It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.
On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
I can understand your obvious indignation. Conservatives significantly more seats yet possibly not in power.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
I don't know where you're getting that from.
I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids.
I'm not saying home transmission isn't a big deal, what doesn't match what I've read is that you're saying the outside transmission is all about "big crowded places", but IIUC what matters is prolonged contact with bad ventilation, which isn't really about crowds - ie if you're in a business meeting with the windows closed where someone is talking, you're getting a lot of exposure to that person's breath that you wouldn't be getting if you were just both on the same tube train.
So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
The point was on an individual basis and a society basis, that one or two meetings in the grand scheme of things next week, when the new variant is extremely rare, with people who have no connection to Southern Africa, between fully vaxxed people, taking sensible precautions, the "addition" to the spread probability to society is not adding anything. And even in totality of everybody doing this isn't adding.
The seeding and spread will come from those who travelled to Southern Africa, passing it on to those they live with, their immediate friends and those who have to go to out to work.
There’s also the very potent argument that people who have tolerated this shit for nearly 2 years will not tolerate it any more. What is life if it is spent cowering in fear, never interacting?
I’ve got friends who were quite obedient lockdowners and maskwearers - even through the hell of last winter - who are now saying No. Enough. I’ve had my jabs, I’ve washed my hands. That’s it. If I die, I die
Let the fearful shrink. Let everyone else choose. That must be the endpoint
It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.
On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
No - Ramsay Mac was also Prime Minister 1931-5 as "National Labour" despite a huge Tory majority in the Commons.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
I don't know where you're getting that from.
I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids.
I'm not saying home transmission isn't a big deal, what doesn't match what I've read is that you're saying the outside transmission is all about "big crowded places", but IIUC what matters is prolonged contact with bad ventilation, which isn't really about crowds - ie if you're in a business meeting with the windows closed where someone is talking, you're getting a lot of exposure to that person's breath that you wouldn't be getting if you were just both on the same tube train.
So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
The point was on an individual basis and a society basis, that one or two meetings in the grand scheme of things next week, when the new variant is extremely rare, with people who have no connection to Southern Africa, between fully vaxxed people, taking sensible precautions, the "addition" to the spread probability to society is not adding anything. And even in totality of everybody doing this isn't adding.
The seeding and spread will come from those who travelled to Southern Africa, passing it on to those they live with, their immediate friends and those who have to go to out to work.
The seeding will come from people who travelled to Africa (as far as we know) but not the spread - once they've passed it on to their immediate friends and colleagues you're at enough distance from anybody you can connect to Africa that the correct response is "anybody could have it", and at that point (as far as we know) the things that have prevented spread so far when tried will also prevent spread.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
I don't know where you're getting that from.
I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids.
I'm not saying home transmission isn't a big deal, what doesn't match what I've read is that you're saying the outside transmission is all about "big crowded places", but IIUC what matters is prolonged contact with bad ventilation, which isn't really about crowds - ie if you're in a business meeting with the windows closed where someone is talking, you're getting a lot of exposure to that person's breath that you wouldn't be getting if you were just both on the same tube train.
So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
The point was on an individual basis and a society basis, that one or two meetings in the grand scheme of things next week, when the new variant is extremely rare, with people who have no connection to Southern Africa, between fully vaxxed people, taking sensible precautions, the "addition" to the spread probability to society is not adding anything. And even in totality of everybody doing this isn't adding.
The seeding and spread will come from those who travelled to Southern Africa, passing it on to those they live with, their immediate friends and those who have to go to out to work.
The seeding will come from people who travelled to Africa (as far as we know) but not the spread - once they've passed it on to their immediate friends and colleagues you're at enough distance from anybody you can connect to Africa that the correct response is "anybody could have it", and at that point (as far as we know) the things that have prevented spread so far when tried will also prevent spread.
I think you are misunderstanding my point. Specifically next week, those totally detached from anybody who has been anywhere near Southern Africa basically won't be adding to the spread if they meet people who also have no connection under all the circumstances given.
It will take a week or two to circulate the family and friends, then the kids and the work places of those that have. That is exactly what happened with Delta in the UK.
JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
Why should we care about that?
If the unvaxxed get sick, that's the consequence of their choices.
JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
Why should we care about that?
If the unvaxxed get sick, that's the consequence of their choices.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
I don't know where you're getting that from.
I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids.
I'm not saying home transmission isn't a big deal, what doesn't match what I've read is that you're saying the outside transmission is all about "big crowded places", but IIUC what matters is prolonged contact with bad ventilation, which isn't really about crowds - ie if you're in a business meeting with the windows closed where someone is talking, you're getting a lot of exposure to that person's breath that you wouldn't be getting if you were just both on the same tube train.
So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
The point was on an individual basis and a society basis, that one or two meetings in the grand scheme of things next week, when the new variant is extremely rare, with people who have no connection to Southern Africa, between fully vaxxed people, taking sensible precautions, the "addition" to the spread probability to society is not adding anything. And even in totality of everybody doing this isn't adding.
The seeding and spread will come from those who travelled to Southern Africa, passing it on to those they live with, their immediate friends and those who have to go to out to work.
The seeding will come from people who travelled to Africa (as far as we know) but not the spread - once they've passed it on to their immediate friends and colleagues you're at enough distance from anybody you can connect to Africa that the correct response is "anybody could have it", and at that point (as far as we know) the things that have prevented spread so far when tried will also prevent spread.
I think you are misunderstanding my point. Specifically next week, those totally detached from that won't be adding to the spread. It will take a week or two to circulate the family and friends, then the kids. That is exactly what happened with Delta in the UK.
The variant has just been discovered, it hasn't just been invented. We don't know how long it's already been circulating in the UK or how much of it there is.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
I don't know where you're getting that from.
I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids.
I'm not saying home transmission isn't a big deal, what doesn't match what I've read is that you're saying the outside transmission is all about "big crowded places", but IIUC what matters is prolonged contact with bad ventilation, which isn't really about crowds - ie if you're in a business meeting with the windows closed where someone is talking, you're getting a lot of exposure to that person's breath that you wouldn't be getting if you were just both on the same tube train.
So while there's a potentially dangerous variant that we don't yet know the correct response to, move that meeting to Zoom unless it really, really has to be done in meatspace for some reason.
The point was on an individual basis and a society basis, that one or two meetings in the grand scheme of things next week, when the new variant is extremely rare, with people who have no connection to Southern Africa, between fully vaxxed people, taking sensible precautions, the "addition" to the spread probability to society is not adding anything. And even in totality of everybody doing this isn't adding.
The seeding and spread will come from those who travelled to Southern Africa, passing it on to those they live with, their immediate friends and those who have to go to out to work.
The seeding will come from people who travelled to Africa (as far as we know) but not the spread - once they've passed it on to their immediate friends and colleagues you're at enough distance from anybody you can connect to Africa that the correct response is "anybody could have it", and at that point (as far as we know) the things that have prevented spread so far when tried will also prevent spread.
I think you are misunderstanding my point. Specifically next week, those totally detached from that won't be adding to the spread. It will take a week or two to circulate the family and friends, then the kids. That is exactly what happened with Delta in the UK.
The variant has just been discovered, it hasn't just been invented. We don't know how long it's already been circulating in the UK or how much of it there is.
It definitely here, but if it was here in more than small numbers, the UK monitoring is such they would know, especially as it has an extremely visible marker that can immediately be recognized. Even within the 3 days, there is such a massive level of testing and monitoring, we would be seeing a lot more than 2 cases if it had escaped much wider than the immediate contacts and was widely circulating in the population.
Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it. We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.
Some actual data amidst the noise. Backs up what I posted yesterday
‘There is a faint signal that #Omicron may not just be a mild disease! Looking at the hospital data for Gauteng Province in South Africa, there has been a significant increase in Covid admissions for epi weeks 46 and 47. Week 47 is from the 21 to 28 Nov and therefore the data is’
‘not complete yet. This includes both the private and public sector, South Africa has nice consolidated test and hospital data across both sectors. Courtesy @nicd_sa’
It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.
On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
No - Ramsay Mac was also Prime Minister 1931-5 as "National Labour" despite a huge Tory majority in the Commons.
Macdonald was no longer Labour leader then though, in fact he had been expelled from the Labour Party for pursuing spending cuts and Labour was now led by Arthur Henderson.
The official Labour Party was the main opposition, Macdonald's National Labour party were coalition partners of the Tories
Some actual data amidst the noise. Backs up what I posted yesterday
‘There is a faint signal that #Omicron may not just be a mild disease! Looking at the hospital data for Gauteng Province in South Africa, there has been a significant increase in Covid admissions for epi weeks 46 and 47. Week 47 is from the 21 to 28 Nov and therefore the data is’
‘not complete yet. This includes both the private and public sector, South Africa has nice consolidated test and hospital data across both sectors. Courtesy @nicd_sa’
The big unknown is obviously vaccination status....When delta hit, vaccination rates in the UK Indian communities where it seeded was low and thus we saw big spikes especially in lower people. If you went on just rate, you would conclude we were all going to hell in a hand basket.
A widely-shared quote from a South African doctor, saying Omicron causes only mild symptoms, is being taken out of context. She was referring to a small group of young, healthy people and warned of severe disease in other groups
JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
Why should we care about that?
If the unvaxxed get sick, that's the consequence of their choices.
Yes, I entirely agree
Well, not quite. They fill the hospitals and stop others getting other treatments and their stats mean that politicians start saying 'something must be done' etc etc.
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
A widely-shared quote from a South African doctor, saying Omicron causes only mild symptoms, is being taken out of context. She was referring to a small group of young, healthy people and warned of severe disease in other groups
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
The expert on DW said 500%, not 50%, more infectious......
A widely-shared quote from a South African doctor, saying Omicron causes only mild symptoms, is being taken out of context. She was referring to a small group of young, healthy people and warned of severe disease in other groups
She is talking anecdotally about ~20 patients who have come to see a GP, nobody should be writing a story on potential of new variant one way or another on the basis of that, full stop.
JFC I’ve debunked this multiple times. She didn’t say this. She has a small sample of healthy young vaxxed omicron Covid sufferers who are doing ok. She also says older or sicker unvaxxed people are very possibly in big trouble
Why should we care about that?
If the unvaxxed get sick, that's the consequence of their choices.
Yes, I entirely agree
Well, not quite. They fill the hospitals and stop others getting other treatments and their stats mean that politicians start saying 'something must be done' etc etc.
Then make them pay for their hospital treatment. Upfront
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
The expert on DW said 500%, not 50%, more infectious......
What does that even mean!!! Is it the rapidity with which it became the dominant strain. That was fast - it established on the back of a waning Delta strain at the very start of a summer rise which numerically very much mirrors November.
I'm not sure 'speed of asserting dominance' is epidemiologically meaningful.
A widely-shared quote from a South African doctor, saying Omicron causes only mild symptoms, is being taken out of context. She was referring to a small group of young, healthy people and warned of severe disease in other groups
She is talking anecdotally about ~20 patients who have come to see a GP, nobody should be writing a story on potential of new variant one way or another on the basis of that, full stop.
As I pointed out on this site, this morning. It’s drivel. And yet it is now all over the Net
I guess people are desperate to believe good news, however unlikely. Even tho 2 minutes of astute googling showed that it is nonsense
Mori gives Truss an abysmal -24% rating with voters on whether she would make a good PM, compared to -21% for Boris, -16% for Starmer and -9% for Sunak.
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
The expert on DW said 500%, not 50%, more infectious......
One of the earlier sources of the 500% figure is a professional SA epidemiologist. It cannot be dismissed out of hand
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
The expert on DW said 500%, not 50%, more infectious......
What does that even mean!!! Is it the rapidity with which it became the dominant strain. That was fast - it established on the back of a waning Delta strain at the very start of a summer rise which numerically very much mirrors November.
I'm not sure 'speed of asserting dominance' is epidemiologically meaningful.
It is the standard and well understood R0 value i.e the base reproductive rate. The same as what does Delta being 80% more infectious than original COVID. R0 of original variant ~3, Delta, ~5, they are estimating this could be 15-16, basically the same as measles.
This is very much finger in the air estimate, but the take-away is the belief is is f##king infectious, far more than the original strain or even Delta, and that it appears to escape previous immunity to allow much more frequent reinfection. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter if it is 100% or 200% or 500% more infectious if it escapes previous immunity and vaccines, Delta ripped through unvaccinated populations like wild fire anyway.
Not been following the news. What are the restrictions?
Son is working in retail in London and, apparently, working on Xmas Eve and then again on the Monday, despite it being a Bank Holiday. So either he spends Xmas alone away from the family or I have to spend most of the Xmas hols on the motorway with him. Annoying. But it will be the most time I will spend with him all year and wanting all the family together - even if it is only for a day or two - is something I want very badly indeed. So if I have to spend time on the M6 so be it.
I don't like masks. But spare a thought for those like my son, who do have to wear them and are exposed to lots of people all day every day. That is how my other son caught Covid in January - the transmissible and infectious variant - and passed it to my husband, in part because his employers were not good at following all the precautions. At least Eldest Son's current employers are a bit more sensible. Even so there is a risk.
And as for my poor Daughter .....
I know I probably shouldn't say it but fuck China, its vile regime, its labs, its lies, its indifference to the human suffering it has caused its own people and others, its arrogance and aggression. The world would be a lot better off without China - under the regime it has had for decades now - in it.
Would you really wish a billion or so people out of existence ?
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
The expert on DW said 500%, not 50%, more infectious......
What does that even mean!!! Is it the rapidity with which it became the dominant strain. That was fast - it established on the back of a waning Delta strain at the very start of a summer rise which numerically very much mirrors November.
I'm not sure 'speed of asserting dominance' is epidemiologically meaningful.
It is the standard and well understood R0 value i.e the base reproductive rate. The same as what does Delta being 80% more infectious than original COVID. R0 of original variant ~3, Delta, ~5, they are estimating this could be 15-16, basically the same as measles.
This is very much finger in the air estimate, but the take-away is the belief is is f##king infectious, far more than the original strain or even Delta, and that it appears to escape previous immunity to allow much more frequent reinfection.
‘The 500% model is based on latest sequencing data out of South Africa over time- It is important to note that there is limited data at the moment, and it is very possible that more data will reveal a slower takeover. With all my heart I hope that is the case.’
See his last 30 or so tweets. I wish they weren’t scary, but they are
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. And especially if you are vaccinated.
Its from those you live with, its having your close friends around whom you sit around for hours, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together. Its having that significant exposure. Its why having a lockdown initially causes a spike in cases.
Now if Mr Mike Ron is 500% worse than delta, basically everybody is getting it and quickly, unless nobody ever leaves the house.
I thought it was the relatively long incubation time that caused cases to rise after lockdowns.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
Thank you for the review. It's one of my favourite book series as well, so have also been dreading it to some degree, and have not even watched the episodes yet. Also worried that I'd heard virtually nothing about it, including when it was coming out, and thus whether they have put much resource behind it - given we've been hearing about the billions they've spent on LotR and then this practically sneaks out the back door.
If it is a success it could sustain a plot for a long long time (even cutting out, as they will have to, books worth of side plots and side characters), so I hope for all their sakes it does.
More surprising to me was the audible email I received that they've re-released the audiobook, paying Rosamund Pike to perform it. If they manage to contract her to do the rest of them that's around 35-40 hours a time for 14 books, a lot for a fairly high profile actor.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. And especially if you are vaccinated.
Its from those you live with, its having your close friends around whom you sit around for hours, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together. Its having that significant exposure. Its why having a lockdown initially causes a spike in cases.
Now if Mr Mike Ron is 500% worse than delta, basically everybody is getting it and quickly, unless nobody ever leaves the house.
I thought it was the relatively long incubation time that caused cases to rise after lockdowns.
My understanding it is both, the incubation plus you just locked everybody together in a house all day, when normally they would only be spending a few hours in each others company, so you massively increase the chance of transmitting it, giving you a bump in the first week.
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
The expert on DW said 500%, not 50%, more infectious......
What does that even mean!!! Is it the rapidity with which it became the dominant strain. That was fast - it established on the back of a waning Delta strain at the very start of a summer rise which numerically very much mirrors November.
I'm not sure 'speed of asserting dominance' is epidemiologically meaningful.
It is the standard and well understood R0 value i.e the base reproductive rate. The same as what does Delta being 80% more infectious than original COVID. R0 of original variant ~3, Delta, ~5, they are estimating this could be 15-16, basically the same as measles.
This is very much finger in the air estimate, but the take-away is the belief is is f##king infectious, far more than the original strain or even Delta, and that it appears to escape previous immunity to allow much more frequent reinfection. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter if it is 100% or 200% or 500% more infectious if it escapes previous immunity and vaccines, Delta ripped through unvaccinated populations like wild fire anyway.
I know we're squeezing the virus hard with vaccines, so the potential for a rapid arms race is there, but a few days' pace of outcompetition Vs Delta from initially low numbers seems to be a base of sand on which to build even a putative 'infectious as measles in one jump' argument.
Credible scientist of not, I can't help thinking this is a loosely worded interview claim that will turn out to be bollocks..
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Israel reports 4 new suspected Omicron cases, including 3 people with no travel history https://t.co/GdQqCoxU5T
Its here, its there, its every f##king where, ohhhhh Mike Ron....
UK, Israel, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy so far outside of Africa. I expect that we will see cases in a huge number of countries over the next week.
If it's everywhere already then it cant be that big of a deal
It too early to say that. It can be in every country, but in the seeding stage. It seems because of the strange result it gives on one particular PCR test it has been picked up very early compared to other variants.
It could actually be an indication for the worst. Its spread incredibly quickly across the world, despite only just come about, because it is so infectious and kicking Delta in the nuts. Or it could be that it has mutated itself into something that doesn't actually work that well.
It is clear from the reaction across the world that the scientists believe it is the former.
Well if its so infectious that lockdown isn’t going to do anything then ultimately we should just keep calm and carry on because what other choice is there?
That is exactly what I posted on the previous thread. An expert was on DW news saying that early estimates are that it is 500% more infectious than Delta, and if that is true even lockdowns won't work.
I posted ultimately we are all getting it at some point, then recover or you die, and being vaccinated (plus the new drugs coming online) should hopefully still radically reduce your chance of the second. Even without the new teenage mutant ninja turtle variety, I have come this to conclusion quite a while ago.
There’s enough early evidence to hazard a confident guess that it’s highly transmissible. More than Delta, probably. As you say, the reax of boffins and pols around the world are a helpful indicator
But we just don’t know the severity or the immune-escape, and any guesses are less valuable
On these known unknowns, the fate of the world depends. And we will know in 2 or 3 weeks
One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
The expert on DW said 500%, not 50%, more infectious......
What does that even mean!!! Is it the rapidity with which it became the dominant strain. That was fast - it established on the back of a waning Delta strain at the very start of a summer rise which numerically very much mirrors November.
I'm not sure 'speed of asserting dominance' is epidemiologically meaningful.
It is the standard and well understood R0 value i.e the base reproductive rate. The same as what does Delta being 80% more infectious than original COVID. R0 of original variant ~3, Delta, ~5, they are estimating this could be 15-16, basically the same as measles.
This is very much finger in the air estimate, but the take-away is the belief is is f##king infectious, far more than the original strain or even Delta, and that it appears to escape previous immunity to allow much more frequent reinfection. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter if it is 100% or 200% or 500% more infectious if it escapes previous immunity and vaccines, Delta ripped through unvaccinated populations like wild fire anyway.
I know we're squeezing the virus hard with vaccines, so the potential for a rapid arms race is there, but a few days' pace of outcompetition Vs Delta from initially low numbers seems to be a base of sand on which to build even a putative 'infectious as measles in one jump' argument.
Credible scientist of not, I can't help thinking this is a loosely worded interview claim that will turn out to be bollocks..
It is also based upon the known properties of some of the mutations that have already been assessed. The way world governments have reacted, it clearly isn't just some random on Zoom being given a platform on a news channel that thinks this.
As I say, it is the mutations common to Beta variant, that they already known previous infection and current vaccines are poor against, even if it doesn't have an R0 of something crazy like 15.
Mori gives Truss an abysmal -24% rating with voters on whether she would make a good PM, compared to -21% for Boris, -16% for Starmer and -9% for Sunak.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
Thank you for the review. It's one of my favourite book series as well, so have also been dreading it to some degree, and have not even watched the episodes yet. Also worried that I'd heard virtually nothing about it, including when it was coming out, and thus whether they have put much resource behind it - given we've been hearing about the billions they've spent on LotR and then this practically sneaks out the back door.
If it is a success it could sustain a plot for a long long time (even cutting out, as they will have to, books worth of side plots and side characters), so I hope for all their sakes it does.
More surprising to me was the audible email I received that they've re-released the audiobook, paying Rosamund Pike to perform it. If they manage to contract her to do the rest of them that's around 35-40 hours a time for 14 books, a lot for a fairly high profile actor.
Yeah I was surprised too not to have heard much about it, but it came up suggested on my Sky Q box despite it being an Amazon show.
Took a couple of episodes to really find its feet, but by the end of the most recent (4th) episode I'm very optimistic they've got the chemistry right.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Book 6 was my favourite, but it's rare for most shows to get 6 years so I won't hold out hope of getting that far, given the rather low key release and, despite its genre profile, lower name recognition.
Of course, ratings for the first season of Game of Thrones were not actually fantastic, it built from there to be a phenomenom, so there's always hope.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Book 6 was my favourite, but it's rare for most shows to get 6 years so I won't hold out hope of getting that far, given the rather low key release and, despite its genre profile, lower name recognition.
Of course, ratings for the first season of Game of Thrones were not actually fantastic, it built from there to be a phenomenom, so there's always hope.
Amazon are a bit strange like that. They don't seem to pump their shows and seem to persist a bit longer than Netflix, I presume because they have infinite money and a much smaller catalogue e.g. I doubt Bosch has ever pulled in mega audiences, even though its a solid show, but they filmed 7 seasons.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No. And there's supposed to be another after that.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing more yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
He hasn't started the last book yet. Still writing the penultimate book.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
I am sure the absolute mega cheque for royalties he got from HBO didn't help that word rate. I think I would have sketched out the plot, buggered off to a Caribbean island and left a team of writer to finish it off.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Book 6 was my favourite, but it's rare for most shows to get 6 years so I won't hold out hope of getting that far, given the rather low key release and, despite its genre profile, lower name recognition.
Of course, ratings for the first season of Game of Thrones were not actually fantastic, it built from there to be a phenomenom, so there's always hope.
Amazon are a bit strange like that. They don't seem to pump their shows and seem to persist a bit longer than Netflix, I presume because they have infinite money and a much smaller catalogue e.g. I doubt Bosch has ever pulled in mega audiences, even though its a solid show, but they filmed 7 seasons.
I like Bosch. It's now in the weird position where it is about to have a 'spinoff', on some other platform I think, still starring Bosch, so not really a spinoff.
It would be good if they essentially commit to 3-4 years for big projects, as they have the money to see if that pays off. There's quite a few shows which grew their audience over time, or were not super well regarded in first seasons but became mega hits.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Book 6 was my favourite, but it's rare for most shows to get 6 years so I won't hold out hope of getting that far, given the rather low key release and, despite its genre profile, lower name recognition.
Of course, ratings for the first season of Game of Thrones were not actually fantastic, it built from there to be a phenomenom, so there's always hope.
Book 6 was my favourite too, though I'm biased as it was the first book of the series I got.
I was given that book for my birthday by a friend who didn't realise it wasn't a standalone book. I saw that it was book 6 of series so got books 1 - 5 from the library before reading 6. Was confused when I got to the end of the book, as I didn't realise until I finished it that it wasn't the end so had to wait a year or two for the next one to be released . . . then about another fifteen or so for the series to be finished.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Book 6 was my favourite, but it's rare for most shows to get 6 years so I won't hold out hope of getting that far, given the rather low key release and, despite its genre profile, lower name recognition.
Of course, ratings for the first season of Game of Thrones were not actually fantastic, it built from there to be a phenomenom, so there's always hope.
Amazon are a bit strange like that. They don't seem to pump their shows and seem to persist a bit longer than Netflix, I presume because they have infinite money and a much smaller catalogue e.g. I doubt Bosch has ever pulled in mega audiences, even though its a solid show, but they filmed 7 seasons.
I like Bosch. It's now in the weird position where it is about to have a 'spinoff', on some other platform I think, still starring Bosch, so not really a spinoff.
It would be good if they essentially commit to 3-4 years for big projects, as they have the money to see if that pays off. There's quite a few shows which grew their audience over time, or were not super well regarded in first seasons but became mega hits.
That's a really weird decision. Its IMDB TV, which is owned by.....Amazon....I believe it is all the books from when he has left being a police officer and he is a P.I.
Might be a blessing if everyone could just hurry up and get it. We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.
A friend living with a husband and two children, all down with it simultaneously, probably wouldn't agree. Another says that the situation at her (sick) daughter's school is insane, with staff and pupils both going down like ninepins - little serious education is taking place because of lack of continuity.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No. And there's supposed to be another after that.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
He's 73 now and the number of projects he is involved in seems to be growing still.
By all accounts he's having a great time with it all, and good luck to him, but the book series won't be finished.
Isn't it more a question of whether the 1922, Covid Recovery Group and the Spartans could tolerate it? They decide whether Johnson faces a leadership challenge.
There is, imho, a scenario where Johnson comes staggering back from some horrendous session with SAGE and says we need to lockdown from Jan till March and Sunak says 'No - we haven't got the money' and calls for a vote of no confidence within the party.
I don't think so. It will only happen if hospiralisation is rocketing up, and in that situation people (MPs and voters alike) will still rally round the PM and do what he says. Any reckoning would come later.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No. And there's supposed to be another after that.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
I got the first book at the airport while going on holiday, then the second and had to wait for the third to be released. [Edit: I picked up Game of Thrones because it was endorsed by Robert Jordan on the front cover]
When the third was released I picked it up at the bookstore then had a second thought and put it back down. I decided after Wheel of Time I didn't want to wait two years between books again and would wait a few years before the series was finished before restarting the series.
Could never have imagined then that a decade later only one more book had subsequently been released - or only two more in the subsequent two decades.
Sadly there's a big part of me that thinks that the series is never going to be finished until someone like Brandon Sanderson finishes it posthumously, as I just don't have confidence GRRM is ever going to do so himself. Though Jordan knew he was dying and worked as long as he could putting his affairs in order so that it could be finished posthumously (prior to his diagnosis he used to say that if anything happened to him then he wanted all his notes burning).
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No. And there's supposed to be another after that.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
He's 73 now and the number of projects he is involved in seems to be growing still.
By all accounts he's having a great time with it all, and good luck to him, but the book series won't be finished.
Understandably a bit touchy about people worried he'll 'Do a [Robert] Jordan' and not make it.
Isn't it more a question of whether the 1922, Covid Recovery Group and the Spartans could tolerate it? They decide whether Johnson faces a leadership challenge.
There is, imho, a scenario where Johnson comes staggering back from some horrendous session with SAGE and says we need to lockdown from Jan till March and Sunak says 'No - we haven't got the money' and calls for a vote of no confidence within the party.
I don't think so. It will only happen if hospiralisation is rocketing up, and in that situation people (MPs and voters alike) will still rally round the PM and do what he says. Any reckoning would come later.
And how will we pay for another round of lockdown? Another £10billion on debt? To be inflated away?
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Case rates generally in London are currently lower than in much of the rest of the country. If Omicron is bad, then next week could be the safest time to go to London for several months.
That's probably right, though clearly it's a higher risk than staying in Cumbria. I'm triple-jabbed so am planning to go to a meeting in Westminster Hall, but will cancel if Omicron takes off.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No. And there's supposed to be another after that.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
He's 73 now and the number of projects he is involved in seems to be growing still.
By all accounts he's having a great time with it all, and good luck to him, but the book series won't be finished.
Understandably a bit touchy about people worried he'll 'Do a [Robert] Jordan' and not make it.
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No. And there's supposed to be another after that.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
He's 73 now and the number of projects he is involved in seems to be growing still.
By all accounts he's having a great time with it all, and good luck to him, but the book series won't be finished.
Understandably a bit touchy about people worried he'll 'Do a [Robert] Jordan' and not make it.
He’s the Remainer c*nt that literally drafted article 50 and then tried to get Brexit overturned. An odious old scrotum of a man. A Trumpite with a posh British accent. How surprising you quote him approvingly
Not been following the news. What are the restrictions?
Son is working in retail in London and, apparently, working on Xmas Eve and then again on the Monday, despite it being a Bank Holiday. So either he spends Xmas alone away from the family or I have to spend most of the Xmas hols on the motorway with him. Annoying. But it will be the most time I will spend with him all year and wanting all the family together - even if it is only for a day or two - is something I want very badly indeed. So if I have to spend time on the M6 so be it.
I don't like masks. But spare a thought for those like my son, who do have to wear them and are exposed to lots of people all day every day. That is how my other son caught Covid in January - the transmissible and infectious variant - and passed it to my husband, in part because his employers were not good at following all the precautions. At least Eldest Son's current employers are a bit more sensible. Even so there is a risk.
And as for my poor Daughter .....
I know I probably shouldn't say it but fuck China, its vile regime, its labs, its lies, its indifference to the human suffering it has caused its own people and others, its arrogance and aggression. The world would be a lot better off without China - under the regime it has had for decades now - in it.
Would you really wish a billion or so people out of existence ?
The key phrase is "under the regime it has had for decades now".
China under Communism has been responsible for mass death, famine, destruction and terror. It is perpetrating genocide on the Uighurs now. A load of consumer goods do not weigh in the balance.
The Chinese regime is evil. We'd all be better off without it.
Not been following the news. What are the restrictions?
Son is working in retail in London and, apparently, working on Xmas Eve and then again on the Monday, despite it being a Bank Holiday. So either he spends Xmas alone away from the family or I have to spend most of the Xmas hols on the motorway with him. Annoying. But it will be the most time I will spend with him all year and wanting all the family together - even if it is only for a day or two - is something I want very badly indeed. So if I have to spend time on the M6 so be it.
I don't like masks. But spare a thought for those like my son, who do have to wear them and are exposed to lots of people all day every day. That is how my other son caught Covid in January - the transmissible and infectious variant - and passed it to my husband, in part because his employers were not good at following all the precautions. At least Eldest Son's current employers are a bit more sensible. Even so there is a risk.
And as for my poor Daughter .....
I know I probably shouldn't say it but fuck China, its vile regime, its labs, its lies, its indifference to the human suffering it has caused its own people and others, its arrogance and aggression. The world would be a lot better off without China - under the regime it has had for decades now - in it.
Would you really wish a billion or so people out of existence ?
The key phrase is "under the regime it has had for decades now".
China under Communism has been responsible for mass death, famine, destruction and terror. It is perpetrating genocide on the Uighurs now. A load of consumer goods do not weigh in the balance.
The Chinese regime is evil. We'd all be better off without it.
Absolutely. It’s like saying we’d be better off - in 1940 - if all the Nazis died overnight. Unfortunately true
Coming back on topic, I stand by the idea that BJ has about 4 5 months to turn things around, I reckon there is a good chance however he will jump before being pushed (esp if a publisher/agent waves an enormous cheque under his nose).
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
I've never read WoT, but Mrs J has. She is a bit of a connoisseur of sci-fi/fantasy, and she hates the books.
Just shows how different people can have different views on the same art.
Coming back on topic, I stand by the idea that BJ has about 4 5 months to turn things around, I reckon there is a good chance however he will jump before being pushed (esp if a publisher/agent waves an enormous cheque under his nose).
I think the chances of him fighting the next general election are about 30% atm.
Isn't it more a question of whether the 1922, Covid Recovery Group and the Spartans could tolerate it? They decide whether Johnson faces a leadership challenge.
There is, imho, a scenario where Johnson comes staggering back from some horrendous session with SAGE and says we need to lockdown from Jan till March and Sunak says 'No - we haven't got the money' and calls for a vote of no confidence within the party.
Yes, thankfully there’s a large group of Tory MPs opposed to the reintroduction of onerous restrictions on people and businesses, that have actual power to hold the PM to account.
The restrictions were purely to prevent the health service being overwhelmed, so unless we see a significant rise in hospitalisations, there shouldn’t be the reintroduction of restrictions.
Encouragement of mask wearing and remote meetings has little actual cost to businesses, but anything more onerous (such as limiting capacities of venues, or ordering shut certain businesses) will not fly with a large number of Tory MPs.
His whole case is based on the principle that virtually anyone that comes from a warzone is entitled to live in their country of choice. So most of 40 million Afghans, 30 million Yemenis, 40 million Ethiopians etc. And the filtering system should be who can travel to the UK. It would be like accepting masses of ethnic Germans during WW2, rather than just the Jews. It's bonkers. Clearly the morally right yet still sustainable thing is to support camps relatively near to the place of origin and help them return and rebuild post-war. The exceptions should only be those who won't be safe in a post-war society, like gay people or hated religious minorities.
I am due to come to London next week for various work reasons.
Should I stick to Zoom? Or go - sod it - I'll take precautions but am not going to put life on hold forever?
Only you can ultimately weigh up all the factors, but i would have thought chances of encountering mike ron is very low next week. Even though its here, and probably see a lot more cases reported in the coming days, delta will still remain dominant for a while longer.
That depends whether you're looking after yourself or everybody? If it's yourself then yeah, there's probably not enough of it to worry. If you're doing your part in helping everybody not get covid, the goal is to reduce the new variant's reproduction rate, which given the same behaviour is the same when there are 100 cases in the country as when there are 100,000 cases.
If that is your take, everybody better just lockdown themselves down now as every trip has that potential.
I don't think "lockdown" is the right word but yup, you've got a new, potentially very contagious variant in the country, probably not that many, and it may be possible to stop it spreading. So the public-spirited thing to do right now is go into "minimize spread where practical" mode, WFH, avoid indoor social events, if you have to be indoors with people then be a PITA about ventilation etc. Then wait until we know a bit more, as it might turn out that these things are either unnecessary because it's not very bad, or pointless because it's too virulent to contain, but at least you'll still have options.
One of the reasons the UK has had both loads of death and very extreme government-mandated lockdowns while Japan has avoided both those things is that in Japan we do low-disruption things much earlier to lower the reproduction rate before there are too many cases, whereas in the UK they seem to want to wait until they're just about to run out of hospital beds and then ban everybody from leaving their homes.
My understanding is that the evidence shows that most transmission is not actually from people going out and meeting one or two other people, often at a distance from them. Its from those you live with, its your close friends, its going to big crowded places where everybody crams together.
I don't know where you're getting that from.
I don't have time to go and dig out the research papers, but I have seen the research where they did tracing and that is what they found. Those that have to go out to work or school eventually get infected, they bring it home, and you have a very high chance of getting infected because you don't sit around with your mask on, 10 ft away from your partner or kids and you don't have all the windows open, you share items, you hug your friends etc.
Its also why surprising things like gyms aren't anywhere near as bad as people initially thought they would be.
I’ll back you up. There was early but convincing research from Wuhan which said most transmission was within households
Plays into my theory that it was worse up North due to folk touring the street into all the neighbours' houses on a frequent basis.
Yep
Also explains Sweden’s lack of horror. And Japan? Lots of one person households, much less hugging in homes.
The Nordics also socially distance even in non-pandemic times.
They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.
The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
His whole case is based on the principle that virtually anyone that comes from a warzone is entitled to live in their country of choice. So most of 40 million Afghans, 30 million Yemenis, 40 million Ethiopians etc. And the filtering system should be who can travel to the UK. It would be like accepting masses of ethnic Germans during WW2, rather than just the Jews. It's bonkers. Clearly the morally right yet still sustainable thing is to support camps relatively near to the place of origin and help them return and rebuild post-war. The exceptions should only be those who won't be safe in a post-war society, like gay people or hated religious minorities.
The difficulty of large populations suddenly moving into one single country is one of the reasons there's an international agreement, ie 110 million would more than double the UK population which would be disruptive to put it mildly but, spread over the the countries with the richest 2 billion people wouldn't be impossible at all - and that's assuming that everyone needed and wanted to leave their home, which is a huge exaggeration: Not everyone in the affected countries is at risk, and most people don't like leaving their homes unless they have to.
If you don't think this is practical, what's way more impractical is what you're advocating, camps next to the conflict zones, which is mainly where refugees end up right now; For instance Lebanon has something like 1.5 Syrian refugees, out of a total population of under 7 million, which would be equivalent to 15 million in Britain, and in a country with far less resources.
His whole case is based on the principle that virtually anyone that comes from a warzone is entitled to live in their country of choice. So most of 40 million Afghans, 30 million Yemenis, 40 million Ethiopians etc. And the filtering system should be who can travel to the UK. It would be like accepting masses of ethnic Germans during WW2, rather than just the Jews. It's bonkers. Clearly the morally right yet still sustainable thing is to support camps relatively near to the place of origin and help them return and rebuild post-war. The exceptions should only be those who won't be safe in a post-war society, like gay people or hated religious minorities.
The difficulty of large populations suddenly moving into one single country is one of the reasons there's an international agreement, ie 110 million would more than double the UK population which would be disruptive to put it mildly but, spread over the the countries with the richest 2 billion people wouldn't be impossible at all - and that's assuming that everyone needed and wanted to leave their home, which is a huge exaggeration: Not everyone in the affected countries is at risk, and most people don't like leaving their homes unless they have to.
If you don't think this is practical, what's way more impractical is what you're advocating, camps next to the conflict zones, which is mainly where refugees end up right now; For instance Lebanon has something like 1.5 Syrian refugees, out of a total population of under 7 million, which would be equivalent to 15 million in Britain, and in a country with far less resources.
Should we not be encouraging people to remain close to their homeland as possible, and allow them to resettle once the conflict period has passed?
A system that results in millions of migrants relocating to Western countries, has the effects of both hollowing out the population of the conflict country, and of leaving that country with an ethnically homogenous population.
His whole case is based on the principle that virtually anyone that comes from a warzone is entitled to live in their country of choice. So most of 40 million Afghans, 30 million Yemenis, 40 million Ethiopians etc. And the filtering system should be who can travel to the UK. It would be like accepting masses of ethnic Germans during WW2, rather than just the Jews. It's bonkers. Clearly the morally right yet still sustainable thing is to support camps relatively near to the place of origin and help them return and rebuild post-war. The exceptions should only be those who won't be safe in a post-war society, like gay people or hated religious minorities.
The difficulty of large populations suddenly moving into one single country is one of the reasons there's an international agreement, ie 110 million would more than double the UK population which would be disruptive to put it mildly but, spread over the the countries with the richest 2 billion people wouldn't be impossible at all - and that's assuming that everyone needed and wanted to leave their home, which is a huge exaggeration: Not everyone in the affected countries is at risk, and most people don't like leaving their homes unless they have to.
If you don't think this is practical, what's way more impractical is what you're advocating, camps next to the conflict zones, which is mainly where refugees end up right now; For instance Lebanon has something like 1.5 Syrian refugees, out of a total population of under 7 million, which would be equivalent to 15 million in Britain, and in a country with far less resources.
Should we not be encouraging people to remain close to their homeland as possible, and allow them to resettle once the conflict period has passed?
A system that results in millions of migrants relocating to Western countries, has the effects of both hollowing out the population of the conflict country, and of leaving that country with an ethnically homogenous population.
I don't think staying close to the place you're fleeing helps particularly, there are planes. And since the neighbouring countries are more likely to have similar ideological fractures, putting a concentrated population from the war next door risks the war spilling over to the next country. Crowded refugee camps can't be the greatest place to raise educated and emotionally well-balanced kids, so they're more likely to have and cause problems if and when it's safe to go back.
As far as hollowing out goes, I guess it's possible that by letting refugees in you make ethnic cleansing easier, because people are more willing to leave if they've got somewhere to go. But if you asked the people in the populations at risk, I don't think many of them would say, "no, please make us all stay and be buried in mass graves, because it will help the enemy too much if they don't have to dig".
It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.
On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
Actually from 1931-35 the PM’s party had 50 seats and the Tories 460.
(Yes, I know, technicalities and anyway it was the same PM, but still.)
For fans of fantasy I highly recommend Amazon's Wheel of Time TV series.
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
So better than the "Foundation" then....
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
Its a great series to have the rights to if they can do it well. Won't run into the problem of it being unfinished (like Game of Thrones) and there's 14 books in the series so if they turn each book into a season then that's plenty of material to work with.
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
Has the beardy weirdo bloke from Game of Thrones even finished the last book yet (which they had to ignore because he was taking too long)?
No. And there's supposed to be another after that.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
He's 73 now and the number of projects he is involved in seems to be growing still.
By all accounts he's having a great time with it all, and good luck to him, but the book series won't be finished.
Understandably a bit touchy about people worried he'll 'Do a [Robert] Jordan' and not make it.
It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.
On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
Actually from 1931-35 the PM’s party had 50 seats and the Tories 460.
(Yes, I know, technicalities and anyway it was the same PM, but still.)
If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:
any written evidence of this an exemption card This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.
However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.
Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.
So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.
Good morning fellow pb readers and commentators. Cold this morning. My app suggests just below freezing, but thee doesn't appear to be any frost on neighbouring roofs, etc.
Good morning fellow pb readers and commentators. Cold this morning. My app suggests just below freezing, but thee doesn't appear to be any frost on neighbouring roofs, etc.
Still plenty of snow and slush, frozen hard, out here.
The point about T-cells is well made. While we don’t know anywhere near as much about their interactions with the virus (they’re rather more difficult to study in the lab than antibodies), we do know that their recognition of the spike protein is much more comprehensive, and so way more difficult to evade.
It is almost impossible for LAB to get a majority so the most Starmer can hope is being supported by other parties.
It is possible for LAB to win most seats though.
On tonight's Opinium Starmer would be the first PM we have had whose party has not had most seats in the House of Commons since Ramsay Macdonald in 1923
Actually from 1931-35 the PM’s party had 50 seats and the Tories 460.
(Yes, I know, technicalities and anyway it was the same PM, but still.)
National Labour won 13 seats in 1931.
That wasn’t a party until 1932. They presented themselves as a Labour movement just outside the mainstream of the Labour Party (which had of course expelled them).
That wasn’t actually terribly unusual in the 1920s where you had several Labour factions with separate organisations whose candidates took the Labour whip.
I don't think even the most diehard tories on here can deny that in the space of six months the Conservatives have lost a double digit lead. The two main parties are now statistically, or rather psephologically, neck and neck.
Were that to be repeated it would almost certainly lead to a Labour coalition government but that's not really the issue right now. We're 2 years and 5 months away from a General Election. Johnson would not go early on these polls.
But is this just the usual mid-term blues that is perfectly normal for governing parties? It may be. Tories will hope so. Some may airily dismiss it as such, which suits me fine. The more arrogant they are the better for the opposition parties.
Because they 'ought' to be in no doubt whatsoever that they have contrived to lose an enormous amount of public trust. Mike's stat from the Opinium poll is highly instructive in this regard.
My own take, which I admit is also my wishful thinking but based on a long time of looking at these things, is that the 12 years of Conservative rule is now on the fade. We will see a change of administration in 2024.
The next two years will not be pretty for the Conservatives.
They’re rather unlucky, in that they’re the only country for several thousand miles around, gene sequencing the virus. It’s likely all over most of the southern half of Africa already, and will have been for several weeks. Which is actually good news, because we haven’t seen reports of the often primative healthcare systems in Africa becoming strained.
The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
Yes, if the reproduction rate is so high, it’s pretty much a waste of time imposing travel restrictions for much more than a couple of weeks. That time, though, could be quite useful in terms of assessing the variant (we’ll know much more about hospitalisations) and setting policy before it really takes off here.
Comments
I’ve got friends who were quite obedient lockdowners and maskwearers - even through the hell of last winter - who are now saying No. Enough. I’ve had my jabs, I’ve washed my hands. That’s it. If I die, I die
Let the fearful shrink. Let everyone else choose. That must be the endpoint
I might have to go to Weston super Mare next year.
It will take a week or two to circulate the family and friends, then the kids and the work places of those that have. That is exactly what happened with Delta in the UK.
If the unvaxxed get sick, that's the consequence of their choices.
We haven't had it despite one child at Uni, one at school and me not being particularly careful.
‘There is a faint signal that #Omicron may not just be a mild disease! Looking at the hospital data for Gauteng Province in South Africa, there has been a significant increase in Covid admissions for epi weeks 46 and 47. Week 47 is from the 21 to 28 Nov and therefore the data is’
‘not complete yet. This includes both the private and public sector, South Africa has nice consolidated test and hospital data across both sectors. Courtesy @nicd_sa’
https://twitter.com/davekni45734747/status/1464618545057349633?s=21
Reason for disquiet; not for panic
The official Labour Party was the main opposition, Macdonald's National Labour party were coalition partners of the Tories
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464734073897766919?s=20
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/omicron
Sunday Times.
For example, two variants with the same R rate of 2, but one has an average onward retransmission time of 2 days, one has onward transmission of 3 days. From the same start the quicker variant outcompetes the slow one by over 2 to 1 every week, even with the identical R.
What does this matter? The better variant spreads more without increasing R. But to suppress either of these variants, the job is the same, to get R below 1. And the NPI actions you need to take to suppress R that far are substantially the same. Not more, not less.
Some, although by no means all, of Delta's advantage aiui was slightly quicker onwards transmission. If a fair chunk of Omicron's advantage is in generation time it would be a bad thing for countries with R > 1 at the moment, but would be much more neutral where R was already around 1.
I'm not saying b this is wholly or partly the case here, it is too early to tell, but it is very plausible to suggest it could be part of b the story.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464734073897766919?s=20
So the main risk again is to the unvaccinated
I'm not sure 'speed of asserting dominance' is epidemiologically meaningful.
I guess people are desperate to believe good news, however unlikely. Even tho 2 minutes of astute googling showed that it is nonsense
Javid for example polls far better than Truss
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1463107592847347716?s=20
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1463100115258953732?s=2
Mori gives Truss an abysmal -24% rating with voters on whether she would make a good PM, compared to -21% for Boris, -16% for Starmer and -9% for Sunak.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html
She is also a Libertarian not a Conservative, she can be a Cabinet Minister but I would never vote for her for party leader as a Tory member.
This is very much finger in the air estimate, but the take-away is the belief is is f##king infectious, far more than the original strain or even Delta, and that it appears to escape previous immunity to allow much more frequent reinfection. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter if it is 100% or 200% or 500% more infectious if it escapes previous immunity and vaccines, Delta ripped through unvaccinated populations like wild fire anyway.
https://twitter.com/jpweiland/status/1464286567254605829?s=21
‘The 500% model is based on latest sequencing data out of South Africa over time- It is important to note that there is limited data at the moment, and it is very possible that more data will reveal a slower takeover. With all my heart I hope that is the case.’
See his last 30 or so tweets. I wish they weren’t scary, but they are
This is my favourite book series I've ever read, so was a bit dreading whether Amazon would do it justice or not - especially if they tried to turn it into 'tits and dragons' which it isn't.
But just seen the four episodes that are out (they're releasing a new one a week) and so far its good, and they've not remade it to be 'tits and dragons'. No spoilers but they've changed some elements from the books which is kind of inevitable, some in quite surprising ways, but its working.
I'm pleased to see they seem to have really interpreted the book well so far.
Just reading, apparently Amazon spent $10 million per episode. No wonder the BBC are down the shitter. And I bet Amazon pump out a new season every year.
If it is a success it could sustain a plot for a long long time (even cutting out, as they will have to, books worth of side plots and side characters), so I hope for all their sakes it does.
More surprising to me was the audible email I received that they've re-released the audiobook, paying Rosamund Pike to perform it. If they manage to contract her to do the rest of them that's around 35-40 hours a time for 14 books, a lot for a fairly high profile actor.
Credible scientist of not, I can't help thinking this is a loosely worded interview claim that will turn out to be bollocks..
No reason to drag it out five years between seasons like some BBC shows.
As I say, it is the mutations common to Beta variant, that they already known previous infection and current vaccines are poor against, even if it doesn't have an R0 of something crazy like 15.
Took a couple of episodes to really find its feet, but by the end of the most recent (4th) episode I'm very optimistic they've got the chemistry right.
Of course, ratings for the first season of Game of Thrones were not actually fantastic, it built from there to be a phenomenom, so there's always hope.
True story, my first year of university the fourth book came out, with a note at the end IIRC saying basically 'You'll notice around half the characters aren't here, they'll be in the next book a year from now'. Around 5 years later we got book 5, and still nothing more yet, 10 years later.
I love the series with all its flaws, and he apparently types around 7 words a minute, but at a certain point even authors of acclaimed series are expected by their publishers to deliver.
It would be good if they essentially commit to 3-4 years for big projects, as they have the money to see if that pays off. There's quite a few shows which grew their audience over time, or were not super well regarded in first seasons but became mega hits.
I was given that book for my birthday by a friend who didn't realise it wasn't a standalone book. I saw that it was book 6 of series so got books 1 - 5 from the library before reading 6. Was confused when I got to the end of the book, as I didn't realise until I finished it that it wasn't the end so had to wait a year or two for the next one to be released . . . then about another fifteen or so for the series to be finished.
By all accounts he's having a great time with it all, and good luck to him, but the book series won't be finished.
When the third was released I picked it up at the bookstore then had a second thought and put it back down. I decided after Wheel of Time I didn't want to wait two years between books again and would wait a few years before the series was finished before restarting the series.
Could never have imagined then that a decade later only one more book had subsequently been released - or only two more in the subsequent two decades.
Sadly there's a big part of me that thinks that the series is never going to be finished until someone like Brandon Sanderson finishes it posthumously, as I just don't have confidence GRRM is ever going to do so himself. Though Jordan knew he was dying and worked as long as he could putting his affairs in order so that it could be finished posthumously (prior to his diagnosis he used to say that if anything happened to him then he wanted all his notes burning).
Even so
Write Like the Wind (George R. R. Martin)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1464536696138178569
Worth 4 minutes of anyone's time.
Star Wars have announced, written, filmed and released a third trilogy of movies.
The HBO series wasn't held up - perhaps unfortunately!
About 20 plus MCU movies
A global pandemic.
And still not a single new book in that whole time by Martin!
China under Communism has been responsible for mass death, famine, destruction and terror. It is perpetrating genocide on the Uighurs now. A load of consumer goods do not weigh in the balance.
The Chinese regime is evil. We'd all be better off without it.
Just shows how different people can have different views on the same art.
The restrictions were purely to prevent the health service being overwhelmed, so unless we see a significant rise in hospitalisations, there shouldn’t be the reintroduction of restrictions.
Encouragement of mask wearing and remote meetings has little actual cost to businesses, but anything more onerous (such as limiting capacities of venues, or ordering shut certain businesses) will not fly with a large number of Tory MPs.
The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restricted travel from southern Africa as details of the spread emerged."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129
The “Kent Variant” likely didn’t originate in Kent either, but the UK were also doing a shedload of sequencing at the time.
If you don't think this is practical, what's way more impractical is what you're advocating, camps next to the conflict zones, which is mainly where refugees end up right now; For instance Lebanon has something like 1.5 Syrian refugees, out of a total population of under 7 million, which would be equivalent to 15 million in Britain, and in a country with far less resources.
A system that results in millions of migrants relocating to Western countries, has the effects of both hollowing out the population of the conflict country, and of leaving that country with an ethnically homogenous population.
As far as hollowing out goes, I guess it's possible that by letting refugees in you make ethnic cleansing easier, because people are more willing to leave if they've got somewhere to go. But if you asked the people in the populations at risk, I don't think many of them would say, "no, please make us all stay and be buried in mass graves, because it will help the enemy too much if they don't have to dig".
(Yes, I know, technicalities and anyway it was the same PM, but still.)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own#exempt
If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering you do not need to show:
any written evidence of this
an exemption card
This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.
However, some people may feel more comfortable if they are able to show something that explains why they’re not wearing a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.
Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.
So unless they decide to change this - which I doubt if they can in practice given GP services are in effect moribund - they can pass what laws they like, nobody will have to wear a mask.
https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1464599574090289154
The point about T-cells is well made. While we don’t know anywhere near as much about their interactions with the virus (they’re rather more difficult to study in the lab than antibodies), we do know that their recognition of the spike protein is much more comprehensive, and so way more difficult to evade.
That wasn’t actually terribly unusual in the 1920s where you had several Labour factions with separate organisations whose candidates took the Labour whip.
I don't think even the most diehard tories on here can deny that in the space of six months the Conservatives have lost a double digit lead. The two main parties are now statistically, or rather psephologically, neck and neck.
Were that to be repeated it would almost certainly lead to a Labour coalition government but that's not really the issue right now. We're 2 years and 5 months away from a General Election. Johnson would not go early on these polls.
But is this just the usual mid-term blues that is perfectly normal for governing parties? It may be. Tories will hope so. Some may airily dismiss it as such, which suits me fine. The more arrogant they are the better for the opposition parties.
Because they 'ought' to be in no doubt whatsoever that they have contrived to lose an enormous amount of public trust. Mike's stat from the Opinium poll is highly instructive in this regard.
My own take, which I admit is also my wishful thinking but based on a long time of looking at these things, is that the 12 years of Conservative rule is now on the fade. We will see a change of administration in 2024.
The next two years will not be pretty for the Conservatives.