Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
LA County has just implemented a Vaxport. You basically can't go into any communal indoor space without proof of vaccination anymore. This is on top of existing mandates for things like schools.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
My guess is it will make very little difference.
From what I can tell most Green voters in recent opinion polls are young, liberal, metropolitan types. I think they would be concentrated in seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Central, Streatham, etc. Labour could lose 10,000 votes to the Greens in each of those seats and the only effect would be to improve their vote distribution.
So if the Greens are high in the polls then I'd expect Labour to outperform UNS, but these Green voters aren't really going to help them in the seats that they've lost to the Tories in recent general elections.
I haven’t seen the poll tans but three scenarios off the top of my head.
First, the poll is shite. The idea that Greens would switch directly from the Tories makes no sense. Possible but unlikely and the poll fits in with other Con scores.
Second, Con voters have switched to the Greens but mainly a cause of both the Paterson issue and the relentless COP26 coverage and related articles. I’d imagine these would be wealthier Tories (mainly who votes Remain) in traditional, HC Con seats. This is actually quite positive for BJ as (1) he can put out some Green policies to win them back (2) they will probably head back to the Tories when things die down and (3) they split the opposition in seats where the LD is second. Conversely, this would be bad for the LDs for obvious reasons.
Third, it’s the iceberg effect where the overall score is hiding a big shift of Labour urban professional voters moving to the Greens but compensated with Red Wall voters switching from Tory to Labour. Obviously the best for Labour and most problematic for BJ.
Take your pick.
You needn't have bothered with 2. It isn't that. And I agree 1 is unlikely. So it's 3. Labour are leaking left to the Greens and pulling in from the centre. This is the exact dynamic needed to GTTO at the GE. Things are looking up for SKS and looking just a little bit concerning for MMM.
I recall, a long while back, when there was a bit of Greengasm - did well in some local elections. Were getting support from some quite unusual quarters too, until the RedGreen politics got highlighted.
Think this was back in New Labour times?
Must have been, yes. Few can be aware these days that the Greens are proper Left.
Speaking of which, the Greens, that reminds me, your party piece, "The Green Belt is Institutionally Racist".
There's a flaw. Or at least there might be. The Green Belt isn't really an Institution, is it? Didn't anyone raise that point?
The instructor on the course actually said that the "Institutionally" part means any organised social structure - so the Green Belt, which is legally enforced, codified in law etc would qualify.
Ah, I see. Well we must see the full argument from you then one day. We can then assess whether it works as satire - your intention - or whether, oh gosh, the Green Belt, which by extension means middle England, IS institutionally racist.
Post bar edit to my post you're replying to - I did, of course, mean to say that these days few can be UNaware that the Green Party is proper Left!
Bryant suggesting that Parliament debates tomorrow a motion to rescind the earlier motion, approves the Standards Committee report, and then simply notes that Paterson is no longer an MP.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Why compare Sweden with us? Sweden is a Nordic country, with a similar climate, population density, level of single-occupancy of homes, and culture to its immediate neighbours.
I wouldn't compare it with Vietnam, or Brazil, or India.
(Warning - conclusion is that we'd have doubled our deaths by going the Sweden route)
I would compare Sweden with all European countries, not just its immediate neighbours.
Nope because then you are introducing far more variables as Andy Cooke mentions. He is absolutely right that the best way to judge how well they did is to compare them with their immediate Scandinavian neighbours and by that measure they did extremely badly - which as it happens is also what we were saying a year ago when this argument was raging.
re the Sweden article (thanks @IanB2). The first comment below the article references its near neighbours. So the fuck what? It seems likely that the outcomes in Sweden are not hugely dissimilar and perhaps better than comparable economies Europe-wide.
Meanwhile children went to school, and things were less dreadful freedom-wise than many other places.
Did they escape unscathed? No they didn't but they protected their flank, as it were, in terms of many for example mental health issues.
I loved this from one of the other comments: "Especially the UK, with its high rates of poverty, widespread social deprivation and a chronically underfunded health service, is not a good comparison."
They made a choice, with - I think - eyes reasonably wide open as to the cost and benefits. Not a wrong choice and not necessarily a right choice, but a different choice. It didn't end in disaster for them. It ended (will end, when it's all over) in more deaths than they may otherwise have had, but also avoided some of the downsides of restrictions elsewhere.
Could we have done the same? Maybe, but I'm not convinced. It got pretty hairy for us a couple of times and I don't know whether we could have got through without health service collapse with softer restrictions. We have more areas of high density than Sweden and I would guess (haven't checked) a less resilient health service in terms of share of peak capacity normally used.
Was it the right choice for Sweden? Maybe, depends on personal values and circumstances. Would it have been the right choice for us? I think it would not, on balance, the costs would have been too high, here. But again it's personal values and there are uncertainties. Epidemiologially speaking, it's a shame that a more comparable country to us didn't take a Swedish approach. Morally speaking, we should perhaps be glad that none did.
For me the cost of our response to Covid is only partially in the explicit death figures right now. We will be paying a high price for the way our health service in effect closed down to everything bar Covid (which, wrt care homes) was certainly not cost-free either.
To take that example we saw the pictures from Northern Italy, panicked (fair enough) and booted out people to die in their hundreds if not thousands in care homes. Was that a good choice vs keeping people in hospital and trying to manage the capacity issues? Not sure. Was there another option? We nibbled at the Nightingale hospitals but perhaps that's where the people ejected to care homes should have gone rather than the Covid patients (what was the utilisation in the end).
Plus we then and now have the ticking time bomb of delayed treatments and mental health issues. That will play out over the next few months and years.
"Would it have been the right choice for us?" I think it might have been, on balance.
I agree with those points.
Really, I think it comes down (for me) to whether we'd have seen health system carnage if we'd "done a Sweden".
If we would, then we'd have surely had the lockdown in the end anyway, just a few weeks later (so all or at least most the associated costs of that) combined with a shell-schocked health service, so the same or worse delays in treatments, mass burnout, possibly much higher health service staff deaths.
If we would have scraped through, then it becomes very interesting, doesn't it? The extra deaths traded against less school disruption, less routine treatment delays, better mental health. Hard to say and differs from person to person. Sweden much better if your business didn't go under or your cancer got diagnosed to treat; much worse if your gran, dad or brother died.
I'm not even sure how you could measure it overall, in a way that would carry majority agreement.
I think we would not have scraped through so it becomes quite an easy call for me. If I became convinced that we could have scraped through. Well, as I said, interesting. I'd maybe say the Sweden way was better.
It's unlikely we'd have scraped through given the NHS nearly collapsed - arguably did in places - even with the lockdown.
Bryant suggesting that Parliament debates tomorrow a motion to rescind the earlier motion, approves the Standards Committee report, and then simply notes that Paterson is no longer an MP.
Seems sensible but why debate rather than just vote on it
Davey under the microscope by the BBC as he has a lobbying job
Isn't that something not do with his disabled son?
The point the BBC were making is that he is a paid lobbyists and the practice should be outlawed
The BBC do seem to have their heads well down at the moment if any criticism of the Government is involved. As opposed to looking for problems elsewhere.
I listened to the interview and the questions were fair and I did not see political bias
Can't find a report of it. I must say I'm becoming suspicious of the BBC's pro-~Government bias, so that's what led me to the post.
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
I'm not sure they will, even if they do have a nasty surge going on. Look at a country like Slovenia. It has the highest cases per million in the world, and a terribly strained health system, yet the government won't lockdown, because they think the economic and other pains of lockdown are WORSE. Resistance to more lockdowns is quite fierce, everywhere
Meanwhile, Ireland is worth noting. It's Covid problem has nudged up in recent days, and now has more cases per capita than the UK
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
You and the other members of the "tribe" are trying to shout out people you do not agree with. . It wont work.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
I don't understand the objection here. You've already accepted breaking down the comparisons makes sense eg developed western countries. Is there something about breaking it down further which renders the info useless? Its possible, but I've not seen why a Scandinavia view is not reasonable too.
It's perfectly reasonable. I love it. It's fantastic.
Davey under the microscope by the BBC as he has a lobbying job
Isn't that something not do with his disabled son?
The point the BBC were making is that he is a paid lobbyists and the practice should be outlawed
The BBC do seem to have their heads well down at the moment if any criticism of the Government is involved. As opposed to looking for problems elsewhere.
I listened to the interview and the questions were fair and I did not see political bias
Can't find a report of it. I must say I'm becoming suspicious of the BBC's pro-~Government bias, so that's what led me to the post.
I have to say that they seem reasonable balanced in contrast to Sky who are very obviously on the left
Davey under the microscope by the BBC as he has a lobbying job
Isn't that something not do with his disabled son?
The point the BBC were making is that he is a paid lobbyists and the practice should be outlawed
The BBC do seem to have their heads well down at the moment if any criticism of the Government is involved. As opposed to looking for problems elsewhere.
I listened to the interview and the questions were fair and I did not see political bias
Can't find a report of it. I must say I'm becoming suspicious of the BBC's pro-~Government bias, so that's what led me to the post.
Isn't that just "balance", or would you rather it were not reported that there are lobbyists in other parties?
"Tories show contempt" is today's large banner headline. The Mail is absolutely raging, and most of its readers are too.
MPs rage at Boris Johnson accusing him of behaving like PUTIN with Starmer blasting 'corruption' and the Speaker urging him NOT to undermine sleaze watchdog - but PM ducks Commons showdown and fewer than 50 Tory MPs show up as polls show slump
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
If the average person lives in a home with one other person on average, or with three people on average, don't you think that might have an impact on spread?
That time at home being when, ummm..., people aren't social distancing at all.
Yes I imagine it does have an impact. So control for it all. Knock yourself out. And let me know the EU28 "scoreboard".
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Oh. OK. Sweden did really really badly with its Covid response.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
"Tories show contempt" is today's large banner headline. The Mail is absolutely raging, and most of its readers are too.
MPs rage at Boris Johnson accusing him of behaving like PUTIN with Starmer blasting 'corruption' and the Speaker urging him NOT to undermine sleaze watchdog - but PM ducks Commons showdown and fewer than 50 Tory MPs show up as polls show slump
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Oh. OK. Sweden did really really badly with its Covid response.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
No, that's literally not what anyone arguing with you is saying.
You are covering every angle of bad faith arguing here in an impressive way.
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
Based on the latest news about the incoming coalition government's views on covid restictions, it doesn't sound like they're going to be proactive enough to stop a big wave of infections. They're just talking about bringing back free testing and vaccine mandates for workplaces, but nothing in the immediate term.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Oh. OK. Sweden did really really badly with its Covid response.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
Um No. You are trying to conflate two different arguments there to distract from your rather silly opinions on Sweden. The UK did very badly in many ways (and well in a few) and I have long maintained that Johnson should be out on his ear for some of the decisions he made. But if you want to look at countries that did well for comparison then picking Sweden is a very bad idea. They should have done very well given the advantages they had - as shown by Finland and Norway and even Denmark. But as it was they squandered those advantages through pursuing the wrong policy and sadly the evidence is all there for people to see in the results.
We could have done far worse than we did - most particularly if we had followed the Swedish lead. As it was we managed to do pretty badly all on our own.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
The fake COVID fakery infected the fake people who faked going to hospitals and faked dying.
Sensible People (TM) went to the gym, had hot broth and goat worming pills with a shot of JIF. And were fine.
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
Based on the latest news about the incoming coalition government's views on covid restictions, it doesn't sound like they're going to be proactive enough to stop a big wave of infections. They're just talking about bringing back free testing and vaccine mandates for workplaces, but nothing in the immediate term.
The Greek government is also adamant that it won't reintroduce lockdown, the economic and social damage is too high
Continental/EU countries will do vaxports and mask mandates but no "lockdown", and they will try and brave it through the winter - is what I predict. Good luck to them, they might need it. As might we all, of course
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
You and the other members of the "tribe" are trying to shout out people you do not agree with. . It wont work.
England still showing huge week on week falls in case numbers.
Yes, and by now one would expect school cases to be showing up, especially in the Sunday LFTs.
It’s extremely encouraging. The hypothesis that secondary school-aged children have hit herd immunity is looking stronger by the day.
That was always the key cohort because it's always been a reservoir of potential hosts for the virus even as 90% of adults have been vaccinated to enough of a degree to make us sub-standard or unviable hosts.
I really don't understand why any country continued to pursue an eradication strategy beyond the point where vaccines became readily available. The won't vaccinate cohort were always going to end up catching it, better for them to get it in the summer when initial viral load is likely to be lower and hospitals much less busy.
England still showing huge week on week falls in case numbers.
Yes, and by now one would expect school cases to be showing up, especially in the Sunday LFTs.
Exactly. I declare Victory over Covid day. This time for real not like at the start of Spetember where the cases explosion in school children was inexplicably delayed by a week and a bit making me look like a right dick.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Bryant suggesting that Parliament debates tomorrow a motion to rescind the earlier motion, approves the Standards Committee report, and then simply notes that Paterson is no longer an MP.
Seems sensible but why debate rather than just vote on it
I don't think you are allowed to just have a vote on something without it being timetabled as such with the necessary debate before hand.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
Bryant suggesting that Parliament debates tomorrow a motion to rescind the earlier motion, approves the Standards Committee report, and then simply notes that Paterson is no longer an MP.
Seems sensible but why debate rather than just vote on it
I don't think you are allowed to just have a vote on something without it being timetabled as such with the necessary debate before hand.
Certainly it has to be moved and seconded, and then there's an expectation that the party spokespeople get to set out their respective positions, the relevant minister gets to respond, and some members (if any) who are opposed get to speak. Hey presto, there's a debate.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
I regret to inform you that BT Sport have confirmed they have the rights to this winter's Ashes and for Australian home international cricket until 2025.
Because of Covid-19 they are likely to end up using the host commentators, and they make the Indian commentators sound fair and impartial.
Is TMS still going to be on the radio? Thats all that really matters to me for cricket and the media. The rest can go swim.
Not been officially confirmed but by the looks of it the BBC are taking the Aussie radio commentary but with Jonathan Agnew being part of their commentary team.
(Quite a few TMS regulars have said they aren't going to Australia this winter.)
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
To a degree that makes sense, but you have to be careful not to cross over into untruths when trying to encourage even something positive, or you will just undermine future messages. That happens with many causes when people go too extreme.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Oh. OK. Sweden did really really badly with its Covid response.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
Um No. You are trying to conflate two different arguments there to distract from your rather silly opinions on Sweden. The UK did very badly in many ways (and well in a few) and I have long maintained that Johnson should be out on his ear for some of the decisions he made. But if you want to look at countries that did well for comparison then picking Sweden is a very bad idea. They should have done very well given the advantages they had - as shown by Finland and Norway and even Denmark. But as it was they squandered those advantages through pursuing the wrong policy and sadly the evidence is all there for people to see in the results.
We could have done far worse than we did - most particularly if we had followed the Swedish lead. As it was we managed to do pretty badly all on our own.
Fine, there were special situations, single households, you name it and they actually ballsed it up. I realise that now.
This whole discussion started when I wondered, idly, what Sweden looked like vs the whole of Europe actually the answer is in the article, if it is true.
And then everyone went beserk saying how you couldn't compare it and the three other Scandi countries were the only comparators at all possible to compare Sweden with. Perhaps they are right.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
To a degree that makes sense, but you have to be careful not to cross over into untruths when trying to encourage even something positive, or you will just undermine future messages. That happens with many causes when people go too extreme.
Indeed.. I'm off to row. Will post the graphs later....
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
Just checked Wiki - Con got my constituency in 2017 and clear second in 2019 so I will in all likely hood be voting Con.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
So if I end up moving before the next (WM) election, there's actually a chance we might end up voting for the same party. You anti-SNP, and me anti-Boris. Probably not going to work out that way, but funny that it's possible.
It's unlikely - (see my latest post) but the logic here is fine.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
The juxtaposition with "cases rising" being headline news for weeks certainly is striking. The falls over the last 2 weeks really have been meaningful and yet there's been next to nothing.
Where it'll become impossible to ignore is if we get cases <20,000 per day, as that's where "lowest cases since June" type stories can start.
("Lowest cases since May" is a much longer shot as it requires < 3,000 per day!)
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Oh. OK. Sweden did really really badly with its Covid response.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
Um No. You are trying to conflate two different arguments there to distract from your rather silly opinions on Sweden. The UK did very badly in many ways (and well in a few) and I have long maintained that Johnson should be out on his ear for some of the decisions he made. But if you want to look at countries that did well for comparison then picking Sweden is a very bad idea. They should have done very well given the advantages they had - as shown by Finland and Norway and even Denmark. But as it was they squandered those advantages through pursuing the wrong policy and sadly the evidence is all there for people to see in the results.
We could have done far worse than we did - most particularly if we had followed the Swedish lead. As it was we managed to do pretty badly all on our own.
Fine, there were special situations, single households, you name it and they actually ballsed it up. I realise that now.
This whole discussion started when I wondered, idly, what Sweden looked like vs the whole of Europe actually the answer is in the article, if it is true.
And then everyone went beserk saying how you couldn't compare it and the three other Scandi countries were the only comparators at all possible to compare Sweden with. Perhaps they are right.
But sounds not 100% right to me.
Excess mortality for whole of 2020 is very obviously a deeply suspicious measure given that noone in Europe was dying of covid in any numbers till March.
You'd be folding in a good deal of the 2019-20 Flu deaths into your count which would be a huge confounding variable.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
To a degree that makes sense, but you have to be careful not to cross over into untruths when trying to encourage even something positive, or you will just undermine future messages. That happens with many causes when people go too extreme.
It's not easy, but - to my mind - HMG is actually handling the messaging quite well at the moment. A judicious mix of cautious optimism, with some bad cop threats at the same time. We are doing OK, let's not ruin it, get the bloody jab.
The booster campaign is also good. And the government has bravely committed to keeping nearly all our freedoms even through the turbulence of the Autumn, and rising cases, when many were sincerely crying out for lockdowns. eg Kir Royale Starmer
It is ironic that, just as the government shows basic and notable competence in regard to the biggest issue of the day - the Plague - it completely fucks up over some relatively trivial issue - Patergate - and dives in the polls thereby
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Oh. OK. Sweden did really really badly with its Covid response.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
Um No. You are trying to conflate two different arguments there to distract from your rather silly opinions on Sweden. The UK did very badly in many ways (and well in a few) and I have long maintained that Johnson should be out on his ear for some of the decisions he made. But if you want to look at countries that did well for comparison then picking Sweden is a very bad idea. They should have done very well given the advantages they had - as shown by Finland and Norway and even Denmark. But as it was they squandered those advantages through pursuing the wrong policy and sadly the evidence is all there for people to see in the results.
We could have done far worse than we did - most particularly if we had followed the Swedish lead. As it was we managed to do pretty badly all on our own.
Fine, there were special situations, single households, you name it and they actually ballsed it up. I realise that now.
This whole discussion started when I wondered, idly, what Sweden looked like vs the whole of Europe actually the answer is in the article, if it is true.
And then everyone went beserk saying how you couldn't compare it and the three other Scandi countries were the only comparators at all possible to compare Sweden with. Perhaps they are right.
But sounds not 100% right to me.
Excess mortality for whole of 2020 is very obviously a deeply suspicious measure given that noone in Europe was dying of covid in any numbers till March.
You'd be folding in a good deal of the 2019-20 Flu deaths into your count which would be a huge confounding variable.
"Deeply suspicious". The thing is excess mortality is just that. Very difficult to game it but I'm sure you're right that there are very valid reasons why it is completely the wrong metric to use over the wrong time period. Let's try to find some better figures.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
The juxtaposition with "cases rising" being headline news for weeks certainly is striking. The falls over the last 2 weeks really have been meaningful and yet there's been next to nothing.
Where it'll become impossible to ignore is if we get cases 20,000 per day, as that's where "lowest cases since June" type stories can start.
("Lowest cases since May" is a much longer shot as it requires < 3,000 per day!)
Yes, I think there will also be a pretty rapid drop in the death rate as well because of the booster programme. It becomes difficult to ignore about two weeks from now IMO, cases under 20k and deaths in the low tens per day. 10m mostly older people will near 100% efficacy against death from COVID in two weeks. In four weeks it will be 15m and by Christmas around 25m.
It's almost a repeat of January this year, just the right side of Christmas.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
Lol. Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns. Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument. Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.
(a) Sweden had a much worse experience than its near neighbors with similar demographics (b) that Sweden actually did end up with very similar policies to everywhere else And (c) that most Swedes feel their covid response was a relative failure
I doubt it.
Most of the Sweden discourse is:
- I don't like restrictions. - I wish we'd never had them. - Someone said that Sweden had no restrictions, they lived normally, and they were fine. - I want to believe that so I'll believe it.
They ignore Tegnell, who should know fairly well, when he said, “I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behaviour enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighbouring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
They ignore that the neighbouring countries, as well as doing far better in terms of deaths, and ranging from no worse than Sweden to far better in terms of economic impact, ended up under lower levels of restrictions (and thus greater freedoms) for the bulk of the time.
But someone somewhere says something that could come across as "Sweden was unaffected" and they're all over it because they're so desperate to believe it would all have been fine - despite the evidence of their own senses and our own experience (in a country vastly more different from Sweden than its immediate neighbours)
Why compare Sweden only with its neighbours? Can we see those charts for the EU27/28 for example. And chuck in the US while you're at it.
TIA
Yes, let us compare Sweden with Botswana.
The truth will out.
Sweden banned flights from outside the EU whilst we were still accepting passengers from around the world.
Let's compare it with other developed western countries. Crazy as I appreciate that sounds.
You do accept that it did massively worse than its neighbours on almost all conceivable measure right?
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Oh. OK. Sweden did really really badly with its Covid response.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
Um No. You are trying to conflate two different arguments there to distract from your rather silly opinions on Sweden. The UK did very badly in many ways (and well in a few) and I have long maintained that Johnson should be out on his ear for some of the decisions he made. But if you want to look at countries that did well for comparison then picking Sweden is a very bad idea. They should have done very well given the advantages they had - as shown by Finland and Norway and even Denmark. But as it was they squandered those advantages through pursuing the wrong policy and sadly the evidence is all there for people to see in the results.
We could have done far worse than we did - most particularly if we had followed the Swedish lead. As it was we managed to do pretty badly all on our own.
Fine, there were special situations, single households, you name it and they actually ballsed it up. I realise that now.
This whole discussion started when I wondered, idly, what Sweden looked like vs the whole of Europe actually the answer is in the article, if it is true.
And then everyone went beserk saying how you couldn't compare it and the three other Scandi countries were the only comparators at all possible to compare Sweden with. Perhaps they are right.
But sounds not 100% right to me.
Excess mortality for whole of 2020 is very obviously a deeply suspicious measure given that noone in Europe was dying of covid in any numbers till March.
You'd be folding in a good deal of the 2019-20 Flu deaths into your count which would be a huge confounding variable.
England still showing huge week on week falls in case numbers.
Yes, and by now one would expect school cases to be showing up, especially in the Sunday LFTs.
It’s extremely encouraging. The hypothesis that secondary school-aged children have hit herd immunity is looking stronger by the day.
That was always the key cohort because it's always been a reservoir of potential hosts for the virus even as 90% of adults have been vaccinated to enough of a degree to make us sub-standard or unviable hosts.
I really don't understand why any country continued to pursue an eradication strategy beyond the point where vaccines became readily available. The won't vaccinate cohort were always going to end up catching it, better for them to get it in the summer when initial viral load is likely to be lower and hospitals much less busy.
All true. And an eradication strategy was not feasible, anyway.
The only potential further reservoir is the 0-4 and 5-9 cohort, but the potential for issues from those is far smaller, in my opinion.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
Lol. Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns. Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument. Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.
England still showing huge week on week falls in case numbers.
Yes, and by now one would expect school cases to be showing up, especially in the Sunday LFTs.
It’s extremely encouraging. The hypothesis that secondary school-aged children have hit herd immunity is looking stronger by the day.
That was always the key cohort because it's always been a reservoir of potential hosts for the virus even as 90% of adults have been vaccinated to enough of a degree to make us sub-standard or unviable hosts.
I really don't understand why any country continued to pursue an eradication strategy beyond the point where vaccines became readily available. The won't vaccinate cohort were always going to end up catching it, better for them to get it in the summer when initial viral load is likely to be lower and hospitals much less busy.
All true. And an eradication strategy was not feasible, anyway.
The only potential further reservoir is the 0-4 and 5-9 cohort, but the potential for issues from those is far smaller, in my opinion.
Why have the 5-9s not had it? They're surely not appreciably less social than the 10-14s.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
Yes, or a @Stodge PB post. Perception is all that matters. Reality is false consciousness.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Given how vindictive Boris Johnson is to those who dare criticise him this contribution by Aaron is going to put him in the PM's bad books for even longer.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
You and the other members of the "tribe" are trying to shout out people you do not agree with. . It wont work.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Indeed. It's strategically useful to keep fear bubbling away where it can thrive. The doves captured London long ago (although it has barely registered an exit wave, as so many people had the virus earlier on) but, from reports on here, the Covid Perception Index remains pretty hawkish in much of provincial England. As you say, that's quite handy for the vax programme.
Given how vindictive Boris Johnson is to those who dare criticise him this contribution by Aaron is going to put him in the PM's bad books for even longer.
He's a Red Waller iirc. Might he be thinking of what will work back in the constituency?
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
It'snot just the British who can succumb to British exceptionalism. The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Alternatively they may not give a fuck about what Britain is doing and do what they think is best for their countries. The proof of that might be the large variation in the actions taken by those ‘continentals’.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
His posting on Covid compared to yours is like Led Zeppelin vs Spinal Tap.
Nine months before a general election is not mid term.
That rather depends on when the GE was scheduled and announced I'd think, since you couldn't guarantee term length other than the maximum. 2001 was 11 months early, 9 months before that takes us to 20 months from the scheduled GE, which seems pretty mid term.
Of course in reality few terms max out, but I think mid term has to be pretty broad.
Am I the only one who remembers us trying all sorts of things last autumn/winter to try to find something short of national lockdown that would prevent hospitals being overwhelmed?
Rule of Six, masking, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, local lockdowns, stuff like that? It’s not like we only ever tried lockdowns. We have plenty of data on what happened with the alternative options.
"Hospitals being overwhelmed" is lazy shorthand. According to the Guardian they have been overwhelmed or close to it every winter for the past 20 years.
I have said that we saw the pictures of Northern Italy and understandably panicked. And from that moment on everything was done in panic - from Nightingales to care homes. We didn't stop to think through the consequences or do any scenario analysis including all risk factors.
So, in your view, covid didn’t do anything out of the usual for the NHS? Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Are those graphs on their way? Control for any factor you think relevant. Single households, etc. Looking forward to it.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
His posting on Covid compared to yours is like Led Zeppelin vs Spinal Tap.
Thanks v much.
Song Remains the Same = 7.7 IMDb This is Spinal Tap = 7.9 IMDb
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
Based on the latest news about the incoming coalition government's views on covid restictions, it doesn't sound like they're going to be proactive enough to stop a big wave of infections. They're just talking about bringing back free testing and vaccine mandates for workplaces, but nothing in the immediate term.
In Germany, pretty much all Covid restrictions are the responsibility of the Lander.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Indeed. It's strategically useful to keep fear bubbling away where it can thrive. The doves captured London long ago (although it has barely registered an exit wave, as so many people had the virus earlier on) but, from reports on here, the Covid Perception Index remains pretty hawkish in much of provincial England. As you say, that's quite handy for the vax programme.
Here in the suburbs of Manchester, despiet the hectoring of our power-mad council, masks are getting rarer and few tremble at the thought of other humans in a way that they did shortly after freedom day. But my wife visited her mother in small town Cheshire over the weekend and masks in Tesco were still very much the rule. And apparently prevarication over socialisation is still very much in evidence out there. There are worriers here too, of course - I have colleagues who still fear to leave the house and will not return to the office (ever? if not now, when?). But they are very much in the minority. It's the first time for an age I have felt glad to be metropolitan.
That said, this is not a permanent feature. Attitudes 12 months ago were very much the reverse.
Here's something that will change the COVID narrative - three or four western European countries are set to go back into very tough lockdown measures and close schools in the next few days.
I do wonder how much iSage will ramp up the screeching when that happens. We know the government is not going to implement plan b, c or anything else. Maybe one of them will go on hunger strike?
Which countries?
I've been reading all the German Covid news and they are still keen to avoid "lockdowns" but they are ramping up vaxports and these 2G laws - ie you can't go anywhere if you're not vaxed
Greece, Netherlands, some parts of Germany and possibly Denmark.
Based on the latest news about the incoming coalition government's views on covid restictions, it doesn't sound like they're going to be proactive enough to stop a big wave of infections. They're just talking about bringing back free testing and vaccine mandates for workplaces, but nothing in the immediate term.
The Greek government is also adamant that it won't reintroduce lockdown, the economic and social damage is too high
Continental/EU countries will do vaxports and mask mandates but no "lockdown", and they will try and brave it through the winter - is what I predict. Good luck to them, they might need it. As might we all, of course
(Which is exactly what we have here in LA. Mask mandates and vaxports.)
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
You and the other members of the "tribe" are trying to shout out people you do not agree with. . It wont work.
FYI i voted LD at the GE.
I don't want to come over all HYUFD but frankly we can happily do without your vote and to be honest following one of your random unsolicited insults the other day re the LDs it seems unlikely you ever did vote for them. Next you will be telling us you voted Labour.
Another day of evidence that we're just about hitting the herd immunity threshold. What's more is that it seems to be happening completely unnoticed by anyone except the amateur statistics people on the internet. The whole world seems to shutting it's eyes to UK COVID stats. If that German doomsday scenario is anywhere near accurate there will need to be a lot of questions asked of the German government about why they continued to pursue an eradication strategy while also realising it was never a realistic possibility.
Th factual numbers are wrong, because the people's feelings are The Truth.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
To be fair, I can see why HMG, scientists and the media are still pushing the "Covid is surging" and "lockdowns are possible" narratives. Because they want to frighten the last refuseniks into getting the jab, and they want to make sure the booster campaign continues its success
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
Yes I can understand the government ramping up the possibility of lockdowns to get people into the vaccines centres. What I don't understand is foreign countries not learning our lesson. The NPIs were always a shit idea once PIs existed to enough of an extent. Since May this year we've all been able to get vaccinated pretty easily in Europe.
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Their waning immunity is about 6 weeks behind ours, don't forget. So their booster campaign will follow the same path?
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
This is absolutely spot on.
Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.
There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.
Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.
So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.
Now all SKS's Labour has to do is come out with and an ideology.
They have one. GTTO. It's deep, profound, sharply delineated, taught at all the best places.
I'm more scared of SKS being PM than Boris. It won't work with me.
Although, living in Scotland, I would vote Lord Satan of the Satan Party Incorporated if I thought they were the best chance to kick out an SNP Type; So I may well end up voting Labour next GE.
Great, so long as you realize they'll end up counting it. Thing is, you are your vote and your vote is you. People try and deny this but I'm not inclined to let them.
I tactical voted Labour at Holyrood this year.
You're saying that makes me a Labourite??
Wait a sec, you called me an "SNP Type" because I said I'm planning to vote SNP to get rid of my Conservative MP at the next election. So, yeah. Thems the rules.
Nope.
If you're planning on voting SNP then you are clearly an SNP Type.
If you're planning on voting tactically do defeat the SNP then you're an Anti-SNP Type (or a Yoon if you prefer)
It's a binary issue in Scotland. Thems the rules...
That's just your obsession, McHYUFD, but not everyone sees it that way. I voted Lib Dem last time because that's what was closest to what I preferred, even though they had no hope in this constituency. Next time, barring another change of heart, I'll be joining in the great tactical voting merry-go-round. But not the same one you're on. I'll be voting anti-Boris. That means SNP in this constituency. Well, unless the Lib Dems or your beloved Labour make a sudden comeback.
Eh??? I'm afraid with SNP Types polling c. 45pc it's a binary issue in Scotland - That's just a fact.
There's more to politics that the fucking independence question.
Says an SNP Type. BTW, you're supposed to wait until 2 weeks before Holyrood election date before you come out with that argument.
Ok Jezza.
Yeah well I've changed constiutcy since last time so will have to do more research as to whether I'm voting Con or Lab (or indeed Lib Dem) next time and hopefully won't err like last time.
I hope you can be persuaded that the Conservatives really need to be shunted out of power (if they still have Boris in charge).
If Cons are the best chance to kick out an SNP Type next time round I'll be voting Con. That's Nailed On.
Comments
You are not just doing this to distract from Sweden having done really, really badly compared to the very similar Norway, Finland and Denmark right?
Before we start making comparison woth small dense international travel hubs with disfunctional governments like Belgium?
Post bar edit to my post you're replying to - I did, of course, mean to say that these days few can be UNaware that the Green Party is proper Left!
I must say I'm becoming suspicious of the BBC's pro-~Government bias, so that's what led me to the post.
Meanwhile, Ireland is worth noting. It's Covid problem has nudged up in recent days, and now has more cases per capita than the UK
FYI i voted LD at the GE.
I would like a Europe-wide view also.
Headlines aren't as snappy as they used to be.
Genuinely interested.
Yeah, I think we’re done here. There’s no evidence you’re ever going to accept.
Scientific papers? Pshaw, if they don’t say what you want, they’re irrelevant.
The level of acute beds taken up and the ICNARC reports on ICU loading? Nothing out of the ordinary.
Any evidence on comparability of Nordic countries on multiple measures and their differences from the UK? Nope, not listening.
Why should anyone waste their time showing you any evidence on it? You’ve made your mind up, and facts aren’t going to sway that.
Does that sound more comforting to you. Happy to oblige. We were brilliant and Sweden was worse than useless I'm surprised there's anyone still alive over there, frankly.l
Well, he's got some fans.
You are covering every angle of bad faith arguing here in an impressive way.
We could have done far worse than we did - most particularly if we had followed the Swedish lead. As it was we managed to do pretty badly all on our own.
Your comfort blanket of lockdown, lockdown sooner, lockdown longer has been a persistent feature of Covid on PB. Of course you hate lockdown but it is your go-to response when one country has shown that it can be handled without for example, taking children out of school and other measures.
But you hate that because you are so invested in lockdown. With people like you I suspect we will get another lockdown or two before the pandemic is over. Because they work. And the NHS is swamped.
Sensible People (TM) went to the gym, had hot broth and goat worming pills with a shot of JIF. And were fine.
Don't you read The Real News?
Continental/EU countries will do vaxports and mask mandates but no "lockdown", and they will try and brave it through the winter - is what I predict. Good luck to them, they might need it. As might we all, of course
I really don't understand why any country continued to pursue an eradication strategy beyond the point where vaccines became readily available. The won't vaccinate cohort were always going to end up catching it, better for them to get it in the summer when initial viral load is likely to be lower and hospitals much less busy.
Haven't you watched a press conference on COVID?
About the worst thing that could happen is everyone deciding Covid is OVER, and giving up on those annoying jabs
This was one passage: "If you measure excess mortality for the whole of 2020, Sweden (according to Eurostat) will end up in 21st place out of 31 European countries. If Sweden was a part of the US, its death rate would rank number 43 of the 50 states."
Fine, there were special situations, single households, you name it and they actually ballsed it up. I realise that now.
This whole discussion started when I wondered, idly, what Sweden looked like vs the whole of Europe actually the answer is in the article, if it is true.
And then everyone went beserk saying how you couldn't compare it and the three other Scandi countries were the only comparators at all possible to compare Sweden with. Perhaps they are right.
But sounds not 100% right to me.
Scotland cases seem rather sticky over the last couple of weeks.
North Shropshire by election set for 16 Dec, @christopherhope reports.. wannabe Tory candidates told to apply by 10am this morning.
Bexley by-election, 2 Dec.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1457738350094340099
The other weird part is where the fuck is the booster programme in Europe? Ours started badly but we're on course now to do 25m booster doses before Xmas, if the government opens up appointments to under 50s it will be more like 30m by then and 40m by the end of January. Once again I'm struggling to understand the complacency in Europe over vaccines. They haven't learned the lessons of last year at all it seems.
Where it'll become impossible to ignore is if we get cases <20,000 per day, as that's where "lowest cases since June" type stories can start.
("Lowest cases since May" is a much longer shot as it requires < 3,000 per day!)
You'd be folding in a good deal of the 2019-20 Flu deaths into your count which would be a huge confounding variable.
The booster campaign is also good. And the government has bravely committed to keeping nearly all our freedoms even through the turbulence of the Autumn, and rising cases, when many were sincerely crying out for lockdowns. eg Kir Royale Starmer
It is ironic that, just as the government shows basic and notable competence in regard to the biggest issue of the day - the Plague - it completely fucks up over some relatively trivial issue - Patergate - and dives in the polls thereby
Calling on Bozo personally to show leadership and come and apologise to the house
LIFE!
It's almost a repeat of January this year, just the right side of Christmas.
What is odd - and where I agree entirely - is how many sensible nations run by sensible people don't see what is happening elsewhere, and decide to get AHEAD of the curve. Germany could have looked at Israel and the UK and thought: OK, let's start boosters straight away, after 5 months have lapsed, so we don't get caught out
Time and again nations have failed to do this, to be proactive. Britain was the same, of course
1979-1983, 1983-1987, 1987-1992, 1997-2001, 2001-2005, 2010-2015, 2015-2017 and 2017-2019.
Just for starters lol!
Yeah, sure. I never spent ages arguing last year that we needed to find the "low hanging fruit" and see which NPIs worked best in order to avoid lockdowns.
Never said that lockdowns were a crude instrument.
Never had issues with a severely autistic son getting frazzled.
Got to laugh, really.
Very/fairly closely: 39% (+11)
Not very closely: 24% (+4)
Aware, but not following: 22% (-2)
Not aware: 16% (-12)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1457759399087271942
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
A few random countries (excess deaths per 100,000 people):
Russia: 620
US: 246
Denmark: 28
UK: 197
Finland: 50
France: 127
Switzerland: 122
Netherlands: 145
Norway: 4
And....Sweden: 109
On those terms it did far worse than its near neighbours and sort of top of the pack in Europe.
The only potential further reservoir is the 0-4 and 5-9 cohort, but the potential for issues from those is far smaller, in my opinion.
Sorry to hear about your son.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1997-2001
The continentals often seem look at Britain and decide that whatever we're doing must be wrong, doesn't apply on the continent and that no lessons can be learned.
Of course in reality few terms max out, but I think mid term has to be pretty broad.
Song Remains the Same = 7.7 IMDb
This is Spinal Tap = 7.9 IMDb
Your support is much appreciated.
There are worriers here too, of course - I have colleagues who still fear to leave the house and will not return to the office (ever? if not now, when?). But they are very much in the minority.
It's the first time for an age I have felt glad to be metropolitan.
That said, this is not a permanent feature. Attitudes 12 months ago were very much the reverse.
@andrew_lilico
·
32m
England's struggle to keep cases down continues, with as little success as we've managed these past sixteen days.
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1457776661378654210
Lockdown fanatics now looking at how poorly kids are doing with stuff like reading because, erm, the skools were shut.
Countries seem strangely resistant to getting ahead of the curve. The EU has almost 200 million unused Covid vaccines doses, most of which are Pfizer, and a small amount Moderna.
There is an increasing amount of evidence now that a third dose pushes your immune response well above the levels you got after your second dose, and that the path of antibody declines is shallower.
Efficacy for 2 + 1 is probably in the 96 to 98 point range, even with Delta. And if that fades to 85 over a year, that's absolutely fine.
So, why is it that the EU (and the US for that matter) seems so lackadaisical about encouraging boosters? There's really no reason not to have everyone getting jabs on their six month anniversaries.