDR exemption.
  • HYUFD said:

    Which just means they will have to offer fewer scholarships and bursaries and become even more exclusive only to children of the rich. Yet another own goal by Sturgeon
    The more exclusive these institutions become, the more vulnerable they become. Think about it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Stocky said:

    I'm wondering whether the government fear-mongering is designed in part to create at atmosphere which will make the 75, or whatever, Plan B rebels to retreat from voting against.
    I think it's designed to create a victory narrative for the government. Declare Omicron an impending disaster. Speed-up boosters to avert disaster. There is no disaster. Christmas is saved. Declare victory over Omicron!

    Added benefit that in the now unlikely case that Omicron does cause a disaster, at least they can credibly claim they did everything they reasonably could.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319
    Can somebody who owns a briefcase explain what this means to a complete financial illiterate (me).

    https://techcrunch.com/2021/12/13/harley-davidsons-ev-motorcycle-unit-livewire-to-go-public-via-spac/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Morning, campers.

    What's the prediction for today's omicron new cases?

    I'm going for 305,671!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629

    Is that applying to all charities or just education-related charities?

    One of the reasons for the explosion of charity stores on the High Street is the NNDR exemption.
    Just independent schools, with aiui an exception for those which work with special needs.

    So messy.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Stocky said:

    Hope you are right. If 1.5m in UK are currently infected with Covid the hospitalisation rate (and even the symptomatic rate) is tiny.
    Indeed.
  • mwadams said:

    Although I hesitate to poke the hive...imagine what a different situation it would be if SLab hadn't self-destructed, and there were ~50 more Labour MPs in the Commons. No difference to the Tory majority, of course, but a huge difference to the problem of grinding out an election win.
    Imagine a world without Jim Murphy, Gordon Brown and Wee Dougie? We’re living the dream.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    Correct.

    It is a change costing the sector a little under 10% of turnover if I counted it correctly.

    The more exclusive these institutions become, the more vulnerable they become. Think about it.
    Yep.

    Step one on a campaign to make them more exclusive, and eventually close them all.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IIRC there wasn't anything about 'hating Scotland' was there? Might have been something about Scots, of course!
    Elizabeth was besties with Mary, Queen of Scots….
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257
    eek said:

    NNDR raises £25bn a year - where else would the money come from?
    Well, that £350m a week that we're saving comes to ~£18bn. Combined with other Brexit benefits, surely we could do it now? :innocent:
  • MattW said:

    Sounds like a silly measure that will cost the Scottish Govt, and Scotland, a lot of money overall.

    Savings: 37m.
    Benefit of Independent School Sector to Scotland:
    https://www.scis.org.uk/assets/Uploads/PDFs/Economic-Impact-of-the-Scottish-Council-of-Independent-Schools-final-report-13Apr16.pdf

    All it needs is minor shrinkage, and just the cost of educating the extra pupils will swallow all that, never mind all the other benefits that come from having some diversity in the sector, and public benefits provided.
    Ho ho.

    Yes, I feel your pain.
  • So we must up to 10bn infected and 1 million in hospital in the UK according to the government now....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    HYUFD said:

    Rubbish, it is you advocating reducing access to our best schools hindering meritocracy.

    I believe in choice in education as much as anything else. Even if you got rid of every private school in the country it would do nothing for meritocracy, private school parents would send their children to the best state schools in the most expensive suburbs or commuter belt towns in the country.

    Bright kids from council estates would go to bog standard comps in the inner cities or poor ex industrial or seaside towns when they might have a chance of getting a scholarship to a private school now
    Just as a matter of interest, what do you define as a 'best' school? Is it one which takes disadvantaged children and give them a good chance in life. or one which takes already 'advantaged' children and gives the access to a similar circle in later life?
  • MattW said:

    Yep.

    Step one on a campaign to make them more exclusive, and eventually close them all.
    You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment.
  • Morning, campers.

    What's the prediction for today's omicron new cases?

    I'm going for 305,671!

    I think you might be slightly over stating it so I project 291,146. Or maybe 3,835!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    The more exclusive these institutions become, the more vulnerable they become. Think about it.
    On the way to expanding the bog standard comprehensive for the majority as is the goal of the SNP and the leftwing of the Labour Party while restricting choice for the majority or bright children who might get a scholarship. The only escape route left for wealthy parents who can still send their children to the best state schools in the most expensive suburbs
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited December 2021

    Ho ho.

    Yes, I feel your pain.
    The numbers are quite clear.

    In due course they will reap their whirlwind.

    I see that in Sweden independent schools are funded by the local council.
    https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-policies/eurydice/content/organisation-private-education-80_en

    Far less ideological , which is far better.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I went on the Internet, and I found Annalena and her new aeroplane:



    Can't comment on Photoshop or Not.

    Well the last government did order new planes to replace the old ones. I'm not sure the foreign minister getting on a government plane to travel abroad on government business is particularly noteworthy. Maybe she should have set an example by getting the train.
  • eek said:

    NNDR raises £25bn a year - where else would the money come from?
    If it were up to me? VAT. That raises £135bn a year.

    If it were up to me I'd abolish NNDR and National Insurance. I'd slimline the tax system so all income-related taxes are on income tax (thus removing the exemption on NI from unearned income) and have business-related taxes on VAT.

    If a business is successful it will generate more VAT.
  • Have we covered this? Some excellent preliminary data from South Africa on the real-world impact of Omicron by vaccination status:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470684351151157252
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,169
    HYUFD said:

    No, absolutely justifiable and expanding opportunity and access to some of the best schools in the country benefiting us all in the long run. Of course leftwingers like you hate it as you hate choice in education but who cares, as a conservative I obviously don't and in England at least there will be no following of the SNP line by this Conservative government
    “Benefiting us all”

    Lol
  • As if a Christmas song by Ed Sheeran and Elton John wasn't enough to put your teeth on edge already, its lyrics contain the intolerable sin against grammar of "it's Christmas time for you and I." Jesus! We truly are living in an age of idiocy. Somebody pass me the launch codes.
    Indeed, awful cultural appropriation of the Rastafari I!
  • Eabhal said:

    Fed up with middle aged/older people ringing up Radio Scotland:

    "I was at the pub and a bunch of students came in. Given how many young people have Covid, I really wish they would stay at home"

    "On a packed train to the football. Made me feel really vulnerable".

    If people are worried enough to call in and complain, I'd gently suggest they take the initiative and stay at home themselves.

    Young people have given too much already. See the SG report out today on mental health.

    +1

    (By the way, saw your comment on “safer people”. Fairy nuff. Replace with “Sober people are less likely to die a distressing, long-drawn-out death.” That better?)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Anne Atkins is, nevertheless, always the stand out most dire.
    The woman this morning was appalling - utter drivel.

    I get an email in my inbox called Christian Art. Bear with me. It usually references some Bible story - not the most obvious ones either - but its real value is that it accompanies this with some painting or other artwork based on the story, often very loosely. And not just 15th century stuff either. But more modern art as well.

    And that is its value. If you are even vaguely interested in art you get to see a new painting every day, are told something about it and where to go and see it in the flesh, if you want. Plus you can read the Biblical reference if you want.

    Radio 4 could usefully use the time allocated for Banality of the Day to telling people about all this lovely art. Who knows? It might inspire artists of the future or even just teach them something about our cultural heritage.

    Anything than the "I was shopping for peas and I wondered what would Jesus do" bollocks we get.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    If it were up to me? VAT. That raises £135bn a year.

    If it were up to me I'd abolish NNDR and National Insurance. I'd slimline the tax system so all income-related taxes are on income tax (thus removing the exemption on NI from unearned income) and have business-related taxes on VAT.

    If a business is successful it will generate more VAT.
    VAT rate 30% (35% with employee NI as well) - that would go down well.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited December 2021
    Key finding from that SA study:

    1. 2 doses of Pfizer’s jab makes vaccinated people 70% less likely to get hospitalised vs. unvaccinated people

    2. This is lower than 93% protection the jab gave in SA’s Delta wave (93%)

    3. Less protection for older cohorts (but maybe because they were jabbed earlier)

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I went on the Internet, and I found Annalena and her new aeroplane:

    What the fuck were you searching for?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    Charles said:

    Elizabeth was besties with Mary, Queen of Scots….
    What's that to do with the 39 Articles? Couldn't even see anything about France, let alone Scotland.
  • “Benefiting us all”

    Lol
    Should we be levying NNDR on Oxfam charity stores? Or British Heart Foundation ones? Or local Hospice ones?

    They only benefit some people too.
  • MattW said:

    The numbers are quite clear.

    In due course they will reap their whirlwind.

    Nah. The Nordic countries do just fine without these preposterous institutions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    I see the Economist's Health Editor has reported on a tele-conference that's just taken place with private healthcare experts in South Africa. Summarising, the key points about Omicron appear to be: a) It is less severe (estimated 29% less so), but b) both vaccines and previous infection is less effective at preventing infection/re-infection with the new variant, c) the combination of greater transmissibility and lower vaccine resistance presents a risk of more cases needing healthcare intervention despite its lower severity; in particular children are estimated 20% more likely to be hospitalised with the new variant.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,169

    Should we be levying NNDR on Oxfam charity stores? Or British Heart Foundation ones? Or local Hospice ones?

    They only benefit some people too.
    I don’t really care about the tax status of private schools, I just find HYUFD’s claim that they “benefit us all” hilarious.
  • eek said:

    VAT rate 30% (35% with employee NI as well) - that would go down well.

    25% should more than do it for NNDR.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited December 2021

    If it were up to me? VAT. That raises £135bn a year.

    If it were up to me I'd abolish NNDR and National Insurance. I'd slimline the tax system so all income-related taxes are on income tax (thus removing the exemption on NI from unearned income) and have business-related taxes on VAT.

    If a business is successful it will generate more VAT.
    I thought Business Rates were up for reform, because the South East squealed so much when theirs were raised to the equivalent level of everybody else's a few years ago when the properties were revalued (?). Or was it abandoned?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    edited December 2021

    Morning, campers.

    What's the prediction for today's omicron new cases?

    I'm going for 305,671!

    Actual confirmed new omicron cases ?

    2207; total count 6920

    In Javid's head ?

    1 million
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    Chris said:

    After reading that Raab gave two rather different estimates today for the number of Omicron hospitalisations - namely 9 and 250 - I'd suggest ignoring anything said by a politician and waiting for something said by a medical or scientific officer preferably in writing, to avoid mistakes.
    Thankfully according to the BBC Raab has now corrected himself: It's 10. "Explaining the discrepancy, he told ITV: "I misheard one of the questions around whether it was hospitalisations of Omicron-related patients or more generally."

    So he thinks there are only 250 people in hospital with COVID-19 "more generally"? When the daily admission rate is about a thousand. God help us.

    I suppose the likely explanation is that it's 250 patients who are suspected of having Omicron but not confirmed.
  • So in the space of 3 posts, its good, bad and indifferent news from SA....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    Dura_Ace said:

    What the fuck were you searching for?
    I think it just appeared. Probably interested in the new German Govt.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    Should we be levying NNDR on Oxfam charity stores? Or British Heart Foundation ones? Or local Hospice ones?

    They only benefit some people too.
    Judging by the behaviour in some charities they should be paying extra tax not getting any sort of advantage. Some of their staff should be having interviews with the police, frankly.
  • So in the space of 3 posts, its good, bad and indifferent news from SA....

    Moderately good news for the UK at least, I think. The two-dose protection against severe illness is still fairly good (although falling off for older cohorts), and we know that a third dose will boost that protection very substantially.
  • HYUFD said:

    Which just means they will have to offer fewer scholarships and bursaries and become even more exclusive only to children of the rich. Yet another own goal by Sturgeon
    Och well, we'll just have to live without the quality of the likes of Prince Andrew and Tony Blair in our public life (or a bit less of it at any rate).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    edited December 2021

    Have we covered this? Some excellent preliminary data from South Africa on the real-world impact of Omicron by vaccination status:

    https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470684351151157252

    So protection of two doses against hospitalisation down to only 60-70% in older age groups versus 93% for the Delta wave? That makes the Omicron wave more severe than the Delta wave, not less, yes?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited December 2021

    25% should more than do it for NNDR.
    Yep - it turns out my NI figures are wrong anyway see https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8513/

    VAT generates £120bn
    NICs £144bn

    I was using the Employer NI figure as the grand total

    VAT without NNDR = 25%
    VAT without NNDR & Employer NI = 36%

    VAT without NNDR & NI = 47%

    As I said the laffer curve kills things quickly which is why it's a bit here and a bit there.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    So we must up to 10bn infected and 1 million in hospital in the UK according to the government now....

    There is life on Mars, and it all has omicron.
  • Miss Cyclefree, Jesus would buy some.

    "Blessed are the peas' makers."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited December 2021

    Och well, we'll just have to live without the quality of the likes of Prince Andrew and Tony Blair in our public life (or a bit less of it at any rate).
    Most of our top doctors, surgeons and lawyers also went to private schools. A large proportion of the rest went to grammar schools
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited December 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    Judging by the behaviour in some charities they should be paying extra tax not getting any sort of advantage. Some of their staff should be having interviews with the police, frankly.
    Many Oxfam shops are full blown businesses with some market domination - such as the specialist bookshop and wedding outlets. So imo yes.

    But the bigger thing is perhaps the effective corporation tax exemption when a business is owned by a charity and donates the profits.

    There's room for reform on Indy Schools, but it needs to be thought through not kneejerk ideology, which is what we get here.
This discussion has been closed.