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Nigelb said:

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

China might have killed the world

*eyes gin*

Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

(*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)

Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

As for the 'favour', no.

I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.

Doubt it.
Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.

stodge said:

Evening all

I presume we've commented on the two other significant political events of note in the past 24 hours:

1) It looks as though the SPD-FDP-Green coalition Government will take over early next month. A deal has bene struck - essentially FDP leader Lindner will become Finance Minister and Baerbock will be Foreign Minister with Scholz the new Chancellor.

2) The only opposition leader to be even more hapless than Sir Keir Starmer (that's a bit harsh now) - Judith Collins of the National Party in New Zealand - has been given the heave-ho by her own caucus of MPs. Collins has frankly been a disastrous leader for National leading them to a heavy defeat at last year's election which was the worst performance by National since 2002.

The catalyst for the move against Collins was her attempt to oust former leader Simon Bridges from her Shadow Cabinet citing an incident of inappropriate behaviour and language a few years ago. I suspect Bridges' friends in the caucus decided she had finally gone too far.

It's possible Simon Bridges might have a second go at leading National though the first ended poorly but Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand CEO, seen as a potential leader, only got into Parliament last year and the other possibility is Mark Mitchell who stood against Collins when she won the leadership and is a friend of Bridges. Anecdotally, his grandfather was Frank Gill, who was also a National MP, was New Zealand Ambassador to the United States and flew Hurricanes in the Battle of Britain.

Eabhal said:

Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Sadly I have come down ill but keeping my spirits high

rottenborough said:

stodge said:

Evening all

I presume we've commented on the two other significant political events of note in the past 24 hours:

1) It looks as though the SPD-FDP-Green coalition Government will take over early next month. A deal has bene struck - essentially FDP leader Lindner will become Finance Minister and Baerbock will be Foreign Minister with Scholz the new Chancellor.

2) The only opposition leader to be even more hapless than Sir Keir Starmer (that's a bit harsh now) - Judith Collins of the National Party in New Zealand - has been given the heave-ho by her own caucus of MPs. Collins has frankly been a disastrous leader for National leading them to a heavy defeat at last year's election which was the worst performance by National since 2002.

The catalyst for the move against Collins was her attempt to oust former leader Simon Bridges from her Shadow Cabinet citing an incident of inappropriate behaviour and language a few years ago. I suspect Bridges' friends in the caucus decided she had finally gone too far.

It's possible Simon Bridges might have a second go at leading National though the first ended poorly but Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand CEO, seen as a potential leader, only got into Parliament last year and the other possibility is Mark Mitchell who stood against Collins when she won the leadership and is a friend of Bridges. Anecdotally, his grandfather was Frank Gill, who was also a National MP, was New Zealand Ambassador to the United States and flew Hurricanes in the Battle of Britain.

I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.

What could possibly go wrong?

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently

I don't think you can do that exercise on such a small sample size.

eek said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, over on the Rail Forums site there is a debate going on as to whether Middlesbrough is in Yorkshire or not.

Has the site been hacked by PBers?

That's a really simple question - is it North or South of the Tees.

North and you are in County Durham, South and you are in Yorkshire.

stodge said:

rottenborough said:

I predict major tensions in the medium term with FDP in charge of the money and SPD and Greens running the spending departments.

What could possibly go wrong?

If I were Scholz, I would give the other party leaders some sage advice via the old political maxim:

If we don't hang together, we'll all hang separately.

If they can get this right, they can shut out the CDU/CSU for a generation.

Eabhal said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently

I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).

24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).

Wow, measles goes up to 18 according to wiki.

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163

pigeon said:

Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.

These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.

The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, over on the Rail Forums site there is a debate going on as to whether Middlesbrough is in Yorkshire or not.

Has the site been hacked by PBers?

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163

Wow. That WAS quick. For once

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

China might have killed the world

*eyes gin*

Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

(*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)

Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

As for the 'favour', no.

I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.

Doubt it.
Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.

Indeed, AZ booked $1bn in revenue for a non-profit at cost vaccine. At a reasonable sale price that figure would be 3-4x as much, per quarter.

And the AZ vaccine is very much seen as the inferior one in the west. Even third place is raking in shit loads.

Pfizer has made more money in a year than anyone ever on one treatment.
They could probably buy AZN on the proceeds of the vaccine.

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Eabhal said:

Leon said:

Eabhal said:

Is it possible that this new variant is already here and we just haven't been looking for it on the PCRs? Can we re-process some PCRs from the last few weeks and see if it's about?

Good question, I was thinking similarly. Ditto on mainland Europe, esp Holland

A dude on Twitter has done some fag-packet maths and claims that, whereas Delta has a R0 of~ 6, Nu probably has a R0 of 24. Unbelievably infectious

Could be absolute nonsense, probably is, nonetheless shows why WHO are acting so urgently

I think wait for Max's input on that. He came up with a good formula for R early on which has come in handy (cheers!).

24 seems completely mad. In my normal, pre-COVID week I get within 2m of fewer people than that (exception being the pub).

Wow, measles goes up to 18 according to wiki.

Nu is doubling roughly every day in SA, but we only have tiny amounts of data, as yet

That does suggest terrific infectivity

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: I understand South Africa will be placed on the U.K. red list due to the rise in cases of the “super variant”
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1463967511888732163

Wow. That WAS quick. For once

BigRich said:

Question to the very clever Greek Speakers on here,

How does one pronounce Nu?

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

IshmaelZ said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?

Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat

Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.

It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government

One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.

Donnent-ils, non?

I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

EDIT: seen your edit now

I'd go with leur, not ils.

Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?

I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!

Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.

I can't remember the name of the book that we studied in Latin - except I do remember it was rather dark at times.

The book started following a family in Roman times and fairly standard scenarios and vocabulary things, learning about family etc . . . then branching out into other people in the town. Like the barber, for which one of the stories is about the barber using a sharp blade to cut people's beards then he cuts someone's neck and kills them. That came rather out of the blue and left me permanently petrified of what was quite literally a cut-throat blade. 😲

And the book ends with the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, and the death of pretty much every character we'd learnt about that year while studying the course.

Sounds like the Cambridge Latin Course.

https://www.clc.cambridgescp.com/home-clc

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Oh dear, panty wetting over the latest Covid variant, I see.

These variants are going to keep appearing forever (although scientists will probably stop bothering to study them once Covid-19 has turned into just another cold virus,) but I confidently predict that - at least in those parts of the world that are already well-advanced in deploying vaccines and learning how to manage the illness in those who remain susceptible - none of them are going to cause the same kind of havoc as Delta ever again.

The virus appears to be transitioning to the endemic phase in the UK, and all the European countries that are panicking and sliding back into lockdowns right now ought hopefully to go through the same process next year. It's going to keep ripping through less well-protected populations for some time, I'm afraid, but in this part of the world the worst is over.

it took literally no time at all for this comment to Not Age Well

rkrkrk said:

Has the UK govt just made a timely covid decision? Genuinely impressive.

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

pigeon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....

MaxPB said:

Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....

On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Here's the beta efficacy stats vs delta:

Moderna 85% delta, 60% beta
Pfizer 60% delta, 50% beta
AZ 40% delta, 30% beta

These numbers are from real world observation for delta and trial data for beta and relate to infection of any kind (including asymptomatic) with two doses of vaccine separated by 4 weeks for Moderna and AZ and 3 weeks for Pfizer in the beta trial and real world data for delta.

Do we have data for hospitalisations and deaths amongst the Vaxxed versus Beta? That seems critical

If it just gives everyone a bad cold, fine. If it crushes the NHS, not so fine

Leon said:

pigeon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.

It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty

MoonRabbit said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.

It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty

Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.

It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty

Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.

Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.

It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty

Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.

Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.

MoonRabbit said:

Leon said:

MoonRabbit said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?

I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people

what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.

Benpointer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.

It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty

Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.

Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.

That's a very good point Richard, easy for me and my retired frieinds to lock-down voluntarily, much harder for others without a government edict.

We shall see.

philiph said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

I fear foreign travel has just ended for another year....

On the bright side, I’m off down the boozer tomorrow night for an early Xmas knees up. Get in quick while you can!

Hmmmmm
#Leon point of geographic order
If it is a South African variant it has evolved in Summer not Winter

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

I think Boris knows that if he fucks this up he's done as PM. Shapps the pilot can whine about airlines as much as he wants but if Boris let's in an Xmas lockdown causing variant he's literally done. The party will have him hanging from his underpants outside the gates of Downing Street with the world's biggest wedgie.

Yes, that's probably the explanation for swift action in this case, although FWIW even if this thing is both nasty (and I doubt it's that nasty) and it manages to get in soon then I think it's too late for it to bugger up Christmas, thank goodness. Not that most of us would pay any attention to another stay at home order anyway.

It really depends. If this IS nasty (and we just don't know yet) people will lock down voluntarily, as RCS has explained to us time and again. So even if the government hangs tough, the streets and pubs will empty

Yes, agreed. I think this is something those set 'against another lockdown in any circumstances' miss... the population will lock themselves down.

Those who can, which is largely those with plenty of disposable income. The less well-off have less choice. So we get economic damage and many deaths, in that scenario. Let's hope this is a false alarm.

Another lockdown - which will surely be worldwide - is almost unthinkably bad. The economic damage alone. Jeez. Travel and hospitality will die out forever. Debt will explode even more. A chain reaction of horrible consequences


This is THE nightmare scenario, and we are staring it in the face. As you say, this could easily be a false alarm, we have had plenty before. But if it pans out as it might, then..... fuck

I am now rising from my torpor and finally heading for the gin, propelled by the Power of Nu

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Leon said:

MoonRabbit said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

More from Planet Plague


"South Africa has been put on the UK’s red list for travel as health officials and ministers scramble to stop the new Covid “super-variant” from entering the UK, with one scientific expert describing it as the worst variant they have seen.

"UK experts believe the variant, B.1.1.529, which is rapidly spreading in South Africa, can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as little as 30 per cent."

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-scrambles-to-block-worst-ever-covid-variant-as-travellers-from-south-africa-urged-to-take-tests-1320497

30% for double jabbed or triple, if it's the former it's not that much worse than delta, if it's the latter then we've got problems.

If it is the latter we are basically looking at a new pandemic, all over again. Surely not as bad, but it means more lockdowns, more packed hospitals, many more deaths. And probably mandatory vax

And who is to say the virus will not evolve AGAIN? Next winter?

I don't wish to be hyperbolic but we are almost certainly witnessing the end of human society as we know it.

You’re on top form tonight my friend! Pour that gin and relax.

I am, clearly, having a laugh. It's all we have left

However this does seem a deeply serious development to me, the government's incredibly swift reaction - in contrast to their usual sloth - tells me this is so. The variant was only identified on Tuesday and already they have banned all travel from SA, two days later?!

It is the most perilous time for humanity since Delta emerged last year

Yes. If you can have a laugh, does this mean you are feeling better now already?

Reactions seem different for everyone. I think a reaction means good immune system.

will you be getting your time off from your employer okay? What do you do Leon?

I'm a self employed knapper of flint sex toys, based in Camden and Grimes Graves

Weirdly, Covid has been quite good for me. Major demand for basalt butt plugs from bored people

what? I have been to Grimey Graves when I was small. But I didn’t realise they made these things.

Don't listen to Leon. Everyone knows you don't find basalt in Suffolk.