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The week that the polls turned against the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077
    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Age related data

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    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

    Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

    Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

    Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

    But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/

    The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.
    I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

    We are governed by retarded donkeys, the yflip flop all over except when filling their own pockets , they could not run a bath. We are well and truly fcuked till this lot are tarred and feathered and run out of town.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    Reverse ferret from our very own private Fraser?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    UK COVID summary

    Cases - rising, but some indication of a tail off in the rate of rise.
    Admissions - rising, but slowly. Admissions calculated R is just above 1
    Deaths - flat
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for those who have been identified as immucomprised.

    For a booster, nobody asks for anything.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    I just pro-actively booked on the NHS site. While I was queuing, they let several walk-ups join the queue, despite the notice saying “appointments only”.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    I was.

    Why don't you have it?
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718

    Its amazing that people on here can call a general election from an exit poll and a result from sunderland South but need to wait more than two weeks (and god knows how many more in SA etc ) to realise this virus is weaker than Charles Paultrey

    Did you mean Charles Hawtry?

    If so - he fucked a lot of folks.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different.
    How?

    I'm not doubting you, I just want to be clear. Turning up and being turned away would be gut wrenching, both personally and because that would mean somebody else couldn't get that slot.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    I was.

    Why don't you have it?
    Because I'm not yet 40 and the paperwork is still working through the system.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different.
    How?

    I'm not doubting you, I just want to be clear. Turning up and being turned away would be gut wrenching, both personally and because that would mean somebody else couldn't get that slot.
    It people who have been specially identified for having a weak immune system...

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-vaccine-3rd-dose/

    You won't get turned away for your booster. Initially they just didn't want people jumping the queue, wanted to make sure the very vulnerable got it.

    Now if you can book on the system you won't get turned away. I just had to say my name and that was it.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited December 2021

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for thise who have been identified as immucomprised.
    That's my understanding as well. Those referrals are the extra doses given to people who have a compromised immune system, not the booster doses for everyone else. That group might even receive a fourth dose, as that's something that is being considered now.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for thise who have been identified as immucomprised.
    That's my understanding as well. Those referrals are the extra doses given to people who have a compromised immune system, not the booster doses for everyone else. That group might even receive a fourth dose, as that's something that is being considered now.
    Thank you both. Well, all I can do is go along and see. It did at least let me book.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    Too early to say. But today has been the most optimistic day of the last ten or so

    If my prediction of ~49k deaths over the winter proves to be insanely wrong I will not only gladly eat humble pie I will be grovellingly nice to IanB2, Farooq and kinabalu. For a day. Even tho they are c*nts
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I just have, on @pigeon 's information. Where did you find out, may I ask? It's reassuring if several people are hearing at once.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I just have, on @pigeon 's information. Where did you find out, may I ask? It's reassuring if several people are hearing at once.
    My cousin who works for the NHS.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077
    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I strongly advise this!

    This is how I got my over-50 booster shot about two weeks before most of my peers. I did it on a Saturday as soon as news leaked out
  • Options
    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for thise who have been identified as immucomprised.
    That's my understanding as well. Those referrals are the extra doses given to people who have a compromised immune system, not the booster doses for everyone else. That group might even receive a fourth dose, as that's something that is being considered now.
    I linked to it below. I know as well because both my parents fell into this category.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    edited December 2021
    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    I still cant book online for my booster jab ffs. How they’ve handled group 6 for boosters has been rubbish. I’ll have to wait for after my surgery now and hope for some free time to go to a walk in
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I strongly advise this!

    This is how I got my over-50 booster shot about two weeks before most of my peers. I did it on a Saturday as soon as news leaked out
    Despite not needing it as reputedly you’d suffered from covid three times already, and been patient zero for new variants reaching this country at least twice….
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Definitely in SA yes. But that doesn't say much.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Huh....

    The United States pays its debts when they are due. That’s why today, I signed a bill to fast-track the process to raise our debt limit. https://t.co/Rx4MNC1XS9

    I think Joe you mean you haven't repaid, so need to take out more debt...

    Technically I think they are borrowing more to repay the old with interest

    If they couldn’t borrow more then they would default… it’s blame shifting
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    edited December 2021

    If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.

    The Tories aren't stupid enough to go into the next election with Johnson as leader if it's obvious he'd be toxic with voters.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Plenty of Omicron deaths in SA.
    .
    However nowhere near as many as, say, Delta at the same stage. So far
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    Ta muchly, managed to get booked for 23 December.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
    Well, my model consists of a 3 million lines of python I randomly borrowed from GitHub, 147 scientists brains in jars, and a lump of cheese.

    It predicts plus or minus 1 trillion cases before the end of the year. To the nearest trillion.

    I await the call to join iSage.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Third doses vs ONS mid-2020

    image
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    dixiedean said:

    Is there an Opinium poll due out tonight? I was assuming so as the last was 2 weeks ago.

    There is and apparently one "not to miss".

    Hope you are well, Phil
    Who in their right mind thinks any opinion poll is "one to miss"?
    What is wrong with these people?
    I genuinely pity them.
    Nothing seems to set the agenda at the moment like a bad poll for the Tories. For that alone I don't understand why you find them unimportant. They could be instrumental in us getting rid of a poisonous Prime Minister!
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Andy_JS said:

    If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.

    The Tories aren't stupid enough to go into the next election with Johnson as leader if it's obvious he'd be toxic with voters.
    Needs 54 to have the courage to move though?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
    Well, my model consists of a 3 million lines of python I randomly borrowed from GitHub, 147 scientists brains in jars, and a lump of cheese.

    It predicts plus or minus 1 trillion cases before the end of the year. To the nearest trillion.

    I await the call to join iSage.
    You are far too bright and well informed for that bunch of fucktards.

    Also far too nice a human being.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    Would it be surprising if vaccines were ineffective against a virus strain that was itself weak?

    Again I am a onfirmed omicron dove but just putting this out there. Those who know their viruses can confirm/correct.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Plenty of Omicron deaths in SA.
    .
    However nowhere near as many as, say, Delta at the same stage. So far
    Yes, this is very instructive, in a population with high levels of natural immunity Omicron isn't having the same level of takeoff in hospitalisations and deaths as Delta did.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
    Well, my model consists of a 3 million lines of python I randomly borrowed from GitHub, 147 scientists brains in jars, and a lump of cheese.

    It predicts plus or minus 1 trillion cases before the end of the year. To the nearest trillion.

    I await the call to join iSage.
    You are far too bright and well informed for that bunch of fucktards.

    Also far too nice a human being.
    I just have a good understanding of my inner savage.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    Yes there is reason. HIV

    It seems quite likely the variant evolved in a person with HIV unable to totally purge the bug. And SA has more HIV+ people than anywhere else on earth
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    Yes there is reason. HIV

    It seems quite likely the variant evolved in a person with HIV unable to totally purge the bug. And SA has more HIV+ people than anywhere else on earth
    But it only takes one.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    No reason, none whatsoever?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,192
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
  • Options

    I think I just heard Christina Pagel saying on BBC news that the 25k-75k deaths "model" takes no account of the severity of Omicron. So they presumably are assuming it is as deadly as Delta. When asked about the apparently low hospitalisation rate in SA, she put it down to the prevalence of prior infection and hence natural immunity. So the best case scenario is not a best case scenario.

    BiB: Thank goodness we had an exit wave over the summer then after we exited restrictions, eh?

    Just imagine how much worse this winter would be if we hadn't used the summer to maximise immunity.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    It’s some weird shit. I just checked the numbers before logging on to PB. I nearly fell off my chair (although I have had several glasses of Shiraz).
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

    Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

    Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

    Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

    But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/

    The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.
    I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

    We are governed by retarded donkeys, the yflip flop all over except when filling their own pockets , they could not run a bath. We are well and truly fcuked till this lot are tarred and feathered and run out of town.
    Some truth in this.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    Proper food poisoning is the worst.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.

    The Tories aren't stupid enough to go into the next election with Johnson as leader if it's obvious he'd be toxic with voters.
    Needs 54 to have the courage to move though?
    Limited courage as I don't think authors of letters are outed unless they out themselves (as 27 did in the May putsch)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46237174
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    I think everyone has died from omicron.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different.
    How?

    I'm not doubting you, I just want to be clear. Turning up and being turned away would be gut wrenching, both personally and because that would mean somebody else couldn't get that slot.
    Read more about the different types of dose and who can book them online:


    1st dose information

    2nd dose information

    3rd dose information for people with a severely weakened immune system

    Booster dose information


    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/
  • Options
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    No reason, none whatsoever?
    Do you think there are unusually high amounts of relativity in the Bern area?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    You don't have to have your jab in the postcode you live, just try different postcodes on the online booking system, I bet you can get it earlier.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    edited December 2021
    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    There’s only one place that you can get them.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them

    Anyone who feels masks do fuck all would be wrong.
    I'll leave it others to decide whether they should be mandated.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    The real PITA about the online booking system is that it has a page for "do you have any access requirements?", offering about 15 options... none of which are "I don't have a car".

    It's absolutely lovely that my nearest jab is in Buckingham, but given that getting there would involve 20 minutes on a train, then a walk across town, then a 1-hour bus journey, I might pass on that one thanks.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189

    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    You don't have to have your jab in the postcode you live, just try different postcodes on the online booking system, I bet you can get it earlier.
    I tried a few options but the ones further away were even later (January mostly). I'm not going into London for a booster shot.
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge :lol:
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    Yes, I booked near my parents house, loads of appointments, not as many around where I live. Will just work from there on my appointment date.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    I suspect it's in his bum... that's where they usually occur.
    Thanks. But I wouldn't mind giving that curry house a go.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,199
    Leon said:

    I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas


    "Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."

    https://twitter.com/gnuseibeh/status/1469735787491213312?s=20

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    On the face of it these two twitter posts are directly contradictory. Does that not give you pause?

    Maybe they're both citing different types of crap data?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    Why not

    Gaggan, Bangkok

    https://www.theworlds50best.com/the-list/1-10/Gaggan.html
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965
    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic

    It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.

    My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.

    Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.

    Welcome to the dark side.

    I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
    LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
    I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
    No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
    I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
    You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
    No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
    Under Labour the approach to precautions and restrictions to combat the spread of the virus would surely have been more consistent and timely. But the reservations fall into two areas:

    - the one good thing about the Tories is that they share liberals’ instinctive fear of over-powerful central government, whereas Labour would have revelled in imposing greater restrictions for longer, and we’d probably have people burning tyres in Trafalgar Square by now;

    - Labour’s disdain for the private sector would probably have hindered our vaccination programme. Whereas the Tories overshot by entrusting production of vital PPE to various mates of Tory MPs with business experience limited to being a pub landlord and whose medical experience was zero, Labour would have tried to manage and control everything within the public sector, with different but equally serious downsides.

    On your last point, I think you're saying that we wouldn't have seen the same level of corruption and cronyism under Labour. I agree.
    We wouldn’t, but equally they would likely have been less willing to find someone like Bingham and her team and let them get on with it without interference. OK, this happened because the scientists saw what an abject shambles Tory politicians had made of PPE procurement and said “not again”, but Labour might not have surrendered so meekly to this as Johnson did.
    That’s bullshit. Your timing doesn’t sync up.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,077

    Leon said:

    I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas


    "Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."

    https://twitter.com/gnuseibeh/status/1469735787491213312?s=20

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    On the face of it these two twitter posts are directly contradictory. Does that not give you pause?

    Maybe they're both citing different types of crap data?
    No, because the first referring to deaths per cases, and the second is referring to absolute deaths
  • Options
    Why is it, that when Leon expresses "cautious optimism" my own personal panic level starts soaring?
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
    Yep. Currently approaching Stonehaven on the way back north. Made it as far as York before having to bail out. Will enjoy* my 10 days in the clink and that's even if I don't get it off Mrs RP.

    Have got several friends in different parts of the country who also enjoy pints and piracy. Alestorm tour a great excuse to have fun with friends.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    No but was on my gp list (I had booked direct but then my gp texted and I could move a week earlier)

    But if you turn up they will do you as a walk in if that’s an issue
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
    It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
  • Options

    Why is it, that when Leon expresses "cautious optimism" my own personal panic level starts soaring?

    yes its a fault with reality - do not adjust your brain. Leon does optimism and pessimism but never cautious optimism
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
    Yep. Currently approaching Stonehaven on the way back north. Made it as far as York before having to bail out. Will enjoy* my 10 days in the clink and that's even if I don't get it off Mrs RP.

    Have got several friends in different parts of the country who also enjoy pints and piracy. Alestorm tour a great excuse to have fun with friends.
    Bugger sorry to hear
  • Options

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    If you google "haemmorhoid" pretty sure you'll learn where to find "it"
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for those who have been identified as immucomprised.

    For a booster, nobody asks for anything.
    Although technically it is a third dose not a booster… a booster is half strength and these aren’t
  • Options
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for those who have been identified as immucomprised.

    For a booster, nobody asks for anything.
    Although technically it is a third dose not a booster… a booster is half strength and these aren’t
    Yes I know. I linked to the exact details below.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
    It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
    NZ? Good luck St Jucinda - give you something to worry about beyond nannying around banning smoking
  • Options

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas


    "Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."

    https://twitter.com/gnuseibeh/status/1469735787491213312?s=20

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    On the face of it these two twitter posts are directly contradictory. Does that not give you pause?

    Maybe they're both citing different types of crap data?
    No, because the first referring to deaths per cases, and the second is referring to absolute deaths
    Indeed, they are complementary, not contradictory.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
    Yep. Currently approaching Stonehaven on the way back north. Made it as far as York before having to bail out. Will enjoy* my 10 days in the clink and that's even if I don't get it off Mrs RP.

    Have got several friends in different parts of the country who also enjoy pints and piracy. Alestorm tour a great excuse to have fun with friends.
    Hope you escape it so that you are allowed out for Christmas.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    Is that known to be so? AIUI they were just the first to identify it.

  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    edited December 2021

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,973

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge :lol:
    I prefer 1:1 scale. Can be a bit difficult getting a 9F in my room, though ...
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970
    I am fearful that the Government are pressurised by the NHS to use Omicron as an excuse to lock us down, even if it turns out not to be serious, in order to keep old people at home so they don’t slip and fall over the winter, thereby reducing pressure on A&E. Also shutting hospitality to keep drunks out of A&E.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
    It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
    NZ? Good luck St Jucinda - give you something to worry about beyond nannying around banning smoking
    What NZ has done about smoking is entirely good sense and will be widely imitated

    A very good friend of mine died of a brain tumour, a secondary of smoking-induced lung cancer. You really don't want 16 year olds having the right to choose to have that happen to them in their 50s.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,258

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    Best of wishes to you both RP. Really hope she, and you in turn, are okay. Best vibes from me. x
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I just have, on @pigeon 's information. Where did you find out, may I ask? It's reassuring if several people are hearing at once.
    I saw it on here a couple of days ago!
  • Options

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
    1. You're talking laughable bollocks. You know better than the collected medics and virologists of course
    2. I was going to wear one all day anyway. Finding out hours in that I may be infected and must return home just reinforced why we wear masks.

    So, brain_go_away, glad to finally meet you Piers Corbyn.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,892
    Boris Johnson’s approval rating has nose-dived over the past week, with more people now disapproving of the job he is doing than at any other point in his leadership.

    Approve 24% (-7)
    Disapprove 59% (+11)

    This gives him a net score of -35, down from -17 a fortnight ago. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469759308380389376/photo/1
This discussion has been closed.