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The poll finding that should rattle Downing Street – politicalbetting.com
The poll finding that should rattle Downing Street – politicalbetting.com
If you were forced to choose, which of these would you prefer?A Labour government led by Keir Starmer: 42%A Conservative government led by Boris Johnson: 36%via @OpiniumResearch, 24-26 Nov
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If so, what were the results at this stage of the electoral cycle?
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
This doesn't look good for the PM either.
This rule change was not in reaction to the Omicron variant, since it came before that variant was discovered. Nor was it a reaction to a sharp increase in cases, or deaths. I suspect that it came out of worry that, with Christmas approaching, and worse weather making people spend more time indoors, the virus would come back.
Here's the press release, for those looking for details: https://kingcounty.gov/elected/executive/constantine/news/release/2021/September/16-proof-of-vaccination-negative-test.aspx. They cite scientific advice and estimates.
(In general, Washington state has done relatively well against the virus, with a death rate per million (1,216) half that of the national average. And I say that as someone who didn't vote for our current leaders.)
"However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting..."
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15771/old-bexley-sidcup?page=20
That can still be pretty bloody scary. Covid the Original bubbled under the surface for a while before exploding. Ditto Delta
Nature of exponential growth. You don’t notice it until you do, and then, boom
But the Valneva cancellation looked wrong then and even more so now.
All I want to be
Is a million miles from here
Seriously, fuck it. Drink claret.
The invasion of France on Wednesday week will confound your assertion.
After a very agreeable day with my older child, I am quite content
The level of immunity from vaccination and previous infection really slowed it down.
27/11 37,218
20/11 22,678
13/11 14,646
06/11 9,605
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
A suspicious person might wonder if there had been any South African rugby teams in France this autumn
The biggest picture is that, since about June, a 10 Conservative point lead (C43L33) has become a 1 point Labour lead (C36L37).
If you take the wobbles on that trend seriously, the current change in fortunes looks like it kicked off around the beginning of October. At that point, the Conservatives had a fairly stable 5 point lead and that gap has closed in fairly short order since then.
I don't know how much I believe the October effect- the wobbles are fairly small. But if so, the start of October doesn't really link to all the "events" that have dragged down the government's reputation recently. The only one where the timings work is the UC cut. That feels too neat to be true, though it matches the idea that more people notice the pounds in their pocket than the carnival of news.
Nom is 2.2 from 2.1
Not been following the news. What are the restrictions?
Son is working in retail in London and, apparently, working on Xmas Eve and then again on the Monday, despite it being a Bank Holiday. So either he spends Xmas alone away from the family or I have to spend most of the Xmas hols on the motorway with him. Annoying. But it will be the most time I will spend with him all year and wanting all the family together - even if it is only for a day or two - is something I want very badly indeed. So if I have to spend time on the M6 so be it.
I don't like masks. But spare a thought for those like my son, who do have to wear them and are exposed to lots of people all day every day. That is how my other son caught Covid in January - the transmissible and infectious variant - and passed it to my husband, in part because his employers were not good at following all the precautions. At least Eldest Son's current employers are a bit more sensible. Even so there is a risk.
And as for my poor Daughter .....
I know I probably shouldn't say it but fuck China, its vile regime, its labs, its lies, its indifference to the human suffering it has caused its own people and others, its arrogance and aggression. The world would be a lot better off without China - under the regime it has had for decades now - in it.
The know infected will be closely studied.
https://drinklaylo.com/collections/all
Happy to recommend the Vulcanico
Cheers 🥂
Deja fucking vu...
These are important considerations for predicting the next election, arguably more important than the raw voting intention question when it comes to considering whether all those who say Lib Dem, Green or RefUK will end up voting that way or not.
I'd like to think so. But I am not convinced. Rogue poll?
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
It would give:
Conservatives 292
Labour 275
So Starmer would become PM but it would be LD and SNP MPs putting him in No 10
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1464685458609344514?s=20
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=36&LAB=38&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
Seems absurd mess that the internet is in when it's easier to find a throwaway comment someone made on twitter a decade ago than some nerdy polling data.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
Please explain
However nothing I heard on the doorstep suggested anything other than a Tory hold, even with a reduced majority. Indeed on tonight's Opinium swing from GE19 the Tories would still hold Old Bexley and Sidcup with a 28% majority
"but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting" doesn't match your report at all.
When I canvassed I got a few undecideds, I did not get a single confirmed Tory to Labour switcher and that was without the BBC pestering along behind me either
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
We’ll find out more sooner or later, but whatever happens all governments can do is delay the inevitable. Everyone’s been jabbed, we’re a long way through boosters, any Omicron-specific booster’s going to be at best several months hence and Delta is running through the population anyway so all these border restrictions and mask rules do is push the same infections back a few days or weeks.
I’ve always been one for getting the bad stuff out of the way so I say the sooner we all get this new variant through the system the sooner we can get out the other side.
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1464731705764302855?s=20
Its from those you live with, its having your close friends around whom you sit around for hours, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together. Its having that significant exposure. Its why having a lockdown initially causes a spike in cases.
Now if Mr Mike Ron is 500% worse than delta, basically everybody is getting it and quickly, unless nobody ever leaves the house.
Its also why surprising things like gyms aren't anywhere near as bad as people initially thought they would be.
It also why not cracking on vaccinating kids was an absolute stupid suggestion by the JCVI. They are a major transmission vector.
IT’S BOLLOCKS
So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
A new variant and rising cases across Europe could prompt the Prime Minister to impose harsher restrictions in the UK. Would the public tolerate it?
By Ben Walker and Valeria Cardi"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2021/11/could-boris-johnson-survive-another-christmas-lockdown
Also, have the Labour MPs who defected to the Conservatives sent letters to the 1922?
Also, we don’t yet know if Omicron can reinfect previous victims of Delta, Alpha. WHO thinks it might
Also explains Sweden’s lack of horror. And Japan? Lots of one person households, much less hugging in homes.
There is, imho, a scenario where Johnson comes staggering back from some horrendous session with SAGE and says we need to lockdown from Jan till March and Sunak says 'No - we haven't got the money' and calls for a vote of no confidence within the party.
The immediate seeding and spread will be coming from those who travelled to Southern Africa, passing it on to those they live with, their family, their immediate friends, it will go into schools and those who have to go to out to work into environments where they meet lots of the public.
We saw exactly the same with Delta, it was pretty much exclusively within the Indian community of a few towns, then those living and interacting with that community, then it spread. Those who had no connection to that and having a meeting in Plymouth wasn't adding anything to this.
And that was before Omicron