How the most ill-tempered PMQs in years is being reported – politicalbetting.com

AlistairM said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.

And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.

LostPassword said:

state_go_away said:

Cyclefree said:

AlistairM said:

LostPassword said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
49m
BREAKING: The end of elite women's sport has just been announced.

Transgender athletes should not have to lower testosterone to compete, IOC says as it changes guidelines

So there's the trade off:

Keep your tackle and make it to the Olympic semi-final.

Get it chopped off and win a medal.

The International Athletics Federation still have their own testosterone rule that was stricter than the one dropped by the IOC, but I think the IOC are saying you'd need copious formal evidence to exclude even pre-op transgender athletes.

So in your scenario they might not even need to sacrifice the dangly bits.

It has been obvious that as soon as you let transgender male->female athletes compete against naturally born females that it would finish women's sport. They just will not be able to compete. It is a disgrace. There were 3 options and they have picked the worst. May as well just be done with it and no longer have any male/female categories.

The other two options in my view are:
1. No competition for transgender athletes (needs of the many outweighing needs of the few)
2. Creating new categories.

A female sportswoman who doped herself to have the amount of testosterone a transwoman sportsperson is permitted would be banned. But a trans athlete - a male claiming to be a woman - with that amount of testosterone in his body as a result of male puberty can legally compete. How can this possibly be fair? And isn't this discrimination against women?

It is a disgrace. Just as allowing men claiming to be women and convicted of sexual offences against women to be housed in womens' prisons is a disgrace. There was an interesting debate on this in the House of Lords yesterday where Ms Chakrabarti once again showed what an incoherent moron she is.

a spineless decision going against common sense. Most drastic actions in life have consequences. Changing gender and not being able to compete in the new gender category is just a consequence ,presumably a small one if the main wish is to change gender. Why do we pretend that anything remotely based to do with LGBT rights has to have zero downside for the person?

What downsides to being gay do you think there should be?

Given the very many downsides historically enforced on people who were different it's understandable they'd want to struggle against them.

But the issue of fair competition is one where they create a downside for others, that isn't created by having equal rights to LGBT people in almost every other conceivable situation.

well the downside in this case is not being able to compete in womens sport events which is very reasonable given the advantages in sport of being male born. To try and eliminate this downside is illogical -

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.

This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.

Alistair said:

Encouraging case numbers

Yes, you might have made a good shout the other day when you boldly declared VC Day. I thought it was a very brave call from someone who is usually fairly conservative on covid, but you might turn out to have been right.

If cases start falling with schools unmasked and in full leaf, chilly weather, zero restrictions and almost no behaviour mitigation in England's major cities, Ozcam's razor suggests the fabled herd immunity might be with us.

CarlottaVance said:

Fergus Ewing has been very punchy since he went to the back benches - particularly over road-building in rural Scotland and dualling the A96. Punchy to the extent he's just had to tell the Tory benches that "I'm slightly embarrassed by you applauding me, keep it quiet please"

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1461005055235133442?s=20

Yep, he asked Lorna Slater, the profoundly unimpressive Green minister, a very unhelpful question earlier today. He's part of a famous SNP family but notably out-of-step with Nicola's left wing turn. Lots of tensions in the SNP just now.

eek said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?

Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.

well most of Europe and indeed the rest of the UK is still in a authoritarian facemask mandate so I give credit to Boris for resisting that

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.

This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.

Yes, I think few grasp this and many think the end of the pandemic only comes with zero covid. That's palpable nonsense as, under such a measure, we have been in a flu pandemic for centuries.

Afternoon all

The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.

If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?

I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hmm, I remember some PBers saying the PM didn't break the rules.

On his visit to Hexham hospital Boris Johnson claims that “there was barely 30 seconds when I wasn’t wearing a mask… and I apologised for it.”

Until this moment Downing Street has not even admitted that he broke the rules.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1460993252237234182

Really - it was pretty clear that he did I'd have thought?

stodge said:

Afternoon all

The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.

If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?

I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.

How could Boris do that - he's already done one reshuffle and tomorrow should be a day of straightforward confirmation of existing (heck within the 2019 manifesto) commitments and instead is going to be a grade A already leaked disaster zone...

Malmesbury said:

maaarsh said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AlistairM said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.

And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.

We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.

I'm not very sure that a big fall isn't possible. The real question is that once the vaccination program gets down into the younger children, what effect does this have in the medium term.

It's definitely possible, we've had big falls before. Just not sure it's desirable anymore as anything other than a phasing difference.

stodge said:

Afternoon all

The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.

If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?

I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.

Fair points. His one great call (whether accidental or otherwise) over covid restrictions will rapidly fade into the rearview mirror when other countries catch up. If people visit, say, France this coming summer sans restrictions they probably won't remember (or even know!) that France has more severe restrictions now.

eek said:

Just think after this committee the next thing Boris has to look forward to is the Railway Infrastructure "lipstick on a pig, sans lipstick, sans pig, sans glitter but with added shit" announcement tomorrow. One that will upset virtually every Red Wall seat outside of the the North East (it does upset Teesside but doesn't actually impact them that much).

He's in the merde this week. No doubt.

A litany of f*ckups and blustered promises now being busted.

Called it.

Tory MP Nigel Mills says he will vote for the Labour motion tonight.

Sounds like he feels he can’t justify to his locals that he voted against “because Labour forced the timetable”

The power of the Tory whip much diminished after the past fortnight’s battering

https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1461010651917213713

maaarsh said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AlistairM said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.

And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.

We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.

I disagree. The evidence is that the boosters will greatly increase immunity to symptomatic infection. As will increasing vaccinations among children. So you'd expect a decline in infections in response to greater immunity.

maaarsh said:

Malmesbury said:

maaarsh said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AlistairM said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.

And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.

We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.

I'm not very sure that a big fall isn't possible. The real question is that once the vaccination program gets down into the younger children, what effect does this have in the medium term.

It's definitely possible, we've had big falls before. Just not sure it's desirable anymore as anything other than a phasing difference.

Indeed so. Because people are obsessed – completely axiomatically infatuated – with rises in 'cases', regardless of the base that rise is from. So a big fall today means a big rise tomorrow, and the now standard panic, irrationality and hysteria from the usual suspects.

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.

but you assume I am a tory rather than a tory voter (at present for the reasons i have given) . I have never bene a member of a political party and form my own opinions . Therefore I dont scheme to keep the tories in just vote for them when I think they are worthy of it

I made no such assumption - you are a Tory voter considering that "Starmer is wrong on covid". I don't agree but fine. So how do you keep Starmer and hiw wrong away from power - has to be by removing Johnson which means not voting Tory in the mid-term.

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.

This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.

I was deploying my usual subtle satire about "are we all immune". I am confused about your last point though. You and others have been cheering on the drop in numbers we saw a few weeks ago because the numbers have to drop and didn't we get the strategy right. Are you now saying that 30k average is going to sustain forever in which case why care whether numbers drop or not?

In the medium term this is where we're at, over the longer term we'll get better vaccines and ultimately there will be enough latent immunity that COVID is just not very dangerous to anyone but the very old and very sick (I mean we're almost already there). There exists no scenario where COVID is eliminated or eradicated.

LostPassword said:

I know that Prime Minister's Questions is supposed to be about the PM answering questions (but honestly most of the questions asked aren't looking for answers), but I think a lot of the public, if they notice, will think it's fair enough for Johnson to ask a question back about Starmer's double-jobbing, and they might feel there's a bit of an establishment cover up with the Speaker telling him he's not allowed to.

You can do it rhetorically once or twice. But as with most things you cannot take the piss and pretend it's a mutual q and a session.

AlistairM said:

AlistairM said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

38,263 and 201 deaths and 778 patients admitted

Cases down almost 1K from last week. Has the last week been the back-to-school surge? If it has only lasted a week then that is a very good sign.

Just thinking about this some more. I think we will have a very good idea over the course of the next month whether the UK has reached herd immunity. If we have no restrictions, schools are back and cases are declining from the current high levels then I don't see what else it could be.

I think we can already say that we have. Cases have been at the current level more or less for months. Hopefully cases will start reducing too, especially if we keep boosting, as there is good evidence for significant reductions on infection with the booster.

Tobias Ellwood tearing Boris Johnson a new arsehole here.

RochdalePioneers said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.

Spot on. Like it or hate it (or him, if you like) Johnson delivered a brexit, and has muddled through a pandemic. He cannot do the day to day job of being PM. The conservatives have an 80 seat majority, with new boundaries coming that favour them even more. Time to get shot of the liability and get someone in who does details, understands a bit more how normal people live, and isn't Johnson.

LostPassword said:

maaarsh said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AlistairM said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.

And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.

We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.

I disagree. The evidence is that the boosters will greatly increase immunity to symptomatic infection. As will increasing vaccinations among children. So you'd expect a decline in infections in response to greater immunity.

Fair point, if boosters really do offer lasting protection against infection - clearly too early to say and there was a stage when 2 jabs was going to do the business.

Ultimately now it's just a question of the balance between new jabs/infections, and waning of protection from previous jabs and infections. If the 3rd jab genuinely does offer a waning free protection then great, but it's the same equalty to be solved for.

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MaxPB said:

The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.

I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.

I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.

You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.

This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.

And also why we should stop routine testing and only test at hospitals etc when its needed.

Slackbladder said:

Nigelb said:

Tory MP Andrew Rosindell on £20 uplift to UC: "I think there are people that quite like getting the extra £20 but maybe they don’t need it."

Andrew Rosindell, on banning MPs from 2nd jobs: “We have to realise we have human beings who have families & responsibilities”
https://twitter.com/Zero_4/status/1460747205405556741

Dear God.... why do we have these people.

Safe seats where the winner is a monkey with the appropriate coloured rosette.

UK cases by specimen date

Meanwhile, in social care news...

One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas


https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1461008989999841281?t=58_m1-Eh0kw6NVeUnwMtkw&s=19

What's the best Conservative strategy here?

Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.

Or remove him before he makes things even worse?

A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.

Nigelb said:

Tory MP Andrew Rosindell on £20 uplift to UC: "I think there are people that quite like getting the extra £20 but maybe they don’t need it."

Andrew Rosindell, on banning MPs from 2nd jobs: “We have to realise we have human beings who have families & responsibilities”
https://twitter.com/Zero_4/status/1460747205405556741

He really isn't the brightest star in the Tory firmament, urban Essex version of the old county squire backbencher

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?

Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.

Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.

Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.

Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.

Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.

Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.

Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.

Case summary

UK deaths

Hope the booster theory is right and a fall is nothing to worry about because it appears we are going to get a case fall rather than a plateau -

http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!

Age related data

maaarsh said:

Hope the booster theory is right and a fall is nothing to worry about because it appears we are going to get a case fall rather than a plateau -

http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!

Log chart, so cases in over 65s have now very nearly halved in the last 4 weeks whilst the headline number has bounced around due to irrelevant school kid cases.

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?

Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.

Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.

Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.

Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.

Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.

Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.

Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.

yes even to the extent when cases did rise and Labour and the media calling for facemasks again (despite no evidence they were working in Scotland or Wales) he resisted. Fair play a decision based on courage and conviction to his fundamental beliefs I think

eek said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

state_go_away said:

RochdalePioneers said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.

but you assume I am a tory rather than a tory voter (at present for the reasons i have given) . I have never bene a member of a political party and form my own opinions . Therefore I dont scheme to keep the tories in just vote for them when I think they are worthy of it

I made no such assumption - you are a Tory voter considering that "Starmer is wrong on covid". I don't agree but fine. So how do you keep Starmer and hiw wrong away from power - has to be by removing Johnson which means not voting Tory in the mid-term.

I am afraid you have let this forum cloud your thinking as to how most normal people vote - they vote for a party because at the time of voting they think that party is best . Its only politicos and party hacks that scheme to the extent you mention which is fine but I am not such a breed.

Nope, most people vote whichever party they think is the least worst option out of the two parties likely to win that seat.

so cynical!

Anabobazina said:

Fair points. His one great call (whether accidental or otherwise) over covid restrictions will rapidly fade into the rearview mirror when other countries catch up. If people visit, say, France this coming summer sans restrictions they probably won't remember (or even know!) that France has more severe restrictions now.

Indeed and remember not so long ago a lot of people were having a go at New Zealand and Jacinda Ardern.

Yes, she made mistakes and the policy of trying to eradicate the virus was wrong but they are now at 82% doubly vaccinated moving into summer and the winter/spring restrictions over there are being eased with Auckland set to re-open before Christmas.

Where the UK (and Israel and a few others) were right was getting the vaccination programmes moving quickly - the first UK vaccination was early December last year. Naturally, those who vaccinated first have seen the benefits first but the corollary of that is those who vaccinated earliest need to get the boosters moving first as the efficacy of the initial double vaccinations fades as well as getting the vaccinations down the age cohorts.

We are further down the road than many countries - that doesn't mean those countries can't and won't get their booster programmes in place just as they got their vaccination programmes in place.

maaarsh said:

maaarsh said:

Hope the booster theory is right and a fall is nothing to worry about because it appears we are going to get a case fall rather than a plateau -

http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!

Log chart, so cases in over 65s have now very nearly halved in the last 4 weeks whilst the headline number has bounced around due to irrelevant school kid cases.

England only data, for over 65s.....

state_go_away said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?

Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.

Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.

Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.

Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.

Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.

Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.

Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.

yes even to the extent when cases did rise and Labour and the media calling for facemasks again (despite no evidence they were working in Scotland or Wales) he resisted. Fair play a decision based on courage and conviction to his fundamental beliefs I think

Absolutely.

I think overall the UK has had one of the very best responses to the pandemic globally. Only Israel handled the vaccines better. It is incredible that we have had vaccines in place for nearly a year now, and yet the UK is still one of the only nations to have lifted all legal restrictions.

What is truly appalling is that in the next few weeks will mark the first anniversary of vaccine rollout beginning - and there's likely to be more European nations in lockdown than without legal restrictions at that point. This winter going back into lockdown seems more likely than lifting restrictions for quite a few countries.

Any country that is in lockdown over a year after vaccines became available has catastrophically failed.

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

state_go_away said:

The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while

What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?

Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.

Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.

Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.

Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.

Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.

Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.

Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.

I'm no fan of this government - and I'll happily criticise some of the pandemic response - but this is one call that I think they got right and it took some balls. Not cost free, obviously, and against polling at the time - the easy thing to do would have been to keep restrictions a little longer. We haven't yet seen exactly how it is all going to play out, but signs are (from my pov) that it was a good call.

IshmaelZ said:

LostPassword said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, in social care news...

One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas


https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1461008989999841281?t=58_m1-Eh0kw6NVeUnwMtkw&s=19

What's the best Conservative strategy here?

Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.

Or remove him before he makes things even worse?

A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.

When Major took over he was able to drop the unpopular policy of the poll tax, and that made a big difference. Similarly when Johnson replaced May he was able to offer a way out of the Brexit morass that had trapped May.

Would a new leader be able to offer new solutions to the high cost of providing social care? What is the key weakness of the Johnson premiership that a new leader could fix?

If there is something a new leader can do differently and better then they should do so sooner rather than later. If all they offer is a different set of empty promises and lame excuses then the best they can hope for is to time a honeymoon to coincide with a GE.

Reinstate hs3

HS3 and Eastern leg HS2, binning it really doesn't save that much.

An exhausting day for Boris: PMQs and all the prep beforehand, then the Liaison Committee where he is still being grilled by the chairs of Commons’ Committees, then he due to face Conservative MPs at 5pm for the “1922”.

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1461011443264983043?s=20

"all the prep beforehand"? Shome mishtake shurely?

Pretty sure after that exchange between Johnson and Jeremy Hunt about the NHS workforce that the Prime Minister doesn't have a clue what the health select committee chair is asking him for and how it would work.
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1461016233290129412

Pretty sure that the Prime Minister doesn't have a clue what anybody is asking him for and how it would work.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Helpful update from @PA: "The Government sought to clarify that it has not lost the minutes of a meeting between Randox and a health minister, only that it cannot find them at the moment."

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1460983127153823746

Does that mean some poor bugger is trying to make them up from scratch ?

See my post at 3pm.

I once won a case because I idly looked at the metadata of a disclosed Word copy of meeting minutes allegedly created 8 months previously. They had been typed up by my oppo that morning. A demand for the notes they had been created from prompted a rapid settlement offer.

Don’t send documents as Word copies kids.

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Helpful update from @PA: "The Government sought to clarify that it has not lost the minutes of a meeting between Randox and a health minister, only that it cannot find them at the moment."

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1460983127153823746

Does that mean some poor bugger is trying to make them up from scratch ?

See my post at 3pm.

I once won a case because I idly looked at the metadata of a disclosed Word copy of meeting minutes allegedly created 8 months previously. They had been typed up by my oppo that morning. A demand for the notes they had been created from prompted a rapid settlement offer.

Don’t send documents as Word copies kids.

Yep I forgot to add that bit
How to fake a document

1) Disconnect from internet
2) Change your system clock
3) ensure the font you are using existed at the time the document was "created"
4) use print to PDF to get an untraceable document.

maaarsh said:

Malmesbury said:

maaarsh said:

maaarsh said:

Hope the booster theory is right and a fall is nothing to worry about because it appears we are going to get a case fall rather than a plateau -

http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!

Log chart, so cases in over 65s have now very nearly halved in the last 4 weeks whilst the headline number has bounced around due to irrelevant school kid cases.

England only data, for over 65s.....

Comparing the two would suggest your chart is about to see 3 days of very steep falls unless Alex Selby's forward-cast calculations don't work out in this case.

That would be nice.

One thing that this epidemic has taught me is that a case model plus £2.50 will buy you... a coffee at Starbucks...

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Helpful update from @PA: "The Government sought to clarify that it has not lost the minutes of a meeting between Randox and a health minister, only that it cannot find them at the moment."

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1460983127153823746

Does that mean some poor bugger is trying to make them up from scratch ?

See my post at 3pm.

I once won a case because I idly looked at the metadata of a disclosed Word copy of meeting minutes allegedly created 8 months previously. They had been typed up by my oppo that morning. A demand for the notes they had been created from prompted a rapid settlement offer.

Don’t send documents as Word copies kids.

To be fair it takes 8 months sometimes in organisations to get around to writing minutes because (as someone who does it occasionally) they are fkin boring to do

TimS said:

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, in social care news...

One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas


https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1461008989999841281?t=58_m1-Eh0kw6NVeUnwMtkw&s=19

What's the best Conservative strategy here?

Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.

Or remove him before he makes things even worse?

A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.

Were I Rishi / Liz my plan would be to get Boris through to May / June next year and replace him after what is likely to be a disastrous set of local elections following April's long announced so mostly forgotten tax rises.

This is the thing that infuriates me most about the Tories. They're so good at timing their leadership changes. It doesn't matter how disastrous the previous leader was, they go through such a Dr Who style transformation every time that the electorate seem immediately to treat them as a new party. Same will happen for Rishi.

I agree that turning out Boris now would be a bit early. Too long for things to go wrong before the next election.

While Labour still gets blamed for the Winter of Discontent.