Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com

2456789

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    stodge said:

    Just picking up on @Chris_from_Paris's comment.

    We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.

    Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.

    Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.

    The voters of the Right need to decide if they are going to use the whole of their brains and be serious about winning the Presidency back.
    Rather than just having their amygdalas tickled by a parade of ever more unsuitable and unelectable candidates.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    BigRich said:

    stodge said:

    Just picking up on @Chris_from_Paris's comment.

    We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.

    Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.

    Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.

    Totally agree with you, this is just one poll. It is only significant in that it breaks the myth of Macron's invincibility.

    But Pecresse defines herself as "a femme de droite" (right-wing woman).

    And she knows she has to take back all these Fillon voters who threaten to vote Le Pen or Zemmour... plus a bit of those who went to Macron.

    I agree with you that she is the only electable solution for the voters to the right of Macron (who are a majority).

    The left is in a dire situation. Hidalgo at 3 is below anyone's worst scenario for her. (she is the mayor of Paris and candidate of the party that governed France only 5 years ago)
    Besides her self description, what else is known about Pecresse? I'm guessing a moderate on most fronts, but with a slight right wing bias?

    She has been an advisor to Chirac and a minister under Sarkozy. As higher education minister she was responsible forthe law on university autonomy against strident opposition from student unions. As budget minister she was considered quite conservative and fiscally disciplined (at least for a French minister...).

    As region president she was criticized for her links with conservative catholic groups and tried to get tough on law and order (CCTV in trains, security teams for problem high schools). She had a good relationship with the business community.

    In France this qualifies as a right-wing CV and she was pictured as an extremist by the left and macronists during the regional campaign last June (she won with 46% in a 4-way 2nd round, the left getting 33, the lepeinist 11, the macronist 10).

    But her image remained softer ("maybe because I'm blonde" as she jokes) and so she put out a very tough program on immigration and law and order during the primary.
    She added some support for family benefits and a pledge to cut 200 000civil service jobs.
    Thanks CrissfromParis, :)
  • Bloody hell.

    Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied

    Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December

    Watch full video here:


    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    This is piss funny. Anyone seriously want to claim there was no party now?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008

    Dr John Campbell isn't very positive....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxAGb1Lv7k

    I’m still optimistic, he literally says, (that omicron will turn out to be milder).
    6min 23s...he says IF....Lets Hope.....Overwise we are in big trouble. Everybody will be exposed within weeks.

    9min 17s...If the government are wrong, we are stuffed. We will have people dying in the street outside hospitals....I don't think we are, but the government are taking a heck of a gamble.

    Where as 2 days ago, he was saying this is the best thing that could ever happen. Wash through the world and pandemic over in a few months.
    What an absurd spectacle.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Andy_JS said:

    Something odd has happened to the Mid Norfolk Labour Party website.

    http://www.midnorfolklabour.com

    BJO has hacked the site.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    It's just like HYUFD.

    Say one thing, show their assumption is wrong, and the goalposts get shifted.
    HYUFD & Big G - this ones for you 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqKCx4OAPCs
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    So have I got this right:

    Bozo has denied that a party was held at 10 Downing Street for a bunch of feral moggies from Kabul?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    I am not happy to defend anyone but I do try to be fair

    I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    Pick the least worst one of those options but given the latter the only options are one of those 3.

    And all 3 mean that a plane left with Animals rather than Afghan translators or others Afghans who worked for us.
  • There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.
  • There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758

    BigRich said:

    stodge said:

    Just picking up on @Chris_from_Paris's comment.

    We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.

    Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.

    Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.

    Totally agree with you, this is just one poll. It is only significant in that it breaks the myth of Macron's invincibility.

    But Pecresse defines herself as "a femme de droite" (right-wing woman).

    And she knows she has to take back all these Fillon voters who threaten to vote Le Pen or Zemmour... plus a bit of those who went to Macron.

    I agree with you that she is the only electable solution for the voters to the right of Macron (who are a majority).

    The left is in a dire situation. Hidalgo at 3 is below anyone's worst scenario for her. (she is the mayor of Paris and candidate of the party that governed France only 5 years ago)
    Besides her self description, what else is known about Pecresse? I'm guessing a moderate on most fronts, but with a slight right wing bias?

    She has been an advisor to Chirac and a minister under Sarkozy. As higher education minister she was responsible forthe law on university autonomy against strident opposition from student unions. As budget minister she was considered quite conservative and fiscally disciplined (at least for a French minister...).

    As region president she was criticized for her links with conservative catholic groups and tried to get tough on law and order (CCTV in trains, security teams for problem high schools). She had a good relationship with the business community.

    In France this qualifies as a right-wing CV and she was pictured as an extremist by the left and macronists during the regional campaign last June (she won with 46% in a 4-way 2nd round, the left getting 33, the lepeinist 11, the macronist 10).

    But her image remained softer ("maybe because I'm blonde" as she jokes) and so she put out a very tough program on immigration and law and order during the primary.
    She added some support for family benefits and a pledge to cut 200 000civil service jobs.
    That must be a fair chunk of Macron's personal staff!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    Andy_JS said:

    Something odd has happened to the Mid Norfolk Labour Party website.

    http://www.midnorfolklabour.com

    Whoops - disgruntled Corbynista in control of the WordPress account.

    It's amusing but hardly on the level of Animalgate or Partygate.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited December 2021

    Dr John Campbell isn't very positive....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxAGb1Lv7k

    Near the start of the video he says "I'm still very optimistic".
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Andy_JS said:

    Something odd has happened to the Mid Norfolk Labour Party website.

    http://www.midnorfolklabour.com

    Whoops - disgruntled Corbynista in control of the WordPress account.

    It's amusing but hardly on the level of Animalgate or Partygate.
    Whew, things looked dodgy for Boris for a few minutes there. Thankfully we're onto the real news though!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/07/britain-afghanistan-johnson-whistleblower-foreign-office-kabul

    A perceptive piece on the government’s failures over Afghanistan by Raphael Behr.

    "This is what happens when government is led by people who seek the thrill of power without wanting the burden of office."

    To the extent anytime cares about the UK's standing in the world, the retreat from Kabul is more Singapore than Dunkirk. With few exceptions, including it seems the junior FO staff member whistleblower, no-one could be bothered.

    The dog thing is an outrage.
  • The problem with the Christmas party story was that there was no footage or killer photo. It takes quite breathtaking um… bad luck??… to somehow generate that in a building where anyone who doesn’t work there has to leave their phone at the door.

    https://twitter.com/KarimPalant/status/1468291409472106501
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    As I said earlier.
    This is about filling the country with cats and dogs at the expense of brown people.
    Can't see how this can be anything other than a vote winner for the PM.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Indeed, and if it were a novel, film or drama series it would be great.

    But this is our country he's fucking with. To quote Paul Simon: I don't find this stuff amusing anymore.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117

    On topic I think the Greens of England & Wales and Scotland will underwhelm as usual.

    They don't put up a full slate of candidates (particularly in Scotland where they are the vegan branch of the SNP) which won't help.

    Not the vegan branch of the SNP, or at least only partly. More the former SSP with added lettuce.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited December 2021

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117
    Andy_JS said:

    A declining proportion of Green supporters probably go back to Labour at each successive general election as the party becomes more established.

    Already well advanced in Scotland, but the electoral environment is less hostile to small parties such as Slab and the LDs anyway.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Indeed, and if it were a novel, film or drama series it would be great.

    But this is our country he's fucking with. To quote Paul Simon: I don't find this stuff amusing anymore.
    I never did.

    But without boring everyone, a hell of a lot of this was baked in on 23 June 2016.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Yes. Before that he was merely inept.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.
  • There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Indeed, and if it were a novel, film or drama series it would be great.

    But this is our country he's fucking with. To quote Paul Simon: I don't find this stuff amusing anymore.
    I wouldn't find it credible if it were fiction. No Prime Minister could ever be that bad, surely?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,263
    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    The 100% pre-covid wasn't up to much tbh.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117
    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    Ditto his chum across La Manche who on faut donner un break aussi.
  • There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Indeed, and if it were a novel, film or drama series it would be great.

    But this is our country he's fucking with. To quote Paul Simon: I don't find this stuff amusing anymore.
    In fact Paul Simon was a bit of a prophet, will you be my health secretary now my health secretary has gone, disappeared down an alley with a roly poly little bat faced girl, all along there were incidents and accident, hints and allegations...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited December 2021

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Indeed, and if it were a novel, film or drama series it would be great.

    But this is our country he's fucking with. To quote Paul Simon: I don't find this stuff amusing anymore.
    I wouldn't find it credible if it were fiction. No Prime Minister could ever be that bad, surely?
    The thing I find utterly depressing is that this is so predictable.

    It is one of the reasons yourself, myself, and David Herdson quit the party.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,843

    Bloody hell.

    Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied

    Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December

    Watch full video here:


    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    Was just about to post it. This place is grease lightening sometimes!

    Such a damaging story. The country traumatized and locked down, Johnson & Co on the piss and larking around.
  • There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Indeed, and if it were a novel, film or drama series it would be great.

    But this is our country he's fucking with. To quote Paul Simon: I don't find this stuff amusing anymore.
    I wouldn't find it credible if it were fiction. No Prime Minister could ever be that bad, surely?
    The thing I find utterly depressing is that this is so predictable.

    It one of the reasons yourself, myself, and David Herdson quit the party.
    Yep, but it's even worse than I predicted.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Mike P Williams
    @Mike_P_Williams
    ·
    8m
    You can tell when Boris Johnson lies because not only do his lips move, but he wears the look of a guilty as fuck shitgibbon who's just been caught poking around in his own faeces
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,530
    No 10 is a stinking cesspit of corruption and cronyism . You really have to be a Bozo Cult member to ignore this reality.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    Given Précresse thinks Macron weak in defending France's interests against countries like the UK, I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/vpecresse/status/1128723876471504897
  • Yep. I totally agree with @MikeSmithson here.

    Apart from anything else, when we get to 2023/4 Green voters who are anti-Boris and anti-Tory ( ≈ all of them) will be desperate to get rid of this government. They will put Polly's nose pegs on and vote for the Lab or LD candidate in all seats except the targets (e.g Bristol West, Brighton etc).
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    nico679 said:

    No 10 is a stinking cesspit of corruption and cronyism . You really have to be a Bozo Cult member to ignore this reality.

    Remarkably even after all the stories we've seen over the months including 2 different stories today there are still supposedly intelligent posters on this site who are still members of that cargo cult.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    Given Précresse thinks Macron weak in defending France's interests against countries like the UK, I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/vpecresse/status/1128723876471504897
    It's almost like there are votes in France for appearing tough against the perfidious English.

    And vice versa.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    Ditto his chum across La Manche who on faut donner un break aussi.
    Macron is useful to Boris because it allows him to look reasonable for once.
  • JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Thing is - if you keep telling lies and getting away with it, you’ll keep doing it. Exactly what’s happened with Bojo, even after Barnard castle
  • JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    LOL! That is a hilarious excuse even by Boris standards.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    I am not happy to defend anyone but I do try to be fair

    I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    Pick the least worst one of those options but given the latter the only options are one of those 3.

    And all 3 mean that a plane left with Animals rather than Afghan translators or others Afghans who worked for us.
    Listening to the evidence at the select committee the humans were evacuated with the rest and it was only at the conclusion of all the evacuations and the military started evacuating themselves that the dogs were put on a privately charted aircraft

    I do not know whether Boris was involved or not, but the evidence given today was adamant the dogs did not leave during the evacuation process but after everyone had left but the soldiers

    I would also make this clear, I want Boris replaced and the sooner the better.

    I would comment that Boris has been caught out so many times that even when he is telling the truth he is not believed and that is of his own making

    I hope the Lib Dems win in North Shropshire and give Paterson and Boris their just desserts, and may well see his mps taking things into their own hands and writing letters
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    nico679 said:

    No 10 is a stinking cesspit of corruption and cronyism . You really have to be a Bozo Cult member to ignore this reality.

    Just to be clear, this is because, on a different day from that alleged, some members of staff had a drink after work in their office and the PM may even have popped his head in to say thanks very much.

    Donnez moi un break, as he might have said.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    I'll repeat my comment from below



    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    So that is Pauline thrown under the bus but I suspect Boris won't sack her and Pauline won't resign.




  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Your credibility on this would be somewhat higher if you'd not repeatedly claimed that the case hospitalisation rate hadn't declined with an increasingly vaccinated population.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Sorry where is this leaked footage of Downing St staff laughing about the Christmas party?
  • Sorry where is this leaked footage of Downing St staff laughing about the Christmas party?

    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-07/no-10-staff-joke-in-leaked-recording-about-christmas-party-they-later-denied
  • Sorry where is this leaked footage of Downing St staff laughing about the Christmas party?

    You need to see the full version here:

    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-07/no-10-staff-joke-in-leaked-recording-about-christmas-party-they-later-denied
  • JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    LOL! That is a hilarious excuse even by Boris standards.
    It's like a pair of boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given RefUK are also polling about 4 to 5% in the latest polls and most of their voters will go back to the Tories, then the Green Party effect currently seen on Labour's vote will be largely cancelled out

    Hasn't there always been a minimum of 4 or 5% who vote NF/BNP/UKIP/Brexit Party ?
    The only general election UKIP/BXP or a party right of the Tories got over 3% was in 2015 when UKIP got 12% after the Cameron-Clegg coalition government
    I wonder what UKIP would have got if Cameron hadn't made his EU referendum offer?
    About the same.

    I remain convinced that a very large portion of the UKIP vote were 2010 Lib Dems.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    I didn't even know Allegra Stratton had ever done any work for the government. I thought her employment was totally fictional. Is she still technically employed?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    I am not happy to defend anyone but I do try to be fair

    I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    Pick the least worst one of those options but given the latter the only options are one of those 3.

    And all 3 mean that a plane left with Animals rather than Afghan translators or others Afghans who worked for us.
    Listening to the evidence at the select committee the humans were evacuated with the rest and it was only at the conclusion of all the evacuations and the military started evacuating themselves that the dogs were put on a privately charted aircraft

    I do not know whether Boris was involved or not, but the evidence given today was adamant the dogs did not leave during the evacuation process but after everyone had left but the soldiers

    I would also make this clear, I want Boris replaced and the sooner the better.

    I would comment that Boris has been caught out so many times that even when he is telling the truth he is not believed and that is of his own making

    I hope the Lib Dems win in North Shropshire and give Paterson and Boris their just desserts, and may well see his mps taking things into their own hands and writing letters
    The evidence wasn't "adamant" at all. In what sense had "everyone had left but the soldiers" when we have only evacuated 5% of those entitled to evacuation? What mechanism prevented the evac of further humans but continued to permit that of dogs? Those questions were asked, and met with hand waving.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    LOL! That is a hilarious excuse even by Boris standards.
    It's like a pair of boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
    I mean.. how long can MPs put up with this?

    Bojo thinks he’s Max Verstappen - rules don’t apply to him…
  • JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    LOL! That is a hilarious excuse even by Boris standards.
    It's like a pair of boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
    I mean.. how long can MPs put up with this?

    Bojo thinks he’s Max Verstappen - rules don’t apply to him…
    I'm nicking that.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    I am not happy to defend anyone but I do try to be fair

    I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    Pick the least worst one of those options but given the latter the only options are one of those 3.

    And all 3 mean that a plane left with Animals rather than Afghan translators or others Afghans who worked for us.
    Listening to the evidence at the select committee the humans were evacuated with the rest and it was only at the conclusion of all the evacuations and the military started evacuating themselves that the dogs were put on a privately charted aircraft

    I do not know whether Boris was involved or not, but the evidence given today was adamant the dogs did not leave during the evacuation process but after everyone had left but the soldiers

    I would also make this clear, I want Boris replaced and the sooner the better.

    I would comment that Boris has been caught out so many times that even when he is telling the truth he is not believed and that is of his own making

    I hope the Lib Dems win in North Shropshire and give Paterson and Boris their just desserts, and may well see his mps taking things into their own hands and writing letters
    Did we evacuate every single Afghan we wanted and tried to evacuate?

    As we didn't, the basis of your argument is once again incorrect
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    When you get all these leaks, the thing to watch is who are the people keeping very quiet / out of the limelight and never involved in any of these issues....
  • JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    Also piss funny.

    And some PBers defend this shit!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    LOL! That is a hilarious excuse even by Boris standards.
    It's like a pair of boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
    I mean.. how long can MPs put up with this?

    Bojo thinks he’s Max Verstappen - rules don’t apply to him…
    You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

    The problem the Tories have is that currently Boris is fooling enough of the people enough of the time that he still looks like a reasonable option.
  • rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    Given Précresse thinks Macron weak in defending France's interests against countries like the UK, I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/vpecresse/status/1128723876471504897
    It's almost like there are votes in France for appearing tough against the perfidious English.

    And vice versa.
    In the (May 2019) tweets you are linking to, she criticizes Macron for defending Europe and weakening France, but does not mention his relationship with the UK.

    In another tweet she criticizes the UK for post-Brexit political chaos (it was 10 days before Theresa May's resignation)
  • IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot 1

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    It will be interesting to see if Macron's first round score holds up even if he stops looking like the automatic winner. He could end up as another Hollande.
    Indeed, and I wonder whether his reaction to losing will be dissimilar to Trump.
  • eek said:

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    I'll repeat my comment from below



    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    So that is Pauline thrown under the bus but I suspect Boris won't sack her and Pauline won't resign.




    It seems to me quite possible that everyone is telling the truth. It wouldn't surprise me if a PPS gets involved in things without needing to involve the PM, with a don't ask, don't tell, element to it leveraging his position.

    If the PPS to the PM asks you to do something are you going to say no, even if they are not involving the PM?

    Very Yes, Minister or House of Cards style of politics. I bet it happens more than we know.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    Once it became clear it was either Boris, Carrie or Pauline — it was obvious Pauline was to “blame”.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865
    Does anyone have any inside information about what ordinary Conservative MPs think about their government? Do they agree with the way things are run, are they thinking of writing a letter, or are they just keeping their heads down?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Although it can hardly have been a surprise after Cummings, surely?

    Incidentally @NigelB it's easy to spot which of Cummings' ideas are bad ones. All of them are.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    DavidL said:

    nico679 said:

    No 10 is a stinking cesspit of corruption and cronyism . You really have to be a Bozo Cult member to ignore this reality.

    Just to be clear, this is because, on a different day from that alleged, some members of staff had a drink after work in their office and the PM may even have popped his head in to say thanks very much.

    Donnez moi un break, as he might have said.
    Fully signed up cargo cult member, right here.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited December 2021
    This is Pen Farthings account of his flight with his animals from Afghanistan

    It makes interesting reading

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/06/pen-farthing-animals-afghanistan-evacuation-nowzad-faces-of-year?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    Given Précresse thinks Macron weak in defending France's interests against countries like the UK, I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/vpecresse/status/1128723876471504897
    It's almost like there are votes in France for appearing tough against the perfidious English.

    And vice versa.
    Probably. Either Macron or Pécresse are OK choices for France. The others are horrible. As far as UK relations are concerned, Macron is likely as good as it gets. Keep an eye on le Touquet. Macron is in favour. Other candidates including Pécresse want to abolish or renegotiate the agreement.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Rowena
    @JustRowena
    ·
    1m
    In my career I've dealt with people who put stupid things on email. People who put stupid things on text. People who were secretly recorded.

    I have never dealt with anyone who deliberately videoed evidence against themselves and giggled whilst doing so
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot 1

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    It will be interesting to see if Macron's first round score holds up even if he stops looking like the automatic winner. He could end up as another Hollande.
    Indeed, and I wonder whether his reaction to losing will be dissimilar to Trump.
    Much as I loathe Macron, I don't think he'd claim it was all a rigged election and make wild unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    I find that my motivation to stay within the rules fades somewhat when I see that Boris and Carrie don’t need to.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Just opened that link, what a waste of time, the author is stupid.

    If Omicron has an R of 1.5, then all of a sudden the 40,000 cases of delta, we have today don't tern in to 60,000 cases in a couple of day time! the 400 maybe cases of Omicron tern in to 600 and the 40,000 of Delta stay at around 40,000, at lest as long as delta R remans at 1 ish.

    In a few weeks then the number of Omicron will have increased and will probably pass 40,000 at some point, but thats very difernt to saying we will be at 60,000 by the weekend.

    FWIW, in all likelihood, come the end of tern in 2 weeks, the number of delta cases will probably drop dramatically, as it did at half term, and for the same reason, unvaccinated kids will not be in school in rooms with 25-30 other unvaccinated people.

    As for Omicron, the new out of SA, gives growing confidence very day that it is milled, yes, this is a prediction, but each day as we look for evidence of a wave of hospitalisations and don't see it, gives a improved probability this is the cases.

    In the new year, yes there will be a lot of Omicron, but, a Delta will be low, and we will be well down the path of 3rd jabs.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    She has been an advisor to Chirac and a minister under Sarkozy. As higher education minister she was responsible forthe law on university autonomy against strident opposition from student unions. As budget minister she was considered quite conservative and fiscally disciplined (at least for a French minister...).

    As region president she was criticized for her links with conservative catholic groups and tried to get tough on law and order (CCTV in trains, security teams for problem high schools). She had a good relationship with the business community.

    In France this qualifies as a right-wing CV and she was pictured as an extremist by the left and macronists during the regional campaign last June (she won with 46% in a 4-way 2nd round, the left getting 33, the lepeinist 11, the macronist 10).

    But her image remained softer ("maybe because I'm blonde" as she jokes) and so she put out a very tough program on immigration and law and order during the primary.
    She added some support for family benefits and a pledge to cut 200 000civil service jobs.

    She has to walk the tightrope between Le Pen/Zemmour on one side and Macron on the other. Her dilemma isn't dissimilar to Casado's in Spain. It did him no good to flirt with VOX as whatever support he gained on one flank he lost more on the other.

    Her immediate priority is to get into the run off - there's no point coming a strong third as Fillon found out. If Le Pen and Zemmour are fighting each other to a standstill, she has a real chance.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Lee Toomey
    @leetoomey
    ·
    17m
    Replying to
    @IanDunt
    On the evening this video was filmed, I was handing Christmas presents to my teenage children in a lay-by (divorced from their Mum). My parents were in the next car along. We weren't the only family doing the same thing. This matters.
  • How many months until Boris goes?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    MaxPB said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot 1

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    It will be interesting to see if Macron's first round score holds up even if he stops looking like the automatic winner. He could end up as another Hollande.
    Indeed, and I wonder whether his reaction to losing will be dissimilar to Trump.
    Of course it won't ffs.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    I am not happy to defend anyone but I do try to be fair

    I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    Pick the least worst one of those options but given the latter the only options are one of those 3.

    And all 3 mean that a plane left with Animals rather than Afghan translators or others Afghans who worked for us.
    Listening to the evidence at the select committee the humans were evacuated with the rest and it was only at the conclusion of all the evacuations and the military started evacuating themselves that the dogs were put on a privately charted aircraft

    I do not know whether Boris was involved or not, but the evidence given today was adamant the dogs did not leave during the evacuation process but after everyone had left but the soldiers

    I would also make this clear, I want Boris replaced and the sooner the better.

    I would comment that Boris has been caught out so many times that even when he is telling the truth he is not believed and that is of his own making

    I hope the Lib Dems win in North Shropshire and give Paterson and Boris their just desserts, and may well see his mps taking things into their own hands and writing letters
    Did we evacuate every single Afghan we wanted and tried to evacuate?

    As we didn't, the basis of your argument is once again incorrect
    I am only recounting the evidence at committee today and of course not everyone was evacuated and that is not in dispute
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
    I’m still not willing to go there.

    I think Boris v Corbyn is pretty much on par, but the people behind Corbyn scared me more than the people behind Boris.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    Bolder prediction. BJO will say he's voting for Johnson and call on Starmer to resign.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited December 2021
    Re: Russian military buildup around Ukraine

    According to the bbc world service, the Americans think it’s likely Putin is going to invade.

    I’m sceptical. But…

    I wonder if Putin is looking at China/Taiwan and getting himself ready to take advantage.

    Shit could hit fan very quickly, for the western alliance. The current peace looks extremely brittle, to me.

    We are condemned to live in interesting times.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the BBC could raise more cash from abroad. Ex pat PBers - is iPlayer a pay to play subscription service from outside the UK (Yes yes I know about VPNs but they're not free either)

    They don’t let you pay, even if you want to, unless you have paid a licence fee on a UK address.

    They could raise a small fortune from it, given the number of people using various ‘other’ ways of watching BBC content.
    Ridiculous, that's a massive source of monetisation going completely AWOL. Loads of people abroad love the BBC and would happily pay for iPlayer.
    They can't. They don't have the rights for it.

    If they have shows broadcast on the BBC that aren't licenced to the BBC in other nations then what can they do?

    Even many BBC shows they don't own the rights to. Let alone imported ones.
    They are slowly improving on that front. It used to be that

    1) The BBC would commission a program and pay for it.
    2) They would get the UK rights.
    3) The company commissioned would get the international rights

    A chap I know works at the BBC and has helped crack down on this nonsense - they were using the BBC name to print money.
    Netflix have managed to very quickly turn local and regional media rights markets into a global market, and many of the established players have been caught sleeping and stuck in contracts that now make little sense.
    Yes - until a few years ago (surprisingly few) no-one gave the overseas rights a second thought.

    If the worldwide market for BBC programs was properly exploited, the BBC cold be paid for entirely by foreign subscriptions. Wouldn't that be a cool pitch?
    It's not true though, the BBC already has a gigantic commercial arm which licences programming to Netflix and broadcasters across the world. The other issue is that they also don't own a lot of what they show, for example His Dark Materials started as a co-production with HBO but now the production company has been bought by Sony Pictures and with it all of the international streaming/broadcast rights.
    I'm with Max here.

    BBC has been making international revenue for a very long time.

    The dropped ball that I regret was selling the Hulton Archive (incl Picture Post) for a very small sum in the 1980s. That is now the core stock of Getty Images historic archive.

    That, I think was Maggie's Govt knowing the price of everything and the long-term value of nothing. See for comparison Boris pissing away the vaccine research centre.

    The Hulton collection was sold by the BBC to Brian Deutsch in 1988, when it was renamed Hulton Deutsch. In 1996, the Hulton collection was sold on once more, this time purchased by Getty Images and renamed Hulton Getty. With the acquisition of the Hulton library, Getty Images took ownership of the rights to some 15 million photographs from British press archives dating back to the nineteenth century. Hulton Getty also included photographs from the Keystone Collection, as well as images by notable photographers such as Bert Hardy, Bill Brandt, Weegee and Ernst Haas.[15]
    That's one of those things were changes in technology transformed something from virtually worthless (and expensive to maintain) in the 1980's into a money press by 2000 or so.

    Getty Images real skill was buying it when they saw how the world was going before the rest of the world caught up and grasped how the internet would transform the photo library business.

    Looking back selling the library was utterly stupid but from a 1980's viewpoint it was a risky, high cost and low profit business.
    It's also emblematic of successive UK governments ignoring the value of British culture.
    You could say something similar about the BBC itself.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Desperately hoping that the dead cat to distract from a video showing the people imposing restrictions don't really think they're necessary or apply to them, is not further restrictions. But I feel like I've seen this horror film before.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
    It's like asking whether it's better to be poisoned or shot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Last Christmas we had my MIL for Christmas lunch because she was in our bubble since her daughter did all her shopping for her. How could your other half not be in your bubble? My son went to a school dance with his girlfriend. It was a bit weird, being held in tents in the School grounds, but they did it. And I was mixing with the same people every day at work without masks unless we were moving around the building. And these staff all worked together every day, all day too. So they are in a bubble. And had the party in their office. Really struggling to understand the hysteria about this.

    There is so much this government can be criticised for but this is just silly.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
    I’m still not willing to go there.

    I think Boris v Corbyn is pretty much on par, but the people behind Corbyn scared me more than the people behind Boris.
    If Johnson as PM is the equivalent of being garrotted, Corbyn would have been the equivalent of being slow sliced while at the same time being buggered with a red hot poker.

    They were both awful as a choice. But there is no doubt, even now, that Corbyn would have been the worse option.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    He might be right, though. minimum result expected from Starmer is 5 x wins on points and a KO in the 6th, or he is definitively not up to it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    From the piece:

    "These numbers are entirely made up."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    I am not happy to defend anyone but I do try to be fair

    I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
    Let's make this simple

    either Boris asked Pauline to sort out the issue, Carrie asked Pauline to sort out the issue (and implied that Boris had authorised it) or Pauline pretended she was doing it at Boris's request.

    Pick the least worst one of those options but given the latter the only options are one of those 3.

    And all 3 mean that a plane left with Animals rather than Afghan translators or others Afghans who worked for us.
    Listening to the evidence at the select committee the humans were evacuated with the rest and it was only at the conclusion of all the evacuations and the military started evacuating themselves that the dogs were put on a privately charted aircraft

    I do not know whether Boris was involved or not, but the evidence given today was adamant the dogs did not leave during the evacuation process but after everyone had left but the soldiers

    I would also make this clear, I want Boris replaced and the sooner the better.

    I would comment that Boris has been caught out so many times that even when he is telling the truth he is not believed and that is of his own making

    I hope the Lib Dems win in North Shropshire and give Paterson and Boris their just desserts, and may well see his mps taking things into their own hands and writing letters
    Did we evacuate every single Afghan we wanted and tried to evacuate?

    As we didn't, the basis of your argument is once again incorrect
    I am only recounting the evidence at committee today and of course not everyone was evacuated and that is not in dispute
    The snow job had its desired effect, then.
  • ydoethur said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Although it can hardly have been a surprise after Cummings, surely?

    Incidentally @NigelB it's easy to spot which of Cummings' ideas are bad ones. All of them are.
    I always knew Cummings was a psychopath, I expected such tosspot behaviour from him.

    I didn't expect it to be this widespread.
  • PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    ydoethur said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Although it can hardly have been a surprise after Cummings, surely?

    Incidentally @NigelB it's easy to spot which of Cummings' ideas are bad ones. All of them are.
    I always knew Cummings was a psychopath, I expected such tosspot behaviour from him.

    I didn't expect it to be this widespread.
    Well, since he appointed quite a lot of them I would suggest that expectation was a lapse of judgement.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    DavidL said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Last Christmas we had my MIL for Christmas lunch because she was in our bubble since her daughter did all her shopping for her. How could your other half not be in your bubble? My son went to a school dance with his girlfriend. It was a bit weird, being held in tents in the School grounds, but they did it. And I was mixing with the same people every day at work without masks unless we were moving around the building. And these staff all worked together every day, all day too. So they are in a bubble. And had the party in their office. Really struggling to understand the hysteria about this.

    There is so much this government can be criticised for but this is just silly.

    You are one of the most gullible posters on here, and I include Big G in that (who recognises at least that Boris must go).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    edited December 2021

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
    If he only loses 5-0 can we make him England captain for the Ashes?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
    And, funnily, you'll be umpire.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    eek said:

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    LOL! That is a hilarious excuse even by Boris standards.
    It's like a pair of boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
    I mean.. how long can MPs put up with this?

    Bojo thinks he’s Max Verstappen - rules don’t apply to him…
    You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

    The problem the Tories have is that currently Boris is fooling enough of the people enough of the time that he still looks like a reasonable option.
    This is the guy who literally dressed up as a policeman the other day..
This discussion has been closed.