Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks – politicalbetting.com

123578

Comments

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    Foss said:

    As long as Nu gets heavily into Europe first then Johnson can probably shrug off another lockdown.

    NU will never make it into Europe. More likely to go down.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
    Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
    That's a very good point Richard, easy for me and my retired frieinds to lock-down voluntarily, much harder for others without a government edict.

    We shall see.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 372
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
    Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
    Another lockdown - which will surely be worldwide - is almost unthinkably bad. The economic damage alone. Jeez. Travel and hospitality will die out forever. Debt will explode even more. A chain reaction of horrible consequences


    This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck

    I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu

  • RattersRatters Posts: 197
    Shame for my boss who was booke
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    The only downside to note is if this is significant enough a change to be considered a new variant (what's next? Epsilon?) such that the previous research is no longer applicable.

    All feels a bit early to draw conclusions.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    They don't.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,743
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    Awesome Neolithic pun there.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
    Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
    That's a very good point Richard, easy for me and my retired frieinds to lock-down voluntarily, much harder for others without a government edict.

    We shall see.
    As the Bible says.
    The meek will inherit the earth.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.

    These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.

    The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.

    it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well
    According to you, because you are panicking.

    If this is all about the red list, the Government is cutting off South Africa as a precaution and not because this variant (which is only one of a great many that has been identified since Delta) has been confirmed to be some kind of superplague.

    All we know of it is it has lots of mutations, lots of mutations doesn't necessarily equal bad, and I doubt if it is bad in this case.

    The virus has been under considerable evolutionary pressure from vaccination in much of the world this year, and hasn't managed to come up with anything worse than Delta - which suggests that it is nearing the limits of its ability to cause mischief.

    Covid-19 isn't a magic particle that can be anything it likes, it's just a bag of genes. It's not about to turn into a whole new disease just by reshuffling them.
    Who's panicking? I'm just making a cautious, measured appraisal of the data - which is scant - and surmising that this is the end of human civilisation as we have come to know it, and that much of the world will be a howling, desolate nullity in about four months

    That's not panic, that's weighing the evidence carefully
    Silly boy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    edited November 25
    philiph said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....
    On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!
    Hmmmmm
    #Leon point of geographic order
    If it is a South African variant it has evolved in Summer not Winter
    Unless it evolved about ten months ago, no it hasn't.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,743

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
    Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
    That's a very good point Richard, easy for me and my retired frieinds to lock-down voluntarily, much harder for others without a government edict.

    We shall see.
    I think my retired friends will do anything but lock themselves down again. And having had two jabs, Delta, and with a booster due in two weeks, I might just risk a bit of vaccine dilution
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
    Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
    Another lockdown - which will surely be worldwide - is almost unthinkably bad. The economic damage alone. Jeez. Travel and hospitality will die out forever. Debt will explode even more. A chain reaction of horrible consequences


    This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck

    I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu

    No, this isn't the nightmare scenario. The nightmare is that a new completely vaccine evading variant that can still infect people is found first in the UK and suddenly everyone closes their borders to us. We almost had that with Alpha and Delta but ultimately both of those had little to no efficacy dilution.

    That's my personal nightmare, I think I'd feel trapped.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,430
    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,611
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    Er, one does. Glacial erratics.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.
    Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.
    It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty
    Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.
    Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.
    Another lockdown - which will surely be worldwide - is almost unthinkably bad. The economic damage alone. Jeez. Travel and hospitality will die out forever. Debt will explode even more. A chain reaction of horrible consequences


    This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck

    I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu

    No, this isn't the nightmare scenario. The nightmare is that a new completely vaccine evading variant that can still infect people is found first in the UK and suddenly everyone closes their borders to us. We almost had that with Alpha and Delta but ultimately both of those had little to no efficacy dilution.

    That's my personal nightmare, I think I'd feel trapped.
    Yes. I already feel quite trapped. I haven't seen my daughter in Oz for 2 years. This could easily extend that by another two years, as the Zero Covid countries respond allergically

    As I say, foreign travel could now collapse almost entirely
  • BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here is the BBC report

    BBC News - Covid: Africa travel restrictions over variant fear
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59424269
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    Er, one does. Glacial erratics.
    Good brand name for Leon ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    SA, Botswana and - apparently - neighbouring countries with low sequencing. Rough guess: Namibia, Zimbo, the two "enclaves" - I forget their new names
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Gotta get your flint somewhere. Although weirdly @Leon must be good, as the defining feature of knapped flint is it’s sharp, which is not ideal for the uses he targets...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    Er, one does. Glacial erratics.
    I was about to say HA! and point out that the glaciers never reached that far south in the east of the country, but it seems my mental map of it is apparently only applicable to the most recent ice age. The "Anglian" ice age, half a million years ago, did.

    Hmm. I'm going to concede this one. This time.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    This wretched virus almost has its own inbuilt anti-smug defence mechanism.

    The moment people or even a country think they've got it beat, it comes back to bite.

    We're a long long way from through this. I estimate we have another 2 years to go and some of that time is going to be tough, including this winter.

    Sorry. Genuinely. It's wretched.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 372
    edited November 25
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871
    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    SA, Botswana and - apparently - neighbouring countries with low sequencing. Rough guess: Namibia, Zimbo, the two "enclaves" - I forget their new names
    South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Scott_xP said:

    Begging the French...

    The PM has written to Macron formally requesting:
    - UK Border Force to be allowed to patrol French waters
    - Joint patrols of French beaches that could involve UK private security guards rather than Border Force to overcome Macron's concerns on sovereignty
    - Use of ground sensors
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1463973204456878080

    He'll probably say no as I doubt that would play well, but surely he has to at least attempt to engage with the French about it and that is what he is doing?

    Seeing it in terms of begging and/or triumphing over the other is probably one reason the issue crops up every few years, since leaders on both sides find it more useful to posture than to sort it out long term.

    The Borises and Macrons of the world love it when the media and public see everything in terms of political gamesmanship, of demands and begging and pleading, as it helps their own petty dramas.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from 12pm on Friday.

    I'll give the Gov't their due. For once they have acted swiftly.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 372

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    Awesome Neolithic pun there.
    Apologies Leon. I was associated flint with something sharp like a knife, I guess things have moved on since the Stone Age. And to be honest I can’t remember us going through the gift shop at Grime Graves. I tried googling some, but I can imagine it I think. You will say it’s very hard, but is it also very smooth? Can it stand up as an ornament? Do you do doubles for two people at once?

    How do you sell them? Are you on eBay? Is it just a standard, people can stretch what they want over it I guess. or If you wanted it like an ornament too is foreskin on or foreskin off is option on the form?

    I have spoken to my friend and we are interested. Can you post a link please to the site?

    So you are a bit of an artist like me really? I am post grad and was at the RCA over the river but not now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,754
    .
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    I wonder if Eadric's hermetically sealed basement bolt hole in Penarth is currently vacant? Sounds like you might need it to be on the safe side.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    Er, one does. Glacial erratics.
    Good brand name for Leon ?
    One of the most famous typos in history was a book of geology (IIRC) which described a flood plain as being "strewn with erotic blacks". Clearly they meant "erratic blocks"
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint =/= basalt.
    Although I'm don't really know for sure that you won't find any native surface basalt in East Angular. I haven't checked. It was a throwaway piece of nonsense really.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    SA, Botswana and - apparently - neighbouring countries with low sequencing. Rough guess: Namibia, Zimbo, the two "enclaves" - I forget their new names
    Eswatini and Lesotho.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,611

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Gotta get your flint somewhere. Although weirdly @Leon must be good, as the defining feature of knapped flint is it’s sharp, which is not ideal for the uses he targets...
    One would think mammoth or straight-tusked elephant ivory would be more suitable. Ah, I see I'm not the only one with that sentiment -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perforated_baton
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    edited November 25
    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
  • FossFoss Posts: 437
    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871
    edited November 25
    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Happy Thanksgiving to our US posters.

    Interesting article on its history (which I bet quite a few Americans aren’t aware of).
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/25/first-thanksgiving-political-fight-523357
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    Awesome Neolithic pun there.
    Apologies Leon. I was associated flint with something sharp like a knife, I guess things have moved on since the Stone Age. And to be honest I can’t remember us going through the gift shop at Grime Graves. I tried googling some, but I can imagine it I think. You will say it’s very hard, but is it also very smooth? Can it stand up as an ornament? Do you do doubles for two people at once?

    How do you sell them? Are you on eBay? Is it just a standard, people can stretch what they want over it I guess. or If you wanted it like an ornament too is foreskin on or foreskin off is option on the form?

    I have spoken to my friend and we are interested. Can you post a link please to the site?

    So you are a bit of an artist like me really? I am post grad and was at the RCA over the river but not now.
    ^ this is an escalation
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true


    That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched

    FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
  • Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    This is Sky's report including a reference to the case in Hong Kong

    http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-b11529-variant-worst-one-weve-seen-so-far-say-uk-experts-12478737
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true


    That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched

    FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
    Yep, with you 100%.

    Been there, done that, too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Israel data looks great now post boosters. We’re not far behind. I suspect tonight is a cautious wobble that won’t come to much, but we will see.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260
    geoffw said:

    BigRich said:

    Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

    How does one pronounce Nu?

    new

    Some other options.

    Aw naw, no Annoni on an aw noo.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true


    That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched

    FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
    Yep, with you 100%.

    Been there, done that, too.
    I agree this probably means another two years of various spoonfuls of shit. IF the Nu evades the vax as suggested. Really not not not good

    It could be even worse than that

    I am literally saying a little prayer
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,287
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Hm, Daily Mail, vs. Porton Down.
    Surely, Professor Peston is the ultimate authority?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Nothing in that to suggest anything more than we have gleaned from twitter. Lots of might and may. Let’s see. I’d note that cases are very low in SA and with a low vaccination rate too. It may be a huge problem, but we don’t know yet.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,186

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Hm, Daily Mail, vs. Porton Down.
    Quite. I’d wait for the actual scientists to look at real samples.
  • Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on

    But not that bit when you said, and I quote, 'we've got this virus beat.'

    Actually I'm not having a go. Six months back I too thought we were going to smash it. Then I began to see the data from Israel and I realised that we weren't at all, that we were in fact still facing a god-almighty battle.

    Two more years of this I reckon, with downs and ups along the way. A tough winter ahead I fear.
    Hold on, I'm the actual inventor of the Second Covid Rule of Hubris. Any country that boasts of its Covid success inevitably gets cruelly smacked down soon after. It is universally true


    That doesn't mean I haven't broken my own rule, I surely have. Like you, I really thought we had this wiped. We still might, but this feels like a big setback. It is indeed wretched

    FYI my other Covid Rule - the First Rule of Covid - is "imagine your reasonable worst case Covid scenario, because that is generally what will happen". Also being sadly verified, again
    Yep, with you 100%.

    Been there, done that, too.
    I agree this probably means another two years of various spoonfuls of shit. IF the Nu evades the vax as suggested. Really not not not good

    It could be even worse than that

    I am literally saying a little prayer
    Totally agree and, yes, me too.

    Funnily enough I was thinking about you a couple of nights back when I was out in town at a vibey restaurant, few masks, wondering if some semblance of normality was returning.

    But the world is far from 'normal.' My brother's just returned from Paris which he found a sometimes 'tricky' experience and commented that he's not sure if in his lifetime it will ever return to how it was pre-covid.

    The lights went out all over Europe and they won't be relit for some time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    When did @Leon start editing the Daily Mail?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283
    So, Man U are having a remarkably crap season but managed to qualify for the next round of the CL. Any now you tell me international travel is ending? That would just be typical, wouldn't it? Absolutely typical.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,854
    Wonderful place Swaziland. Like the best of South Africa without the violent crime.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908
    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Headline: Super-mutant could make Covid vaccines 40% less effective! Worst ever, panic panic panic panic panic!!!

    Report: unidentified "Government scientists" say it could make vaccines 40% less effective at preventing infection. Which is exactly what we might expect if Covid-19 was gradually turning into a virtually harmless cold virus.

    It's clickbait. Ignore.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    Nothing in that to suggest anything more than we have gleaned from twitter. Lots of might and may. Let’s see. I’d note that cases are very low in SA and with a low vaccination rate too. It may be a huge problem, but we don’t know yet.
    I think that's what we have to find out, what are the circumstances on the ground in these areas that have Nu. Are vaccination rates really low? Are they using Sinovac (which we know is pretty poor even with three doses)? Is it spreading in urbanised areas with very high population density? Is it spreading among those with HIV/AIDS?

    There are just so many variables that don't translate to the UK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,611
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    RN is a geologist ...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
    Not quite:

    Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)

    Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup
  • eekeek Posts: 15,856

    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, Portion Down is getting samples of the Nu to run antibody binding efficiency tests and efficacy modelling. We should have answers on vaccine efficacy dilution pretty soon.

    That is interesting.

    The Daily Mail reckon they already have the answer and it's not pretty: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    Fucking covid.

    Excuse the language.
    When did @Leon start editing the Daily Mail?
    Last week, promotion from just editing the Mail on Sunday.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    RN is a geologist ...
    Andesite is much better for him being here
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871
    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    Important question: how are you pronouncing Nu @Leon?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,186

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    This is wrong. Yes, if it's highly transmissible, it's coming eventually. But there's a big difference between starting your exponential growth this week, and starting it a couple of months later, when more people will be triple jabbed, and we might even be close to having vaccines targeted at the new variant.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 948

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    I think foreign travel is over as long as we have COVID. You don't want to have to quarantine in a hotel room in a foreign country at your own expense, or otherwise be stuck somewhere indefinetly with a large quarantine hotel bill on your eventual return; as would be the case now if you went to south africa. I mentioned that I was in Europe last week and Covid was everywhere; I stayed with friends in a town where everyone was being pinged.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
    Not quite:

    Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)

    Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
    Yes, Javid definitely strikes me as a travel and lockdown hawk. My guess is that if he was the health secretary in Feb/March 2020 we would have tried the NZ/Oz method.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,854
    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    Well it’s certainly bumped Biden’s jfk cover up out of the news. And the abruptly announced new Pentagon ufo unit.

    Anyway I have officially run out of red wine. What a cataclysm. Might as well go to bed as I am far outside the delivery zone of your super app that delivers red wine in 20 mins.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283
    Whatever the eta of nu I am lambdaing the missing Greek letters. Doesn't make an iota of sense to me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    "Covid live: England and Israel ban flights from southern Africa"

    Israel as well. The whole of the world will surely follow in the coming hours. Brutal for SA

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    This is wrong. Yes, if it's highly transmissible, it's coming eventually. But there's a big difference between starting your exponential growth this week, and starting it a couple of months later, when more people will be triple jabbed, and we might even be close to having vaccines targeted at the new variant.
    Yes, getting 30m triple jabbed before it significantly arrives vs it arriving with 16m triple jabbed will make a big difference, maybe even the difference between lockdown and not lockdown. That's a fair point.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,186
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,281
    edited November 25
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,788

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING

    - UK govt places 6 African countries on its travel red list, due to new variant spreading in South Africa

    Do we know which 6? our friends where expecting relatives to visit form Zimbabwe, I'm guessing that will be on the list?
    Here you go. I got it bang on


    "Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from Friday and all six countries will be added to the red list, after the discovery of a new Covid variant which one official called the “worst one we’ve seen”"

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1463978953857814528?s=20
    Apparently it's already been detected in Hong Kong so this Red List stuff now feels a little pointless.
    Its relatively easy for the government to do this as besides South Africa perhaps there's not exactly going to be hordes of people complaining about their holiday to Botswana getting ruined on Sky tomorrow.

    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.
    At least on this occasion we did it as soon as we saw the horse had gone...
    Not quite:

    Javid: "So what we will be doing is from midday tomorrow we will be suspending all flights from six, southern African countries and we will add in those countries to the travel red list. " (my bold)

    Admittedly, it's a sight quicker than previous lax attempts.
    Two Joburg to London flights are in the air now, a couple of hours into their journey and still to cross the Equator, and landing around 6-7 am tomorrow. I take it those will be the last to land.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,854
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
    I wouldn't have clast you as a fan
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 107


    But its a bit closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Either we redlist the planet or this is coming, if its transmissable.

    Eventually, yes. But my understanding from the discussions back when delta-related travel bans were on the table was that a ban on travel from new-variant hotspots could buy you time, because if you have 100 or so carriers who came in via third countries that places you N doubling-times less far along than if you let unrestricted planeloads in directly. A nasty variant being present in huge numbers here in late December is likely to be harder for the NHS to handle than if we manage to delay that wave into Spring, I think.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    Important question: how are you pronouncing Nu @Leon?
    I'm going with NOO, it sounds a bit less scary. Ni is mad, despite the nice Python reference
  • FossFoss Posts: 437
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    When an intern loves a mouse very, very much...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,611
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
    I wouldn't have clast you as a fan
    Even an alluvial one?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,332
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
    I wouldn't have clast you as a fan
    Even an alluvial one?
    oh god, I'm trying to get away from talking about Covid, and you're bringing me back to Delta here.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    It's the Nu normal.
    Leon said:

    "Covid live: England and Israel ban flights from southern Africa"

    Israel as well. The whole of the world will surely follow in the coming hours. Brutal for SA

    Either the whole world isolates SA or we have to shut down to the whole world to avoid Nu. We'll become Nu Zealand.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    Important question: how are you pronouncing Nu @Leon?
    I'm going with NOO, it sounds a bit less scary. Ni is mad, despite the nice Python reference
    Sounds right, I'll let the Beeb know for News at Ten. (Or should that be Nus at Ten? 😬)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Mice genetically engineered to express human proteins, to enable study of how pathogens etc interact with them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,854
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 372

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More from Planet Plague


    "South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

    "UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

    30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.
    If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

    And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

    I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.
    You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.
    I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

    However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

    It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year
    Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

    Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

    will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?
    I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

    Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people
    what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.
    Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.
    I have been to flint mines in Norfolk. I remember it.

    Edit. Or somewhere close by Norfolk.
    Flint yes, flint is found in chalk. Basalt no (except a few glacial erratics).
    Only on PB...
    You don't like the geology chat? Tuff.
    On the contrary, I think it's great. It's why I keep coming back here.
    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Two_Paths/Lecture_V
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,788
    DavidL said:

    Whatever the eta of nu I am lambdaing the missing Greek letters. Doesn't make an iota of sense to me.

    All the missing letters were assigned to variants WHO had their eyes on, most were deasserted and came to naught or, if you prefer, met their omega.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2?wprov=sfla1
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,477
    Leon said:

    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin

    FFS. Calm down. We don’t know how bad, or otherwise, it is yet. Let’s wait and see.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 908

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

    Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
    Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
    AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

    These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

    Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

    If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine
    Not to hand, but I remember seeing that's where all three vaccines did pretty well, efficacy against death was into the 90s and hospitalisations above 90 for Pfizer and Moderna, above 85 for AZ, even with some efficacy waning we're looking at maybe 70-80% for each against hospitalisation which will go up with the booster shot.

    Binding efficiency for beta isn't as bad as people think, but again, I'm very happy we've done 16m booster shots. It might be time to push the emergency button and lower the gap to 4.5 months to bring all over 40s into the booster shot funnel and most over 30s.
    Yeah, I don't really want to wait until January for my booster in these circumstances.
    Yes, I can just imagine that even when computer finally says "Yes" (hopefully tomorrow) it will probably only offer me appointment slots for after Christmas. The whole system is actually getting through the population more quickly than in most of the rest of Europe, but it feels painfully slow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Humanised mice is what the Wuhan lab was using to GoF engineer the virus, in the first place. Thanks for that, guys
    I still meet smart people in real life who become viscerally angry if you raise the idea that it might have come from the Wuhan lab. Like their brains can’t handle it. Refuse to accept there’s even a debate to be had about it. Quite interesting to behold.
    Yes, it's a kind of specialised madness. Very odd. Not entirely dissimilar to some of the crazier Remoaner reactions to Brexit

    What a pity we live in interesting times
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,854

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The news of The Nu is gonna blow every other story out of the window. Even the awful drownings

    The world is waiting for the vax results. Like a clock ticking to a potentially apocalyptic explosion

    I confess I am not sure what it means for the Greens in Bexley and Sidcup

    It will be a few weeks at least because efficacy will be modelled from antibody binding in humanised mice infected with the new variant.
    “Humanised mice”. That sounds terribly exotic. How does that work?
    Mice genetically engineered to express human proteins, to enable study of how pathogens etc interact with them.
    Sounds like a perfectly normal thing to do to a mouse.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,743
    Leon said:

    "Johnson has always caveated his comments when he is asked about Christmas – roughly once a week – that new variants could throw plans off course. Now the worst news has come from South Africa – a variant that is feared to be more transmissible and has the potential to evade immunity."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/action-over-variant-shows-government-keen-to-avoid-christmas-calamity-of-2020


    Take every plan you had for 2022, and chuck it in the bin

    The die is karst
Sign In or Register to comment.