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Voodoo polling v proper polling (festive edition) – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eek said:

    The cost of EV cars is a different issue - but I'm not so sure - currently an EV lease isn't much worse than a ICE one once you factor in the difference in price between electric and diesel.
    Wait till the lithium runs out
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353

    I never said not to have trains, I simply said they should be commercially run.

    Privatise them properly, abolish all subsidies, and let the train companies charge whatever is commercially appropriate to operate.

    If people don't want to pay a commercial rate to get into London on a train, they can invest elsewhere instead.
    Would it not make sense, if we did that, to start road pricing instead of fuel duty?

    That's a serious question from a man who commutes along the M6 Toll every weekday and has to pay through the nose for it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    So Loftus had become downus?
    It was certainly a big place in the Jurassic. Now ...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279

    It's possible. The fewer trains, the harder it is to leave work when you want to which lengthens your journey. It also makes it worse if the train you wanted to catch is cancelled, as it is longer to the next one. For example, my 1713 from Farnborough no longer runs. There is a 1703 or a 1733. So that adds 20 minutes onto the journey if you can't leave early.
    One thing that was discovered post-privatisation was that if you run more trains, more people travel. Increasing frequency of (say) an hourly service to a half-hourly leads to a previously full-train being replaced with two trains that are more than half-full.

    People *hate* waiting for trains and busses; make the wait shorter, and more people travel. Sadly, they haven't taken the next step and realised that waiting facilities matter (at anything other than large stations; they've learnt about the cash cows there).

    (There's at least one paper on this somewhere; I'll have to try to dig it up.)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited December 2021

    I never said not to have trains, I simply said they should be commercially run.

    Privatise them properly, abolish all subsidies, and let the train companies charge whatever is commercially appropriate to operate.

    If people don't want to pay a commercial rate to get into London on a train, they can invest elsewhere instead.
    The problem with that is that London needs x00,000 workers to arrive everyday and the infrastructure has been built for the last 200 years for these people to arrive by public transport.
    Replacing that infrastucture would cost way more than continuing that subsidy. Case in point the Limehouse tunnel (1 mile long cost £300m back in the 1993 - add inflation especially housing inflation and guess what it would cost to build now).

    The solution for TFL and network south east is to add a levy on London business rates to pay for TFL subsidy.

    The problem with that approach is that the levy would have a long term impact on the business rates chargeable in London and that costs the Treasury money...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    Would it not make sense, if we did that, to start road pricing instead of fuel duty?

    That's a serious question from a man who commutes along the M6 Toll every weekday and has to pay through the nose for it.
    Rail travellers pay pro rata for every metre of track on which they run. Drivers don't, not per mile driven: the general taxpayer does.

    Mileage taxation ... interesting idea. But hard on the rustics.
  • I can multitask.
    That reminds me of "MULTIPASS!"

    Another classic Bruce Willis movie!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,452
    Carnyx said:

    Rail travellers pay pro rata for every metre of track on which they run. Drivers don't, not per mile driven: the general taxpayer does.

    Mileage taxation ... interesting idea. But hard on the rustics.
    Limit it to Metropolitan areas.

    They mostly vote Labour anyway.....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,001
    Charles said:

    My best man worked for 2 years in a chlorine factory in Middlesbrough…

    He hasn’t been back since he met Roger Jenkins
    RJ stopped my smoking habit in 1977 ("smoking's for losers"). He was one of my students.

  • ydoethur said:

    Would it not make sense, if we did that, to start road pricing instead of fuel duty?

    That's a serious question from a man who commutes along the M6 Toll every weekday and has to pay through the nose for it.
    Road pricing done properly would be a tiny fraction of the cost of fuel duty, the cost of the M6 Toll is ridiculous especially considering the taxes those driving on it are already paying.
  • ydoethur said:

    Would it not make sense, if we did that, to start road pricing instead of fuel duty?

    That's a serious question from a man who commutes along the M6 Toll every weekday and has to pay through the nose for it.
    See my avatar? My "M6 extended remix" would incorporate a toll-free M6, er, Toll!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353
    edited December 2021

    Road pricing done properly would be a tiny fraction of the cost of fuel duty, the cost of the M6 Toll is ridiculous especially considering the taxes those driving on it are already paying.
    One of the advantages of fuel duty of course is it does reward careful, smooth, moderately paced driving which is also desirable environmentally.

    I am not sure whether, given the amount that will need spending on replacing bridges over the next 20 years, I agree about how much less it would be. It just seemed neater as a way of working and would make comparisons of cost more straightforward.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    Road pricing done properly would be a tiny fraction of the cost of fuel duty, the cost of the M6 Toll is ridiculous especially considering the taxes those driving on it are already paying.
    How does that work - whatever money the treasury gets from fuel duty needs to be replaced by something.

    It really wouldn't surprise me to see road pricing being 10p or more per mile.
  • Carnyx said:

    The old O, W and W was something of a loose end in the old days ... but not latterly. You are right!
    Went to Adlestrop (the name!) a few years ago. The old station sign now adorns the village bus shelter. A spine-tingling sight, so perhaps the shade of Edward Thomas was still lurking.
  • Carnyx said:

    Didn't someone on PB suggest it was a diversion tactic against the chatterati for being so rude as to complain about Mr Johnson's parties, non-masking in hospitals etc.?

    I do also wonder if other politicians are being targeted at the same time. Though I don't know enough about their habits to judge, and don't want to.
    When I was at uni the students who took a lot of illegal drugs all fitted the socioeconomic profile of the PM and most of the Cabinet. There is I would imagine a fair amount of hypocrisy at work here, including among voters who smoke and get drunk but say they want the government to get tough on drugs, as though they are not also drug users (and in the case of anyone who gets drunk, abusers).
  • Just to prove I have no "hard" feelings for TSE, I dedicate this "joke" to him:

    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw wot moved to Haiti?

    He became a Voodoo Pole!

    (I thank you!)
  • eek said:

    How does that work - whatever money the treasury gets from fuel duty needs to be replaced by something.

    It really wouldn't surprise me to see road pricing being 10p or more per mile.
    How about it gets replaced with taxes on trains at the same rate as cars are taxed?

    The Treasury shouldn't be treating drivers as a golden goose.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited December 2021

    One thing that was discovered post-privatisation was that if you run more trains, more people travel. Increasing frequency of (say) an hourly service to a half-hourly leads to a previously full-train being replaced with two trains that are more than half-full.

    People *hate* waiting for trains and busses; make the wait shorter, and more people travel. Sadly, they haven't taken the next step and realised that waiting facilities matter (at anything other than large stations; they've learnt about the cash cows there).

    (There's at least one paper on this somewhere; I'll have to try to dig it up.)
    There is a whole pile of papers on it - locally it's the justification for the improvements to Darlington's station - moving the Boro trains off the ECML will allow a 15 minute train service to Boro, Redcar and Saltburn / Whitby.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198219300144 seems a good starting point for the academic reports.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    F2 race abandoned after another crash. Both drivers okay.

    I have bad feelings about the F1 race.
  • On topic (vaguely), I'd like to share my argument that 2000 Miles by the Pretenders is NOT a Christmas song, even though it is routinely treated as such.

    It was written about the death of a member of the band, James Honeyman-Scott, who had died of a drug overdose in New York in the middle of June. The wintery references are to Chrissie Hynde's mental state, and are purely ironic given it is set in the middle of summer. A couple of Christmas references are specifically to it NOT being Christmas ("it felt LIKE Christmas time", "he'll be back at Christmas time") and "I can hear people singing, it must be Christmas time" is a nod to the funeral - just about the only time many people go to Church and join in singing, other than at Christmas.

    Of course, that's all undercut by the fact it was released at Christmas, with a Christmassy video... but that's the music biz for you.

    Saw an ad the other day to the tune of Fairytale of New York. Of course that is a Christmas song, but it struck me that "Merry Christmas my arse, I pray to God it's our last" was not really appropriate, especially as we are still in a pandemic and if granny and grandad catch covid off little Jimmy, it may well be their last. Maybe not many people actually know the words.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited December 2021

    How about it gets replaced with taxes on trains at the same rate as cars are taxed?

    The Treasury shouldn't be treating drivers as a golden goose.
    You cannot tell me that the £210 I will spend to get down to London by train next weekend gives the treasury less money than the £60 in fuel it would otherwise cost me.

    By my estimate that is 7-8 times more than I would be paying in fuel duty.

    Long distance rail journeys are seriously profitable - it's commuter services (especially those outside London) where the big losses are made.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited December 2021
    44k cases. Cases up, but testing up....I guess we will know in a couple of weeks time if its going to get really bad.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    edited December 2021
    Gen Z are disinterested in the Christmas status of a 33 year old movie with a star born 50 years before them. But they are no doubt furiously debating whether Hawkeye is a Christmas show (spoiler: it is).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Went to Adlestrop (the name!) a few years ago. The old station sign now adorns the village bus shelter. A spine-tingling sight, so perhaps the shade of Edward Thomas was still lurking.
    I'd never heard that! But so it is - must go there sometime just to pay homage.

    https://www.google.com/maps/@51.9425795,-1.6496536,3a,75y,117.92h,85.88t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1she2sdyimwkz-Ngx-JK8kpQ!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?panoid=he2sdyimwkz-Ngx-JK8kpQ&cb_client=maps_sv.tactile.gps&w=203&h=100&yaw=84.462166&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i13312!8i6656
  • moonshine said:

    Gen Z are disinterested in the Christmas status of a 33 year old movie with a star born 50 years before them. But they are no doubt furiously debating whether Hawkeye is a Christmas show (spoiler: it is).

    I was outraged to find my neighbours teenage kids had never seen Die Hard....
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,102

    F2 race abandoned after another crash. Both drivers okay.

    I have bad feelings about the F1 race.

    Hmm.. the track really doesn’t fill me with joy. Every car looks like it’s being raced on the edge…
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    F2 race abandoned after another crash. Both drivers okay.

    I have bad feelings about the F1 race.

    The circuit is a joke. Monza speeds with no runoffs. Constant parade of safety cars and red flags incoming.
    RIP Sir Frank.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited December 2021
    NEW: 20m boosters in British arms - UK is third country (only behind US and China) to pass landmark for 3rd doses (though still just under half of eligible adults have had their jab).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I never said not to have trains, I simply said they should be commercially run.

    Privatise them properly, abolish all subsidies, and let the train companies charge whatever is commercially appropriate to operate.

    If people don't want to pay a commercial rate to get into London on a train, they can invest elsewhere instead.
    How do you price in pollution, congestion, noise and other externalities associated with cars?
  • I was outraged to find my neighbours teenage kids had never seen Die Hard....
    I've never seen Die Hard!
    The best Christmas Movie is It's A Wonderful Life, anyway, so this whole discussion is kind of pointless...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I've never seen Die Hard!
    The best Christmas Movie is It's A Wonderful Life, anyway, so this whole discussion is kind of pointless...
    I've not seen Die Hard either.
  • I've never seen Die Hard!
    The best Christmas Movie is It's A Wonderful Life, anyway, so this whole discussion is kind of pointless...
    Off to GB News for you.....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    geoffw said:

    RJ stopped my smoking habit in 1977 ("smoking's for losers"). He was one of my students.

    Did you have him down as a future serial-model dating Demi-billionaire kingpin?
  • Carnyx said:

    I've not seen Die Hard either.
    And you...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,132

    I've never seen Die Hard!
    The best Christmas Movie is It's A Wonderful Life, anyway, so this whole discussion is kind of pointless...
    The Muppet Christmas Carol is far and away the best...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    I was outraged to find my neighbours teenage kids had never seen Die Hard....
    I watched Die Hard 3 the other day for the first time in ages. The zenith of Western civilisation pretty much. 1995, the most credible villain going was an East German bank robber. More innocent times…
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    I've never seen Die Hard!
    The best Christmas Movie is It's A Wonderful Life, anyway, so this whole discussion is kind of pointless...
    Again - the best Christmas Movie is The Muppet Christmas Carol - what's more unlike the other films people mention it's also British.

  • moonshine said:

    I watched Die Hard 3 the other day for the first time in ages. The zenith of Western civilisation pretty much. 1995, the most credible villain going was an East German bank robber. More innocent times…
    [spoiler]

    He was the brother of the robber in the first Die Hard!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Argument if Die Hard is a Christmas Movie misses the the point. It’s a shit film. If you have/not seen it, just forget it exists and move on.

    Next question?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    [spoiler]

    He was the brother of the robber in the first Die Hard!
    Family business innit
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,251

    The former is taxed to high heaven with fuel duty.

    The latter gets billions of taxes spent on it.

    Strip car taxes down to the amount that gets invested in roads, and have trains entirely funded by passengers and taxation on those passengers, and then see how popular they both are.
    There are more costs to road travel than just the cost of the roads.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,001
    Charles said:

    Did you have him down as a future serial-model dating Demi-billionaire kingpin?
    Hard as nails. Took no prisoners. Others jogged for health, he ran like mad with a backpack full of bricks. But I did teach him a thing or two, and am forever grateful for the smoking turn-off.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,482
    IshmaelZ said:

    Wait till the lithium runs out
    1) It won't.
    2) Iron sulphur batteries (or half a dozen other chemistries) might replace them anyway.

    Within five years EVs will be cheaper to build than the fossil fuel alternatives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353

    And you...
    Your Willis law.
  • On topic: a Christmas film, like Christmasusic,
    eek said:

    There are two types of commuter journey.

    Up north it will be car to factory / office / business park on the edge of town - that favours people driving cars.

    Elsewhere it will be into a central location (City / Town) - that favours public transport.

    The latter requires public transport for it to work sensible...
    I live very much down south. I used to commute 8 miles across the conurbation, which took me 20-30 minutes by car, depending on traffic.

    Public transport? An hour and a quarter minimum. Not counting extended waiting time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353

    Went to Adlestrop (the name!) a few years ago. The old station sign now adorns the village bus shelter. A spine-tingling sight, so perhaps the shade of Edward Thomas was still lurking.
    That confused me horribly for a moment, because when I think of 'railways' and 'Edward Thomas' I naturally think of the Talyllyn first.

    But then I remembered about the poet...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,449
    Afternoon all :)

    As we were discussing trains and have now gone on to pointless blethering about some film, try to drag us back to something approaching reality with my look at the passenger transport numbers.

    National Rail passenger numbers, having moved above 70% of pre-Covid in mid-November, fell back in the last full week of the month to the mid-60s. On the London Underground, passenger numbers peaked at 64% of pre-Covid on November 25th (the figure for the 26th, 44%) is distorted by the strike action on various lines.

    It's not hard to see the reasons for TfL's crisis - bus passenger numbers are 75-80% of pre-Covid but that doesn't help if you've lost a third of your passenger traffic on the tube.

    There's been the predictable excoriation of Sadiq Khan but it's hard to see how Boris Johnson, as Mayor, would have done any different. The fact is the operational financial model of TfL (and other passenger transport operators) has bene broken and if we are to believe Rishi Sunak who is unfortunately starting to look like a predictable Conservative Chancellor, there will be some big cuts to services as a condition for continued Government support.

    I presume the thinking will be the longer wait for your tube, train and bus will be mitigated by the comforting knowledge you'll be paying less in income tax (and of course the wealthier you are the greater the reduction).

    Notions of raising personal allowances or the threshold for higher rate taxation (which were at least an imaginative response) have been abandoned for good old-fashioned trickle-down.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    It's such a dumb policy. Imagine the case of a normal twenty or thirty something who occasionally takes MDMA when they go clubbing. They get caught and lose their driving license. They need their car for work so they lose their job and stop paying taxes. They go from being a successful fully functioning member of society to being a burden on taxpayers. All for possessing a substance far less harmful than alcohol or tobacco.
    Almost the only harm that a drug like MDMA does to society comes from the fact that criminals profit from it, which is entirely because it is illegal. It's a pure Catch-22 situation: it should be illegal because it's harmful because it's illegal. Only a government dead from the neck up and utterly bereft of ideas would come up with something this dumb.
    If the only harm was to the user, I’d agree. I know plenty of middle class professional drug partakers - along different ends of the usage spectrum - and, to the most part, it doesn’t impact their ability to work. Certainly less so than alcohol in a number of cases.

    However, my main point, was that the higher cost is borne by the poorer communities. Having wealthier individuals able to buy drugs provides the economic basis for many gangs to supply drugs to lower income groups. If there were not these buyers, the economics for a lot of the drugs trade would look less attractive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited December 2021
    Travel changes too late to halt potential new wave - scientist
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59536795

    But the government never claimed it would....as we know the only way to do so is to totally shutdown travel into your country.
  • We don't use Zoom but I can ask our IT boffins if it is possible to create a log in code for you all.

    There might be more fun than you can handle. The team comprises of 20 or so people, mostly lawyers, accountants, bankers, statisticians, and mathematicians.

    That is more excitement than most people can handle.
    Pants optional?
  • Carnyx said:

    I've not seen Die Hard either.
    Nor have I

    The last film I watched was the Railway Children (with Jenny Agutter) or the Great Escape, I just cannot remember.

    Mind you it might have been South Pacific !!!!!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited December 2021
    Re; the posters asking what's motivated this sudden drugs "crackdown", it seems that we've missed this story from just a couple of hours ago.

    Lindsey Hoyle is actually calling in police because of the amount of traces of drugs found on the parliamentary estate, including in the toilets next to Boris Johnson's office.

    It seems that this could be damage limitation, not least because of the very significant potential toxicity, so to speak, of it in combination with other current high-level corruption and double standards stories. The " whiff " of decadence, if you like.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/drugs-westminster-speaker-hoyle-police-b1970106.html
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited December 2021

    On topic: a Christmas film, like Christmasusic,

    I live very much down south. I used to commute 8 miles across the conurbation, which took me 20-30 minutes by car, depending on traffic.

    Public transport? An hour and a quarter minimum. Not counting extended waiting time.
    That's the point - public transport commuting only works if you are commuting into the centre. If the office isn't in the town / city centre it becomes a faff. It's why I've never said that Philip's idea doesn't work - just the fact Philip's idea doesn't work in some places.

    But when you apply the logic to London / Manchester / Edinburgh/ Glasgow / Newcastle you can see that if your workplace / office is in the city centre the only (sane) way to get there is via public transport.

    Which is why I pointed out that the costs need to be a levy on business rates in those areas.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    MrEd said:

    If the only harm was to the user, I’d agree. I know plenty of middle class professional drug partakers - along different ends of the usage spectrum - and, to the most part, it doesn’t impact their ability to work. Certainly less so than alcohol in a number of cases.

    However, my main point, was that the higher cost is borne by the poorer communities. Having wealthier individuals able to buy drugs provides the economic basis for many gangs to supply drugs to lower income groups. If there were not these buyers, the economics for a lot of the drugs trade would look less attractive.
    You’ve missed his point quite spectacularly there.
  • On topic (vaguely), I'd like to share my argument that 2000 Miles by the Pretenders is NOT a Christmas song, even though it is routinely treated as such.

    It was written about the death of a member of the band, James Honeyman-Scott, who had died of a drug overdose in New York in the middle of June. The wintery references are to Chrissie Hynde's mental state, and are purely ironic given it is set in the middle of summer. A couple of Christmas references are specifically to it NOT being Christmas ("it felt LIKE Christmas time", "he'll be back at Christmas time") and "I can hear people singing, it must be Christmas time" is a nod to the funeral - just about the only time many people go to Church and join in singing, other than at Christmas.

    Of course, that's all undercut by the fact it was released at Christmas, with a Christmassy video... but that's the music biz for you.

    It's become a Christmas song by usage.

    The key factor - both for Christmas music and Christmas films - is, I think, not "is it OK to listen to/watch this at Christmas" - but "would it be seen as a bit weird to listen to/watch it not at Christmas".
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    Re the posters asking what's motivated this sudden drugs "crackdown", it seems that we've missed this crucial story from a couple of hours ago.

    Lindsey Hoyle is actually calling in police because of the amount of traces of drugs found on the parliamentary estate, including in the toilets next to Boris Johnson's office.

    It seems that this could be damage limitation, not least because of the very significant potential toxicity of it, so to speak, in combination with other current high-level corruption and double standards stories. The "whiff of decadence", if you like.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/drugs-westminster-speaker-hoyle-police-b1970106.html

    How could we get a drug sniffer dog visiting No 10?
  • Nor have I

    The last film I watched was the Railway Children (with Jenny Agutter) or the Great Escape, I just cannot remember.

    Mind you it might have been South Pacific !!!!!
    I've seen Love Actually. That's a Christmas film!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,834

    Re; the posters asking what's motivated this sudden drugs "crackdown", it seems that we've missed this story from just a couple of hours ago.

    Lindsey Hoyle is actually calling in police because of the amount of traces of drugs found on the parliamentary estate, including in the toilets next to Boris Johnson's office.

    It seems that this could be damage limitation, not least because of the very significant potential toxicity, so to speak, of it in combination with other current high-level corruption and double standards stories. The " whiff " of decadence, if you like.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/drugs-westminster-speaker-hoyle-police-b1970106.html

    I was wondering whether the Govt have an inkling that the drug use is mainly Labour and are using this as a useful fight-back.

    Danger is it has shades of back to basics, and we know how that ended.
  • Nor have I

    The last film I watched was the Railway Children (with Jenny Agutter) or the Great Escape, I just cannot remember.

    Mind you it might have been South Pacific !!!!!
    I thought I was a bit tragic. But you win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353
    eek said:

    How could we get a drug sniffer dog visiting No 10?
    Tell Carrie it's a stray.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As we were discussing trains and have now gone on to pointless blethering about some film, try to drag us back to something approaching reality with my look at the passenger transport numbers.

    National Rail passenger numbers, having moved above 70% of pre-Covid in mid-November, fell back in the last full week of the month to the mid-60s. On the London Underground, passenger numbers peaked at 64% of pre-Covid on November 25th (the figure for the 26th, 44%) is distorted by the strike action on various lines.

    It's not hard to see the reasons for TfL's crisis - bus passenger numbers are 75-80% of pre-Covid but that doesn't help if you've lost a third of your passenger traffic on the tube.

    There's been the predictable excoriation of Sadiq Khan but it's hard to see how Boris Johnson, as Mayor, would have done any different. The fact is the operational financial model of TfL (and other passenger transport operators) has bene broken and if we are to believe Rishi Sunak who is unfortunately starting to look like a predictable Conservative Chancellor, there will be some big cuts to services as a condition for continued Government support.

    I presume the thinking will be the longer wait for your tube, train and bus will be mitigated by the comforting knowledge you'll be paying less in income tax (and of course the wealthier you are the greater the reduction).

    Notions of raising personal allowances or the threshold for higher rate taxation (which were at least an imaginative response) have been abandoned for good old-fashioned trickle-down.

    TfL has been in financial trouble for years; Covid has just brought all the troubles home to roost. However: Khan's fare freeze was a stupid electoral bung, as many people said at the time, and worsened a bad problem.

    Try to excuse Sadiq as much as you like: the fare freeze was a cast-iron sign that he was uninterested in the finances of TfL - as he thought the government would have to bail them out.

    Incidentally, the whole situation was made worse by TfL's greed in trying to hoover up as much transport in and around the capital as they could get: e.g. the creation of London Overground.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,449
    I suspect, rather like the coronavirus, drug use and abuse in this country is endemic meaning we have to learn to live with it rather than harbour any expectations we can eliminate it completely.

    As I've argued recently, I'm left wondering what the point of a law if you're not able to adequately enforce it? It's clear in my part of town, drug use among some sections of the community is endemic and the consequence of the current criminalisation is or are begging and other petty crime and criminality by addicts to fund their habits.

    What would be the impact of legalisation? I'm not wholly convinced it's the panacea some proponents suggest. After all, we've legalised gambling but we know there's still too many who get sucked into addiction with awful consequences for themselves and those around them (and often wholly innocent victims who are "collateral damage").

    There's the aspect of the allure of the drug business and how, for those who believe they have no prospects in the legitimate world or economy, the attraction of substantial amounts of apparently easy money from dealing or supplying is powerful.
  • I thought I was a bit tragic. But you win.
    And I am not joking - I rarely ever watch films
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    Mail: Boris Johnson is today facing more pressure to explain events at Downing Street Christmas parties last year after his deputy admitted any 'formal' events would have breached Covid laws.

    Dominic Raab made the admission after Labour MPs demanded the Metropolitan Police probe two gatherings in November and December last year.

    Both are said to have seen 40 or 50 people crammed 'cheek by jowl' in an inside room, and one is reported to have included a secret Santa and festive quiz.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    stodge said:

    I suspect, rather like the coronavirus, drug use and abuse in this country is endemic meaning we have to learn to live with it rather than harbour any expectations we can eliminate it completely.

    As I've argued recently, I'm left wondering what the point of a law if you're not able to adequately enforce it? It's clear in my part of town, drug use among some sections of the community is endemic and the consequence of the current criminalisation is or are begging and other petty crime and criminality by addicts to fund their habits.

    What would be the impact of legalisation? I'm not wholly convinced it's the panacea some proponents suggest. After all, we've legalised gambling but we know there's still too many who get sucked into addiction with awful consequences for themselves and those around them (and often wholly innocent victims who are "collateral damage").

    There's the aspect of the allure of the drug business and how, for those who believe they have no prospects in the legitimate world or economy, the attraction of substantial amounts of apparently easy money from dealing or supplying is powerful.

    Got to say this new Drugs law (if it exists) is going to be very much like gambling with something like a 1% chance of being caught and the an additional 50% chance that the police screw up the evidence enough that it doesn't stand up in court.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    Nigelb said:

    1) It won't.
    2) Iron sulphur batteries (or half a dozen other chemistries) might replace them anyway.

    Within five years EVs will be cheaper to build than the fossil fuel alternatives.
    I think that timescale is a little over-optimistic, though I hope you're correct.

    There will be pain in the transfer over to EV, but the pain will be endured.
  • And I am not joking - I rarely ever watch films
    Yes, fair enough, but you are really pushing it to the extreme. South Pacific ffs. My parents had the LP. It was ancient history in the early 1970s. You have missed *A LOT*.
  • IanB2 said:

    Mail: Boris Johnson is today facing more pressure to explain events at Downing Street Christmas parties last year after his deputy admitted any 'formal' events would have breached Covid laws.

    Dominic Raab made the admission after Labour MPs demanded the Metropolitan Police probe two gatherings in November and December last year.

    Both are said to have seen 40 or 50 people crammed 'cheek by jowl' in an inside room, and one is reported to have included a secret Santa and festive quiz.

    Marr displayed the rule and it seems for it to be illegal it would have to be a party , not a few drinks at the end of the day in a work environment

    I doubt we will ever know
  • Rishi Sunak really is a £$@* and other rude words.

    He really hates the trains and the users therein.

    Train operators have been told to find ways to cut hundreds of millions of pounds from the railway’s operating costs next year, in a move that is likely to spell fewer services and worse stations for passengers.

    The Department for Transport seeks to cut spending by 10% following Rishi Sunak’s autumn budget.

    With the Treasury anxious to limit spending on rail, which increased massively during the pandemic, letters from the DfT’s managing director of passenger services, Peter Wilkinson, have been sent to individual operators setting out the swingeing cuts needed across the industry.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/05/back-bad-old-days-swingeing-rail-cuts-alarm-bells-ringing

    We're back to the stupid command control fuckwittery of this supposedly Tory government. Since the rail sector bankrupted itself, we now have an army of DfT mandarins trying to manage the industry on restricted budgets. They have no idea how a railway works hence stupidity like Cross Country being commanded to park up its HSTs to save wedge.

    What is needed is StateCo - a government owned commercial enterprise to run the railways. Like Deutsche Bahn. Who own Arriva. Who operate the Cross Country franchise.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Mail: Boris Johnson is today facing more pressure to explain events at Downing Street Christmas parties last year after his deputy admitted any 'formal' events would have breached Covid laws.

    Dominic Raab made the admission after Labour MPs demanded the Metropolitan Police probe two gatherings in November and December last year.

    Both are said to have seen 40 or 50 people crammed 'cheek by jowl' in an inside room, and one is reported to have included a secret Santa and festive quiz.

    Hmm.

    That Independent report below about Lindsey Hoyle mentions "politicians openly snorting cocaine at a party".

    Not at no.10, surely, and the centre of national government itself ? The world would be shocked , and astounded !
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    TfL has been in financial trouble for years; Covid has just brought all the troubles home to roost. However: Khan's fare freeze was a stupid electoral bung, as many people said at the time, and worsened a bad problem.

    Try to excuse Sadiq as much as you like: the fare freeze was a cast-iron sign that he was uninterested in the finances of TfL - as he thought the government would have to bail them out.

    Incidentally, the whole situation was made worse by TfL's greed in trying to hoover up as much transport in and around the capital as they could get: e.g. the creation of London Overground.
    Sadiq has been told to find a source of money to provide the subsidy required - supposedly by mid November but extended now until December 8th.

    That "subsidy" can only come from a levy on Council tax or business rates - and the Government is being very clear as to who has to suggest the idea.

    And yes,. the fare freeze was an incredibly stupid idea (as such things always are).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    We're back to the stupid command control fuckwittery of this supposedly Tory government. Since the rail sector bankrupted itself, we now have an army of DfT mandarins trying to manage the industry on restricted budgets. They have no idea how a railway works hence stupidity like Cross Country being commanded to park up its HSTs to save wedge.

    What is needed is StateCo - a government owned commercial enterprise to run the railways. Like Deutsche Bahn. Who own Arriva. Who operate the Cross Country franchise.
    Which is what Great British Rail is supposed to be - but that is already been cut because the DfT are frankly both useless and don't want to lose any "power" they have.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    eek said:

    How could we get a drug sniffer dog visiting No 10?
    Supporters of prohibition are dreamers. It can’t ever be effected properly. Even in countries where possession carries the death penalty, drug abuse still goes on under the surface, with the harsh enforcement policies leading to even more ruthless criminal syndicates to facilitate the trade.

    Policy is about choosing between hard choices. Either you can criminalise otherwise law abiding contributors to society and enable a vast black economy that funds all manner of other criminal activity. Or you accept that humans are gonna get high and seek to legislate in such a way to minimise societal harm in the process.

    It genuinely puzzles me that we are still stuck on the same broken record.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,223
    edited December 2021
    On topic, my favourite voodoo polls are twitter ones which get pulled when the tweeter doesn't like the result. Very informative in their way.


  • Yes, fair enough, but you are really pushing it to the extreme. South Pacific ffs. My parents had the LP. It was ancient history in the early 1970s. You have missed *A LOT*.
    South Pacific was a little tongue in cheek but I was dragged to watch my sister perform in South Pacific at the local theatre in the mid fifties
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Nor have I

    The last film I watched was the Railway Children (with Jenny Agutter) or the Great Escape, I just cannot remember.

    Mind you it might have been South Pacific !!!!!
    Keep up the Happy Talk Big G 🙂
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited December 2021
    moonshine said:

    Supporters of prohibition are dreamers. It can’t ever be effected properly. Even in countries where possession carries the death penalty, drug abuse still goes on under the surface, with the harsh enforcement policies leading to even more ruthless criminal syndicates to facilitate the trade.

    Policy is about choosing between hard choices. Either you can criminalise otherwise law abiding contributors to society and enable a vast black economy that funds all manner of other criminal activity. Or you accept that humans are gonna get high and seek to legislate in such a way to minimise societal harm in the process.

    It genuinely puzzles me that we are still stuck on the same broken record.
    The issue is that often the sane choices are "brave" decisions because no one is prepared to do the education required to explain why you are doing what you are doing.

    Believe it or not HS2 is a prime example of this. It's sold as speed but in reality it's about Capacity. However speed doesn't require any explanation but the impact on capacity of trains running at different speeds would require a lot of explanation.. So HS2 was sold as faster trains to London and all the other benefits went unsaid.
  • eek said:

    Sadiq has been told to find a source of money to provide the subsidy required - supposedly by mid November but extended now until December 8th.

    That "subsidy" can only come from a levy on Council tax or business rates - and the Government is being very clear as to who has to suggest the idea.

    And yes,. the fare freeze was an incredibly stupid idea (as such things always are).
    It wasn't even a fare freeze, except for tourists and occasional travellers.
  • ydoethur said:

    That confused me horribly for a moment, because when I think of 'railways' and 'Edward Thomas' I naturally think of the Talyllyn first.

    But then I remembered about the poet...
    "All the birds of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire" has an echo of Housman's Bredon Hill which you mentioned a few months ago. All the birds of Worcestershire and Gloucestershire, indeed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    On topic, my favourite voodoo polls are twitter ones which get pulled when the tweeter doesn't like the result. Very informative in their way.


    As a none twitter expert, how are you seeing the tweet if it is has been deleted?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    Marr displayed the rule and it seems for it to be illegal it would have to be a party , not a few drinks at the end of the day in a work environment

    I doubt we will ever know
    I thought that from the very first time I heard the story - it's not a party it's just some overtime with little work and a bit of alcohol. Everyone attending has already spent 6+ hours with each other that day so no one has any additional risk of getting Covid.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,734
    Eric Zemmour has launched his new party called “Reconquest”.

    image
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    eek said:

    The issue is that often the sane choices are "brave" decisions because no one is prepared to do the education required to explain why you are doing what you are doing.
    It’s because they have to undo the decades of propaganda before they can even start the education! As my old grandad once said, when he was a lad opiate addicts were pitied rather than criminalised. “No one would choose that life, it makes no sense trying to send them to prison” or words to that effect.

    In a perfect world we’d have a JV between the Ministries of Health and Science researching the perfect narcotic. One which carries no physical addiction, has minimal negative health consequences and where the effects can be switched off by antidote.
  • Jeddah GP - I won't be at all surprised if the title is settled today by one of them going into the wall.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    We're back to the stupid command control fuckwittery of this supposedly Tory government. Since the rail sector bankrupted itself, we now have an army of DfT mandarins trying to manage the industry on restricted budgets. They have no idea how a railway works hence stupidity like Cross Country being commanded to park up its HSTs to save wedge.

    What is needed is StateCo - a government owned commercial enterprise to run the railways. Like Deutsche Bahn. Who own Arriva. Who operate the Cross Country franchise.
    And bus services everywhere - I used to catch an Arriva bus to take me from the Metro in Copenhagen to the office I was working at.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,449


    TfL has been in financial trouble for years; Covid has just brought all the troubles home to roost. However: Khan's fare freeze was a stupid electoral bung, as many people said at the time, and worsened a bad problem.

    Try to excuse Sadiq as much as you like: the fare freeze was a cast-iron sign that he was uninterested in the finances of TfL - as he thought the government would have to bail them out.

    Incidentally, the whole situation was made worse by TfL's greed in trying to hoover up as much transport in and around the capital as they could get: e.g. the creation of London Overground.

    The issue pre-Covid was the network, hampered in some places by antiquated track and signalling, was running at capacity. Trains were full and there simply wasn't the capacity to run more trains over some parts of the system because the signalling couldn't handle it.

    Many cities have co-ordinated passenger transport systems - bringing some of the rail lines into TfL was generally and genuinely welcomed at the time.

    The problem now is a third of the passengers have gone - the Government insisted in 2020 as a condition of bail out all services were maintained so you had empty tubes going up and down the lines. TfL have begun to reduce capacity discretely by not replacing drivers who leave - fewer drivers means more gaps in the service whether they are called "cancellations" or not.

    If Sunak wants to look "tough" and reduce the subsidy, the options will either be a big Council Tax rise (which any future Conservative Mayor will have to retain) or a reduction in services (up to 10% of buses could be axed) or the complete mothballing of one or more lines (the Bakerloo, for a number of reasons, is the obvious target but even then maintenance will have to continue so it's not a complete saving).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080

    Marr displayed the rule and it seems for it to be illegal it would have to be a party , not a few drinks at the end of the day in a work environment

    I doubt we will ever know
    I think we already know. There's a reason why every government spokesperson is parroting the same line and refusing to say any more.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    Jeddah GP - I won't be at all surprised if the title is settled today by one of them going into the wall.

    If Lewis goes into the wall it's game over.

    However, assuming Lewis gets to the first corner is first place it will be Max having to take all the risks, Lewis will be able to ignore the issues behind him.
  • eek said:

    I thought that from the very first time I heard the story - it's not a party it's just some overtime with little work and a bit of alcohol. Everyone attending has already spent 6+ hours with each other that day so no one has any additional risk of getting Covid.
    That seems to be what happened and why Boris insists the rules were not broken

    Until Marr showed the actual regulation, it did seem it was illegal but I would suggest everyone who is so convinced on this story including the daily mirror just check the actual definition in the regulations and realise it could well have conformed with covid rules
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited December 2021
    stodge said:

    The issue pre-Covid was the network, hampered in some places by antiquated track and signalling, was running at capacity. Trains were full and there simply wasn't the capacity to run more trains over some parts of the system because the signalling couldn't handle it.

    Many cities have co-ordinated passenger transport systems - bringing some of the rail lines into TfL was generally and genuinely welcomed at the time.

    The problem now is a third of the passengers have gone - the Government insisted in 2020 as a condition of bail out all services were maintained so you had empty tubes going up and down the lines. TfL have begun to reduce capacity discretely by not replacing drivers who leave - fewer drivers means more gaps in the service whether they are called "cancellations" or not.

    If Sunak wants to look "tough" and reduce the subsidy, the options will either be a big Council Tax rise (which any future Conservative Mayor will have to retain) or a reduction in services (up to 10% of buses could be axed) or the complete mothballing of one or more lines (the Bakerloo, for a number of reasons, is the obvious target but even then maintenance will have to continue so it's not a complete saving).
    It's more than the mothballing of the Bakerloo line - I believe its 20% of bus services and the Bakerloo line.

    Edit 18% see https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/tfl-financial-crisis-tube-line-closed-bankruptcy-b968230.html
  • RobD said:

    As a none twitter expert, how are you seeing the tweet if it is has been deleted?
    Presumably the person who tweeted the screenshot must have used Wayback Machine or similar.

    https://twitter.com/Friseal/status/1467096792772845571?s=20

    The 'pollster' is currently aff his nut on a 'Sturgeon is the new Thatcher' meme. These people are seriously weird.

    https://twitter.com/FacundoSavala/status/1467409383470546945?s=20
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited December 2021
    moonshine said:

    It’s because they have to undo the decades of propaganda before they can even start the education! As my old grandad once said, when he was a lad opiate addicts were pitied rather than criminalised. “No one would choose that life, it makes no sense trying to send them to prison” or words to that effect.

    In a perfect world we’d have a JV between the Ministries of Health and Science researching the perfect narcotic. One which carries no physical addiction, has minimal negative health consequences and where the effects can be switched off by antidote.
    Some doctors appear to be warming to the idea that microdoses of LSD and magic mushrooms might roughly fit this profile, according to the report I posted up here earlier in the week.

    According to the government's new post-Boris Johnson's toilets crackdown announced today, these would lose you your license and freedom to travel, ofcourse.
  • IanB2 said:

    I think we already know. There's a reason why every government spokesperson is parroting the same line and refusing to say any more.
    As a matter of interest did you watch Marr and read the definition and understand just why this may well have been legal
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    😕
    I’m genuine sorry if I touched a nerve on Scottish Separatism that matters to you. To be honest divvy I really would like to listen and learn here as I have never chatted with SNP before. can you answer a few straightforward questions about it?

    1. Last time ref said it wanted to keep both the £ and the Monarchy? Will that be exactly the same in the next ref?
    2. Really? Having both those things, is it proper independence from continued English and London influence? or a sort of half way house have your cake and eat it independence?
    3. Surely the only True definition of independence is own currency and negotiate trade deal with what’s left of UK and everywhere else? Like Ireland? Because the place to avoid is the basket case facade democracy, Zimbabwe ending up in, you can have a parliament but not own the land, the resources, the ability to tax the necessary amount of wealth?
    4. If Scotland has independence from England, does it have the economy and assets to maintain the current lifestyle, free higher education etc, enough wealth owned, invested and generated, to tax, to maintain standards of living it currently enjoys? What main industry will it have other than tourism?
    5. Basically boils down to simple question, are the English currently takers from Scotland, Scotland takers from England, or current balance about right and fair?
    6. If you want to keep the monarchy, then why not trust a Royal Commission how we can share these Isles, in a helping sharing UK commonwealth (which it should already have been the last few hundred years) where everyone’s regional and local identity feels in a happy place? But To create such a happy place cannot be achieved through ramping nationalism and localism, and holding separatist referendums, can it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    edited December 2021

    As a matter of interest did you watch Marr and read the definition and understand just why this may well have been legal
    Eating, drinking, and playing party games isn't ever going to come under the definition of a gathering that is primarily for business reasons, is it?

    You spent an entire year telling us all what a charlatan Boris was. Don't start defending him now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,132
    moonshine said:

    It’s because they have to undo the decades of propaganda before they can even start the education! As my old grandad once said, when he was a lad opiate addicts were pitied rather than criminalised. “No one would choose that life, it makes no sense trying to send them to prison” or words to that effect.

    In a perfect world we’d have a JV between the Ministries of Health and Science researching the perfect narcotic. One which carries no physical addiction, has minimal negative health consequences and where the effects can be switched off by antidote.
    That was how oxycontin was marketed, and if you go back far enough, heroin too.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,223
    edited December 2021

    Eric Zemmour has launched his new party called “Reconquest”.

    image

    Presumably Zemmour is entirely aware of the Reconquista connotation. Surely he could have found a Gallic anti Muslim historic parallel?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Foxy said:

    That was how oxycontin was marketed, and if you go back far enough, heroin too.
    And Guinness!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Yeah, whatever. The Bakerloo line won’t be mothballed and - guess what - the Tube will keep on trucking.

    Regardless of the bizarre fantasies of the bumpkins on PB.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    stodge said:

    The issue pre-Covid was the network, hampered in some places by antiquated track and signalling, was running at capacity. Trains were full and there simply wasn't the capacity to run more trains over some parts of the system because the signalling couldn't handle it.

    Many cities have co-ordinated passenger transport systems - bringing some of the rail lines into TfL was generally and genuinely welcomed at the time.

    The problem now is a third of the passengers have gone - the Government insisted in 2020 as a condition of bail out all services were maintained so you had empty tubes going up and down the lines. TfL have begun to reduce capacity discretely by not replacing drivers who leave - fewer drivers means more gaps in the service whether they are called "cancellations" or not.

    If Sunak wants to look "tough" and reduce the subsidy, the options will either be a big Council Tax rise (which any future Conservative Mayor will have to retain) or a reduction in services (up to 10% of buses could be axed) or the complete mothballing of one or more lines (the Bakerloo, for a number of reasons, is the obvious target but even then maintenance will have to continue so it's not a complete saving).
    So you're saying the problem pre-Covid was outdated infrastructure. If that was the case, the answer was simple: invest in the infrastructure - i.e. spend - rather than have a massive electoral bung in the form of a fare freeze, and make matters worse.
This discussion has been closed.