1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
I am expecting to have several dozen flu jabs over my life. If it is the same for covid that is the least of my worries.
I think it must be over for Boris and the tories. They haven't learned anything from the Barnard Castle episode and have effectively walked in to a repeat of it, but worse; as there is a strong - I would say universal - suspicion that the prime minister is lying, and that matters will be fixed up to avoid a proper investigation. Meanwhile, Starmer is looking solid and reliable.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I think it must be over for Boris and the tories. They haven't learned anything from the Barnard Castle episode and have effectively walked in to a repeat of it, but worse; as there is a strong - I would say universal - suspicion that the prime minister is lying, and that matters will be fixed up to avoid a proper investigation. Meanwhile, Starmer is looking solid and reliable.
Assuming that Boris Johnson is lying on any given matter is merely the triumph of experience over hope.
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
I actually think if the Tories don't get rid of Boris they're in for a real drubbing in 2024. I could even see Labour sneak through a small majority with a really big swing in votes and the Tories in high 20s or very low 30s. Even people who were previously sympathetic to Boris are now turning against him.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Anyone starting to think "big data" might be a curse for humanity rather than a boon?
Aha. Interesting point.
My Mum tells me that in 1968 there was HK flu and people were pretty nervous but got on with life. Obviously not on the same scale as this bastard, but makes you think. There was no daily doom bulletin of stats.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Sadly this was the point where Covid could have become “normalised” in the UK - it the govt hadn’t imposed Plan B (sub section Dead Cat) and said we just have to accept this then there would be no turning back. By caving in they have given succour to every lock-down addict every time there is a new variant for at least the next year if not longer until this stop/start life becomes “normal”.
I actually think if the Tories don't get rid of Boris they're in for a real drubbing in 2024. I could even see Labour sneak through a small majority with a really big swing in votes and the Tories in high 20s or very low 30s. Even people who were previously sympathetic to Boris are now turning against him.
It isn't if, its when now. I presume whoever wants to take over,. doesn't want to have to do so in middle of new wave of covid.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I dunno. I'm in despair, to be honest
A black mood. I'm sure I'm not alone. Best go to the gym before they close everywhere in the world forever
Anyone starting to think "big data" might be a curse for humanity rather than a boon?
Aha. Interesting point.
My Mum tells me that in 1968 there was HK flu and people were pretty nervous but got on with life. Obviously not on the same scale as this bastard, but makes you think. There was no daily doom bulletin of stats.
Yes and you didn't get journalists saying stupid things like 55% of people who were in hospital were vaccinated so vaccines don't work.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I can live with a booster jag every autumn. But this shit where we lockdown every Jan and Feb? I'm not coping with the idea.
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
Trouble is, Bozza's new fanbase aren't constitutional experts. They think they voted for Bozza and are going to feel defrauded if there's a switch of PM esp if he doesn't go quietly.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I dunno. I'm in despair, to be honest
A black mood. I'm sure I'm not alone. Best go to the gym before they close everywhere in the world forever
Me too mate, I'm about to head to the pub to enjoy the last few days of unmasked freedom indoors. My wife is also feeling pretty gloomy because both the UK and Switzerland seem to be taking an insane elimination strategy to COVID.
For all those supporting BoJo - what success has he delivered over the last 2 years?
I am not supporting him, but he got us out of the EU, got a trade deal that protected our sovereignty more than anyone said was possible, and got us a vaccine program earlier than anyone else in Europe
The one that ended the United Kingdom as a trading block and forces GB and NI companies to have export licences to sell things to each other?
If that's protecting the sovereignty of the UK I'd hate to see what not ptotecting it looks like.
Theresa May's backstop.
Infinitely worse.
Perhaps, but isn't relevant to the argument @Aslan was promoting. He said that the current trade deal - which dissolved the UK trading area - "protected our sovereignty". I now need an export license to sell products in my own country. How has that protected our sovereignty to do things like not need an export license to trade inside our own country...
I don't need you to come back in with alternative takes on external sovereignty - you have one perspective on that, I have another. But the ending of the UK as a trading nation is indisputable - we are now split in two with GB as one trading zone and NI as another trading zone. Usually deals that protect a country's sovereignty doesn't split a chunk off it.
It did protect our sovereignty because we had Article 16 so could override it. The ending is not indisputable, we'll see what the situation is post-Article 16.
There are plenty of countries that have had chunks split off, where its convenient to do so, its far from unprecedented.
On that logic while in the EU our sovereignty was protected because we could always leave.
Either in the EU we were sovereign because we could leave and there is no compromise of sovereignty over NI because we can invoke A16; or in the EU we were not sovereign and we are not sovereign now because there is no free movement of goods between GB and NI.
You are a logical debater. Which is it; it can't be both.
We were always technically sovereign, we could only exercise that sovereignty by invoking Article 50 so we rightly did when people wanted to exercise that sovereignty.
Same deal with Article 16 - and I think it should be invoked too.
So as it stands we are not sovereign because we haven't exercised it. Is that right?
If memory serves, you've been trying variants (so to speak) of this line for a couple of years now, and I'm sorry, but I think it's a stupid argument. If we our sovereignty within the EU is only present because we have the option to leave it, then we clearly aren't sovereign while we're in it, and the fact that we assented (implicitly) to that reality is irrelevant.
He who [has to] break[s] a thing to find out what it is, has left the path of wisdom.
Apology accepted. Although your point is wrong. We were always sovereign whether we decided to exercise it or not. Of course we made compromises but did so as a sovereign nation.
But that is not the point. If we were not sovereign within the EU because we hadn't "proved" it by leaving, then the NI deal means we are not sovereign because as of this moment we haven't exercised A16. It can't be both.
If you think we weren't sovereign while in the EU and aren't sovereign now because the NI deal means that there is no free movement of goods between GB and NI that is fair enough. But you can't argue for one and not the other.
We were always sovereign for both. The question is if you wanted to exercise your sovereignty or not.
The English and Welsh voted to exercise their sovereignty, hence invoking Article 50. The NI did not, hence the special arrangements.
Now if the NI wish to exercise theirs, then A16 is the right answer for them, just as it was for the UK as a whole. For the same reasons. Using the same logic.
No inconsistencies.
Excellent. So we were sovereign while in the EU: tick. And we are sovereign with this NI deal: tick.
So why all the fuss about leaving the EU to reclaim our sovereignty.
Because we wanted to exercise our sovereignty.
Not just have it in abeyance.
Philip
I remember you telling me that the main benefit of leaving the EU was to get our sovereignty back.
Now you are telling me that we had it all the time!
So why leave?
So we could exercise it.
If you only have sovereignty so long as you can't exercise it, and you want to exercise it but can't, then do you have it.
So we only have something if we use it? Obviously we "could" exercise it, we did. So obviously we had it.
Is this some weird version of "having your cake and eating it?" ....or because we don't use a nuclear weapon we don't have it?
No its the polar opposite.
If you're not bothered about using your sovereignty then its OK to keep it in abeyance in something like the EU or NI Protocol, so long as you have an exit mechanism like A50 or A16.
If you are bothered about using it then you need to invoke the relevant Article first before you can.
How is that not clear?
But I am not bothered about using it. There are more important things to worry about, like Covid, the NHS, paying back borrowed monies, trying to keep our trade figures up to where they were, you know, and of course not dying (even though I am old and I will die sooner or later...)
That's fine, you're not bothered. So vote Remain then. That's entirely valid. I had no philosophical objection to Remain.
But that wasn't the nations choice. You were a minority and lost the vote. A majority were bothered so that's the decision made.
So you think of sovereignty within the EU like money in a piggy bank? You have to smash the piggy bank to get the sovereignty out. Taking that analogy I wonder what we've actually spent our sovereignty on and was it worth destroying the piggy bank.
Yes that's a perfect analogy!
Well done. Next time this comes up, are you ok if I steal it, because it's absolutely perfect?
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I can live with a booster jag every autumn. But this shit where we lockdown every Jan and Feb? I'm not coping with the idea.
Pretty bloody low tonight.
Some of us just started a new venture and were going to be hiring in the new year....
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
Trouble is, Bozza's new fanbase aren't constitutional experts. They think they voted for Bozza and are going to feel defrauded if there's a switch of PM esp if he doesn't go quietly.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I dunno. I'm in despair, to be honest
A black mood. I'm sure I'm not alone. Best go to the gym before they close everywhere in the world forever
I've been to that pub in Camden a few times recently, the Edinboro' Castle, where the average age of customers is about 25. The thought of it closing down again is awful.
Sensible and moderate proposals by the PM tonight. Vaccine passports for nightclubs and large venues and facemasks for cinemas and theatres given Omicron but crucially no new lockdown
These measures are pretty much what we have in Scotland already. HYUFD in "SNP are sensible and moderate" shocker.
And which appear have had zero effect on either the case or vaccination rate in Scotland. The reality is this won't make any difference to the outcomes, it just means more miserable people, ruined business, and a "papers please" society.
Restrictions have always been the wrong answer to this pandemic, but at least last time round there was a point "we're waiting for the vaccines" / "we're rolling out the vaccines". There is no point now - we have vaccines, we've double jabbed almost everyone at any real risk, and triple jabbed the most vulnerable.
Polling on this is massively skewed because - most people want to WFH for reasons unrelated to the pandemic, and those least in favour of restrictions are least likely to be polled because they will be out living their lives rather than cowering at home being rung by opinion pollsters.
Scotland is top of the vaccination rate (1st, 2nd & booster) and bottom of the case rate in the UK isn't it?
Buit it has also varied in case rate out of step of the rest of hte UK - so there are other factors operating and it's impossible to refute the prima facie hypothesis that masks do work by helping reduce the infection rate.
Aye, I was just curious as to what data was driving the absolute certainty that Scottish measures ‘have had zero effect on either the case or vaccination rate in Scotland’.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I dunno. I'm in despair, to be honest
A black mood. I'm sure I'm not alone. Best go to the gym before they close everywhere in the world forever
Me too mate, I'm about to head to the pub to enjoy the last few days of unmasked freedom indoors. My wife is also feeling pretty gloomy because both the UK and Switzerland seem to be taking an insane elimination strategy to COVID.
Where has anyone said - or indicated - that the UK's strategy is to 'eliminate' Covid?
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
Trouble is, Bozza's new fanbase aren't constitutional experts. They think they voted for Bozza and are going to feel defrauded if there's a switch of PM esp if he doesn't go quietly.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I can live with a booster jag every autumn. But this shit where we lockdown every Jan and Feb? I'm not coping with the idea.
Pretty bloody low tonight.
Same here. I'm worried that the idiot politicians can't see beyond tomorrow and look at what kind of society they are creating. The conversation my sister and I had with my mum would have been unthinkable 2 years ago. She's a generally fairly rational person but having to sit down and explain to her that going outside won't kill her wasn't easy. My sister asked the question straight "what do you think will happen if you get COVID" and her response was "I would die" which is completely ridiculous given she's completely healthy, not overweight and, most importantly, had two Pfizer doses and one Moderna dose and previously been infected.
The politicians and journalists think this kind of panic inducing Omicron reaction is just lobby fodder but it isn't, the nature of our country is changing and people are becoming naturally more risk averse. It's not going to end well.
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does
But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.
I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
We do flu jabs every year so that's hardly a surprise. The government has purchased 120m Pfizer and Moderna gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines for 2022 and 2023 delivery with Pfizer opening up UK manufacturing as well. That's all part and parcel of a new endemic disease, it's a risk reduction strategy and is eminently sensible. This feels like a risk elimination strategy and is completely idiotic because we won't ever, ever eliminate COVID, there are now huge reservoirs of the virus in domestic and wild animals, it is here forever.
I dunno. I'm in despair, to be honest
A black mood. I'm sure I'm not alone. Best go to the gym before they close everywhere in the world forever
Me too mate, I'm about to head to the pub to enjoy the last few days of unmasked freedom indoors. My wife is also feeling pretty gloomy because both the UK and Switzerland seem to be taking an insane elimination strategy to COVID.
Close to despair myself. When will this shit every end?
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
I am expecting to have several dozen flu jabs over my life. If it is the same for covid that is the least of my worries.
Yeah, I imagine even Philip T would agree that's no big deal. And actually nothing that has been announced is that dramatic, to the point that I do suspect the presser was called at 6 to preempt the news going on about the party. Are any businesses required to close? Families forbidden to meet? No.
Is there more to come, though? Probably, around January 2.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
I am expecting to have several dozen flu jabs over my life. If it is the same for covid that is the least of my worries.
Yeah, I imagine even Philip T would agree that's no big deal. And actually nothing that has been announced is that dramatic, to the point that I do suspect the presser was called at 6 to preempt the news going on about the party. Are any businesses required to close? Families forbidden to meet? No.
Is there more to come, though? Probably, around January 2.
They'd better not cancel live music again, the misses will be apoplectic if we can't see Seth Lakeman.
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
Trouble is, Bozza's new fanbase aren't constitutional experts. They think they voted for Bozza and are going to feel defrauded if there's a switch of PM esp if he doesn't go quietly.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
That is indeed the dilemma for the Conservatives.
But it wasn't ONLY adoring Johnson fans that took him to victory. There was an alliance of personal admirers, "Get Brexit Done" people, and pretty standard, Chesham & Amersham type Tories. The worry for the Tory MP is that the first of those groups is dwindling and, as I say, might be hard to recover now the joke is old, the second is dissipating over time, and the third is restless (and Shropshire North may be of interest in that respect).
At some point, the fear really sets in that the alliance that won it for you in 2019 cannot do it in 2023/24, and you need to build a new one.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
You are once again ignoring the other parts of the immune system. This data is also not in line with other studies that are emerging.
I'm ignoring nothing. My comment was about the findings shown, which are about antibodies.
What these data appear to show is that two doses of vaccination alone was never sufficient to produce 50% neutralisation of Omicron. With a Pfizer booster half a month before, this is achieved in a reasonable percentage of people (38-78% according to which vaccine was originally used). But in the one group where the sera were obtained 3 months after the booster it was down to 25%, and the same for the vaccination plus infection group. That suggests the efficacy of boosters against infection by Omicron is very short-lived.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
For all those supporting BoJo - what success has he delivered over the last 2 years?
I am not supporting him, but he got us out of the EU, got a trade deal that protected our sovereignty more than anyone said was possible, and got us a vaccine program earlier than anyone else in Europe
The one that ended the United Kingdom as a trading block and forces GB and NI companies to have export licences to sell things to each other?
If that's protecting the sovereignty of the UK I'd hate to see what not ptotecting it looks like.
Theresa May's backstop.
Infinitely worse.
Perhaps, but isn't relevant to the argument @Aslan was promoting. He said that the current trade deal - which dissolved the UK trading area - "protected our sovereignty". I now need an export license to sell products in my own country. How has that protected our sovereignty to do things like not need an export license to trade inside our own country...
I don't need you to come back in with alternative takes on external sovereignty - you have one perspective on that, I have another. But the ending of the UK as a trading nation is indisputable - we are now split in two with GB as one trading zone and NI as another trading zone. Usually deals that protect a country's sovereignty doesn't split a chunk off it.
It did protect our sovereignty because we had Article 16 so could override it. The ending is not indisputable, we'll see what the situation is post-Article 16.
There are plenty of countries that have had chunks split off, where its convenient to do so, its far from unprecedented.
On that logic while in the EU our sovereignty was protected because we could always leave.
Either in the EU we were sovereign because we could leave and there is no compromise of sovereignty over NI because we can invoke A16; or in the EU we were not sovereign and we are not sovereign now because there is no free movement of goods between GB and NI.
You are a logical debater. Which is it; it can't be both.
We were always technically sovereign, we could only exercise that sovereignty by invoking Article 50 so we rightly did when people wanted to exercise that sovereignty.
Same deal with Article 16 - and I think it should be invoked too.
So as it stands we are not sovereign because we haven't exercised it. Is that right?
If memory serves, you've been trying variants (so to speak) of this line for a couple of years now, and I'm sorry, but I think it's a stupid argument. If we our sovereignty within the EU is only present because we have the option to leave it, then we clearly aren't sovereign while we're in it, and the fact that we assented (implicitly) to that reality is irrelevant.
He who [has to] break[s] a thing to find out what it is, has left the path of wisdom.
Apology accepted. Although your point is wrong. We were always sovereign whether we decided to exercise it or not. Of course we made compromises but did so as a sovereign nation.
But that is not the point. If we were not sovereign within the EU because we hadn't "proved" it by leaving, then the NI deal means we are not sovereign because as of this moment we haven't exercised A16. It can't be both.
If you think we weren't sovereign while in the EU and aren't sovereign now because the NI deal means that there is no free movement of goods between GB and NI that is fair enough. But you can't argue for one and not the other.
We were always sovereign for both. The question is if you wanted to exercise your sovereignty or not.
The English and Welsh voted to exercise their sovereignty, hence invoking Article 50. The NI did not, hence the special arrangements.
Now if the NI wish to exercise theirs, then A16 is the right answer for them, just as it was for the UK as a whole. For the same reasons. Using the same logic.
No inconsistencies.
Excellent. So we were sovereign while in the EU: tick. And we are sovereign with this NI deal: tick.
So why all the fuss about leaving the EU to reclaim our sovereignty.
Because we wanted to exercise our sovereignty.
Not just have it in abeyance.
Philip
I remember you telling me that the main benefit of leaving the EU was to get our sovereignty back.
Now you are telling me that we had it all the time!
So why leave?
So we could exercise it.
If you only have sovereignty so long as you can't exercise it, and you want to exercise it but can't, then do you have it.
So we only have something if we use it? Obviously we "could" exercise it, we did. So obviously we had it.
Is this some weird version of "having your cake and eating it?" ....or because we don't use a nuclear weapon we don't have it?
No its the polar opposite.
If you're not bothered about using your sovereignty then its OK to keep it in abeyance in something like the EU or NI Protocol, so long as you have an exit mechanism like A50 or A16.
If you are bothered about using it then you need to invoke the relevant Article first before you can.
How is that not clear?
But I am not bothered about using it. There are more important things to worry about, like Covid, the NHS, paying back borrowed monies, trying to keep our trade figures up to where they were, you know, and of course not dying (even though I am old and I will die sooner or later...)
That's fine, you're not bothered. So vote Remain then. That's entirely valid. I had no philosophical objection to Remain.
But that wasn't the nations choice. You were a minority and lost the vote. A majority were bothered so that's the decision made.
So you think of sovereignty within the EU like money in a piggy bank? You have to smash the piggy bank to get the sovereignty out. Taking that analogy I wonder what we've actually spent our sovereignty on and was it worth destroying the piggy bank.
Yes that's a perfect analogy!
Well done. Next time this comes up, are you ok if I steal it, because it's absolutely perfect?
You're welcome and please feel free! Honestly as a long time lurker I feel quite honoured. Although I do think I'd have kept my sovereignty in the piggy bank for something better than we actually got for it.
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
Trouble is, Bozza's new fanbase aren't constitutional experts. They think they voted for Bozza and are going to feel defrauded if there's a switch of PM esp if he doesn't go quietly.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
That is indeed the dilemma for the Conservatives.
But it wasn't ONLY adoring Johnson fans that took him to victory. There was an alliance of personal admirers, "Get Brexit Done" people, and pretty standard, Chesham & Amersham type Tories. The worry for the Tory MP is that the first of those groups is dwindling and, as I say, might be hard to recover now the joke is old, the second is dissipating over time, and the third is restless (and Shropshire North may be of interest in that respect).
At some point, the fear really sets in that the alliance that won it for you in 2019 cannot do it in 2023/24, and you need to build a new one.
Starting from scratch and with limited time available.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
Trouble is, Bozza's new fanbase aren't constitutional experts. They think they voted for Bozza and are going to feel defrauded if there's a switch of PM esp if he doesn't go quietly.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
Hey one good post and many steps back!
In English?
Oh I just meant that 'love actually' (or any other such crap) is sort of unworthy of sense. I don't even know what it is - it's just going to be crap.
As I am off to see Alestorm again on Sarurday, one of their (many) drinking songs feels appropriate:
One More Drink at the Sunken Norwegian One More Drink before we have to die One More Drink at the Sunken Norwegian Raise up yer tankards of ale to the sky
*samples on Amazon Music*
Jesus Christ on a bike, they come from Perth but you're still prepared to go all the way to London to listen to that stuff? Are you 13?
This quote from the nightclubs body just now is exactly why he's got to go. Quite simply, it's going to be open season now for everyone to challenge every governmental information on covid, at every step. There will be some compliance but no trust.
"The nightclub industry has accused Boris Johnson of throwing nightclubs and bars “under the bus to save his own skin”.
"The chief executive of the Night Time Industries Association described the prime minister’s announcement that the NHS Covid pass would be mandatory for entry into nightclubs as “devastating news for the nightlife sector”. "You do, therefore, have to question the timing and rationale for this announcement," he said. "Is this sound evidence-based public policy making or is this an attempt to move the news agenda on from a damaging story about the Downing St Christmas party?" "
Quite frankly, I'm more worried about us being screwed.
Boris should go and I'd be sending a letter to Graham Brady if I was a Tory MP; but its a shame there's no Leader of the Opposition worth his salt so he's going to get away with this.
Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
I tend to agree that this is a recoverable position for the Conservatives.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
Trouble is, Bozza's new fanbase aren't constitutional experts. They think they voted for Bozza and are going to feel defrauded if there's a switch of PM esp if he doesn't go quietly.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
That is indeed the dilemma for the Conservatives.
But it wasn't ONLY adoring Johnson fans that took him to victory. There was an alliance of personal admirers, "Get Brexit Done" people, and pretty standard, Chesham & Amersham type Tories. The worry for the Tory MP is that the first of those groups is dwindling and, as I say, might be hard to recover now the joke is old, the second is dissipating over time, and the third is restless (and Shropshire North may be of interest in that respect).
At some point, the fear really sets in that the alliance that won it for you in 2019 cannot do it in 2023/24, and you need to build a new one.
Starting from scratch and with limited time available.
Firstly, time is always "limited" but there doesn't actually have to be an election for three years. It's not like we're staring down the barrel of one in the Spring - there's a sizeable Tory majority and no reason for the Government to fall.
Secondly, it isn't "from scratch". Conservatives can say "bloomin' well done to Bozza for getting Brexit done and vaccines or whatever... but he's not the man to build the peace - we need a bit less chaos, a bit more competence, a bit of meat on the bones of 'levelling up'". They don't just start from zero voters because they give Johnson the push.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
There was little opposition though.
A bit like invading Ukraine then.
Some, at least, of the Ukrainians will fight. There is no love for the Russians especially in the East.
Some at least of the Hungarians fought, which is why around twenty thousand of them were killed (not two thousand as Wiki claims).
Ukraine could be a bloodbath
The only way Ukraine becomes a bloodbath is if NATO counter-invades in support of Kiev.
Which I do not believe will happen.
More likely all Russian assets overseas will be seized and the country cut off diplomatically.
We shouldn't counter invade but we should certainly bomb any areas of Ukraine that the legitimate Ukrainian government asks us to. If there happens to be an invading army there then that it on them.
If Russia can invade its neighbours and get away with only minor repercussions then it will go after the Baltics next. If we still don't do much it will go after Poland. We are going to have to draw the line eventually, so it's better for everyone if we do it sooner rather than later.
Total left of Macron : 27 Total right of Macron : 47,5
No 2nd round Numbers
Today one junior minister resigned (judged guilty of « incomplete or falsified declaration of interests »). It won’t be front page news as nobody know he was a minister…
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
There was little opposition though.
A bit like invading Ukraine then.
Some, at least, of the Ukrainians will fight. There is no love for the Russians especially in the East.
Some at least of the Hungarians fought, which is why around twenty thousand of them were killed (not two thousand as Wiki claims).
Ukraine could be a bloodbath
Ukraine has bought a pile of Turkish drones.
They’re incredibly effective weapons platforms. I wouldn’t bet on an easy Russian victory. Russia made all sorts of offended noises when the Turks did the deal, because they knew what it meant.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
There was little opposition though.
A bit like invading Ukraine then.
Some, at least, of the Ukrainians will fight. There is no love for the Russians especially in the East.
Some at least of the Hungarians fought, which is why around twenty thousand of them were killed (not two thousand as Wiki claims).
Ukraine could be a bloodbath
The only way Ukraine becomes a bloodbath is if NATO counter-invades in support of Kiev.
Which I do not believe will happen.
More likely all Russian assets overseas will be seized and the country cut off diplomatically.
We shouldn't counter invade but we should certainly bomb any areas of Ukraine that the legitimate Ukrainian government asks us to. If there happens to be an invading army there then that it on them.
If Russia can invade its neighbours and get away with only minor repercussions then it will go after the Baltics next. If we still don't do much it will go after Poland. We are going to have to draw the line eventually, so it's better for everyone if we do it sooner rather than later.
The Baltics and Poland are members of NATO. Ukraine isn't.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
Be interesting to know where the public stand. I have no idea.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
In the context of restrictions it won’t matter, as the adults in the house will support them.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
There was little opposition though.
A bit like invading Ukraine then.
Some, at least, of the Ukrainians will fight. There is no love for the Russians especially in the East.
Some at least of the Hungarians fought, which is why around twenty thousand of them were killed (not two thousand as Wiki claims).
Ukraine could be a bloodbath
The only way Ukraine becomes a bloodbath is if NATO counter-invades in support of Kiev.
Which I do not believe will happen.
More likely all Russian assets overseas will be seized and the country cut off diplomatically.
It will be a bloodbath because the Ukranians will fight, even if no one else does. Incidentally this Ukranian army recruiting advert is very well done. Much more honest than ours:
Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
I am expecting to have several dozen flu jabs over my life. If it is the same for covid that is the least of my worries.
Yeah, I imagine even Philip T would agree that's no big deal. And actually nothing that has been announced is that dramatic, to the point that I do suspect the presser was called at 6 to preempt the news going on about the party. Are any businesses required to close? Families forbidden to meet? No.
Is there more to come, though? Probably, around January 2.
I have absolutely no qualms about getting as many jabs as are necessary to stay safe. However many are required, I couldn't care less. I've always expected them to be annual, but if they're every six months then that's fine too.
But "Plan B", that has me pissed off. In part due to what's been announced and in part because of the direction of travel.
Plan B is annoying stuff that won't have much meaningful impact. So its annoying for no reward. So the question is "if this is needed, then what's next" because this is going to do √(Fuck All).
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
There was little opposition though.
A bit like invading Ukraine then.
Some, at least, of the Ukrainians will fight. There is no love for the Russians especially in the East.
Some at least of the Hungarians fought, which is why around twenty thousand of them were killed (not two thousand as Wiki claims).
Ukraine could be a bloodbath
The only way Ukraine becomes a bloodbath is if NATO counter-invades in support of Kiev.
Which I do not believe will happen.
More likely all Russian assets overseas will be seized and the country cut off diplomatically.
We shouldn't counter invade but we should certainly bomb any areas of Ukraine that the legitimate Ukrainian government asks us to. If there happens to be an invading army there then that it on them.
If Russia can invade its neighbours and get away with only minor repercussions then it will go after the Baltics next. If we still don't do much it will go after Poland. We are going to have to draw the line eventually, so it's better for everyone if we do it sooner rather than later.
The Baltics and Poland are members of NATO. Ukraine isn't.
NATO is a security commitment. Just as the Budapest Memorandum was.
Comments
Fish, fish...
Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
49m
How many times are we going to be told by the PM and his advisers that we must learn to live with this virus?
And how many times are they going to stop us from doing just that?
When does this end?
WHEN. WE. SAY. IT. DOES.
It's over. No more. We want our lives back.
Where I have a problem with your position is that you remove agency from Johnson - he is, for you, passive recipient of a "barrage of attacks".
Johnson's fundamental problem, and the reason I think the Tories would be wise to look elsewhere, is that so many of Johnson's wounds are entirely self inflicted, and related to his laziness, arrogance, and tenuous relationship with the truth. The party story is but an example - the culture at Downing Street last December was Johnson's culture, the decision to deny was Johnson's decision, the farce of a response today was Johnson's response. Similarly, the CBI fiasco and Paterson row were simply gifts from Johnson to his opponents.
I accept Johnson has advantages too - he's got charisma, and can campaign in bold colours. But he's his own worst enemy in terms of unforced errors and I'm not sure the "good old Bozza" brand is recoverable - he's trashed it and the joke has grown old.
I wonder if he moved on from cucumber to flint...
Sabrina Miller
@SabriSun_Miller
·
1h
Will government staffers be working from home or will they be coming into No.10 for Christmas parties?
I am sure she has evidence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ice_Twins
My Mum tells me that in 1968 there was HK flu and people were pretty nervous but got on with life. Obviously not on the same scale as this bastard, but makes you think. There was no daily doom bulletin of stats.
A black mood. I'm sure I'm not alone. Best go to the gym before they close everywhere in the world forever
Probably about 50% in my experience.
Pretty bloody low tonight.
Think how many people voted for him because of the Love Actually doorstep video and the driving a bulldozer through a wall thing. Try to imagine any conceivable replacement pulling off either of those things.
Well done. Next time this comes up, are you ok if I steal it, because it's absolutely perfect?
You're making stuff up.
The politicians and journalists think this kind of panic inducing Omicron reaction is just lobby fodder but it isn't, the nature of our country is changing and people are becoming naturally more risk averse. It's not going to end well.
I could have gone with - Names? A Host!
But thought I'd try with the Knox, because Sean Thomas Knox appears to be the chap from twitter that's stalking you around the world..
Is there more to come, though? Probably, around January 2.
I hope the film adaptation has a diverse cast and is set in central London.
It would rock.
- New cases: 19,842
- Average: 13,493 (+1,612)
- Positivity rate: 26.8% (+1.9)
- In hospital: 4,252 (+454)
- In ICU: 368 (+14)
- New deaths: 36
- Average: 23 (+1)
But it wasn't ONLY adoring Johnson fans that took him to victory. There was an alliance of personal admirers, "Get Brexit Done" people, and pretty standard, Chesham & Amersham type Tories. The worry for the Tory MP is that the first of those groups is dwindling and, as I say, might be hard to recover now the joke is old, the second is dissipating over time, and the third is restless (and Shropshire North may be of interest in that respect).
At some point, the fear really sets in that the alliance that won it for you in 2019 cannot do it in 2023/24, and you need to build a new one.
What these data appear to show is that two doses of vaccination alone was never sufficient to produce 50% neutralisation of Omicron. With a Pfizer booster half a month before, this is achieved in a reasonable percentage of people (38-78% according to which vaccine was originally used). But in the one group where the sera were obtained 3 months after the booster it was down to 25%, and the same for the vaccination plus infection group. That suggests the efficacy of boosters against infection by Omicron is very short-lived.
Which I do not believe will happen.
More likely all Russian assets overseas will be seized and the country cut off diplomatically.
BoJo is screwed.
Con 1.55
Lab 2.78
You would have thought everyone on here would be busy putting their money where their mouths are.
https://youtu.be/ZVEJpjzrB5M
https://twitter.com/cabmerlot/status/1468651188891627522?s=21
Jesus Christ on a bike, they come from Perth but you're still prepared to go all the way to London to listen to that stuff? Are you 13?
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-pass/get-your-covid-pass-letter/
"The nightclub industry has accused Boris Johnson of throwing nightclubs and bars “under the bus to save his own skin”.
"The chief executive of the Night Time Industries Association described the prime minister’s announcement that the NHS Covid pass would be mandatory for entry into nightclubs as “devastating news for the nightlife sector”. "You do, therefore, have to question the timing and rationale for this announcement," he said. "Is this sound evidence-based public policy making or is this an attempt to move the news agenda on from a damaging story about the Downing St Christmas party?" "
Boris should go and I'd be sending a letter to Graham Brady if I was a Tory MP; but its a shame there's no Leader of the Opposition worth his salt so he's going to get away with this.
Secondly, it isn't "from scratch". Conservatives can say "bloomin' well done to Bozza for getting Brexit done and vaccines or whatever... but he's not the man to build the peace - we need a bit less chaos, a bit more competence, a bit of meat on the bones of 'levelling up'". They don't just start from zero voters because they give Johnson the push.
I have one.
If Russia can invade its neighbours and get away with only minor repercussions then it will go after the Baltics next. If we still don't do much it will go after Poland. We are going to have to draw the line eventually, so it's better for everyone if we do it sooner rather than later.
Ipsos for FranceInfo
Macron 25 (=)
Pecresse 16 (+4)
Le Pen 16 (-1)
Zemmour 14 (-1)
Melenchon 8 (-1)
Jadot 7 (-2)
Hidalgo 5 (-0,5)
Others 9 (+1,5)
Total left of Macron : 27
Total right of Macron : 47,5
No 2nd round Numbers
Today one junior minister resigned (judged guilty of « incomplete or falsified declaration of interests »). It won’t be front page news as nobody know he was a minister…
Will Oswestry be Johnson's Waterloo?
I decided some years ago to have nothing to do with any Russians. That was and is entirely independent of Putin.
They’re incredibly effective weapons platforms. I wouldn’t bet on an easy Russian victory. Russia made all sorts of offended noises when the Turks did the deal, because they knew what it meant.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
https://youtu.be/NOCbW1hc6Ng
Edit, though this one might appeal more to @TSE
https://youtu.be/tJKFNPGS_XM
@MrHarryCole
·
1h
PM: Do not cancel your Christmas party.
"Get a test before you go.. to give everyone else at the party the confidence they are not meeting someone infectious."
* just dont go to the office
But "Plan B", that has me pissed off. In part due to what's been announced and in part because of the direction of travel.
Plan B is annoying stuff that won't have much meaningful impact. So its annoying for no reward. So the question is "if this is needed, then what's next" because this is going to do √(Fuck All).
We sit and we pray
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468670696758956035
https://twitter.com/Mark_J_Harper/status/1468665550570246146