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How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com
How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com
Above are the latest Westminster voting and as can be seen one of the big trends in recent months has been some very good polling numbers for the Greens. The party got, let’s remember, just 2.7% of the GB vote at GE2019. YouGov, in particular, has them at triple their GE2019 share.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxAGb1Lv7k
What 2021’s Biggest Upset Elections Tell Us About The Losing Parties
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-2021s-biggest-upset-elections-tell-us-about-the-losing-parties/
How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.
Others will differ here.
Plenty of MPs were part of the circus demanding special treatment for their special cases at the time.
We shall fight them on the beaches....
Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign
For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV
First Round
Macron 23 (-2)
Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
Le Pen 15 (-5)
Zemmour 14 (+1)
Melenchon 8 (-1)
Jadot 7 (-1)
Hidalgo 3 (-1)
Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot <1
Second round
Pecresse 52
Macron 48
This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51
Sometimes a bit of quid pro quo is required to secure her vote where it matters.
But its also possible that they won't.
In 2015 there was an underlying assumption for a lot of people that those saying UKIP wouldn't vote UKIP and thus would likely vote Conservative; they didn't.
You need to win voters over. Possibly Corbyn was successful at winning over Green voters, but there's no reason to assume that is guaranteed.
I really can't see Greens on 3% TBH but we will see.
The fieldwork is older than some other Polls we have had too.
Still must be encouraging for the Starmerites on here.
The most senior civil servant in the Foreign Office did not return from his summer holiday until 11 days after the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan and a day before the British evacuation of vulnerable Afghans ended.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/work-from-home-culture-fuelled-kabul-chaos-says-whistleblower-w3t6c37ms
And La Hodge bullying witnesses with stuff she had pulled out of her bum.
And her own personal use of tax havens to hold investments.
@theousherwood
· 7m
At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.
Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1468275546031280128
They don't put up a full slate of candidates (particularly in Scotland where they are the vegan branch of the SNP) which won't help.
On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.
Two Green votes where it doesn't matter, two Labour votes where it does.
Big difference this time though - Green inclined voters loved the last Labour leader and hate the current one. Where are the disillusioned Corbynites going to go at the next GE?
They won't vote for Sir Keir, unless he re admits Jezza
They aren't going to vote Tory or LD
I have always thought the Greens should benefit from Labour's lean towards centrism, cant see any betting oppo's yet though
Its possible that the large proportion of Green supporters that ended up voting labour, did so because there was no green candidate standing in their constituency. there where 153 seats at the last election without a Green candidate that's 24% of them.
At the next election that may go up or down, so hard to use as a predicter at this stage.
Macron will behave like a vin-soaked pint-sized popinjay, but that's the schtick of pretty much every French president whenever the Republique has a self-confidence problem, which is every day with a D in it except the 8th day in the week.
Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
It just has to be 52-48, doesn’t it!
I cannot believe Raab would be overruled by a mere PPS.
When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.
We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.
Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.
Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.
And why is "Our ref" blanked out unless it reads FLSOJ?
Another secondary question was it done by Trudy because the actual staff at No 10 knew there were more important things to deal with (thinking back to https://twitter.com/garius/status/1468203463301603333 that I posted earlier).
You're right, whenever Le Pen is not there 52/48 or 53/47 are the most likely results.
Macron remains the very clear favorite but he may have to work a bit for this one (if judges do not intervene again).
9min 17s...If the government are wrong, we are stuffed. We will have people dying in the street outside hospitals....I don't think we are, but the government are taking a heck of a gamble.
Where as 2 days ago, he was saying this is the best thing that could ever happen. Wash through the world and pandemic over in a few months.
They are increasing the walermelonisation of the party. Which in my mind, and that of the aforementioned Green member in the next room, is a Bad Thing.
I do have a bit of an issue with the Commons Foreign Affairs select committee, though, as I think they too are somewhat culpable in not holding ministers to account before things fell apart in Afghanistan. Indeed if you look at the various things the committee concerned themselves with over the last couple of years, Afghanistan figured very low indeed - prior to the actual fall of Kabul.
Contrast with the House of Lords committee, which very much did, and suggested that things might fall apart rather quickly some time before it happened. They were ignored by ministers - and of course much easier to ignore than their Commons counterparts.
But Pecresse defines herself as "a femme de droite" (right-wing woman).
And she knows she has to take back all these Fillon voters who threaten to vote Le Pen or Zemmour... plus a bit of those who went to Macron.
I agree with you that she is the only electable solution for the voters to the right of Macron (who are a majority).
The left is in a dire situation. Hidalgo at 3 is below anyone's worst scenario for her. (she is the mayor of Paris and candidate of the party that governed France only 5 years ago)
BBC has been making international revenue for a very long time.
The dropped ball that I regret was selling the Hulton Archive (incl Picture Post) for a very small sum in the 1980s. That is now the core stock of Getty Images historic archive.
That, I think was Maggie's Govt knowing the price of everything and the long-term value of nothing. See for comparison Boris pissing away the vaccine research centre.
The Hulton collection was sold by the BBC to Brian Deutsch in 1988, when it was renamed Hulton Deutsch. In 1996, the Hulton collection was sold on once more, this time purchased by Getty Images and renamed Hulton Getty. With the acquisition of the Hulton library, Getty Images took ownership of the rights to some 15 million photographs from British press archives dating back to the nineteenth century. Hulton Getty also included photographs from the Keystone Collection, as well as images by notable photographers such as Bert Hardy, Bill Brandt, Weegee and Ernst Haas.[15]
A perceptive piece on the government’s failures over Afghanistan by Raphael Behr.
"This is what happens when government is led by people who seek the thrill of power without wanting the burden of office."
Getty Images real skill was buying it when they saw how the world was going before the rest of the world caught up and grasped how the internet would transform the photo library business.
Looking back selling the library was utterly stupid but from a 1980's viewpoint it was a risky, high cost and low profit business.
That was 1%. They poll much higher than that.
He has done quite a few good things and he is much better than most other candidates. He just has this infuriating tendency to consider himself the only respectable choice for anyone with a brain, explaining that any opponent is either a fool or a dangerous extremist. A bit like Hillary Clinton at her worst.
He clearly needs to be challenged and to have to explain clearly what he wants to do, as he didn't do that the last time and has changed direction several times since.
He also has to stop the "both left and right" charade in a France that has never been as right-wing since the 19th century. He has governed as a centre-right economic and social liberal but has a team mostly composed of ex-socialists who simply refuse to admit they're not leftists anymore.
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,scottish-greens-release-list-of-2019-general-election-candidates_14722.htm
We don't even have our most often not out batsman to shore things up a bit!
What was it Martin Johnson said in 1986 - there are only three things wrong with this side. They can't bat, they can't bowl and they can't field.
UK gov is to give biz another two years to adjust to post-#Brexit UK REACH chemicals safety database that industry warned would cost £1bn to needlessly duplicate EU REACH
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1468281010936848390
The sheer unbridled lunacy of the government's original 'plan' (if that's not too strong a word) on this is a wonder to behold. Hopefully it will be kicked into even further long grass in a couple of years' time, and even more hopefully we'll eventually get a sane government which cancel the entire stupidity and signs back into REACH.
Did we know before that the humans were flown by the RAF?
Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied
Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December
Watch full video here:
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512
Scottish Greens upbeat despite losing all 22 election deposits
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18105392.scottish-greens-upbeat-despite-losing-22-election-deposits/
I will be very interested in the report by this select committee as so much evidence today was very controversial
As region president she was criticized for her links with conservative catholic groups and tried to get tough on law and order (CCTV in trains, security teams for problem high schools). She had a good relationship with the business community.
In France this qualifies as a right-wing CV and she was pictured as an extremist by the left and macronists during the regional campaign last June (she won with 46% in a 4-way 2nd round, the left getting 33, the lepeinist 11, the macronist 10).
But her image remained softer ("maybe because I'm blonde" as she jokes) and so she put out a very tough program on immigration and law and order during the primary.
She added some support for family benefits and a pledge to cut 200 000civil service jobs.
Say one thing, show their assumption is wrong, and the goalposts get shifted.
Doesn’t really look like a well functioning government does it?
(Apart from Big G spontaneously combusting).
http://www.midnorfolklabour.com
@davidallengreen
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The interesting thing here is how, given Downing Street security, this footage came to be leaked
Who in No 10 has access and the desire to do some major score settling or was this leak to reduce the impact of Pauline's Animal letter.
I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
Rather than just having their amygdalas tickled by a parade of ever more unsuitable and unelectable candidates.