Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
You and the other members of the "tribe" are trying to shout out people you do not agree with. . It wont work.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Indeed. It's strategically useful to keep fear bubbling away where it can thrive. The doves captured London long ago (although it has barely registered an exit wave, as so many people had the virus earlier on) but, from reports on here, the Covid Perception Index remains pretty hawkish in much of provincial England. As you say, that's quite handy for the vax programme.
Given how vindictive Boris Johnson is to those who dare criticise him this contribution by Aaron is going to put him in the PM's bad books for even longer.
He's a Red Waller iirc. Might he be thinking of what will work back in the constituency?
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
His posting on Covid compared to yours is like Led Zeppelin vs Spinal Tap.
Nine months before a general election is not mid term.
That rather depends on when the GE was scheduled and announced I'd think, since you couldn't guarantee term length other than the maximum. 2001 was 11 months early, 9 months before that takes us to 20 months from the scheduled GE, which seems pretty mid term.
Of course in reality few terms max out, but I think mid term has to be pretty broad.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
His posting on Covid compared to yours is like Led Zeppelin vs Spinal Tap.
Thanks v much.
Song Remains the Same = 7.7 IMDb This is Spinal Tap = 7.9 IMDb
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
Based on the latest news about the incoming coalition government's views on covid restictions, it doesn't sound like they're going to be proactive enough to stop a big wave of infections. They're just talking about bringing back free testing and vaccine mandates for workplaces, but nothing in the immediate term.
In Germany, pretty much all Covid restrictions are the responsibility of the Lander.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Indeed. It's strategically useful to keep fear bubbling away where it can thrive. The doves captured London long ago (although it has barely registered an exit wave, as so many people had the virus earlier on) but, from reports on here, the Covid Perception Index remains pretty hawkish in much of provincial England. As you say, that's quite handy for the vax programme.
Here in the suburbs of Manchester, despiet the hectoring of our power-mad council, masks are getting rarer and few tremble at the thought of other humans in a way that they did shortly after freedom day. But my wife visited her mother in small town Cheshire over the weekend and masks in Tesco were still very much the rule. And apparently prevarication over socialisation is still very much in evidence out there. There are worriers here too, of course - I have colleagues who still fear to leave the house and will not return to the office (ever? if not now, when?). But they are very much in the minority. It's the first time for an age I have felt glad to be metropolitan.
That said, this is not a permanent feature. Attitudes 12 months ago were very much the reverse.
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
Based on the latest news about the incoming coalition government's views on covid restictions, it doesn't sound like they're going to be proactive enough to stop a big wave of infections. They're just talking about bringing back free testing and vaccine mandates for workplaces, but nothing in the immediate term.
The Greek government is also adamant that it won't reintroduce lockdown, the economic and social damage is too high
Continental/EU countries will do vaxports and mask mandates but no "lockdown", and they will try and brave it through the winter - is what I predict. Good luck to them, they might need it. As might we all, of course
(Which is exactly what we have here in LA. Mask mandates and vaxports.)
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
You and the other members of the "tribe" are trying to shout out people you do not agree with. . It wont work.
FYI i voted LD at the GE.
I don't want to come over all HYUFD but frankly we can happily do without your vote and to be honest following one of your random unsolicited insults the other day re the LDs it seems unlikely you ever did vote for them. Next you will be telling us you voted Labour.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
This is absolutely spot on.
Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.
There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.
Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.
So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
Based on the latest news about the incoming coalition government's views on covid restictions, it doesn't sound like they're going to be proactive enough to stop a big wave of infections. They're just talking about bringing back free testing and vaccine mandates for workplaces, but nothing in the immediate term.
In Germany, pretty much all Covid restrictions are the responsibility of the Lander.
The French and the Germans (the only two countries I've visited since covid) seem to be on top of this.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
Lol. Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns. Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument. Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.
Got to laugh, really.
Still no graphs.
Sorry to hear about your son.
If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?
And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
England still showing huge week on week falls in case numbers.
Yes, and by now one would expect school cases to be showing up, especially in the Sunday LFTs.
It’s extremely encouraging. The hypothesis that secondary school-aged children have hit herd immunity is looking stronger by the day.
That was always the key cohort because it's always been a reservoir of potential hosts for the virus even as 90% of adults have been vaccinated to enough of a degree to make us sub-standard or unviable hosts.
I really don't understand why any country continued to pursue an eradication strategy beyond the point where vaccines became readily available. The won't vaccinate cohort were always going to end up catching it, better for them to get it in the summer when initial viral load is likely to be lower and hospitals much less busy.
All true. And an eradication strategy was not feasible, anyway.
The only potential further reservoir is the 0-4 and 5-9 cohort, but the potential for issues from those is far smaller, in my opinion.
Why have the 5-9s not had it? They're surely not appreciably less social than the 10-14s.
Not really sure. The numbers from both the ONS surveys of infection and from the case numbers both point to them being significantly lower. Maybe it’s harder for them to catch it.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
But this simply isn’t true. Look at that German number-cruncher I linked below. He’s got hundreds of replies, often comparing Germany with other countries. By far the most common comparison is with the UK. Because we are a large wealthy European country, like them, but we have adopted a strikingly different policy re Covid. So our example is the most interesting to them (as it should be)
For long weeks the UK has been held up as an example of what NOT to do. Don’t open up like the crazy Brits! Mario Draghi did it a fortnight ago in Italy
But now the narrative has changed. Now British cases are falling and deaths haven’t gone mad. Meanwhile a dozen European countries have worse case rates. And through all this the Brits have kept their freedoms? Almost uniquely we haven’t even utilized vaxports. Suddenly we are the new Sweden. A possible model for others
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
Lol. Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns. Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument. Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.
Got to laugh, really.
Still no graphs.
Sorry to hear about your son.
If you want more graphs, why not go and get them yourself? The site from where they’re sourced is on all of them. I haven’t got the time or inclination to run around getting them for you. After all, I’ve concluded that you’re not amenable to evidence, so why would I waste my time (and yours) on it any further?
And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
Glad to hear it.
I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.
Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.
Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
The juxtaposition with "cases rising" being headline news for weeks certainly is striking. The falls over the last 2 weeks really have been meaningful and yet there's been next to nothing.
Where it'll become impossible to ignore is if we get cases 20,000 per day, as that's where "lowest cases since June" type stories can start.
("Lowest cases since May" is a much longer shot as it requires < 3,000 per day!)
Yes, I think there will also be a pretty rapid drop in the death rate as well because of the booster programme. It becomes difficult to ignore about two weeks from now IMO, cases under 20k and deaths in the low tens per day. 10m mostly older people will near 100% efficacy against death from COVID in two weeks. In four weeks it will be 15m and by Christmas around 25m.
It's almost a repeat of January this year, just the right side of Christmas.
My view is there is nil chance of any Plan Bs despite the stress on the NHS. By Feb Covid is expected to be background and the decision is made to tough it out till then.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
But this simply isn’t true. Look at that German number-cruncher I linked below. He’s got hundreds of replies, often comparing Germany with other countries. By far the most common comparison is with the UK. Because we are a large wealthy European country, like them, but we have adopted a strikingly different policy re Covid. So our example is the most interesting to them (as it should be)
For long weeks the UK has been held up as an example of what NOT to do. Don’t open up like the crazy Brits! Mario Draghi did it a fortnight ago in Italy
But now the narrative has changed. Now British cases are falling and deaths haven’t gone mad. Meanwhile a dozen European countries have worse case rates. And through all this the Brits have kept their freedoms? Almost uniquely we haven’t even utilized vaxports. Suddenly we are the new Sweden. A possible model for others
I sense we're about to have another unpleasant surge in the covid nationalism virus. I think we're just going to have to accept that some people are lifelong carriers and live with it.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
This is absolutely spot on.
Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.
There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.
Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.
So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
I expected Covid measure fatigue a lot sooner, but we almost seem to have gotten to a point where we had two shots, and lots have decided it is just beyond us to push people to get a third.
Rich nations have enough to give people boosters, they've had time for eveyone who could be persuaded to get a first and second shot to have done so (some benig better at this than others), so just go for it hard.
And all throughout this pandemic nations all over, and us the public in fairness, seem to have short memories. Like those people trying to point to EU second dose stats vs the UK as if they had no idea how maths works and that the UK rate woiuld increase massively after 3 months, or own own inability to see what would happen in January this year.
An example of those foreign types ‘not talking about us’, because they ‘just don’t care’
‘A high profile health expert called for Germany to follow in the UK's footsteps and get rid of Covid rules as part of its own 'Freedom Day'. But the idea has been widely slammed.
Andreas Gassen, the head of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV), said Germany should take inspiration from England and lift Covid restrictions at the end of October.
The UK government removed almost all Covid-19 legal restrictions – such as mandatory mask wearing – in England on July 19th. ‘
Interesting and very detailed article on the prospects for next year's Northern Irish assembly elections based on recent polling. Both the Shinners and DUP losing ground from last time and non-sectarian Alliance notably on the up.
Sinn Fein could end up with the First Minister but you do wonder if the Norns could be turning a leaf.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
But this simply isn’t true. Look at that German number-cruncher I linked below. He’s got hundreds of replies, often comparing Germany with other countries. By far the most common comparison is with the UK. Because we are a large wealthy European country, like them, but we have adopted a strikingly different policy re Covid. So our example is the most interesting to them (as it should be)
For long weeks the UK has been held up as an example of what NOT to do. Don’t open up like the crazy Brits! Mario Draghi did it a fortnight ago in Italy
But now the narrative has changed. Now British cases are falling and deaths haven’t gone mad. Meanwhile a dozen European countries have worse case rates. And through all this the Brits have kept their freedoms? Almost uniquely we haven’t even utilized vaxports. Suddenly we are the new Sweden. A possible model for others
I sense we're about to have another unpleasant surge in the covid nationalism virus. I think we're just going to have to accept that some people are lifelong carriers and live with it.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
But this simply isn’t true. Look at that German number-cruncher I linked below. He’s got hundreds of replies, often comparing Germany with other countries. By far the most common comparison is with the UK. Because we are a large wealthy European country, like them, but we have adopted a strikingly different policy re Covid. So our example is the most interesting to them (as it should be)
For long weeks the UK has been held up as an example of what NOT to do. Don’t open up like the crazy Brits! Mario Draghi did it a fortnight ago in Italy
But now the narrative has changed. Now British cases are falling and deaths haven’t gone mad. Meanwhile a dozen European countries have worse case rates. And through all this the Brits have kept their freedoms? Almost uniquely we haven’t even utilized vaxports. Suddenly we are the new Sweden. A possible model for others
I sense we're about to have another unpleasant surge in the covid nationalism virus. I think we're just going to have to accept that some people are lifelong carriers and live with it.
Or, you are just wrong. You have a personal struggle with admitting error. It is eerily common among Scot Nits
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
His posting on Covid compared to yours is like Led Zeppelin vs Spinal Tap.
Thanks v much.
Song Remains the Same = 7.7 IMDb This is Spinal Tap = 7.9 IMDb
Your support is much appreciated.
Yep, they're both good in their own ways. That's exactly how I meant it. All depends what mood you're in.
An example of those foreign types ‘not talking about us’, because they ‘just don’t care’
‘A high profile health expert called for Germany to follow in the UK's footsteps and get rid of Covid rules as part of its own 'Freedom Day'. But the idea has been widely slammed.
Andreas Gassen, the head of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV), said Germany should take inspiration from England and lift Covid restrictions at the end of October.
The UK government removed almost all Covid-19 legal restrictions – such as mandatory mask wearing – in England on July 19th. ‘
I feel like I get the intended point around 'X do not care/give a f*ck about Y' posts, as too much is made of it sometimes and we get carried away if some foreign news source or politician comments, as if it is more interesting if it comes from Le Monde or whatever, but it tends to put me in mind of certain statements during the Brexit negotiations etc around the EU not caring about what we do or say, which just seemed insulting to the EU's intelligence, since they'd be fools to not care about what was happening in one of the biggest countries in Europe, and they're not that stupid.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
But this simply isn’t true. Look at that German number-cruncher I linked below. He’s got hundreds of replies, often comparing Germany with other countries. By far the most common comparison is with the UK. Because we are a large wealthy European country, like them, but we have adopted a strikingly different policy re Covid. So our example is the most interesting to them (as it should be)
For long weeks the UK has been held up as an example of what NOT to do. Don’t open up like the crazy Brits! Mario Draghi did it a fortnight ago in Italy
But now the narrative has changed. Now British cases are falling and deaths haven’t gone mad. Meanwhile a dozen European countries have worse case rates. And through all this the Brits have kept their freedoms? Almost uniquely we haven’t even utilized vaxports. Suddenly we are the new Sweden. A possible model for others
Can you remember the poster who against all the noise and right from the get-go informed the site that vaxports for domestic use in England were a Not Happening Event?
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
But this simply isn’t true. Look at that German number-cruncher I linked below. He’s got hundreds of replies, often comparing Germany with other countries. By far the most common comparison is with the UK. Because we are a large wealthy European country, like them, but we have adopted a strikingly different policy re Covid. So our example is the most interesting to them (as it should be)
For long weeks the UK has been held up as an example of what NOT to do. Don’t open up like the crazy Brits! Mario Draghi did it a fortnight ago in Italy
But now the narrative has changed. Now British cases are falling and deaths haven’t gone mad. Meanwhile a dozen European countries have worse case rates. And through all this the Brits have kept their freedoms? Almost uniquely we haven’t even utilized vaxports. Suddenly we are the new Sweden. A possible model for others
I sense we're about to have another unpleasant surge in the covid nationalism virus. I think we're just going to have to accept that some people are lifelong carriers and live with it.
Or, you are just wrong. You have a personal struggle with admitting error. It is eerily common among Scot Nits
The original exchange into which you lurched was about 'continentals' en masse not individual countries, that was the whole point.
I shall in future try to use your approach to admitting error.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
So if I end up moving before the next (WM) election, there's actually a chance we might end up voting for the same party. You anti-SNP, and me anti-Boris. Probably not going to work out that way, but funny that it's possible.
Politics makes strange bedfellows. Just ask Lindsey Graham!
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
Is it? I'm asking because I'm thinking of the very different dosing approach they took, getting a minority double vaxxed quickly rather than a majority with one shot and then a longer gap to facilitate it. That has two possible implications:
1) Does the shorter gap confer more, or less, immunity over time? Have we seen the studies on that?
2) If it's not relevant, that means their vulnerable groups might actually be slightly ahead of ours in terms of waning protection.
Either way, I would suggest they need a booster programme . Fast.
If they do enter the EU, and when Germany doesn't grant them asylum, how many guesses on where they go next?
Maybe I'm incredibly thick but I didn't think Poland had a border with Greece and Turkey.
I had to stop and think, too; must mean forward deployment to help the Greeks on the border in Thrace (?), between Salonika and Istanbul. Perhaps also the Aegean islands.
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
But as well you know, a good story can override facts to the extent that the truth just wouldn't be believed regardless of the evidence.
Randox paying Tory MPs £00,000s as they got the Covid Travel testing contract could easily be a story that is hard to deny even if it's not the whole picture...
That’s absolutely the truth.
The same with Kate Bingham - the story (crony) overrode the truth (fantastically well qualified and experienced biotech investor) and was the reason she quit
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
That may well be true but I can tell you now that the perception here among voters is that the Tory party gave Randox a licence to rip us off with day 2 tests. That was already damaging, now it transpires that one of their MPs was on the take and worse still the PM personally intervened to protect said MP from being punished for being on the take from the company that rips us all off.
Already I've heard people say that it must have been Randox that came up with this idiotic travel testing system and paid the Tory party to put it in place.
Please buy all your products from CityDoc. They are a client of mine and I’d benefit from increased ebitda
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
If Randox is such a large, well-regarded company and the logical choice for a supplier, why would it need to pay so much money to a backbencher? Randox was paying for something? What was it?
I’ve no idea. But Pfizer spends tens of millions on lobbying
Sold his formr company for around £10m value of his share. Has a hoose in Windsor bought for £4m in 2008. Unencumbered in official records. Will have appreciated. HMRC are after £1.7m.
On the surface of it he could have sold up and downsized to a £2m hoose in the inflated market last year, and dodged 100s of k of Stamp Duty. Like Osborne probably did. And cleared the account.
If they do enter the EU, and when Germany doesn't grant them asylum, how many guesses on where they go next?
Maybe I'm incredibly thick but I didn't think Poland had a border with Greece and Turkey.
I had to stop and think, too; must mean forward deployment to help the Greeks on the border in Thrace (?), between Salonika and Istanbul. Perhaps also the Aegean islands.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
This is absolutely spot on.
Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.
There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.
Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.
So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
I expected Covid measure fatigue a lot sooner, but we almost seem to have gotten to a point where we had two shots, and lots have decided it is just beyond us to push people to get a third.
Rich nations have enough to give people boosters, they've had time for eveyone who could be persuaded to get a first and second shot to have done so (some benig better at this than others), so just go for it hard.
And all throughout this pandemic nations all over, and us the public in fairness, seem to have short memories. Like those people trying to point to EU second dose stats vs the UK as if they had no idea how maths works and that the UK rate woiuld increase massively after 3 months, or own own inability to see what would happen in January this year.
Comical Dave has already doubled down on "look at Eastern Europe", and switched to Death Rates, where it was all about high cases in the UK until very recently. The common element is that he is the EuCo's amateur PR man at the Politico.
I know he's funny for most here, but he is also one of the widest-read agenda setters in EU media / politics. For a decent future EuCo needs a critical media, so you can find it without just looking for the two feet sticking out of UVDL's rear end.
As terrible as the outlook is for the Conservatives I think that this time next year they will look back and be shocked how quckly they got into "little local difficulties". As Adam Affriye well knows, bankruptcy comes in two phases: quite slowly and then irreparably quickly. The steady drip stage may be coming to an end and the deluge beginning. With yet another scandal and possible by-election in Windsor I think we could be getting into "never glad confident morning again" territory.
Comments
Of course in reality few terms max out, but I think mid term has to be pretty broad.
Song Remains the Same = 7.7 IMDb
This is Spinal Tap = 7.9 IMDb
Your support is much appreciated.
There are worriers here too, of course - I have colleagues who still fear to leave the house and will not return to the office (ever? if not now, when?). But they are very much in the minority.
It's the first time for an age I have felt glad to be metropolitan.
That said, this is not a permanent feature. Attitudes 12 months ago were very much the reverse.
@andrew_lilico
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32m
England's struggle to keep cases down continues, with as little success as we've managed these past sixteen days.
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1457776661378654210
Lockdown fanatics now looking at how poorly kids are doing with stuff like reading because, erm, the skools were shut.
Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.
There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.
Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.
So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
I think I'd need to know that to rank countries on how well they've handled it.
And thank you for your sympathy on my lad. It’s been a heck of a time, but he’s born up really well, all things considered.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1457782719081959433
For long weeks the UK has been held up as an example of what NOT to do. Don’t open up like the crazy Brits! Mario Draghi did it a fortnight ago in Italy
But now the narrative has changed. Now British cases are falling and deaths haven’t gone mad. Meanwhile a dozen European countries have worse case rates. And through all this the Brits have kept their freedoms? Almost uniquely we haven’t even utilized vaxports. Suddenly we are the new Sweden. A possible model for others
I just posted the excess death stats. Sweden was 109 (excess deaths per 100,000) while most of non-Scandi Europe was above and Sweden's nearest neighbours well below.
Sweden on excess deaths = top of the pack EU-wide and bottom of the pack Scandi-wide.
Doesn't excess deaths control for all those factors that have been pointed out contribute to Sweden's Covid performance.
Mike doesn't sing much about his bad bets. (He's very good overall though)
Edit: And Mike is better than I am.
Rich nations have enough to give people boosters, they've had time for eveyone who could be persuaded to get a first and second shot to have done so (some benig better at this than others), so just go for it hard.
And all throughout this pandemic nations all over, and us the public in fairness, seem to have short memories. Like those people trying to point to EU second dose stats vs the UK as if they had no idea how maths works and that the UK rate woiuld increase massively after 3 months, or own own inability to see what would happen in January this year.
‘A high profile health expert called for Germany to follow in the UK's footsteps and get rid of Covid rules as part of its own 'Freedom Day'. But the idea has been widely slammed.
Andreas Gassen, the head of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV), said Germany should take inspiration from England and lift Covid restrictions at the end of October.
The UK government removed almost all Covid-19 legal restrictions – such as mandatory mask wearing – in England on July 19th. ‘
https://www.thelocal.de/20210920/should-germany-have-its-own-covid-freedom-day-in-six-weeks/
Sinn Fein could end up with the First Minister but you do wonder if the Norns could be turning a leaf.
https://jackarmstrong.home.blog/2021/11/08/some-thoughts-on-the-latest-ni-opinion-poll-and-its-implications-for-ae22/
"Exclusive: court records show petition filed by HMRC against Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/08/tory-mp-faces-bankruptcy-over-unpaid-taxes-and-may-have-to-step-down-adam-afriyie
Easy to throw away money betting though and it's very hard to know if when you make money it's via skill or luck. (Very, very hard.)
It was me!
I shall in future try to use your approach to admitting error.
1) Does the shorter gap confer more, or less, immunity over time? Have we seen the studies on that?
2) If it's not relevant, that means their vulnerable groups might actually be slightly ahead of ours in terms of waning protection.
Either way, I would suggest they need a booster programme . Fast.
The same with Kate Bingham - the story (crony) overrode the truth (fantastically well qualified and experienced biotech investor) and was the reason she quit
Sold his formr company for around £10m value of his share. Has a hoose in Windsor bought for £4m in 2008. Unencumbered in official records. Will have appreciated. HMRC are after £1.7m.
On the surface of it he could have sold up and downsized to a £2m hoose in the inflated market last year, and dodged 100s of k of Stamp Duty. Like Osborne probably did. And cleared the account.
Hmmm.
Really excellent speech from Sir Kendrick, but it went very partisan quite quickly, and I gave up. Not helped by La Hodge. How did Sir Ted do?
I know he's funny for most here, but he is also one of the widest-read agenda setters in EU media / politics. For a decent future EuCo needs a critical media, so you can find it without just looking for the two feet sticking out of UVDL's rear end.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1457685368447320065
Three cliches for the price of one ;-)