Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Snap poll finds more than half saying BJ should resign – politicalbetting.com

1234579

Comments

  • Boris is more screwed than England in the Ashes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    MaxPB said:

    What's also really odd is that this is being justified by "1m infections between now and the end of December" which is basically our current run rate, so the scientists don't expect a major explosion in the virus, Delta or Omicron. The modelling wouldn't support it either because there's such high levels of population immunity and Delta or Omicron will run into sub-standard hosts far too often to really break out.

    All of this is being done to cover up Boris and his dodgy parties.

    Whitty's charts were quite startling

    Also this is 1m Omicron plus however many Delta can take before it disappears?

    So it could be 2m, about 100,000 a day. Which is a fuck of a lot, to be fair
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Ignore the Hospital admission stats from SA. 90% are incidental admissions

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/omicron-symptoms-far-milder-s-africa-hospital-group-ceo-says
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Omnium said:

    RobDGiraffes are heartless animals.
    I'm pretty sure that was the story, but happy to be corrected.. my memory isn't what it was.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    So whats the craic? I’m going to a gig tomorrow, do I have to wear a mask? Fuck that.

    No. Masks for theatres and cinemas now.

    Theatres! FFS.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    I presume my firm’s Xmas party next Friday will be cancelled then.
  • MaxPB said:

    France, with their vaccine passports and permanent plan b measures have got 12k in hospital with COVID right now, today. The UK has got 7k in hospital with COVID. The Netherland, another one who dodge the exit wave, have got more people in hospital with COVID than they did in their first wave. Germany, another one to dodge the exit wave, have got more people in the ICU than in either of the previous waves. Switzerland (my soon to be home), dodged the exit wave, have got more people in the ICU than ever before.
    What exit wave? We have not had an exit wave. Your LSHTM study did not claim we have had an exit wave. The reason why the NHS is so fragile is the relentless wall of patients - part Covid, part everything else that gets swept aside by Covid. Other countries haven't suffered that because they didn't follow your advice and lift all restrictions.

    You keep saying this because you want it to be true. But it isn't true. Its like listening to HYUFD click his jackboots together three times saying he still believes in fairies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited December 2021
    Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    We had pews as seat for out kitchen table. Dad demolished an old chapel in the 60's, and rescued some of the old pews. My brother still uses one as seats for side of his table, and my sister has the other somewhere.

    I miss them; many of my childhood memories revolve around mealtimes and those pews. But I've got the clock that hung above the table. ;)
    Devon friend of mine has them in his (former hall-) house's kitchen. Same provenance. Very flexible for different numbers, lovely old wood.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    These vaccine antibody data from Germany look pretty dire to me:
    https://twitter.com/CiesekSandra/status/1468465347519041539
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    HYUFD said:

    Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
    Love watching you spin like a top
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Ignore the Hospital admission stats from SA. 90% are incidental admissions

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/omicron-symptoms-far-milder-s-africa-hospital-group-ceo-says

    Is there a link for the first claim? It's not mentioned in the linked article.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    HYUFD said:

    Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
    Have you considered updating your avatar to Sir Mortimer Chris?
  • HYUFD said:

    Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
    This is the start. Tories are headed for the 20s at this rate
  • I remember when people called me crazy for saying restrictions would be back.

    Wrong again.

    I would have been delighted - ecstatic - for you to have been wrong. You and I both knew which way this was going. Sadly.
  • I would have been delighted - ecstatic - for you to have been wrong. You and I both knew which way this was going. Sadly.
    As would I. But every time I have warned and every time I have been shouted down.

    Hope you are well anyway.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    From the other side of the compass than me, do you imagine there's any way that Labour can mess up this lead in the next couple of years?

    Realistically Boris needs to be almost perfect AND needs Labour to mess up in order to win a majority.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Hold on there for a bit, though. We're not at December 2020 yet.
    Yes we are. Use your brain. Even tho many places will try and stay open, people will voluntarily stay away. And there won't be any office workers to do impromptu drinks (huge at this time of year)

    How many will go to a theatre or a panto? To sit in a mask for 3 hours? Cinemas ditto

    Everything will slowly shutter, as business evaporates, a chain reaction of minor calamity adding up to a big catastrophe

    There is nothing to be cheerful about, I'm afraid. Nothing at all
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    RobD said:

    Is there a link for the first claim? It's not mentioned in the linked article.
    It is about 2 thirds of the way down.
  • As I said earlier, increase personal tax rates for people who are unvaxxed. For a while, whilst they are unvaxxed. After a period, increase them for life.
    I could live with that
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
    Once again you make the mistake of drawing judgement from snap polls on the day.

    While we’ve been poring over every twist and turn, very many people are yet to get back from work.

    Are you incapable of learning from your past mistakes?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    It is about 2 thirds of the way down.
    Ah, sorry I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out.

    Interesting that the only criteria for being incidental is not needing oxygen treatment. Is this a lost in translation thing where incidental = mild?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Leon said:

    Whitty's charts were quite startling

    Also this is 1m Omicron plus however many Delta can take before it disappears?

    So it could be 2m, about 100,000 a day. Which is a fuck of a lot, to be fair
    Omicron will displace Delta rather than complement it, they both compete in the same pool for hosts because the immunity funnel is compatible. Even at 100k per day with Omicron that might only be something like 700-1000 hospitalisations per day which is not different to the current rate. A lot of Omicron will be reinfections (low severity) and among the double but not triple jabbed (also low severity). The most at risk will be the AZ/AZ people who haven't had their third doses, if anything we should have had a programme knocking on doors with Pfizer injections asking them to do their booster doses. That, more than anything else, will help the NHS.

    As with the firebreak, and tiered restrictions last year, I'm yet to understand what the government is trying to achieve with plan b. If they said "look we think Omicron is really bad and to stop it completely overwhelming the NHS we're going into a full lockdown, it sucks but we have evidence that it presents severe symptoms in the double jabbed 25m who haven't had third doses and we will reopen in January when we've got all 46m double jabbed people a third dose" I would have respected the honesty of it, though disagreed with the content. There is logic in that kind of action. This is simply a "lets be seen to be doing something" kind of measure which will achieve little and change nothing.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    RobD said:

    I'm pretty sure that was the story, but happy to be corrected.. my memory isn't what it was.
    Just alluding to a similar thing.
  • I presume my firm’s Xmas party next Friday will be cancelled then.

    In the office? Probably. But you haven't been banned from going out. Aren't most Christmas parties going out in town? Can still do that.
  • Omnium said:

    From the other side of the compass than me, do you imagine there's any way that Labour can mess up this lead in the next couple of years?

    Realistically Boris needs to be almost perfect AND needs Labour to mess up in order to win a majority.
    Yes, re-admitting Corbyn would be a good way to do that.

    Apart from that, the left has decided to marginalise itself and the polls are showing that by not being Corbyn and not being Johnson, Labour is capable of polling 40%.

    In 1997 they managed 43%, with a bit more effort they could legitimately beat that.
  • HYUFD said:

    Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
    Tories will probably recover to 38-40% at the GE under any leader (even Johnson) but its still not a great poll for the Tories as its the beginning of a sustained pincer movement.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Carnyx said:

    Devon friend of mine has them in his (former hall-) house's kitchen. Same provenance. Very flexible for different numbers, lovely old wood.
    I haven't been able to get one, but the sort of schooldesks kids used when I were knee-high to a grasshopper (*) are apparently very good for kids to work from. A friend of ours says theirs is brilliant.

    (*) The sort that had inkpots and a lifting lid
  • I've always said that if Johnson cocks up, Starmer is the best opposition. And we are now seeing that.

    I can legitimately believe the Tories get into the low 30s or high 20s in the next GE, 1997 repeat - if things go even more badly.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    HYUFD said:

    Just 4 points ahead is not much for Starmer after the barrage of attacks Boris has faced. Ed Miliband in 2012 and Kinnock pre 1990 were often 10+ points ahead, Blair was 20+ points ahead pre 1997
    I think you may find that those numbers will be eclipsed as Johnson´s government faces a wave of rage and contempt. The pathetic attempt to use the Plan B announcement as a distraction from Partygate is so transparent that it is more likely to reduce support than boost it. It is a cowardly and contemptible way to behave, and that is a trope that the British voters are getting quite familiar with. They are also getting quite sick of it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Yes we are. Use your brain. Even tho many places will try and stay open, people will voluntarily stay away. And there won't be any office workers to do impromptu drinks (huge at this time of year)

    How many will go to a theatre or a panto? To sit in a mask for 3 hours? Cinemas ditto

    Everything will slowly shutter, as business evaporates, a chain reaction of minor calamity adding up to a big catastrophe

    There is nothing to be cheerful about, I'm afraid. Nothing at all
    Lockdowns are quite different for the economy, and also for social life, from restrictions. There's always something to be cheerful about.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    RobD said:

    Ah, sorry I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out.

    Interesting that the only criteria for being incidental is not needing oxygen treatment. Is this a lost in translation thing where incidental = mild?
    Isn't the need to be in Hospital to have oxygen
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    MaxPB said:

    What's also really odd is that this is being justified by "1m infections between now and the end of December" which is basically our current run rate, so the scientists don't expect a major explosion in the virus, Delta or Omicron. The modelling wouldn't support it either because there's such high levels of population immunity and Delta or Omicron will run into sub-standard hosts far too often to really break out.

    All of this is being done to cover up Boris and his dodgy parties.

    A million infections by Omicron by the end of the month would be - on average over the next 3 weeks - nearly 50 TIMES the current estimate of the infection rate (1000 a day).

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I haven't been able to get one, but the sort of schooldesks kids used when I were knee-high to a grasshopper (*) are apparently very good for kids to work from. A friend of ours says theirs is brilliant.

    (*) The sort that had inkpots and a lifting lid
    Flat or tilted top? My late father made several of different heights.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    edited December 2021
    theProle said:

    And which appear have had zero effect on either the case or vaccination rate in Scotland. The reality is this won't make any difference to the outcomes, it just means more miserable people, ruined business, and a "papers please" society.

    Restrictions have always been the wrong answer to this pandemic, but at least last time round there was a point "we're waiting for the vaccines" / "we're rolling out the vaccines". There is no point now - we have vaccines, we've double jabbed almost everyone at any real risk, and triple jabbed the most vulnerable.

    Polling on this is massively skewed because - most people want to WFH for reasons unrelated to the pandemic, and those least in favour of restrictions are least likely to be polled because they will be out living their lives rather than cowering at home being rung by opinion pollsters.
    Scotland is top of the vaccination rate (1st, 2nd & booster) and bottom of the case rate in the UK isn't it?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited December 2021
    Stocky said:

    Going to a football match means either proving you are vaccinated or taking a LFT prior to entry - is that right? How practical is that at the turnstiles?

    Quite practical if it were limited to vaccines only, but it needs a longer lead in time so that it is not done at the turnstiles themselves. Everything's booked online now, and that makes it practical.

    i.e. 25,000 of those going to my PL club are season ticket holders. The rest of the home supporters are members who pay £35 per year to get priority access to tickets. Ditto away supporters. It's virtually impossible for anyone without one or the other to get a ticket, but in the rare matches when at present tickets go on general sale they could cover the rest by introducing a membership scheme with no priority access for tickets. Then you just need the season ticket holder/member to register their vaccine status once, well in advance of match day, and allow tickets to be issued only to those who have done so. Then you also have it on record for future matches, no need to register again.

    But the insistence on allowing a one-off lateral flow test messes all that up. Chaos on the day I think if you've got to cater for last minute LFTs at the turnstiles.

    By the way, when I went to see the Wolves on Saturday, once again no more than 2% of fans were wearing masks even in the crowded-like-sardine indoor areas behind the stands. And given the age demographic and the fact that so many were prepared to flout the regulations, a high proportion of those were likely to have been unvaccinated.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106

    I've always said that if Johnson cocks up, Starmer is the best opposition. And we are now seeing that.

    I can legitimately believe the Tories get into the low 30s or high 20s in the next GE, 1997 repeat - if things go even more badly.

    Starmer just needs to be seen as vaguely truthful and competent. I think more would look at Labour in the current context (and I’ve never voted Labour in my life - but that doesn’t matter according to some people on here)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Are LFTs still free of charge?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Cicero said:

    I think you may find that those numbers will be eclipsed as Johnson´s government faces a wave of rage and contempt. The pathetic attempt to use the Plan B announcement as a distraction from Partygate is so transparent that it is more likely to reduce support than boost it. It is a cowardly and contemptible way to behave, and that is a trope that the British voters are getting quite familiar with. They are also getting quite sick of it.
    HY always told us that it didn’t matter that the clown would be a dishonest incompetent in office, provided that he beat Corbyn and (supposedly) got Brexit done.

    The time has arrived for him to own the tails side of his coin.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,633

    I remember when people called me crazy for saying restrictions would be back.

    Wrong again.

    I missed your prediction of omicron. That’s the reason for this, not anything else. We need to see how this plays out in our well vaccinated population. 21 million boosted, including the most at risk. That’s the key.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited December 2021
    1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…

    2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...

    3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country


    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1468653871794778112?s=20


    And yet, case rates not remarkably different from England....



    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1466739582930665475?s=20

    Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Isn't the need to be in Hospital to have oxygen
    A good question. Depends what they mean by oxygen treatment. These all seem to involve some aspect of it:

    https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0008/
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    tlg86 said:

    Are LFTs still free of charge?

    Yep, one pack containing 7 tests can be ordered each day for free.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Scotland is top of the vaccination rate (1st, 2nd & booster) and bottom of the case rate in the UK isn't it?
    Buit it has also varied in case rate out of step of the rest of hte UK - so there are other factors operating and it's impossible to refute the prima facie hypothesis that masks do work by helping reduce the infection rate.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Quite practical if it were limited to vaccines only, but it needs a longer lead in time so that it is not done at the turnstiles themselves. Everything's booked online now, and that makes it practical.

    i.e. 25,000 of those going to my PL club are season ticket holders. The rest of the home supporters are members who pay £35 per year to get priority access to tickets. Ditto away supporters. It's virtually impossible for anyone without one or the other to get a ticket, but in the rare matches when at present tickets go on general sale they could cover the rest by introducing a membership scheme with no priority access for tickets. Then you just need the season ticket holder/member to register their vaccine status once, well in advance of match day, and allow tickets to be issued only to those who have done so.

    But the insistence on allowing a one-off lateral flow test messes all that up. Chaos on the day I think if you've got to cater for last minute LFTs at the turnstiles.

    By the way, when I went to see the Wolves on Saturday, once again no more than 2% of fans were wearing masks even in the crowded-like-sardine indoor areas behind the stands. And given the age demographic and the fact that so many were prepared to flout the regulations, a high proportion of those were likely to have been unvaccinated.
    So I had a glance at the iPad of the girl surveying the Emirates a few games ago and I reckon c.80-90% of records were marked as green (i.e. vaccinated).

    Now, lets deal with this part...

    Then you just need the season ticket holder/member to register their vaccine status once, well in advance of match day, and allow tickets to be issued only to those who have done so.

    This would require proof of ID on the turnstiles.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    Yes, re-admitting Corbyn would be a good way to do that.

    Apart from that, the left has decided to marginalise itself and the polls are showing that by not being Corbyn and not being Johnson, Labour is capable of polling 40%.

    In 1997 they managed 43%, with a bit more effort they could legitimately beat that.
    I can't see that Labour will achieve big numbers. Their problem is economics. Reeves though is easily the best Labour person in that role ... er ever! Obviously I don't think she's good because I'd vote Labour if I did, but she's not the ghastly awfulness of (say) Brown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Chris said:

    A million infections by Omicron by the end of the month would be - on average over the next 3 weeks - nearly 50 TIMES the current estimate of the infection rate (1000 a day).

    This thing will displace Delta, not complement it. as has happened with all previous variants.
  • Have south Africa imposed any restrictions to try and slow spread?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…

    2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...

    3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country


    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1468653871794778112?s=20


    And yet, case rates not remarkably different from England....



    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1466739582930665475?s=20

    Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....

    Have a look at Malmesbury's charts of case rate per population, and the order of geographical areas. At the moment Scotland is generally low down. I'm not sure what is going on here.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Every SA doctor that has been interviewed over the past week, including today has said that Omicron is currently much milder and the situation is totally different to the Beta & Delta waves. There is no lockdown at all in South Africa.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Has anyone remembered that:

    Allegra Stratton and Ellie Price were the final two candidates for PM's spokesman.

    Ellie Price did miles better in the mock press conference yet Boris chose Allegra - supposedly because Carrie wanted Allegra.

    If Boris had chosen Ellie, the whole thing may never have happened!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Chris said:

    A million infections by Omicron by the end of the month would be - on average over the next 3 weeks - nearly 50 TIMES the current estimate of the infection rate (1000 a day).

    Yes, but Omicron displaces Delta. It doesn't infect in addition, and the numbers will be based on population sampling rather than the testing scheme which covers 40-50% of actual infections. Delta infections today are ~80k per day by the ONS numbers. At 1m Omicron infections they're suggesting it will hit a similar rate by the end of December.
  • BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned.
    Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1468642094105432072?s=20
  • That's fine, you're not bothered. So vote Remain then. That's entirely valid. I had no philosophical objection to Remain.

    But that wasn't the nations choice. You were a minority and lost the vote. A majority were bothered so that's the decision made.
    So you think of sovereignty within the EU like money in a piggy bank? You have to smash the piggy bank to get the sovereignty out. Taking that analogy I wonder what we've actually spent our sovereignty on and was it worth destroying the piggy bank.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    1/ Re UK gov announcement of Covid Plan B today, all these protections are already in place in Scotland and have helped us get Delta cases down. Tough question we all face in period ahead is whether these protections will be strong enough against a rapidly spreading Omicron variant…

    2/ Even if (and it is still if) Omicron doesn’t cause more severe disease, the numbers of people who might be infected by its faster spread will create big challenges for NHS and economy - so we need to consider carefully (but quite quickly) what proportionate response needed...

    3/ In meantime, all of us complying strictly with current protections will help. And even if you feel angry with a politician just now, please remember just how important compliance is for the health & safety of you, your loved ones and the country


    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1468653871794778112?s=20


    And yet, case rates not remarkably different from England....



    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1466739582930665475?s=20

    Pretending this is a magic "cure all" may be a tad optimistic.....

    Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does

    But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.

    I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Carnyx said:

    Flat or tilted top? My late father made several of different heights.
    Tilted top. Ink-pot hole in the right-hand corner. Brass hinges. Just thinking about it brings back the sights and smells of my old school.

    Having observed the little 'un learn to write, I am of the (scientifically unproven) opinion that slanted surfaces are far better than flat ones to write or draw on. At one point, I gave him my old draughtsman's board to write on, on its lowest setting. Until he drew all over it in permanent ink ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    IanB2 said:

    HY always told us that it didn’t matter that the clown would be a dishonest incompetent in office, provided that he beat Corbyn and (supposedly) got Brexit done.

    The time has arrived for him to own the tails side of his coin.
    He beat Corbyn and got Brexit done, as I voted for him to do.

    Anything beyond that is a bonus given the only PM to have won a general election after 10 years of their party in power since 1918 was Major in 1992. Plus even then Kinnock led most polls before that election
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,633
    Chris said:

    These vaccine antibody data from Germany look pretty dire to me:
    https://twitter.com/CiesekSandra/status/1468465347519041539

    You are once again ignoring the other parts of the immune system. This data is also not in line with other studies that are emerging.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited December 2021

    I'm really concerned by the blurring of "I don't trust the Govenment" with "I'm not willing to do what I can to slow the pandemic". It's absolutely obvious that we should vaccinate and boost as quickly as possible, and we shouldn't take any unnecessary risks in mingling. Whether you love, hate, adore or despise Boris Johnson is completely irrelevant to that, and it's also irrelevant whether an illegal party was held or not.

    But it's also why it's obvious he must go, now. He's blurring multiple arguments together, for everyone.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Leon said:

    Sturgeon can blithely lock down Scotland because she doesn't have to pay for it. London does

    But, she is surely hinting at the extremely obvious. This will not be enough. There will be proper lockdowns.

    I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
    And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Every SA doctor that has been interviewed over the past week, including today has said that Omicron is currently much milder and the situation is totally different to the Beta & Delta waves. There is no lockdown at all in South Africa.

    You're an idiot


    Here's a head of a South African ICU. Is she saying "this is much milder"?


    "Head of ICU at Chris Hani Baragwanatnath Hospital in Gauteng, South Africa, Professor Rudo Mathivha says they are seeing many children arriving at hospital with Covid-19 with mild to severe symptoms and requiring oxygen."

    https://twitter.com/Sam_BTT/status/1467576414882910208?s=20
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772

    I'm really concerned by the blurring of "I don't trust the Govenment" with "I'm not willing to do what I can to slow the pandemic". It's absolutely obvious that we should vaccinate and boost as quickly as possible, and we shouldn't take any unnecessary risks in mingling. Whether you love, hate, adore or despise Boris Johnson is completely irrelevant to that, and it's also irrelevant whether an illegal party was held or not.

    Spot on Nick.

    But I don't think most of the public will blur the two.

    Yes, political anoraks on here will blur them. As will obsessives whipping themselves up into hysteria about restrictions.

    But the public are quite different as they don't think it's a political issue.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    RobD said:

    A good question. Depends what they mean by oxygen treatment. These all seem to involve some aspect of it:

    https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0008/
    If they do not need oxygen then they are not in hospital for Covid. SA ran out of oxygen in the last wave. These patients are breathing Room Air.

    Also the article points out that those who have died with Covid in their hospitals had significant comorbidities
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399

    Every SA doctor that has been interviewed over the past week, including today has said that Omicron is currently much milder and the situation is totally different to the Beta & Delta waves. There is no lockdown at all in South Africa.

    We need to be careful taking medical inspirations from South Africa, given their (under Mbeki) behaviour wrt AIDS ...

    He is someone who should drop straight down to the warm, blazing place ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    Leon said:

    You're an idiot


    Here's a head of a South African ICU. Is she saying "this is much milder"?


    "Head of ICU at Chris Hani Baragwanatnath Hospital in Gauteng, South Africa, Professor Rudo Mathivha says they are seeing many children arriving at hospital with Covid-19 with mild to severe symptoms and requiring oxygen."

    https://twitter.com/Sam_BTT/status/1467576414882910208?s=20
    Most South Africans are not double vaccinated unless most Brits, let alone had their boosters. What that shows is the need to give more vaccines to South Africa
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,162

    Every SA doctor that has been interviewed over the past week, including today has said that Omicron is currently much milder and the situation is totally different to the Beta & Delta waves. There is no lockdown at all in South Africa.

    Whilst not disagreeing with your view that Omicron is probably not the monster people fear there is a potentially major difference in comparing SA with UK in that SA is in summer so lower risk from being cooped up indoors socialising and the knock on effect of risk of spread to the more vulnerable so the pressure for lockdown would be less there I would have thought.

    But I’m hoping it’s no much worse than current strain and this is an over-reaction.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned.
    Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1468642094105432072?s=20

    Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the invasion of Hungary in 1956 would be a fair match for it. That amounted to 17 divisions or about 350,000 men.
  • Leon said:

    I suspect their big concern is actually that the most severe lockdowns won't be enough, and then what?
    Some people will die, most won't.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Tilted top. Ink-pot hole in the right-hand corner. Brass hinges. Just thinking about it brings back the sights and smells of my old school.

    Having observed the little 'un learn to write, I am of the (scientifically unproven) opinion that slanted surfaces are far better than flat ones to write or draw on. At one point, I gave him my old draughtsman's board to write on, on its lowest setting. Until he drew all over it in permanent ink ...
    Ah, it was flat top tables my dad made - one recently repainted for the neighbour's grandchild.

    Re tilted top ones, ESA used to make them and much else under the Esavian trade name - can be found on the net, including the cast iron framed ones with flip up seats. I don't fit in any more though ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    I don't support compulsory vaccination, but if unvaccinated people end up in hospital maybe they ought to contribute to some of the costs of their treatment if they're able to do so. They are idiots for not having the jab.
  • HYUFD said:

    Most South Africans are not double vaccinated unless most Brits, let alone had their boosters. What that shows is the need to give more vaccines to South Africa
    SA have been binning vaccines because of low take-up. Vaccine supply is not the issue.
  • Stereodog said:

    So you think of sovereignty within the EU like money in a piggy bank? You have to smash the piggy bank to get the sovereignty out. Taking that analogy I wonder what we've actually spent our sovereignty on and was it worth destroying the piggy bank.
    I have tried to understand Philip's attitude and arguement but I feel it has changed over the last 2 months. I am obviously not bright enough to follow it. I can't get past the idea that economically we are up the creek without a paddle and the EU won't need to bend over backwards for us much longer.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Only heard of Allegra Stratton at 10am and she's gone by 4pm. What is she, a Watford manager?
  • The Met will NOT investigate the Downing Street party.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    boulay said:

    Whilst not disagreeing with your view that Omicron is probably not the monster people fear there is a potentially major difference in comparing SA with UK in that SA is in summer so lower risk from being cooped up indoors socialising and the knock on effect of risk of spread to the more vulnerable so the pressure for lockdown would be less there I would have thought.

    But I’m hoping it’s no much worse than current strain and this is an over-reaction.
    Oddly this Doctor reports that the children being admitted with Covid are mainly incidental infections as there is another upper respiratory infection going round in SA.

    Also does this Dr who is in the epicentre of the outbreak look worried.

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/12/08/south-african-doctor-coetzee-omicron-patients-stats-newday-vpx.cnn
  • Anyone else get the feeling

    Sean Thomas Knox

    has tied himself in

    Hoax Names Knots
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    The Met will NOT investigate the Downing Street party.

    My, that was a quick investigation, would fit in an episode of Inspector Morse.
  • The Met will NOT investigate the Downing Street party.

    Why?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited December 2021
    MikeL said:

    Spot on Nick.

    But I don't think most of the public will blur the two.

    Yes, political anoraks on here will blur them. As will obsessives whipping themselves up into hysteria about restrictions.

    But the public are quite different as they don't think it's a political issue.
    I don't agree with this at all. The general public is on balance more in favour of health-led restrictions than the Tories, or indeed the PB average, partly because UK culture emphasises responsibility and public propriety.

    But that doesn't mean that Johnson isn't doing huge damage to people's trust in the measures. What you'll then see is increasing lip-service being paid to restrictions, and more and more people, privately and semi-privately and around the edges of all this, circumventing them at any cost.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    MaxPB said:

    And then the inevitable, 1% of the idiot unvaccinated and 0.5% the unlucky vulnerable die of COVID. I know it seems harsh but this is going to happen everywhere with Omicron. We're all going to get it now, I'm thankful that I'm in good health and have no underlying conditions but ultimately the reality of the world has changed due to COVID.
    Sky News now talking about 4th and 5th jabs over the next couple of years, boffin agreeing. This is it. Years and years of this shite
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297

    BREAKING: A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale “not seen in Europe since World War 2”, the new head of the armed forces has warned.
    Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described the Ukraine crisis - with a build of tens of thousands of Russian troops - as “deeply worrying”


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1468642094105432072?s=20

    I bet Putin goes ahead with the plan. The West has never been weaker than it is now, especially with the new German government taking office today.
  • The Met will NOT investigate the Downing Street party.

    Dick is useless......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Carnyx said:

    My, that was a quick investigation, would fit in an episode of Inspector Morse.
    How's it a quick investigation? They said they weren't going to investigate it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Some people will die, most won't.
    Yes, this is likely to increase the death rate in the UK by 30-50k per year for a couple of years while natural immunity and wide spectrum vaccines are developed. With something as rapidly spreading as Omicron I'm not even sure the NHS would have time to react, I expect it would be like a very bad flu year with people dying in their houses and care homes.

    Displacing infections into the future made sense when the future had a miracle cure (the vaccine), now that the miracle cure is here and works, displacing infections into the future is simply displacing infections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Why?
    Dick's fellow feeling with A Johnson?
  • Only heard of Allegra Stratton at 10am and she's gone by 4pm. What is she, a Watford manager?

    I thought you were both in the Bozo platinum fan club?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Anyone else get the feeling

    Sean Thomas Knox

    has tied himself in

    Hoax Names Knots

    Is that an actual anagram? How brilliant

    I miss that dude. He was always so calm and soothing
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    tlg86 said:

    So I had a glance at the iPad of the girl surveying the Emirates a few games ago and I reckon c.80-90% of records were marked as green (i.e. vaccinated).

    Now, lets deal with this part...

    Then you just need the season ticket holder/member to register their vaccine status once, well in advance of match day, and allow tickets to be issued only to those who have done so.

    This would require proof of ID on the turnstiles.
    Indeed. It is common practice for Season ticket holders to share tickets, for example Fox Jr and Fox jr2 used my pair of tickets when I couldn't get to the Watford match. Yes, it is against the rules, but never enforced.

    When they were piloting covid passports at Leicester, they didn't cross refer to the ticket itself. In practice that is
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021

    Anyone else get the feeling

    Sean Thomas Knox

    has tied himself in

    Hoax Names Knots

    That is rather good!

    Have a “like”
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615
    Carnyx said:

    Buit it has also varied in case rate out of step of the rest of hte UK - so there are other factors operating and it's impossible to refute the prima facie hypothesis that masks do work by helping reduce the infection rate.
    Different holiday times? Although, local authority areas seem to switch between higher and lower rates, with no obvious cause.
  • I'm really concerned by the blurring of "I don't trust the Govenment" with "I'm not willing to do what I can to slow the pandemic". It's absolutely obvious that we should vaccinate and boost as quickly as possible, and we shouldn't take any unnecessary risks in mingling. Whether you love, hate, adore or despise Boris Johnson is completely irrelevant to that, and it's also irrelevant whether an illegal party was held or not.

    The best question in the press conference, by a country mile, was asked by the first member of the public "why won't you impose compulsory vaccination when you will impose compulsory curtailment of civil liberties?" Answer came there none.

    Personally I wouldn't impose compulsory vaccination - but i don't know a good answer to the question.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    I'm really concerned by the blurring of "I don't trust the Govenment" with "I'm not willing to do what I can to slow the pandemic". It's absolutely obvious that we should vaccinate and boost as quickly as possible, and we shouldn't take any unnecessary risks in mingling. Whether you love, hate, adore or despise Boris Johnson is completely irrelevant to that, and it's also irrelevant whether an illegal party was held or not.

    I think your fears are mostly unfounded. People really are listening and acting sensibly.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Why?
    Happened in the past
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,283
    edited December 2021

    Why?
    Worried about leak of Met xmas party pics?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Dick is useless......
    Dick's flopped. She's had to withdraw. She's hanging around though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297

    I remember when people called me crazy for saying restrictions would be back.

    Wrong again.

    I think most of us always suspected they would be back.
  • Why?
    Met police said it has not received evidence of a Downing Street party and will not launch an investigation

    https://twitter.com/Fhamiltontimes/status/1468659732101701644
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644
    edited December 2021
    boulay said:

    Whilst not disagreeing with your view that Omicron is probably not the monster people fear there is a potentially major difference in comparing SA with UK in that SA is in summer so lower risk from being cooped up indoors socialising and the knock on effect of risk of spread to the more vulnerable so the pressure for lockdown would be less there I would have thought.

    But I’m hoping it’s no much worse than current strain and this is an over-reaction.
    I am posting from a quarantine ward near Heathrow, having just returned from South Africa.

    I have no special knowledge about the subject but can confirm that the attitude there seems to be that Omicron symptoms are relatively mild. They do however take routine precautions more seriously. Masks are much more commonly worn there than they are here, the regulations are stricter and more strenuously imposed.

    Their overall rates of infection are much lower than ours.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    The best question in the press conference, by a country mile, was asked by the first member of the public "why won't you impose compulsory vaccination when you will impose compulsory curtailment of civil liberties?" Answer came there none.

    Personally I wouldn't impose compulsory vaccination - but i don't know a good answer to the question.
    A question I have been asking for weeks...
This discussion has been closed.