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Johnson slumps to worst ever Ipsos rating while LAB take lead – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 8 in General
imageJohnson slumps to worst ever Ipsos rating while LAB take lead – politicalbetting.com

The latest poll from Ipsos-MORI, the firm that has been political polling in the UK since the 1970s, is out and has bad news for Johnson and worrying news for the Tories. The voting figures are:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    tesr
  • The country is finally realising BJ sucks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,189
    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?
  • More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783
  • kle4 said:

    Not nice to be accused of being a liar.

    Avoid the internet.
    Thought with an understanding of my current state, people would have been a bit kinder but I was clearly wrong
    'current'
    You accusing me of lying about my mental health issues now, utterly despicable post
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,739

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,176
    edited November 8

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    Bit early for PB Tories jumping into but SKS is crap deflection mode? Pro tip, leave it for 30-40 posts next time, no more persuasive but you look less desperate.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,589
    MaxPB said:

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
    They're not employees - they're under services contracts. I'm not sure how the detail of this proposal works, but it's the continuation of 25 years of the same.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    Not a bad picture of Boris there. He would be happy with that.

    At some point people will realise that being a great election winner does not mean that someone will be a great PM.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,189

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    Bit early for PB Tories jumping into but SKS is crap deflection mode? Pro tip, leave it for 30-40 posts next time, no more persuasive but you look less desperate.
    No deflection.

    This has been a bad week for the Tories, there's no doubt about that. Yet even after this awful week, Boris is still five points clear on Keir for satisfaction.

    You'd think this week it would be the other way around, is it not noteworthy that it isn't?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 885

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    Just another example of the dictatorship into which we are drifting.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,739

    MaxPB said:

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
    They're not employees - they're under services contracts. I'm not sure how the detail of this proposal works, but it's the continuation of 25 years of the same.
    The government gets to specify where the services need to be provided. Again, if that's not to their liking the GPs can quit. Except they won't because they know how good a number they're onto. One of my cousins is an A&E consultant, the loathing he has for GPs is higher than even I would have figured. He genuinely believes that if all GPs were made redundant tomorrow no one in the country would notice.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,915

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    Bit early for PB Tories jumping into but SKS is crap deflection mode? Pro tip, leave it for 30-40 posts next time, no more persuasive but you look less desperate.
    No deflection.

    This has been a bad week for the Tories, there's no doubt about that. Yet even after this awful week, Boris is still five points clear on Keir for satisfaction.

    You'd think this week it would be the other way around, is it not noteworthy that it isn't?

    IPSOS-MORI fieldwork was almost entirely done pre-Paterson. Even so, the more people believe Johnson is unfit to be PM than believe it of Starmer. That may be a more important data point than net satisfaction.

  • IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.
  • The country is finally realising BJ sucks.

    The question is what will a lot of Tory Red Wall MP's make of it. The new line today that there's "nothing more to say" may already be hastening his departure.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,915
    The Green vote in this poll is fascinating. It should worry both Labour and the Tories. Labour should be concerned it is sticky and will not be won back during a GE campaign. The Tories should be even more concerned about the opposite.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
    They're not employees - they're under services contracts. I'm not sure how the detail of this proposal works, but it's the continuation of 25 years of the same.
    The government gets to specify where the services need to be provided. Again, if that's not to their liking the GPs can quit. Except they won't because they know how good a number they're onto. One of my cousins is an A&E consultant, the loathing he has for GPs is higher than even I would have figured. He genuinely believes that if all GPs were made redundant tomorrow no one in the country would notice.
    And to clarify, although I hold exactly the same view, I am not @MaxPB's cousin.

    :smile:
  • The country is finally realising BJ sucks.

    The question is what will a lot of Tory Red Wall MP's make of it. The new line today that there's "nothing more to say" may already be hastening his departure.
    I was in hospital over the weekend (nothing to worry about) and I briefly read something about a minister saying the standards commissioner won't investigate the PM because it was a ministerial affair not an MP issue.

    Boy is Number 10 in for a shock, I don't think they are prepared for this.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,574
    TOPPING said:

    Not a bad picture of Boris there. He would be happy with that.

    At some point people will realise that being a great election winner does not mean that someone will be a great PM.

    The photograph? It looks about 20 years old and is evidence of self-satisfaction levels of 100%

    Incidentally the government is going to fall over the Dried Fruit Famine. There isn't any, according to several people I know who want to make Christmas cakes/puddings, and Cadbury's Fruit & Nut is now Chopped Fruit & Nut and has no fruit in it. Where's yer saving Christmas the noo, Boris?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,915

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    The fieldwork for the IPSOS-MORI poll finished on 4th November. It started at the end of October.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,739

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.

    Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.

    The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.

    What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    TOPPING said:

    Not a bad picture of Boris there. He would be happy with that.

    At some point people will realise that being a great election winner does not mean that someone will be a great PM.

    Unfortunately there's not really a way to tell if someone would be a great PM either. People can surprise us after all, on the upside and downside, and there's no equivalent position as a good minister or LOTO might be a bad PM. So it makes sense politicians focus on the winning first.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,176

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    Javid is a fcuking idiot if he thinks doctors and the NHS in general have much responsibility for or agency in areas of low life expectancy.

    On a connected note, very interesting interview with Fiona Hill, the official on the U.S. National Security Council & scourge of Trump, on Woman's Hour this am. Her moving description of her upbringing in Bishop Auckland made it clear that the degradation of UK working people into the hopeless underclass has been going on for a long time, from the 60s at least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    ClippP said:

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    Just another example of the dictatorship into which we are drifting.
    Errr.. GP sign contracts with the NHS. They don't get to decide that they all want to work in South Kensington, or something....
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Not a bad picture of Boris there. He would be happy with that.

    At some point people will realise that being a great election winner does not mean that someone will be a great PM.

    The photograph? It looks about 20 years old and is evidence of self-satisfaction levels of 100%

    Incidentally the government is going to fall over the Dried Fruit Famine. There isn't any, according to several people I know who want to make Christmas cakes/puddings, and Cadbury's Fruit & Nut is now Chopped Fruit & Nut and has no fruit in it. Where's yer saving Christmas the noo, Boris?
    Not sure what the problem is - our Christmas cakes were made 2 weeks ago (partly because every weekend between then and Christmas now has things on, partly because shortages of secondary importance items have been hit and miss round here for months).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,574
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Not a bad picture of Boris there. He would be happy with that.

    At some point people will realise that being a great election winner does not mean that someone will be a great PM.

    The photograph? It looks about 20 years old and is evidence of self-satisfaction levels of 100%

    Incidentally the government is going to fall over the Dried Fruit Famine. There isn't any, according to several people I know who want to make Christmas cakes/puddings, and Cadbury's Fruit & Nut is now Chopped Fruit & Nut and has no fruit in it. Where's yer saving Christmas the noo, Boris?
    Not sure what the problem is - our Christmas cakes were made 2 weeks ago (partly because every weekend between then and Christmas now has things on, partly because shortages of secondary importance items have been hit and miss round here for months).
    We will find out where you live and raid your pantry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
    They're not employees - they're under services contracts. I'm not sure how the detail of this proposal works, but it's the continuation of 25 years of the same.
    The government gets to specify where the services need to be provided. Again, if that's not to their liking the GPs can quit. Except they won't because they know how good a number they're onto. One of my cousins is an A&E consultant, the loathing he has for GPs is higher than even I would have figured. He genuinely believes that if all GPs were made redundant tomorrow no one in the country would notice.
    My fiancee's mum is a retired GP, she notes there's none of the evening & weekend work she had to do. Her opinion of the current lot is similar to your cousins.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,574

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    The fieldwork for the IPSOS-MORI poll finished on 4th November. It started at the end of October.

    And it shows a tory to Green shift. COP26 uncoincidentally started 31 Oct.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 8
    MaxPB said:

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.

    Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.

    The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.

    What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
    I'm doing some research for threads I'm writing, even at the 1997 general election Ken Clarke/the Tories were preferred to run the economy that Brown/Labour.

    Once the Tories lose that reputation for economic competence they are more f***ed than a stepmom on pornhub.

    They'll lose that magic which was 'They are bastards but they know how to run an economy' which helped them in 1992 and 2015 to some extent.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    kle4 said:

    Not nice to be accused of being a liar.

    Avoid the internet.
    Thought with an understanding of my current state, people would have been a bit kinder but I was clearly wrong
    'current'
    You accusing me of lying about my mental health issues now, utterly despicable post
    All the best CHB, I hope things improve soon.

    But KLE4 has a point: the Internet can provide great joy; but forums can be a hellish place. PB is one of the better ones, but if it's making your issues worse, it might be time to take a short break, from posting at least. And if you do, I hope you come back soon; for you can write good, informative posts, and your reappearance might mean your issues are lessened. :)

    (I'd also like to add my condolences to BJO.)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944
    edited November 8
    MaxPB said:

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.

    Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.

    The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.

    What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
    Yes, and the investigation into Paterson was all about issues that predated Covid. So Randox getting huge contracts for Covid testing hasn't come under much scrutiny yet, although it will. Paterson apparently had discussions with Lord Bethell, Health Minister in the HoL. Randox's contracts were awarded without tendering. It stinks to me.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,915
    edited November 8
    Voters do not like being lied to. They do not like to be taken for fools. They hate the idea there is one rule for those in charge and another for everyone else. This is an inevitable problem for any government led by Boris Johnson. If the economy does begin to go wrong, it's going to become even more of a problem. It's noticeable that the poll also indicates some of the sheen may be coming off Rishi Sunak, too.
  • Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    Bit early for PB Tories jumping into but SKS is crap deflection mode? Pro tip, leave it for 30-40 posts next time, no more persuasive but you look less desperate.
    No deflection.

    This has been a bad week for the Tories, there's no doubt about that. Yet even after this awful week, Boris is still five points clear on Keir for satisfaction.

    You'd think this week it would be the other way around, is it not noteworthy that it isn't?
    Polls are a lagging index. Your proposal to replace Starmer would provide the perfect cover for the clown to carry on with his fingers in the till doing stupid.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
  • MaxPB said:

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    Yes, the Tories could be down to the low 30s soon. This has irritated people that would normally be pretty solid Tory voters.

    Paraphrasing one of my banker friends "not only do they want to tax us into poverty, they want to shovel the money to their donors". It's hurting the party's reputation for boring competence a lot.

    The free holidays are also getting a lot more attention than I would have thought too.

    What has really hurt the most though is defending Paterson. It is the most obvious case of lobbying misconduct that even the most uninitiated can see he got paid then Randox got paid. It being Randox also doesn't help because millions of people have paid £50-80 for day 2 tests with them. The connection between that money they've spent with Randox and the Tory party giving them a contract has been made.
    I'm doing some research for threads I'm writing, even at the 1997 general election Ken Clarke/the Tories were preferred to run the economy that Brown/Labour.

    Once the Tories lose that reputation for economic competence they are more f***ed than a stepmom on pornhub.

    They'll lose that magic which was 'They are bastards but they know how to run an economy' which helped them in 1992 and 2015 to some extent.
    I almost feel sorry for this mythical stepmom...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,574

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    Bit early for PB Tories jumping into but SKS is crap deflection mode? Pro tip, leave it for 30-40 posts next time, no more persuasive but you look less desperate.
    No deflection.

    This has been a bad week for the Tories, there's no doubt about that. Yet even after this awful week, Boris is still five points clear on Keir for satisfaction.

    You'd think this week it would be the other way around, is it not noteworthy that it isn't?
    Polls are a lagging index. Your proposal to replace Starmer would provide the perfect cover for the clown to carry on with his fingers in the till doing stupid.
    Just at the stage where the much-trumpeted forensicity might come in handy
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,189

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Yes I ignore the negatives, because the experts I know have always previously advised to do so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 8

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    Most of it was conducted before the Paterson resignation too.

    The government is also ready to support banning MPs undertaking paid consultancy work now
  • Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Which reminds me, I need to put the finishing touches to my piece on why net ratings are better than absolute ratings.

    There's a fascinating link I found between and predicting electoral outcomes, must also thank Sir Robert Worcester for his insights on this.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Not a bad picture of Boris there. He would be happy with that.

    At some point people will realise that being a great election winner does not mean that someone will be a great PM.

    Unfortunately there's not really a way to tell if someone would be a great PM either. People can surprise us after all, on the upside and downside, and there's no equivalent position as a good minister or LOTO might be a bad PM. So it makes sense politicians focus on the winning first.
    I think plenty of us have been saying for some time (pre-PM time) that he is a useless twat. If we here on humble PB can spot it surely others can.

    But yes, he is also showbiz and an election winner. No doubt about that.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,915
    IshmaelZ said:

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    The fieldwork for the IPSOS-MORI poll finished on 4th November. It started at the end of October.

    And it shows a tory to Green shift. COP26 uncoincidentally started 31 Oct.

    I think the sewage scandal may have a lot to do with it as well.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    edited November 8
    So it's cutting through. What a relief! If these latest BoJo antics had been shrugged off by the public we'd be in a dark place indeed. The key thing now is for the story not to slide into "what a shower, they're all at it" territory, ie the corrosive notion of MPs generally being "all the same" and "in it for themselves" with "snouts in the trough" etc etc. That helps nobody and neither is it true. Fact is, they're not all at it, Owen Paterson was at it, and he was caught bang to rights by a perfectly good standards & disciplinary system, which Johnson sought to abolish because he fears scrutiny. That's the scandal, and it's about to be burnished by Covid cash and contracts for mates. We need to keep the focus there. Not sleaze, but Tory sleaze, Government sleaze, Johnson sleaze. Where sleaze = mendacity + corruption.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IIRC my chats with pollsters about 50-75% of this fieldwork would have been conducted before the Owen Paterson farrago, so it could have been much worse for the Tories and the PM.

    The fieldwork for the IPSOS-MORI poll finished on 4th November. It started at the end of October.

    And it shows a tory to Green shift. COP26 uncoincidentally started 31 Oct.

    I think the sewage scandal may have a lot to do with it as well.

    There is a (sewage spraying) spread of views among the party voters. On one hand those who think Tory MPs voting to keep flushing turds down the river for profit is Bad. On the other hand those who think the environment is a conspiracy by tree huggers and the market should be allowed to keep burning peasants for warmth.

    We could see a loss of voters to both Green and REFUK on the same issue.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,257
    FPT...

    If living under lockdown equates with being dead, then shielding must be worse than being dead.

    However, given the choice, I'd rather have to shield again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 8

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Sunak still has better net figures than Starmer though.

    If Labour start to build a consistent poll lead after this then Sunak could be Major (who was also Chancellor) to Boris' post poll tax Thatcher with Starmer as Kinnock.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740
    Just listening to reflections on GMT on R4.

    It seems that France stuck with PMT for a number of decades before accepting the new standard.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944
    kinabalu said:

    So it's cutting through. What a relief! If these latest BoJo antics had been shrugged off by the public we'd be in a dark place indeed. The key thing now imo is for the story not to slide into "what a shower, they're all at it" territory, ie the corrosive notion of MPs generally being "all the same" and "in it for themselves" with "snouts in the trough" etc etc. That helps nobody and neither is it true. Fact is, they're not all at it. Owen Patterson was at it, and he was caught bang to rights by a perfectly good standards & disciplinary system, which Johnson sought to abolish because he fears scrutiny. That's the scandal, and it's about to be burnished by Covid cash and contracts for mates. We need to keep the focus there. Not sleaze, but Tory sleaze, Government sleaze, Johnson sleaze. Where sleaze = mendacity + corruption.

    Spot on. The Daily Mail's reporting of last week's shenanigans was telling. They absolutely slaughtered 'MPs' in their editorial, implying that it was MPs across the House with their snouts in the trough, just as in the expenses scandal. They avoided using the word Tory. The great British public may well think - here we go again, self-seeking greedy MPs, the lot of them.

    So Starmer and his mates have just one job today. Pin it on the Tories. Make sure that this corruption is not pinned on MPs sui generis, but Tory MPs. And the Tory Party. And JRM. And the PM.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210

    There was a recent Health Foundation report that estimated the average number of years of life lost from a COVID death was 10.

    So at excess deaths of ~120k then that's ~1.2 million lost years of life.

    That's the equivalent of a single week of restrictions. Just one week, matches every single death through the entire pandemic to date.
    But that's not the correct comparison. Those were the deaths we had with restrictions. You need to compare against the deaths there would have been without restrictions. That number has to be estimated, but it's certainly far higher than the deaths we did see.

    (This is leaving aside whether your formula for the severity of restrictions is valid.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740
    Brains Trust: Can anyone point me to a statement back in the summer where they laid out the policy to allow the exit wave to happen in summer, rather than try to lock down, as it would be better than having the exit wave in winter?

    Thanks

    (@Horse - Glad that you are feeling a little better. Even if your friend may be about to feel a little worse.)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,189

    There was a recent Health Foundation report that estimated the average number of years of life lost from a COVID death was 10.

    So at excess deaths of ~120k then that's ~1.2 million lost years of life.

    That's the equivalent of a single week of restrictions. Just one week, matches every single death through the entire pandemic to date.
    But that's not the correct comparison. Those were the deaths we had with restrictions. You need to compare against the deaths there would have been without restrictions. That number has to be estimated, but it's certainly far higher than the deaths we did see.

    (This is leaving aside whether your formula for the severity of restrictions is valid.)
    Yes we had restrictions but we lifted them months ago.

    The question was whether it was appropriate to still have restrictions and the point being that the UK is one of the only countries to have come out of the pandemic without any legal restrictions anymore already.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210
    MaxPB said:

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
    They're not employees. They're contractors. Sort of. It's confusing. When the NHS was created, GPs kicked up a huge fuss, so they were left as independent self-employed people who contract to the NHS to provide services. They are still mostly that, although there are lots of complications.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Yes I ignore the negatives, because the experts I know have always previously advised to do so.
    You shouldn't ignore them. Sometimes a person's vote will be driven by what they dislike if they dislike it enough.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    Congrats to CHB on winning his bet on a Labour lead.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Golly, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking going on on this thread.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406
    I'm not surprised to see the Tories losing their poll lead but I would be surprised if it becomes a longer term trend, not least as a confected row with Johnny Foreigner is incoming and that always goes down well with the infinitely gullible.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    P A T E R S O N

    'Highly educated' PBers' congenital inability to spell the names of various MPs seems to extend to OGH, sadly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    kinabalu said:

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Yes I ignore the negatives, because the experts I know have always previously advised to do so.
    You shouldn't ignore them. Sometimes a person's vote will be driven by what they dislike if they dislike it enough.
    Well that is how Biden beat Trump of course
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    A week of lockdown is not the same as a week of death
  • P A T E R S O N

    'Highly educated' PBers' congenital inability to spell the names of various MPs seems to extend to OGH, sadly.

    OGH uses voice recognition software to compose PB threads, so you get the occasionally SNAFU like this.

    I don't use voice recognition software because it doesn't like my working class Yorkshire accent.
  • Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.

    I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 8
    I regret to inform you that BT Sport have confirmed they have the rights to this winter's Ashes and for Australian home international cricket until 2025.

    Because of Covid-19 they are likely to end up using the host commentators, and they make the Indian commentators sound fair and impartial.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,739
    Going back specifically to why it being Randox is the most damaging aspect of it, almost everyone I know thinks that the day 2 testing regime is a scam for companies to profit from people wanting to go on holiday. That was a pre-existing piece of public consciousness, now the same company that probably half the nation has paid for day 2 tests turns out to be paying some unknown Tory MP and then by chance they get favourable contracts. It may not be the case that Randox are involved with the day 2 testing because of this affair, however, people know Randox as a company and tend to already resent having to give them £50 each every time they go on holiday.

    This, IMO, is going to hurt the most. The perception that Randox are able to rip us off directly because they paid some Tory MP to enable them to do so. I don't actually think the government contracts stuff hurts as much as people think. If it was some unknown company involved the party could probably just ride it out and just point at the COVID data two weeks from now and declare victory over it to change the subject. As it stands people are still booking tests with this company they heard on the news that was paying some MP in the Tory party. Everyday this continues the worse it gets for the Tories.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the day 2 testing requirement is quietly dropped soon so the name Randox disappears into obscurity again.
  • Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.

    I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?


    2018 called and want their story back.

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1017771006990090245
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348
    Afternoon all :)

    Just dropping in to see some of the excitable comment to this poll and perhaps some more excitable comment to come from Redfield/Wilton later (though it'll probably show a 10-point Conservative lead).

    Two observations - the LDs will be disappointed to see they aren't currently the beneficiary of Conservative disenchantment - to be fair, what this doesn't tell us is how the disillusioned Conservative vote is moving in the seats where it matters rather then the ones where it doesn't. @Omnium may wish the LDs to disappear for reasons about which I am unfamiliar but what is more likely we will see a substantial undeclared and unsanctioned pact between the two parties in some key constituencies.

    The other is we are seeing the end of the polling glacis caused by the pandemic. @Philip_Thompson tells us ad infinitum the pandemic ended in July - the public aren't as quick as him it would seem but the public politics are now entering the post-Covid era. The virus is there but other parts of politics are becoming more important and we are seeing how these events which had high impact before the virus are now re-establishing that importance as the virus itself becomes less of an issue.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,526

    I regret to inform you that BT Sport have confirmed they have the rights to this winter's Ashes and for Australian home international cricket until 2025.

    Because of Covid-19 they are likely to end up using the host commentators, and they make the Indian commentators sound fair and impartial.

    Is TMS still going to be on the radio? Thats all that really matters to me for cricket and the media. The rest can go swim.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 8

    I regret to inform you that BT Sport have confirmed they have the rights to this winter's Ashes and for Australian home international cricket until 2025.

    Because of Covid-19 they are likely to end up using the host commentators, and they make the Indian commentators sound fair and impartial.

    Is TMS still going to be on the radio? Thats all that really matters to me for cricket and the media. The rest can go swim.
    Not been officially confirmed but by the looks of it the BBC are taking the Aussie radio commentary but with Jonathan Agnew being part of their commentary team.

    (Quite a few TMS regulars have said they aren't going to Australia this winter.)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348

    Golly, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking going on on this thread.

    Could be worse - there's been an awful lot of people saying none of this would hurt the Prime Minister and he'll be re-elected comfortably in 2024.

    There's also those who say we don't focus enough on how bad the opposition parties are.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    edited November 8

    kinabalu said:

    So it's cutting through. What a relief! If these latest BoJo antics had been shrugged off by the public we'd be in a dark place indeed. The key thing now imo is for the story not to slide into "what a shower, they're all at it" territory, ie the corrosive notion of MPs generally being "all the same" and "in it for themselves" with "snouts in the trough" etc etc. That helps nobody and neither is it true. Fact is, they're not all at it. Owen Patterson was at it, and he was caught bang to rights by a perfectly good standards & disciplinary system, which Johnson sought to abolish because he fears scrutiny. That's the scandal, and it's about to be burnished by Covid cash and contracts for mates. We need to keep the focus there. Not sleaze, but Tory sleaze, Government sleaze, Johnson sleaze. Where sleaze = mendacity + corruption.

    Spot on. The Daily Mail's reporting of last week's shenanigans was telling. They absolutely slaughtered 'MPs' in their editorial, implying that it was MPs across the House with their snouts in the trough, just as in the expenses scandal. They avoided using the word Tory. The great British public may well think - here we go again, self-seeking greedy MPs, the lot of them.

    So Starmer and his mates have just one job today. Pin it on the Tories. Make sure that this corruption is not pinned on MPs sui generis, but Tory MPs. And the Tory Party. And JRM. And the PM.
    Yes, that was transparent by the Mail, wasn't it. And I think it'll be the backstop position for Johnson on all this.

    "We need to clean up our act generally, here at Westminster, that's why I'm trying so hard to get a better disciplinary & standards system, it's vital we Get This Done, show the ordinary decent people of this country that we're working for them and only them, and it's such a damn shame the Labour Party insist on playing politics with it rather than co-operating."

    Look out for this outrageous take in the chamber and from the more dedicated PB Tories on here - and if he (and they) get away with it we might as well pack up right now, Al, and start thinking seriously about fly fishing.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    kinabalu said:

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Yes I ignore the negatives, because the experts I know have always previously advised to do so.
    You shouldn't ignore them. Sometimes a person's vote will be driven by what they dislike if they dislike it enough.
    Exhibit 1: Trump
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 859

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    Bit early for PB Tories jumping into but SKS is crap deflection mode? Pro tip, leave it for 30-40 posts next time, no more persuasive but you look less desperate.
    No deflection.

    This has been a bad week for the Tories, there's no doubt about that. Yet even after this awful week, Boris is still five points clear on Keir for satisfaction.

    You'd think this week it would be the other way around, is it not noteworthy that it isn't?
    What should really concern the Tories is the momentum. A narrative is being established that looks very bleak for Johnson. This could be an inflection point that blows the next elction wide open, even given the large lead in seats that the Conservatives come in with,

    Meanwhile "the economy stupid" is looking very bad indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    MaxPB said:

    Going back specifically to why it being Randox is the most damaging aspect of it, almost everyone I know thinks that the day 2 testing regime is a scam for companies to profit from people wanting to go on holiday. That was a pre-existing piece of public consciousness, now the same company that probably half the nation has paid for day 2 tests turns out to be paying some unknown Tory MP and then by chance they get favourable contracts. It may not be the case that Randox are involved with the day 2 testing because of this affair, however, people know Randox as a company and tend to already resent having to give them £50 each every time they go on holiday.

    This, IMO, is going to hurt the most. The perception that Randox are able to rip us off directly because they paid some Tory MP to enable them to do so. I don't actually think the government contracts stuff hurts as much as people think. If it was some unknown company involved the party could probably just ride it out and just point at the COVID data two weeks from now and declare victory over it to change the subject. As it stands people are still booking tests with this company they heard on the news that was paying some MP in the Tory party. Everyday this continues the worse it gets for the Tories.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the day 2 testing requirement is quietly dropped soon so the name Randox disappears into obscurity again.

    Brexit was a choice that divided, but it was a choice that we did take as a nation.
    Covid - well that happened and was largely beyond the control of the Gov't.
    Sleaze though, that's all the Gov'ts fault. And they're being rightly punished for it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,930
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    More shameful anti free market policies from Boris Johnson, he really is a leftie.

    GPs would be barred from taking new jobs in affluent areas to force them to work in deprived towns under plans being considered by the government.

    A regulator tasked with restricting where family doctors can set up would improve health in poorer parts of the country that have far fewer doctors, in a plan put forward by a former senior official.

    Poor areas can have almost half the number of doctors per head as richer places and closing the gap is essential to Boris Johnson’s levelling-up goals, the Social Market Foundation think tank says in a report today.

    Ministers are understood to be interested in the plan after Sajid Javid, the health secretary, promised to address the “disease of disparity” under which poorer people die almost a decade earlier than the richest.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-set-to-be-barred-from-jobs-in-richer-areas-rl3jqf783

    They're employees. If they don't like it they can quit and go private. Oh right. People loathe private GPs because they're all useless and charge a fortune while NHS GPs are free, though still of limited use.
    They're not employees - they're under services contracts. I'm not sure how the detail of this proposal works, but it's the continuation of 25 years of the same.
    The government gets to specify where the services need to be provided. Again, if that's not to their liking the GPs can quit. Except they won't because they know how good a number they're onto. One of my cousins is an A&E consultant, the loathing he has for GPs is higher than even I would have figured. He genuinely believes that if all GPs were made redundant tomorrow no one in the country would notice.
    I don’t think it quite as bad as that, but it’s not an unusual opinion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,476
    I see the Cambridge Union Society has got itself into bother for last week’s debate during which historian/broadcaster Andrew Graham-Dixon made various racist and anti-Semitic comments, his performance including a lengthy Hitler impression.

    Rather bizarrely, within the society’s lengthy explanation and apology sent out to all members, they have included a link to the video just in case anyone wants to watch it for themselves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,476
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    So it's cutting through. What a relief! If these latest BoJo antics had been shrugged off by the public we'd be in a dark place indeed. The key thing now imo is for the story not to slide into "what a shower, they're all at it" territory, ie the corrosive notion of MPs generally being "all the same" and "in it for themselves" with "snouts in the trough" etc etc. That helps nobody and neither is it true. Fact is, they're not all at it. Owen Patterson was at it, and he was caught bang to rights by a perfectly good standards & disciplinary system, which Johnson sought to abolish because he fears scrutiny. That's the scandal, and it's about to be burnished by Covid cash and contracts for mates. We need to keep the focus there. Not sleaze, but Tory sleaze, Government sleaze, Johnson sleaze. Where sleaze = mendacity + corruption.

    Spot on. The Daily Mail's reporting of last week's shenanigans was telling. They absolutely slaughtered 'MPs' in their editorial, implying that it was MPs across the House with their snouts in the trough, just as in the expenses scandal. They avoided using the word Tory. The great British public may well think - here we go again, self-seeking greedy MPs, the lot of them.

    So Starmer and his mates have just one job today. Pin it on the Tories. Make sure that this corruption is not pinned on MPs sui generis, but Tory MPs. And the Tory Party. And JRM. And the PM.
    Yes, that was transparent by the Mail, wasn't it. And I think it'll be the backstop position for Johnson on all this.

    "We need to clean up our act generally, here at Westminster, that's why I'm trying so hard to get a better disciplinary & standards system, it's vital we Get This Done, show the ordinary decent people of this country that we're working for them and only them, and it's such a damn shame the Labour Party insist on playing politics with it rather than co-operating."

    Look out for this outrageous take in the chamber and from the more dedicated PB Tories on here - and if he (and they) get away with it we might as well pack up right now, Al, and start thinking seriously about fly fishing.
    That book is so hard to get hold of, though.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,257
    Those of us on PB discovered that we were able to book our boosters in advance over the weekend.

    And yet the BBC and Sky News still think that the system only opened up today.

    Another example of PB being the leading source of Covid information.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 8
    .
    IanB2 said:

    I see the Cambridge Union Society has got itself into bother for last week’s debate during which historian/broadcaster Andrew Graham-Dixon made various racist and anti-Semitic comments, his performance including a lengthy Hitler impression.

    Rather bizarrely, within the society’s lengthy explanation and apology sent out to all members, they have included a link to the video just in case anyone wants to watch it for themselves.

    Actually that's a slightly different interpretation about the longest Hitler impression the Union has ever heard.

    The link was for people to judge for themselves if Graham-Dixon's defence was believable or if Keir Bradwell deserves opprobrium.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,476
    MaxPB said:

    Going back specifically to why it being Randox is the most damaging aspect of it, almost everyone I know thinks that the day 2 testing regime is a scam for companies to profit from people wanting to go on holiday. That was a pre-existing piece of public consciousness, now the same company that probably half the nation has paid for day 2 tests turns out to be paying some unknown Tory MP and then by chance they get favourable contracts. It may not be the case that Randox are involved with the day 2 testing because of this affair, however, people know Randox as a company and tend to already resent having to give them £50 each every time they go on holiday.

    This, IMO, is going to hurt the most. The perception that Randox are able to rip us off directly because they paid some Tory MP to enable them to do so. I don't actually think the government contracts stuff hurts as much as people think. If it was some unknown company involved the party could probably just ride it out and just point at the COVID data two weeks from now and declare victory over it to change the subject. As it stands people are still booking tests with this company they heard on the news that was paying some MP in the Tory party. Everyday this continues the worse it gets for the Tories.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the day 2 testing requirement is quietly dropped soon so the name Randox disappears into obscurity again.

    Yes, I dropped the company a note, politely worded but saying that if I had known that my summer payment to them was helping to fund a disgraced Tory MP then I would have looked somewhere else.

    Hopefully if the company gets a few of those they might reconsider the wisdom of such associations. Despite the lucrative contracts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    edited November 8
    TimT said:

    kinabalu said:

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Yes I ignore the negatives, because the experts I know have always previously advised to do so.
    You shouldn't ignore them. Sometimes a person's vote will be driven by what they dislike if they dislike it enough.
    Exhibit 1: Trump
    The Democrats could have a massive long term problem if the white rural vote continues to inexorably polarise toward the GOP as it seems to have done further in Virginia and New Jersey whilst the suburbs take a balanced view on things.
    When you add that to the gaming of the systems that the GOP are far more willing to undertake compared to the Dems...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806

    Here's some mnemonics in a language the cultured PB Geniuses are sure to understand.


    Keir Enjoys Italian Riesling

    Redhead Angela: Your Nice Expensive Rioja

    Pour A Tempranillo, Eat Reblochon, Says Owen Nightly

    Thanks Abobanazina :wink:

    Anabobazina never accepts bad or botched and zero intelligence namespelling attempts?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432

    Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.

    I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?


    Yes, it is. WTF is going on there? Surely this isn't real.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210

    There was a recent Health Foundation report that estimated the average number of years of life lost from a COVID death was 10.

    So at excess deaths of ~120k then that's ~1.2 million lost years of life.

    That's the equivalent of a single week of restrictions. Just one week, matches every single death through the entire pandemic to date.
    But that's not the correct comparison. Those were the deaths we had with restrictions. You need to compare against the deaths there would have been without restrictions. That number has to be estimated, but it's certainly far higher than the deaths we did see.

    (This is leaving aside whether your formula for the severity of restrictions is valid.)
    Yes we had restrictions but we lifted them months ago.

    The question was whether it was appropriate to still have restrictions and the point being that the UK is one of the only countries to have come out of the pandemic without any legal restrictions anymore already.
    If you say the best performance is determined by dropping all legal restrictions, then the UK has among the best performances. However, it seems apparent that no-one else is particularly convinced that's the right criterion.

    In order to convince people of that criterion, you had moved on to an argument based on numbers. Great... except your numbers are wrong. Do you wish to engage with that and come back with numbers that are right?

    Also, you never answered my question about Portugal? Has Portugal done best on the War of Drugs by dropping the most legal restrictions?
  • pingping Posts: 1,409
    edited November 8
    Well well.

    I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).

    I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.

    I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.
  • Cookie said:

    Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.

    I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?


    Yes, it is. WTF is going on there? Surely this isn't real.
    It is real, see my post at 2.07pm for Fabricant's explanation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 8
    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    kinabalu said:

    Incredible that Boris is still beating Keir on satisfaction, even this week. 34% versus 29%

    When are Labour going to realise they've got a dead horse leading the party and take action?

    You ignore the negatives. Johnson net -33 Starmer -21
    Yes I ignore the negatives, because the experts I know have always previously advised to do so.
    You shouldn't ignore them. Sometimes a person's vote will be driven by what they dislike if they dislike it enough.
    Exhibit 1: Trump
    The Democrats could have a massive long term problem if the white rural vote continues to inexorably polarise toward the GOP as it seems to have done further in Virginia and New Jersey whilst the suburbs take a balanced view on things.
    When you add that to the gaming of the systems that the GOP are far more willing to undertake compared to the Dems...
    Even in 2020 Trump won 57% of the rural vote.

    It was Biden winning the Suburbs 50% to 48% for Trump which won him the Presidency.

    Now another candidate other than Trump may be able to win the suburbs for the GOP again, as Youngkin did in Virginia.

    However there is little evidence the suburbs will back Trump again yet
  • ping said:

    Well well.

    I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).

    I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.

    I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.

    At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.

    We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,096
    IanB2 said:

    I see the Cambridge Union Society has got itself into bother for last week’s debate during which historian/broadcaster Andrew Graham-Dixon made various racist and anti-Semitic comments, his performance including a lengthy Hitler impression.

    Rather bizarrely, within the society’s lengthy explanation and apology sent out to all members, they have included a link to the video just in case anyone wants to watch it for themselves.

    If you don't mind me saying so I think your wording is inaccurate he was quoting someone else making "various racist and anti-Semitic comments" via an impersonation. Not making that distinction is where a lot of our cancel culture problems arise. It is as though words are being invested with absolute meaning and absolute taboos erected thereby overthrowing 300 years of intellectual progress.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    The Progressive Unionist Party, which is politically aligned to the paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force, has said there is "no basis" for unionists to continue to support Northern Ireland's Good Friday peace agreement.
    The PUP said the consent principle, which is central to the 1998 accord, has been undermined by Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol.
    Aside from the protocol, party leader Billy Hutchinson said the peace process flowing from the agreement had not faithfully observed the text of the accord and had instead led to an incremental weakening of the Union by delivering repeated concessions to nationalists.


    https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-11-08/pup-says-no-basis-for-unionists-to-continue-to-support-good-friday-agreement
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,356
    I still think that when Boris's wheels come off they will come off bigly, but that it is too early to say that this is it. I think it depends on how outstandingly Labour play the next bit of the contest.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.

    I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?


    2018 called and want their story back.

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1017771006990090245
    Ha!

    Jagraj Singh Dhami
    @jagrajdhami
    Replying to
    @Mike_Fabricant
    So had you been alive during the 1940's and worked in Germany, you would also have a Nazi flag displayed?



    James Aitkenhead
    @MrPeeled
    Replying to
    @jagrajdhami
    and
    @Mike_Fabricant
    Great to finally see the left equating the Soviet Union flag with the Nazi flag!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,668
    edited November 8
    Cookie said:

    Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.

    I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?


    Yes, it is. WTF is going on there? Surely this isn't real.
    Places he visited in the 1980s apparently, not an endorsement.

    Though I'm not sure a trip to Wales is something to write home about.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,189

    There was a recent Health Foundation report that estimated the average number of years of life lost from a COVID death was 10.

    So at excess deaths of ~120k then that's ~1.2 million lost years of life.

    That's the equivalent of a single week of restrictions. Just one week, matches every single death through the entire pandemic to date.
    But that's not the correct comparison. Those were the deaths we had with restrictions. You need to compare against the deaths there would have been without restrictions. That number has to be estimated, but it's certainly far higher than the deaths we did see.

    (This is leaving aside whether your formula for the severity of restrictions is valid.)
    Yes we had restrictions but we lifted them months ago.

    The question was whether it was appropriate to still have restrictions and the point being that the UK is one of the only countries to have come out of the pandemic without any legal restrictions anymore already.
    If you say the best performance is determined by dropping all legal restrictions, then the UK has among the best performances. However, it seems apparent that no-one else is particularly convinced that's the right criterion.

    In order to convince people of that criterion, you had moved on to an argument based on numbers. Great... except your numbers are wrong. Do you wish to engage with that and come back with numbers that are right?

    Also, you never answered my question about Portugal? Has Portugal done best on the War of Drugs by dropping the most legal restrictions?
    The numbers aren't wrong, you may not like them but that doesn't make them wrong.

    Yes Portugal absolutely have by a long way done better on the "War of Drugs", as have the Netherlands, Canada and other nations. We should be legalising drugs and treating it as a health and economics issue, not a law and order one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    "Number 10 doesn't understand how Parliament works, and Boris Johnson is not a House of Commons man," says Conservative MP Tim Loughton

    "Last week was a car crash," he says on vote on Parliamentary standards, "we need some more experience"


    http://bbc.in/3BXe6bg #PoliticsLive https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1457698228200148995/video/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402

    The Progressive Unionist Party, which is politically aligned to the paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force, has said there is "no basis" for unionists to continue to support Northern Ireland's Good Friday peace agreement.
    The PUP said the consent principle, which is central to the 1998 accord, has been undermined by Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol.
    Aside from the protocol, party leader Billy Hutchinson said the peace process flowing from the agreement had not faithfully observed the text of the accord and had instead led to an incremental weakening of the Union by delivering repeated concessions to nationalists.


    https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-11-08/pup-says-no-basis-for-unionists-to-continue-to-support-good-friday-agreement

    Have we had any recent NI polls ?

    The Unionist vote looks up for grabs at the next NI and Westminster elections.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432
    edited November 8

    Cookie said:

    Interesting selection of flags in Fabricant's office.

    I think it's the Grand Union flag on the left, and is that the old South African flag between the Welsh flag and the Soviet Union flag?


    Yes, it is. WTF is going on there? Surely this isn't real.
    Places he visited in the 1980s apparently, not an endorsement.

    Though I'm not sure a trip to Wales is something to write home about.
    Seems a little arbitrary. And also seems unlikely that he only visited four places in the 80s, two of which were highly controversial and one was the least controversial destination imaginable.
    And it doesn't explain the Grand Union flag - presumably he didn't go there in the 80s?
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    ping said:

    Well well.

    I thought it would be a few more months before we saw consistent labour leads (certainly by May next year, when the cost of living crisis really kick in).

    I guess the lesson is not to underestimate Boris’ incompetence.

    I expect this week (or perhaps next, after COP26 winds up) we’ll get displacement activity. Which means pouring fuel on the brexit fire. It might work.

    At work we have upgraded our estimation of a UK recession to severe in 2023 if the NI issue escalates.

    We trigger Article XVI and the EU responds with their own escalation.
    Aren't the EU very restricted in what they can (legally*) do were we to trigger Article XVI

    *this doesn't mean the French won't do stupid things at their borders mainly because they are the French and just can.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    edited November 8

    Here's some mnemonics in a language the cultured PB Geniuses are sure to understand.


    Keir Enjoys Italian Riesling

    Redhead Angela: Your Nice Expensive Rioja

    Pour A Tempranillo, Eat Reblochon, Says Owen Nightly

    Boris Often Revels In Sleaze.
    Ed: Dull, Downbeat And Vacuous Every Year?

    (Is that too mean? I'm supposed to be a former LD with continued LD sympathies!)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158
    edited November 8

    IanB2 said:

    I see the Cambridge Union Society has got itself into bother for last week’s debate during which historian/broadcaster Andrew Graham-Dixon made various racist and anti-Semitic comments, his performance including a lengthy Hitler impression.

    Rather bizarrely, within the society’s lengthy explanation and apology sent out to all members, they have included a link to the video just in case anyone wants to watch it for themselves.

    If you don't mind me saying so I think your wording is inaccurate he was quoting someone else making "various racist and anti-Semitic comments" via an impersonation. Not making that distinction is where a lot of our cancel culture problems arise. It is as though words are being invested with absolute meaning and absolute taboos erected thereby overthrowing 300 years of intellectual progress.
    It's an interesting one. IMV his parody was taking the mickey out of Hitler, and not in any way condoning him. But the use of the slightly more acceptable form of the N-word (*), and the reference to Jews, were certainly in bad taste. Which knowingly or unknowingly, might have been part of his point ...

    It's certainly not as bad as the headline made it seem.

    (*) Is it slightly more acceptable? for instance, would I get in trouble on PB for using it - not that I intend to.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    stodge said:

    Golly, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking going on on this thread.

    Could be worse - there's been an awful lot of people saying none of this would hurt the Prime Minister and he'll be re-elected comfortably in 2024.

    There's also those who say we don't focus enough on how bad the opposition parties are.
    Its both , the Govt is crap and the opposition is awful. Dontcha ya just love democracy.
This discussion has been closed.