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How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    MikeL said:

    If JRM video is a few days old has the media fully digested it?

    The key is that a group of people are in shot, not socially distanced and JRM is laughing about it.

    I don't see how he gets out of that.

    It's a party held recently. No one is breaking any rules. He is having a laugh. This is allowed: you might have noticed that the pubs are open and quite busy, of late

    The party story is bad for the Tories - potentially very bad - but the JRM video is a cul de sac and a distraction.
  • Just checking, has the point been reached when Biden & co are officially embarrassed at being associated with the UK over Afghanistan?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    The timing of the FCO leak is intriguing. Totally discredit the deputy PM and foreign office at a moment that a wholly separate leak is causing massive political danger for the PM.

    In other news Russian troops are amassed by the Ukrainian border…
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
    I doubt he was there. Perhaps I am wrong. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunak was. Given his personal links to Allegra Stratton (who was there) through James Forsyth. There’s going to be a huge scalp from this. If I was a bettor, I’d be putting my money on Javid to take over right now.
    If there is any proof any Tory politician was there, that Tory is doomed

    If Carrie Johnson was there, that's a thorny one to work out. You can't sack a PM's wife
    Boris has automatic protection as people expect him to break the rules, he will get through this regardless. He is correct in assuming the rules don't apply to him.
    "Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other."

    NS is another week.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cue for outbreak of letter writing.

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1468335244227092480
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    NP - you're just about my favourite poster on PB.

    I really think that your loyalty to Corbyn is massively misplaced. He's a bad man, and you certainly aren't.

    I'm a Tory, but if there is to be a Labour government again then it'll need people like you, behind the scenes perhaps, making it work. I've no idea what sort of madness causes you, a sensible person, to ally yourself with a nutter, but please, please get out of that.
    Nick's a good man, but he's a Red and that's tribal.
    Sure, there is tribalism on all sides, we see it with the PB Tory apologists who think it all a bit of a laugh that we are led by amoral kleptocrats.

    Nick also knows Jezza personally from his days in London, when he lived in Islington. I think Corbyn would be quite a convivial companion provided the conversation kept well clear of Middle East politics. I have always found Jezza a bit of a curates egg, but he certainly has a wonderful empathetic manner in some situations.

    I try to find something positive in every person, though it can be quite a challenge.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    If JRM video is a few days old has the media fully digested it?

    The key is that a group of people are in shot, not socially distanced and JRM is laughing about it.

    I don't see how he gets out of that.

    But we're not social distancing etc now? Nothing has been locked down and everything is still open.

    I suppose they could all be in trouble for not masking up but...?
    Ah OK - I thought JRM video was also of last year.

    If it's from this week then I agree that may be different.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    I was first aid trained by, amongst others, Harold Shipman.

    Truthfully, I once asked how his day had been and he replied that "an old lady had died on him", which I have to say was a bit of a conversation stopper even without the later context.
  • Some + news on Omi:



    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    12m
    Most boosted people would fend this off nicely, even with the 40x drop. So get boosted!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,340
    GIN1138 said:

    I'm curious as to the role of Allegra Stratton. I rated her highly as a presenter on Newsnight etc., and would never have guessed her politics. I was surprised when she took on the role for BJ, but less so when I found out she was married to the Spectator editor.

    Nevertheless, I don't think she would be comfortable telling lies on behalf of the government, and I suspect that's why she's been sidelined. The ITV video supports this - I think she's laughing at the absurdity of it all, rather than because she things breaking the rules is funny. I doubt she leaked the footage herself, but I certainly think she knows exactly what's going on.

    Allegra used to work for ITV as well and the video was leaked to ITV...

    But I still think Cummings prints are all over this.
    You could well be right. But it just feels as if there's a bit of a pincer movement among a variety of Tory folk, both parliamentary and non-parliamentary, who have had enough of Boris and are plotting his demise. Stratton may be one of them; she's very, very bright, and I can't imagine she's got much time for him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    MikeL said:

    If JRM video is a few days old has the media fully digested it?

    The key is that a group of people are in shot, not socially distanced and JRM is laughing about it.

    I don't see how he gets out of that.

    Why would they be socially distanced?

    There's no social distancing rules right now!
  • Mirror:




    EXCLUSIVE: Tory Gavin Williamson hosted party as millions of Brits faced Christmas Covid ban misery
  • Imagine how much funding Nadine Dorries would have had to have taken away from the BBC if they had got the scoop instead of ITV.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1468336477272690689
  • If Starmer misses this open goal tomorrow he should resign and let Reeves, Philipson or Cooper take over.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,899
    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    Scott_xP said:
    “What did I tell you to do?”

    “Don’t invite Dom to the super secret party.”

    “And what did you do?”

    “Invited Dom to the super secret party.” https://t.co/eCX2rX3fHP
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,327
    MikeL said:

    Surely the first person who 100% has to resign is Rees-Mogg.

    He is on film laughing about partying and social distancing with people in shot not socially distanced.

    100% caught red handed.

    Now Boris may also be in trouble but not 100% - he may not have been at the Downing Street party. And it could be argued that Stratton was just responding to a joke question. So the issue here is whether the Downing Street party is on film.

    You know the Rees Mogg film is this week don’t you? No social distancing at the moment...
  • GIN1138 said:

    I'm curious as to the role of Allegra Stratton. I rated her highly as a presenter on Newsnight etc., and would never have guessed her politics. I was surprised when she took on the role for BJ, but less so when I found out she was married to the Spectator editor.

    Nevertheless, I don't think she would be comfortable telling lies on behalf of the government, and I suspect that's why she's been sidelined. The ITV video supports this - I think she's laughing at the absurdity of it all, rather than because she things breaking the rules is funny. I doubt she leaked the footage herself, but I certainly think she knows exactly what's going on.

    Allegra used to work for ITV as well and the video was leaked to ITV...

    But I still think Cummings prints are all over this.
    You could well be right. But it just feels as if there's a bit of a pincer movement among a variety of Tory folk, both parliamentary and non-parliamentary, who have had enough of Boris and are plotting his demise. Stratton may be one of them; she's very, very bright, and I can't imagine she's got much time for him.
    Arguably I can imagine she is still fecked off that she was persuade to leave Sunak's up and coming team to be the 'never actually happened' official spokesperson for the PM in order to be shunted to doing a bit of PR for the Glasgow COP event that no one now even remembers.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,327
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    If JRM video is a few days old has the media fully digested it?

    The key is that a group of people are in shot, not socially distanced and JRM is laughing about it.

    I don't see how he gets out of that.

    But we're not social distancing etc now? Nothing has been locked down and everything is still open.

    I suppose they could all be in trouble for not masking up but...?
    Ah OK - I thought JRM video was also of last year.

    If it's from this week then I agree that may be different.
    May be different? Come on, it completely changes the context.
  • Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    NP - you're just about my favourite poster on PB.

    I really think that your loyalty to Corbyn is massively misplaced. He's a bad man, and you certainly aren't.

    I'm a Tory, but if there is to be a Labour government again then it'll need people like you, behind the scenes perhaps, making it work. I've no idea what sort of madness causes you, a sensible person, to ally yourself with a nutter, but please, please get out of that.
    Nick's a good man, but he's a Red and that's tribal.
    Sure, there is tribalism on all sides, we see it with the PB Tory apologists who think it all a bit of a laugh that we are led by amoral kleptocrats.

    Nick also knows Jezza personally from his days in London, when he lived in Islington. I think Corbyn would be quite a convivial companion provided the conversation kept well clear of Middle East politics. I have always found Jezza a bit of a curates egg, but he certainly has a wonderful empathetic manner in some situations.

    I try to find something positive in every person, though it can be quite a challenge.
    Of course all politics is tribal, but there isn't the 'brotherhood' anywhere else that we see in Communist/Socialists.

    They still have a Socialist fist salute for each other ffs.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,587
    MikeL said:

    Surely the first person who 100% has to resign is Rees-Mogg.

    He is on film laughing about partying and social distancing with people in shot not socially distanced.

    100% caught red handed.

    There are no social distancing laws. He's been caught red handed not breaking the law.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,340
    moonshine said:

    The timing of the FCO leak is intriguing. Totally discredit the deputy PM and foreign office at a moment that a wholly separate leak is causing massive political danger for the PM.

    In other news Russian troops are amassed by the Ukrainian border…

    It's not an FCO leak, is it? I assume you're referring to the submission to the Select Committee by a civil servant; all such submissions are published, I think. That's not a leak.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited December 2021
    This really is a catastrophically bad timing from the government's point of view, as well as anything else, because they were just emerging from the previous sleaze story, with what looked like a more friendly new Mail editor to hep them along, also. Now one story just merges into another.
  • Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    If JRM video is a few days old has the media fully digested it?

    The key is that a group of people are in shot, not socially distanced and JRM is laughing about it.

    I don't see how he gets out of that.

    It's a party held recently. No one is breaking any rules. He is having a laugh. This is allowed: you might have noticed that the pubs are open and quite busy, of late

    The party story is bad for the Tories - potentially very bad - but the JRM video is a cul de sac and a distraction.
    Logically, and in a fair world yes, and for the vast majority JRMs comments won't change any minds. But there is a not insignificant proportion of the electorate, a few %, that are older, more cautious, will have voted Conservative in the past, would never have voted for Corbyn, but dislike the current PM and believe these things are important.

    Their votes are slipping further away each week at the moment. Not a problem if the red wall holds, very much a problem if the Northern Powerhouse slips back to the Northern Workhouse.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Boris’s “nanny” arrangements over Xmas were also highly dubious.

    Nanny in question just happened to be a good friend of Carrie’s.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeL said:

    Surely the first person who 100% has to resign is Rees-Mogg.

    He is on film laughing about partying and social distancing with people in shot not socially distanced.

    100% caught red handed.

    Now Boris may also be in trouble but not 100% - he may not have been at the Downing Street party. And it could be argued that Stratton was just responding to a joke question. So the issue here is whether the Downing Street party is on film.

    The Rees Mogg film was earlier this week not last year
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    Some + news on Omi:



    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    12m
    Most boosted people would fend this off nicely, even with the 40x drop. So get boosted!

    Oh nice. Well I'm all jabbed up as of yesterday! :D
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Thanks for all replies - I think six people have now said JRM video is of this week.

    Apologies - as already posted I had assumed it was also of last year.
  • This really is a catastrophically bad timing from the government's point of view, as well as anything else, because they were just emerging from the previous sleaze story, with what looked like a more friendly new Mail editor to hep them along, also. Now one story just merges into another.

    If you operate under a continuous 'only the little people obey the rules/pay any tax' mindset then it is not surprising that the sewage starts to leak from the swamp in the fullness of time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    NP - you're just about my favourite poster on PB.

    I really think that your loyalty to Corbyn is massively misplaced. He's a bad man, and you certainly aren't.

    I'm a Tory, but if there is to be a Labour government again then it'll need people like you, behind the scenes perhaps, making it work. I've no idea what sort of madness causes you, a sensible person, to ally yourself with a nutter, but please, please get out of that.
    Nick's a good man, but he's a Red and that's tribal.
    Sure, there is tribalism on all sides, we see it with the PB Tory apologists who think it all a bit of a laugh that we are led by amoral kleptocrats.

    Nick also knows Jezza personally from his days in London, when he lived in Islington. I think Corbyn would be quite a convivial companion provided the conversation kept well clear of Middle East politics. I have always found Jezza a bit of a curates egg, but he certainly has a wonderful empathetic manner in some situations.

    I try to find something positive in every person, though it can be quite a challenge.
    IRC, Corbyn delivered the most tedious public speeches I've ever heard in 2017, a celebration of obscure trade unionists and forgotten disputes from 50 years ago.

    Yet I had fun trying to photograph him two years ago during the election campaign, so thanks Jeremy for cheering me up. It was fun, and I was pleased with my shots.
  • maaarsh said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the first person who 100% has to resign is Rees-Mogg.

    He is on film laughing about partying and social distancing with people in shot not socially distanced.

    100% caught red handed.

    There are no social distancing laws. He's been caught red handed not breaking the law.
    It seems Mike thinks that social distancing laws exist at the minute for some reason.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited December 2021
    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authoritarian lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2021

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.





    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14826418/keir-starmer-beer-indoor-gathering/
  • Are people going to explain away the latest Tory disgrace?

    Swap Labour with Tory and see them all appear
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    In the Twitterverse this story is being prismed almost entirely through Brexit. All those who are REALLY angry about it are the James O'Briens and Ian Dunts, being all self righteous (with reason, of course) but this comes after FIVE FUCKING YEARS when all they did was try and destroy Brexit, reverse it, torpedo Boris Johnson, and so on

    This is to Boris' advantage, it gives him an almost impregnable wall. Because it means unrepentant Leavers will yet again come to his aid and give him the benefit of the doubt, and he thus survives, as these voters are still a solid 35-40% of the country, maybe more

    It reminds me very much of Sturgeon in Scotland. The Salmond Affair would have totally destroyed Sturgeon if she were a normal politician in a normal situation - but she's not. She has the blind loyalty of about 30-40% of Scottish voters who are YES and that YES is paramount, and displaces any other consideration, so she is coated with tartan Teflon

    This polarisation, and its ability to preserve failed politicians in aspic, is not a good thing. It bedevils Scottish and British politics alike.

  • Carl Heneghan
    @carlheneghan
    How many people in power does it take to break the rules to illustrate the rules don't apply?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,899
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authorities lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    A ludicrous defence.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    edited December 2021

    This really is a catastrophically bad timing from the government's point of view, as well as anything else, because they were just emerging from the previous sleaze story, with what looked like a more friendly new Mail editor to hep them along, also. Now one story just merges into the other.

    As it was always going to do. They're taking the fucking piss - financially, legally, morally. Its all one story.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    Are people going to explain away the latest Tory disgrace?

    Swap Labour with Tory and see them all appear

    Have you actually read the thread? ;)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,958
    Haaaaaaaa. The dead cat of dead cats. I bet they’re ringing Frost right now to pen an op ed for tomorrow’s Torygraph.
    https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1468335924325097483
    https://twitter.com/quittershitt/status/1468325945442549761
  • glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authorities lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    A ludicrous defence.
    He was Present. But Not Involved.
  • Senior Tory says to me- there are going to have to be resignations.


    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1468336335559741440
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited December 2021
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authorities lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    A ludicrous defence.
    No that is the way forward. Boris must be the PM for Adam Brooks and Lawrence Fox, the PM who will keep the restaurants and pubs and shops and churches and nightclubs open no matter what throughout Christmas and the winter period. The PM who will keep pupils at school and not impose mandatory wfh.

    He must be the PM of freedom and the PM who will keep us open now for evermore. Not the antivax extreme PM but the pro vax, pro booster and pro freedom and liberty PM!
  • HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authoritarian lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    Well, he's certainly going to struggle to persuade Britain to cancel all our xmas plans now.

    But tbh Chris Whitty is already saying that UK public will just stick two fingers up to any xmas 'no family' lockdown.

    January is another matter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    isam said:

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.





    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14826418/keir-starmer-beer-indoor-gathering/
    Err, that link shows that it was a work event, on the campaign trail during a break in the event.

    Good to see you showing that he is a gregarious beer loving bloke though. You are usually a bit more down on him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    If you look upwards you can just about make out a massive dead cat hurtling down towards us.

    I have no detail whatsoever on the specifics of this particular dead cat but I am pretty certain it's been prepared, primed, and is going to land with a big thump very soon; the survival of the PM depends on it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,297

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm curious as to the role of Allegra Stratton. I rated her highly as a presenter on Newsnight etc., and would never have guessed her politics. I was surprised when she took on the role for BJ, but less so when I found out she was married to the Spectator editor.

    Nevertheless, I don't think she would be comfortable telling lies on behalf of the government, and I suspect that's why she's been sidelined. The ITV video supports this - I think she's laughing at the absurdity of it all, rather than because she things breaking the rules is funny. I doubt she leaked the footage herself, but I certainly think she knows exactly what's going on.

    Allegra used to work for ITV as well and the video was leaked to ITV...

    But I still think Cummings prints are all over this.
    You could well be right. But it just feels as if there's a bit of a pincer movement among a variety of Tory folk, both parliamentary and non-parliamentary, who have had enough of Boris and are plotting his demise. Stratton may be one of them; she's very, very bright, and I can't imagine she's got much time for him.
    If she were so very very bright she wouldn't have gone anywhere near Boris. She had a reasonable career as a journalist. Now she's just joined the group of women who fell for Boris and were let down by him. I mean, that puts you in rather a large group. You don't have much rarity value, let's face it.
  • Wow.

    Leading on BBC News even thu an ITV scope.

    Incredible.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    MikeL said:

    Thanks for all replies - I think six people have now said JRM video is of this week.

    Apologies - as already posted I had assumed it was also of last year.

    Yes, it was a somewhat embarrassing rush to correct you!!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    First story on BBC news qualifies that video as being a mock interview.

    Will wait and see if any Tory MPs publish copies of their letters to 1922 Committee calling for Boris to go,
  • Surely LD win in NS now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.





    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14826418/keir-starmer-beer-indoor-gathering/
    Err, that link shows that it was a work event, on the campaign trail during a break in the event.

    Good to see you showing that he is a gregarious beer loving bloke though. You are usually a bit more down on him.
    I reckon there are a few pics of him with a beer, he looks like he loves them.

    Maybe the Tories will just say the Downing St bash was a beer after work too, what’s the difference?
  • HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authoritarian lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    Well, he's certainly going to struggle to persuade Britain to cancel all our xmas plans now.

    But tbh Chris Whitty is already saying that UK public will just stick two fingers up to any xmas 'no family' lockdown.

    January is another matter.
    Lockdown looks nailed on for January with Omicron rampant so unpleasantness nailed on all round 😡😡😡
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,702
    Very cavalier of No 10. The roundheads are appalled.
  • I guess Allegra's career has just totally imploded.

    Utterly toxic waste as a PR spokesperson now.

    Rather unfair. Politicals is brutal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,606
    What’s impressive is that someone sat on this for a year.
  • FFS. No 10 still saying there was no party.

  • Empty Tory benches again tomorrow?
  • Jonathan said:

    What’s impressive is that someone sat on this for a year.

    When Dom does revenge he makes sure the dish is stone cold and also timely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    Senior Tory says to me- there are going to have to be resignations.


    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1468336335559741440

    "Senior Tories" are a bunch of bed wetters
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,157
    Jonathan said:

    What’s impressive is that someone sat on this for a year.

    To what end? Is this more damaging now rather than if it had come out back in January?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authoritarian lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    Sorry my friend, but this reads as being utterly ludicrous and very much in denial.

    Boris Johnsons government could well be imploding before our eyes.
  • HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authorities lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    A ludicrous defence.
    No that is the way forward. Boris must be the PM for Adam Brooks and Lawrence Fox, the PM who will keep the restaurants and pubs and shops and churches and nightclubs open no matter what throughout Christmas and the winter period. The PM who will keep pupils at school and not impose mandatory wfh.

    He must be the PM of freedom and the PM who will keep us open now for evermore. Not the antivax extreme PM but the pro vax, pro booster and pro freedom and liberty PM!
    He is in very clear danger of not being PM after these recent events

    I expect there are many conservative mps writing letters ready to post if North Shropshire falls
  • Wes Streeting MP
    @wesstreeting
    · 51m
    Blame Allegra… Blame Gavin… They have one thing in common: the boss. Boris Johnson. The tone he sets. The standard he sets.

    They are lying to you and laughing at you.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Farooq said:

    One thing about anosmia and Covid.

    At Christmas, I got really ill. Aches, fever, cough, total loss of smell, the works. Covid, right? Well, no. This was 8 years ago.
    It took about a week to get my sense back and another week or two til I was properly well again.

    There are other illnesses out there that can do this to you. I know there are other coronaviruses out there, and I don't know whether this is a common feature of coronviruses or what. But if you get Covid symptoms and repeated negative tests, it's not necessarily bad tests.

    Chicken & potato soup, by the way. Not the creamy stuff, but the type with great chunks of potato and chicken floating around. That's what saw me through.

    Sounds pretty close to broth to me. Nice one

  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    46m
    Wes Streeting is good at this
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,606
    This new series of House of Cards is rather good. FU is clearly on manoeuvres.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Bozo needs an enormous dead cat.

    Video of one of his cabinet taking a line of coke?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,958
    TELEGRAPH: Plans for Christmas work from home order #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1468343034005884932/photo/1
  • Plans for Christmas work from home order

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1468343034005884932?s=20
  • Ah, here we go. The desperate to try and change the discussion post is in:

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    24s
    TELEGRAPH: Plans for Christmas work from home order #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • eekeek Posts: 28,304
    Jonathan said:

    What’s impressive is that someone sat on this for a year.

    And then another whole week when at any time it would have been the main story.

    In fact the only curious bit is why today given the Afghanistan story?
  • Bozo needs an enormous dead cat.

    Video of one of his cabinet taking a line of coke?

    How would he choose?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,327
    Scott_xP said:

    TELEGRAPH: Plans for Christmas work from home order #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1468343034005884932/photo/1

    Can I not just have my two weeks off? :D
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    eek said:

    Jonathan said:

    What’s impressive is that someone sat on this for a year.

    And then another whole week when at any time it would have been the main story.

    In fact the only curious bit is why today given the Afghanistan story?
    Probably because nobody cares about dogs flying home from Afghanistan
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
    Corbyn was an irresponsible git who was a private individual; Johnson an irresponsible git who also happens to be PM.

    If it bleeds, it leads - and this was News at 10 headlines,
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Jonathan said:

    This new series of House of Cards is rather good. FU is clearly on manoeuvres.

    I thought we were watching The Thick of It.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    If you look upwards you can just about make out a massive dead cat hurtling down towards us.

    I have no detail whatsoever on the specifics of this particular dead cat but I am pretty certain it's been prepared, primed, and is going to land with a big thump very soon; the survival of the PM depends on it.

    I actually think @HYUFD could be right here, and the Bozza gambit will be to just open up and sod any restrictions. As nobody will ever listen to him on lockdown ever again, lockdowns are now pointless and, by opening up, he mitigates (but does not remove) the hypocrisy tag.

    Dunno, but HY *might* be on to something.

    Just musing really. Dunno.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Didn't think much of this story, but just caught the news. Two thoughts.
    You can see why Allegra never gave a presser. CJ Craig she ain't.
    Ironically. PM may now be in trouble for telling the truth.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,304

    Empty Tory benches again tomorrow?

    Can’t see many MPs following the whips orders tomorrow lunchtime - MPs have had all evening to endre they have unavoidable appointments elsewhere in London tomorrow morning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    After watching that video all I can say is there's little wonder Allegra's televised press conferences never happened. She looks awful in that. 🤨

    Now up on the BBC front page.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59572149
    Thgat's actrually quite severe on HMG. But with an intriguing weasel exit right there at the end.
    What, he’s gone already ?
  • Alright alright I leaked it
  • I find it quite interesting that labour's and others full on attack aimed at Boris would if they succeed and he goes, not only change the dynamic for GE24, but also not in as a good way for them as they may think
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authoritarian lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    Sorry my friend, but this reads as being utterly ludicrous and very much in denial.

    Boris Johnsons government could well be imploding before our eyes.
    I'm boiling with anger tonight. How many times do these people have to be caught breaking all the rules they spend hours and hours formulating for us little people?

    Hope that MPs email boxes are breaking under the strain yet again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103

    Ah, here we go. The desperate to try and change the discussion post is in:

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    24s
    TELEGRAPH: Plans for Christmas work from home order #TomorrowsPapersToday

    That's not a dead cat, that's just an inevitable corollary of OMICRON THE IMPLACABLE

    It looks like this variant *might* be mild, God willing it is so. Nonetheless it also looks - and with much more certainty - that it is wildly infectious. It is so infectious it implies tens of thousands of cases a day, in the UK, and similar worldwide.

    And even if it is mild, that still means enough people will get sick they need a hospital bed, and that means a crumbling NHS, and that means - I wish it weren't so - another lockdown. I pray I am wrong
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.





    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14826418/keir-starmer-beer-indoor-gathering/
    Err, that link shows that it was a work event, on the campaign trail during a break in the event.

    Good to see you showing that he is a gregarious beer loving bloke though. You are usually a bit more down on him.
    I reckon there are a few pics of him with a beer, he looks like he loves them.

    Maybe the Tories will just say the Downing St bash was a beer after work too, what’s the difference?
    Well, it was against guidance in December 2020...

    Hi Mick, although there are exemptions for work purposes, you must not have a work Christmas lunch or party, where that is a primarily social activity and is not otherwise permitted by the rules in your tier. You can find more information here: https://t.co/OffEeTzYh3 Thanks
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authoritarian lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    Well, he's certainly going to struggle to persuade Britain to cancel all our xmas plans now.

    But tbh Chris Whitty is already saying that UK public will just stick two fingers up to any xmas 'no family' lockdown.

    January is another matter.
    Lockdown looks nailed on for January with Omicron rampant so unpleasantness nailed on all round 😡😡😡
    You’ve been saying that for the past six months!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authorities lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    A ludicrous defence.
    No that is the way forward. Boris must be the PM for Adam Brooks and Lawrence Fox, the PM who will keep the restaurants and pubs and shops and churches and nightclubs open no matter what throughout Christmas and the winter period. The PM who will keep pupils at school and not impose mandatory wfh.

    He must be the PM of freedom and the PM who will keep us open now for evermore. Not the antivax extreme PM but the pro vax, pro booster and pro freedom and liberty PM!
    He is in very clear danger of not being PM after these recent events

    I expect there are many conservative mps writing letters ready to post if North Shropshire falls
    The Conservatives were still ahead in 1 poll today. The Tory hold in Old Bexley and Sidcup means he can brush off North Shropshire whatever happens.

    Provided he was not present at this Christmas party last year he will survive himself. He will probably have to sack Allegra though
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    Stepping back a moment, I don't think Boris implodes right here. I think there are more rumblings of discontent before the letters go in in sufficient weight - the idea of Tories being brutal with leaders is a little overbaked, there is more poll abrasion to be had but it'll be slower than anyone can quite fathom.

    But, I never expected the Ratnering of Boris to reach quite this pace, and a few more months of this and I think he'll be on the brink.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,606

    I find it quite interesting that labour's and others full on attack aimed at Boris would if they succeed and he goes, not only change the dynamic for GE24, but also not in as a good way for them as they may think

    Straws clutching. You’ll need a new leader not tarnished by being in this cabinet. Hunt is probably your best choice.
  • HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I wonder if what Boris really did at Christmas 2020 will come to light? Remember that he was repeatedly asked about what he was planning at the time, if somone knows he lied again that might be the final nail. It would certainly be what I'd want to save for last if I was a journalist.

    Provided Boris was not at this party he will get away with it. However he must ensure no more lockdowns of any description, no restrictions on Christmas and no restrictions on this year's Christmas parties at all.

    He must be the PM of freedom from further restrictions now most of us are vaccinated. That is the way to get around it, if he becomes that he can be the PM of liberty and Starmer the PM of more authoritarian lockdowns. Hence no hypocrisy
    You are more cuckoo than a Swiss clock emporium.
  • I would just like to say it is total coincidence that I re-emerged from hiatus when this Christmas party story was leaked and I will be leaving shortly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    The thing is, there are millions who would love a WFH edict.

    So it ain't a scare story.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Putin will invade Ukraine tomorrow to take the heat off Boris.
This discussion has been closed.