That ‘story’ is a nothing burger - there is no news in it whatsoever. A shamefully rubbish front page (non) story.
Instead of which, nearly all of the press seems to have missed the drugs-in-Boris Johnson's office-toilets, and Lindsey Hoyle calling in the police story today. Most odd.
Lockdown incoming, we have lost control of the virus yet again
No we haven’t. We still don’t know how serious omicron will be. If most cases are mild, there will be no issue. We anxiously wait on hard data, and must make do with anecdotes in the interim. Some good news today from SA. All is not lost.
Yes. Given the fact that most SA medics say this is a mild(er) variant, some early analysis suggest it’s a mild(er) variant and most patients are presenting with mild(er) symptoms, is there not a whiff of a chance that it is, er, a milder variant?
F1 is boring, just cars whizzing around in a circle. Also causes pollution, because the vehicles aren't electric.
So there!
Actually F1 has quite possibly been very good for the environment, not negative for it.
A lot of technological and efficiency advances have been developed for F1 vehicles that have then reached general vehicles as a result. Since there's only a few F1 vehicles but there's billions of general vehicles, improving efficiency in general vehicles more than makes up for any fuel consumed in F1.
That very much reminds me of the argument that Christianity has been a force for good because look at all the paintings, look at all the architecture. It's difficult to know what artistic works would have been made without religion "driving" it. Perhaps as much? Perhaps less? Perhaps more? Kind of difficult to quantify.
Another day, another example of David Cameron’s Twitter maxim.
Why are political parties still not properly vetting their candidates’ social media histories, when they know that not-so-friendly opponents and newspapers definitely will be?
Helen Morgan, Lib Dem candidate in North Shropshire with today’s Godwin award, for writing, in the context of her son reading a book about the Holocaust:
“He commented that the Nazis were only able to do such terrible things because they didn’t think their victims were people. He’s 11. On Twitter this morning, there are people talking about cancelling their RNLI donations because they have picked up “illegals”. The language used every day in this country – by the Government, press and people with thousands of followers on social media – it’s nothing short of chilling.”
Then she liked a post from someone who replied:
‘Having visited Auschwitz concentration camp in the recent past. It really brings home man’s inhumanity to man. Now on a daily basis the language and actions of the Conservative Party make me more and more concerned about the direction they are taking the UK and its people.’
Her own post is totally on the money. The post she liked is perhaps a bit over the top. But I'm sure that plenty of people share the sentiment that the othering and scapegoating of refugees that's going on in this country right now is chilling, and, for anyone with a knowledge of European history, has some alarming historical resonances.
The suggestion that the Tories are similar to the Nazis in outlook and policies is absurd and, frankly, as good an example of "othering" as you will find. The SNP do very similar things demonising something like 25% of Scots who vote Tory and who, as a result, are apparently not real Scots. It also encourages the arrogance and moral superiority complex that so many liberals, in the broadest sense, are prone to and is one of the reasons that they fail at the ballot box.
There was a chap about 2000 years ago who had some interesting observations about motes and beams. She should reflect on it.
Thank goodness Tories and Unionists never indulge in that kind of behaviour (I couldn’t find the photoshop of Sturgeon in an SS uniform so beloved by your fruitier fellow travellers, I suspect twitter may have banned it). Motes and beams indeed.
That’s the one. Ironically what one might call the far right in Scotland tends to Unionism.
That’s a very seriously point actually as to why the SNP are wrong. Like Hitler they love the politics of nationalism. SNP won’t last much longer. People of Scotland will tire of the Nationalism spectacles, gravitate to another approach and Scot nationalism will go back to be a fringe thing.
I see you’re as insightful and original on this topic as on others.
😕
I’m genuine sorry if I touched a nerve on Scottish Separatism that matters to you. To be honest divvy I really would like to listen and learn here as I have never chatted with SNP before. can you answer a few straightforward questions about it?
1. Last time ref said it wanted to keep both the £ and the Monarchy? Will that be exactly the same in the next ref? 2. Really? Having both those things, is it proper independence from continued English and London influence? or a sort of half way house have your cake and eat it independence? 3. Surely the only True definition of independence is own currency and negotiate trade deal with what’s left of UK and everywhere else? Like Ireland? Because the place to avoid is the basket case facade democracy, Zimbabwe ending up in, you can have a parliament but not own the land, the resources, the ability to tax the necessary amount of wealth? 4. If Scotland has independence from England, does it have the economy and assets to maintain the current lifestyle, free higher education etc, enough wealth owned, invested and generated, to tax, to maintain standards of living it currently enjoys? What main industry will it have other than tourism? 5. Basically boils down to simple question, are the English currently takers from Scotland, Scotland takers from England, or current balance about right and fair? 6. If you want to keep the monarchy, then why not trust a Royal Commission how we can share these Isles, in a helping sharing UK commonwealth (which it should already have been the last few hundred years) where everyone’s regional and local identity feels in a happy place? But To create such a happy place cannot be achieved through ramping nationalism and localism, and holding separatist referendums, can it?
On the whole currency thing, I think it's widely acknowledged that the proposal to keep the pound was disingenuously sold and very poor politics. The factual point about it being viable in the short term was true, but it was an impossible message to sell to the public. I think the reality was that as soon as independence happened, or possibly even as part of the negotiations, the Scottish government would have pivoted away from that and launched their own currency / gone straight to the Euro if the EU accession fast-track would have been on. As a long term proposal, using the pound wouldn't have worked and I think the people saw through that particular ruse. Keeping the monarchy is a different matter. I'm certain the Scottish government wouldn't have moved at all on changing that. I can foresee a future, post-independence campaign for it, but I don't know whether it would really get the traction, and nobody on the mild-republican side of Scottish politics would want to risk their own position fighting a losing battle.
As for the comments comparing any mainstream UK party with the Nazis, you're clearly an idiot.
Thank you for what was almost a measured response. 🙂
Hitler was a Nazi - Not a nationalist? So I can’t make a comparison between SNP and all parties and all politicians who exploit nationalism? Who Wrap them themselves in flags? Wear nationalist glasses?
If I can’t, I do apologise.
No you can't and yes you should apologise. Equating all nationalist movements - or even most of them - with the Nazis is clearly both ignorant and stupid. Was Gandhi a Nazi? Were those fighting for independence for South Somalia or East Timor Nazis? Any of the countries who gained independence from European power post colonialism?
You might as well equate vegetarians and animal lovers with Nazis as Hitler was both of those. And sadly some have even tried to do that though I would have hoped most posting on PB has a bit more intelligence than that.
I appreciate Richards explanation to me has a lot of likes now. I do apologies to everyone I have clumsily insulted today. I obviously don’t understand this stuff at all well.
Because I always believed when politicians reached for Nationalism it was not such a good thing. Like this Winston Churchill quote “Patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism, when hate for people other than your own comes first”.
So being called Nationalist Party is confusing guide to their politics that is really just democratic and patriotic.
If any silver lining at all I am listening and learning thank you all, so please keep pointing out my mistakes so I can get it right when Prime Minister. Thank you. 🙏🏻
Wasn't that in the context of intriguing against Neville Chamberlain's attempt to rebrand the Conservative party as the National party?
I don’t know 🤷♀️
What he is saying seems very black and white, but I learned today Nationalism used in politics is rather more nuanced than I ever realised.
Neville Chamberlain led the National Government (and refused ever to be called 'Conservative' which he described as an 'odious name') and which included the National Liberals and the National Labour Party as well as non-party MPs elected to support the National government e.g. Sir John Anderson. He wanted to unite them all in one party under that name. Never quite happened although had he been able to lead them into an election in 1939 or 1940 it might have been.
Churchill of course was not opposed to all nationalism. He was for example, quite happy with Mussolini's version or with the Showa version in Japan until they attacked the British Empire.
That's why I was asking whether that was the context.
“ Churchill of course was not opposed to all nationalism. “
So Churchill only opposed to some use of Nationalism? Can you say which are those, when it’s fair and good and not good? I still feel a disconnect between me and the whole of PB. I’ll have a go at answering my own question.
When Gordon Brown wrapped himself in Union Jack at Party conference with British Jobs for British Workers, I still feel that was 100% wrong. Apart from the fact it stopped the weird milliband brother becoming Prime Minister. All because he hard questions to answer, but instead of asking him for those answers his conference lapped it up as he said it.
I didn’t mean to imply Gordon Brown and Nicola sturgeons are Nazi as I never believed that and how you all painted me. But, and you have put doubts in my mind, and it may be idiot to still think like this, if politicians want supporters lapping it up and not scrutinising, I always felt they are using some techniques of Adolf Hitlers playbook without actually being full Nazi, if that makes sense. Avoiding scrutiny by placing a flag between him and the questions.
I don’t think Nationalism is always used so fair and proper as you and certainly Richards post, and everyone else here believe. I may be on my own, but I still feel a gulf between us.
Brecel now in deeper trouble than Horner if he dines at a restaurant owned by TSE.
(Edit - I know TSE isn't a restauranter, I'm just imagining scenarios where TSE gets his revenge by buying Horner's favourite restaurant and ordering all pizza be served with pineapple and arsenic.)
If Hamilton does win the title - especially given the way he's fought back - I think it opens up SPOTY again. Astonishing and unprecedented though her US open win was, the Rad has not subsequently pulled up many trees.
In tennis, the only things which count are the Slams (and arguably the Olympics and Davis/BJK Cups). She hasn't played in any of those since the US Open win.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
On Saturday the US made what it described as the largest transfer ever of military equipment in one day, to the Greek port of Alexandroupoli, with a view to the Black Sea.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
On Saturday the US made what it described as the largest transfer ever of military equipment in one day, to the Greek port of Alexandroupoli, with a view to the Black Sea.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
On Saturday the US made what it described as the largest transfer ever of military equipment in one day, to the Greek port of Alexandroupoli, with a view to the Black Sea.
Bigger than D-Day?
If it's bigger than Okinawa it must be going some.
Not sure. A modern ro-ro ship landing at a friendly port could offload an awful lot of material very quickly.
If Omicron really does spread like wildfire and it must have been around in largely unvaccinated South Africa for several weeks, wouldn't we be expecting an Italy style situation by now if if was really dangerous?
Also appears to have a shorter incubation period. I think if it was as serious as Delta, we'd have known about it by now. So far, it's looking like it's highly transmissible, but much milder than other variants. We do, of course, need more data, but so far the signs seem quite encouraging to me.
we defiantly still need more data, but I'm feeling more confidant in my cynical prediction that we will regret the travel ban from southern Africa, as we discover that omicron is less deadly but also gives a level of immunity to other variants!!!!
A few weeks ago a prominent German decarded that 'by the end of the winter, everybody will have been vaccinated, recovered or dead!'
I think that we can refine that now to 'Vaccinated, Omicroned, Recovered (from Delta) or Dead'
Vaccinated may be better than Omicroned, but Omicroned is better that than the last too.
The more people who get Omicron soon, the less will be left to get Delta, next week/month and therefor less overall death. OK not enough data to say this is definably correct, and I am more joking than anything else, but maybe we should be paying people with Omicron to come to the UK and socialize as much as possible?
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
On Saturday the US made what it described as the largest transfer ever of military equipment in one day, to the Greek port of Alexandroupoli, with a view to the Black Sea.
That's what I assumed originally, too, but another article mentioned about a thousand armoured vehicles and hundreds of helicopters and aircraft. That sounded much more like something much separate from the history of the port itself, but who knows.
At the very least, BIden is clearly massively beefing up the US's presence in and around the Black Sea area.
If Omicron really does spread like wildfire and it must have been around in largely unvaccinated South Africa for several weeks, wouldn't we be expecting an Italy style situation by now if if was really dangerous?
Also appears to have a shorter incubation period. I think if it was as serious as Delta, we'd have known about it by now. So far, it's looking like it's highly transmissible, but much milder than other variants. We do, of course, need more data, but so far the signs seem quite encouraging to me.
we defiantly still need more data, but I'm feeling more confidant in my cynical prediction that we will regret the travel ban from southern Africa, as we discover that omicron is less deadly but also gives a level of immunity to other variants!!!!
A few weeks ago a prominent German decarded that 'by the end of the winter, everybody will have been vaccinated, recovered or dead!'
I think that we can refine that now to 'Vaccinated, Omicroned, Recovered (from Delta) or Dead'
Vaccinated may be better than Omicroned, but Omicroned is better that than the last too.
The more people who get Omicron soon, the less will be left to get Delta, next week/month and therefor less overall death. OK not enough data to say this is definably correct, and I am more joking than anything else, but maybe we should be paying people with Omicron to come to the UK and socialize as much as possible?
OK. Though if having had Delta doesn't protect you from Omicron then it quite possibly doesn't work the other way round either.
Agree though that the travel ban will probably look like a mistake: pointless at best, given that Omicon has already established itself here. And really damaging to SA.
Lockdown incoming, we have lost control of the virus yet again
No we haven’t. We still don’t know how serious omicron will be. If most cases are mild, there will be no issue. We anxiously wait on hard data, and must make do with anecdotes in the interim. Some good news today from SA. All is not lost.
Yes. Given the fact that most SA medics say this is a mild(er) variant, some early analysis suggest it’s a mild(er) variant and most patients are presenting with mild(er) symptoms, is there not a whiff of a chance that it is, er, a milder variant?
It's unlikely that the variant is itself inherently milder, just that immunity evasion is on a sliding scale, and a variant can more easily evade immunity enough to infect everyone again, without evading immunity sufficiently to make people seriously ill.
That was some stupid shit. The "brake test" was moronic but wasn't quite as black and white as suggested. Loved the Mercedes / Masi call where they protested about knowing nothing about it and Masi points out he told the guy personally.
But - and its a big but. Don't start moving around when you're handing the place over. Verstappen is going to get his arse kicked. Can we also talk about the repeated "racecraft" incidents including both Hamilton and Arse on the go slow?
Hamilton will win the title and deservedly so. But can we please avoid this shitbox race next year?
Max slammed the brakes on as he wanted Lewis to overtake before DRS detection point so he could re-overtake 2 seconds later. It shows what a lunatic he is he thought that would be an outcome which wouldn't generate a penalty.
What rule does that break? If it doesn't break any, that seems like clever tactics.
Leaving the track and cutting the corner seemed a bigger issue to me.
He was weaving unpredictably across the track and then braked sharply. There is absolutely no reason for Hamilton to run into him (risking a DNF which would have ended his championship challenge) other than being taken by surprise. You don’t brake test someone when you’ve been instructed to let them past,
I didn't realise he'd been instructed to let him past, I thought that Hamilton was just overtaking him when he did that, in which case it seems sensible.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
F1 is boring, just cars whizzing around in a circle. Also causes pollution, because the vehicles aren't electric.
So there!
Actually F1 has quite possibly been very good for the environment, not negative for it.
A lot of technological and efficiency advances have been developed for F1 vehicles that have then reached general vehicles as a result. Since there's only a few F1 vehicles but there's billions of general vehicles, improving efficiency in general vehicles more than makes up for any fuel consumed in F1.
That very much reminds me of the argument that Christianity has been a force for good because look at all the paintings, look at all the architecture. It's difficult to know what artistic works would have been made without religion "driving" it. Perhaps as much? Perhaps less? Perhaps more? Kind of difficult to quantify.
Not the same thing at all.
Christianity crowded out and put down every alternative. F1 hasn't done the same thing at all.
If F1 fans had murdered every other sport or motor initiative then it might be remotely comparable.
I have come around to the view that nationalism in inevitable; a state of affairs rooted deep in human nature. This insight came to me from living in other European countries; whilst they were outwardly progressive and enthusiastic about the European union, I eventually came to the view that they would never move beyond being a nation state. The only country that ever genuinely moved beyond nationalism for a brief period was the UK, it became aware of its mistake by 2016.
F1 is boring, just cars whizzing around in a circle. Also causes pollution, because the vehicles aren't electric.
So there!
Actually F1 has quite possibly been very good for the environment, not negative for it.
A lot of technological and efficiency advances have been developed for F1 vehicles that have then reached general vehicles as a result. Since there's only a few F1 vehicles but there's billions of general vehicles, improving efficiency in general vehicles more than makes up for any fuel consumed in F1.
That very much reminds me of the argument that Christianity has been a force for good because look at all the paintings, look at all the architecture. It's difficult to know what artistic works would have been made without religion "driving" it. Perhaps as much? Perhaps less? Perhaps more? Kind of difficult to quantify.
Not the same thing at all.
Christianity crowded out and put down every alternative. F1 hasn't done the same thing at all.
If F1 fans had murdered every other sport or motor initiative then it might be remotely comparable.
TSE might tell you that's Verstappen's ultimate goal
Lockdown incoming, we have lost control of the virus yet again
No we haven’t. We still don’t know how serious omicron will be. If most cases are mild, there will be no issue. We anxiously wait on hard data, and must make do with anecdotes in the interim. Some good news today from SA. All is not lost.
Yes. Given the fact that most SA medics say this is a mild(er) variant, some early analysis suggest it’s a mild(er) variant and most patients are presenting with mild(er) symptoms, is there not a whiff of a chance that it is, er, a milder variant?
It's unlikely that the variant is itself inherently milder, just that immunity evasion is on a sliding scale, and a variant can more easily evade immunity enough to infect everyone again, without evading immunity sufficiently to make people seriously ill.
Sounds very plausible, but is there much evidence that it’s equal or more virulent as Delta?
That was some stupid shit. The "brake test" was moronic but wasn't quite as black and white as suggested. Loved the Mercedes / Masi call where they protested about knowing nothing about it and Masi points out he told the guy personally.
But - and its a big but. Don't start moving around when you're handing the place over. Verstappen is going to get his arse kicked. Can we also talk about the repeated "racecraft" incidents including both Hamilton and Arse on the go slow?
Hamilton will win the title and deservedly so. But can we please avoid this shitbox race next year?
Max slammed the brakes on as he wanted Lewis to overtake before DRS detection point so he could re-overtake 2 seconds later. It shows what a lunatic he is he thought that would be an outcome which wouldn't generate a penalty.
What rule does that break? If it doesn't break any, that seems like clever tactics.
Leaving the track and cutting the corner seemed a bigger issue to me.
He was weaving unpredictably across the track and then braked sharply. There is absolutely no reason for Hamilton to run into him (risking a DNF which would have ended his championship challenge) other than being taken by surprise. You don’t brake test someone when you’ve been instructed to let them past,
I didn't realise he'd been instructed to let him past, I thought that Hamilton was just overtaking him when he did that, in which case it seems sensible.
In Verstappen’s (semi) defence*, for this particular event, it appears that race control instructed Red Bull to give up the place, and neglected to inform Mercedes. That seems to have contributed to the incident.
*which is not to say that his driving today wasn’t well beyond what’s acceptable.
That was some stupid shit. The "brake test" was moronic but wasn't quite as black and white as suggested. Loved the Mercedes / Masi call where they protested about knowing nothing about it and Masi points out he told the guy personally.
But - and its a big but. Don't start moving around when you're handing the place over. Verstappen is going to get his arse kicked. Can we also talk about the repeated "racecraft" incidents including both Hamilton and Arse on the go slow?
Hamilton will win the title and deservedly so. But can we please avoid this shitbox race next year?
Max slammed the brakes on as he wanted Lewis to overtake before DRS detection point so he could re-overtake 2 seconds later. It shows what a lunatic he is he thought that would be an outcome which wouldn't generate a penalty.
What rule does that break? If it doesn't break any, that seems like clever tactics.
Leaving the track and cutting the corner seemed a bigger issue to me.
He was weaving unpredictably across the track and then braked sharply. There is absolutely no reason for Hamilton to run into him (risking a DNF which would have ended his championship challenge) other than being taken by surprise. You don’t brake test someone when you’ve been instructed to let them past,
I didn't realise he'd been instructed to let him past, I thought that Hamilton was just overtaking him when he did that, in which case it seems sensible.
In Verstappen’s (semi) defence, for this particular event, it appears that race control instructed Red Bull to give up the place, and neglected to inform Mercedes. That seems to have contributed to the incident.
But race control were adamant they did inform Mercedes - although Mercedes claim otherwise, but then they're Horner with German accents.
That may be why Hamilton is also in front of the stewards.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
I have come around to the view that nationalism in inevitable; a state of affairs rooted deep in human nature. This insight came to me from living in other European countries; whilst they were outwardly progressive and enthusiastic about the European union, I eventually came to the view that they would never move beyond being a nation state. The only country that ever genuinely moved beyond nationalism for a brief period was the UK, it became aware of its mistake by 2016.
Read the Orwell link I posted below.
Nationalism is simply the familial/tribal loyalty moved to a larger arena.
Her history, it has moved up to counties (Wessex was a country once). Then national units. Then supra-national units.
Euro-nationalism is simply another example of this type of belief structure.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
Yes - I don't think they really want to invade anywhere, in the traditional sense. Just influence and compliant governments. Its not all that different to the antics of the US in the 20th Century. But after Iraq and Afghanistan , I doubt any more invasions are on the cards.
That was some stupid shit. The "brake test" was moronic but wasn't quite as black and white as suggested. Loved the Mercedes / Masi call where they protested about knowing nothing about it and Masi points out he told the guy personally.
But - and its a big but. Don't start moving around when you're handing the place over. Verstappen is going to get his arse kicked. Can we also talk about the repeated "racecraft" incidents including both Hamilton and Arse on the go slow?
Hamilton will win the title and deservedly so. But can we please avoid this shitbox race next year?
Max slammed the brakes on as he wanted Lewis to overtake before DRS detection point so he could re-overtake 2 seconds later. It shows what a lunatic he is he thought that would be an outcome which wouldn't generate a penalty.
What rule does that break? If it doesn't break any, that seems like clever tactics.
Leaving the track and cutting the corner seemed a bigger issue to me.
He was weaving unpredictably across the track and then braked sharply. There is absolutely no reason for Hamilton to run into him (risking a DNF which would have ended his championship challenge) other than being taken by surprise. You don’t brake test someone when you’ve been instructed to let them past,
I didn't realise he'd been instructed to let him past, I thought that Hamilton was just overtaking him when he did that, in which case it seems sensible.
In Verstappen’s (semi) defence*, for this particular event, it appears that race control instructed Red Bull to give up the place, and neglected to inform Mercedes. That seems to have contributed to the incident.
*which is not to say that his driving today wasn’t well beyond what’s acceptable.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Lockdown incoming, we have lost control of the virus yet again
No we haven’t. We still don’t know how serious omicron will be. If most cases are mild, there will be no issue. We anxiously wait on hard data, and must make do with anecdotes in the interim. Some good news today from SA. All is not lost.
Yes. Given the fact that most SA medics say this is a mild(er) variant, some early analysis suggest it’s a mild(er) variant and most patients are presenting with mild(er) symptoms, is there not a whiff of a chance that it is, er, a milder variant?
It's unlikely that the variant is itself inherently milder, just that immunity evasion is on a sliding scale, and a variant can more easily evade immunity enough to infect everyone again, without evading immunity sufficiently to make people seriously ill.
Sounds very plausible, but is there much evidence that it’s equal or more virulent as Delta?
Well, eventually you run out of any immune-naive populations and so it's both impossible to tell and moot, but it's a vital difference for countries like Germany to keep in mind, because they probably still have a decent number of immune-naive oldsters.
You can't tell from the South African figures because it's reckoned pretty much everyone caught it in previous waves. So we just don't know yet.
Simplest thing is to assume it's no more or less deadly in the immune-naive. No evidence to conclude anything else.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
Trouble is by invading Crimea he managed to unite Ukraine. Pro Russian politicians seem on the slide there. My guess is he wants some kind of guarantee about NATO membership being off the table or intervening in such a way that Ukraine is a failed state. Putin can't afford for Zelensky to succeed. He might also be testing the new German government.
That was some stupid shit. The "brake test" was moronic but wasn't quite as black and white as suggested. Loved the Mercedes / Masi call where they protested about knowing nothing about it and Masi points out he told the guy personally.
But - and its a big but. Don't start moving around when you're handing the place over. Verstappen is going to get his arse kicked. Can we also talk about the repeated "racecraft" incidents including both Hamilton and Arse on the go slow?
Hamilton will win the title and deservedly so. But can we please avoid this shitbox race next year?
Max slammed the brakes on as he wanted Lewis to overtake before DRS detection point so he could re-overtake 2 seconds later. It shows what a lunatic he is he thought that would be an outcome which wouldn't generate a penalty.
What rule does that break? If it doesn't break any, that seems like clever tactics.
Leaving the track and cutting the corner seemed a bigger issue to me.
He was weaving unpredictably across the track and then braked sharply. There is absolutely no reason for Hamilton to run into him (risking a DNF which would have ended his championship challenge) other than being taken by surprise. You don’t brake test someone when you’ve been instructed to let them past,
I didn't realise he'd been instructed to let him past, I thought that Hamilton was just overtaking him when he did that, in which case it seems sensible.
In Verstappen’s (semi) defence*, for this particular event, it appears that race control instructed Red Bull to give up the place, and neglected to inform Mercedes. That seems to have contributed to the incident.
*which is not to say that his driving today wasn’t well beyond what’s acceptable.
Masi told Mercedes.
He told them 2nd. Given the incident happened 54 seconds after Max's initial foul, the time taken to decide, then speak to Red Bull and hear their response, then speak to Merc, note remotely surprising the message had not reached Lewis.
I have come around to the view that nationalism in inevitable; a state of affairs rooted deep in human nature. This insight came to me from living in other European countries; whilst they were outwardly progressive and enthusiastic about the European union, I eventually came to the view that they would never move beyond being a nation state. The only country that ever genuinely moved beyond nationalism for a brief period was the UK, it became aware of its mistake by 2016.
Read the Orwell link I posted below.
Nationalism is simply the familial/tribal loyalty moved to a larger arena.
Her history, it has moved up to counties (Wessex was a country once). Then national units. Then supra-national units.
Euro-nationalism is simply another example of this type of belief structure.
I will do. But its just a conclusion that I came to myself. I used to be an internationalist but found that to be irreconcilable with my experience of people.
Euro nationalism may just turn out to be the most disastrous idea of the last hundred years.
He's been one of my favourite players for a while. So smooth, gifted and smiley. But also been dreadfully inconsistent and flaky. Slowed down, got a semblance of a safety game, and suddenly it's all come together. Only two players in Top 16 are under 30 now. Both the Chinese.
- New cases: 11,125 - Average: 10,041 (+1,181) - Positivity rate: 23.8% (-) - In hospital: 3,268 (+13) - In ICU: 278 (-5) - New deaths: 1 - Average: 24 (-)
Hospitalisations aren't as high or rising as quickly as I'd have feared given that positivity rate.
According to John Burns Murdoch, the FT stats/charts guy, the SA hospitalizations data is heavily updated in arrears, so it's hard to make statements in real-time about how fast it is going up.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Only because he *can't*
He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.
Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.
As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.
Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
Yes - I don't think they really want to invade anywhere, in the traditional sense. Just influence and compliant governments. Its not all that different to the antics of the US in the 20th Century. But after Iraq and Afghanistan , I doubt any more invasions are on the cards.
And Crimea.
And an average of 2000 have died every year for the last seven years fighting in the Donbas.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Not until after occupying the Baltic States, incorporating Belorussia, and completing the conquest of Ukraine. After completing those, then, sure, why wouldn't he?
I have come around to the view that nationalism in inevitable; a state of affairs rooted deep in human nature. This insight came to me from living in other European countries; whilst they were outwardly progressive and enthusiastic about the European union, I eventually came to the view that they would never move beyond being a nation state. The only country that ever genuinely moved beyond nationalism for a brief period was the UK, it became aware of its mistake by 2016.
Read the Orwell link I posted below.
Nationalism is simply the familial/tribal loyalty moved to a larger arena.
Her history, it has moved up to counties (Wessex was a country once). Then national units. Then supra-national units.
Euro-nationalism is simply another example of this type of belief structure.
I will do. But its just a conclusion that I came to myself. I used to be an internationalist but found that to be irreconcilable with my experience of people.
Euro nationalism may just turn out to be the most disastrous idea of the last hundred years.
There's nothing wrong with Euronationalism per se. My opinion is that it is trying to do the work of 300 years in 30 which is a problem.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Only because he *can't*
He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.
Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.
As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.
Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.
*NATO, EU etc etc.
You also have to see someone like Putin’s actions through the prism of what he fears might happen to him if he lost the confidence of the elites and hence his job. Clue: it might not involve a nice long retirement in a luxury dacha and the international speaking circuit. Which means you think that you have to be the strongest, loudest chest beating ape in the jungle to stay alive.
Honestly at this point Xi is probably of a similar mindset given the domestic enemies he’s created. Not an ideal situation for the rest of us.
Well I got my Moderna booster today (after having two Astras). No reaction so far. I didn't with the original shots either. Does that mean anything, or is it just luck?
"rapid herd immunity at minimal cost in morbidity and mortality...."
Fingers crossed.....
Just watched the video, it does look like good news, very transmissible, but very milled symptoms.
Clearly too soon to say for defiant, but the but the early indication are pointing that way.
I hope so. Does anyone think Dr Campbell is being too optimistic?
Well he's not a virologist as far as I am aware or even a Dr in the medical sense (correct me if I am wrong on that).
I think it's too early to say especially as serous illness and deaths take some days to reach with Covid.
South Africa has a young population (a bloody huge factor when it comes to Covid illness severity and death). Might not see the same result in other countries with older populations and colder climates.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Only because he *can't*
He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.
Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.
As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.
Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.
*NATO, EU etc etc.
Finland is such an interesting case. No-one has laid a finger on NATO territory since foundation. Finland isn't in it. The EU as a defence force is laughable. The fact that the EU was founded on both pan national ideals and at the same time indifferent about NATO membership may well prove its single biggest weakness. It seems blissfully unaware there are three sides in any regional conflict: Yours, the Others and the Neutrals. In any conflict involving NATO the EU will have countries on two of those three sides. You could not make it up.
if Russia did attack Finland? Not a clue. Nor has anyone else. But if I were a Finn I would notice that Ukraine has been promised everything except actual armed help.
Well I got my Moderna booster today (after having two Astras). No reaction so far. I didn't with the original shots either. Does that mean anything, or is it just luck?
The ideal Broom Broom little boy willie waving result would be boring Hamilton and boring Verstappen wiping each other out seriously enough for Broom Broom to be banned forever, so that the world would be a less boring place. Until then, could Broom Broom fans take their boring posts elsewhere, please?
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Only because he *can't*
He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.
Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.
As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.
Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.
*NATO, EU etc etc.
Finland is such an interesting case. No-one has laid a finger on NATO territory since foundation. Finland isn't in it. The EU as a defence force is laughable. The fact that the EU was founded on both pan national ideals and at the same time indifferent about NATO membership may well prove its single biggest weakness. It seems blissfully unaware there are three sides in any regional conflict: Yours, the Others and the Neutrals. In any conflict involving NATO the EU will have countries on two of those three sides. You could not make it up.
if Russia did attack Finland? Not a clue. Nor has anyone else. But if I were a Finn I would notice that Ukraine has been promised everything except actual armed help.
The EU is involved in the negative sense. In the case of Ukraine, Germany has been trying to hold Europe (and hence NATO) from providing any material help.
If Poland was invaded, then they would flip, which would mean a united NATO, full on, against Russia.
In the case of Finals, there are old, historical structures in place. The Americans, long ago in the Cold War, made it clear that Finland, if *attacked* would be defended.. and made part of the alliance system. So Russia was deterred by the threat of NATO appearing on the doorstep....
The ideal Broom Broom little boy willie waving result would be boring Hamilton and boring Verstappen wiping each other out seriously enough for Broom Broom to be banned forever, so that the world would be a less boring place. Until then, could Broom Broom fans take their boring posts elsewhere, please?
politicians who exploit nationalism? Who Wrap them themselves in flags? Wear nationalist glasses? Sounds like the Tory party to me.
Well now...
As Orwell notes, a nationalist sees behaviour from his own side (or allied sides, or sides he/she imagines are allies) as quite separate from the behaviour of his opponents.
Darling: So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshal Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.
Melchett: Filthy Hun weasels fighting their dirty underhand war!
Darling: And, fortunately, one of *our* spies–
Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes, risking life and limb for Blighty!
The ideal Broom Broom little boy willie waving result would be boring Hamilton and boring Verstappen wiping each other out seriously enough for Broom Broom to be banned forever, so that the world would be a less boring place. Until then, could Broom Broom fans take their boring posts elsewhere, please?
Harsh.
It is striking though that the end result is that our hero and anti hero go into the final round LEVEL ON POINTS, absolutely thrillingly and audience maximisingly. I mean, who here thinks TV wrestling is for real?
The ideal Broom Broom little boy willie waving result would be boring Hamilton and boring Verstappen wiping each other out seriously enough for Broom Broom to be banned forever, so that the world would be a less boring place. Until then, could Broom Broom fans take their boring posts elsewhere, please?
Harsh.
It is striking though that the end result is that our hero and anti hero go into the final round LEVEL ON POINTS, absolutely thrillingly and audience maximisingly. I mean, who here thinks TV wrestling is for real?
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Not until after occupying the Baltic States, incorporating Belorussia, and completing the conquest of Ukraine. After completing those, then, sure, why wouldn't he?
I wonder whether Western strategists are wondering how they can get Putin to turn his ire on Xi without threatening the West.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Not until after occupying the Baltic States, incorporating Belorussia, and completing the conquest of Ukraine. After completing those, then, sure, why wouldn't he?
I wonder whether Western strategists are wondering how they can get Putin to turn his ire on Xi without threatening the West.
I doubt it. He seems more interested in reclaiming lost land, and there ain’t much of that in the far east.
"rapid herd immunity at minimal cost in morbidity and mortality...."
Fingers crossed.....
Just watched the video, it does look like good news, very transmissible, but very milled symptoms.
Clearly too soon to say for defiant, but the but the early indication are pointing that way.
I hope so. Does anyone think Dr Campbell is being too optimistic?
Well he's not a virologist as far as I am aware or even a Dr in the medical sense (correct me if I am wrong on that).
I think it's too early to say especially as serous illness and deaths take some days to reach with Covid.
South Africa has a young population (a bloody huge factor when it comes to Covid illness severity and death). Might not see the same result in other countries with older populations and colder climates.
You must have to know a fair bit about medicine to get a doctorate in nursing.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Not until after occupying the Baltic States, incorporating Belorussia, and completing the conquest of Ukraine. After completing those, then, sure, why wouldn't he?
I wonder whether Western strategists are wondering how they can get Putin to turn his ire on Xi without threatening the West.
I doubt it. He seems more interested in reclaiming lost land, and there ain’t much of that in the far east.
On-topic, I'd prefer a really big voodoo poll rather than a small poll that has been weighted to within an inch of its life.
Weighting is bad, but voodoo polls are worse. If you were to have a perfectly random sample, then you wouldn't need any weighting, and increasing the sample size quickly has diminishing returns.
If Omicron really does spread like wildfire and it must have been around in largely unvaccinated South Africa for several weeks, wouldn't we be expecting an Italy style situation by now if if was really dangerous?
Also appears to have a shorter incubation period. I think if it was as serious as Delta, we'd have known about it by now. So far, it's looking like it's highly transmissible, but much milder than other variants. We do, of course, need more data, but so far the signs seem quite encouraging to me.
we defiantly still need more data, but I'm feeling more confidant in my cynical prediction that we will regret the travel ban from southern Africa, as we discover that omicron is less deadly but also gives a level of immunity to other variants!!!!
A few weeks ago a prominent German decarded that 'by the end of the winter, everybody will have been vaccinated, recovered or dead!'
I think that we can refine that now to 'Vaccinated, Omicroned, Recovered (from Delta) or Dead'
Vaccinated may be better than Omicroned, but Omicroned is better that than the last too.
The more people who get Omicron soon, the less will be left to get Delta, next week/month and therefor less overall death. OK not enough data to say this is definably correct, and I am more joking than anything else, but maybe we should be paying people with Omicron to come to the UK and socialize as much as possible?
OK. Though if having had Delta doesn't protect you from Omicron then it quite possibly doesn't work the other way round either.
Agree though that the travel ban will probably look like a mistake: pointless at best, given that Omicon has already established itself here. And really damaging to SA.
Probably a 'scariant' to keep the narrative alive. From Dr. Chris Martenson's talk it seems to have followed a parallel path of evolution to Delta. Most viruses mutate to become more infectious and less deadly, so I'm sure we'd have heard from SAGE/NERVTAG by now if it was more deadly than Delta (IFR 0.1%).
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Only because he *can't*
He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.
Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.
As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.
Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.
*NATO, EU etc etc.
Finland is such an interesting case. No-one has laid a finger on NATO territory since foundation. Finland isn't in it. The EU as a defence force is laughable. The fact that the EU was founded on both pan national ideals and at the same time indifferent about NATO membership may well prove its single biggest weakness. It seems blissfully unaware there are three sides in any regional conflict: Yours, the Others and the Neutrals. In any conflict involving NATO the EU will have countries on two of those three sides. You could not make it up.
if Russia did attack Finland? Not a clue. Nor has anyone else. But if I were a Finn I would notice that Ukraine has been promised everything except actual armed help.
Russians haven't done very well against Finland in the past.
"rapid herd immunity at minimal cost in morbidity and mortality...."
Fingers crossed.....
Just watched the video, it does look like good news, very transmissible, but very milled symptoms.
Clearly too soon to say for defiant, but the but the early indication are pointing that way.
I hope so. Does anyone think Dr Campbell is being too optimistic?
Well he's not a virologist as far as I am aware or even a Dr in the medical sense (correct me if I am wrong on that).
I think it's too early to say especially as serous illness and deaths take some days to reach with Covid.
South Africa has a young population (a bloody huge factor when it comes to Covid illness severity and death). Might not see the same result in other countries with older populations and colder climates.
You must have to know a fair bit about medicine to get a doctorate in nursing.
Nursing is a very different area from studying how viruses function. A doctorate in nursing certainly doesn't make you an expert in virology or epidemiology.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Not until after occupying the Baltic States, incorporating Belorussia, and completing the conquest of Ukraine. After completing those, then, sure, why wouldn't he?
I wonder whether Western strategists are wondering how they can get Putin to turn his ire on Xi without threatening the West.
I doubt it. He seems more interested in reclaiming lost land, and there ain’t much of that in the far east.
Plus he's not stupid.
The west offers some easy pickings. Xi does not.
If China was split into dozens of nation states, as Europe is, then it would present some easier pickings. Possible to divide, and play one country against another.
That said, I was interested to learn the other day that the population of NATO countries is over 900 million. We''re not as outnumbered by numberless Chinese hordes as you might think.
If Omicron really does spread like wildfire and it must have been around in largely unvaccinated South Africa for several weeks, wouldn't we be expecting an Italy style situation by now if if was really dangerous?
Also appears to have a shorter incubation period. I think if it was as serious as Delta, we'd have known about it by now. So far, it's looking like it's highly transmissible, but much milder than other variants. We do, of course, need more data, but so far the signs seem quite encouraging to me.
we defiantly still need more data, but I'm feeling more confidant in my cynical prediction that we will regret the travel ban from southern Africa, as we discover that omicron is less deadly but also gives a level of immunity to other variants!!!!
A few weeks ago a prominent German decarded that 'by the end of the winter, everybody will have been vaccinated, recovered or dead!'
I think that we can refine that now to 'Vaccinated, Omicroned, Recovered (from Delta) or Dead'
Vaccinated may be better than Omicroned, but Omicroned is better that than the last too.
The more people who get Omicron soon, the less will be left to get Delta, next week/month and therefor less overall death. OK not enough data to say this is definably correct, and I am more joking than anything else, but maybe we should be paying people with Omicron to come to the UK and socialize as much as possible?
OK. Though if having had Delta doesn't protect you from Omicron then it quite possibly doesn't work the other way round either.
Agree though that the travel ban will probably look like a mistake: pointless at best, given that Omicon has already established itself here. And really damaging to SA.
Probably a 'scariant' to keep the narrative alive. From Dr. Chris Martenson's talk it seems to have followed a parallel path of evolution to Delta. Most viruses mutate to become more infectious and less deadly, so I'm sure we'd have heard from SAGE/NERVTAG by now if it was more deadly than Delta (IFR 0.1%).
If Omicron really does spread like wildfire and it must have been around in largely unvaccinated South Africa for several weeks, wouldn't we be expecting an Italy style situation by now if if was really dangerous?
Also appears to have a shorter incubation period. I think if it was as serious as Delta, we'd have known about it by now. So far, it's looking like it's highly transmissible, but much milder than other variants. We do, of course, need more data, but so far the signs seem quite encouraging to me.
we defiantly still need more data, but I'm feeling more confidant in my cynical prediction that we will regret the travel ban from southern Africa, as we discover that omicron is less deadly but also gives a level of immunity to other variants!!!!
A few weeks ago a prominent German decarded that 'by the end of the winter, everybody will have been vaccinated, recovered or dead!'
I think that we can refine that now to 'Vaccinated, Omicroned, Recovered (from Delta) or Dead'
Vaccinated may be better than Omicroned, but Omicroned is better that than the last too.
The more people who get Omicron soon, the less will be left to get Delta, next week/month and therefor less overall death. OK not enough data to say this is definably correct, and I am more joking than anything else, but maybe we should be paying people with Omicron to come to the UK and socialize as much as possible?
OK. Though if having had Delta doesn't protect you from Omicron then it quite possibly doesn't work the other way round either.
Agree though that the travel ban will probably look like a mistake: pointless at best, given that Omicon has already established itself here. And really damaging to SA.
Probably a 'scariant' to keep the narrative alive. From Dr. Chris Martenson's talk it seems to have followed a parallel path of evolution to Delta. Most viruses mutate to become more infectious and less deadly, so I'm sure we'd have heard from SAGE/NERVTAG by now if it was more deadly than Delta (IFR 0.1%).
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Not until after occupying the Baltic States, incorporating Belorussia, and completing the conquest of Ukraine. After completing those, then, sure, why wouldn't he?
Yet Lukashenko has been begging to have Belarus reincorporated into Mother Russia since he assumed power. The closest Putin has given him is the mini-USSR “the Union State” which has been moribund pretty much since it was established.
Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
I think that’s Panglossian, Nick. It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory. It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
Only because he *can't*
He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.
Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.
As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.
Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.
*NATO, EU etc etc.
Finland is such an interesting case. No-one has laid a finger on NATO territory since foundation. Finland isn't in it. The EU as a defence force is laughable. The fact that the EU was founded on both pan national ideals and at the same time indifferent about NATO membership may well prove its single biggest weakness. It seems blissfully unaware there are three sides in any regional conflict: Yours, the Others and the Neutrals. In any conflict involving NATO the EU will have countries on two of those three sides. You could not make it up.
if Russia did attack Finland? Not a clue. Nor has anyone else. But if I were a Finn I would notice that Ukraine has been promised everything except actual armed help.
Russians haven't done very well against Finland in the past.
Though I did read recently that the Winter War gave Stalin/the SU just enough of a wake up call to stop Barbarossa being the kicking in of the door that brought down the whole rotting edifice that Hitler expected it to be. Silver linings and all that.
Comments
But enough about the chess, what happened in the motor car racing thingy?
(Edit - I know TSE isn't a restauranter, I'm just imagining scenarios where TSE gets his revenge by buying Horner's favourite restaurant and ordering all pizza be served with pineapple and arsenic.)
https://twitter.com/USEmbassyAthens/status/1466822690870865923
Another article mentioned a huge number of helicopters and materiel.
Turns out Alexa is shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFH0JRSFjRU
A few weeks ago a prominent German decarded that 'by the end of the winter, everybody will have been vaccinated, recovered or dead!'
I think that we can refine that now to 'Vaccinated, Omicroned, Recovered (from Delta) or Dead'
Vaccinated may be better than Omicroned, but Omicroned is better that than the last too.
The more people who get Omicron soon, the less will be left to get Delta, next week/month and therefor less overall death. OK not enough data to say this is definably correct, and I am more joking than anything else, but maybe we should be paying people with Omicron to come to the UK and socialize as much as possible?
Cases by specimen date
The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.
At the very least, BIden is clearly massively beefing up the US's presence in and around the Black Sea area.
Agree though that the travel ban will probably look like a mistake: pointless at best, given that Omicon has already established itself here. And really damaging to SA.
- Cases rising nationally, with the falls in the older groups levelling off.
- Admissions have pretty much stopped falling.
- Deaths still falling
Christianity crowded out and put down every alternative. F1 hasn't done the same thing at all.
If F1 fans had murdered every other sport or motor initiative then it might be remotely comparable.
- New cases: 11,125
- Average: 10,041 (+1,181)
- Positivity rate: 23.8% (-)
- In hospital: 3,268 (+13)
- In ICU: 278 (-5)
- New deaths: 1
- Average: 24 (-)
A worthy winner given who he's beaten on the way.
*which is not to say that his driving today wasn’t well beyond what’s acceptable.
That may be why Hamilton is also in front of the stewards.
It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory.
It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
Nationalism is simply the familial/tribal loyalty moved to a larger arena.
Her history, it has moved up to counties (Wessex was a country once). Then national units. Then supra-national units.
Euro-nationalism is simply another example of this type of belief structure.
You can't tell from the South African figures because it's reckoned pretty much everyone caught it in previous waves. So we just don't know yet.
Simplest thing is to assume it's no more or less deadly in the immune-naive. No evidence to conclude anything else.
https://twitter.com/RemyBuisine/status/1467540301392887808?t=SV9ZDyH1WShisXdkuo5Cxw&s=19
Euro nationalism may just turn out to be the most disastrous idea of the last hundred years.
Only two players in Top 16 are under 30 now. Both the Chinese.
He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.
Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.
As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.
Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.
*NATO, EU etc etc.
And an average of 2000 have died every year for the last seven years fighting in the Donbas.
https://metro.co.uk/2021/12/05/bomb-squad-called-after-doctors-find-wwii-shell-stuck-up-mans-bum-15710207/
Honestly at this point Xi is probably of a similar mindset given the domestic enemies he’s created. Not an ideal situation for the rest of us.
Sounds like the Tory party to me.
I think it's too early to say especially as serous illness and deaths take some days to reach with Covid.
South Africa has a young population (a bloody huge factor when it comes to Covid illness severity and death). Might not see the same result in other countries with older populations and colder climates.
if Russia did attack Finland? Not a clue. Nor has anyone else. But if I were a Finn I would notice that Ukraine has been promised everything except actual armed help.
If Poland was invaded, then they would flip, which would mean a united NATO, full on, against Russia.
In the case of Finals, there are old, historical structures in place. The Americans, long ago in the Cold War, made it clear that Finland, if *attacked* would be defended.. and made part of the alliance system. So Russia was deterred by the threat of NATO appearing on the doorstep....
Darling: So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshal Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.
Melchett: Filthy Hun weasels fighting their dirty underhand war!
Darling: And, fortunately, one of *our* spies–
Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes, risking life and limb for Blighty!
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1467610828555882506
It is striking though that the end result is that our hero and anti hero go into the final round LEVEL ON POINTS, absolutely thrillingly and audience maximisingly. I mean, who here thinks TV wrestling is for real?
OUTSIDE, NOW!!!
The west offers some easy pickings. Xi does not.
The BioNTech boss hasn't taken his own product yet
https://www.bitchute.com/video/XXOaBwXSAbjK/
He seems sensible to me. I assume he decided that personally the risk exceeded the benefit.
That said, I was interested to learn the other day that the population of NATO countries is over 900 million. We''re not as outnumbered by numberless Chinese hordes as you might think.
But it is in the guardian…
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-pfizer-ceovaccine-idUSL1N2PD1UX
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