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The poll finding that should rattle Downing Street – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning fellow pb readers and commentators. Cold this morning. My app suggests just below freezing, but thee doesn't appear to be any frost on neighbouring roofs, etc.

    Still plenty of snow and slush, frozen hard, out here.
    Mrs C has a zoom booked with her brother Oop North this afternoon. Rather wondering what we'll be able to see though his windows..... we usually get a glimpse or two.

    The new variation of the virus is concerning; had a very positive conversation with Younger Son yesterday morning about prospects for his and his family's forthcoming visit. Now.........
  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Yes ... and no.

    If Pfizer are correct that they can develop a vaccine in 100 days then every week really does count. The more this can be delayed the fewer people will die and the less the strain on public health.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    kamski said:

    Does anyone know when the Oxford Principle trial of ivermectin is going to give any results?

    If????
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    kamski said:

    Does anyone know when the Oxford Principle trial of ivermectin is going to give any results?

    They didn’t crunch their data properly, so it left them looking very sheepish.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    In any event, I will do my LFT this morning, and head off to a carol service in Ambleside.
    As a vaxxed and recently recovered individual, I don’t think I pose much of a threat to anyone right at the moment.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 489
    edited November 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on the new variant:
    https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1464599574090289154

    The point about T-cells is well made. While we don’t know anywhere near as much about their interactions with the virus (they’re rather more difficult to study in the lab than antibodies), we do know that their recognition of the spike protein is much more comprehensive, and so way more difficult to evade.

    Thanks for this.

    Do you know, or have you seen from reputable sources (emphasis), any early indicators of whether the 'traditional' vaccine method (AZ) or the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna) might work better against this particular mutation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    edited November 2021
    Nigelb said:

    In any event, I will do my LFT this morning, and head off to a carol service in Ambleside.
    As a vaxxed and recently recovered individual, I don’t think I pose much of a threat to anyone right at the moment.

    At the main church? Fabulous organ they’ve got there. Also very historic - one of the earliest experimental tubular pneumatic actions, and one of the few not to have been electrified.

    Edit - on checking, it has recently been electrified. Understandable but also regrettable. There’s an organ in Stafford undergoing the same process. Soon there will be few examples left (Cannock being one, ironically).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,762
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Agreed. It makes sense to hold traffic from known areas of the new infection, until you can study it and understand it more.

    Meanwhile, keep the vaccines running as quickly as possible, because they are the best way out from where we are now. Everyone needs to check on recalcitrant parents and vulnerable friends, make sure they’re getting boosters. Everyone is going to get one form or another of Covid at some point.
  • Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Agreed. It makes sense to hold traffic from known areas of the new infection, until you can study it and understand it more.

    Meanwhile, keep the vaccines running as quickly as possible, because they are the best way out from where we are now. Everyone needs to check on recalcitrant parents and vulnerable friends, make sure they’re getting boosters. Everyone is going to get one form or another of Covid at some point.
    And everyone do their bit to help slow the virus down for now.

    Wash hands
    Keep distance
    Wear a mask

    Yep, that last bit. Wear a mask.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Agreed. It makes sense to hold traffic from known areas of the new infection, until you can study it and understand it more.

    Meanwhile, keep the vaccines running as quickly as possible, because they are the best way out from where we are now. Everyone needs to check on recalcitrant parents and vulnerable friends, make sure they’re getting boosters. Everyone is going to get one form or another of Covid at some point.
    There are one or two traders locally, one of them a ladies hairdresser who are anti-wax. A couple of weeks ago there was a semi-serious discussion in the pub about whitewashing their windows.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    Heathener said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Yes ... and no.

    If Pfizer are correct that they can develop a vaccine in 100 days then every week really does count. The more this can be delayed the fewer people will die and the less the strain on public health.
    They aren’t going to produce sufficient bulk vaccine for much longer than that.
    If it’s really as infectious as suggested, travel bans without other larger interventions will make very little difference after a couple of weeks.

    And by then, we should have a far better idea if more costly interventions are needed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Agreed. It makes sense to hold traffic from known areas of the new infection, until you can study it and understand it more.

    Meanwhile, keep the vaccines running as quickly as possible, because they are the best way out from where we are now. Everyone needs to check on recalcitrant parents and vulnerable friends, make sure they’re getting boosters. Everyone is going to get one form or another of Covid at some point.
    There are one or two traders locally, one of them a ladies hairdresser who are anti-wax. A couple of weeks ago there was a semi-serious discussion in the pub about whitewashing their windows.
    I take it she is an anti-South American employer - she doesn’t do Brazilians?
  • ydoethur said:

    On face coverings, here is the key phrase:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own#exempt

    If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:

    any written evidence of this
    an exemption card
    This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.

    However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.

    Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.


    So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.

    As a vulnerable disabled person I challenge people on public transport who aren't wearing masks. I do it politely at first (they might be exempt) but if they're just been obdurate or freedom loving (i.e. self-centred) I give them a piece of my mind.

    Lots of you won't like it that I do but I'm afraid I'm not a self-centred tory. I think about other people. If you don't have a bloody good reason for not wearing a mask you should bloody well wear one until we've got this thing beat. Which we haven't yet.

    And, yes, despite being disabled and vulnerable I DO wear a mask.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In any event, I will do my LFT this morning, and head off to a carol service in Ambleside.
    As a vaxxed and recently recovered individual, I don’t think I pose much of a threat to anyone right at the moment.

    At the main church? Fabulous organ they’ve got there. Also very historic - one of the earliest experimental tubular pneumatic actions, and one of the few not to have been electrified.

    Edit - on checking, it has recently been electrified. Understandable but also regrettable. There’s an organ in Stafford undergoing the same process. Soon there will be few examples left (Cannock being one, ironically).
    St Mary’s.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,911
    edited November 2021
    ydoethur said:

    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
    It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.

    On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
    Actually from 1931-35 the PM’s party had 50 seats and the Tories 460.

    (Yes, I know, technicalities and anyway it was the same PM, but still.)
    National Labour won 13 seats in 1931.
    That wasn’t a party until 1932. They presented themselves as a Labour movement just outside the mainstream of the Labour Party (which had of course expelled them).

    That wasn’t actually terribly unusual in the 1920s where you had several Labour factions with separate organisations whose candidates took the Labour whip.
    Indeed but the reality was that Macdonald could only count on a dozen supporters - the rest (Labour, ILP etc all sat on the Opposition benches.

    More interesting and I think 1920s/30s politics formed your doctoral thesis, is whether McDonald exercised any real influence on policy from 1931-35? Perhaps on India and disarmament?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    edited November 2021
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    On face coverings, here is the key phrase:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own#exempt

    If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:

    any written evidence of this
    an exemption card
    This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.

    However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.

    Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.


    So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.

    As a vulnerable disabled person I challenge people on public transport who aren't wearing masks. I do it politely at first (they might be exempt) but if they're just been obdurate or freedom loving (i.e. self-centred) I give them a piece of my mind.

    Lots of you won't like it that I do but I'm afraid I'm not a self-centred tory. I think about other people. If you don't have a bloody good reason for not wearing a mask you should bloody well wear one until we've got this thing beat. Which we haven't yet.

    And, yes, despite being disabled and vulnerable I DO wear a mask.
    And in doing so, whatever your motives you are potentially committing an offence. You cannot as a private citizen demand to know somebody’s exemption status. And you certainly cannot lecture them on it. That is a breach of the peace, and it has also caused a great many problems for those who are exempt, to the extent that some have been afraid to leave their homes.

    If you were an employee of the company you are entitled to ask them to wear a mask, but not entitled to demand proof of exemption if they refuse it. Again, if people do they are committing an offence.

    Whether that’s a good law or not, it is the law. I would advise you to follow it. And if you’re really alarmed, for your own protection buy a proper mask with a filter that not only protects others but protects you as well.
  • By the way this fascinating scenario is really looming:

    SNP support for Labour ... in return for indyref2.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    edited November 2021
    Heathener said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on the new variant:
    https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1464599574090289154

    The point about T-cells is well made. While we don’t know anywhere near as much about their interactions with the virus (they’re rather more difficult to study in the lab than antibodies), we do know that their recognition of the spike protein is much more comprehensive, and so way more difficult to evade.

    Thanks for this.

    Do you know, or have you seen from reputable sources (emphasis), any early indicators of whether the 'traditional' vaccine method (AZ) or the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna) might work better against this particular mutation?
    No idea.
    But AZN, of course, ran a trial in S Africa, so they will be able to follow up the trial cohort and get detailed info. Will take some time though.

    The AZN antibody cocktail does look as though it will be more effective than the Regeneron one, which the new variant looks as though it might evade. That would take some time to produce in bulk.
    There’s also the new Pfizer pill, which won’t be affected by variations in the spike protein.

    In terms of protection, I’d guess vaccination, plus prior infection, plus booster would make you extremely unlikely to get severe disease, and fairly likely not to get it at all. That, though is a guess.
  • I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    edited November 2021
    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
    It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.

    On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
    Actually from 1931-35 the PM’s party had 50 seats and the Tories 460.

    (Yes, I know, technicalities and anyway it was the same PM, but still.)
    National Labour won 13 seats in 1931.
    That wasn’t a party until 1932. They presented themselves as a Labour movement just outside the mainstream of the Labour Party (which had of course expelled them).

    That wasn’t actually terribly unusual in the 1920s where you had several Labour factions with separate organisations whose candidates took the Labour whip.
    Indeed but the reality was that Macdonald could only count on a dozen supporters - the rest (Labour, ILP etc all sat on the Opposition benches.

    More interesting and I think 1920s/30s politics formed your doctoral thesis, is whether McDonald exercised any real influence on policy from 1931-35? Perhaps on India and disarmament?
    Depends when you’re asking about. At the start, yes, particularly on India. At the end, no, because he was suffering from the early stages of some form of dementia (I forget which one) and had increasingly become a cipher for Baldwin and especially Chamberlain.

    He didn’t have a lot of direct control over the domestic agenda as Chamberlain and Baldwin ran that between them. And rearmament didn’t really become a thing until he had more or less faded from the scene.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Agreed. It makes sense to hold traffic from known areas of the new infection, until you can study it and understand it more.

    Meanwhile, keep the vaccines running as quickly as possible, because they are the best way out from where we are now. Everyone needs to check on recalcitrant parents and vulnerable friends, make sure they’re getting boosters. Everyone is going to get one form or another of Covid at some point.
    And everyone do their bit to help slow the virus down for now.

    Wash hands
    Keep distance
    Wear a mask

    Yep, that last bit. Wear a mask.
    That you are still a Sing Happy Birthday Twice person says quite a lot
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Good luck if one of them complains to the police, because you will need it. You could get a fairly stiff fine for that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    Heathener said:

    By the way this fascinating scenario is really looming:

    SNP support for Labour ... in return for indyref2.

    Since the polls suggest that the Scots will again vote No (but thanks for asking) what's to be lost? The SNP appears to be, generally speaking, a Social Democratic Party whose views would fit quite well with those of the current Labour leadership on everyone except Scottish independence.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    On face coverings, here is the key phrase:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own#exempt

    If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:

    any written evidence of this
    an exemption card
    This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.

    However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.

    Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.


    So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.

    As a vulnerable disabled person I challenge people on public transport who aren't wearing masks. I do it politely at first (they might be exempt) but if they're just been obdurate or freedom loving (i.e. self-centred) I give them a piece of my mind.

    Lots of you won't like it that I do but I'm afraid I'm not a self-centred tory. I think about other people. If you don't have a bloody good reason for not wearing a mask you should bloody well wear one until we've got this thing beat. Which we haven't yet.

    And, yes, despite being disabled and vulnerable I DO wear a mask.
    And in doing so, whatever your motives you are potentially committing an offence. You cannot as a private citizen demand to know somebody’s exemption status. And you certainly cannot lecture them on it. That is a breach of the peace, and it has also caused a great many problems for those who are exempt, to the extent that some have been afraid to leave their homes.

    If you were an employee of the company you are entitled to ask them to wear a mask, but not entitled to demand proof of exemption if they refuse it. Again, if people do they are committing an offence.

    Whether that’s a good law or not, it is the law. I would advise you to follow it. And if you’re really alarmed, for your own protection buy a proper mask with a filter that not only protects others but protects you as well.
    I think I agree with both of you. In any environment where there is no choice for vulnerable people (food shopping, public transport, hospitals etc) then wearing a mask should be a social norm IF evidence supports wearing them.

    My frustration lies in the imposition of measures in other stuff. A friend recently challenged me on not demanding LFTs before a social gathering I was hosting. I told her the most effective thing would be not to meet with us if she was concerned about catching COVID, which rather shocked her - turns out she more interested in imposing her view on us, rather than actual concern for herself.

    The same goes for a vulnerable person who has campaigned to stop people like me going into the office - even though there is no obligation for him to go in. Claims the peer pressure is discriminatory, and that we are putting him at risk by increasing community transmission.

    I'm worried that this kind of attitude will become pervasive and we'll never really return to normal.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604
    edited November 2021
    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Don't off topic stuff, will piss OGH off (particularly this early).

    @whoever offtopiced Heathener.
  • Heathener said:

    It's quite interesting to take another look at the opinion poll graphs and tables, for example here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I don't think even the most diehard tories on here can deny that in the space of six months the Conservatives have lost a double digit lead. The two main parties are now statistically, or rather psephologically, neck and neck.

    Were that to be repeated it would almost certainly lead to a Labour coalition government but that's not really the issue right now. We're 2 years and 5 months away from a General Election. Johnson would not go early on these polls.

    But is this just the usual mid-term blues that is perfectly normal for governing parties? It may be. Tories will hope so. Some may airily dismiss it as such, which suits me fine. The more arrogant they are the better for the opposition parties.

    Because they 'ought' to be in no doubt whatsoever that they have contrived to lose an enormous amount of public trust. Mike's stat from the Opinium poll is highly instructive in this regard.

    My own take, which I admit is also my wishful thinking but based on a long time of looking at these things, is that the 12 years of Conservative rule is now on the fade. We will see a change of administration in 2024.

    The next two years will not be pretty for the Conservatives.

    Your last sentence is the key one.

    If the government can hold their deficit to 0-2 points midterm, they're doing very well. (Though they need about C+3 to stay in office next time and C+5 to be able to exercise power.)

    Their last bounce kicked in when the vaccination programme started so well. Is there anything on the horizon like that? The boost to real terms pay seems to have fizzled out, and the NI rise hasn't hit payslips yet.

    What sort of midterm deficit would make the Bufton Tuftons panic?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    On face coverings, here is the key phrase:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own#exempt

    If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:

    any written evidence of this
    an exemption card
    This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.

    However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.

    Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.


    So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.

    As a vulnerable disabled person I challenge people on public transport who aren't wearing masks. I do it politely at first (they might be exempt) but if they're just been obdurate or freedom loving (i.e. self-centred) I give them a piece of my mind.

    Lots of you won't like it that I do but I'm afraid I'm not a self-centred tory. I think about other people. If you don't have a bloody good reason for not wearing a mask you should bloody well wear one until we've got this thing beat. Which we haven't yet.

    And, yes, despite being disabled and vulnerable I DO wear a mask.
    And in doing so, whatever your motives you are potentially committing an offence. You cannot as a private citizen demand to know somebody’s exemption status. And you certainly cannot lecture them on it. That is a breach of the peace, and it has also caused a great many problems for those who are exempt, to the extent that some have been afraid to leave their homes.

    If you were an employee of the company you are entitled to ask them to wear a mask, but not entitled to demand proof of exemption if they refuse it. Again, if people do they are committing an offence.

    Whether that’s a good law or not, it is the law. I would advise you to follow it. And if you’re really alarmed, for your own protection buy a proper mask with a filter that not only protects others but protects you as well.
    I think I agree with both of you. In any environment where there is no choice for vulnerable people (food shopping, public transport, hospitals etc) then wearing a mask should be a social norm IF evidence supports wearing them.

    My frustration lies in the imposition of measures in other stuff. A friend recently challenged me on not demanding LFTs before a social gathering I was hosting. I told her the most effective thing would be not to meet with us if she was concerned about catching COVID, which rather shocked her - turns out she more interested in imposing her view on us, rather than actual concern for herself.

    The same goes for a vulnerable person who has campaigned to stop people like me going into the office - even though there is no obligation for him to go in. Claims the peer pressure is discriminatory, and that we are putting him at risk by increasing community transmission.

    I'm worried that this kind of attitude will become pervasive and we'll never really return to normal.
    As one who is concerned with running and managing u3a Groups, this is, as they say, making me furiously to think!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Just been out to photograph the icicles dangling from my gutters - some up to six inches long. Now the door won't shut properly I think due to the cold acting on the hinges, so I've had to bolt it rather than lock it.

    Must be winter anyway, I'm making myself some porridge.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604

    Heathener said:

    By the way this fascinating scenario is really looming:

    SNP support for Labour ... in return for indyref2.

    Since the polls suggest that the Scots will again vote No (but thanks for asking) what's to be lost? The SNP appears to be, generally speaking, a Social Democratic Party whose views would fit quite well with those of the current Labour leadership on everyone except Scottish independence.
    The argument is that the SNP would be seriously harmed were they to refuse a coalition with Labour and put the Tories back in power.

    I think this is wrong. The SNP have the self-confidence and conviction to ride that wave, and Labour would be damaged even further in Scotland if they refused a ref. They'd get UK wide blame for putting the Tories back in, too.

    People in England simply don't care either way on SINDY, and Sturgeon knows it. It would be her swansong too, perhaps, and she'd go down in history as a political martyr for indy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

    The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129

    They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.

    The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
    Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
    Agreed. It makes sense to hold traffic from known areas of the new infection, until you can study it and understand it more.

    Meanwhile, keep the vaccines running as quickly as possible, because they are the best way out from where we are now. Everyone needs to check on recalcitrant parents and vulnerable friends, make sure they’re getting boosters. Everyone is going to get one form or another of Covid at some point.
    And everyone do their bit to help slow the virus down for now.

    Wash hands
    Keep distance
    Wear a mask

    Yep, that last bit. Wear a mask.
    That you are still a Sing Happy Birthday Twice person says quite a lot
    That's funny, because I always associate that phrase with Boris Johnson telling us washing our hands was all we needed to do and everything would be fine. Soon before he nearly died of COVID-19.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,251
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Good luck if one of them complains to the police, because you will need it. You could get a fairly stiff fine for that.

    the police have wide discretionary powers in enforcing a 'breach of the peace', which can actually amount to almost any threat of harm in their subjective view. There are lots of things that you can do that potentially fall within that category.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Heathener said:

    It's quite interesting to take another look at the opinion poll graphs and tables, for example here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I don't think even the most diehard tories on here can deny that in the space of six months the Conservatives have lost a double digit lead. The two main parties are now statistically, or rather psephologically, neck and neck.

    Were that to be repeated it would almost certainly lead to a Labour coalition government but that's not really the issue right now. We're 2 years and 5 months away from a General Election. Johnson would not go early on these polls.

    But is this just the usual mid-term blues that is perfectly normal for governing parties? It may be. Tories will hope so. Some may airily dismiss it as such, which suits me fine. The more arrogant they are the better for the opposition parties.

    Because they 'ought' to be in no doubt whatsoever that they have contrived to lose an enormous amount of public trust. Mike's stat from the Opinium poll is highly instructive in this regard.

    My own take, which I admit is also my wishful thinking but based on a long time of looking at these things, is that the 12 years of Conservative rule is now on the fade. We will see a change of administration in 2024.

    The next two years will not be pretty for the Conservatives.

    Your last sentence is the key one.

    If the government can hold their deficit to 0-2 points midterm, they're doing very well. (Though they need about C+3 to stay in office next time and C+5 to be able to exercise power.)

    Their last bounce kicked in when the vaccination programme started so well. Is there anything on the horizon like that? The boost to real terms pay seems to have fizzled out, and the NI rise hasn't hit payslips yet.

    What sort of midterm deficit would make the Bufton Tuftons panic?
    If we stay unlocked - mask wearing aside - and Europe continues to implode that may help them a bit.
  • Good morning, everyone

    Mr. Doethur, surprised the heating hasn't improved that, although cold can have dramatic effects on metal. During one of the heavy winters a decade or so ago the side gate wouldn't shut properly because the metal had shrunk so much.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    darkage said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Good luck if one of them complains to the police, because you will need it. You could get a fairly stiff fine for that.

    the police have wide discretionary powers in enforcing a 'breach of the peace', which can actually amount to almost any threat of harm in their subjective view. There are lots of things that you can do that potentially fall within that category.

    Yes, but abusing somebody for not wearing a mask because they have declined to provide proof of exemption isn't even marginal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Good morning, everyone

    Mr. Doethur, surprised the heating hasn't improved that, although cold can have dramatic effects on metal. During one of the heavy winters a decade or so ago the side gate wouldn't shut properly because the metal had shrunk so much.

    It's a door to an unheated or rather semi heated conservatory.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    edited November 2021
    Eabhal wrote:
    People in England simply don't care either way on SINDY, and Sturgeon knows it. It would be her swansong too, perhaps, and she'd go down in history as a political martyr for indy.

    Which gave me the thought that when people in England have a view on Scottish independence; it's usually something like 'Pity, but if they want to, so be it!'
  • ydoethur said:

    On face coverings, here is the key phrase:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own#exempt

    If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:

    any written evidence of this
    an exemption card
    This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.

    However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.

    Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.


    So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.

    I will declare myself exempt due to CS syndrome - (common sense)
  • Just realised there's a small chance Omicron might cause cancellations of a race or two... they're scheduled for one and two weeks from now.

    Also, Hamilton missed the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix due to COVID-19. That made zero difference the title and gave us a fantastic (and highly profitable) race, but if one of the protagonists gets infected and the other doesn't then that's almost a game over moment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    ydoethur said:

    On face coverings, here is the key phrase:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own#exempt

    If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:

    any written evidence of this
    an exemption card
    This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.

    However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.

    Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.


    So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.

    I will declare myself exempt due to CS syndrome - (common sense)
    It's even more labyrinthine than that. All of my pupils would be exempt while I am teaching them if masks came back in classrooms (which hopefully they won't) as I suffer from moderate hearing loss and rely on lip reading in noisy environments. But if they were being taught by the young NQT with excellent hearing next door, they'd have to put them back on.

    The whole thing's a mess frankly.
  • Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Just buy yourself a proper mask and leave everyone else alone
    My husband and I tested positive for COVID last night after nearly 2 years of following the rules and doing the right thing. That same day we took my very vulnerable mother out for a drive in the car. This morning I'm beginning to find anti mask rhetoric just a bit annoying.
  • Mr. Doethur, ah conservatories. Freezing in winter, boiling in summer.
  • dixiedean said:

    Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it.
    We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.

    A friend living with a husband and two children, all down with it simultaneously, probably wouldn't agree. Another says that the situation at her (sick) daughter's school is insane, with staff and pupils both going down like ninepins - little serious education is taking place because of lack of continuity.
    so its not really the illness bu the over reaction to it that disrupts the education.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Just realised there's a small chance Omicron might cause cancellations of a race or two... they're scheduled for one and two weeks from now.

    Also, Hamilton missed the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix due to COVID-19. That made zero difference the title and gave us a fantastic (and highly profitable) race, but if one of the protagonists gets infected and the other doesn't then that's almost a game over moment.

    Given the animus between Surrlewis and Vercrashen, if one of them got it they'd probably deliberately breathe over the other to try and infect them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Mr. Doethur, ah conservatories. Freezing in winter, boiling in summer.

    Save a fortune on heating in spring and autumn...
  • Mr. Doethur, aye. I wouldn't be surprised if Wolff and Horner are trying to find infected people to try and take out the opposition*.

    *For the benefit of any clods, obviously I'm jesting. They're drama queens, not pestilential bringers of plague.
  • Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Don't off topic stuff, will piss OGH off (particularly this early).

    @whoever offtopiced Heathener.
    Can somebody explain why there is a off topic button but the moderator does not like people using it to errr report off topic stuff.? Here is an idea PB , dont have one if you dont actually want people to report off topic stuff .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Mr. Doethur, aye. I wouldn't be surprised if Wolff and Horner are trying to find infected people to try and take out the opposition*.

    *For the benefit of any clods, obviously I'm jesting. They're drama queens, not pestilential bringers of plague.

    Can I be Shakespearean and suggest a plague on both their houses?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Don't off topic stuff, will piss OGH off (particularly this early).

    @whoever offtopiced Heathener.
    Can somebody explain why there is a off topic button but the moderator does not like people using it to errr report off topic stuff.? Here is an idea PB , dont have one if you dont actually want people to report off topic stuff .
    PB doesn't manage the technical side. Vanilla does. Usually ineptly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,690
    edited November 2021
    Mr. Doethur, sadly I think it's technically impossible for Bottas to now slip through the middle as Raikkonen did in 2007.

    Also, both infected for both races hands Verstappen the title, so he'd probably take that.

    Edited extra bit: obviously assuming there were no or minor symptoms.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,855
    edited November 2021
    Stereodog said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Just buy yourself a proper mask and leave everyone else alone
    My husband and I tested positive for COVID last night after nearly 2 years of following the rules and doing the right thing. That same day we took my very vulnerable mother out for a drive in the car. This morning I'm beginning to find anti mask rhetoric just a bit annoying.
    Are you? i am finding it annoying that they are being imposed given they have done nothing to reduce the spread of covid for 18 months and as covid is going to be here for 18 years I dont want society to be trussed up in the horrible things forever
  • ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Don't off topic stuff, will piss OGH off (particularly this early).

    @whoever offtopiced Heathener.
    Can somebody explain why there is a off topic button but the moderator does not like people using it to errr report off topic stuff.? Here is an idea PB , dont have one if you dont actually want people to report off topic stuff .
    PB doesn't manage the technical side. Vanilla does. Usually ineptly.
    I dont think that is widely known so its not surprising people use the off topic button thinking they are doing what PB want.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,116
    edited November 2021
    If Omicron is as transmissible as suggested, BUT is also not particularly harmful (even possibly less so than existing variants) then it is going to cause big problems in the U.K. because of the ongoing crude way we calculate hospitalisations and deaths.

    There will be a huge spike in positive tests which will automatically lead to huge spikes in reported hospitalisations and deaths (every heart attack, stroke, cancer victim etc etc will be a Covid case). The nuance isn’t there is the reported stats and most will conclude that a struggling NHS is being overwhelmed by Covid. And then restrictions which have no basis in reality would follow.
  • Good points, Mr. Alex. The ridiculous way death stats are compiled here (my mother, unprompted, complained about this regarding a friend of hers recently, whose own mother passed away from something else entirely) will absolutely distort the picture and give grist to the lockdown fetishists' mill.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,762

    Just realised there's a small chance Omicron might cause cancellations of a race or two... they're scheduled for one and two weeks from now.

    Also, Hamilton missed the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix due to COVID-19. That made zero difference the title and gave us a fantastic (and highly profitable) race, but if one of the protagonists gets infected and the other doesn't then that's almost a game over moment.

    If they decide to have the last race with no spectators, I’m going to go mad! :grimace:

    One of the protagonists, as you note, has had Covid already. The other one needs to spend the next fortnight being very careful indeed.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604
    Stereodog said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Just buy yourself a proper mask and leave everyone else alone
    My husband and I tested positive for COVID last night after nearly 2 years of following the rules and doing the right thing. That same day we took my very vulnerable mother out for a drive in the car. This morning I'm beginning to find anti mask rhetoric just a bit annoying.
    I'm sorry to hear that, obviously, and hope your family are ok.

    They key bit is "two years". That's a big chunk of time, particularly for children and uni students whose lives have been irreparably damaged by this pandemic.

    Everyone has been double-vaxxed, boosters are available, admissions are decreasing. For how many more months/years would you like people of my generation to put our lives on hold?
  • Mr. Sandpit, I wonder if they'll cancel the races. But even if that might be advisable they'll be loath to end such a great title battle that way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Sandpit said:

    Just realised there's a small chance Omicron might cause cancellations of a race or two... they're scheduled for one and two weeks from now.

    Also, Hamilton missed the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix due to COVID-19. That made zero difference the title and gave us a fantastic (and highly profitable) race, but if one of the protagonists gets infected and the other doesn't then that's almost a game over moment.

    If they decide to have the last race with no spectators, I’m going to go mad! :grimace:

    One of the protagonists, as you note, has had Covid already. The other one needs to spend the next fortnight being very careful indeed.
    That would be a dramatic break with his past performance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,762

    Mr. Sandpit, I wonder if they'll cancel the races. But even if that might be advisable they'll be loath to end such a great title battle that way.

    Can’t see them cancelling the races.

    They can arrive on dedicated flights and Isolate themselves from everyone, as worked with the protocols in place last year. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are only 600 miles from each other by road, so they can drive stuff between them in one day.

    I’m much more worried about spectator restrictions - for the entirely selfish reason that I’m taking my wife to her first F1 race, and have decent hospitality tickets.
  • Mr. Sandpit, hope it works out and you both have a splendid (and profitable) time.
  • Stereodog said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Just buy yourself a proper mask and leave everyone else alone
    My husband and I tested positive for COVID last night after nearly 2 years of following the rules and doing the right thing. That same day we took my very vulnerable mother out for a drive in the car. This morning I'm beginning to find anti mask rhetoric just a bit annoying.
    Wishing you both a speedy recovery and hope your mum is OK. My wife and I both just had it - both double vaxed. It was pretty nasty but it's over now. If you develop symptoms get plenty of rest and be kind to yourselves.
  • Mr. Stereodog, hope you're both ok, and your mother also.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,152
    I feel like Omicron might be just the spark the Dead Pool needs.

    A reminder of your runners and riders.

    @Dura_Ace David Mitchell
    @tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
    @MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
    @SandyRentool Simon Calder
    @malcolmg Philip Schofield
    @kinabula The Queen
    @Garethofthevale2 Michael Heseltine
    @Philip_Thompson S.K. Tremayne
    @RochdalePioneers George R.R. Martin
    @Foss Prince Philip
    @Benpointer Donald Trump
    @Endillion David Attenborough
    @nichomar Anne Widdicombe
    @Topping Cordelia Gummer
    @AramintaMoonbeamQC Jeremy Corbyn
    @Beibheirli_C Clint Eastwood
    @Richard_Tyndall Prince Charles
    @williamglenn Barry Manilow
    @felix Owen Jones
    @eristdoof Keith Richards
    @paulyork64 Paul Gascoigne
    @OldKingCole Dennis Skinner
    @CarlottaVance Duchess of Cornwall
    @Stocky Michael Palin
    @Pro_Rata Kenneth Clarke
    @MrEd Gwyneth Paltrow
    @Paristonda Boris Johnson
    @TrèsDifficile Marine Le Pen
    @Martin_Kinsella Mahmoud Ahmedinajad
    @Fenster Sean Connery
    @JohnO Elton John
    @Theuniondivvie Olivia de Havilland
    @Chameleon Dick Van Dyke
    @rottenborough Joe Biden
    @LucyJones Piers Morgan
    @twistedfirestopper3 Jean Marie Le Pen
    @RandallFlagg Stephen King
    @GIN1138 Nigel Farage
    @ukpaul Alex Jones
    @MaxPB Ruth Bader Ginsburg
    @rcs1000 rsc1000
    @another_richard Prunella Scales
    @viewcode Bob Dole
    @pulpstar Harvey Weinstein
    @Pagan2 Matt Damon

    Phil the Greek, Olivia de Havilland and the Notorious RBG have already died but not of covid so hard luck Union Divvie, Foss and Max. That's the risk you take with goal hanging.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,935
    Heathener said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on the new variant:
    https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1464599574090289154

    The point about T-cells is well made. While we don’t know anywhere near as much about their interactions with the virus (they’re rather more difficult to study in the lab than antibodies), we do know that their recognition of the spike protein is much more comprehensive, and so way more difficult to evade.

    Thanks for this.

    Do you know, or have you seen from reputable sources (emphasis), any early indicators of whether the 'traditional' vaccine method (AZ) or the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna) might work better against this particular mutation?
    AZ is not a 'traditional' vaccine, viral-vector vaccines are just as 'new' as mRNA vaccines. In both cases the technology dates back to the 1970s but only very recently have they started being used clinically.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,612
    edited November 2021
    For United Kingdom real-world data to assess transmissibility or outcomes like hospitalisations need a minimum:

    • several hundred cases

    • +2 weeks from the positive specimen, time for cases to spread to contacts and/or people to get ill (if they’re going to)

    • +4 weeks for deaths


    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1464873706874937346?s=20

    In other words, we won't know until early 2022.....at the earliest....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    There is a cognitive dissonance in the government’s thinking about refugees. An eagerness to celebrate immigrant success stories, like that of Mr Zahawi, is accompanied by a system of managing asylum seekers designed to place huge and often treacherous obstacles in the path of anyone hoping to replicate his story. The result is a regime that neither displays compassion towards those seeking refuge nor gives voters confidence that the government has migration under control.

    Viewed from Greece or Italy, which have seen much greater flows of migration, what Britain calls a “crisis” is a relatively modest challenge. It is not so much the numbers of those trying to cross the Channel as the visibility of them that has turned this into a political crisis.

    The prime minister is...angrily exasperated by what he sees as Priti Patel’s failure to “grip” the issue. The home secretary, in turn, has spent her time blaming the French. They shouldn’t take it personally, because she also blames her own officials and legal advisers. Her efforts to shift culpability elsewhere are no longer working with her party.

    One senior Tory remarks: “The trouble is all the political pressure on Boris is coming from hopelessly unrealistic headbangers on the right of my party saying, ‘Just send them back’. This is leading Boris and Priti in exactly the wrong direction because it will only increase French intransigence and make it even more difficult to solve.”

    France is the country Britain most needs to be talking to. Neither the plight of the refugees nor public confidence in the management of migration will be improved without cooperation. Unfortunately, it is one of the least well-kept secrets in diplomacy that Anglo-French relations are dreadful.

    Which points to a glaring and tragic irony. A Brexit sold with the slogan “take back control” has left the UK with a border that is now harder to control. Our country is even more dependent on collaboration with European neighbours who have much less incentive to be cooperative. There will be an empty chair where Britain should be sitting. Puerile point-scoring and phoney posturing have to stop before more people perish in the icy waters of the Channel.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,562

    dixiedean said:

    Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it.
    We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.

    A friend living with a husband and two children, all down with it simultaneously, probably wouldn't agree. Another says that the situation at her (sick) daughter's school is insane, with staff and pupils both going down like ninepins - little serious education is taking place because of lack of continuity.
    so its not really the illness bu the over reaction to it that disrupts the education.
    We should've desisted from bothering to test children at all before the new school year started in September (by which point all adults, including logically all school staff, had been offered vaccination.) The kids themselves are all but invulnerable to serious illness; almost all children will suffer more from yet more cycles of hokey-cokey self-isolation than they will from catching Covid.

    No child should be sent home from school for having Covid unless actually poorly with it. Contacts of those children shouldn't be sent home full stop.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,762
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    There is a cognitive dissonance in the government’s thinking about refugees. An eagerness to celebrate immigrant success stories, like that of Mr Zahawi, is accompanied by a system of managing asylum seekers designed to place huge and often treacherous obstacles in the path of anyone hoping to replicate his story. The result is a regime that neither displays compassion towards those seeking refuge nor gives voters confidence that the government has migration under control.

    Viewed from Greece or Italy, which have seen much greater flows of migration, what Britain calls a “crisis” is a relatively modest challenge. It is not so much the numbers of those trying to cross the Channel as the visibility of them that has turned this into a political crisis.

    The prime minister is...angrily exasperated by what he sees as Priti Patel’s failure to “grip” the issue. The home secretary, in turn, has spent her time blaming the French. They shouldn’t take it personally, because she also blames her own officials and legal advisers. Her efforts to shift culpability elsewhere are no longer working with her party.

    One senior Tory remarks: “The trouble is all the political pressure on Boris is coming from hopelessly unrealistic headbangers on the right of my party saying, ‘Just send them back’. This is leading Boris and Priti in exactly the wrong direction because it will only increase French intransigence and make it even more difficult to solve.”

    France is the country Britain most needs to be talking to. Neither the plight of the refugees nor public confidence in the management of migration will be improved without cooperation. Unfortunately, it is one of the least well-kept secrets in diplomacy that Anglo-French relations are dreadful.

    Which points to a glaring and tragic irony. A Brexit sold with the slogan “take back control” has left the UK with a border that is now harder to control. Our country is even more dependent on collaboration with European neighbours who have much less incentive to be cooperative. There will be an empty chair where Britain should be sitting. Puerile point-scoring and phoney posturing have to stop before more people perish in the icy waters of the Channel.

    Has he been writing slightly different versions of the same article since June 2016, or July 2019?
  • Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    So you're a self centred prick determined to break the law in order to inflict your preferences on others.

    The irony is off the scale.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,779
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    There is a cognitive dissonance in the government’s thinking about refugees. An eagerness to celebrate immigrant success stories, like that of Mr Zahawi, is accompanied by a system of managing asylum seekers designed to place huge and often treacherous obstacles in the path of anyone hoping to replicate his story. The result is a regime that neither displays compassion towards those seeking refuge nor gives voters confidence that the government has migration under control.

    Viewed from Greece or Italy, which have seen much greater flows of migration, what Britain calls a “crisis” is a relatively modest challenge. It is not so much the numbers of those trying to cross the Channel as the visibility of them that has turned this into a political crisis.

    The prime minister is...angrily exasperated by what he sees as Priti Patel’s failure to “grip” the issue. The home secretary, in turn, has spent her time blaming the French. They shouldn’t take it personally, because she also blames her own officials and legal advisers. Her efforts to shift culpability elsewhere are no longer working with her party.

    One senior Tory remarks: “The trouble is all the political pressure on Boris is coming from hopelessly unrealistic headbangers on the right of my party saying, ‘Just send them back’. This is leading Boris and Priti in exactly the wrong direction because it will only increase French intransigence and make it even more difficult to solve.”

    France is the country Britain most needs to be talking to. Neither the plight of the refugees nor public confidence in the management of migration will be improved without cooperation. Unfortunately, it is one of the least well-kept secrets in diplomacy that Anglo-French relations are dreadful.

    Which points to a glaring and tragic irony. A Brexit sold with the slogan “take back control” has left the UK with a border that is now harder to control. Our country is even more dependent on collaboration with European neighbours who have much less incentive to be cooperative. There will be an empty chair where Britain should be sitting. Puerile point-scoring and phoney posturing have to stop before more people perish in the icy waters of the Channel.

    Has he been writing slightly different versions of the same article since June 2016, or July 2019?
    But is it wrong. Seems a pretty good summary to me.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I feel like Omicron might be just the spark the Dead Pool needs.

    A reminder of your runners and riders.

    @Dura_Ace David Mitchell
    @tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
    @MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
    @SandyRentool Simon Calder
    @malcolmg Philip Schofield
    @kinabula The Queen
    @Garethofthevale2 Michael Heseltine
    @Philip_Thompson S.K. Tremayne
    @RochdalePioneers George R.R. Martin
    @Foss Prince Philip
    @Benpointer Donald Trump
    @Endillion David Attenborough
    @nichomar Anne Widdicombe
    @Topping Cordelia Gummer
    @AramintaMoonbeamQC Jeremy Corbyn
    @Beibheirli_C Clint Eastwood
    @Richard_Tyndall Prince Charles
    @williamglenn Barry Manilow
    @felix Owen Jones
    @eristdoof Keith Richards
    @paulyork64 Paul Gascoigne
    @OldKingCole Dennis Skinner
    @CarlottaVance Duchess of Cornwall
    @Stocky Michael Palin
    @Pro_Rata Kenneth Clarke
    @MrEd Gwyneth Paltrow
    @Paristonda Boris Johnson
    @TrèsDifficile Marine Le Pen
    @Martin_Kinsella Mahmoud Ahmedinajad
    @Fenster Sean Connery
    @JohnO Elton John
    @Theuniondivvie Olivia de Havilland
    @Chameleon Dick Van Dyke
    @rottenborough Joe Biden
    @LucyJones Piers Morgan
    @twistedfirestopper3 Jean Marie Le Pen
    @RandallFlagg Stephen King
    @GIN1138 Nigel Farage
    @ukpaul Alex Jones
    @MaxPB Ruth Bader Ginsburg
    @rcs1000 rsc1000
    @another_richard Prunella Scales
    @viewcode Bob Dole
    @pulpstar Harvey Weinstein
    @Pagan2 Matt Damon

    Phil the Greek, Olivia de Havilland and the Notorious RBG have already died but not of covid so hard luck Union Divvie, Foss and Max. That's the risk you take with goal hanging.

    Can I have a late entry?

    Stanley Johnson
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,762
    edited November 2021
    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    There is a cognitive dissonance in the government’s thinking about refugees. An eagerness to celebrate immigrant success stories, like that of Mr Zahawi, is accompanied by a system of managing asylum seekers designed to place huge and often treacherous obstacles in the path of anyone hoping to replicate his story. The result is a regime that neither displays compassion towards those seeking refuge nor gives voters confidence that the government has migration under control.

    Viewed from Greece or Italy, which have seen much greater flows of migration, what Britain calls a “crisis” is a relatively modest challenge. It is not so much the numbers of those trying to cross the Channel as the visibility of them that has turned this into a political crisis.

    The prime minister is...angrily exasperated by what he sees as Priti Patel’s failure to “grip” the issue. The home secretary, in turn, has spent her time blaming the French. They shouldn’t take it personally, because she also blames her own officials and legal advisers. Her efforts to shift culpability elsewhere are no longer working with her party.

    One senior Tory remarks: “The trouble is all the political pressure on Boris is coming from hopelessly unrealistic headbangers on the right of my party saying, ‘Just send them back’. This is leading Boris and Priti in exactly the wrong direction because it will only increase French intransigence and make it even more difficult to solve.”

    France is the country Britain most needs to be talking to. Neither the plight of the refugees nor public confidence in the management of migration will be improved without cooperation. Unfortunately, it is one of the least well-kept secrets in diplomacy that Anglo-French relations are dreadful.

    Which points to a glaring and tragic irony. A Brexit sold with the slogan “take back control” has left the UK with a border that is now harder to control. Our country is even more dependent on collaboration with European neighbours who have much less incentive to be cooperative. There will be an empty chair where Britain should be sitting. Puerile point-scoring and phoney posturing have to stop before more people perish in the icy waters of the Channel.

    Has he been writing slightly different versions of the same article since June 2016, or July 2019?
    But is it wrong. Seems a pretty good summary to me.
    He appears to start every week with the premise that whatever the government has been up to is wrong and evil, and works backwards from there. He’s making the usual pundit mistake, of thinking that sarcastic slogans are an acceptable substitute for actual reasoned analysis.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,621
    alex_ said:

    If Omicron is as transmissible as suggested, BUT is also not particularly harmful (even possibly less so than existing variants) then it is going to cause big problems in the U.K. because of the ongoing crude way we calculate hospitalisations and deaths.

    There will be a huge spike in positive tests which will automatically lead to huge spikes in reported hospitalisations and deaths (every heart attack, stroke, cancer victim etc etc will be a Covid case). The nuance isn’t there is the reported stats and most will conclude that a struggling NHS is being overwhelmed by Covid. And then restrictions which have no basis in reality would follow.

    I was wandering about how other nations report hospitalisation compared to ourselves.

    We are repotting a reasonable number of cases compared to our EU friends, that is presumably because we are doing a lot more testing than they are.

    But if you you at ICU occupancy the pitcher changes, France has more people in ICU than we do, (despite less than half the number of 'cases', and Germany nearly 4 times more in ICU despite having only slightly more cases than the UK.

    The ratio of hospitalisation numbers however look closer to the cases numbers than the ICU numbers. (at least according to Our Would in Data) which feels strange.

    Are EU nations recording hospitalisation differently to the UK?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,562
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel like Omicron might be just the spark the Dead Pool needs.

    A reminder of your runners and riders.

    @Dura_Ace David Mitchell
    @tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
    @MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
    @SandyRentool Simon Calder
    @malcolmg Philip Schofield
    @kinabula The Queen
    @Garethofthevale2 Michael Heseltine
    @Philip_Thompson S.K. Tremayne
    @RochdalePioneers George R.R. Martin
    @Foss Prince Philip
    @Benpointer Donald Trump
    @Endillion David Attenborough
    @nichomar Anne Widdicombe
    @Topping Cordelia Gummer
    @AramintaMoonbeamQC Jeremy Corbyn
    @Beibheirli_C Clint Eastwood
    @Richard_Tyndall Prince Charles
    @williamglenn Barry Manilow
    @felix Owen Jones
    @eristdoof Keith Richards
    @paulyork64 Paul Gascoigne
    @OldKingCole Dennis Skinner
    @CarlottaVance Duchess of Cornwall
    @Stocky Michael Palin
    @Pro_Rata Kenneth Clarke
    @MrEd Gwyneth Paltrow
    @Paristonda Boris Johnson
    @TrèsDifficile Marine Le Pen
    @Martin_Kinsella Mahmoud Ahmedinajad
    @Fenster Sean Connery
    @JohnO Elton John
    @Theuniondivvie Olivia de Havilland
    @Chameleon Dick Van Dyke
    @rottenborough Joe Biden
    @LucyJones Piers Morgan
    @twistedfirestopper3 Jean Marie Le Pen
    @RandallFlagg Stephen King
    @GIN1138 Nigel Farage
    @ukpaul Alex Jones
    @MaxPB Ruth Bader Ginsburg
    @rcs1000 rsc1000
    @another_richard Prunella Scales
    @viewcode Bob Dole
    @pulpstar Harvey Weinstein
    @Pagan2 Matt Damon

    Phil the Greek, Olivia de Havilland and the Notorious RBG have already died but not of covid so hard luck Union Divvie, Foss and Max. That's the risk you take with goal hanging.

    When did this competition start, during the first lockdown? Bader Ginsburg and Connery have both been gone for over a year.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 649
    glw said:

    Heathener said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on the new variant:
    https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1464599574090289154

    The point about T-cells is well made. While we don’t know anywhere near as much about their interactions with the virus (they’re rather more difficult to study in the lab than antibodies), we do know that their recognition of the spike protein is much more comprehensive, and so way more difficult to evade.

    Thanks for this.

    Do you know, or have you seen from reputable sources (emphasis), any early indicators of whether the 'traditional' vaccine method (AZ) or the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna) might work better against this particular mutation?
    AZ is not a 'traditional' vaccine, viral-vector vaccines are just as 'new' as mRNA vaccines. In both cases the technology dates back to the 1970s but only very recently have they started being used clinically.
    The idea is old, but the first functional mRNA human trials started in 2013 (against Rabies according to Wikipedia). These vaccines are very new.

    There were some earlier treatments based on direct injection of synthesised mRNA, but those date from 2001 & were (IIRC) individually customised cancer treatments. They certainly weren’t the kind of mass treatment that would tell you about rare side effects.

    The mRNA vaccines went through the same testing regimen that any vaccine does, on a schedule that was accelerated by overlapping all the processes instead of doing them in sequence as one normally would & even accepting that some of the speculative papers on side effects represent something real, you are still better off on average getting vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine than you are catching full-blown Covid-19.

    (I predict the overwhelming majority of these putative side effects will evaporate in the sunlight of greater scientific scrutiny, but some may be real.)

    If we get the pandemic under control, then the balance of risks might change. Until then, getting vaccinated is overwhelmingly the sane personal choice.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Someone I know, unvaccinated, has just returned from SA and the mate he was with has tested positive. Won’t be asking them round for dinner anytime soon!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    One feature of the current migration 'crisis' which occurs to me is that it helps to demolish the belief that Britain, as an island, was less influenced from 'abroad in early historical times. Surely if groups of people can easily cross the Channel (or South North Sea) in the flimsy craft which see pictured, more substantial boats, crewed by fit and experienced oarsman, would have had few problems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    edited November 2021
    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it.
    We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.

    A friend living with a husband and two children, all down with it simultaneously, probably wouldn't agree. Another says that the situation at her (sick) daughter's school is insane, with staff and pupils both going down like ninepins - little serious education is taking place because of lack of continuity.
    so its not really the illness bu the over reaction to it that disrupts the education.
    We should've desisted from bothering to test children at all before the new school year started in September (by which point all adults, including logically all school staff, had been offered vaccination.) The kids themselves are all but invulnerable to serious illness; almost all children will suffer more from yet more cycles of hokey-cokey self-isolation than they will from catching Covid.

    No child should be sent home from school for having Covid unless actually poorly with it. Contacts of those children shouldn't be sent home full stop.
    They aren't being. That came to an end in July. As it happens, what was defined as a 'contact' even before that was subject to such wide interpretation as to be more or less meaningless, although it did cause a huge amount of disruption.

    As for LFTs, they aren't very good at picking up illness anyway.
  • King Cole, from whence did you hear this myth?

    Thinking of Roman, Irish, Anglo-Saxon, Norse, and Norman invasions...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223

    Three years to go. Boris is too busy sorting out COVID. He is not bothered by polls.

    He has been found out. In hindsight it was inevitable. As a Prime Minister you have nowhere to hide and for someone who has employed this tactic since he first became an MP he's finding it impossible to cope. Put your house on him not being PM a day after the next election. The sigh of relief will only be matched by 1997 when Blair rid us of the detritus of the Thatcher/Major years
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,116

    For United Kingdom real-world data to assess transmissibility or outcomes like hospitalisations need a minimum:

    • several hundred cases

    • +2 weeks from the positive specimen, time for cases to spread to contacts and/or people to get ill (if they’re going to)

    • +4 weeks for deaths


    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1464873706874937346?s=20

    In other words, we won't know until early 2022.....at the earliest....

    But all we need is the spike in cases for the pressure to grow exponentially for new restrictions to be imposed. That’s one of the problems with the “measures” announced last night. They will either be proven to be unnecessary or totally inadequate. They are basically a token gesture will will have almost zero impact on spread. The principle of reimposing restrictions has been conceded, and will be difficult to resist going further. Once you accept the precautionary principle, the restrictions enthusiasts have all the arguments on their side.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    edited November 2021
    BigRich said:

    alex_ said:

    If Omicron is as transmissible as suggested, BUT is also not particularly harmful (even possibly less so than existing variants) then it is going to cause big problems in the U.K. because of the ongoing crude way we calculate hospitalisations and deaths.

    There will be a huge spike in positive tests which will automatically lead to huge spikes in reported hospitalisations and deaths (every heart attack, stroke, cancer victim etc etc will be a Covid case). The nuance isn’t there is the reported stats and most will conclude that a struggling NHS is being overwhelmed by Covid. And then restrictions which have no basis in reality would follow.

    I was wandering about how other nations report hospitalisation compared to ourselves.

    We are repotting a reasonable number of cases compared to our EU friends, that is presumably because we are doing a lot more testing than they are.

    But if you you at ICU occupancy the pitcher changes, France has more people in ICU than we do, (despite less than half the number of 'cases', and Germany nearly 4 times more in ICU despite having only slightly more cases than the UK.

    The ratio of hospitalisation numbers however look closer to the cases numbers than the ICU numbers. (at least according to Our Would in Data) which feels strange.

    Are EU nations recording hospitalisation differently to the UK?
    I think actually there may be a simpler explanation - they've been much less effective at vaccinating vulnerable groups than we have despite the higher headline figures, and they've used vaccines where immunity wanes faster, administered in such a way that there was less immunity to start with.

    So the same number of cases leads to more people who are vulnerable getting ill.
  • BigRich said:

    alex_ said:

    If Omicron is as transmissible as suggested, BUT is also not particularly harmful (even possibly less so than existing variants) then it is going to cause big problems in the U.K. because of the ongoing crude way we calculate hospitalisations and deaths.

    There will be a huge spike in positive tests which will automatically lead to huge spikes in reported hospitalisations and deaths (every heart attack, stroke, cancer victim etc etc will be a Covid case). The nuance isn’t there is the reported stats and most will conclude that a struggling NHS is being overwhelmed by Covid. And then restrictions which have no basis in reality would follow.

    I was wandering about how other nations report hospitalisation compared to ourselves.

    We are repotting a reasonable number of cases compared to our EU friends, that is presumably because we are doing a lot more testing than they are.

    But if you you at ICU occupancy the pitcher changes, France has more people in ICU than we do, (despite less than half the number of 'cases', and Germany nearly 4 times more in ICU despite having only slightly more cases than the UK.

    The ratio of hospitalisation numbers however look closer to the cases numbers than the ICU numbers. (at least according to Our Would in Data) which feels strange.

    Are EU nations recording hospitalisation differently to the UK?
    Germany (according to the World in Data) is under testing with a positivity rate ±17% - which may well be why they've been "surprised" by this spike - France has similar positivity rates to the UK ±4% which suggests they are finding the infected - despite testing a lot less than the UK.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,152
    pigeon said:



    When did this competition start, during the first lockdown? Bader Ginsburg and Connery have both been gone for over a year.

    The start of 2020 when covid first hit as far as I can remember about the time that it wasn't absolutely clear if we were all going to be dead or not by St Swithin's day. If somebody wins it I will close the competition and restart it, open to new entrants. I've made a trophy out of a broken piston that was in a turboed BMW M52 motor that I blew up by wiring the wastegate closed to try and win a YouTube burnout competition.
  • One feature of the current migration 'crisis' which occurs to me is that it helps to demolish the belief that Britain, as an island, was less influenced from 'abroad in early historical times. Surely if groups of people can easily cross the Channel (or South North Sea) in the flimsy craft which see pictured, more substantial boats, crewed by fit and experienced oarsman, would have had few problems.

    It's generally recognised that coastal waters were easier to travel over than equivalent distances by land for long periods of history. Thus, for example, the movements of people across the North Channel and around the Western Isles.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968

    King Cole, from whence did you hear this myth?

    Thinking of Roman, Irish, Anglo-Saxon, Norse, and Norman invasions...

    It was rather the thinking behind 'how difficult it was'.
    And the Anglo-Saxon invasion was more of a migration into sparsely populated territory, as I understand current thinking.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Dura_Ace said:

    pigeon said:



    When did this competition start, during the first lockdown? Bader Ginsburg and Connery have both been gone for over a year.

    The start of 2020 when covid first hit as far as I can remember about the time that it wasn't absolutely clear if we were all going to be dead or not by St Swithin's day. If somebody wins it I will close the competition and restart it, open to new entrants. I've made a trophy out of a broken piston that was in a turboed BMW M52 motor that I blew up by wiring the wastegate closed to try and win a YouTube burnout competition.
    Have you asked @Leon for a Flint dildo to top it off?
  • ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In any event, I will do my LFT this morning, and head off to a carol service in Ambleside.
    As a vaxxed and recently recovered individual, I don’t think I pose much of a threat to anyone right at the moment.

    At the main church? Fabulous organ they’ve got there. Also very historic - one of the earliest experimental tubular pneumatic actions, and one of the few not to have been electrified.

    Edit - on checking, it has recently been electrified. Understandable but also regrettable. There’s an organ in Stafford undergoing the same process. Soon there will be few examples left (Cannock being one, ironically).
    While I was there the organ in chapel at Oriel was rebuilt with a mechanical action: https://www.oriel.ox.ac.uk/life-oriel/chapel/choir-and-music
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,762
    alex_ said:

    For United Kingdom real-world data to assess transmissibility or outcomes like hospitalisations need a minimum:

    • several hundred cases

    • +2 weeks from the positive specimen, time for cases to spread to contacts and/or people to get ill (if they’re going to)

    • +4 weeks for deaths


    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1464873706874937346?s=20

    In other words, we won't know until early 2022.....at the earliest....

    But all we need is the spike in cases for the pressure to grow exponentially for new restrictions to be imposed. That’s one of the problems with the “measures” announced last night. They will either be proven to be unnecessary or totally inadequate. They are basically a token gesture will will have almost zero impact on spread. The principle of reimposing restrictions has been conceded, and will be difficult to resist going further. Once you accept the precautionary principle, the restrictions enthusiasts have all the arguments on their side.
    What restrictions are actually being re-imposed, as opposed to being re-stated. Avoiding meetings as much as possible, and wearing masks on public transport and in shops has always been the advise, and comes with little actual cost to businesses.

    Restrictions that do come with a cost attached, such as restricting value capacities, is stil unlikely unless we see a spike - not in cases though, but in hospitalisations.
  • Interesting - having moved from almost all Moderna, East Sussex NHS is now doing almost exclusively Pfizer (and a limited amount of AZ).

    B*gger.....I'd fancied Moderna, but as the Irish wisely said at the start of this "the best vaccine you can have is the one you can have NOW."
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,116
    edited November 2021
    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    For United Kingdom real-world data to assess transmissibility or outcomes like hospitalisations need a minimum:

    • several hundred cases

    • +2 weeks from the positive specimen, time for cases to spread to contacts and/or people to get ill (if they’re going to)

    • +4 weeks for deaths


    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1464873706874937346?s=20

    In other words, we won't know until early 2022.....at the earliest....

    But all we need is the spike in cases for the pressure to grow exponentially for new restrictions to be imposed. That’s one of the problems with the “measures” announced last night. They will either be proven to be unnecessary or totally inadequate. They are basically a token gesture will will have almost zero impact on spread. The principle of reimposing restrictions has been conceded, and will be difficult to resist going further. Once you accept the precautionary principle, the restrictions enthusiasts have all the arguments on their side.
    What restrictions are actually being re-imposed, as opposed to being re-stated. Avoiding meetings as much as possible, and wearing masks on public transport and in shops has always been the advise, and comes with little actual cost to businesses.

    Restrictions that do come with a cost attached, such as restricting value capacities, is stil unlikely unless we see a spike - not in cases though, but in hospitalisations.
    The difference is the legal requirement.

    It may also be little material change in practice, but it is the message that is the danger. The Govt may be trying to give the message that they are doing something (whilst actually doing little or nothing) and think this is clever, but i’m not sure that will work once the press gets moving.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,562
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it.
    We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.

    A friend living with a husband and two children, all down with it simultaneously, probably wouldn't agree. Another says that the situation at her (sick) daughter's school is insane, with staff and pupils both going down like ninepins - little serious education is taking place because of lack of continuity.
    so its not really the illness bu the over reaction to it that disrupts the education.
    We should've desisted from bothering to test children at all before the new school year started in September (by which point all adults, including logically all school staff, had been offered vaccination.) The kids themselves are all but invulnerable to serious illness; almost all children will suffer more from yet more cycles of hokey-cokey self-isolation than they will from catching Covid.

    No child should be sent home from school for having Covid unless actually poorly with it. Contacts of those children shouldn't be sent home full stop.
    They aren't being. That came to an end in July. As it happens, what was defined as a 'contact' even before that was subject to such wide interpretation as to be more or less meaningless, although it did cause a huge amount of disruption.

    As for LFTs, they aren't very good at picking up illness anyway.
    AIUI, whilst the class and year group bubbles have been scrapped, an awful lot of children are still being pulled from classes because of Covid. Forgive my lack of persistence in not bothering to look for really recent numbers, but this is what was reported as going on last month:

    The number of children out of school with a confirmed case of COVID-19 topped 100,000 in England last week, according to government figures.

    The Department for Education (DfE) found the number of pupils out of school for coronavirus-related reasons increased by two thirds in a fortnight.

    More than 204,000 - 2.5% of all pupils - were not in class for reasons connected to COVID-19 on Thursday last week.

    This is up from 122,300 children, or 1.5% of all pupils on 16 September - a 67% rise from two weeks ago.

    The figures come as heads reported "a high level of disruption", with a school leaders' union warning that self-isolation rules are "actively contributing" to the spread of the virus in schools.


    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-over-100-000-children-out-of-school-with-confirmed-coronavirus-last-week-12426652

    100k kids off with Covid, plus about another 100k off "for reasons connected to Covid". I'd be very surprised if all of the first category were too ill to go to school, and the second category sounds suspiciously like contact self-isolation. Besides which, isn't there also a big brouhaha going on at the moment about a new Government edict that they want the entire school population tested when they get back after Christmas?

    The corrosive effect of Covid rules on education would appear to be ongoing.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,621
    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it.
    We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.

    A friend living with a husband and two children, all down with it simultaneously, probably wouldn't agree. Another says that the situation at her (sick) daughter's school is insane, with staff and pupils both going down like ninepins - little serious education is taking place because of lack of continuity.
    so its not really the illness bu the over reaction to it that disrupts the education.
    We should've desisted from bothering to test children at all before the new school year started in September (by which point all adults, including logically all school staff, had been offered vaccination.) The kids themselves are all but invulnerable to serious illness; almost all children will suffer more from yet more cycles of hokey-cokey self-isolation than they will from catching Covid.

    No child should be sent home from school for having Covid unless actually poorly with it. Contacts of those children shouldn't be sent home full stop.
    Worth remembering that we have had a lot of case in kids this autumn, (compared to other nations, at least in part because we kept schools closed for longer than anywhere else in Europe, and when they were open late March to June this year we ran a very strict 'get out if you have been near anybody' policy. Therefor we alown had a large proportion of our kids without antibodies/T cells. This has not helped us this autumn!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529
    Stereodog said:

    Heathener said:

    I shall continue to challenge anyone not wearing a mask on public transport or in shops.

    Just buy yourself a proper mask and leave everyone else alone
    My husband and I tested positive for COVID last night after nearly 2 years of following the rules and doing the right thing. That same day we took my very vulnerable mother out for a drive in the car. This morning I'm beginning to find anti mask rhetoric just a bit annoying.
    While I'm very sympathetic, I'm not sure what relevance that has?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In any event, I will do my LFT this morning, and head off to a carol service in Ambleside.
    As a vaxxed and recently recovered individual, I don’t think I pose much of a threat to anyone right at the moment.

    At the main church? Fabulous organ they’ve got there. Also very historic - one of the earliest experimental tubular pneumatic actions, and one of the few not to have been electrified.

    Edit - on checking, it has recently been electrified. Understandable but also regrettable. There’s an organ in Stafford undergoing the same process. Soon there will be few examples left (Cannock being one, ironically).
    While I was there the organ in chapel at Oriel was rebuilt with a mechanical action: https://www.oriel.ox.ac.uk/life-oriel/chapel/choir-and-music
    Looks a good instrument, albeit I wouldn't care to try and change the register on the Great while playing with that console layout!

    The first organ I played had a fully electrical action, but then I played one in Aber that was a tracker (mechanical) action basically unaltered since 1899. Very robust. Only ever once had a problem with it when the Swell to Great coupler stopped working, right in the middle of Evensong. A pin had come out. Unfortunately the coupler was on at the time...
  • pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it.
    We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.

    A friend living with a husband and two children, all down with it simultaneously, probably wouldn't agree. Another says that the situation at her (sick) daughter's school is insane, with staff and pupils both going down like ninepins - little serious education is taking place because of lack of continuity.
    so its not really the illness bu the over reaction to it that disrupts the education.
    We should've desisted from bothering to test children at all before the new school year started in September (by which point all adults, including logically all school staff, had been offered vaccination.) The kids themselves are all but invulnerable to serious illness; almost all children will suffer more from yet more cycles of hokey-cokey self-isolation than they will from catching Covid.

    No child should be sent home from school for having Covid unless actually poorly with it. Contacts of those children shouldn't be sent home full stop.
    They aren't being. That came to an end in July. As it happens, what was defined as a 'contact' even before that was subject to such wide interpretation as to be more or less meaningless, although it did cause a huge amount of disruption.

    As for LFTs, they aren't very good at picking up illness anyway.
    AIUI, whilst the class and year group bubbles have been scrapped, an awful lot of children are still being pulled from classes because of Covid. Forgive my lack of persistence in not bothering to look for really recent numbers, but this is what was reported as going on last month:

    The number of children out of school with a confirmed case of COVID-19 topped 100,000 in England last week, according to government figures.

    The Department for Education (DfE) found the number of pupils out of school for coronavirus-related reasons increased by two thirds in a fortnight.

    More than 204,000 - 2.5% of all pupils - were not in class for reasons connected to COVID-19 on Thursday last week.

    This is up from 122,300 children, or 1.5% of all pupils on 16 September - a 67% rise from two weeks ago.

    The figures come as heads reported "a high level of disruption", with a school leaders' union warning that self-isolation rules are "actively contributing" to the spread of the virus in schools.


    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-over-100-000-children-out-of-school-with-confirmed-coronavirus-last-week-12426652

    100k kids off with Covid, plus about another 100k off "for reasons connected to Covid". I'd be very surprised if all of the first category were too ill to go to school, and the second category sounds suspiciously like contact self-isolation. Besides which, isn't there also a big brouhaha going on at the moment about a new Government edict that they want the entire school population tested when they get back after Christmas?

    The corrosive effect of Covid rules on education would appear to be ongoing.
    Reasons connected to Covid could be waiting for a PCR test after a positive LFT.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,621

    Interesting - having moved from almost all Moderna, East Sussex NHS is now doing almost exclusively Pfizer (and a limited amount of AZ).

    B*gger.....I'd fancied Moderna, but as the Irish wisely said at the start of this "the best vaccine you can have is the one you can have NOW."

    Who is getting the AZ? i thought we had stopped using that?
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