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How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageHow much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com

Above are the latest Westminster voting and as can be seen one of the big trends in recent months has been some very good polling numbers for the Greens. The party got, let’s remember, just 2.7% of the GB vote at GE2019. YouGov, in particular, has them at triple their GE2019 share.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • 1st
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    2nd
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    3rd
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Even without the omicron variant with the invisibility cloak, by virtue of using different PCR tests, only 30-40% of the capacity can pick it up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Dr John Campbell isn't very positive....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxAGb1Lv7k
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.
  • . . . meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    What 2021’s Biggest Upset Elections Tell Us About The Losing Parties
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-2021s-biggest-upset-elections-tell-us-about-the-losing-parties/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    Um. IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs hectoring witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.

    Others will differ here.

    Plenty of MPs were part of the circus demanding special treatment for their special cases at the time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs abusing witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.
    Bryant is a shit for sure, but I think the case against the FO is so strong that it is difficult not to sound hectoring.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    Um. IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs hectoring witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.

    Others will differ here.

    Plenty of MPs were part of the circus demanding special treatment for their special cases at the time.
    Isn't that what MPs are meant to do? The MPs I have heard (not just the ones on the committee but Nusrat Ghani on WATO today) are saying Bloody right I was making representations on behalf of special cases, I want to know what happened to the representations.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs abusing witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.
    Bryant is a shit for sure, but I think the case against the FO is so strong that it is difficult not to sound hectoring.
    Dominic Raab and the FO really went full Churchill over the fall of Kabul.

    We shall fight them on the beaches....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the BBC could raise more cash from abroad. Ex pat PBers - is iPlayer a pay to play subscription service from outside the UK (Yes yes I know about VPNs but they're not free either)

    They don’t let you pay, even if you want to, unless you have paid a licence fee on a UK address.

    They could raise a small fortune from it, given the number of people using various ‘other’ ways of watching BBC content.
    Ridiculous, that's a massive source of monetisation going completely AWOL. Loads of people abroad love the BBC and would happily pay for iPlayer.
    They can't. They don't have the rights for it.

    If they have shows broadcast on the BBC that aren't licenced to the BBC in other nations then what can they do?

    Even many BBC shows they don't own the rights to. Let alone imported ones.
    They are slowly improving on that front. It used to be that

    1) The BBC would commission a program and pay for it.
    2) They would get the UK rights.
    3) The company commissioned would get the international rights

    A chap I know works at the BBC and has helped crack down on this nonsense - they were using the BBC name to print money.
    Netflix have managed to very quickly turn local and regional media rights markets into a global market, and many of the established players have been caught sleeping and stuck in contracts that now make little sense.
    Yes - until a few years ago (surprisingly few) no-one gave the overseas rights a second thought.

    If the worldwide market for BBC programs was properly exploited, the BBC cold be paid for entirely by foreign subscriptions. Wouldn't that be a cool pitch?
    It's not true though, the BBC already has a gigantic commercial arm which licences programming to Netflix and broadcasters across the world. The other issue is that they also don't own a lot of what they show, for example His Dark Materials started as a co-production with HBO but now the production company has been bought by Sony Pictures and with it all of the international streaming/broadcast rights.
  • From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot <1

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    I'm guessing about as much as the Tories will get from Reform UK (or whatever it is called by then).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    On topic anecdote, the eco-authoritarian Green Party member in the Rentool household generally votes Labour when the result isn't obvious, but votes Green when it is either safe Labour or safe Tory.

    Sometimes a bit of quid pro quo is required to secure her vote where it matters.
  • It certainly is possible that those saying Green will end up voting for Labour next time.

    But its also possible that they won't.

    In 2015 there was an underlying assumption for a lot of people that those saying UKIP wouldn't vote UKIP and thus would likely vote Conservative; they didn't.

    You need to win voters over. Possibly Corbyn was successful at winning over Green voters, but there's no reason to assume that is guaranteed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs abusing witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.
    Bryant is a shit for sure, but I think the case against the FO is so strong that it is difficult not to sound hectoring.
    Dominic Raab and the FO really went full Churchill over the fall of Kabul.

    We shall fight them on the beaches....
    Just reread that and realised what you meant. Very good!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    On topic anecdote, the eco-authoritarian Green Party member in the Rentool household generally votes Labour when the result isn't obvious, but votes Green when it is either safe Labour or safe Tory.

    Sometimes a bit of quid pro quo is required to secure her vote where it matters.

    Cutting the grass?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    A good Poll for SKS Starmer today.

    I really can't see Greens on 3% TBH but we will see.

    The fieldwork is older than some other Polls we have had too.

    Still must be encouraging for the Starmerites on here.
  • Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs abusing witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.
    Bryant is a shit for sure, but I think the case against the FO is so strong that it is difficult not to sound hectoring.
    Dominic Raab and the FO really went full Churchill over the fall of Kabul.

    We shall fight them on the beaches....
    Just reread that and realised what you meant. Very good!
    Well you all know me, the master of subtlety and understatement.

    The most senior civil servant in the Foreign Office did not return from his summer holiday until 11 days after the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan and a day before the British evacuation of vulnerable Afghans ended.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/work-from-home-culture-fuelled-kabul-chaos-says-whistleblower-w3t6c37ms
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    Um. IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs hectoring witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.

    Others will differ here.

    Plenty of MPs were part of the circus demanding special treatment for their special cases at the time.
    Isn't that what MPs are meant to do? The MPs I have heard (not just the ones on the committee but Nusrat Ghani on WATO today) are saying Bloody right I was making representations on behalf of special cases, I want to know what happened to the representations.
    The time I always remember when I see that was Frank Field (?) on David Kelly.

    And La Hodge bullying witnesses with stuff she had pulled out of her bum.

    And her own personal use of tax havens to hold investments.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    A declining proportion of Green supporters probably go back to Labour at each successive general election as the party becomes more established.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1468275546031280128
  • On topic I think the Greens of England & Wales and Scotland will underwhelm as usual.

    They don't put up a full slate of candidates (particularly in Scotland where they are the vegan branch of the SNP) which won't help.
  • eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    DavidL said:

    On topic anecdote, the eco-authoritarian Green Party member in the Rentool household generally votes Labour when the result isn't obvious, but votes Green when it is either safe Labour or safe Tory.

    Sometimes a bit of quid pro quo is required to secure her vote where it matters.

    Cutting the grass?
    Not quite!

    Two Green votes where it doesn't matter, two Labour votes where it does.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    "Given that one of the features of the past two general elections is that more than half of those saying GRN six months beforehand actually went LAB then I’d argue that we should assume that a similar thing could happen next time."

    Big difference this time though - Green inclined voters loved the last Labour leader and hate the current one. Where are the disillusioned Corbynites going to go at the next GE?

    They won't vote for Sir Keir, unless he re admits Jezza
    They aren't going to vote Tory or LD

    I have always thought the Greens should benefit from Labour's lean towards centrism, cant see any betting oppo's yet though
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
  • eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 9,163
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    I'm guessing about as much as the Tories will get from Reform UK (or whatever it is called by then).

    Except that at GE 2015 the Greens only took 1.6%, so we might expect that if 6% shows in opinion polls then perhaps as much as 4% will go Labour (even more than header article). Frothing swiveleyed parties such as UKIP and Brexit National Party have got considerably more than ReFuck are polling now IIRC.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632
    On topic,

    Its possible that the large proportion of Green supporters that ended up voting labour, did so because there was no green candidate standing in their constituency. there where 153 seats at the last election without a Green candidate that's 24% of them.

    At the next election that may go up or down, so hard to use as a predicter at this stage.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021

    MaxPB said:

    Despite Brexit...

    Ariel: Contract signed to build European planet telescope

    A €200m (£170m) contract has been signed with European industry to build the Ariel space telescope.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59555684

    Macron is going to be hopping mad about this.
    Why? - the workshare on this has been painfully scripted with every Euro argued over. The French government will have had to put their chop on it to go forward....
    Not really sure - it is a project that came up through Euratom work and ESA, neither of which is just EU if I have followed. and Horizon 2020 in which we are involved I think.

    Macron will behave like a vin-soaked pint-sized popinjay, but that's the schtick of pretty much every French president whenever the Republique has a self-confidence problem, which is every day with a D in it except the 8th day in the week. :smile:
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,915

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassa
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Ph

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    Great to hear from you after so long. And hopefully frequently as the campaign progresses.

    It just has to be 52-48, doesn’t it!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    isam said:

    "Given that one of the features of the past two general elections is that more than half of those saying GRN six months beforehand actually went LAB then I’d argue that we should assume that a similar thing could happen next time."

    Big difference this time though - Green inclined voters loved the last Labour leader and hate the current one. Where are the disillusioned Corbynites going to go at the next GE?

    They won't vote for Sir Keir, unless he re admits Jezza
    They aren't going to vote Tory or LD

    I have always thought the Greens should benefit from Labour's lean towards centrism, cant see any betting oppo's yet though

    Yes
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    So who asked the PM's PPS to get involved?

    I cannot believe Raab would be overruled by a mere PPS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he...
    opened his mouth.
  • On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    Dr John Campbell isn't very positive....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxAGb1Lv7k

    I’m still optimistic, he literally says, (that omicron will turn out to be milder).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Just picking up on @Chris_from_Paris's comment.

    We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.

    Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.

    Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Given RefUK are also polling about 4 to 5% in the latest polls and most of their voters will go back to the Tories, then the Green Party effect currently seen on Labour's vote will be largely cancelled out
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    Why would she sign herself as PPS if not acting as such?

    And why is "Our ref" blanked out unless it reads FLSOJ?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    So who asked the PM's PPS to get involved?

    I cannot believe Raab would be overruled by a mere PPS.
    I said Boris's fingers were all over it.

    Another secondary question was it done by Trudy because the actual staff at No 10 knew there were more important things to deal with (thinking back to https://twitter.com/garius/status/1468203463301603333 that I posted earlier).
  • JohnO said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassa
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Ph

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    Great to hear from you after so long. And hopefully frequently as the campaign progresses.

    It just has to be 52-48, doesn’t it!
    As you know I mostly post during French campaigns. It's true that it's been a while.

    You're right, whenever Le Pen is not there 52/48 or 53/47 are the most likely results.

    Macron remains the very clear favorite but he may have to work a bit for this one (if judges do not intervene again).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Dr John Campbell isn't very positive....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxAGb1Lv7k

    I’m still optimistic, he literally says, (that omicron will turn out to be milder).
    6min 23s...he says IF....Lets Hope.....Overwise we are in big trouble. Everybody will be exposed within weeks.

    9min 17s...If the government are wrong, we are stuffed. We will have people dying in the street outside hospitals....I don't think we are, but the government are taking a heck of a gamble.

    Where as 2 days ago, he was saying this is the best thing that could ever happen. Wash through the world and pandemic over in a few months.
  • Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he...
    opened his mouth.
    Before he opened his mouth
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    I suspect a lot of Scottish Green voters are pro Independence but dislike the SNP for various reasons (say their local MP or Nicola).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    isam said:

    "Given that one of the features of the past two general elections is that more than half of those saying GRN six months beforehand actually went LAB then I’d argue that we should assume that a similar thing could happen next time."

    Big difference this time though - Green inclined voters loved the last Labour leader and hate the current one. Where are the disillusioned Corbynites going to go at the next GE?

    They won't vote for Sir Keir, unless he re admits Jezza
    They aren't going to vote Tory or LD

    I have always thought the Greens should benefit from Labour's lean towards centrism, cant see any betting oppo's yet though

    There's nothing particularly green about Jezza. Some of his acolytes are saying they'll vote Green only because the SWP aren't on the ballot.

    They are increasing the walermelonisation of the party. Which in my mind, and that of the aforementioned Green member in the next room, is a Bad Thing.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,915

    JohnO said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassa
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Ph

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    Great to hear from you after so long. And hopefully frequently as the campaign progresses.

    It just has to be 52-48, doesn’t it!
    As you know I mostly post during French campaigns. It's true that it's been a while.

    You're right, whenever Le Pen is not there 52/48 or 53/47 are the most likely results.

    Macron remains the very clear favorite but he may have to work a bit for this one (if judges do not intervene again).
    If I recall correctly (apologies if not), you personally are/were a centre-right supporter. But that was before Macron. Does he deserve re-election even as the least bad candidate?
  • HYUFD said:

    Given RefUK are also polling about 4 to 5% in the latest polls and most of their voters will go back to the Tories, then the Green Party effect currently seen on Labour's vote will be largely cancelled out

    Hasn't there always been a minimum of 4 or 5% who vote NF/BNP/UKIP/Brexit Party ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Keir should watch this Foreign Affairs committee and learn what a forensic examination looks like.

    Um. IMO a fair amount of it looks like hectoring MPs hectoring witnesses to impress TV.

    How Margaret Hodge used to behave sometimes.

    Others will differ here.

    Plenty of MPs were part of the circus demanding special treatment for their special cases at the time.
    Isn't that what MPs are meant to do? The MPs I have heard (not just the ones on the committee but Nusrat Ghani on WATO today) are saying Bloody right I was making representations on behalf of special cases, I want to know what happened to the representations.
    Yes it is.

    I do have a bit of an issue with the Commons Foreign Affairs select committee, though, as I think they too are somewhat culpable in not holding ministers to account before things fell apart in Afghanistan. Indeed if you look at the various things the committee concerned themselves with over the last couple of years, Afghanistan figured very low indeed - prior to the actual fall of Kabul.

    Contrast with the House of Lords committee, which very much did, and suggested that things might fall apart rather quickly some time before it happened. They were ignored by ministers - and of course much easier to ignore than their Commons counterparts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    I'm on Pecresse at 10/1. First punt on the French and it's off to a flying start.
  • stodge said:

    Just picking up on @Chris_from_Paris's comment.

    We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.

    Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.

    Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.

    Totally agree with you, this is just one poll. It is only significant in that it breaks the myth of Macron's invincibility.

    But Pecresse defines herself as "a femme de droite" (right-wing woman).

    And she knows she has to take back all these Fillon voters who threaten to vote Le Pen or Zemmour... plus a bit of those who went to Macron.

    I agree with you that she is the only electable solution for the voters to the right of Macron (who are a majority).

    The left is in a dire situation. Hidalgo at 3 is below anyone's worst scenario for her. (she is the mayor of Paris and candidate of the party that governed France only 5 years ago)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    JohnO said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassa
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Ph

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    Great to hear from you after so long. And hopefully frequently as the campaign progresses.

    It just has to be 52-48, doesn’t it!
    As you know I mostly post during French campaigns. It's true that it's been a while.

    You're right, whenever Le Pen is not there 52/48 or 53/47 are the most likely results.

    Macron remains the very clear favorite but he may have to work a bit for this one (if judges do not intervene again).
    It is a terrifying poll for Macron. Not only is Pecresse a clear second and heading for the runoff thanks to a division on the far right between Zemmour and Le Pen but she also gets 52% in the runoff to beat him too
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    They put up the odd token candidate so they get invited to the leaders debates. I would tell them to piss off personally.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    So who asked the PM's PPS to get involved?

    I cannot believe Raab would be overruled by a mere PPS.
    He was probably doing something much more important. Like making sure that his phone and laptop were in proper alignment with the edge of his desk. Or something.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the BBC could raise more cash from abroad. Ex pat PBers - is iPlayer a pay to play subscription service from outside the UK (Yes yes I know about VPNs but they're not free either)

    They don’t let you pay, even if you want to, unless you have paid a licence fee on a UK address.

    They could raise a small fortune from it, given the number of people using various ‘other’ ways of watching BBC content.
    Ridiculous, that's a massive source of monetisation going completely AWOL. Loads of people abroad love the BBC and would happily pay for iPlayer.
    They can't. They don't have the rights for it.

    If they have shows broadcast on the BBC that aren't licenced to the BBC in other nations then what can they do?

    Even many BBC shows they don't own the rights to. Let alone imported ones.
    They are slowly improving on that front. It used to be that

    1) The BBC would commission a program and pay for it.
    2) They would get the UK rights.
    3) The company commissioned would get the international rights

    A chap I know works at the BBC and has helped crack down on this nonsense - they were using the BBC name to print money.
    Netflix have managed to very quickly turn local and regional media rights markets into a global market, and many of the established players have been caught sleeping and stuck in contracts that now make little sense.
    Yes - until a few years ago (surprisingly few) no-one gave the overseas rights a second thought.

    If the worldwide market for BBC programs was properly exploited, the BBC cold be paid for entirely by foreign subscriptions. Wouldn't that be a cool pitch?
    It's not true though, the BBC already has a gigantic commercial arm which licences programming to Netflix and broadcasters across the world. The other issue is that they also don't own a lot of what they show, for example His Dark Materials started as a co-production with HBO but now the production company has been bought by Sony Pictures and with it all of the international streaming/broadcast rights.
    I'm with Max here.

    BBC has been making international revenue for a very long time.

    The dropped ball that I regret was selling the Hulton Archive (incl Picture Post) for a very small sum in the 1980s. That is now the core stock of Getty Images historic archive.

    That, I think was Maggie's Govt knowing the price of everything and the long-term value of nothing. See for comparison Boris pissing away the vaccine research centre.

    The Hulton collection was sold by the BBC to Brian Deutsch in 1988, when it was renamed Hulton Deutsch. In 1996, the Hulton collection was sold on once more, this time purchased by Getty Images and renamed Hulton Getty. With the acquisition of the Hulton library, Getty Images took ownership of the rights to some 15 million photographs from British press archives dating back to the nineteenth century. Hulton Getty also included photographs from the Keystone Collection, as well as images by notable photographers such as Bert Hardy, Bill Brandt, Weegee and Ernst Haas.[15]
  • https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/07/britain-afghanistan-johnson-whistleblower-foreign-office-kabul

    A perceptive piece on the government’s failures over Afghanistan by Raphael Behr.

    "This is what happens when government is led by people who seek the thrill of power without wanting the burden of office."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    Given RefUK are also polling about 4 to 5% in the latest polls and most of their voters will go back to the Tories, then the Green Party effect currently seen on Labour's vote will be largely cancelled out

    Hasn't there always been a minimum of 4 or 5% who vote NF/BNP/UKIP/Brexit Party ?
    The only general election UKIP/BXP or a party right of the Tories got over 3% was in 2015 when UKIP got 12% after the Cameron-Clegg coalition government
  • DavidL said:

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    They put up the odd token candidate so they get invited to the leaders debates. I would tell them to piss off personally.
    I think they put up 22 out of 59 last time in Scotland.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the BBC could raise more cash from abroad. Ex pat PBers - is iPlayer a pay to play subscription service from outside the UK (Yes yes I know about VPNs but they're not free either)

    They don’t let you pay, even if you want to, unless you have paid a licence fee on a UK address.

    They could raise a small fortune from it, given the number of people using various ‘other’ ways of watching BBC content.
    Ridiculous, that's a massive source of monetisation going completely AWOL. Loads of people abroad love the BBC and would happily pay for iPlayer.
    They can't. They don't have the rights for it.

    If they have shows broadcast on the BBC that aren't licenced to the BBC in other nations then what can they do?

    Even many BBC shows they don't own the rights to. Let alone imported ones.
    They are slowly improving on that front. It used to be that

    1) The BBC would commission a program and pay for it.
    2) They would get the UK rights.
    3) The company commissioned would get the international rights

    A chap I know works at the BBC and has helped crack down on this nonsense - they were using the BBC name to print money.
    Netflix have managed to very quickly turn local and regional media rights markets into a global market, and many of the established players have been caught sleeping and stuck in contracts that now make little sense.
    Yes - until a few years ago (surprisingly few) no-one gave the overseas rights a second thought.

    If the worldwide market for BBC programs was properly exploited, the BBC cold be paid for entirely by foreign subscriptions. Wouldn't that be a cool pitch?
    It's not true though, the BBC already has a gigantic commercial arm which licences programming to Netflix and broadcasters across the world. The other issue is that they also don't own a lot of what they show, for example His Dark Materials started as a co-production with HBO but now the production company has been bought by Sony Pictures and with it all of the international streaming/broadcast rights.
    I'm with Max here.

    BBC has been making international revenue for a very long time.

    The dropped ball that I regret was selling the Hulton Archive (incl Picture Post) for a very small sum in the 1980s. That is now the core stock of Getty Images historic archive.

    That, I think was Maggie's Govt knowing the price of everything and the long-term value of nothing. See for comparison Boris pissing away the vaccine research centre.

    The Hulton collection was sold by the BBC to Brian Deutsch in 1988, when it was renamed Hulton Deutsch. In 1996, the Hulton collection was sold on once more, this time purchased by Getty Images and renamed Hulton Getty. With the acquisition of the Hulton library, Getty Images took ownership of the rights to some 15 million photographs from British press archives dating back to the nineteenth century. Hulton Getty also included photographs from the Keystone Collection, as well as images by notable photographers such as Bert Hardy, Bill Brandt, Weegee and Ernst Haas.[15]
    That's one of those things were changes in technology transformed something from virtually worthless (and expensive to maintain) in the 1980's into a money press by 2000 or so.

    Getty Images real skill was buying it when they saw how the world was going before the rest of the world caught up and grasped how the internet would transform the photo library business.

    Looking back selling the library was utterly stupid but from a 1980's viewpoint it was a risky, high cost and low profit business.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given RefUK are also polling about 4 to 5% in the latest polls and most of their voters will go back to the Tories, then the Green Party effect currently seen on Labour's vote will be largely cancelled out

    Hasn't there always been a minimum of 4 or 5% who vote NF/BNP/UKIP/Brexit Party ?
    The only general election UKIP/BXP or a party right of the Tories got over 3% was in 2015 when UKIP got 12% after the Cameron-Clegg coalition government
    I wonder what UKIP would have got if Cameron hadn't made his EU referendum offer?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632

    stodge said:

    Just picking up on @Chris_from_Paris's comment.

    We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.

    Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.

    Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.

    Totally agree with you, this is just one poll. It is only significant in that it breaks the myth of Macron's invincibility.

    But Pecresse defines herself as "a femme de droite" (right-wing woman).

    And she knows she has to take back all these Fillon voters who threaten to vote Le Pen or Zemmour... plus a bit of those who went to Macron.

    I agree with you that she is the only electable solution for the voters to the right of Macron (who are a majority).

    The left is in a dire situation. Hidalgo at 3 is below anyone's worst scenario for her. (she is the mayor of Paris and candidate of the party that governed France only 5 years ago)
    Besides her self description, what else is known about Pecresse? I'm guessing a moderate on most fronts, but with a slight right wing bias?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,800

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot 1

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    It will be interesting to see if Macron's first round score holds up even if he stops looking like the automatic winner. He could end up as another Hollande.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the BBC could raise more cash from abroad. Ex pat PBers - is iPlayer a pay to play subscription service from outside the UK (Yes yes I know about VPNs but they're not free either)

    They don’t let you pay, even if you want to, unless you have paid a licence fee on a UK address.

    They could raise a small fortune from it, given the number of people using various ‘other’ ways of watching BBC content.
    Ridiculous, that's a massive source of monetisation going completely AWOL. Loads of people abroad love the BBC and would happily pay for iPlayer.
    They can't. They don't have the rights for it.

    If they have shows broadcast on the BBC that aren't licenced to the BBC in other nations then what can they do?

    Even many BBC shows they don't own the rights to. Let alone imported ones.
    They are slowly improving on that front. It used to be that

    1) The BBC would commission a program and pay for it.
    2) They would get the UK rights.
    3) The company commissioned would get the international rights

    A chap I know works at the BBC and has helped crack down on this nonsense - they were using the BBC name to print money.
    Netflix have managed to very quickly turn local and regional media rights markets into a global market, and many of the established players have been caught sleeping and stuck in contracts that now make little sense.
    Yes - until a few years ago (surprisingly few) no-one gave the overseas rights a second thought.

    If the worldwide market for BBC programs was properly exploited, the BBC cold be paid for entirely by foreign subscriptions. Wouldn't that be a cool pitch?
    It's not true though, the BBC already has a gigantic commercial arm which licences programming to Netflix and broadcasters across the world. The other issue is that they also don't own a lot of what they show, for example His Dark Materials started as a co-production with HBO but now the production company has been bought by Sony Pictures and with it all of the international streaming/broadcast rights.
    I'm with Max here.

    BBC has been making international revenue for a very long time.

    The dropped ball that I regret was selling the Hulton Archive (incl Picture Post) for a very small sum in the 1980s. That is now the core stock of Getty Images historic archive.

    That, I think was Maggie's Govt knowing the price of everything and the long-term value of nothing. See for comparison Boris pissing away the vaccine research centre.

    The Hulton collection was sold by the BBC to Brian Deutsch in 1988, when it was renamed Hulton Deutsch. In 1996, the Hulton collection was sold on once more, this time purchased by Getty Images and renamed Hulton Getty. With the acquisition of the Hulton library, Getty Images took ownership of the rights to some 15 million photographs from British press archives dating back to the nineteenth century. Hulton Getty also included photographs from the Keystone Collection, as well as images by notable photographers such as Bert Hardy, Bill Brandt, Weegee and Ernst Haas.[15]
    That's one of those things were changes in technology transformed something from virtually worthless (and expensive to maintain) in the 1980's into a money press by 2000 or so.

    Getty Images real skill was buying it when they saw how the world was going before the rest of the world caught up and grasped how the internet would transform the photo library business.
    Also, see how music rights have been bought up, cos it aint just about people wanting to listen to a album. Its the ability to use across all the multimedia content creation.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Dr John Campbell isn't very positive....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxAGb1Lv7k

    He might need to up his lithium dose... Two days ago he was very happy!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    They put up the odd token candidate so they get invited to the leaders debates. I would tell them to piss off personally.
    I think they put up 22 out of 59 last time in Scotland.
    Pretty sure they didn't. They got 28,122 votes in total in Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

    That was 1%. They poll much higher than that.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassa
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Ph

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    Great to hear from you after so long. And hopefully frequently as the campaign progresses.

    It just has to be 52-48, doesn’t it!
    As you know I mostly post during French campaigns. It's true that it's been a while.

    You're right, whenever Le Pen is not there 52/48 or 53/47 are the most likely results.

    Macron remains the very clear favorite but he may have to work a bit for this one (if judges do not intervene again).
    If I recall correctly (apologies if not), you personally are/were a centre-right supporter. But that was before Macron. Does he deserve re-election even as the least bad candidate?
    You do remember correctly.
    He has done quite a few good things and he is much better than most other candidates. He just has this infuriating tendency to consider himself the only respectable choice for anyone with a brain, explaining that any opponent is either a fool or a dangerous extremist. A bit like Hillary Clinton at her worst.
    He clearly needs to be challenged and to have to explain clearly what he wants to do, as he didn't do that the last time and has changed direction several times since.
    He also has to stop the "both left and right" charade in a France that has never been as right-wing since the 19th century. He has governed as a centre-right economic and social liberal but has a team mostly composed of ex-socialists who simply refuse to admit they're not leftists anymore.
  • I will just get it in early....its a good job England bat deep.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    eek said:

    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1468275546031280128

    Big G, please explain?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    They put up the odd token candidate so they get invited to the leaders debates. I would tell them to piss off personally.
    I think they put up 22 out of 59 last time in Scotland.
    Pretty sure they didn't. They got 28,122 votes in total in Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

    That was 1%. They poll much higher than that.
    The Scottish Greens will contest 22 seats across Scotland in the general election, with co-leader Lorna Slater outlining plans to stand against every party which “lacks a clear plan to tackle the climate emergency”.

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,scottish-greens-release-list-of-2019-general-election-candidates_14722.htm
  • eek said:

    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1468275546031280128

    Big G, please explain?
    I just have
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    I will just get it in early....its a good job England bat deep.

    They do? Root plus a random other from 5 or 6. And a tail.

    We don't even have our most often not out batsman to shore things up a bit!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    I will just get it in early....its a good job England bat deep.

    It would be quite nice if they could bat at all.

    What was it Martin Johnson said in 1986 - there are only three things wrong with this side. They can't bat, they can't bowl and they can't field.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
  • And in more totally unsurprising news:

    UK gov is to give biz another two years to adjust to post-#Brexit UK REACH chemicals safety database that industry warned would cost £1bn to needlessly duplicate EU REACH

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1468281010936848390

    The sheer unbridled lunacy of the government's original 'plan' (if that's not too strong a word) on this is a wonder to behold. Hopefully it will be kicked into even further long grass in a couple of years' time, and even more hopefully we'll eventually get a sane government which cancel the entire stupidity and signs back into REACH.
  • DavidL said:

    I will just get it in early....its a good job England bat deep.

    They do? Root plus a random other from 5 or 6. And a tail.

    We don't even have our most often not out batsman to shore things up a bit!
    The only reasons I haven't backed Australia to win this series five nil is Covid-19 and the weather.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    But we know that the FO and MOD had just said they couldn't. Why the change?

    Did we know before that the humans were flown by the RAF?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    They put up the odd token candidate so they get invited to the leaders debates. I would tell them to piss off personally.
    I think they put up 22 out of 59 last time in Scotland.
    Pretty sure they didn't. They got 28,122 votes in total in Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

    That was 1%. They poll much higher than that.
    The Scottish Greens will contest 22 seats across Scotland in the general election, with co-leader Lorna Slater outlining plans to stand against every party which “lacks a clear plan to tackle the climate emergency”.

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,scottish-greens-release-list-of-2019-general-election-candidates_14722.htm
    They may have said that but I don't think that they did. Maybe wrong. If so it was an epically poor result, just over 1k a constituency.
  • Bloody hell.

    Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied

    Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December

    Watch full video here:


    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    I will just get it in early....its a good job England bat deep.

    They do? Root plus a random other from 5 or 6. And a tail.

    We don't even have our most often not out batsman to shore things up a bit!
    The only reasons I haven't backed Australia to win this series five nil is Covid-19 and the weather.
    Yes there are storms forecast for every day of this first test. Far more likely to hold up the Aussies than our top order.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    They put up the odd token candidate so they get invited to the leaders debates. I would tell them to piss off personally.
    I think they put up 22 out of 59 last time in Scotland.
    Pretty sure they didn't. They got 28,122 votes in total in Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

    That was 1%. They poll much higher than that.
    The Scottish Greens will contest 22 seats across Scotland in the general election, with co-leader Lorna Slater outlining plans to stand against every party which “lacks a clear plan to tackle the climate emergency”.

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,scottish-greens-release-list-of-2019-general-election-candidates_14722.htm
    They may have said that but I don't think that they did. Maybe wrong. If so it was an epically poor result, just over 1k a constituency.
    I've just counted them all, it was 22 and then there's this

    Scottish Greens upbeat despite losing all 22 election deposits

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18105392.scottish-greens-upbeat-despite-losing-22-election-deposits/
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    The cycle time between Boris lying and it being shown to be a lie is decreasing.

    Again, Conservative MPs have to get their letters in to the 1922. This has to stop.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,992
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    But we know that the FO and MOD had just said they couldn't. Why the change?

    Did we know before that the humans were flown by the RAF?
    It does seem the humans were flown out before the final evacuation and that the animals were only put on the private charter once all evacuations had concluded and only UK and US military were left to evacuate

    I will be very interested in the report by this select committee as so much evidence today was very controversial
  • eek said:

    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1468275546031280128

    Well, that didn't take long, did it?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    edited December 2021

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic (part II)

    When I looked at the Green share of the vote in the polls I did notice in some GB wide Westminster VI polls the Greens were doing very well in Scotland where they won't pull up a full slate of candidates.

    They put up the odd token candidate so they get invited to the leaders debates. I would tell them to piss off personally.
    I think they put up 22 out of 59 last time in Scotland.
    Pretty sure they didn't. They got 28,122 votes in total in Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

    That was 1%. They poll much higher than that.
    The Scottish Greens will contest 22 seats across Scotland in the general election, with co-leader Lorna Slater outlining plans to stand against every party which “lacks a clear plan to tackle the climate emergency”.

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,scottish-greens-release-list-of-2019-general-election-candidates_14722.htm
    They may have said that but I don't think that they did. Maybe wrong. If so it was an epically poor result, just over 1k a constituency.
    I've just counted them all, it was 22 and then there's this

    Scottish Greens upbeat despite losing all 22 election deposits

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18105392.scottish-greens-upbeat-despite-losing-22-election-deposits/
    Wow, pathetic. But it also confirms your point. The number of votes that Labour will pick up in Scotland from the Greens is effectively nil.
  • BigRich said:

    stodge said:

    Just picking up on @Chris_from_Paris's comment.

    We'll need a lot more evidence than one post-election poll before the "Right" (and I'm not wholly sure Pecresse would see herself in those terms) can hang out the bunting.

    Pecresse seems closer to Macron than to Zemmour or Le Pen (unlike Ciotti) and that's probably why she has that chance - unlike the other candidates, those who would back Macron against a Le Pen or a Zemmour would have no difficulty backing a Pecresse candidature in the run off.

    Zemmour's rise has been paralleled by the collapse in support for both Melanchon and Le Pen. Pecresse is only polling what Fillon got last time but because of the distribution of the votes on the Right, she gets through to the run off while he didn't.

    Totally agree with you, this is just one poll. It is only significant in that it breaks the myth of Macron's invincibility.

    But Pecresse defines herself as "a femme de droite" (right-wing woman).

    And she knows she has to take back all these Fillon voters who threaten to vote Le Pen or Zemmour... plus a bit of those who went to Macron.

    I agree with you that she is the only electable solution for the voters to the right of Macron (who are a majority).

    The left is in a dire situation. Hidalgo at 3 is below anyone's worst scenario for her. (she is the mayor of Paris and candidate of the party that governed France only 5 years ago)
    Besides her self description, what else is known about Pecresse? I'm guessing a moderate on most fronts, but with a slight right wing bias?

    She has been an advisor to Chirac and a minister under Sarkozy. As higher education minister she was responsible forthe law on university autonomy against strident opposition from student unions. As budget minister she was considered quite conservative and fiscally disciplined (at least for a French minister...).

    As region president she was criticized for her links with conservative catholic groups and tried to get tough on law and order (CCTV in trains, security teams for problem high schools). She had a good relationship with the business community.

    In France this qualifies as a right-wing CV and she was pictured as an extremist by the left and macronists during the regional campaign last June (she won with 46% in a 4-way 2nd round, the left getting 33, the lepeinist 11, the macronist 10).

    But her image remained softer ("maybe because I'm blonde" as she jokes) and so she put out a very tough program on immigration and law and order during the primary.
    She added some support for family benefits and a pledge to cut 200 000civil service jobs.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    It's just like HYUFD.

    Say one thing, show their assumption is wrong, and the goalposts get shifted.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656

    Bloody hell.

    Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied

    Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December

    Watch full video here:


    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    So this and the shambles of Afghanistan

    Doesn’t really look like a well functioning government does it?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    Farooq said:

    The cycle time between Boris lying and it being shown to be a lie is decreasing.

    Again, Conservative MPs have to get their letters in to the 1922. This has to stop.

    What happens, do you think, when Boris lies simultaneously with the truth being revealed?

    (Apart from Big G spontaneously combusting).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Farooq said:

    The cycle time between Boris lying and it being shown to be a lie is decreasing.

    Again, Conservative MPs have to get their letters in to the 1922. This has to stop.

    I do hope this is going to cause a lot of the electors of NS to think Jesus H Christ, enough is enough.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    Bloody hell.

    Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied

    Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December

    Watch full video here:


    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    What fucking country do we live in here?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Something odd has happened to the Mid Norfolk Labour Party website.

    http://www.midnorfolklabour.com
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Bloody hell.

    Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied

    Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December

    Watch full video here:


    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    What fucking country do we live in here?
    Joke's not funny any more.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    Bloody hell.

    Exclusive: Downing Street staff shown joking in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied

    Exclusive: Senior Downing Street staff joked about holding a Christmas party in Number 10 just four days after event is alleged to have taken place last December

    Watch full video here:


    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    davidallengreen
    @davidallengreen
    ·
    46s
    The interesting thing here is how, given Downing Street security, this footage came to be leaked

    Who in No 10 has access and the desire to do some major score settling or was this leak to reduce the impact of Pauline's Animal letter.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:


    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    · 7m
    At lunchtime Number 10 said a whistleblower’s claim the PM and his wife were involved in the evacuation of Nowzad staff was “untrue”.

    Just been passed a letter from the PM’s PPS Trudy Harrison to Pen Farthing to confirm Nowzad staff could travel to the airport to be evacuated.
    Show this thread

    Oh dear.
    Are you surprised?
    I knew he was lying when he issued that forceful denial than the truly gullible swallowed.
    Remember that the letter is from Trudy rather than No 10 directly so although his fingers are all over it, the actual letter didn't come from No 10.

    Although why someone was conducting Government business from within the House of Commons would be an interesting point to investigate.
    To be fair the letter was to Paul Farthing saying she has received the confirmation from the Foreign Office, Home Office and Defence that the evacuations can proceed
    How does the PPS of anyone get 3 crown departments to agree to something. At the very least she was making the calls of behalf of No 10 - and she wouldn't be doing that without Boris's express permission.
    I am content to await the judgment of the select committee to be fair and I do not think that after todays evidence they are going to spare anyone's blushes
    You were happy to defend Boris and Pauline until I pulled you up on it though...
    I am not happy to defend anyone but I do try to be fair

    I assume if Boris is shown not to have been involved all those who are condemning him today will reflect that it is better to have all the facts in ones possession first
This discussion has been closed.