Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The poll finding that should rattle Downing Street – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2021 in General
The poll finding that should rattle Downing Street – politicalbetting.com

If you were forced to choose, which of these would you prefer?A Labour government led by Keir Starmer: 42%A Conservative government led by Boris Johnson: 36%via @OpiniumResearch, 24-26 Nov

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    First as Starmer will be come the next election.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    edited November 2021
    I don't understand why you would ask this question rather than the standard If there were a GE tomorrow how would you vote? I mean, if you are getting a different answer from the usual VI question, it's probably because it's a different question.
  • Three years to go. Boris is too busy sorting out COVID. He is not bothered by polls.
  • Was this question asked in this format when Ed Miliband was Leader of the Opposition?

    If so, what were the results at this stage of the electoral cycle?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Doesn't look anything much to me. Dix by name, dix by nature, as they say in these parts.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Big whinge - “why didn’t he listen to me?” Not sure that there is anything in this tbh. Pretty confident the current vaccines will keep the vaccinated pretty safe.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    Omicron Variant sounds alarmingly like someone Boris Johnson went to to school with.

    Correct. The hon. Omicron Variant, son of Lord Isotope.
  • Was this question asked in this format when Ed Miliband was Leader of the Opposition?

    If so, what were the results at this stage of the electoral cycle?

    You have Google. Search for yourself.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    Either it's lethal, or it's everywhere. You can't have it both ways, and just one way on its own is not that scary.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Throwing all the chips in on Opinium. If you only read PB headers, you’d think it was the only pollster that existed, and smarlets was the only betting exchange
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    Kaboom? Yes let's say so.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,697
    edited November 2021
    eek said:

    Omicron Variant sounds alarmingly like someone Boris Johnson went to to school with.

    Sir Omicron Pi was a famous London physician in Anthony Trollope's Barchester saga.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    isam said:

    Throwing all the chips in on Opinium. If you only read PB headers, you’d think it was the only pollster that existed, and smarlets was the only betting exchange

    Well, If you knows of a better 'ole, go to it.
  • Recently, restrictions were tightened here in the Seattle area. King County (Seattle and most of its suburban population) began, for the first time, requiring proof of vaccinations, or a recent test, to enter businesses. At first, no one seemed to be enforcing it, at least in my limited experience, but yesterday a hamburger place was asking to see vaccine cards before we entered the sit-down dining area. (I was just getting takeout, so I didn't have to show mine. I'm not sure that makes sense, since I was standing inside, waiting for my order, in close proximity to others, for minutes.)

    This rule change was not in reaction to the Omicron variant, since it came before that variant was discovered. Nor was it a reaction to a sharp increase in cases, or deaths. I suspect that it came out of worry that, with Christmas approaching, and worse weather making people spend more time indoors, the virus would come back.

    Here's the press release, for those looking for details: https://kingcounty.gov/elected/executive/constantine/news/release/2021/September/16-proof-of-vaccination-negative-test.aspx. They cite scientific advice and estimates.

    (In general, Washington state has done relatively well against the virus, with a death rate per million (1,216) half that of the national average. And I say that as someone who didn't vote for our current leaders.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited November 2021
    Comment about Bexley by someone on the VoteUK forum:

    "However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting..."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15771/old-bexley-sidcup?page=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    Either it's lethal, or it's everywhere. You can't have it both ways, and just one way on its own is not that scary.
    My guess - just a guess - is that it’s lightly seeded everywhere with good air links to Southern Africa

    That can still be pretty bloody scary. Covid the Original bubbled under the surface for a while before exploding. Ditto Delta

    Nature of exponential growth. You don’t notice it until you do, and then, boom



  • glwglw Posts: 7,962

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
  • isam said:

    Throwing all the chips in on Opinium. If you only read PB headers, you’d think it was the only pollster that existed, and smarlets was the only betting exchange

    BJ's fan club is rattled tonight
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    glw said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
    That's my presumption. And shortly after Christmas, poor old Delta will be out of favour like that expensive toy your kids nagged you that they really really really wanted.
  • Charles said:
    Likely so.

    But the Valneva cancellation looked wrong then and even more so now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    Either it's lethal, or it's everywhere. You can't have it both ways, and just one way on its own is not that scary.
    My guess - just a guess - is that it’s lightly seeded everywhere with good air links to Southern Africa

    That can still be pretty bloody scary. Covid the Original bubbled under the surface for a while before exploding. Ditto Delta

    Nature of exponential growth. You don’t notice it until you do, and then, boom
    It don't matter to me
    All I want to be
    Is a million miles from here

    Seriously, fuck it. Drink claret.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    Three years to go. Boris is too busy sorting out COVID. He is not bothered by polls.

    You reckon?

    The invasion of France on Wednesday week will confound your assertion.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    Throwing all the chips in on Opinium. If you only read PB headers, you’d think it was the only pollster that existed, and smarlets was the only betting exchange

    BJ's fan club is rattled tonight
    Oh yes, completely ruined my day!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    Either it's lethal, or it's everywhere. You can't have it both ways, and just one way on its own is not that scary.
    My guess - just a guess - is that it’s lightly seeded everywhere with good air links to Southern Africa

    That can still be pretty bloody scary. Covid the Original bubbled under the surface for a while before exploding. Ditto Delta

    Nature of exponential growth. You don’t notice it until you do, and then, boom
    It don't matter to me
    All I want to be
    Is a million miles from here

    Seriously, fuck it. Drink claret.
    Malbec. Nice one from Marks & Sparks, plus Masterchef


    After a very agreeable day with my older child, I am quite content
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    Either it's lethal, or it's everywhere. You can't have it both ways, and just one way on its own is not that scary.
    My guess - just a guess - is that it’s lightly seeded everywhere with good air links to Southern Africa

    That can still be pretty bloody scary. Covid the Original bubbled under the surface for a while before exploding. Ditto Delta

    Nature of exponential growth. You don’t notice it until you do, and then, boom



    It took months for Delta to spread around the country and even longer to spread around Europe.

    The level of immunity from vaccination and previous infection really slowed it down.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    I was genuinely hoping that mask wearing might have been scrapped altogether pretty soon. Now this happens.
  • The Delta increase in France is fast:

    27/11 37,218
    20/11 22,678
    13/11 14,646
    06/11 9,605

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

    A suspicious person might wonder if there had been any South African rugby teams in France this autumn :wink:
  • isam said:

    Throwing all the chips in on Opinium. If you only read PB headers, you’d think it was the only pollster that existed, and smarlets was the only betting exchange

    BJ's fan club is rattled tonight
    The interesting thing looking at the WIkipedia graph is that, looking at all the polls, crossover has been coming for a while.

    The biggest picture is that, since about June, a 10 Conservative point lead (C43L33) has become a 1 point Labour lead (C36L37).

    If you take the wobbles on that trend seriously, the current change in fortunes looks like it kicked off around the beginning of October. At that point, the Conservatives had a fairly stable 5 point lead and that gap has closed in fairly short order since then.

    I don't know how much I believe the October effect- the wobbles are fairly small. But if so, the start of October doesn't really link to all the "events" that have dragged down the government's reputation recently. The only one where the timings work is the UC cut. That feels too neat to be true, though it matches the idea that more people notice the pounds in their pocket than the carnival of news.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I was genuinely hoping that mask wearing might have been scrapped altogether pretty soon. Now this happens.

    Just ignore it if you want to.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited November 2021
    Strange but true. You can lay Con Maj at 2.68 at a little known exchange, perhaps a start up, called ‘Betfair’ - has anyone heard of them? The price was 2.8 earlier this week

    Nom is 2.2 from 2.1
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited November 2021
    BBC still reporting that South African doctors are reasonably encouraged that the new variant is not particularly serious, despite being more transmissable.
  • BREAKING: Israel closes border to all foreigners due to new coronavirus variant
  • isam said:

    Strange but true. You can lay Con Maj at 2.68 at a little known exchange, perhaps a start up, called ‘Betfair’ - has anyone heard of them? The price was 2.8 earlier this week

    Nom is 2.2 from 2.1

    Lay the favourite.
  • Andy_JS said:

    BBC still reporting that South African doctors are reasonably encouraged that the new variant is not particularly serious, despite being more transmissable.

    We'll know one way or another in a few weeks.

    The know infected will be closely studied.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    Either it's lethal, or it's everywhere. You can't have it both ways, and just one way on its own is not that scary.
    My guess - just a guess - is that it’s lightly seeded everywhere with good air links to Southern Africa

    That can still be pretty bloody scary. Covid the Original bubbled under the surface for a while before exploding. Ditto Delta

    Nature of exponential growth. You don’t notice it until you do, and then, boom
    It don't matter to me
    All I want to be
    Is a million miles from here

    Seriously, fuck it. Drink claret.
    Malbec. Nice one from Marks & Sparks, plus Masterchef


    After a very agreeable day with my older child, I am quite content
    If you think it’s time to laylo

    https://drinklaylo.com/collections/all

    Happy to recommend the Vulcanico

    Cheers 🥂
  • I see 'save Christmas' is back.

    Deja fucking vu...

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    glw said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
    If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    I see 'save Christmas' is back.

    Deja fucking vu...

    To be fair, it was the sodding self styled "amateur scientists" from the media who kept asking questions about it, in which what can you say, yes, no, maybe. You can't win.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    I don't understand why you would ask this question rather than the standard If there were a GE tomorrow how would you vote? I mean, if you are getting a different answer from the usual VI question, it's probably because it's a different question.

    I think it helps for a couple of reasons. It focuses the question on the national outcome. It's important for tactical voting considerations. It combines the question of party and potential PM.

    These are important considerations for predicting the next election, arguably more important than the raw voting intention question when it comes to considering whether all those who say Lib Dem, Green or RefUK will end up voting that way or not.
  • Johnson finally being rumbled as the snake oil salesman he really is?

    I'd like to think so. But I am not convinced. Rogue poll?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    glw said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
    If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
    It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.

    It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.

    It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
  • @TheScreamingEagles should be happy to hear that the new MCU TV Series is being linked to one of the greatest Christmas Movies of all time . . . https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-59388069
  • HYUFD said:
    It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Andy_JS said:

    Comment about Bexley by someone on the VoteUK forum:

    "However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting..."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15771/old-bexley-sidcup?page=20

    Didnt @HYUFD tell us it was all fine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:
    It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
    It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.

    On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    glw said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
    If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
    It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.

    It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.

    It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
    Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
  • Was this question asked in this format when Ed Miliband was Leader of the Opposition?

    If so, what were the results at this stage of the electoral cycle?

    I can find some details of the Opinium polls from 2013 on their website, but not the data tables, which is a problem I've faced when trying to look at the pre-2010 polling history.

    Seems absurd mess that the internet is in when it's easier to find a throwaway comment someone made on twitter a decade ago than some nerdy polling data.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
    It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.

    On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
    Not necessarily. Electoral calculus isn’t infallible and assumes uniform swing etc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    glw said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
    If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
    It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.

    It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.

    It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
    Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
    That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.

    I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
  • @bigjohnowls

    Please explain :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Comment about Bexley by someone on the VoteUK forum:

    "However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting..."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15771/old-bexley-sidcup?page=20

    Didnt @HYUFD tell us it was all fine
    It is a by election after 11 years in power, obviously the governing party has to put a lot of effort in to ensure it is secure.

    However nothing I heard on the doorstep suggested anything other than a Tory hold, even with a reduced majority. Indeed on tonight's Opinium swing from GE19 the Tories would still hold Old Bexley and Sidcup with a 28% majority
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Comment about Bexley by someone on the VoteUK forum:

    "However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting..."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15771/old-bexley-sidcup?page=20

    Didnt @HYUFD tell us it was all fine
    It is a by election after 11 years in power, obviously the governing party has to put a lot of effort in to ensure it is secure.

    However nothing I heard on the doorstep suggested anything other than a Tory hold, even with a reduced majority. Indeed even on tonight's Opinium swing from GE19 the Tories would still hold Old Bexley and Sidcup with a 28% majority
    You missed the point.

    "but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting" doesn't match your report at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
    It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.

    On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
    Although if the Opinium poll percentages were matched, Labour would be able to claim legitimacy through having a plurality of the votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Comment about Bexley by someone on the VoteUK forum:

    "However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting..."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15771/old-bexley-sidcup?page=20

    Didnt @HYUFD tell us it was all fine
    It is a by election after 11 years in power, obviously the governing party has to put a lot of effort in to ensure it is secure.

    However nothing I heard on the doorstep suggested anything other than a Tory hold, even with a reduced majority. Indeed even on tonight's Opinium swing from GE19 the Tories would still hold Old Bexley and Sidcup with a 28% majority
    You missed the point.

    "but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting" doesn't match your report at all.
    The report you are quoting sounds like it came from a Reform UK activist given the context of who they are, so I would take it with a pinch of salt. Richard Tice is pushing hard to take Tory votes and frighten CCHQ.

    When I canvassed I got a few undecideds, I did not get a single confirmed Tory to Labour switcher and that was without the BBC pestering along behind me either
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,298
    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very very low next week, unless you have a meeting with 50 representatives from South Africa. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Case rates generally in London are currently lower than in much of the rest of the country. If Omicron is bad, then next week could be the safest time to go to London for several months.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,748
    edited November 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,334

    glw said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
    If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
    It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.

    It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.

    It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
    Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
    Or we are back to flattening the curve so hospitals dont get overwhelmed
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Case rates generally in London are currently lower than in much of the rest of the country. If Omicron is bad, then next week could be the safest time to go to London for several months.
    This morning I went unmasked in to Sainsburys, then for Breakfast, in the town that has 50% of UK omicron cases
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Comment about Bexley by someone on the VoteUK forum:

    "However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting..."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15771/old-bexley-sidcup?page=20

    Didnt @HYUFD tell us it was all fine
    It is a by election after 11 years in power, obviously the governing party has to put a lot of effort in to ensure it is secure.

    However nothing I heard on the doorstep suggested anything other than a Tory hold, even with a reduced majority. Indeed even on tonight's Opinium swing from GE19 the Tories would still hold Old Bexley and Sidcup with a 28% majority
    You missed the point.

    "but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting" doesn't match your report at all.
    Or they are proving their Monarchist (TM @HYUFD) roots by ostracising the BBC in sympathy with the Royals…
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
    It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.

    On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
    And he had a VERY cunning plan to get around that...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    edited November 2021
    This Omicron panic is wearying.

    We’ll find out more sooner or later, but whatever happens all governments can do is delay the inevitable. Everyone’s been jabbed, we’re a long way through boosters, any Omicron-specific booster’s going to be at best several months hence and Delta is running through the population anyway so all these border restrictions and mask rules do is push the same infections back a few days or weeks.

    I’ve always been one for getting the bad stuff out of the way so I say the sooner we all get this new variant through the system the sooner we can get out the other side.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited November 2021

    eek said:

    Omicron Variant sounds alarmingly like someone Boris Johnson went to to school with.

    Sir Omicron Pi was a famous London physician in Anthony Trollope's Barchester saga.
    Wasn't he actually spelt Pie? (very piedantic I know.)
  • Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Come to London. Just take reasonable prudent precautions. Very little Omicron around at the moment 👍
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    glw said:

    Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T

    Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....

    UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
    If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
    It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.

    It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.

    It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
    Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
    That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.

    I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
    There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator

    But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable

    On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,748
    edited November 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    My point @HYUFD was that you’re generally more reliable than some random post on VoteUK
  • Starmer must resign!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. And especially if you are vaccinated.

    Its from those you live with, its having your close friends around whom you sit around for hours, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together. Its having that significant exposure. Its why having a lockdown initially causes a spike in cases.

    Now if Mr Mike Ron is 500% worse than delta, basically everybody is getting it and quickly, unless nobody ever leaves the house.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
    I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids and you don't have all the windows open, you share items, you hug your friends etc.

    Its also why surprising things like gyms aren't anywhere near as bad as people initially thought they would be.

    It also why not cracking on vaccinating kids was an absolute stupid suggestion by the JCVI. They are a major transmission vector.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
    I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids and you don't have all the windows open, you share items, you hug your friends etc.

    Its also why surprising things like gyms aren't anywhere near as bad as people initially thought they would be.
    I’ll back you up. There was early but convincing research from Wuhan which said most transmission was within households
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    Let's hope this turns out to be the case.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    Let's hope this turns out to be the case.

    IT’S BOLLOCKS
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
    Also, without being rude to the lady, she is at the end of the day a GP, she is just going on her anecdotal experience of those that have presented.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
    Also, without being rude to the lady, she is at the end of the day a GP, she is just going on her anecdotal experience of those that have presented.
    Since this is the Winnie-the-Pooh virus, is there any sign of a mad craving for honey?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
    Surely unvaxxed people, especially older unvaxxed people, were in trouble if they caught Covid already, whatever variant it was? The main thing is so far this variant does not seem to be too concerning for the double vaxxed and certainly not for the younger double vaxxed and probably not for the older double vaxxed who have had their boosters either
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
    Also, without being rude to the lady, she is at the end of the day a GP, she is just going on her anecdotal experience of those that have presented.
    Yes, it’s really pathetic data. It’s not much better than me, high on absinthe, saying WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE because of the first vids out of Hubei
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,748
    edited November 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
    I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids.
    I'm not saying home transmission isn't a big deal, what doesn't match what I've read is that you're saying the outside transmission is all about "big crowded places", but IIUC what matters is prolonged contact with bad ventilation, which isn't really about crowds - ie if you're in a business meeting with the windows closed where someone is talking, you're getting a lot of exposure to that person's breath that you wouldn't be getting if you were just both on the same tube train.

    So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
    I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids and you don't have all the windows open, you share items, you hug your friends etc.

    Its also why surprising things like gyms aren't anywhere near as bad as people initially thought they would be.
    I’ll back you up. There was early but convincing research from Wuhan which said most transmission was within households
    Plays into my theory that it was worse up North due to folk touring the street into all the neighbours' houses on a frequent basis.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    "Could Boris Johnson survive another Christmas lockdown?

    A new variant and rising cases across Europe could prompt the Prime Minister to impose harsher restrictions in the UK. Would the public tolerate it?

    By Ben Walker and Valeria Cardi"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2021/11/could-boris-johnson-survive-another-christmas-lockdown
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Starmer must resign!

    Absolutely.

    Also, have the Labour MPs who defected to the Conservatives sent letters to the 1922?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chairwoman of South African Medical Association says Omicron coronavirus variant is causing 'mild disease' and 'no prominent symptoms'
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20

    JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
    Surely unvaxxed people, especially older unvaxxed people, were in trouble if they caught Covid already, whatever variant it was? The main thing is so far this variant does not seem to be too concerning for the double vaxxed and certainly not for the younger double vaxxed
    There are too many variables to give a complete answer. But the increased virality of Omicron means, at least - we think - that it will find almost everyone in the end (probably quite soon). There are maybe 3.5bn people in the world with zero immunity from vax

    Also, we don’t yet know if Omicron can reinfect previous victims of Delta, Alpha. WHO thinks it might
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
    I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids and you don't have all the windows open, you share items, you hug your friends etc.

    Its also why surprising things like gyms aren't anywhere near as bad as people initially thought they would be.
    I’ll back you up. There was early but convincing research from Wuhan which said most transmission was within households
    Plays into my theory that it was worse up North due to folk touring the street into all the neighbours' houses on a frequent basis.
    It is also why the Delta variant spread so incredibly quickly in those Indian communities. Tight communities, larger family networks, with a family member / friend comes back from the "home land", everybody wants to catch up, find out what has been happening etc.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
    I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids and you don't have all the windows open, you share items, you hug your friends etc.

    Its also why surprising things like gyms aren't anywhere near as bad as people initially thought they would be.
    I’ll back you up. There was early but convincing research from Wuhan which said most transmission was within households
    Plays into my theory that it was worse up North due to folk touring the street into all the neighbours' houses on a frequent basis.
    Yep

    Also explains Sweden’s lack of horror. And Japan? Lots of one person households, much less hugging in homes.
  • Hope no one has booked skiing holidays Europe Q1 2022 😡
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Could Boris Johnson survive another Christmas lockdown?

    A new variant and rising cases across Europe could prompt the Prime Minister to impose harsher restrictions in the UK. Would the public tolerate it?

    By Ben Walker and Valeria Cardi"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2021/11/could-boris-johnson-survive-another-christmas-lockdown

    Isn't it more a question of whether the 1922, Covid Recovery Group and the Spartans could tolerate it? They decide whether Johnson faces a leadership challenge.

    There is, imho, a scenario where Johnson comes staggering back from some horrendous session with SAGE and says we need to lockdown from Jan till March and Sunak says 'No - we haven't got the money' and calls for a vote of no confidence within the party.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.

    Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?

    Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
    That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
    If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
    I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.

    One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
    My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
    I don't know where you're getting that from.
    I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids.
    I'm not saying home transmission isn't a big deal, what doesn't match what I've read is that you're saying the outside transmission is all about "big crowded places", but IIUC what matters is prolonged contact with bad ventilation, which isn't really about crowds - ie if you're in a business meeting with the windows closed where someone is talking, you're getting a lot of exposure to that person's breath that you wouldn't be getting if you were just both on the same tube train.

    So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
    The point was on an individual basis and a society basis, that one or two meetings in the grand scheme of things specifically next week, when the new variant is extremely rare, with people who have no connection to Southern Africa, between fully vaxxed people, taking sensible precautions, the "addition" to the spread probability to society is not adding anything. And even in totality of everybody doing specifically under this condition isn't adding in terms of the new variant.

    The immediate seeding and spread will be coming from those who travelled to Southern Africa, passing it on to those they live with, their family, their immediate friends, it will go into schools and those who have to go to out to work into environments where they meet lots of the public.

    We saw exactly the same with Delta, it was pretty much exclusively within the Indian community of a few towns, then those living and interacting with that community, then it spread. Those who had no connection to that and having a meeting in Plymouth wasn't adding anything to this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Hope no one has booked skiing holidays Europe Q1 2022 😡

    Two weeks ago I cancelled my ‘normal’ 3-weeks-in-Thailand-in-January

    And that was before Omicron
This discussion has been closed.