The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks – politicalbetting.com

rottenborough said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Tres said:

JosiasJessop said:

Tres said:

I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)

A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).

We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!

No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Tres said:

JosiasJessop said:

Tres said:

I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)

A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).

We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!

No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

Says more about you than 'the average RedWall voter'.

IshmaelZ said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

Benpointer said:

Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

(It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

If you are trying to reply to TSE at 5.48 take the left angle bracket out of his post

Thanks - I wasn't but a less than sign was causing the issue. 👍

Hoist by your own petard, I now see

But I've still got it, if I can diagnose the problem after 2 Negronis.

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?

Maybe, but maybe not

The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh

A bottle of Hermitage might help mebbe?

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?

Maybe, but maybe not

The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh

Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.

Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.

Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

"This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

Malmesbury said:

"UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.

Thoughts:


1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats

Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

"This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.

Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Tres said:

JosiasJessop said:

Tres said:

I think it's time to scrap International Mens Day if it gives rise to more pillocks like Nick Fletcher. Embarrassing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59421259

There is an issue of positive role models for both genders. The example he picks is a bit pants, though.

(I think for all his faults, David Lammy talks very powerfully about the need for positive male role models.)

A quick google tells me the most watched shows of 2021 are Cobra Kai and Bridgerton. Would the characters in these shows be positive role models? (not watched either although I think the first is a spin off from The Karate Kid).

We watched the first episode of Bridgerton the other day. It's a kind of racy costume drama updated for millenials/gen z. It's a bit vacuous and the dialogue's quite clunky, but if feels quite refreshing in some respects (a diverse cast with more or less race blind casting and quite innovative use of modern music). I suspect it is aimed more at a female audience (or at least people of all genders and none who enjoy looking at men with their shirts off). I've not seen Cobra Kai but love the Karate Kid. My personal TV obsession is Succession. There are absolutely no role models in that!

No role models in Succession? Are we watching the same show?

Not seen it, but one man's role model is another's cautionary tale?

The main characters are a psychopathic media mogul and his grasping, back-stabbing and incredibly damaged children. It is absolutely compelling drama and a brilliant satire on power and money but none of the main characters are people you would want to spend more than five minutes with, let alone emulate.

A friend of mine has married into an extremely famous and inconceivably wealthy family. He says Succession is so accurate it comes across as documentary. This is what *they* are like. The sibling rivalry is horrendous and the money is corrosive

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

"This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.

Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu

As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.

Theuniondivvie said:

londonpubman said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍

If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.

RobD said:

Malmesbury said:

"UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

Curiously absent from their website:

https://www.interpol.int/en/Who-we-are/Governance/President/Former-Presidents

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

londonpubman said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍

If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.

HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.

Eabhal said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

londonpubman said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍

If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.

HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.

Doesn't this suggest that the '14 question was leading?

Carnyx said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.

Thoughts:


1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats

Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?

Keep an eye on Kate Forbes. Unless she has the sense (which she might) not to want it. If you are looking for someone who is the personality type shadow to both Salmond and Boris, Kate is your lady. Cleaning Augean stables a speciality.

Against her (we live in a wicked world) is that she is religiously traditional, and SFAICS unafraid to say so.

An issue in the Trans "debate", perhaps.

Perhaps. But she's got some way already. A neatly dressed lady as opposed to a male clown in an ill-fitting suit is a good look to have, too.

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

londonpubman said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

There's a reason why Sturgeon isn't rushing to have an IndyRef 👍

If there is it'll be fuck all to do with Scotland in Union polls.

HYUFD might want to stop a moment and consider why this poll is so different from the one on which he was getting his M&S underwear, not to mention his mathematics, into a twist this morning.

Not so different at all, including DKs only 3% difference, both showing Yes below 2014 levels

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Malmesbury said:

"UAE general accused of torture elected Interpol president"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59417409

But then, this guy got to be head of Interpol...

Curiously absent from their website:

https://www.interpol.int/en/Who-we-are/Governance/President/Former-Presidents

They were all Austrians in the early days - was Interpol just Austria and, er, the 3rd Reich?

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.

Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.

As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

HYUFD is one of ours.

That’s quite rude.

I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂

You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.

Carnyx said:

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.

Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.

As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

HYUFD is one of ours.

That’s quite rude.

I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂

You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.

Or the time when a poll gave Yes a lead in indyref2 and he loudly claimed that the polling company must have been bribed or something.

Benpointer said:

Anyone else getting an issue posting "Body is 1 character too short."?

(It was on a bolockquote post - seems fine on a non-blockquote post.)

(Ha bolockquote - what a typo, eh?)

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?

Maybe, but maybe not

The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh

Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.

That was pretty much my experience too.

Plus a few days of sore arm.

Eabhal said:

Carnyx said:

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.

Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.

As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

HYUFD is one of ours.

That’s quite rude.

I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂

You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.

Or the time when a poll gave Yes a lead in indyref2 and he loudly claimed that the polling company must have been bribed or something.

Wasn't there an issue in some of the Indy polling? It all had to get revised?

moonshine said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?

Maybe, but maybe not

The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh

Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.

That was pretty much my experience too.

Plus a few days of sore arm.

A week of crushing headaches and dizziness for me post my Pfizer booster (post AZN). To the extent my wife was on about phoning 111. Feel alright now though. Probably I shouldn’t have got shitfaced on whisky the day I had it.

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.

Thoughts:


1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats

Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.

MoonRabbit said:

That’s quite rude.

I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Andy_Cooke said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

IshmaelZ said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?

Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat

Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.

It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government

One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.

Donnent-ils, non?

I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

EDIT: seen your edit now

I'd go with leur, not ils.

Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?

I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!

Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

God, that takes me back. For some reason, I still remember the first line of the first page of that:

“In picturam est puella, nomine Cordelia”

"In pictura" I think... It would take the ablative.
I seem to remember Marcus and Sextus featuring prominently too (maybe this is where Jacob Rees Mogg went for inspiration when he was naming his children).

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.

Thoughts:


1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats

Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

Nats demand a vote. Vote denied by Westminster. Ergo Nats are happy. This logic continues to escape me.

English Nats are a passionate, idealistic people driven by justified outrage at the tyranny of vacuum cleaner rules and suchlike, Scotch Nats are cunning, calculating folk caring only about how much they can screw out of the generous English and unconcerned by issues such as basic democracy.

As we all know.

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Continuing an awful set of polls for Scottish Nationalists today.

'Should Scotland remain in the UK or leave the UK Voting Intention:

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Undecideds: 10% (+1)

Undecideds Excluded:

Remain: 59% (+2)
Leave: 41% (-2)

Via
@Survation
, On 18-22 November,
Changes w/ 31 August-1 September.'

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1463908773530120192?s=20

That's one of the worst polls they've had for a long time. I wonder what the reason is for it.

Thoughts:


1. Brexit is seen as a major problem, so Scexit will repeat that
2. Who wants a massive constitutional crisis in the middle of a humanitarian and economic crisis?

What interests me is that stasis rather than the movement. We were told by Nats that as the young are all pro-indy, as they grew older and displaced the wrinkled unionists, we would see inevitable and terminal movement to YES

That absolutely has not happened. The polls are stubbornly bad for YES. This suggests that as YESsers grow up they become more conservative and NO, which is of course what always happens to homo sapiens

This should trouble the more thoughtful Nats

Thoughtful Nats are just fine. They have lots of political jobs in Holyrood and wicked old Westminster, they are unassailable at the moment, have excuses for not blowing themselves up with Ref2, and have lots of spending power with a Blame Backstop in England.

'Hope deferred' (which according to Proverbs makes the heart sick) will be their speciality.

Yes, the Nats are hegemonic in Holyrood and there is no sign of that changing. The diehards will always vote Nat even if they grow frustrated at the lack of indy-movement, and the Don't Knows will be relieved that there is no chaotic new indyref2, not quite yet... forever and ever...


However there is one obvious problem looming: the end of Sturgeon. She can't go on for ever, and the reek of sleaze - which surrounds any one party state - is evermore noticeable. And involves her husband, amongst others. And there is no obvious replacement - no none in the way that she was the obvious successor to Salmond. She hasn't groomed anyone for the role, either, which may be an error

When she goes the Nats might finally slide. But not until?

Nigelb said:

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Another variant, another winter of lockdown, another spike in deaths, another vaccine, and on and on it goes, forever and ever until the death knell of a doomed and blacknened universe sounds across the empty void

China might have killed the world

*eyes gin*

Let's assume for a moment that China started this, either deliberately or by accident*...

Maybe they have done us all a big favour?

There was always going to be a pandemic like this at some point. We are *very* lucky that the IFR for Covid is sub 1%; it could have been >30%. That would have threatened civilisation as we know it.

One has to hope that the long term fall-out of Covid will be much better plans for the control and containment of future pandemics.

(*FWIW I think under 5% chance it was deliberate; 40-50% human created but accidental; c. 50% natural)

Yes, still mired in uncertainty - quite a bit of which is due to Chinese obfuscation, and some just plain scientific uncertainty.
One recent piece of news was a reported link between bat virus samples from Laos and the Wuhan lab, which I was previously unaware of.

As for the 'favour', no.

I was being ironic but... we did get lucky with Covid as a wake-up call. Sadly, I suspect it will all be forgotten long before a high-IFR pandemic comes along.

Doubt it.
Now big pharma and the testing companies have realised how much revenue is there for first movers, they are going to keep going significant active research programs into dealing with novel viruses.
Institutional memory will last a generation, by which time medtech will probably be sufficiently advanced for it not to be a worry.

Leon said:

moonshine said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

"This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.

Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu

As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.

What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.

Worth noting how fast this happens, now

This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa

moonshine said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

Shut the fecking border with SA NOW!

Agree... but chances are it's already here and circulating?

Maybe, but maybe not

The Saffers discovered Nu not by sequencing but because it can be detected by a form of simple PCR Test.

If it is in Europe then our PCR tests should also be picking it up? Seems they are not? Though all is shrouded in the fog of plague-war


And I still feel fecking terrible 28 hours after my Moderna Booster. Ugh

Sorry to hear. When did you start feeling shite? My experience was it started 24 hours after booster and lasted another 24 hours.

That was pretty much my experience too.

Plus a few days of sore arm.

A week of crushing headaches and dizziness for me post my Pfizer booster (post AZN). To the extent my wife was on about phoning 111. Feel alright now though. Probably I shouldn’t have got shitfaced on whisky the day I had it.

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

"This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.

Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu

As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.

What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.

Worth noting how fast this happens, now

This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world @Leon is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa

Amazing!

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

"This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.

Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu

As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.

What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.

Worth noting how fast this happens, now

This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa

The good doctor Pagel has noted how this particular bastard variant can be quite easily tracked on PCR tests in near real time.

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.

Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.

As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

HYUFD is one of ours.

That’s quite rude.

I like HYUFD and always read his posts. Suspect I stand side by side with him in being a Christian and never voted Labour.

Can’t believe he seriously thought Tories back in lead from a Kantor poll showing shrinking lead though.

As a fresh pair of eyes, I like Stodges posts best. Hugely informative. Like a scientist of betting.

Sooner Dura Ace writes the auto biography the better, better than little two sentence rides in a fast machine, take us on longer journeys in it, whole storys with a beginning middle and end. 🙂

You missed the recent time when HYUFD was banned for continuing to post a Bill Gates vaccine conspiracy even after we pointed out it was utterly preposterous.

IshmaelZ said:

eek said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Under 8s responding to on-line polls?

I expect the average RedWall voter found Boris losing his place and mentioning Peppa Pig at a CBI talk hilarious, they are not exactly huge fans of corporate boardroom types

No, I suspect that if they saw it at all they thought "what a twat". Like most of the rest of us did. Anyone trying to diminish what a car crash that was is an idiot, no offence intended.

Except clearly they didn't, given the latest poll after Peppa Pig gate gives the Tories a 3% lead.

Boris knows his audience. I would not be surprised if it was partly an act by BoJo to go back to lovable Boris for the benefit of the RedWall and show he is still not a typical Tory leader easily at home with business executives but the same populist pro Brexit leader they voted for in 2019 who they could have a laugh and a drink with having previously always voted Labour.

I might be wrong as I am a newbie at this and already corrected by Mike Smithson on polling today, but I think your narrative might be wrong because compared to previous Kantor poll Labour up two and lead cut by two - and Labour up six and lead cut from thirteen to three from the September Kantor.

As you are new here, it's probably worth pointing out that every village / forum has it's village idiot / idiots.

HYUFD is one of ours.

But an idiot savant. A couple of posters miss the savant bit

Carnyx said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Andy_Cooke said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

IshmaelZ said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?

Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat

Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.

It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government

One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.

Donnent-ils, non?

I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

EDIT: seen your edit now

I'd go with leur, not ils.

Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?

I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!

Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

God, that takes me back. For some reason, I still remember the first line of the first page of that:

“In picturam est puella, nomine Cordelia”

"In pictura" I think... It would take the ablative.
I seem to remember Marcus and Sextus featuring prominently too (maybe this is where Jacob Rees Mogg went for inspiration when he was naming his children).

Lucky sods. The first thing I had to learn was the table table. The declensions of mensa, which corresponded rouighly

A/the table [as subject]
O table (as in asking it out for the evening)
table [as object]
of a/the table
to the table (as in give a Christmas present to)
by the table

This really blew my 10 year old mind ...

rkrkrk said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

Leon said:

Presentation about the Nu Variant in South Africa

Kicks in properly at about 25 minutes, is summarised at about 34 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=2999s


Quite bleak if you are South African. A new and ghastly wave looks inevitable there. But difficult to say what it will do to a highly vaccinated, richer country

Would suspect at the very least we'll be having another round of updated vaccines by March?

Did you not see MaxPB's comment earlier

6 months to get a vaccine for a variant ready
+ another 3 months to get 50million doses ready.

And, correct me if I am wrong but, the booster jabs have not been modified for the delta variant AIUI. We are still on the original vaccines.

Moderna has got a beta variant vaccine available but no one has ordered it because delta is much closer to alpha and original COVID so the current vaccines work better anyway. I suspect this will end up the same way, it will turn out to be similar enough to be outcompeted by delta just as the beta variant was.

But that's not the case? All the South African experts are saying Nu outcompetes Delta, which is one reason why they are so concerned

They reckon Nu will soon be 100% of cases in SA

What they don't know yet is why it does this, does it cause more severe disease, does it evade the vax, and so on. They don't know much but what they know has them worried

"This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)"

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

Then number of cases is a lot lower now than then, that's one reason why. It's probably 20-30% more transmissive in a small unvaccinated population, that will find every single unvaccinated person very quickly, especially if it dilutes immunity just enough for people to get infected to pass it on but get no symptoms (which is plausible).

The worry would then, again, be for those countries who ducked an exit wave because suddenly a variant which vaccinated people can get and easily transmit will mean unvaccinated people all get it very, vey quickly.

Yes, in which case you may be right that closing the borders is pointless, it will arrive very soon and if it can smash Delta then it is incredibly infectious, and it will reach every single vulnerable person within weeks

Bleak. We have to hope that the vaccines remain effective and that the antivirals do the same, and that prior infection with Delta or Alpha, etc, still provide immunity to Nu

As I've said previously, I'd be shocked if there was any significant level of immunity dilution with a variant that also maintained the same level of disease severity. If anything Nu could end up being the true endgame, delta fortified immunity and Nu may end up finding those last few holdouts. Once again it's imperative that everyone gets vaccinated and boosted ASAP. It is our only line of defence.

What seems likely is that the pacific countries that had tentatively started to open their borders and gonna lose their shit again over this.

Worth noting how fast this happens, now

This new SA variant, Nu, was only identified on Tuesday. TUESDAY. Two days ago. 48 hours later the world is freaking out and HMG is considering closing the borders to much of Africa

The good doctor Pagel has noted how this particular bastard variant can be quite easily tracked on PCR tests in near real time.

Feels mad to say it, but I think Leon is right that we need to act fast. Get S. Africa and nearby low sequencing onto the red list. Buys time for therapeutics & better understanding of whether vaccines are as effective against this one.

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

IshmaelZ said:

Farooq said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh, Con are back in the lead are they? But, but, but what about Pepper Piggate????

Pepper Pig is starting to look like a masterstroke. Everyone with kids will know about it, so I wonder if it actually made Boris look more ordinary and relatable. And maybe losing his place in the speech just reminded people how you get tired and lose concentration when you have a new-born infant. What can Sir Keir do to counter this guy?

Today he said as a prosecutor he would have arrested yesterday's people smugglers last week, which considering they came from Germany into France is simply an incredulous thing to say and assumes France were complicent if they knew and then ignored the threat

Good luck trying to push this "Starmer said we should arrest people smugglers and that's bad" line. I really mean it. Fortune favours the brave and this is a brave attack line.

It is the ultimate Mr Hindsight and it is not brave, just incomprehensible when he has no jurisdiction and is de facto a criticism of the French government

One should never, ever criticise the French Governemnt. Donnez-ils un break.

Donnent-ils, non?

I don't think so. The donnez is the vous-imperative form, and the -ils isn't the subject. Big_G is older than I am so I am using the vous form rather than the tu.

EDIT: seen your edit now

I'd go with leur, not ils.

Well I knew I'd get something wrong.

EDIT: now I think we're both wrong. "Eux"?

I can't remember. I probably learnt it from this 30 years ago!

Je parle bien le français. Je l'apprends dans un livre!

Ego loqui Latin valde bene. Ego discere ex libro.

With that Latin I'm not sure if you got beyond book one... Happy memories of Ecce Romani.

I can't remember the name of the book that we studied in Latin - except I do remember it was rather dark at times.

The book started following a family in Roman times and fairly standard scenarios and vocabulary things, learning about family etc . . . then branching out into other people in the town. Like the barber, for which one of the stories is about the barber using a sharp blade to cut people's beards then he cuts someone's neck and kills them. That came rather out of the blue and left me permanently petrified of what was quite literally a cut-throat blade. 😲

And the book ends with the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, and the death of pretty much every character we'd learnt about that year while studying the course.

Sounds like the Cambridge Latin Course.

https://www.clc.cambridgescp.com/home-clc