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Number 10 must be hoping that this is an outlier – politicalbetting.com

The Savanta ComRes poll was carried out on Thursday and Friday and other polls are in the pipeline.
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The strength of SF polling south of the border is also noteworthy, considering they are treated by as being outside the mainstream.
Of course, at any other time this sort of poll would be normal for mid-term, but the last few years have destroyed a lot of long-standing precedent.
What it does show, is that the government need to get back on top of the narrative, as the pandemic ends and we get back to ‘politics as usual’. It’s clear that the media are now going for MP conduct in a big way, and they have a lot of stories stored up and ready to print.
I still think that it’s not helpful for everyone to go for Geoffrey Cox, who’s done nothing wrong except to have a great job that pays him a fortune on an hourly basis. The focus on Cox is distracting from other, potentially more serious offences that involve a genuine conflict of interest.
I hope, but do not expect, they throw the fool out.
F1: sprint races remain bloody stupid. I'll put up a pre-sprint bullshit ramble later today, probably.
Apparently an MP called Douglas Ross was secretly also a member of the Scottish Parliament. As if that wasn't bad enough, he was secretly funding a number of charities with his salary. Some people have no shame.
https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1459334796509945864
And Hamilton's rear wing is also being scrutinised:
https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1459318489647304706
You've got this utter monstrosity of a human being sat on his massive fucking arse in the Caribbean making piles of cash advising arseholes about wank while he's supposed to be an MP. No nuance required.
From his post earlier today, it seems Dura Ace has been fraternising with Malc! Mr A is often abusive but his 6.42 post does seem a bit rich, even for him.
Is use of that sort of language why some posters have recently reduced their activity?
3 days for an event to be picked up by polling, 10 days for it to roll off if it is not a long term permanent opinion shifter.
We are still in the window.
Although someone seems to be trying to distract everyone with Royal 'news'.
Talking of QCs, the lawyers for Mrs. Sussex are certainly earning their money this week. At what point do they have to advise their client to settle, rather than face cross-examination?
He seems a bit worried, anyway. The gates at the top of his drive down here are closed which I haven't seen before
Since the Owen Paterson lobbying scandal there has been criticism of MPs holding second jobs, particularly those involving consultancy or lobbying.
An analysis of the register of MPs’ interests reveals that at least 138 have had second jobs in the past year, and 12 earn at least an extra £100,000 a year from outside interests.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nearly-140-mps-have-other-jobs-amid-fears-of-part-time-parliament-xpl9h99jm
The guy spends his Saturdays refereeing, so what? He gives his MSP salary to charity, good on him. Where is the actual scandal?
Meanwhile, IDS and others who have serious questions to answer, are being ignored.
Would love to know how many letters they have requesting Boris go!
Thanks in advance.
Nice piece on Cox's villa on Tortola which also has some good colour on the weird fucked up colonial hangover which is the BVI.
The 'Tory sleaze' horse has now well and truly bolted and will continue to run. The current flurry of stories will have to slow down at some point, but the idea has been planted and so every subsequent story (outcome of independent enquiry, anything that requires a little more investigative journalism) will be linked back to the established theme.
I also wonder if part of the reason it was so successful was because the accusation has been levied at the Tories as a whole, not Boris who has been bulletproof on these sorts of things
Plenty can happen in the 18-30 months before the next election for the Tories to recover, but this has made that job a lot harder for them.
“It can't be right that Matt Hancock gets to put his spin on events for a bumper pay cheque before families can find out the truth of what happened at a public inquiry”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10196309/Matt-Hancock-book-deal-tell-heroic-role-pandemic.html
We have seen the loss of several posters recently and it may be to do with the unrelenting anti HMG threads, but to be honest Boris and others have opened the door wide with his and their idiotic actions
As far as @Dura_Ace comments are concerned they do not contribute to the discussions but like @malcolmg are designed to be provocative and are best ignored
The ‘22 Chairman keeps the number of letters currently in his possession, very close to his chest.
Heck it probably took Tony Blair questioned by the rozzers for sleaze to be more associated with Labour.
I think that happened when May's letter threshold was reached, but realistically once you've reached the point of the threshold being met then withdrawn letters aren't going to make much difference.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/13/charity-that-employs-carrie-johnson-faces-further-questions-over-finances
I tend to post for two reasons - one for betting stuff so this is very much around major elections and the other when I really think there is a concensus building which i fundamentally disagree with like covid restrictions ,facemasks, testing etc . I can never summon up much energy for Westminster stuff like Mp second jobs (seems to come round every so often like a comet) or even climate change - the name COP26 means there will be a COP27 somewhere etc
Graduates must start paying back student loans sooner
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/12/graduates-must-start-paying-back-student-loans-sooner/
That is confirmed by the fact the Unionist parties of DUP, UUP and TUV are on 43% combined ie comfortably more than the Nationalist parties of SF and SDLP on only 36% combined
https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/boris-johnson-has-blown-the-conservative https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1459438429742247940/photo/1
The Brexiteer Party now look in complete disarray. We just need SKS to show us what he's made of and the future could be bright.
Only a no confidence ballot can be held if sufficient MPs submit letters, as with IDS and if the leader gets more than 50% support they survive, if less they don't.
However that actually benefits the leader a bit more, even Thatcher would have survived in 1990 as she got 54% of Tory MPs backing her over Heseltine on the first ballot. IDS was toppled in 2003 but even he got 45% still in that no confidence vote and Boris would surely do better than that given Redwall MPs owed him their seats in 2019.
My guess is unless Labour are 10%+ ahead consistently in polls over the next 6 months, Boris will survive. If Labour do get that big a lead though Boris will go and Sunak would replace him being the only Conservative alternative who might claw back some votes lost to Labour
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1520605/brexit-news-poll-uk-rejoin-eu-referendum-remainers-vote-leave-boris-johnson-update
That actually suggests that a number of Leavers have switched to Labour given the Tories + RefUK combined are under 40% with Comres
And yet, it's an extraordinarily interesting time in British politics. There's the pandemic, with all its unpredictability. There's the Tories, experimenting with a kind of populism that hasn't been seen in a mainstream party in living memory. There are all the new laws needed post-Brexit, and the exact shape of British foreign policy still oddly unclear. There's the possible Green breakthrough, if you believe YouGov. There's RefUK, moving up to the non-trivial level in the polls. I've always felt I'd like to live forever, just to see how it all works out, but just living right now is good fun too if you like political strangeness.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/13/chris-bryant-ill-report-the-next-mp-who-tries-to-lobby-me
There is even a plurality for a Rejoin referendum within the next 5 years. 40% for and 34% against.
Again, are the media going to spend more time on actual scandals, or are they just throwing enough mud and hoping some of it sticks?
Who has been driven away? It is not always easy to spot someone who isn't posting so that is a genuine question.
I note that @Casino_Royale hasn't been around and is missed. Any know if he is ok?
SquareRoot was driven off and I played my part in that, but he deserved the responses he got here because his posts were so unpleasant, content free and with no humour to compensate.
Johnson has used his power as PM to turn a blind eye to his Ministers' breaches of the Ministerial Code, to overrule his Ethics Adviser, to refuse the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. And in his latest exercise of power he has (via his Party’s whips) attempted (a) to overrule the advice of Parliaments’ Committee on Standards, and (b) to set up a Conservative-chaired Committee to do the work of that Committee.
Sure Paterson’s a bad ’un. Sure all those MPs who could see no wrong in Paterson’s corrupt activities have no place in the governing Party of a democratic nation. But let it be clear that when Johnson said that the UK is not a remotely corrupt country, he spoke falsely. What now enables corrupt practices in UK public life is the leader of the UK government.
However, it's not really about people being persuaded. Some of the swing is non voters expressing an opinion, and I wouldn't want to rely on them. The rest is age profiles. It's not nice to talk about, but Leave voters are going to that place where referendums cease and being replaced by younger people who suckled at the evil teat of EU propoganda.
Tip to those who see Brexit as their entry in the history books. If you try to make Brejoin difficult, it probably won't work and will really hack off future generations.
https://comresglobal.com/polls/eu-referendum-polling-12th-november-2021/
This weekend's Saturday view by @Alain_Tolhurst:
🧵 1/
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/tories-warn-boris-johnson-could-be-gone-by-summer-if-sleaze-mess-isnt-cleared-up-soon
https://twitter.com/ga11acher/status/1459287825128505351?s=20
I wouldn’t personally join any pile on to drive anyone off. That’s cheap.
Francis urquhart hasn’t been here for a while.
Thanks for the confirmation
For all its faults, I do like twitter as it keeps comments concise. Sometimes the effort needed to continue an intelligent and civil argument on PB gets a bit wearing.
This would then remove it as an issue as the UK govt can say “see, we want to pay it but technically cannot give it to you but when you sort out your issues you get it” and so it takes away a stick for Iran to beat the UK with in the eyes of the world….
Or alternatively the UK could buy Iran 400m of vaccines and have them delivered as surely the Iranian govt would love to use the money to help their people and not use it for nefarious means….!!
Here's a wild idea: get rid of the incompetent fool.
The damage is done, and it is irreparable. (Of course this is not to say that future policy should be such as Brextremists advocate.)
Now Boris pays the price at the polls: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10196665/Now-Boris-Johnson-pays-price-polls-Labour-race-ahead-Tories-SIX-points.html
This isn't just a slap on the wrist for Boris, its a punch in the kidneys: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10196567/JOHN-HUMPHRYS-isnt-just-slap-wrist-Boris-punch-kidneys.html
£3m for a gong? Now we must scrap the House of Lords: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10196785/ANDREW-NEIL-3million-gong-scrap-useless-dangerous-House-Lords.html
It'll all blow over, won't it? Meanwhile, the Northern Echo on its front page goes after its region's MPs. https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19714549.mps-north-east-north-yorkshire-get-money/ Not good news for Red Wall Tories. Interesting that the same company - IX Wireless - pops up with lots of donations to various NE Tory MPs. IX is "rolling out high-speed internet across the North"...
Just in case you think all that will blow over, the last line of their main article is "The Northern Echo will be publishing further details in the coming days. ". I'm not sure they have been entertained by the self-evident hypocricy of Tory MPs who fed their hacks endless stories complaining about Labour's Cleveland PCC for crimes like using WhatsApp to communicate with the Chief Constable, yet when their own is under investigation for an actual serious crime they absolutely clam up. As you sow etc...
The 'Rejoin' movement, which in a sense began the day after the referendum result has years to work in, and through EFTA has a less toxic route. The different policy packages that are feasible for a post Brexit world have hardly begun to be discussed. Until the island of Ireland matter is stable we are not at the end of Stage 1 Brexit. And the Referendum is already 5 and half years ago.
Watching the centre left will remain interesting. They have an almost permanent majority of votes even when the Tories are doing well, now that the LDs are clearly in that camp, and the Greens and SNP are a permanent thing. If they got their act together over Europe things could change.
Currently the stasis is because it is, like any real politics, a risk. SKS is fantastically risk averse.
I think the govt need to be concerned about the fox killing lawyer and any potential dodgy dealings in Covid contracts.
The truth is that this site is unique and remarkable for the generally high standard of contribution from across the political spectrum. There is more wit and insight on one PB thread than there has ever been in the entire history of most 'have your say' sections found on other outlets.
If anything I think this might make triggering be postponed a bit, as I doubt they'll want A16 to be lumped in with the sleaze discussion even if there's nothing sleazy about it.
And of course Rejoin is not Labour Party policy. Even the LDs see it more as a long term objective.
That said people predicting the political demise of Boris De Pfeffel are jumping the gun methinks...
I absolutely agree with your last sentence. They hypocrisy is self evident and the Tories deserve their come uppance. Both parties are just as bad on this When in office but the Tories are in power. This will peter out but the damage may be irreversible.