The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
Nonsense, Covid is never going away, immunity wanes over time, hence most people can look forward to 3-6 bouts of flu in their lifetime, and Covid will be the same, although likely more frequent as more transmissible.
Herd immunity doesn't look like a lasting fall in cases, it looks like a rippling steady state where cases are broadly flat over time with any small dip leading to an immunity deficit which drives a small rise.
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.
And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.
Fergus Ewing has been very punchy since he went to the back benches - particularly over road-building in rural Scotland and dualling the A96. Punchy to the extent he's just had to tell the Tory benches that "I'm slightly embarrassed by you applauding me, keep it quiet please"
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 · 49m BREAKING: The end of elite women's sport has just been announced.
Transgender athletes should not have to lower testosterone to compete, IOC says as it changes guidelines
So there's the trade off:
Keep your tackle and make it to the Olympic semi-final.
Get it chopped off and win a medal.
The International Athletics Federation still have their own testosterone rule that was stricter than the one dropped by the IOC, but I think the IOC are saying you'd need copious formal evidence to exclude even pre-op transgender athletes.
So in your scenario they might not even need to sacrifice the dangly bits.
It has been obvious that as soon as you let transgender male->female athletes compete against naturally born females that it would finish women's sport. They just will not be able to compete. It is a disgrace. There were 3 options and they have picked the worst. May as well just be done with it and no longer have any male/female categories.
The other two options in my view are: 1. No competition for transgender athletes (needs of the many outweighing needs of the few) 2. Creating new categories.
A female sportswoman who doped herself to have the amount of testosterone a transwoman sportsperson is permitted would be banned. But a trans athlete - a male claiming to be a woman - with that amount of testosterone in his body as a result of male puberty can legally compete. How can this possibly be fair? And isn't this discrimination against women?
It is a disgrace. Just as allowing men claiming to be women and convicted of sexual offences against women to be housed in womens' prisons is a disgrace. There was an interesting debate on this in the House of Lords yesterday where Ms Chakrabarti once again showed what an incoherent moron she is.
a spineless decision going against common sense. Most drastic actions in life have consequences. Changing gender and not being able to compete in the new gender category is just a consequence ,presumably a small one if the main wish is to change gender. Why do we pretend that anything remotely based to do with LGBT rights has to have zero downside for the person?
What downsides to being gay do you think there should be?
Given the very many downsides historically enforced on people who were different it's understandable they'd want to struggle against them.
But the issue of fair competition is one where they create a downside for others, that isn't created by having equal rights to LGBT people in almost every other conceivable situation.
well the downside in this case is not being able to compete in womens sport events which is very reasonable given the advantages in sport of being male born. To try and eliminate this downside is illogical -
Since Starmer wept crocodile tears for Sir David Amess and called for more civillity in politics he has accused the PM of leading his party into the sewwer and called the PM a coward. Starmer's hypocrisy is unbounded.
That would be a fair statement if the PM hadn't lead his party into a sewer of shite of his own making while also being a coward.
The pot is indeed black but that doesn't mean it's wrong about the kettle.
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.
This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.
Just think after this committee the next thing Boris has to look forward to is the Railway Infrastructure "lipstick on a pig, sans lipstick, sans pig, sans glitter but with added shit" announcement tomorrow. One that will upset virtually every Red Wall seat outside of the the North East (it does upset Teesside but doesn't actually impact them that much).
Yes, you might have made a good shout the other day when you boldly declared VC Day. I thought it was a very brave call from someone who is usually fairly conservative on covid, but you might turn out to have been right.
If cases start falling with schools unmasked and in full leaf, chilly weather, zero restrictions and almost no behaviour mitigation in England's major cities, Ozcam's razor suggests the fabled herd immunity might be with us.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 · 49m BREAKING: The end of elite women's sport has just been announced.
Transgender athletes should not have to lower testosterone to compete, IOC says as it changes guidelines
So there's the trade off:
Keep your tackle and make it to the Olympic semi-final.
Get it chopped off and win a medal.
The International Athletics Federation still have their own testosterone rule that was stricter than the one dropped by the IOC, but I think the IOC are saying you'd need copious formal evidence to exclude even pre-op transgender athletes.
So in your scenario they might not even need to sacrifice the dangly bits.
It has been obvious that as soon as you let transgender male->female athletes compete against naturally born females that it would finish women's sport. They just will not be able to compete. It is a disgrace. There were 3 options and they have picked the worst. May as well just be done with it and no longer have any male/female categories.
The other two options in my view are: 1. No competition for transgender athletes (needs of the many outweighing needs of the few) 2. Creating new categories.
A female sportswoman who doped herself to have the amount of testosterone a transwoman sportsperson is permitted would be banned. But a trans athlete - a male claiming to be a woman - with that amount of testosterone in his body as a result of male puberty can legally compete. How can this possibly be fair? And isn't this discrimination against women?
It is a disgrace. Just as allowing men claiming to be women and convicted of sexual offences against women to be housed in womens' prisons is a disgrace. There was an interesting debate on this in the House of Lords yesterday where Ms Chakrabarti once again showed what an incoherent moron she is.
As I posted a few weeks ago, my goto question about the rights of trans wrt prison and other spaces is simple:
"What is to stop Wayne Couzens (convicted sex murderer) from claiming to self-identify as a woman and asking to be moved to a women's prison?"
Fergus Ewing has been very punchy since he went to the back benches - particularly over road-building in rural Scotland and dualling the A96. Punchy to the extent he's just had to tell the Tory benches that "I'm slightly embarrassed by you applauding me, keep it quiet please"
Yep, he asked Lorna Slater, the profoundly unimpressive Green minister, a very unhelpful question earlier today. He's part of a famous SNP family but notably out-of-step with Nicola's left wing turn. Lots of tensions in the SNP just now.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
Yes even as his avowed opponent, I find it hard to argue with that rationale. He does look to have got the one big call spot on. But, we'll see.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
well most of Europe and indeed the rest of the UK is still in a authoritarian facemask mandate so I give credit to Boris for resisting that
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.
And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.
We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.
This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.
Yes, I think few grasp this and many think the end of the pandemic only comes with zero covid. That's palpable nonsense as, under such a measure, we have been in a flu pandemic for centuries.
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.
This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.
I was deploying my usual subtle satire about "are we all immune". I am confused about your last point though. You and others have been cheering on the drop in numbers we saw a few weeks ago because the numbers have to drop and didn't we get the strategy right. Are you now saying that 30k average is going to sustain forever in which case why care whether numbers drop or not?
The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.
If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?
I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.
And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.
We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.
I'm not very sure that a big fall isn't possible. The real question is that once the vaccination program gets down into the younger children, what effect does this have in the medium term.
Having been glued to the TV all afternoon, I'd like to offer a short, albeit crude, summary.
The current Tory government is just a fucking gravy train, isn't it? It won't end well.
"You don't see Members going off and doing a shift at Maccie D's" - says Karl Turner MP ... "These jobs are paying staggering amounts of money and they aren't the jobs that they (the public) recognize as second jobs for them" https://twitter.com/RachBradleyITV/status/1461009975631826955
The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.
If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?
I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.
How could Boris do that - he's already done one reshuffle and tomorrow should be a day of straightforward confirmation of existing (heck within the 2019 manifesto) commitments and instead is going to be a grade A already leaked disaster zone...
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 · 49m BREAKING: The end of elite women's sport has just been announced.
Transgender athletes should not have to lower testosterone to compete, IOC says as it changes guidelines
So there's the trade off:
Keep your tackle and make it to the Olympic semi-final.
Get it chopped off and win a medal.
The International Athletics Federation still have their own testosterone rule that was stricter than the one dropped by the IOC, but I think the IOC are saying you'd need copious formal evidence to exclude even pre-op transgender athletes.
So in your scenario they might not even need to sacrifice the dangly bits.
It has been obvious that as soon as you let transgender male->female athletes compete against naturally born females that it would finish women's sport. They just will not be able to compete. It is a disgrace. There were 3 options and they have picked the worst. May as well just be done with it and no longer have any male/female categories.
The other two options in my view are: 1. No competition for transgender athletes (needs of the many outweighing needs of the few) 2. Creating new categories.
A female sportswoman who doped herself to have the amount of testosterone a transwoman sportsperson is permitted would be banned. But a trans athlete - a male claiming to be a woman - with that amount of testosterone in his body as a result of male puberty can legally compete. How can this possibly be fair? And isn't this discrimination against women?
It is a disgrace. Just as allowing men claiming to be women and convicted of sexual offences against women to be housed in womens' prisons is a disgrace. There was an interesting debate on this in the House of Lords yesterday where Ms Chakrabarti once again showed what an incoherent moron she is.
a spineless decision going against common sense. Most drastic actions in life have consequences. Changing gender and not being able to compete in the new gender category is just a consequence ,presumably a small one if the main wish is to change gender. Why do we pretend that anything remotely based to do with LGBT rights has to have zero downside for the person?
Why is it that so many transgender male->female athletes want to compete in sport and so few female->male ones do? If people want to change their gender then that is entirely up to them but they should do so knowing that they can't compete in sport. Why are we trampling on the rights of billions to protect the "rights" of a few?
This is the reality of a post liberal society. You have to choose which type of tyranny you prefer.
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.
And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.
We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.
I'm not very sure that a big fall isn't possible. The real question is that once the vaccination program gets down into the younger children, what effect does this have in the medium term.
It's definitely possible, we've had big falls before. Just not sure it's desirable anymore as anything other than a phasing difference.
The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.
If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?
I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.
Fair points. His one great call (whether accidental or otherwise) over covid restrictions will rapidly fade into the rearview mirror when other countries catch up. If people visit, say, France this coming summer sans restrictions they probably won't remember (or even know!) that France has more severe restrictions now.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.
but you assume I am a tory rather than a tory voter (at present for the reasons i have given) . I have never bene a member of a political party and form my own opinions . Therefore I dont scheme to keep the tories in just vote for them when I think they are worthy of it
Just think after this committee the next thing Boris has to look forward to is the Railway Infrastructure "lipstick on a pig, sans lipstick, sans pig, sans glitter but with added shit" announcement tomorrow. One that will upset virtually every Red Wall seat outside of the the North East (it does upset Teesside but doesn't actually impact them that much).
He's in the merde this week. No doubt.
A litany of f*ckups and blustered promises now being busted.
Having been glued to the TV all afternoon, I'd like to offer a short, albeit crude, summary.
The current Tory government is just a fucking gravy train, isn't it? It won't end well.
"You don't see Members going off and doing a shift at Maccie D's" - says Karl Turner MP ... "These jobs are paying staggering amounts of money and they aren't the jobs that they (the public) recognize as second jobs for them" https://twitter.com/RachBradleyITV/status/1461009975631826955
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.
And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.
We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.
I disagree. The evidence is that the boosters will greatly increase immunity to symptomatic infection. As will increasing vaccinations among children. So you'd expect a decline in infections in response to greater immunity.
Cases down almost 1K from last week. Has the last week been the back-to-school surge? If it has only lasted a week then that is a very good sign.
I'd say almost certainly. One day and all that, but yes, doesn't look like taking off. But then it wouldn't as we have been at the current level more or less for months. R essentially 1. No restrictions (in England).
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.
And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.
We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.
I'm not very sure that a big fall isn't possible. The real question is that once the vaccination program gets down into the younger children, what effect does this have in the medium term.
It's definitely possible, we've had big falls before. Just not sure it's desirable anymore as anything other than a phasing difference.
Indeed so. Because people are obsessed – completely axiomatically infatuated – with rises in 'cases', regardless of the base that rise is from. So a big fall today means a big rise tomorrow, and the now standard panic, irrationality and hysteria from the usual suspects.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.
but you assume I am a tory rather than a tory voter (at present for the reasons i have given) . I have never bene a member of a political party and form my own opinions . Therefore I dont scheme to keep the tories in just vote for them when I think they are worthy of it
I made no such assumption - you are a Tory voter considering that "Starmer is wrong on covid". I don't agree but fine. So how do you keep Starmer and hiw wrong away from power - has to be by removing Johnson which means not voting Tory in the mid-term.
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.
This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.
I was deploying my usual subtle satire about "are we all immune". I am confused about your last point though. You and others have been cheering on the drop in numbers we saw a few weeks ago because the numbers have to drop and didn't we get the strategy right. Are you now saying that 30k average is going to sustain forever in which case why care whether numbers drop or not?
In the medium term this is where we're at, over the longer term we'll get better vaccines and ultimately there will be enough latent immunity that COVID is just not very dangerous to anyone but the very old and very sick (I mean we're almost already there). There exists no scenario where COVID is eliminated or eradicated.
Johnson now claiming the lack of mask in Hexham was a mistake that lasted six seconds.
So why then did the "I'm the" Deputy Prime Minister get sent out to do the media round insisting the PM had followed the rules.
He wouldn't have to sit there looking his usual gormless saying "he followed the rules" as they repeat the clip proving he didn't" had as he just claimed he had only taken it off for 5 seconds and had realised it was a mistake.
Another lie.
The lies are coming faster by the day. Eventually they will collide into one big enormous mess and he'll be done.
I doubt an incident over mask wearing will see Boris lose his premiership, but the idiotic way he dealt with the Paterson affair and his steps since including the change in standards may well
How about the idiotic way he and his ministers lied about it?
Wearing a mask in hospital is a given. Everyone has to, do not kiss your relatives edicts etc etc
Johnson told to wear one - repeatedly - by the staff. Backed up by the hospital rules. Mandated by the legal requirements on NHS Trusts set by his government.
Johnson doesn't wear one. Gets roundly castigated for doing so - front pages, commentators, the lot. Sends that gormless idiot "I'm the" Deputy Prime Minister onto GMTV. Repeats and repeats that the PM followed the rules as they repeatedly prove he didn't. Gormless doesn't get it even as the presenters explain it to him
Now he says "I did wear one, but took it off very briefly" (a lie) and then realised it was a mistake so put it back on (a lie). And then sent Raaaab out for more lies.
Yes its only a mask. But the lies are building. Proof that the PM has no interest in rules that are for you and me but not for him are building. The disconnect between him and everyone else are building.
“Wearing a mask in hospital is a given. Everyone has to, do not kiss your relatives edicts etc etc”
We didn’t have to wear one in the maternity ward, or the post birth room, last month when our son was born. I did wear one when I got lost walking around the endless, identical corridors though
I'm impressed they let you in at all - I know various people who ended up having to give birth alone with their other half banned. Congrats again on the birth!
Anyway, the guidelines at the time the PM went to Hexham are clear. Both from the DHSC and the Trust. He HAD to wear a mask. He didn't. And now he's saying sorry.
Are you suggesting that he was wrong to apologise for this error of judgement?
I’m just saying that I went to a hospital recently & they didn’t make us wear a mask at all times. I kissed two relatives as well!
I know that Prime Minister's Questions is supposed to be about the PM answering questions (but honestly most of the questions asked aren't looking for answers), but I think a lot of the public, if they notice, will think it's fair enough for Johnson to ask a question back about Starmer's double-jobbing, and they might feel there's a bit of an establishment cover up with the Speaker telling him he's not allowed to.
You can do it rhetorically once or twice. But as with most things you cannot take the piss and pretend it's a mutual q and a session.
The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.
If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?
I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.
Fair points. His one great call (whether accidental or otherwise) over covid restrictions will rapidly fade into the rearview mirror when other countries catch up. If people visit, say, France this coming summer sans restrictions they probably won't remember (or even know!) that France has more severe restrictions now.
Can you imagine if us and Germany were in a reverse situation at the moment?
Cases down almost 1K from last week. Has the last week been the back-to-school surge? If it has only lasted a week then that is a very good sign.
Just thinking about this some more. I think we will have a very good idea over the course of the next month whether the UK has reached herd immunity. If we have no restrictions, schools are back and cases are declining from the current high levels then I don't see what else it could be.
I think we can already say that we have. Cases have been at the current level more or less for months. Hopefully cases will start reducing too, especially if we keep boosting, as there is good evidence for significant reductions on infection with the booster.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Tobias Elwood pointing out that the Tories are gutting the armed forces. Johnson once again disagreeing and once again having the precise numbers from the budget quoted back at him. "Lets take the F35. You promised 138, we've got 48."
Johnson starts ridiculing Elwood - the days of tank battles are over. Its "now or never" for the armed forces, so lets invest. Elwood keeps batting away the rhetoric and quotes that we are CUTTING not investing.
Is there any subject where this clown knows the detail? He waffles on in flowerly language completely contradicting the reality.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.
Spot on. Like it or hate it (or him, if you like) Johnson delivered a brexit, and has muddled through a pandemic. He cannot do the day to day job of being PM. The conservatives have an 80 seat majority, with new boundaries coming that favour them even more. Time to get shot of the liability and get someone in who does details, understands a bit more how normal people live, and isn't Johnson.
Tobias Elwood pointing out that the Tories are gutting the armed forces. Johnson once again disagreeing and once again having the precise numbers from the budget quoted back at him. "Lets take the F35. You promised 138, we've got 48."
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
That is a lagging indicator though. If you look at the raw daily data (both reported and specimen dates) then you can tell which way it will be going.
And if we get a succession of low days then fine. Its still 38k.
We're now at the stage where a really big fall in cases from here would just guarantee a really big rise in a few months time - the goal here is stability because zero covid remains a fantasy.
I disagree. The evidence is that the boosters will greatly increase immunity to symptomatic infection. As will increasing vaccinations among children. So you'd expect a decline in infections in response to greater immunity.
Fair point, if boosters really do offer lasting protection against infection - clearly too early to say and there was a stage when 2 jabs was going to do the business.
Ultimately now it's just a question of the balance between new jabs/infections, and waning of protection from previous jabs and infections. If the 3rd jab genuinely does offer a waning free protection then great, but it's the same equalty to be solved for.
The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.
If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?
I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.
How could Boris do that - he's already done one reshuffle and tomorrow should be a day of straightforward confirmation of existing (heck within the 2019 manifesto) commitments and instead is going to be a grade A already leaked disaster zone...
The Monday -> Monday comparison looks like it will come in about evens, a few more days of reporting day drops and the specimen date drops will start to show in cases.
I'm now almost certain that we are either at or very close to herd immunity. If we weren't then there would be no chance of this case rise petering out and the R value dropping back to 1.
I hope that you and the other optimists are right. The rolling 7 day average is +35,798 today, vs +34,894 yesterday. We need to get back to day after day of significant and sustained drops before considering if we're all now immune.
You don't understand the dynamics of herd immunity at all, we're not all immune and that scenario is unlikely to ever exist. What's happening is that enough people are immune to enough of a degree that the virus is running into unviable and substandard hosts. Hence cases not taking off as they have across Europe where there are huge pools of naive hosts among unvaccinated people and older people with significantly waning immunity.
This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.
And also why we should stop routine testing and only test at hospitals etc when its needed.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.
but you assume I am a tory rather than a tory voter (at present for the reasons i have given) . I have never bene a member of a political party and form my own opinions . Therefore I dont scheme to keep the tories in just vote for them when I think they are worthy of it
I made no such assumption - you are a Tory voter considering that "Starmer is wrong on covid". I don't agree but fine. So how do you keep Starmer and hiw wrong away from power - has to be by removing Johnson which means not voting Tory in the mid-term.
I am afraid you have let this forum cloud your thinking as to how most normal people vote - they vote for a party because at the time of voting they think that party is best . Its only politicos and party hacks that scheme to the extent you mention which is fine but I am not such a breed.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.
but you assume I am a tory rather than a tory voter (at present for the reasons i have given) . I have never bene a member of a political party and form my own opinions . Therefore I dont scheme to keep the tories in just vote for them when I think they are worthy of it
I made no such assumption - you are a Tory voter considering that "Starmer is wrong on covid". I don't agree but fine. So how do you keep Starmer and hiw wrong away from power - has to be by removing Johnson which means not voting Tory in the mid-term.
I am afraid you have let this forum cloud your thinking as to how most normal people vote - they vote for a party because at the time of voting they think that party is best . Its only politicos and party hacks that scheme to the extent you mention which is fine but I am not such a breed.
Nope, most people vote whichever party they think is the least worst option out of the two parties likely to win that seat.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
I know that Prime Minister's Questions is supposed to be about the PM answering questions (but honestly most of the questions asked aren't looking for answers), but I think a lot of the public, if they notice, will think it's fair enough for Johnson to ask a question back about Starmer's double-jobbing, and they might feel there's a bit of an establishment cover up with the Speaker telling him he's not allowed to.
You can do it rhetorically once or twice. But as with most things you cannot take the piss and pretend it's a mutual q and a session.
Johnson wasn't fast enough on his feet and tried (it on) repeating the same question to Starmer three times - once was bad, two was naughty, three deserved a smack.
The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.
If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?
I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.
How could Boris do that - he's already done one reshuffle and tomorrow should be a day of straightforward confirmation of existing (heck within the 2019 manifesto) commitments and instead is going to be a grade A already leaked disaster zone...
What's the betting it won't be as leaked?
Highly unlikely the Government is going to commit to HS2 and HS3 and both are required for Boris as the schemes actually benefit different regions.
HS2 improves connectivity between anywhere between London and Sheffield (which can be served via Midland mainline), and anywhere between London and Doncaster / York (ECML). HS3 improves connectivity between everywhere between Liverpool and York.
Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!
Log chart, so cases in over 65s have now very nearly halved in the last 4 weeks whilst the headline number has bounced around due to irrelevant school kid cases.
In Rozzer's case, because he is a visible, relentless and effective campaigner in the LibDem Focus Team mould, and that works. As does his sthick; although it's not my cup of tea, it is sincere and effective.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
yes even to the extent when cases did rise and Labour and the media calling for facemasks again (despite no evidence they were working in Scotland or Wales) he resisted. Fair play a decision based on courage and conviction to his fundamental beliefs I think
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
Were I Rishi / Liz my plan would be to get Boris through to May / June next year and replace him after what is likely to be a disastrous set of local elections following April's long announced so mostly forgotten tax rises.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
Sorry but this argument is a little daft. If you want to keep Starmer out then you should be calling for Johnson's head. Remove Johnson, replace with someone like Sunak and you win the election. Don't and you may lose.
but you assume I am a tory rather than a tory voter (at present for the reasons i have given) . I have never bene a member of a political party and form my own opinions . Therefore I dont scheme to keep the tories in just vote for them when I think they are worthy of it
I made no such assumption - you are a Tory voter considering that "Starmer is wrong on covid". I don't agree but fine. So how do you keep Starmer and hiw wrong away from power - has to be by removing Johnson which means not voting Tory in the mid-term.
I am afraid you have let this forum cloud your thinking as to how most normal people vote - they vote for a party because at the time of voting they think that party is best . Its only politicos and party hacks that scheme to the extent you mention which is fine but I am not such a breed.
Nope, most people vote whichever party they think is the least worst option out of the two parties likely to win that seat.
Helpful update from @PA: "The Government sought to clarify that it has not lost the minutes of a meeting between Randox and a health minister, only that it cannot find them at the moment."
Does that mean some poor bugger is trying to make them up from scratch ?
See my post at 3pm.
I think they need to replay episodes of Yes Minister as part of basic political training, since even such a thing as promising minutes you haven't written yet was covered. Only you cannot hide that as easily now.
Fair points. His one great call (whether accidental or otherwise) over covid restrictions will rapidly fade into the rearview mirror when other countries catch up. If people visit, say, France this coming summer sans restrictions they probably won't remember (or even know!) that France has more severe restrictions now.
Indeed and remember not so long ago a lot of people were having a go at New Zealand and Jacinda Ardern.
Yes, she made mistakes and the policy of trying to eradicate the virus was wrong but they are now at 82% doubly vaccinated moving into summer and the winter/spring restrictions over there are being eased with Auckland set to re-open before Christmas.
Where the UK (and Israel and a few others) were right was getting the vaccination programmes moving quickly - the first UK vaccination was early December last year. Naturally, those who vaccinated first have seen the benefits first but the corollary of that is those who vaccinated earliest need to get the boosters moving first as the efficacy of the initial double vaccinations fades as well as getting the vaccinations down the age cohorts.
We are further down the road than many countries - that doesn't mean those countries can't and won't get their booster programmes in place just as they got their vaccination programmes in place.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
When Major took over he was able to drop the unpopular policy of the poll tax, and that made a big difference. Similarly when Johnson replaced May he was able to offer a way out of the Brexit morass that had trapped May.
Would a new leader be able to offer new solutions to the high cost of providing social care? What is the key weakness of the Johnson premiership that a new leader could fix?
If there is something a new leader can do differently and better then they should do so sooner rather than later. If all they offer is a different set of empty promises and lame excuses then the best they can hope for is to time a honeymoon to coincide with a GE.
Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!
Log chart, so cases in over 65s have now very nearly halved in the last 4 weeks whilst the headline number has bounced around due to irrelevant school kid cases.
The government is falling apart before our very eyes.
Pending our Mr Thompson advising it’s all part of some cunning plan, obvs.
The government needs a sense of renewal and the only way to do that is with a new leader.
He's going nowhere. He may yet still win the next GE. But it'll be close, unless he picks his game up.
Sitting PM's invariably have to be pushed out against their will. Doubt Boris will be different.
Only post-war exceptions were Wilson, Macmillan and Churchill due to health/age and even then I think the latter two were pretty reluctant and, in Macmillan's case, misled by the medics. Wilson had detected mental deterioration and had little choice. Blair, I s'pose could be added to the list, but really he was pushed out by the Broon.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
yes even to the extent when cases did rise and Labour and the media calling for facemasks again (despite no evidence they were working in Scotland or Wales) he resisted. Fair play a decision based on courage and conviction to his fundamental beliefs I think
Absolutely.
I think overall the UK has had one of the very best responses to the pandemic globally. Only Israel handled the vaccines better. It is incredible that we have had vaccines in place for nearly a year now, and yet the UK is still one of the only nations to have lifted all legal restrictions.
What is truly appalling is that in the next few weeks will mark the first anniversary of vaccine rollout beginning - and there's likely to be more European nations in lockdown than without legal restrictions at that point. This winter going back into lockdown seems more likely than lifting restrictions for quite a few countries.
Any country that is in lockdown over a year after vaccines became available has catastrophically failed.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
I'm no fan of this government - and I'll happily criticise some of the pandemic response - but this is one call that I think they got right and it took some balls. Not cost free, obviously, and against polling at the time - the easy thing to do would have been to keep restrictions a little longer. We haven't yet seen exactly how it is all going to play out, but signs are (from my pov) that it was a good call.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
yes even to the extent when cases did rise and Labour and the media calling for facemasks again (despite no evidence they were working in Scotland or Wales) he resisted. Fair play a decision based on courage and conviction to his fundamental beliefs I think
Absolutely.
I think overall the UK has had one of the very best responses to the pandemic globally. Only Israel handled the vaccines better. It is incredible that we have had vaccines in place for nearly a year now, and yet the UK is still one of the only nations to have lifted all legal restrictions.
What is truly appalling is that in the next few weeks will mark the first anniversary of vaccine rollout beginning - and there's likely to be more European nations in lockdown than without legal restrictions at that point. This winter going back into lockdown seems more likely than lifting restrictions for quite a few countries.
Any country that is in lockdown over a year after vaccines became available has catastrophically failed.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
When Major took over he was able to drop the unpopular policy of the poll tax, and that made a big difference. Similarly when Johnson replaced May he was able to offer a way out of the Brexit morass that had trapped May.
Would a new leader be able to offer new solutions to the high cost of providing social care? What is the key weakness of the Johnson premiership that a new leader could fix?
If there is something a new leader can do differently and better then they should do so sooner rather than later. If all they offer is a different set of empty promises and lame excuses then the best they can hope for is to time a honeymoon to coincide with a GE.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
Were I Rishi / Liz my plan would be to get Boris through to May / June next year and replace him after what is likely to be a disastrous set of local elections following April's long announced so mostly forgotten tax rises.
This is the thing that infuriates me most about the Tories. They're so good at timing their leadership changes. It doesn't matter how disastrous the previous leader was, they go through such a Dr Who style transformation every time that the electorate seem immediately to treat them as a new party. Same will happen for Rishi.
I agree that turning out Boris now would be a bit early. Too long for things to go wrong before the next election.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
When Major took over he was able to drop the unpopular policy of the poll tax, and that made a big difference. Similarly when Johnson replaced May he was able to offer a way out of the Brexit morass that had trapped May.
Would a new leader be able to offer new solutions to the high cost of providing social care? What is the key weakness of the Johnson premiership that a new leader could fix?
If there is something a new leader can do differently and better then they should do so sooner rather than later. If all they offer is a different set of empty promises and lame excuses then the best they can hope for is to time a honeymoon to coincide with a GE.
Reinstate hs3
HS3 and Eastern leg HS2, binning it really doesn't save that much.
Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!
Log chart, so cases in over 65s have now very nearly halved in the last 4 weeks whilst the headline number has bounced around due to irrelevant school kid cases.
England only data, for over 65s.....
Comparing the two would suggest your chart is about to see 3 days of very steep falls unless Alex Selby's forward-cast calculations don't work out in this case.
An exhausting day for Boris: PMQs and all the prep beforehand, then the Liaison Committee where he is still being grilled by the chairs of Commons’ Committees, then he due to face Conservative MPs at 5pm for the “1922”.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
Were I Rishi / Liz my plan would be to get Boris through to May / June next year and replace him after what is likely to be a disastrous set of local elections following April's long announced so mostly forgotten tax rises.
This is the thing that infuriates me most about the Tories. They're so good at timing their leadership changes. It doesn't matter how disastrous the previous leader was, they go through such a Dr Who style transformation every time that the electorate seem immediately to treat them as a new party. Same will happen for Rishi.
I agree that turning out Boris now would be a bit early. Too long for things to go wrong before the next election.
Ideally it would be May 2023, then a 6 month honeymoon to a November 2023 (new boundary) election. But I don't think the party will be able to wait that long.
Pretty sure after that exchange between Johnson and Jeremy Hunt about the NHS workforce that the Prime Minister doesn't have a clue what the health select committee chair is asking him for and how it would work. https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1461016233290129412
Pretty sure that the Prime Minister doesn't have a clue what anybody is asking him for and how it would work.
An exhausting day for Boris: PMQs and all the prep beforehand, then the Liaison Committee where he is still being grilled by the chairs of Commons’ Committees, then he due to face Conservative MPs at 5pm for the “1922”.
Helpful update from @PA: "The Government sought to clarify that it has not lost the minutes of a meeting between Randox and a health minister, only that it cannot find them at the moment."
Does that mean some poor bugger is trying to make them up from scratch ?
See my post at 3pm.
I once won a case because I idly looked at the metadata of a disclosed Word copy of meeting minutes allegedly created 8 months previously. They had been typed up by my oppo that morning. A demand for the notes they had been created from prompted a rapid settlement offer.
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
I'm no fan of this government - and I'll happily criticise some of the pandemic response - but this is one call that I think they got right and it took some balls. Not cost free, obviously, and against polling at the time - the easy thing to do would have been to keep restrictions a little longer. We haven't yet seen exactly how it is all going to play out, but signs are (from my pov) that it was a good call.
Indeed and the reality is as many of us said in the Spring when calling for this call to be made "if not now, then when?"
If you don't lift restrictions in the start of summer are you really going to in autumn? Then when it comes to winter forget about it, more chance of finding the restrictions aren't enough (as antivaxxers didn't catch it enough in the summer) so you need more restrictions for winter - as other nations are finding out to their peril now.
The 'easy' non-decision would have been to keep dragging out restrictions and then that would need to be done at least until Spring 2022 if not later.
Helpful update from @PA: "The Government sought to clarify that it has not lost the minutes of a meeting between Randox and a health minister, only that it cannot find them at the moment."
Does that mean some poor bugger is trying to make them up from scratch ?
See my post at 3pm.
I once won a case because I idly looked at the metadata of a disclosed Word copy of meeting minutes allegedly created 8 months previously. They had been typed up by my oppo that morning. A demand for the notes they had been created from prompted a rapid settlement offer.
Don’t send documents as Word copies kids.
Yep I forgot to add that bit How to fake a document
1) Disconnect from internet 2) Change your system clock 3) ensure the font you are using existed at the time the document was "created" 4) use print to PDF to get an untraceable document.
Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!
Log chart, so cases in over 65s have now very nearly halved in the last 4 weeks whilst the headline number has bounced around due to irrelevant school kid cases.
England only data, for over 65s.....
Comparing the two would suggest your chart is about to see 3 days of very steep falls unless Alex Selby's forward-cast calculations don't work out in this case.
That would be nice.
One thing that this epidemic has taught me is that a case model plus £2.50 will buy you... a coffee at Starbucks...
Tobias Elwood pointing out that the Tories are gutting the armed forces. Johnson once again disagreeing and once again having the precise numbers from the budget quoted back at him. "Lets take the F35. You promised 138, we've got 48."
Johnson starts ridiculing Elwood - the days of tank battles are over. Its "now or never" for the armed forces, so lets invest. Elwood keeps batting away the rhetoric and quotes that we are CUTTING not investing.
Is there any subject where this clown knows the detail? He waffles on in flowerly language completely contradicting the reality.
If you check the news today, we are down to 47 F35s.
Helpful update from @PA: "The Government sought to clarify that it has not lost the minutes of a meeting between Randox and a health minister, only that it cannot find them at the moment."
Does that mean some poor bugger is trying to make them up from scratch ?
See my post at 3pm.
I once won a case because I idly looked at the metadata of a disclosed Word copy of meeting minutes allegedly created 8 months previously. They had been typed up by my oppo that morning. A demand for the notes they had been created from prompted a rapid settlement offer.
Don’t send documents as Word copies kids.
To be fair it takes 8 months sometimes in organisations to get around to writing minutes because (as someone who does it occasionally) they are fkin boring to do
The only reason I am voting Tory at the moment is the great job they (Boris) is doing over covid . Most of Europe in the grip still of facemasks (useless ), curfews and rising cases in winter when Boris had the right idea to relax in summer and Autumn and gain herd immunity.Starmer is wrong on covid and has been for a while
What evidence do you have that any decision was actually made by Boris "wait until there is only 1 option left on the table" Johnson?
Heck you only have to look back to last December to see how desperate Boris was to avoid making a decision.
Because he actually did make the decision to open up the country in July. Unlike every other country in Europe.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Not quite - the decision wasn't so much to open up it was more the natural conclusion of that wave.
Not at all, that's garbage. The decision was made in this country to lift all legal restrictions, even face masks etc, which wasn't made in any other nation in the whole of Europe as far as I know. That is making a positive decision.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
yes even to the extent when cases did rise and Labour and the media calling for facemasks again (despite no evidence they were working in Scotland or Wales) he resisted. Fair play a decision based on courage and conviction to his fundamental beliefs I think
Absolutely.
I think overall the UK has had one of the very best responses to the pandemic globally. Only Israel handled the vaccines better. It is incredible that we have had vaccines in place for nearly a year now, and yet the UK is still one of the only nations to have lifted all legal restrictions.
What is truly appalling is that in the next few weeks will mark the first anniversary of vaccine rollout beginning - and there's likely to be more European nations in lockdown than without legal restrictions at that point. This winter going back into lockdown seems more likely than lifting restrictions for quite a few countries.
Any country that is in lockdown over a year after vaccines became available has catastrophically failed.
I am currently in Europe after a stay with friends- not in lockdown but with continued masks, working track and trace, properly enforced mass quarantine (IE the entire local Council office in the town I was staying in was put into quarantine). Queues around the block for testing. Keeping my fingers crossed that I will make it out of here ok without being told to quarantine or worse getting covid and going in to isolation - that scenario would not be covered by my insurance and would be financially very bad news, looking at a £2-£3k hit if it happens.
I think Boris did have absolutely the right instincts when we 'opened up' in July. We have a lot more freedom in consequence; we are like Sweden at the start of the pandemic.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
Were I Rishi / Liz my plan would be to get Boris through to May / June next year and replace him after what is likely to be a disastrous set of local elections following April's long announced so mostly forgotten tax rises.
This is the thing that infuriates me most about the Tories. They're so good at timing their leadership changes. It doesn't matter how disastrous the previous leader was, they go through such a Dr Who style transformation every time that the electorate seem immediately to treat them as a new party. Same will happen for Rishi.
I agree that turning out Boris now would be a bit early. Too long for things to go wrong before the next election.
While Labour still gets blamed for the Winter of Discontent.
Comments
Herd immunity doesn't look like a lasting fall in cases, it looks like a rippling steady state where cases are broadly flat over time with any small dip leading to an immunity deficit which drives a small rise.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1461005055235133442?s=20
This is the end state, cases in England will hover around 25k-35k per day, sometimes it will go below and sometimes it will go above that. This is what an COVID becoming endemic in a country looks like.
Yes, you might have made a good shout the other day when you boldly declared VC Day. I thought it was a very brave call from someone who is usually fairly conservative on covid, but you might turn out to have been right.
If cases start falling with schools unmasked and in full leaf, chilly weather, zero restrictions and almost no behaviour mitigation in England's major cities, Ozcam's razor suggests the fabled herd immunity might be with us.
As I posted a few weeks ago, my goto question about the rights of trans wrt prison and other spaces is simple:
"What is to stop Wayne Couzens (convicted sex murderer) from claiming to self-identify as a woman and asking to be moved to a women's prison?"
The problem as we move into the post-pandemic era is we're back to the normal world of politics and the limitations of the current administration are becoming evident having been obscured by the virus which dominated all life for 18 months.
If the only reason to support Boris Johnson is what he has done, perhaps there's a limited expectation as to what he can and will do?
I suspect we will see a "relaunch" of the Government in the new year.
The current Tory government is just a fucking gravy train, isn't it? It won't end well.
https://twitter.com/RachBradleyITV/status/1461009975631826955
A litany of f*ckups and blustered promises now being busted.
Tory MP Nigel Mills says he will vote for the Labour motion tonight.
Sounds like he feels he can’t justify to his locals that he voted against “because Labour forced the timetable”
The power of the Tory whip much diminished after the past fortnight’s battering
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1461010651917213713
Andrew Rosindell, on banning MPs from 2nd jobs: “We have to realise we have human beings who have families & responsibilities”
https://twitter.com/Zero_4/status/1460747205405556741
Roll on Christmas.
Johnson unbelievably embarrassing.
Too damned right the PM should be desperate to avoid putting the country into lockdown! How the heck are you using that as a weakness and not a strength.
Johnson starts ridiculing Elwood - the days of tank battles are over. Its "now or never" for the armed forces, so lets invest. Elwood keeps batting away the rhetoric and quotes that we are CUTTING not investing.
Is there any subject where this clown knows the detail? He waffles on in flowerly language completely contradicting the reality.
Ultimately now it's just a question of the balance between new jabs/infections, and waning of protection from previous jabs and infections. If the 3rd jab genuinely does offer a waning free protection then great, but it's the same equalty to be solved for.
One well informed source told the BBC, ‘This is a significant change and greatly reduces the generosity of the scheme to less well off pensioners who need care for a long time.’ The announcement is here https://t.co/k9YnjyeMTf - white paper due before Christmas
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1461008989999841281?t=58_m1-Eh0kw6NVeUnwMtkw&s=19
What's the best Conservative strategy here?
Leave Boris to take the pelting with dung that's about to happen? Even with a fresh PM, the next year or two will be tough.
Or remove him before he makes things even worse?
A high-level resignation could bring him down. Rishi? Liz? Over to you.
Its very easy to be a dreadful authoritarian like Jacinda and slamming your country into lockdown the second cases emerge, or to dither and delay dragging on restrictions like Merkel through the summer and the autumn. Actually taking the decision that restrictions will be lifted even if that means cases rise in the short-term, because its the right thing to do . . . thank goodness we had a PM "courageous" enough to make that decision.
Only need to look around the continent to see nations struggling as they head into winter to see what the alternative is. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet.
HS2 improves connectivity between anywhere between London and Sheffield (which can be served via Midland mainline), and anywhere between London and Doncaster / York (ECML). HS3 improves connectivity between everywhere between Liverpool and York.
http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png
Line for Pensioners now in total freefall - hurrah!
Yes, she made mistakes and the policy of trying to eradicate the virus was wrong but they are now at 82% doubly vaccinated moving into summer and the winter/spring restrictions over there are being eased with Auckland set to re-open before Christmas.
Where the UK (and Israel and a few others) were right was getting the vaccination programmes moving quickly - the first UK vaccination was early December last year. Naturally, those who vaccinated first have seen the benefits first but the corollary of that is those who vaccinated earliest need to get the boosters moving first as the efficacy of the initial double vaccinations fades as well as getting the vaccinations down the age cohorts.
We are further down the road than many countries - that doesn't mean those countries can't and won't get their booster programmes in place just as they got their vaccination programmes in place.
Would a new leader be able to offer new solutions to the high cost of providing social care? What is the key weakness of the Johnson premiership that a new leader could fix?
If there is something a new leader can do differently and better then they should do so sooner rather than later. If all they offer is a different set of empty promises and lame excuses then the best they can hope for is to time a honeymoon to coincide with a GE.
Only post-war exceptions were Wilson, Macmillan and Churchill due to health/age and even then I think the latter two were pretty reluctant and, in Macmillan's case, misled by the medics. Wilson had detected mental deterioration and had little choice. Blair, I s'pose could be added to the list, but really he was pushed out by the Broon.
I think overall the UK has had one of the very best responses to the pandemic globally. Only Israel handled the vaccines better. It is incredible that we have had vaccines in place for nearly a year now, and yet the UK is still one of the only nations to have lifted all legal restrictions.
What is truly appalling is that in the next few weeks will mark the first anniversary of vaccine rollout beginning - and there's likely to be more European nations in lockdown than without legal restrictions at that point. This winter going back into lockdown seems more likely than lifting restrictions for quite a few countries.
Any country that is in lockdown over a year after vaccines became available has catastrophically failed.
I agree that turning out Boris now would be a bit early. Too long for things to go wrong before the next election.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1461011443264983043?s=20
"all the prep beforehand"? Shome mishtake shurely?
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1461016233290129412
Pretty sure that the Prime Minister doesn't have a clue what anybody is asking him for and how it would work.
Don’t send documents as Word copies kids.
If you don't lift restrictions in the start of summer are you really going to in autumn? Then when it comes to winter forget about it, more chance of finding the restrictions aren't enough (as antivaxxers didn't catch it enough in the summer) so you need more restrictions for winter - as other nations are finding out to their peril now.
The 'easy' non-decision would have been to keep dragging out restrictions and then that would need to be done at least until Spring 2022 if not later.
How to fake a document
1) Disconnect from internet
2) Change your system clock
3) ensure the font you are using existed at the time the document was "created"
4) use print to PDF to get an untraceable document.
One thing that this epidemic has taught me is that a case model plus £2.50 will buy you... a coffee at Starbucks...
I think Boris did have absolutely the right instincts when we 'opened up' in July. We have a lot more freedom in consequence; we are like Sweden at the start of the pandemic.