What's also interesting is that the EU are showing just how limited their range of retaliatory measures are. That the only one they can come up with is cancelling the TCA or more border pedantry is extremely telling. There's zero room for the EU to retaliate within the TCA and they know it.
The problem with bluffing is it leaves you next to nowhere to go when you get called.
The problem with bluffing repeatedly is it makes it more likely people can pick up your tells.
What's also interesting is that the EU are showing just how limited their range of retaliatory measures are. That the only one they can come up with is cancelling the TCA or more border pedantry is extremely telling. There's zero room for the EU to retaliate within the TCA and they know it.
They can throw us out/prevent us re-entering Horizon, Copernicus etc
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
"After the 1994 congressional elections, Bill Clinton reoriented his administration to the center and saved his presidency. Mr. Biden should follow his lead, listen to centrists, push back on the left and reorient his policies to address the mounting economic issues people are facing."
"Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema are not outliers in the Democratic Party — they are in fact the very heart of the Democratic Party, given that 53 percent of Democrats classify themselves as moderates or conservative. While Democrats support the Build Back Better initiative, 60 percent of Democrats (and 65 percent of the country) support the efforts of these moderates to rein it in. It’s Mr. Sanders from Vermont and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez from New York who represent areas ideologically far from the mainstream of America."
NYTimes
The" support reigning it in" figure comes from polling i would come close to prepending with "push" when describing it.
Sinena has hemorage support amongst Dems and Independents with her stance that involved at one point going against her campaign promises on Medicaid.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
The Green Party are even more woke than Labour
Maybe you can ask them their thoughts and feelings regarding Tony Blair
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
It's our old friend hubris. Johnson's gotten away with murder so often he thinks he always can. Crank in a somewhat but not completely relevant comparison? Yes ok. Blair. Triumph in NI. The Balkans. Sierra Leone. Britain loves him. America loves him. Everybody loves him except Gordon Brown and Jeremy Corbyn. He gets to thinking his judgment is impeccable and he can persuade anybody of anything. Iraq.
What's also interesting is that the EU are showing just how limited their range of retaliatory measures are. That the only one they can come up with is cancelling the TCA or more border pedantry is extremely telling. There's zero room for the EU to retaliate within the TCA and they know it.
They can throw us out/prevent us re-entering Horizon, Copernicus etc
That would be painful
I think that's true, but at the same time the EU thought they were the only game in town previously and suddenly they were dealing with AUKUS. They're actions are predicated on the UK standing still, which we know won't be the case. The UK has got more top research institutions than the rest of the EU put together, by some distance too. How long would it take for the UK to come up with a new joint scientific research partnership with Australia, Canada, Japan and others? My guess is within a few months and once again the EU finds itself out in the cold. It's self-defeating strategy IMO. They've done it a few times already and not really learned the lesson.
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
What's also interesting is that the EU are showing just how limited their range of retaliatory measures are. That the only one they can come up with is cancelling the TCA or more border pedantry is extremely telling. There's zero room for the EU to retaliate within the TCA and they know it.
They can throw us out/prevent us re-entering Horizon, Copernicus etc
That would be painful
I think that's true, but at the same time the EU thought they were the only game in town previously and suddenly they were dealing with AUKUS. They're actions are predicated on the UK standing still, which we know won't be the case. The UK has got more top research institutions than the rest of the EU put together, by some distance too. How long would it take for the UK to come up with a new joint scientific research partnership with Australia, Canada, Japan and others? My guess is within a few months and once again the EU finds itself out in the cold. It's self-defeating strategy IMO. They've done it a few times already and not really learned the lesson.
What top universities are there in the EU?
The EU may be a red tape "regulatory" superpower in their own minds, but our universities outclass them as do those in the USA, Aus, Canada, Japan and increasingly China and more.
If the EU want to lock the door and close the curtains they can be as insular as they like. But we're not the ones who will be struggling.
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
So it's cutting through. What a relief! If these latest BoJo antics had been shrugged off by the public we'd be in a dark place indeed. The key thing now is for the story not to slide into "what a shower, they're all at it" territory, ie the corrosive notion of MPs generally being "all the same" and "in it for themselves" with "snouts in the trough" etc etc. That helps nobody and neither is it true. Fact is, they're not all at it, Owen Paterson was at it, and he was caught bang to rights by a perfectly good standards & disciplinary system, which Johnson sought to abolish because he fears scrutiny. That's the scandal, and it's about to be burnished by Covid cash and contracts for mates. We need to keep the focus there. Not sleaze, but Tory sleaze, Government sleaze, Johnson sleaze. Where sleaze = mendacity + corruption.
Not sure that - if it really took 18months or more - that it is a good system. Justice delayed is justice denied or whatever the cliche is. But that’s not to suggest Paterson should have been let off.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
But as well you know, a good story can override facts to the extent that the truth just wouldn't be believed regardless of the evidence.
Randox paying Tory MPs £00,000s as they got the Covid Travel testing contract could easily be a story that is hard to deny even if it's not the whole picture...
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
That may well be true but I can tell you now that the perception here among voters is that the Tory party gave Randox a licence to rip us off with day 2 tests. That was already damaging, now it transpires that one of their MPs was on the take and worse still the PM personally intervened to protect said MP from being punished for being on the take from the company that rips us all off.
Already I've heard people say that it must have been Randox that came up with this idiotic travel testing system and paid the Tory party to put it in place.
I see @Philip_Thompson is in full armchair general trade expert mode.
We've had a good four plus years of this now, so the arguments are well worn.
In your mind perhaps
Well, yes. In my mind the endgame of this was always fairly clear: the UK holds all the cards and the EU are bluffing.
It was always the case, the problem was that Robbins and May were not prepared to risk no deal, so the bluff was working.
Since Frost and Boris took over, the table has been turned.
Nothing has changed in four years in the dynamics, except the UK grew a backbone once May was ousted.
You mean Johnson had the "backbone" to deliberately negotiate something to win an election, which he was willing to throw in the fire as soon as he started counting his majority?
I'm not sure how we have all the cards btw. In any future trade war initiated by Johnson the EU will just slap tariffs on, reducing UK trade even more. You think our economy is strong enough?
Obama blaming the rise of nationalism across the world for less global cooperation on the environment at a speech in Scotland couldn’t be more fitting #COP26
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
Also does it discuss the phantom 3rd wave where cases and ICU admission surged to 2nd wave levels but deaths were massively lower? That i woud be interested to read about.
I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).
I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.
I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.
We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI
*this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
No.
The prospect of a trade war between the UK and the EU has edged closer, with Ireland giving the clearest hint yet that Brussels plans to suspend the entire trade deal struck last December if the British government suspends the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.
The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, accused the UK of “deliberately forcing a breakdown” in negotiations over Northern Ireland, adding that there was still time to step back from the brink.
“The trade and cooperation agreement that was agreed between the British government and the EU was contingent on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, which includes the protocol.
“One is contingent on the other, and so if one has been set aside, there is a danger that the other will also be set aside by the EU,” he told RTE on Sunday.
His comments confirm speculation that the EU will not dwell on its options if the UK triggers article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, but will instead deploy measures in the wider Brexit withdrawal agreement that allow cross-retaliation.
The EU would have to serve the UK with 12 months’ notice, but it would have a devastating impact on British business, industry leaders warned. Shane Brennan, head of the Cold Chain Federation, said businesses would be “sacrificed” with “a near prohibition on UK food exports”.
Why would you take what an Irish minister says seriously?
Sounds like you're girding your loins again, Philip, with this Art 16 business, but I fear you'll be disappointed. The bluff - as with No Deal Brexit - is on our side. Johnson/Frost are blowharding. We won't trigger Art 16. It's possible I'm wrong, applying the same logic which worked before to something which no longer suits, but I don't think so. I hope we get a 'yes/no' betfair market on this with 'no' at a backable price in which case I'll be doing it.
The EU were bluffing over governance and their bluff was called and the TCA allows divergence in a way we were told wasn't possible.
The EU were bluffing over NI and their bluff was called and the NI Protocol includes Article 16 and a unilateral exit which we were told wasn't possible.
Since Frost and Boris replaced Robbins and May, the EU's bluffs keep getting called. But if you wish to think that this time will be different, then in the words of Angela Lansbury - be our guest.
Strong powerful country we are, headed by strong powerful men!
Anyway, my prediction is made. We'll see. I could be wrong but it's been a while tbf.
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
If Randox is such a large, well-regarded company and the logical choice for a supplier, why would it need to pay so much money to a backbencher? Randox was paying for something? What was it?
Fascinating and alrming thread by a German dude who has modelled likely Covid outcomes there
I have no firm idea if he is talking sense but he seems well-informed. He reckons Germany is facing a nightmare scenario unless they impose new restrictions very soon AND start vaccinating the refuseniks immediately
"Unrestrained passage would be completed at the end of January, then the virus will no longer find any infectious unvaccinated or vaccinated people. Until then > 250,000 people died. Nobody wants to imagine the situation in the health system with 150,000 hospitalizations per week."
What's also interesting is that the EU are showing just how limited their range of retaliatory measures are. That the only one they can come up with is cancelling the TCA or more border pedantry is extremely telling. There's zero room for the EU to retaliate within the TCA and they know it.
They can throw us out/prevent us re-entering Horizon, Copernicus etc
That would be painful
I think that's true, but at the same time the EU thought they were the only game in town previously and suddenly they were dealing with AUKUS. They're actions are predicated on the UK standing still, which we know won't be the case. The UK has got more top research institutions than the rest of the EU put together, by some distance too. How long would it take for the UK to come up with a new joint scientific research partnership with Australia, Canada, Japan and others? My guess is within a few months and once again the EU finds itself out in the cold. It's self-defeating strategy IMO. They've done it a few times already and not really learned the lesson.
What top universities are there in the EU?
The EU may be a red tape "regulatory" superpower in their own minds, but our universities outclass them as do those in the USA, Aus, Canada, Japan and increasingly China and more.
If the EU want to lock the door and close the curtains they can be as insular as they like. But we're not the ones who will be struggling.
Karolinska, ETH Zurich, I think there's a couple of French ones and an Italian one. The list is pretty small. I'd imagine if the UK founded a globally facing research funding programme that Switzerland would dump Horizon and join up with the UK, it's seen as fairly poor value for money for them.
What's also unremarked is that the UK is paying for about 20% of the horizon programme and has real expertise that can't be replicated. So the decision to not allow us in probably hurts both sides, but the difference will be that we have options. They can't magic up another Imperial or Cambridge and put it in Germany.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
I suspect that was due to Blair being a pseudo tory, and Major cocking up the economy in 1992 threatening interest rates, and all the SLEAZE that was around then.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Even then it was more the lower middle class and skilled working class who went Labour and most of those swing voters are still backing the Tories under Boris as well as plenty of those from the Redwall who voted for Blair and Kinnock in 1992 then but voted for Boris in 2019 being Leavers who wanted Brexit done.
Wealthy upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Twickenham, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 if the Tories lost them, not Labour. They have been joined by the wealthy, graduate filled seat of Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council.
Those wealthy generally Remain areas will more likely go LD or Green than Labour
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Even then it was more the lower middle class and skilled working class who went Labour and most of those swing voters are still backing the Tories under Boris as well as plenty of those who voted for Blair then but voted for Boris in 2019.
Upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 not Labour. They have been joined by wealthy, graduate filled seats like Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council
Cabinet minister Steve Barclay says he wants to "express my regret" and that of other ministers, over the govt's standards plan last week. So is this the real reason @BorisJohnson isn't here? He didn't want to make that apology in person...? https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1457746898236940289
The sheer political incompetence of Patergate is what disturbs me most.
Boris is meant to have decent instincts, a kind of cunning. Completely absent here. He needs much much better advisors (not Carrie) who can stand up to him. He needs a new Dom
Boris has never had decent political instincts - for the past 18 months he's usually left things until only 1 decision remains.
What he used to have were people around him who made the decisions before they got near Boris so he was presented with the final decision to announce. And Boris now seems to have lost those people.
That's what I meant, but possibly phrased it badly. He has good instincts when it comes to hiring, so he often gets good advice. That has stopped
It's our old friend hubris. Johnson's gotten away with murder so often he thinks he always can. Crank in a somewhat but not completely relevant comparison? Yes ok. Blair. Triumph in NI. The Balkans. Sierra Leone. Britain loves him. America loves him. Everybody loves him except Gordon Brown and Jeremy Corbyn. He gets to thinking his judgment is impeccable and he can persuade anybody of anything. Iraq.
Yes, agreed
I don't think Johnson is personally corrupt - as in, a man on the take, trying to siphon off public funds, build a huge platinum castle in Dorset etc etc
That's not his style. He rides a bicycle. Financial gain does not pleasure him.
But he does like to think he can break the rules and he also finds those rules irritating and restricting - "why the F do we have to do this, can't we do it another way". He's constitutionally a rebel and he thinks he can busk his way through anything.
It brings him close to disaster but it can also brings political triumphs. At the moment he is closer to disaster than triumph
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
You needn't have bothered with 2. It isn't that. And I agree 1 is unlikely. So it's 3. Labour are leaking left to the Greens and pulling in from the centre. This is the exact dynamic needed to GTTO at the GE. Things are looking up for SKS and looking just a little bit concerning for MMM.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Even then it was more the lower middle class and skilled working class who went Labour and most of those swing voters are still backing the Tories under Boris as well as plenty of those who voted for Blair then but voted for Boris in 2019.
Upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 not Labour. They have been joined by wealthy, graduate filled seats like Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council
Sunderland has Green councillors
Sunderland also still has a majority of Labour councillors, the Green vote there is mainly from leftwing students and public sector workers, not posh Remain Tories like down South
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Even then it was more the lower middle class and skilled working class who went Labour and most of those swing voters are still backing the Tories under Boris as well as plenty of those who voted for Blair then but voted for Boris in 2019.
Upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 not Labour. They have been joined by wealthy, graduate filled seats like Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council
Sunderland has Green councillors
Used to be the colour used by Labour IIRC. Back in the 50's.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Even then it was more the lower middle class and skilled working class who went Labour and most of those swing voters are still backing the Tories under Boris as well as plenty of those who voted for Blair then but voted for Boris in 2019.
Upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 not Labour. They have been joined by wealthy, graduate filled seats like Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council
Sunderland has Green councillors
Sunderland also still has a majority of Labour councillors, the Green vote there is mainly from leftwing students and public sector workers, not posh Remain Tories like down South
IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.
Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.
The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.
What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
I don’t know anything about Patterson’s conversations
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
If Randox is such a large, well-regarded company and the logical choice for a supplier, why would it need to pay so much money to a backbencher? Randox was paying for something? What was it?
I booked Randox (prior to Patergate, I hasten to add) for my compulsory test on landing from Spain. The instructions were useless. The guidance was wrong. The packaging was near impossible to handle. It was unclear how to return the test. Apart from that, it was excellent in every way.
Fascinating and alrming thread by a German dude who has modelled likely Covid outcomes there
I have no firm idea if he is talking sense but he seems well-informed. He reckons Germany is facing a nightmare scenario unless they impose new restrictions very soon AND start vaccinating the refuseniks immediately
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Labour vote went up by 1.9M in 1997 compared with 1992. It didn't all come from the LibDems whose vote went down by 0.8m. Some must have come from Tories.
But the Tory vote was down by 4.5M from 14.1m in 1992 to 9.6m in 1997. So nearly a third of Tory voters sat on their hands (or voted Labour). I think this is how the Tories will lose the next election. Tory sit-at-homes. Can't bring themselves to vote for this government under Johnson.
Interestingly the Tories have started canvassing in Barnes for the Locals next May. On their leaflet, one of the reasons given for backing the Tories is "We are local residents, not national politicians." They can see the danger of being associated with Johnson's government.
What's also interesting is that the EU are showing just how limited their range of retaliatory measures are. That the only one they can come up with is cancelling the TCA or more border pedantry is extremely telling. There's zero room for the EU to retaliate within the TCA and they know it.
They can throw us out/prevent us re-entering Horizon, Copernicus etc
That would be painful
I think that's true, but at the same time the EU thought they were the only game in town previously and suddenly they were dealing with AUKUS. They're actions are predicated on the UK standing still, which we know won't be the case. The UK has got more top research institutions than the rest of the EU put together, by some distance too. How long would it take for the UK to come up with a new joint scientific research partnership with Australia, Canada, Japan and others? My guess is within a few months and once again the EU finds itself out in the cold. It's self-defeating strategy IMO. They've done it a few times already and not really learned the lesson.
What top universities are there in the EU?
The EU may be a red tape "regulatory" superpower in their own minds, but our universities outclass them as do those in the USA, Aus, Canada, Japan and increasingly China and more.
If the EU want to lock the door and close the curtains they can be as insular as they like. But we're not the ones who will be struggling.
Karolinska, ETH Zurich, I think there's a couple of French ones and an Italian one. The list is pretty small. I'd imagine if the UK founded a globally facing research funding programme that Switzerland would dump Horizon and join up with the UK, it's seen as fairly poor value for money for them.
What's also unremarked is that the UK is paying for about 20% of the horizon programme and has real expertise that can't be replicated. So the decision to not allow us in probably hurts both sides, but the difference will be that we have options. They can't magic up another Imperial or Cambridge and put it in Germany.
Zurich is not in the EU; I am not sure whether Ch is yet back in Horizon, or if they are still defenestrated.
AIUI we are in, as an Associate.
But Brussels is sitting on actually getting things started, using it as a lever on the NIP.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Labour vote went up by 1.9M in 1997 compared with 1992. It didn't all come from the LibDems whose vote went down by 0.8m. Some must have come from Tories.
But the Tory vote was down by 4.5M from 14.1m in 1992 to 9.6m in 1997. So nearly a third of Tory voters sat on their hands (or voted Labour). I think this is how the Tories will lose the next election. Tory sit-at-homes. Can't bring themselves to vote for this government under Johnson.
Interestingly the Tories have started canvassing in Barnes for the Locals next May. On their leaflet, one of the reasons given for backing the Tories is "We are local residents, not national politicians." They can see the danger of being associated with Johnson's government.
Fascinating and alrming thread by a German dude who has modelled likely Covid outcomes there
I have no firm idea if he is talking sense but he seems well-informed. He reckons Germany is facing a nightmare scenario unless they impose new restrictions very soon AND start vaccinating the refuseniks immediately
"In total, there would be around 70,000 deaths after November 1, 2021 and at times over 2 million Long Covid patients."
The Doomsday Szenarien is off the charts
The question is why their already draconian restrictions don't seem to be working compared to, say, England where things aren't so strict.
Do they have draconian restrictions? They don't have widespread vaxports yet, unlike most other European countries.
I presume they are in trouble now because they DID have restrictions for longer, so they are getting the next wave as we go into winter, even as immunity declines from the vaccines, plus they have a lot of vax refusal in certain areas and with old people
"After the 1994 congressional elections, Bill Clinton reoriented his administration to the center and saved his presidency. Mr. Biden should follow his lead, listen to centrists, push back on the left and reorient his policies to address the mounting economic issues people are facing."
"Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema are not outliers in the Democratic Party — they are in fact the very heart of the Democratic Party, given that 53 percent of Democrats classify themselves as moderates or conservative. While Democrats support the Build Back Better initiative, 60 percent of Democrats (and 65 percent of the country) support the efforts of these moderates to rein it in. It’s Mr. Sanders from Vermont and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez from New York who represent areas ideologically far from the mainstream of America."
NYTimes
The" support reigning it in" figure comes from polling i would come close to prepending with "push" when describing it.
Sinena has hemorage support amongst Dems and Independents with her stance that involved at one point going against her campaign promises on Medicaid.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Even then it was more the lower middle class and skilled working class who went Labour and most of those swing voters are still backing the Tories under Boris as well as plenty of those who voted for Blair then but voted for Boris in 2019.
Upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 not Labour. They have been joined by wealthy, graduate filled seats like Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council
Sunderland has Green councillors
Sunderland also still has a majority of Labour councillors, the Green vote there is mainly from leftwing students and public sector workers, not posh Remain Tories like down South
How do you know?
Demographics, compare average house price and income and wage levels in Sunderland to areas with Green councillors in the South.
In the North Green councillors tend to represent wards in university cities, that is not always the case in the South, plenty of London commuter belt wards though have Green councillors
Their numbers for the UK are laughable and the masks/no masks thing just seems really, really outdated given that vaccines exist now and are the first line of defence.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
They voted Tony instead of Tory.
Which in CorbynWorld, meant they voted TraitorScumTory.
Another interesting nugget from today's @IpsosMORI / Standard polling. Sharp rise in those thinking the govt are handling COVID badly. Similar figures to those seen last winter now. Remember it was last October when we had our last Labour lead too.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Even then it was more the lower middle class and skilled working class who went Labour and most of those swing voters are still backing the Tories under Boris as well as plenty of those who voted for Blair then but voted for Boris in 2019.
Upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 not Labour. They have been joined by wealthy, graduate filled seats like Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council
Sunderland has Green councillors
Used to be the colour used by Labour IIRC. Back in the 50's.
Go back far enough and every colour has been used by the Tories at one time or another.
Fascinating and alrming thread by a German dude who has modelled likely Covid outcomes there
I have no firm idea if he is talking sense but he seems well-informed. He reckons Germany is facing a nightmare scenario unless they impose new restrictions very soon AND start vaccinating the refuseniks immediately
"In total, there would be around 70,000 deaths after November 1, 2021 and at times over 2 million Long Covid patients."
The Doomsday Szenarien is off the charts
Blimey! Another 70,000 deaths would put Germany on 1968 deaths per million population. That's almost as bad as the UK's 2074 deaths per million. Presumably he regards the UK as already beyond the doomsday scenario.
Sir K being heard in near silence as he takes on Johnson's corruption.
If Boris does not learn and quickly his mps will and Boris's Premiership ends
If there is one lesson the Tories ought to have cynically learnt from the last 11 years is that getting rid of your leader is very good at wiping the electorate's memory. If Boris goes and, say, a Rishi comes in then Boris and his antics will likely be quickly forgotten. Particularly if the new government is sensible in denouncing anything that went on before was nothing to do with them.
So it's cutting through. What a relief! If these latest BoJo antics had been shrugged off by the public we'd be in a dark place indeed. The key thing now is for the story not to slide into "what a shower, they're all at it" territory, ie the corrosive notion of MPs generally being "all the same" and "in it for themselves" with "snouts in the trough" etc etc. That helps nobody and neither is it true. Fact is, they're not all at it, Owen Paterson was at it, and he was caught bang to rights by a perfectly good standards & disciplinary system, which Johnson sought to abolish because he fears scrutiny. That's the scandal, and it's about to be burnished by Covid cash and contracts for mates. We need to keep the focus there. Not sleaze, but Tory sleaze, Government sleaze, Johnson sleaze. Where sleaze = mendacity + corruption.
Not sure that - if it really took 18months or more - that it is a good system. Justice delayed is justice denied or whatever the cliche is. But that’s not to suggest Paterson should have been let off.
I'm sure it can be improved but you know what I mean - it's hardly unfit for purpose and it's certainly not the main issue here.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
Disagree. All SKS and Labour have to do is convince everyone that they are pragmatic and not ideological apart from a bit more fairness on tax and similar. Any strong impression of identity politics, Tans rights extremism or being Woke and they will blow a golden opportunity.
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
They voted Tony instead of Tory.
Which in CorbynWorld, meant they voted TraitorScumTory.
C1s and C2s voted for Blair in 1997 and DEs voted Labour as they usually do.
However ABs still voted for Major and the only group the Tories have had a swing against them since 1997 in current polls in is ABs.
The posher you are generally the more you dislike Boris, even if you held your nose and voted for him in 2019 to keep Corbyn out
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Sir K being heard in near silence as he takes on Johnson's corruption.
If Boris does not learn and quickly his mps will and Boris's Premiership ends
If there is one lesson the Tories ought to have cynically learnt from the last 11 years is that getting rid of your leader is very good at wiping the electorate's memory. If Boris goes and, say, a Rishi comes in then Boris and his antics will likely be quickly forgotten. Particularly if the new government is sensible in denouncing anything that went on before was nothing to do with them.
Must be more letters in Brady's little drawer than there were this time last week.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
Hmmm, GTTO?
https://www.abbreviations.com/GTTO says: 1. German Transport and Trading Organization? 2. Get the trolls out? 3. Global Technology Transactions Organization?
Ah, no. 2 gives me clue to the intended meaning. Get the Trots out? And thus become electable?
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
You needn't have bothered with 2. It isn't that. And I agree 1 is unlikely. So it's 3. Labour are leaking left to the Greens and pulling in from the centre. This is the exact dynamic needed to GTTO at the GE. Things are looking up for SKS and looking just a little bit concerning for MMM.
I recall, a long while back, when there was a bit of Greengasm - did well in some local elections. Were getting support from some quite unusual quarters too, until the RedGreen politics got highlighted.
Sir K being heard in near silence as he takes on Johnson's corruption.
If Boris does not learn and quickly his mps will and Boris's Premiership ends
If there is one lesson the Tories ought to have cynically learnt from the last 11 years is that getting rid of your leader is very good at wiping the electorate's memory. If Boris goes and, say, a Rishi comes in then Boris and his antics will likely be quickly forgotten. Particularly if the new government is sensible in denouncing anything that went on before was nothing to do with them.
It's a good thing to try, but there are a couple of caveats.
First, that would be the third time in a row that a PM elected at a GE was ditched before the next one (Cameron 2015, May 2017, Johnson 2019). There comes a point where replacing a failing PM transforms into taking the mickey and showing poor judgement by the party.
Second, there's nobody who is both party-acceptable who isn't compromised by working with BoJo.
re the Sweden article (thanks @IanB2). The first comment below the article references its near neighbours. So the fuck what? It seems likely that the outcomes in Sweden are not hugely dissimilar and perhaps better than comparable economies Europe-wide.
Meanwhile children went to school, and things were less dreadful freedom-wise than many other places.
Did they escape unscathed? No they didn't but they protected their flank, as it were, in terms of many for example mental health issues.
I loved this from one of the other comments: "Especially the UK, with its high rates of poverty, widespread social deprivation and a chronically underfunded health service, is not a good comparison."
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
It seems incredible that after a week or so of bad headlines for the Conservatives, they lose 5 points to the Greens whilst Labour are unchanged. Strange times
Because Labour are still uninspiring and the water companies are pumping pure shit into our rivers
Honestly, reading about this pollution brings out MY inner Green and I might vote for them myself. It is hideous. So I can see why others are feeling similar. Also COP of course
A certain type of upper middle class, wealthy and educated moderate Conservative in London or the South could vote LD or Green but would never, ever even consider voting Labour.
Um 1997 called round, offering you it's history book.
Labour vote went up by 1.9M in 1997 compared with 1992. It didn't all come from the LibDems whose vote went down by 0.8m. Some must have come from Tories.
But the Tory vote was down by 4.5M from 14.1m in 1992 to 9.6m in 1997. So nearly a third of Tory voters sat on their hands (or voted Labour). I think this is how the Tories will lose the next election. Tory sit-at-homes. Can't bring themselves to vote for this government under Johnson.
Interestingly the Tories have started canvassing in Barnes for the Locals next May. On their leaflet, one of the reasons given for backing the Tories is "We are local residents, not national politicians." They can see the danger of being associated with Johnson's government.
Local residents = born in a Barnes.
Great place to go canvassing. They never close the door in your face
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
"Satan opposes SNP!" isn't the headline you were looking for
"Unrestrained passage would be completed at the end of January, then the virus will no longer find any infectious unvaccinated or vaccinated people. Until then > 250,000 people died. Nobody wants to imagine the situation in the health system with 150,000 hospitalizations per week."
Have you discovered some sort of algorithm that selects this scary shit especially for you?
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
"Satan opposes SNP!" isn't the headline you were looking for
Well, HYUFD is always telling us how important religion is in politics, so that would see Satan allied to the Church of England.
Edit: across the border, at least, the latter being the Tory Party at prayer and all that.
Sir K being heard in near silence as he takes on Johnson's corruption.
If Boris does not learn and quickly his mps will and Boris's Premiership ends
If there is one lesson the Tories ought to have cynically learnt from the last 11 years is that getting rid of your leader is very good at wiping the electorate's memory. If Boris goes and, say, a Rishi comes in then Boris and his antics will likely be quickly forgotten. Particularly if the new government is sensible in denouncing anything that went on before was nothing to do with them.
It's a good thing to try, but there are a couple of caveats.
First, that would be the third time in a row that a PM elected at a GE was ditched before the next one (Cameron 2015, May 2017, Johnson 2019). There comes a point where replacing a failing PM transforms into taking the mickey and showing poor judgement by the party.
Second, there's nobody who is both party-acceptable who isn't compromised by working with BoJo.
All true but they will pull it off if Labour let them.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
"Satan opposes SNP!" isn't the headline you were looking for
I made my point clear enough. We defeated left-wing nationalism in the 1940s - It's just a shame we have the exact same problem on our island today.
I'm a bit late to this but I have just caught up with the phenomenal rugby talent that is Marcus Smith
So I have spent almost an hour watching highlights on YouTube. The highlight of the highlights might be this near-unbelievable try for Quins against Wasps (voted the Try of the Season). But there are videos like this going back five years to his days as a sixth form prodigy
IFS - higher rate taxpayers can get UC in some cases.
"It is worth emphasising that this means that a worker, at least so long as they are not a member of a two-earner couple, can easily earn well above the average – indeed, even be a higher rate taxpayer – and still receive some UC "
It's simply extraordinary that the taxpayer subsidises landlords of some higher rate taxpayers who have children (And any higher earning single parent UC will be down to mahoosive 'that there London' rents). How on earth have we ended up in that position ?
There's a massive political opening to go after the rentier class. Labour's propaganda on the Left is massively out of date on this with the emphasis on the bosses, but there's potential to create temporary political unity between small business owners and workers on a political project to tilt power and wealth away from rentiers.
The only fly in the ointment is that many of the rentiers are from abroad, the money from China, Russia and the Gulf that funds our current account deficit.
But perhaps Covid has improved that situation and it wouldn't be so economically risky now to go after rentiers.
Fascinating and alrming thread by a German dude who has modelled likely Covid outcomes there
I have no firm idea if he is talking sense but he seems well-informed. He reckons Germany is facing a nightmare scenario unless they impose new restrictions very soon AND start vaccinating the refuseniks immediately
"In total, there would be around 70,000 deaths after November 1, 2021 and at times over 2 million Long Covid patients."
The Doomsday Szenarien is off the charts
Blimey! Another 70,000 deaths would put Germany on 1968 deaths per million population. That's almost as bad as the UK's 2074 deaths per million. Presumably he regards the UK as already beyond the doomsday scenario.
He doesn't reference the UK (tho many of the replies do)
And that's not his Doomsday Szenarien. In the worst case, he thinks Germany will suffer ANOTHER 250,000 deaths and possibly a collapsed health system
I have no idea if he is accurate, and it's worth pointing out a few things. eg He seems to be a bit of a doom-mongerer because in the replies he's got people saying "you predicted apocalypse last time and it never happened". And he's not an expert, as far as I can see, more a number crunching businessman.
Nonetheless it does look a bit hairy for Germany, at this point
I see @Philip_Thompson is in full armchair general trade expert mode.
We've had a good four plus years of this now, so the arguments are well worn.
In your mind perhaps
Well, yes. In my mind the endgame of this was always fairly clear: the UK holds all the cards and the EU are bluffing.
It was always the case, the problem was that Robbins and May were not prepared to risk no deal, so the bluff was working.
Since Frost and Boris took over, the table has been turned.
Nothing has changed in four years in the dynamics, except the UK grew a backbone once May was ousted.
You mean Johnson had the "backbone" to deliberately negotiate something to win an election, which he was willing to throw in the fire as soon as he started counting his majority?
I'm not sure how we have all the cards btw. In any future trade war initiated by Johnson the EU will just slap tariffs on, reducing UK trade even more. You think our economy is strong enough?
Nothing is being thrown on the fire. The EU showed bad faith and refused to implement the agreed Trusted Trader scheme that would have eliminated 98% of NI checks, because of that we're in a position where Article 16 can be invoked. Article 16 of course is a part of the Protocol and not a breach of it.
As for our economy being strong enough, of course it is! But its not necessary anyway because the EU aren't going to do that, they're incapable of doing that. If there's going to be tariffs between the UK and the EU, and if the Protocol gets stripped away due to Article 16, then the EU would need to do tariffs at the EU/UK border in the island of Ireland. That is, a hard border between NI and Eire.
Are the EU going to do that? Are they going to build border posts and have tariffs between NI and the Republic? If not, then its a bluff and they have nothing.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Starmer has fundamental problems with his leadership. But he’s in his element here. Best performance I’ve seen from him.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
"Satan opposes SNP!" isn't the headline you were looking for
I made my point clear enough. We defeated left-wing nationalism in the 1940s - It's just a shame we have the exact same problem on our island today.
'defeated'? I thought the Soviets won, thumpingly.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Starmer has fundamental problems with his leadership. But he’s in his element here. Best performance I’ve seen from him.
On the PM "He is not a serious leader, and the joke isn't funny any more"
Fascinating and alrming thread by a German dude who has modelled likely Covid outcomes there
I have no firm idea if he is talking sense but he seems well-informed. He reckons Germany is facing a nightmare scenario unless they impose new restrictions very soon AND start vaccinating the refuseniks immediately
"In total, there would be around 70,000 deaths after November 1, 2021 and at times over 2 million Long Covid patients."
The Doomsday Szenarien is off the charts
A friend of ours is German, and her dad is currently in hospital after a serious health issue. She, and even his wife, are not allowed to visit due to Covid.
She is exceptionally withering about fools who don't get vaccinated.
(Incidentally, Nicky Campbell had an interesting interview this morning with a woman who refused to get vaxxed, and has lost her job in a care home as a result.)
Comments
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-auckland-moves-to-level-32-tomorrow-night-far-north-to-level-2-on-thursday-more-freedoms-likely-from-nov-29/MJM3R5B4QPQVDD47NNUY62M33A/
The problem with bluffing repeatedly is it makes it more likely people can pick up your tells.
That would be painful
Sinena has hemorage support amongst Dems and Independents with her stance that involved at one point going against her campaign promises on Medicaid.
Nice meeting you last week btw
It was always the case, the problem was that Robbins and May were not prepared to risk no deal, so the bluff was working.
Since Frost and Boris took over, the table has been turned.
Nothing has changed in four years in the dynamics, except the UK grew a backbone once May was ousted.
But Randox is a large and very well regarded UK Dx company. They were a very logical choice for a supplier. And there was no ducking way you could run a full ordinary course tender process in the middle of a pandemic. You needed stuff and you needed it fast.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics
(b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else
And
(c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
The EU may be a red tape "regulatory" superpower in their own minds, but our universities outclass them as do those in the USA, Aus, Canada, Japan and increasingly China and more.
If the EU want to lock the door and close the curtains they can be as insular as they like. But we're not the ones who will be struggling.
Randox paying Tory MPs £00,000s as they got the Covid Travel testing contract could easily be a story that is hard to deny even if it's not the whole picture...
Already I've heard people say that it must have been Randox that came up with this idiotic travel testing system and paid the Tory party to put it in place.
I'm not sure how we have all the cards btw. In any future trade war initiated by Johnson the EU will just slap tariffs on, reducing UK trade even more. You think our economy is strong enough?
https://twitter.com/ryancapperauld/status/1457744677340393476?s=20
Anyway, my prediction is made. We'll see. I could be wrong but it's been a while tbf.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-59135689
The opposition benches are packed, but there's not many MPs on the Tory benches - looks like they've voted with their feet. I wonder why?
I have no firm idea if he is talking sense but he seems well-informed. He reckons Germany is facing a nightmare scenario unless they impose new restrictions very soon AND start vaccinating the refuseniks immediately
https://twitter.com/dpaessler/status/1457447483332874244?s=20
One of his mid-range scenarios:
"In total, there would be around 70,000 deaths after November 1, 2021 and at times over 2 million Long Covid patients."
The Doomsday Szenarien is off the charts
"Unrestrained passage would be completed at the end of January, then the virus will no longer find any infectious unvaccinated or vaccinated people. Until then > 250,000 people died. Nobody wants to imagine the situation in the health system with 150,000 hospitalizations per week."
What's also unremarked is that the UK is paying for about 20% of the horizon programme and has real expertise that can't be replicated. So the decision to not allow us in probably hurts both sides, but the difference will be that we have options. They can't magic up another Imperial or Cambridge and put it in Germany.
i wonder if people care about sleaze anymore...
Wealthy upper middle class areas like Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Kingston Upon Thames, Twickenham, Harrogate, Bath, Lewes, Winchester etc went LD in 1997 if the Tories lost them, not Labour. They have been joined by the wealthy, graduate filled seat of Brighton Pavilion which voted for Cameron in 2010 but now has a Green MP. Here in Epping Forest wealthy Buckhurst Hill has 2 Green district councillors and a Green Parish Council.
Those wealthy generally Remain areas will more likely go LD or Green than Labour
So is this the real reason @BorisJohnson isn't here? He didn't want to make that apology in person...?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1457746898236940289
I don't think Johnson is personally corrupt - as in, a man on the take, trying to siphon off public funds, build a huge platinum castle in Dorset etc etc
That's not his style. He rides a bicycle. Financial gain does not pleasure him.
But he does like to think he can break the rules and he also finds those rules irritating and restricting - "why the F do we have to do this, can't we do it another way". He's constitutionally a rebel and he thinks he can busk his way through anything.
It brings him close to disaster but it can also brings political triumphs. At the moment he is closer to disaster than triumph
"Jacinda Ardern has raised the alert level nationwide, leading to the closure of all of New Zealand's schools and both of its pubs."
It's Paterson. One T.
Pour A Tempranillo, Eat Reblochon, Says Owen Nightly.
But the Tory vote was down by 4.5M from 14.1m in 1992 to 9.6m in 1997. So nearly a third of Tory voters sat on their hands (or voted Labour). I think this is how the Tories will lose the next election. Tory sit-at-homes. Can't bring themselves to vote for this government under Johnson.
Interestingly the Tories have started canvassing in Barnes for the Locals next May. On their leaflet, one of the reasons given for backing the Tories is "We are local residents, not national politicians." They can see the danger of being associated with Johnson's government.
eg Poland
https://covid19.healthdata.org/poland?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend
Projected 190,000 deaths by March 1, 2022
AIUI we are in, as an Associate.
But Brussels is sitting on actually getting things started, using it as a lever on the NIP.
https://www.ukri.org/our-work/collaborating-internationally/working-on-eu-funded-projects/
https://sciencebusiness.net/news/anxiety-grows-over-lengthening-delay-formalising-uk-membership-horizon-europe
I presume they are in trouble now because they DID have restrictions for longer, so they are getting the next wave as we go into winter, even as immunity declines from the vaccines, plus they have a lot of vax refusal in certain areas and with old people
In the North Green councillors tend to represent wards in university cities, that is not always the case in the South, plenty of London commuter belt wards though have Green councillors
Which in CorbynWorld, meant they voted TraitorScumTory.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1457749101710299137?s=20
Transferring half the Green vote to Labour puts the Tories 30 short of an overall majority.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38.6&LAB=35.4&LIB=8.8&Reform=2.6&Green=6.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
However ABs still voted for Major and the only group the Tories have had a swing against them since 1997 in current polls in is ABs.
The posher you are generally the more you dislike Boris, even if you held your nose and voted for him in 2019 to keep Corbyn out
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
https://www.abbreviations.com/GTTO says:
1. German Transport and Trading Organization?
2. Get the trolls out?
3. Global Technology Transactions Organization?
Ah, no. 2 gives me clue to the intended meaning. Get the Trots out? And thus become electable?
Think this was back in New Labour times?
First, that would be the third time in a row that a PM elected at a GE was ditched before the next one (Cameron 2015, May 2017, Johnson 2019). There comes a point where replacing a failing PM transforms into taking the mickey and showing poor judgement by the party.
Second, there's nobody who is both party-acceptable who isn't compromised by working with BoJo.
Meanwhile children went to school, and things were less dreadful freedom-wise than many other places.
Did they escape unscathed? No they didn't but they protected their flank, as it were, in terms of many for example mental health issues.
I loved this from one of the other comments: "Especially the UK, with its high rates of poverty, widespread social deprivation and a chronically underfunded health service, is not a good comparison."
Edit: across the border, at least, the latter being the Tory Party at prayer and all that.
The only fly in the ointment is that many of the rentiers are from abroad, the money from China, Russia and the Gulf that funds our current account deficit.
But perhaps Covid has improved that situation and it wouldn't be so economically risky now to go after rentiers.
And that's not his Doomsday Szenarien. In the worst case, he thinks Germany will suffer ANOTHER 250,000 deaths and possibly a collapsed health system
I have no idea if he is accurate, and it's worth pointing out a few things. eg He seems to be a bit of a doom-mongerer because in the replies he's got people saying "you predicted apocalypse last time and it never happened". And he's not an expert, as far as I can see, more a number crunching businessman.
Nonetheless it does look a bit hairy for Germany, at this point
https://twitter.com/dpaessler/status/1456939412445704192?s=20
As for our economy being strong enough, of course it is! But its not necessary anyway because the EU aren't going to do that, they're incapable of doing that. If there's going to be tariffs between the UK and the EU, and if the Protocol gets stripped away due to Article 16, then the EU would need to do tariffs at the EU/UK border in the island of Ireland. That is, a hard border between NI and Eire.
Are the EU going to do that? Are they going to build border posts and have tariffs between NI and the Republic? If not, then its a bluff and they have nothing.
@DPJHodges
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4m
Starmer has fundamental problems with his leadership. But he’s in his element here. Best performance I’ve seen from him.
Ends Starmer.
Conservative lead by 1 down from 5
She is exceptionally withering about fools who don't get vaccinated.
(Incidentally, Nicky Campbell had an interesting interview this morning with a woman who refused to get vaxxed, and has lost her job in a care home as a result.)
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
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1m
New Lowest Westminster Voting Intention for Conservatives post 2019 GE.
Full Results (8 Nov):
Conservative 37% (-3)
Labour 36% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
Green 6% (–)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 5% (+2)
Other 1% (-1)