Interesting that even the Express is beginning to get it. The Tory party plan of firing up the Brexitism may not be a good one. People want a further referendum and want to Rejoin. Starmer is at risk of missing the boat on this too with "make Brexit work".
47% wanting still to have left the EU is 13% more than the Tories 34% rating with Comres last night.
That actually suggests that a number of Leavers have switched to Labour given the Tories + RefUK combined are under 40% with Comres
No only 20% of Lab supporters would vote to stay out. 10% of Leavers would now vote Rejoin, and 80% that didn't vote in the referendum.
There is even a plurality for a Rejoin referendum within the next 5 years. 40% for and 34% against.
So without those 20% of Labour voters who still back Leave, Labour would only be on 32% and the Tories would still be ahead even with Comres.
Thanks for the confirmation
I now think we will see a lot of Red wall 2019 tory voters sitting on their hands (similar to how a lot of 2017 labour red wall voters abstained in 2019) in 2023/24 even though I expect the Tories to recover to about 40% (regardless of whether Johnson is replaced or not).
I have been surprised at the volatility of the polls this year though although most of it seems to have been caused by changes in propensity to vote among con/Lab voters rather than red wall voters directly switching to Starmer's Lab.
Interesting that even the Express is beginning to get it. The Tory party plan of firing up the Brexitism may not be a good one. People want a further referendum and want to Rejoin. Starmer is at risk of missing the boat on this too with "make Brexit work".
So when are the Lib Dems to come out and support rejoining rather than obfuscation
Rejoining will only work if and when the country as a whole want it to work. One of the reasons this has continued to be such a mess is the fissure running down the country. In addition, if we were to half-heartedly rejoin, what are the odds that we’d flip around yet again and demand another exit?
A revolving door membership suits no-one.
To get people to want to rejoin and to have that widely spread and settled would require showing that closer alignment (Single Market first, and then actively wanting to be part of more and more programmes) would work and be beneficial and wanted.
So - working for closer alignment and getting to demonstrate that it is desirable for all (or, conversely, prove that it isn’t) is the best way to have a genuine and lasting Rejoin - without sowing the seeds for yet another Brexit. Learning the lessons from the past few years where both sides poisoned the discourse with their own haste, intolerance, and failure to consider the crucial question of: “then what?”
Spot on. Rejoining in the short term is almost as silly as an idea as a no deal Brexit was. Perhaps in 15-20 years, if a consistent clear majority are in favour and the EU structures are working well, but in the short term anyone who wants a closer relationship with the EU should be focused on alignment and being good neighbours who can work constructively together, not rejoin.
Yes, and that is broadly the LD policy, with Labour coming out in even more dilute form.
Politics is what it is, and elections are too. The issue the LDs will have to be clear about in their policy is: What is the timetable for a return to freedom of movement.
If you could be in the SM without FoM we wouldn't be where we are.
LD are keen on FoM, but obviously our ability to bring it back would be dependent on the post election position.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
Suspect they plan or indeed already have a serialisation deal with a major newspaper to cover the costs.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
Suspect they plan or indeed already have a serialisation deal with a major newspaper to cover the costs.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
It's a bit like Neville [edit!] Chamberlain publishing "How I defeated Herr Hitler" in 1940.
Right, before people pile on, can I make it clear that Dom Cummings is a) a mendacious idiot, not to be believed, and b) out for revenge. But nevertheless, I found this interesting:
It sounds vaguely believable, doesn't it? The 'trolley' got bored quickly once Brexit was done, needed more money, and wanted to write about Shakespeare - i.e. earn more money. If, and it's a big if, anybody more trustworthy than Dom could corroborate that Boris missed early Covid Cobra meetings in Feb 2020 because he was writing at Chevening, that may be rather damaging.
Priced in, surely? Everyone already knows Boris is lazy with no grasp of detail. And unless everyone in Number 10 is very stupid, the Shakespeare book will not see the light of day until Boris leaves.
Has Johnson any knowledge of Shakespeare beyond GCE? It will either be trite, or ghostwritten or both.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
Suspect they plan or indeed already have a serialisation deal with a major newspaper to cover the costs.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
It's a bit like Neville [edit!] Chamberlain publishing "How I defeated Herr Hitler" in 1942.
Really? Has Hancock been dead for two years?
I didn't notice, which is a shame. I'm sure I would have enjoyed the party.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
Suspect they plan or indeed already have a serialisation deal with a major newspaper to cover the costs.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
It's a bit like Neville [edit!] Chamberlain publishing "How I defeated Herr Hitler" in 1942.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I'm waiting for the sequel. 'How Gina Coladangelo blew it"
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
Suspect they plan or indeed already have a serialisation deal with a major newspaper to cover the costs.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
It's a bit like Neville [edit!] Chamberlain publishing "How I defeated Herr Hitler" in 1942.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I'm waiting for the sequel. 'How Gina Coladangelo blew it"
I am sure that Hancocks will be a hands on account.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
Suspect they plan or indeed already have a serialisation deal with a major newspaper to cover the costs.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
It's a bit like Neville [edit!] Chamberlain publishing "How I defeated Herr Hitler" in 1942.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I reckon my father and some of his ex colleagues would buy a copy on day one.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
Suspect they plan or indeed already have a serialisation deal with a major newspaper to cover the costs.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
It's a bit like Neville [edit!] Chamberlain publishing "How I defeated Herr Hitler" in 1942.
Mr. Doethur, fret not. The embrace of the cold vacuum of space will be a brief one before the ammunition is welcomed into the all-consuming fires of the sun.
Fascinating story in The Times, really split emerging between the old guard and the 2019. Boris Johnson thinks the sleaze stuff will blow over and isn't in much contact with the 2019ers.
....Many of the 2019 intake turned on Johnson privately over the past week. “The party needs leadership and he’s nowhere to be seen on this issue,” one said. “Boris has done a disappearing act and this is all starting to take hold.”
Another called on Johnson to make himself the voice of public anger over second jobs. “He shouldn’t try to ride this out. He needs to show the public he’s furious, like Cameron did during expenses,” they said. “But I appreciate that’s difficult for him,” they added, in reference to his outside earnings when he was on the back benches.
Another member of the 2019 intake said they felt as if Downing Street had used them as “cannon fodder”. They said: “The PM has not really engaged with us in the aftermath. We’ve had far more from the chancellor in terms of an apology and showing a bit of humility about it. It’s all so tone-deaf.”....
...A senior MP warned Johnson against a kneejerk reaction to the anger of his newest MPs. “Boris shouldn’t just shift to listening only to the 2019ers,” they said. “Yes they’re more numerous, but the Spartans [the supporters of a hard Brexit] are more dangerous. Ask Theresa May. They literally brought down a prime minister only two years ago.”
Fascinating story in The Times, really split emerging between the old guard and the 2019. Boris Johnson thinks the sleaze stuff will blow over and isn't in much contact with the 2019ers.
....Many of the 2019 intake turned on Johnson privately over the past week. “The party needs leadership and he’s nowhere to be seen on this issue,” one said. “Boris has done a disappearing act and this is all starting to take hold.”
Another called on Johnson to make himself the voice of public anger over second jobs. “He shouldn’t try to ride this out. He needs to show the public he’s furious, like Cameron did during expenses,” they said. “But I appreciate that’s difficult for him,” they added, in reference to his outside earnings when he was on the back benches.
Another member of the 2019 intake said they felt as if Downing Street had used them as “cannon fodder”. They said: “The PM has not really engaged with us in the aftermath. We’ve had far more from the chancellor in terms of an apology and showing a bit of humility about it. It’s all so tone-deaf.”....
...A senior MP warned Johnson against a kneejerk reaction to the anger of his newest MPs. “Boris shouldn’t just shift to listening only to the 2019ers,” they said. “Yes they’re more numerous, but the Spartans [the supporters of a hard Brexit] are more dangerous. Ask Theresa May. They literally brought down a prime minister only two years ago.”
Interesting that even the Express is beginning to get it. The Tory party plan of firing up the Brexitism may not be a good one. People want a further referendum and want to Rejoin. Starmer is at risk of missing the boat on this too with "make Brexit work".
So when are the Lib Dems to come out and support rejoining rather than obfuscation
Rejoining will only work if and when the country as a whole want it to work. One of the reasons this has continued to be such a mess is the fissure running down the country. In addition, if we were to half-heartedly rejoin, what are the odds that we’d flip around yet again and demand another exit?
A revolving door membership suits no-one.
To get people to want to rejoin and to have that widely spread and settled would require showing that closer alignment (Single Market first, and then actively wanting to be part of more and more programmes) would work and be beneficial and wanted.
So - working for closer alignment and getting to demonstrate that it is desirable for all (or, conversely, prove that it isn’t) is the best way to have a genuine and lasting Rejoin - without sowing the seeds for yet another Brexit. Learning the lessons from the past few years where both sides poisoned the discourse with their own haste, intolerance, and failure to consider the crucial question of: “then what?”
Spot on. Rejoining in the short term is almost as silly as an idea as a no deal Brexit was. Perhaps in 15-20 years, if a consistent clear majority are in favour and the EU structures are working well, but in the short term anyone who wants a closer relationship with the EU should be focused on alignment and being good neighbours who can work constructively together, not rejoin.
Yes, and that is broadly the LD policy, with Labour coming out in even more dilute form.
Politics is what it is, and elections are too. The issue the LDs will have to be clear about in their policy is: What is the timetable for a return to freedom of movement.
If you could be in the SM without FoM we wouldn't be where we are.
LD are keen on FoM, but obviously our ability to bring it back would be dependent on the post election position.
Also effected by how far the EuCo have got off their backsides and implemented their new electronic border system, and how straightforward that makes travel.
It won't placate died-in-the-wool FBPE with homes in France, but for a lot of eg holidaymakers it will solve many issues.
Fascinating story in The Times, really split emerging between the old guard and the 2019. Boris Johnson thinks the sleaze stuff will blow over and isn't in much contact with the 2019ers.
....Many of the 2019 intake turned on Johnson privately over the past week. “The party needs leadership and he’s nowhere to be seen on this issue,” one said. “Boris has done a disappearing act and this is all starting to take hold.”
Another called on Johnson to make himself the voice of public anger over second jobs. “He shouldn’t try to ride this out. He needs to show the public he’s furious, like Cameron did during expenses,” they said. “But I appreciate that’s difficult for him,” they added, in reference to his outside earnings when he was on the back benches.
Another member of the 2019 intake said they felt as if Downing Street had used them as “cannon fodder”. They said: “The PM has not really engaged with us in the aftermath. We’ve had far more from the chancellor in terms of an apology and showing a bit of humility about it. It’s all so tone-deaf.”....
...A senior MP warned Johnson against a kneejerk reaction to the anger of his newest MPs. “Boris shouldn’t just shift to listening only to the 2019ers,” they said. “Yes they’re more numerous, but the Spartans [the supporters of a hard Brexit] are more dangerous. Ask Theresa May. They literally brought down a prime minister only two years ago.”
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I have often wondered who actually pays real money for the self serving drivel of minor politicians, the illiterate self serving scrawlings of major ones, and non expert public figures writing useless derivative books on Churchill and Shakespeare.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I reckon my father and some of his ex colleagues would buy a copy on day one.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I reckon my father and some of his ex colleagues would buy a copy on day one.
Professional curiosity would kick in.
Is he an undertaker?
Retired doctor who came out of retirement for the vaccine campaign.
Hundreds of Wisconsin National Guard troops have been activated in preparation for a possible verdict next week in the Kenosha murder trial of Kyle Rittenhouse, according to Gov. Tony Evers' office.
Fascinating story in The Times, really split emerging between the old guard and the 2019. Boris Johnson thinks the sleaze stuff will blow over and isn't in much contact with the 2019ers.
....Many of the 2019 intake turned on Johnson privately over the past week. “The party needs leadership and he’s nowhere to be seen on this issue,” one said. “Boris has done a disappearing act and this is all starting to take hold.”
Another called on Johnson to make himself the voice of public anger over second jobs. “He shouldn’t try to ride this out. He needs to show the public he’s furious, like Cameron did during expenses,” they said. “But I appreciate that’s difficult for him,” they added, in reference to his outside earnings when he was on the back benches.
Another member of the 2019 intake said they felt as if Downing Street had used them as “cannon fodder”. They said: “The PM has not really engaged with us in the aftermath. We’ve had far more from the chancellor in terms of an apology and showing a bit of humility about it. It’s all so tone-deaf.”....
...A senior MP warned Johnson against a kneejerk reaction to the anger of his newest MPs. “Boris shouldn’t just shift to listening only to the 2019ers,” they said. “Yes they’re more numerous, but the Spartans [the supporters of a hard Brexit] are more dangerous. Ask Theresa May. They literally brought down a prime minister only two years ago.”
There's plenty more of it, Nadine Dorries at the heart of it.
Getting lectured about being loyal to the party leader by the likes of Dorries and Rees-Mogg is one of those ironies few can stomach.
I wonder how many of the 2019 intake are pondering if they have their seat because of Boris's unique strategic genius or because the Brexit Party stood candidates syphoning anti-Tory votes from Labour.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I have often wondered who actually pays real money for the self serving drivel of minor politicians, the illiterate self serving scrawlings of major ones, and non expert public figures writing useless derivative books on Churchill and Shakespeare.
I'm currently reading Obama's most recent book. Doubt I'd buy this tome for either myself or as a present though.
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I'm assuming this one of those deals where the publisher pays an advance for the publicity not expecting to recoup it on sales? Would anyone here hold their hand up and say they'd buy this, or at least before it hit the remainder bin?
I reckon my father and some of his ex colleagues would buy a copy on day one.
There will be more "use of Parliamentary facilities for political campaigning activity" cases coming along.
Maybe even non-parliamentary! It surely can't be too long before people WFH on employer-provided equipment are called in and possibly sacked for using it to post on social media or watch Netflix.
Fascinating story in The Times, really split emerging between the old guard and the 2019. Boris Johnson thinks the sleaze stuff will blow over and isn't in much contact with the 2019ers.
....Many of the 2019 intake turned on Johnson privately over the past week. “The party needs leadership and he’s nowhere to be seen on this issue,” one said. “Boris has done a disappearing act and this is all starting to take hold.”
Another called on Johnson to make himself the voice of public anger over second jobs. “He shouldn’t try to ride this out. He needs to show the public he’s furious, like Cameron did during expenses,” they said. “But I appreciate that’s difficult for him,” they added, in reference to his outside earnings when he was on the back benches.
Another member of the 2019 intake said they felt as if Downing Street had used them as “cannon fodder”. They said: “The PM has not really engaged with us in the aftermath. We’ve had far more from the chancellor in terms of an apology and showing a bit of humility about it. It’s all so tone-deaf.”....
...A senior MP warned Johnson against a kneejerk reaction to the anger of his newest MPs. “Boris shouldn’t just shift to listening only to the 2019ers,” they said. “Yes they’re more numerous, but the Spartans [the supporters of a hard Brexit] are more dangerous. Ask Theresa May. They literally brought down a prime minister only two years ago.”
It would be nice if there was a disconnect here, with Boris and his cohort simply thinking about how it might blow over (and accordingly don't actually give a shit), being surprised by the 2019 intake and others not just saying they want something done, but actually wanting stuff done.
That's the thing about shift leaders sometimes - they can sell things very well, and expect people to follow along with whatever they sell, but it might be that their followers really believed them the first time and want to push on.
Comments
I have been surprised at the volatility of the polls this year though although most of it seems to have been caused by changes in propensity to vote among con/Lab voters rather than red wall voters directly switching to Starmer's Lab.
Matt Hancock would be on it.
But, yes, Oxfam books will need a special, large bin for the unread copies.
I didn't notice, which is a shame. I'm sure I would have enjoyed the party.
PS: could still have been posthumous ...
Professional curiosity would kick in.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/11/brazil-pre-sprint-race.html
No tips. Sprint races are wretched. And, with that, I'm off.
And now I really am off.
....Many of the 2019 intake turned on Johnson privately over the past week. “The party needs leadership and he’s nowhere to be seen on this issue,” one said. “Boris has done a disappearing act and this is all starting to take hold.”
Another called on Johnson to make himself the voice of public anger over second jobs. “He shouldn’t try to ride this out. He needs to show the public he’s furious, like Cameron did during expenses,” they said. “But I appreciate that’s difficult for him,” they added, in reference to his outside earnings when he was on the back benches.
Another member of the 2019 intake said they felt as if Downing Street had used them as “cannon fodder”. They said: “The PM has not really engaged with us in the aftermath. We’ve had far more from the chancellor in terms of an apology and showing a bit of humility about it. It’s all so tone-deaf.”....
...A senior MP warned Johnson against a kneejerk reaction to the anger of his newest MPs. “Boris shouldn’t just shift to listening only to the 2019ers,” they said. “Yes they’re more numerous, but the Spartans [the supporters of a hard Brexit] are more dangerous. Ask Theresa May. They literally brought down a prime minister only two years ago.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65fc76aa-43ff-11ec-96bf-de0821791f3f?shareToken=28b9b752f813b147653fa4c6b94163ff
It won't placate died-in-the-wool FBPE with homes in France, but for a lot of eg holidaymakers it will solve many issues.
Getting lectured about being loyal to the party leader by the likes of Dorries and Rees-Mogg is one of those ironies few can stomach.
Hundreds of Wisconsin National Guard troops have been activated in preparation for a possible verdict next week in the Kenosha murder trial of Kyle Rittenhouse, according to Gov. Tony Evers' office.
It won't vanish, but it will submerge.
There will be more "use of Parliamentary facilities for political campaigning activity" cases coming along.
"Hands, Face, Bottom"
(I want a cut if he uses that.)
NEW THREAD
That's the thing about shift leaders sometimes - they can sell things very well, and expect people to follow along with whatever they sell, but it might be that their followers really believed them the first time and want to push on.
I'm not sure we'd be that lucky.