(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
In the context of restrictions it won’t matter, as the adults in the house will support them.
A PM who needs Opposition votes to get their flagship policy thru the House is a dead man walking.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
Be interesting to know where the public stand. I have no idea.
You would have thought everyone on here would be busy putting their money where their mouths are.
Firstly, that is a Tory to Labour move over recent days (albeit not huge). Secondly, it ignores the other move, which is a tightening in the price of Johnson being gone within a year. If your reasoning is Johnson is the Tories' problem, then your view on the "most seats" market is related to whether you think he'll be leader - the more vulnerable he appears, the greater the risk they will change horses.
This "get a test before you go." Both I and the friend I strongly suspect I caught it off were still testing negative 4 days into symptoms. We thought cold. Anecdata yes. And only 2. But. Is this an omicron feature? Both double jabbed. She boosted too.
Anyone starting to think "big data" might be a curse for humanity rather than a boon?
Aha. Interesting point.
My Mum tells me that in 1968 there was HK flu and people were pretty nervous but got on with life. Obviously not on the same scale as this bastard, but makes you think. There was no daily doom bulletin of stats.
On the Beatles docco Macca coughed at one point and said “ooh lads I think I’ve got a bit of that Hong Kong flu”. Then they all shared a biffta and invented Get Back.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
There was little opposition though.
A bit like invading Ukraine then.
Some, at least, of the Ukrainians will fight. There is no love for the Russians especially in the East.
Some at least of the Hungarians fought, which is why around twenty thousand of them were killed (not two thousand as Wiki claims).
Ukraine could be a bloodbath
The only way Ukraine becomes a bloodbath is if NATO counter-invades in support of Kiev.
Which I do not believe will happen.
More likely all Russian assets overseas will be seized and the country cut off diplomatically.
We shouldn't counter invade but we should certainly bomb any areas of Ukraine that the legitimate Ukrainian government asks us to. If there happens to be an invading army there then that it on them.
If Russia can invade its neighbours and get away with only minor repercussions then it will go after the Baltics next. If we still don't do much it will go after Poland. We are going to have to draw the line eventually, so it's better for everyone if we do it sooner rather than later.
The Baltics and Poland are members of NATO. Ukraine isn't.
NATO is a security commitment. Just as the Budapest Memorandum was.
There is a very significant difference between a military alliance created to defend its members militarily and an agreement not to invade another country.
It is Russia that is breaking the Budapest Memorandum. Not NATO.
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 1h Hands up who's taking orders from a clown? Time for the #GreatBritishFuckOff
I made my mind up the other week with the plan b lite that i will not adhere to this and wont wear a facemask for instance or test myself every bloody day to just meet people. Just incredulous that most people on here still want to follow restrictions imposed by people who do not follwo them themselves cue the downign street party .
Anyway johnson has lost the by election on thursday due to this rubbish so at least I will be a bit richer
1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…
2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...
3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
Total left of Macron : 27 Total right of Macron : 47,5
No 2nd round Numbers
Today one junior minister resigned (judged guilty of « incomplete or falsified declaration of interests »). It won’t be front page news as nobody know he was a minister…
The first round is going to be excitingly close between those three, Pecresse, Le Pen and Zemmour.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
🚨🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Carrie Johnson DID host a flat party with several of her closest allies when the U.K. was in lockdown. The Telegraph have the names of the alleged guests, but won’t release them
However, Downing Street insiders working in the building that evening have told The Telegraph that an event did take place in the flat that night, which was attended by Mrs Johnson and several of her closest allies.
This newspaper has been given the names of six current and former senior government officials who were alleged to be present, as well as two other people known to be close to Mrs Johnson.
Harry Yorke @HarryYorke1 · 22m EXC: Lord Lister, the PM's former chief of staff, is alleged to have attended leaving drinks with Mr Johnson on Nov 27 for outgoing aide Cleo Watson, according to insiders present
He was one of several snr No 10 aides there with PM
South Africa COVID update: Cases continue to rise, more than double from last week
- New cases: 19,842 - Average: 13,493 (+1,612) - Positivity rate: 26.8% (+1.9) - In hospital: 4,252 (+454) - In ICU: 368 (+14) - New deaths: 36 - Average: 23 (+1)
Not good hospital numbers. ICU better
We sit and we pray
Oh yes - that's what you're going to do!
Actually, I probably will be doing just that. But with a glass of Chase gin in hand, for moral support
I'm drinking a Sicilian white blend of native Lucido and Insolia grapes called Lumari. It's very pleasant. The label tells me, which I now entirely believe, that it's a "vino bianco profumato e fresco con senori di pistachio e limone" (perfumed and fresh white wine with a hint of pistachio and lemon). It was a gift so I've no idea where it came from but have found it here https://www.winepoole.co.uk/white-wines/lumari-lucido-inzolia-colomba-bianca-sicily-2019.html
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
He really could have been a good PM, and yet his own foolishness has repeatedly undermined him.
I think he could have been PM for 10 years if it hadn't been for Covid-19. But then, Covid-19 would have presented enormous difficulties to any incumbent prime minister.
BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”
Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
There was little opposition though.
A bit like invading Ukraine then.
Neither the Hungarian Army nor government in 1956 was united and the resistance was more guerilla fighting, particularly when the Soviet forces regrouped and made a full invasion on November 3rd after their initial withdrawal on October 28th. The Ukrainian army and government, by contrast is several years battle hardened and highly motivated. If the Russians try and fight their way in, they will face significant casualties. More to the point Ukraine as a country would simply not accept a Russian diktat, and if it is difficult enough for the Ukrainian government to rule the country, it would be impossible for Russian satraps to impose their will for any length of time, especially if they come to power as invaders. What is dangerous about Putin´s sabre rattling is that it implies that he simply does not understand that Ukrainian independence is not a "Western fiction"; he seriously thinks that if he goes in the Russians will be greeted as Liberators. They won´t be, and there will be fierce resistance. Meanwhile the West will go ape shit and impose maximum sanctions while the Russian army gets seriously bogged down. That could be very serious indeed, and the wounded bear could lash out in several other directions claiming the pretext of stopping the mostly non existent Western support for the "Ukrainian puppet regime".
So yeah there is that World War III scenario. Meanwhile one third of the Russian population does not have access to such luxuries as mains drainage and a whole generation thinks the 70 year old Putin is as much their enemy as any of the paper tigers -USA or Europe or Ukraine- that Putin keeps suggesting. Most Russians do not think that any of them is their enemy, and many support the Belarusians against the oafish murderer Lukashenka. Problem for Putin is he could well lose and he is not psychologically equipped to handle the defiance of Ukraine and the punishment that the West would inflict, so Biden gave him the bone of the Zoom call, but basically we will be facing a full on war unless some of the cooler heads in the Kremlin high command can tell VVP what he does not want to hear and does not beleive anyway.
I think it must be over for Boris and the tories. They haven't learned anything from the Barnard Castle episode and have effectively walked in to a repeat of it, but worse; as there is a strong - I would say universal - suspicion that the prime minister is lying, and that matters will be fixed up to avoid a proper investigation. Meanwhile, Starmer is looking solid and reliable.
I think Boris must now be on the downhill slope, and his end is foreseeable. Not sure that the same is true for the Tories.
If Boris is out, say by between tomorrow the end of next year, we will look back on a curious period of politics. Lots of people who have no time for him morally or in general still thought, rightly, that at that particular time in 2019 only he could be PM, win an election and get Brexit done.
The problem with One Nation Toryism is that to a man they supported the EU. They were wrong to do so as was the entire establishment. That is now over. Apart from getting Brexit done populist Toryism has proved sub optimal at grown up boring politics.
Time to give Clarkeite, Heseltineian One Nation Toryism a chance again. I suspect Hunt is their only credible candidate.
I think it must be over for Boris and the tories. They haven't learned anything from the Barnard Castle episode and have effectively walked in to a repeat of it, but worse; as there is a strong - I would say universal - suspicion that the prime minister is lying, and that matters will be fixed up to avoid a proper investigation. Meanwhile, Starmer is looking solid and reliable.
I think Boris must now be on the downhill slope, and his end is foreseeable. Not sure that the same is true for the Tories.
If Boris is out, say by between tomorrow the end of next year, we will look back on a curious period of politics. Lots of people who have no time for him morally or in general still thought, rightly, that at that particular time in 2019 only he could be PM, win an election and get Brexit done.
The problem with One Nation Toryism is that to a man they supported the EU. They were wrong to do so as was the entire establishment. That is now over. Apart from getting Brexit done populist Toryism has proved sub optimal at grown up boring politics.
Time to give Clarkeite, Heseltineian One Nation Toryism a chance again. I suspect Hunt is their only credible candidate.
Return of the Farage would be a certainty, and the Red Wall would vote for him I reckon
I think it must be over for Boris and the tories. They haven't learned anything from the Barnard Castle episode and have effectively walked in to a repeat of it, but worse; as there is a strong - I would say universal - suspicion that the prime minister is lying, and that matters will be fixed up to avoid a proper investigation. Meanwhile, Starmer is looking solid and reliable.
I think Boris must now be on the downhill slope, and his end is foreseeable. Not sure that the same is true for the Tories.
If Boris is out, say by between tomorrow the end of next year, we will look back on a curious period of politics. Lots of people who have no time for him morally or in general still thought, rightly, that at that particular time in 2019 only he could be PM, win an election and get Brexit done.
The problem with One Nation Toryism is that to a man they supported the EU. They were wrong to do so as was the entire establishment. That is now over. Apart from getting Brexit done populist Toryism has proved sub optimal at grown up boring politics.
Time to give Clarkeite, Heseltineian One Nation Toryism a chance again. I suspect Hunt is their only credible candidate.
Return of the Farage would be a certainty, and the Red Wall would vote for him I reckon
Of course Farage returns. But with Brexit done clever politics should see him off from the centre right. The centre right needs more voters in order for the Tories to win. At the moment the centre left is commanding well over 50% of votes, the Tories 34-37%?? and falling. Tories need more Lab and LD voters to switch to the Tories. That's how politics works.
ATM all the centre left needs to do is to get their act together and stop splitting the vote and they win the country.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 · 17m Today's decision to impose Plan B was made by the quad - PM, Sunak, Javid, Barclay
The Cabinet were only told of the decision in a *phone call* afterwards.
There was "not even a hint" at Cabinet meeting on Tues that Plan B was even being considered.
THIS IS THEATRE NOT SCIENCE
To repeat what I said an hour earlier, this is why he's got to go now. The trust in all this crucial decision-making is up in the air like never before.
I actually think if the Tories don't get rid of Boris they're in for a real drubbing in 2024. I could even see Labour sneak through a small majority with a really big swing in votes and the Tories in high 20s or very low 30s. Even people who were previously sympathetic to Boris are now turning against him.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Speaking to Tory MPs tonight, I think they’ve reached a breaking point. Not on Boris himself (yet) but on new restrictions. Proper mutinous stuff. MPs openly texting whips “I’m not backing this”,
Be interesting to know where the public stand. I have no idea.
General view in the north London pub I’m in is: they can fuck right off.
Comments
I wish I wasn’t completely right
But Boris Johnson’s recent actions have undermined public trust.
His contempt for the public won’t be forgotten.
Serious times call for serious leadership.
I hope the Prime Minister takes his own guidance this time.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1468671331453521922
Good to see some opposition from the backbenches.
Do we have any opposition from the Opposition? 🤔
@IsabelOakeshott
·
1h
Hands up who's taking orders from a clown?
Time for the #GreatBritishFuckOff
Both I and the friend I strongly suspect I caught it off were still testing negative 4 days into symptoms. We thought cold.
Anecdata yes. And only 2. But. Is this an omicron feature?
Both double jabbed. She boosted too.
It is Russia that is breaking the Budapest Memorandum. Not NATO.
At one point they were reporting ‘180,000’ - which turns out to be a computer clusterfuque
Via @Telegraph
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1468669636640227339
#Ireland reports a weekly total of 81 #Covid19 deaths - the highest since March, and 50% higher than the previous week.
4,126 new cases of the disease revealed. That's 8.8% above last Wednesday's total.
Telegraph
Anyway johnson has lost the by election on thursday due to this rubbish so at least I will be a bit richer
Heart of stone...
Can we have a proper link?
He really could have been a good PM, and yet his own foolishness has repeatedly undermined him.
He can price that in, and take another slice of eastern Ukraine.
Yet.
This newspaper has been given the names of six current and former senior government officials who were alleged to be present, as well as two other people known to be close to Mrs Johnson.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/08/day-reckoning-many-heads-will-roll-public-anger-partygate-subsides/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AyMCfHZSs0rm
Me: Sure! What’s the Movie?
Wife: https://twitter.com/martinwoodward/status/1468675868490936334/photo/1
Harry Yorke
@HarryYorke1
·
22m
EXC: Lord Lister, the PM's former chief of staff, is alleged to have attended leaving drinks with Mr Johnson on Nov 27 for outgoing aide Cleo Watson, according to insiders present
He was one of several snr No 10 aides there with PM
NEW THREAD
https://www.winepoole.co.uk/white-wines/lumari-lucido-inzolia-colomba-bianca-sicily-2019.html
Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
17m
Today's decision to impose Plan B was made by the quad - PM, Sunak, Javid, Barclay
The Cabinet were only told of the decision in a *phone call* afterwards.
There was "not even a hint" at Cabinet meeting on Tues that Plan B was even being considered.
THIS IS THEATRE NOT SCIENCE
So yeah there is that World War III scenario. Meanwhile one third of the Russian population does not have access to such luxuries as mains drainage and a whole generation thinks the 70 year old Putin is as much their enemy as any of the paper tigers -USA or Europe or Ukraine- that Putin keeps suggesting. Most Russians do not think that any of them is their enemy, and many support the Belarusians against the oafish murderer Lukashenka. Problem for Putin is he could well lose and he is not psychologically equipped to handle the defiance of Ukraine and the punishment that the West would inflict, so Biden gave him the bone of the Zoom call, but basically we will be facing a full on war unless some of the cooler heads in the Kremlin high command can tell VVP what he does not want to hear and does not beleive anyway.
If Boris is out, say by between tomorrow the end of next year, we will look back on a curious period of politics. Lots of people who have no time for him morally or in general still thought, rightly, that at that particular time in 2019 only he could be PM, win an election and get Brexit done.
The problem with One Nation Toryism is that to a man they supported the EU. They were wrong to do so as was the entire establishment. That is now over. Apart from getting Brexit done populist Toryism has proved sub optimal at grown up boring politics.
Time to give Clarkeite, Heseltineian One Nation Toryism a chance again. I suspect Hunt is their only credible candidate.
ATM all the centre left needs to do is to get their act together and stop splitting the vote and they win the country.
Talk about putting the boot in!