I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
He tweeted a picture of his office including these flags today.
If he's going to persist with it, he might want to include that disclaimer.
Could display them as hunting trophies, big daggers through them into the wall or something to make the lack of approval clear. Vanquished enemies: communist USSR, apartheid South Africa and, er, Wales?
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
The Progressive Unionist Party, which is politically aligned to the paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force, has said there is "no basis" for unionists to continue to support Northern Ireland's Good Friday peace agreement. The PUP said the consent principle, which is central to the 1998 accord, has been undermined by Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol. Aside from the protocol, party leader Billy Hutchinson said the peace process flowing from the agreement had not faithfully observed the text of the accord and had instead led to an incremental weakening of the Union by delivering repeated concessions to nationalists.
A significant development as the PUP supported and campaigned for the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 unlike the DUP.
That leaves the UUP as the only Unionist party left which supported the GFA in 1998 and still supports it (even if they also wish to remove the NI Protocol)
Doesn't understand how parliament works? How can that be, with Jacob Rees-Mogg as Leader of the House of Commons? Surely he has all the expertise any government would ever need?
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 42m Covid cases are falling rapidly, not rising Covid cases in schools are falling extremely rapidly, not rising Covid cases are going to be lower this Winter than they were in October, not higher There is now absolutely no risk whatever of the NHS ever being swamped by covid cases
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
There was a recent Health Foundation report that estimated the average number of years of life lost from a COVID death was 10.
So at excess deaths of ~120k then that's ~1.2 million lost years of life.
That's the equivalent of a single week of restrictions. Just one week, matches every single death through the entire pandemic to date.
But that's not the correct comparison. Those were the deaths we had with restrictions. You need to compare against the deaths there would have been without restrictions. That number has to be estimated, but it's certainly far higher than the deaths we did see.
(This is leaving aside whether your formula for the severity of restrictions is valid.)
Yes we had restrictions but we lifted them months ago.
The question was whether it was appropriate to still have restrictions and the point being that the UK is one of the only countries to have come out of the pandemic without any legal restrictions anymore already.
If you say the best performance is determined by dropping all legal restrictions, then the UK has among the best performances. However, it seems apparent that no-one else is particularly convinced that's the right criterion.
In order to convince people of that criterion, you had moved on to an argument based on numbers. Great... except your numbers are wrong. Do you wish to engage with that and come back with numbers that are right?
Also, you never answered my question about Portugal? Has Portugal done best on the War of Drugs by dropping the most legal restrictions?
The numbers aren't wrong, you may not like them but that doesn't make them wrong.
Yes Portugal absolutely have by a long way done better on the "War of Drugs", as have the Netherlands, Canada and other nations. We should be legalising drugs and treating it as a health and economics issue, not a law and order one.
Thanks for answering my drugs question. I'd probably agree with you on that.
As for the numbers, merely asserting they are right is not terribly convincing. There seems little point in me repeating myself, however. I refer you to my earlier comments.
More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.
GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.
A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.
Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.
Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.
They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
They're not employees - they're under services contracts. I'm not sure how the detail of this proposal works, but it's the continuation of 25 years of the same.
The government gets to specify where the services need to be provided. Again, if that's not to their liking the GPs can quit. Except they won't because they know how good a number they're onto. One of my cousins is an A&E consultant, the loathing he has for GPs is higher than even I would have figured. He genuinely believes that if all GPs were made redundant tomorrow no one in the country would notice.
I've recently been toying with the idea that we should replace GPs with nurse run triage and put the money saved into the necessary specialist services for mental health, cancer diagnosis and treatment, obesity reduction, elderly care, physiotherapy, etc.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
I note remarks on the BBC from Richard Graham MP on the Paterson business again rather giving the game away - whilst saying he didn't really do it due to gov pressure he was explicit he and others were doing it as they felt Paterson was owed it and it was most definitely about his case. He accepted the committee was in effect an appeal yet was disingenuous about feeling Owen, personally, deserved another.
Breaking: Yorkshire have settled employment tribunal case with Azeem Rafiq - and does not include an NDA "the club was wrong to have made that demand" says Lord Patel
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
Those of us on PB discovered that we were able to book our boosters in advance over the weekend.
And yet the BBC and Sky News still think that the system only opened up today.
Another example of PB being the leading source of Covid information.
Although apparently the system will let you book a vooster 24 hours before the 6 months is up, and the centre then turn people away when they turn up in a stunning victory for common duncery.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.
GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.
A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.
Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.
Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.
They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
They're not employees - they're under services contracts. I'm not sure how the detail of this proposal works, but it's the continuation of 25 years of the same.
The government gets to specify where the services need to be provided. Again, if that's not to their liking the GPs can quit. Except they won't because they know how good a number they're onto. One of my cousins is an A&E consultant, the loathing he has for GPs is higher than even I would have figured. He genuinely believes that if all GPs were made redundant tomorrow no one in the country would notice.
I've recently been toying with the idea that we should replace GPs with nurse run triage and put the money saved into the necessary specialist services for mental health, cancer diagnosis and treatment, obesity reduction, elderly care, physiotherapy, etc.
I think GPs work better than the alternative, healthcare systems where you go directly to specialists. I would not seek to replace them... but I agree that some of what we expect GPs to do could be more efficiently and better done with a broader skills mix tackling various problems. For example, my borough has a self-referral physiotherapy service.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
An equally big story is how well the Greens are doing. They have been in third place for a while with YouGov (as well as with a pollster whom I've never heard of), while languishing with the rest.
It will be interesting to see how well they do in the upcoming by-elections.
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
About time.
They're clearly waiting for COP26 to be over before doing it. No point waiting any longer once that's finished with, bring it on.
The Progressive Unionist Party, which is politically aligned to the paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force, has said there is "no basis" for unionists to continue to support Northern Ireland's Good Friday peace agreement. The PUP said the consent principle, which is central to the 1998 accord, has been undermined by Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol. Aside from the protocol, party leader Billy Hutchinson said the peace process flowing from the agreement had not faithfully observed the text of the accord and had instead led to an incremental weakening of the Union by delivering repeated concessions to nationalists.
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
It's simply extraordinary that the taxpayer subsidises landlords of some higher rate taxpayers who have children (And any higher earning single parent UC will be down to mahoosive 'that there London' rents). How on earth have we ended up in that position ?
"After the 1994 congressional elections, Bill Clinton reoriented his administration to the center and saved his presidency. Mr. Biden should follow his lead, listen to centrists, push back on the left and reorient his policies to address the mounting economic issues people are facing."
"Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema are not outliers in the Democratic Party — they are in fact the very heart of the Democratic Party, given that 53 percent of Democrats classify themselves as moderates or conservative. While Democrats support the Build Back Better initiative, 60 percent of Democrats (and 65 percent of the country) support the efforts of these moderates to rein it in. It’s Mr. Sanders from Vermont and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez from New York who represent areas ideologically far from the mainstream of America."
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Must we risk that every time? Every step of the negotiations and beyond has had the sides play silly buggers for transparent political advantage, and I'm sick of it since as they do that I have no way of judging which matters are genuinely substantive. The rhetoric is identical each time whether real or fake.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
No, it needs unanimous consent because there's aspects to the TCA which aren't trade related. Honestly, the Irish are hopecasting that Poland and most of Eastern Europe will vote to piss the UK off. The Irish also wanted to hold up full ratification until the NI protocol was implemented by the UK. That didn't happen either.
One thing the government has learned is that in the EU money talks and more businesses and jobs in the EU depend on the TCA than anything to do with the Irish border. Hence the tough negotiation stance today now that the TCA has been fully ratified. Throwing it away is unlikely in the extreme. As one of my colleagues has constantly pointed out, what does Italy get out of reducing exports to the UK? Most of the 26 now see the Irish border as a bilateral problem for Ireland, just as they saw the fishing rights as a bilateral problem for France. The EU didn't intervene in the latter and is extremely unlikely to do so in the former, mostly because other nations won't let it.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Must we risk that every time? Every step of the negotiations and beyond has had the sides play silly buggers for transparent political advantage, and I'm sick of it since as they do that I have no way of judging which matters are genuinely substantive.
Yes we must because its the only way to actually get progress.
One interesting Brexit development is that in the absence of Lugano, some Dutch MPs are talking about reviving a bilateral treaty from before the UK joined the EEC.
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
It's simply extraordinary that the taxpayer subsidises landlords of some higher rate taxpayers who have children (And any higher earning single parent UC will be down to mahoosive 'that there London' rents). How on earth have we ended up in that position ?
Actually the IFS example figures are based on rent of £750 a month, which they say is average for whole country for three bed house/flat (the example involves a lone parent and two children of different genders (hence bedrooms)).
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
That story has been going round for months.
Ah. I'm not close to the Inns of Court.
Save for having had lunch once several years ago at the Inns of Court Yeomanry Mess.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
However, even Mail readers seem to be cynically predicting this and factoring it in, for themselves. His behaviour seems to be have reached some sort of critical point of transparency and obviousness, much as his old boss at the Telegraph predicted - although I think he said it would take around three years, not already to have taken place after two.
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
It's simply extraordinary that the taxpayer subsidises landlords of some higher rate taxpayers who have children (And any higher earning single parent UC will be down to mahoosive 'that there London' rents). How on earth have we ended up in that position ?
Actually the IFS example figures are based on rent of £750 a month, which they say is average for whole country for three bed house/flat (the example involves a lone parent and two children of different genders (hence bedrooms)).
If it is different 'genders' does that mean you can swing UC/housing benefit for an extra bedroom by getting* one of your sons to self-identify as female, for example?
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Yes QMV as long as it is a pure trade agreement matter. If it involves anything else then it requires unanimity. This is why the EU-Canada deal foundered for so long because it was more than just pure trade.
I think the 'trade deal' was just pure trade so it is probably going to be QMV although I am not certain.
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
It's simply extraordinary that the taxpayer subsidises landlords of some higher rate taxpayers who have children (And any higher earning single parent UC will be down to mahoosive 'that there London' rents). How on earth have we ended up in that position ?
Actually the IFS example figures are based on rent of £750 a month, which they say is average for whole country for three bed house/flat (the example involves a lone parent and two children of different genders (hence bedrooms)).
If it is different 'genders' does that mean you can swing UC/housing benefit for an extra bedroom by getting* one of your sons to self-identify as female, for example?
Only if the children are over 10, otherwise they can share a room.
As for self-identifying given that it's HMRC who ultimately decide what you get I doubt it.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.
I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?
Yes, it is. WTF is going on there? Surely this isn't real.
Places he visited in the 1980s apparently, not an endorsement.
Though I'm not sure a trip to Wales is something to write home about.
Seems a little arbitrary. And also seems unlikely that he only visited four places in the 80s, two of which were highly controversial and one was the least controversial destination imaginable. And it doesn't explain the Grand Union flag - presumably he didn't go there in the 80s?
Perhaps he was trolling a US visitor, although it does seem to have been there a while.
Perhaps the Union flag without a cross of St Patrick appeals for some reason?
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
That story has been going round for months.
And they still haven't found one?
They’ve found a few Brexit Ultras who have bad form in this. Remember the lot that talked about Article XXIV of GATT meant that the EU had to give us a deal.
Might have much credibility as Lord Goldsmith* on whether invading Iraq was lawful.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
I'm a bit late to this but I have just caught up with the phenomenal rugby talent that is Marcus Smith
So I have spent almost an hour watching highlights on YouTube. The highlight of the highlights might be this near-unbelievable try for Quins against Wasps (voted the Try of the Season). But there are videos like this going back five years to his days as a sixth form prodigy
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
That story has been going round for months.
Ah. I'm not close to the Inns of Court.
Save for having had lunch once several years ago at the Inns of Court Yeomanry Mess.
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
That story has been going round for months.
And they still haven't found one?
They’ve found a few Brexit Ultras who have bad form in this. Remember the lot that talked about Article XXIV of GATT meant that the EU had to give us a deal.
Might have much credibility as Lord Goldsmith* on whether invading Iraq was lawful.
*Peter not Zac.
The EU did give us a deal.
And as Max has succinctly put it, on the UK's terms with regards to governance etc
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
That story has been going round for months.
And they still haven't found one?
They’ve found a few Brexit Ultras who have bad form in this. Remember the lot that talked about Article XXIV of GATT meant that the EU had to give us a deal.
Might have much credibility as Lord Goldsmith* on whether invading Iraq was lawful.
*Peter not Zac.
The EU did give us a deal.
And as Max has succinctly put it, on the UK's terms with regards to governance etc
They did but not because of Article XXIV of GATT more likely to do with the fact we compromised, you know because Boris Johnson did what he previously said he wouldn't do.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
It's simply extraordinary that the taxpayer subsidises landlords of some higher rate taxpayers who have children (And any higher earning single parent UC will be down to mahoosive 'that there London' rents). How on earth have we ended up in that position ?
Actually the IFS example figures are based on rent of £750 a month, which they say is average for whole country for three bed house/flat (the example involves a lone parent and two children of different genders (hence bedrooms)).
If it is different 'genders' does that mean you can swing UC/housing benefit for an extra bedroom by getting* one of your sons to self-identify as female, for example?
Only if the children are over 10, otherwise they can share a room.
As for self-identifying given that it's HMRC who ultimately decide what you get I doubt it.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Why would you take what an Irish minister says seriously?
Sounds like you're girding your loins again, Philip, with this Art 16 business, but I fear you'll be disappointed. The bluff - as with No Deal Brexit - is on our side. Johnson/Frost are blowharding. We won't trigger Art 16. It's possible I'm wrong, applying the same logic which worked before to something which no longer suits, but I don't think so. I hope we get a 'yes/no' betfair market on this with 'no' at a backable price in which case I'll be doing it.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
I seem to remember someone pointed out in the very early days of Boris being PM that he would have this problem.
As Mayor of London he appointed his own team and had completely control over hiring them, at No 10 he gets what he is given / is available from within the Civil Service.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
No, we need a new BoZo
He's not going anywhere despite this polling. He'll have to poll very badly for many months before the Tories think of replacing him. I guess he might retire once Covid is obviously done - that is possible (but not probable). He will try and make it to late 2023 and secure another win, then likely retire soon after that to make millions from the memoir
Post-Boris politics is going to be interesting. For al his flaws, Bozza has been a dominant figure for half a decade. He won the most important vote in modern British history, and he secured a remarkable majority three years later
What will he be like after he steps down? Will he become some grand elder statesman? Peculiar thought
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
I seem to remember someone pointed out in the very early days of Boris being PM that he would have this problem.
As Mayor of London he appointed his own team and had completely control over hiring them, at No 10 he gets what he is given / is available from within the Civil Service.
Is that true? I find it hard to believe. He hires people outside the box. Dom Cummings is one such
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
I seem to remember someone pointed out in the very early days of Boris being PM that he would have this problem.
As Mayor of London he appointed his own team and had completely control over hiring them, at No 10 he gets what he is given / is available from within the Civil Service.
Is that true? I find it hard to believe. He hires people outside the box. Dom Cummings is one such
Not the best example, given he has no political sense either.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
I understand the Speaker will tell the Commons later that he will not now set up his own special committee to review MPs' standards, but instead delegate what he intended to do to the House's Committee on Standards whose report will now widen to take in last week's controversies.
If they do enter the EU, and when Germany doesn't grant them asylum, how many guesses on where they go next?
Maybe I'm incredibly thick but I didn't think Poland had a border with Greece and Turkey.
I had to stop and think, too; must mean forward deployment to help the Greeks on the border in Thrace (?), between Salonika and Istanbul. Perhaps also the Aegean islands.
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
It's simply extraordinary that the taxpayer subsidises landlords of some higher rate taxpayers who have children (And any higher earning single parent UC will be down to mahoosive 'that there London' rents). How on earth have we ended up in that position ?
A number of strange assumptions in that rather cherry-picked case.
For a start, they assume that UC pays in full for "average" rent; in reality it is capped at considerably less than that - 30th percentile in the local market in the housing category.
Also strange things about assuming the age of one child to increase the child benefit to the max.
It would be good to see a critique by an expert in the detail, which is not me.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
I seem to remember someone pointed out in the very early days of Boris being PM that he would have this problem.
As Mayor of London he appointed his own team and had completely control over hiring them, at No 10 he gets what he is given / is available from within the Civil Service.
That's not accurate. At No. 10, Boris has appointed a bunch of non-Civil Service advisors, or SPADS, to keep him on the straight and narrow. They're not doing a very good job.
As far as the Civil Service is concerned, Boris and Cummings did not disguise their contempt for the CS from the start - indeed, Cummings had a clear-out. That has spread to other Ministers; particularly, but not only, the Home Office.
Ironically, if the PM and his Ministers listened more, not less, to senior civil servants, it is more likely that they wouldn't have broken the code of conduct or become mired in sleaze so much. Too late now: senior civil servants have either left, live in fear of Ministers so keep quiet, or are ignored. It doesn't make for good governance.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
I seem to remember someone pointed out in the very early days of Boris being PM that he would have this problem.
As Mayor of London he appointed his own team and had completely control over hiring them, at No 10 he gets what he is given / is available from within the Civil Service.
Is that true? I find it hard to believe. He hires people outside the box. Dom Cummings is one such
Not the best example, given he has no political sense either.
Cummings has excellent political nous. This is a silly remark. Cummings has won several referendums and an election. It's a shame Boris lost him.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Why would you take what an Irish minister says seriously?
Sounds like you're girding your loins again, Philip, with this Art 16 business, but I fear you'll be disappointed. The bluff - as with No Deal Brexit - is on our side. Johnson/Frost are blowharding. We won't trigger Art 16. It's possible I'm wrong, applying the same logic which worked before to something which no longer suits, but I don't think so. I hope we get a 'yes/no' betfair market on this with 'no' at a backable price in which case I'll be doing it.
The EU were bluffing over governance and their bluff was called and the TCA allows divergence in a way we were told wasn't possible.
The EU were bluffing over NI and their bluff was called and the NI Protocol includes Article 16 and a unilateral exit which we were told wasn't possible.
Since Frost and Boris replaced Robbins and May, the EU's bluffs keep getting called. But if you wish to think that this time will be different, then in the words of Angela Lansbury - be our guest.
If they do enter the EU, and when Germany doesn't grant them asylum, how many guesses on where they go next?
Maybe I'm incredibly thick but I didn't think Poland had a border with Greece and Turkey.
I had to stop and think, too; must mean forward deployment to help the Greeks on the border in Thrace (?), between Salonika and Istanbul. Perhaps also the Aegean islands.
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
I seem to remember someone pointed out in the very early days of Boris being PM that he would have this problem.
As Mayor of London he appointed his own team and had completely control over hiring them, at No 10 he gets what he is given / is available from within the Civil Service.
Is that true? I find it hard to believe. He hires people outside the box. Dom Cummings is one such
Not the best example, given he has no political sense either.
Cummings has excellent political nous. This is a silly remark. Cummings has won several referendums and an election. It's a shame Boris lost him.
He won one referendum and one election. He made contributions to a few other referendums, that he later retconned into him taking on the whole universe and winning (e.g. NE Referendum he worked on for two days and came up with one slogan, the one about white elephants - not invented the campaign, sustained it and mightily triumphed in it as he claimed).
The snag is that in doing so he usually creates far more problems than he solves by giving hostages to fortune. Hence my remark on him having no political sense.
The Committee on Standards, chaired by Labour's Chris Bryant, is already looking at second jobs and and an appeals process for findings against MPs. Ironically, this is the very outcome the Govt was trying to bypass last week by setting up the now-aborted Whittingdale committee.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Why would you take what an Irish minister says seriously?
Sounds like you're girding your loins again, Philip, with this Art 16 business, but I fear you'll be disappointed. The bluff - as with No Deal Brexit - is on our side. Johnson/Frost are blowharding. We won't trigger Art 16. It's possible I'm wrong, applying the same logic which worked before to something which no longer suits, but I don't think so. I hope we get a 'yes/no' betfair market on this with 'no' at a backable price in which case I'll be doing it.
The EU were bluffing over governance and their bluff was called and the TCA allows divergence in a way we were told wasn't possible.
The EU were bluffing over NI and their bluff was called and the NI Protocol includes Article 16 and a unilateral exit which we were told wasn't possible.
Since Frost and Boris replaced Robbins and May, the EU's bluffs keep getting called. But if you wish to think that this time will be different, then in the words of Angela Lansbury - be our guest.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Why would you take what an Irish minister says seriously?
Sounds like you're girding your loins again, Philip, with this Art 16 business, but I fear you'll be disappointed. The bluff - as with No Deal Brexit - is on our side. Johnson/Frost are blowharding. We won't trigger Art 16. It's possible I'm wrong, applying the same logic which worked before to something which no longer suits, but I don't think so. I hope we get a 'yes/no' betfair market on this with 'no' at a backable price in which case I'll be doing it.
The EU were bluffing over governance and their bluff was called and the TCA allows divergence in a way we were told wasn't possible.
The EU were bluffing over NI and their bluff was called and the NI Protocol includes Article 16 and a unilateral exit which we were told wasn't possible.
Since Frost and Boris replaced Robbins and May, the EU's bluffs keep getting called. But if you wish to think that this time will be different, then in the words of Angela Lansbury - be our guest.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
They actually lost 4 points to the Greens though they went up by 5 to 11%
Word is that the UK Govt is looking around the Inns of Court for a QC who will justify triggering Article 16; and it's all going to kick off at the end of the month.
That story has been going round for months.
And they still haven't found one?
They’ve found a few Brexit Ultras who have bad form in this. Remember the lot that talked about Article XXIV of GATT meant that the EU had to give us a deal.
Might have much credibility as Lord Goldsmith* on whether invading Iraq was lawful.
*Peter not Zac.
The EU did give us a deal.
And as Max has succinctly put it, on the UK's terms with regards to governance etc
They did but not because of Article XXIV of GATT more likely to do with the fact we compromised, you know because Boris Johnson did what he previously said he wouldn't do.
That's not entirely fair, Boris said he wouldn't sign that specific incarnation of the NI protocol and he didn't. The version signed by Boris and Frost included A16 and a trusted trader programme to cover 98% of NI/GB goods movement. Those two additions mean that the NI protocol is vastly different to what was previously agreed by May. One of the more underreported facts about this dispute is that the EU is at fault for not holding up their end of the bargain wrt the trusted traders scheme. That is ultimately the ammunition that the government needs for pulling the A16 lever. The main reason the EU will have to live with it is because they are in the wrong and know they are in the wrong. Whatever they chat about with cancelling the TCA is for the birds. There is simply no appetite within the 26 other nations to reopen Brexit. Ireland will have to learn to live with this as much as we will.
The reason they are pre-announcing these retaliations is because they know they will never happen, it's all a bluff from Ireland and a few commissioners.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.
GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.
A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.
Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.
Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.
What's also interesting is that the EU are showing just how limited their range of retaliatory measures are. That the only one they can come up with is cancelling the TCA or more border pedantry is extremely telling. There's zero room for the EU to retaliate within the TCA and they know it.
One of my mates just laid me ten grand that Trent Alexander Arnold would have more FPL points than Joao Cancelo by the end of January
All my mates are laughing at me. I had Aubameyang as captain this week. -2 points - missed penalty, yellow card. I give up.
I have him in my team - what a stinker he had! He also tapped in a shot from Odegaard that was going in anyway - and was offside! Should have lost more points for that
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
Comments
If he's going to persist with it, he might want to include that disclaimer.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/07/eu-could-shelve-brexit-trade-deal-if-uk-triggers-article-16-irish-minister-warns
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/15818
That leaves the UUP as the only Unionist party left which supported the GFA in 1998 and still supports it (even if they also wish to remove the NI Protocol)
(/sarcasm)
Why would you take what an Irish minister says seriously?
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
42m
Covid cases are falling rapidly, not rising
Covid cases in schools are falling extremely rapidly, not rising
Covid cases are going to be lower this Winter than they were in October, not higher
There is now absolutely no risk whatever of the NHS ever being swamped by covid cases
As for the numbers, merely asserting they are right is not terribly convincing. There seems little point in me repeating myself, however. I refer you to my earlier comments.
https://twitter.com/martynziegler/status/1457719756291821569
That doesn't mean they're going to be prepared to collapse the TCA on the back of that.
It will be interesting to see how well they do in the upcoming by-elections.
They're clearly waiting for COP26 to be over before doing it. No point waiting any longer once that's finished with, bring it on.
https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/The,Ireland-Northern,Ireland,Protocol,Consensus,or,Conflict,v2.pdf
"After the 1994 congressional elections, Bill Clinton reoriented his administration to the center and saved his presidency. Mr. Biden should follow his lead, listen to centrists, push back on the left and reorient his policies to address the mounting economic issues people are facing."
"Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema are not outliers in the Democratic Party — they are in fact the very heart of the Democratic Party, given that 53 percent of Democrats classify themselves as moderates or conservative. While Democrats support the Build Back Better initiative, 60 percent of Democrats (and 65 percent of the country) support the efforts of these moderates to rein it in. It’s Mr. Sanders from Vermont and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez from New York who represent areas ideologically far from the mainstream of America."
NYTimes
They forecast the EU agreeing to Article 16 being included in the NI Protocol when originally it was supposed to never be a unilateral way out?
Can't see them putting up with this for long.
https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1457718876834344964?s=20
If they do enter the EU, and when Germany doesn't grant them asylum, how many guesses on where they go next?
One thing the government has learned is that in the EU money talks and more businesses and jobs in the EU depend on the TCA than anything to do with the Irish border. Hence the tough negotiation stance today now that the TCA has been fully ratified. Throwing it away is unlikely in the extreme. As one of my colleagues has constantly pointed out, what does Italy get out of reducing exports to the UK? Most of the 26 now see the Irish border as a bilateral problem for Ireland, just as they saw the fishing rights as a bilateral problem for France. The EU didn't intervene in the latter and is extremely unlikely to do so in the former, mostly because other nations won't let it.
https://twitter.com/gavclaw/status/1457697694286221316
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
Save for having had lunch once several years ago at the Inns of Court Yeomanry Mess.
Does that count?
He's definitely already in deep trouble.
I think the 'trade deal' was just pure trade so it is probably going to be QMV although I am not certain.
As for self-identifying given that it's HMRC who ultimately decide what you get I doubt it.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Perhaps the Union flag without a cross of St Patrick appeals for some reason?
Might have much credibility as Lord Goldsmith* on whether invading Iraq was lawful.
*Peter not Zac.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
So I have spent almost an hour watching highlights on YouTube. The highlight of the highlights might be this near-unbelievable try for Quins against Wasps (voted the Try of the Season). But there are videos like this going back five years to his days as a sixth form prodigy
https://youtu.be/Cgp92QOmdcc
He can also tackle and kick and pass like a dream. England have potentially the best rugby player in the world
And as Max has succinctly put it, on the UK's terms with regards to governance etc
England opener Jason Roy will miss the knockout stages of the T20 World Cup after being ruled out with a torn left calf.
Roy, 31, sustained the injury in defeat by South Africa on Saturday in England's final group game.
England, who will face New Zealand in Abu Dhabi in the semi-finals on Wednesday, have called up Hampshire batter James Vince to replace Roy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/59199674
Aren't we more likely to open with two WKs - Buttler & Bairstow - and bring in a third - Billings - a bit lower down the order?
As Mayor of London he appointed his own team and had completely control over hiring them, at No 10 he gets what he is given / is available from within the Civil Service.
How Sweden swerved Covid disaster
https://unherd.com/2021/11/how-sweden-swerved-covid-disaster/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=290fab271b&mc_eid=836634e34b
Post-Boris politics is going to be interesting. For al his flaws, Bozza has been a dominant figure for half a decade. He won the most important vote in modern British history, and he secured a remarkable majority three years later
What will he be like after he steps down? Will he become some grand elder statesman? Peculiar thought
Otherwise, there's a series of organ pipes on the swell oboe that a £5 note would clean, and that's much less wasteful.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1457737366488207374?s=20
For a start, they assume that UC pays in full for "average" rent; in reality it is capped at considerably less than that - 30th percentile in the local market in the housing category.
Also strange things about assuming the age of one child to increase the child benefit to the max.
It would be good to see a critique by an expert in the detail, which is not me.
As far as the Civil Service is concerned, Boris and Cummings did not disguise their contempt for the CS from the start - indeed, Cummings had a clear-out. That has spread to other Ministers; particularly, but not only, the Home Office.
Ironically, if the PM and his Ministers listened more, not less, to senior civil servants, it is more likely that they wouldn't have broken the code of conduct or become mired in sleaze so much. Too late now: senior civil servants have either left, live in fear of Ministers so keep quiet, or are ignored. It doesn't make for good governance.
The EU were bluffing over NI and their bluff was called and the NI Protocol includes Article 16 and a unilateral exit which we were told wasn't possible.
Since Frost and Boris replaced Robbins and May, the EU's bluffs keep getting called. But if you wish to think that this time will be different, then in the words of Angela Lansbury - be our guest.
https://greekreporter.com/2020/03/10/poland-austria-to-send-hundreds-of-border-guards-to-greece-as-eu-solidarity-grows/
The snag is that in doing so he usually creates far more problems than he solves by giving hostages to fortune. Hence my remark on him having no political sense.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1457738096225701890?s=20
Two of the greatest detectives partnered together.
The reason they are pre-announcing these retaliations is because they know they will never happen, it's all a bluff from Ireland and a few commissioners.
(Hypocrisy from me, as I did exactly the same...)
Or is it the usual suspects playing EU "Bad Cop"?
Coveney has quite the history of playing games.
Healthcare coverage means healthcare coverage.
You don’t want the contract, that’s fine. Go into private practice without an NHS contract.
What numbers should we expect today? 31k or thereabouts? There was a slight day on day increase last Monday.
Prob off pens now too
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course