As we pointed out here the September CONHome Cabinet rankings seemed to be a good indicator of who would get sacked in the re-shuffle and who would do well. We have now got the latest figures which once again have Liz Truss right at the top with Grant Shapps now taking bottom place with Patel not far above.
Do we know what their relationship is like?
That would be a true Machiavellian move - getting rid of a rival and boosting his support in the party at the same time.
Failure to sack Cressida Dick, and to stop the Channel boat crossings.
Her reception will be interesting especially on cross channel migrants
Only 27 fuel tanker drivers from the EU have applied to work in Britain under the government’s emergency scheme to tackle the petrol crisis, ministers have been told.
It means only a fraction of the 300 visas available for HGV drivers in the fuel industry are set to be taken up in a setback to efforts to replenish supplies.
I think Truss is more likely a decent trading bet than a real favourite for the leadership.
Here's how it's gonna play out in 2024:
Johnson narrowly fails to achieve a majority. Starmer cobbles together a 'government of losers'. Johnson resigns. JRM elected Tory leader. Starmer calls a 2nd election.
Tory's toast or Tories toast?
I left that room utterly convinced that she could win a two horse race.
I see there's a risk that she doesn't make it that far though.
I left that room convinced that she could be a real contender.
The only fruitcake or hack ahead of Zahawi is Mogg.
The clear aim of the new migration system is not to allow migration. Hence all the comments over the last few days about the need to transition the economy. But rhetoric doesn't put fuel in petrol tanks or turkeys on the Christmas table, so better use the new migration system.
The problem is that by making it 5,000 only and fuck off at Christmas, we are being shunned. Saying "we need a painful transition, suck it up for Britain" would be one thing. But instead they panicked, tried to open the door and nobody is coming. Which makes it their fault. Had they toed the line and said no, they could have tried to blame industry. Now they can't as they have accepted that people are needed.
No wonder he quoted the Muppet Show. They really are.
330,000 children were victims of sex abuse within France’s Catholic Church since 1950
Its a problem for Remoaners who wanted freedom of movement restored.
Its a problem for employers who wanted a return to people being shipped like a commodity in a 21st century triangular trade.
For those who want employers to improve both pay and conditions for their employees - and conditions are reportedly just as critical as pay - this is not a problem.
The 'door' to bringing people in as a solution has been opened and behind that door was a goat not a car. Time for those who were calling for movement as the solution to switch.
Deal with pay and conditions. Quit whining.
Watched the first episode of the New Labour documentary last night. Contrast between scope and scale of change back then, and cautious incrementalism under display from Keir Starmer, was brutal.
Yep. Starmer only scratching the edges so far.
It is not a question of whether this high wage, high price, high tax economy is a good or bad thing; we can discuss that later when we look at the economics of such a strategy.
It is a question of whether people realise that moving to a high wage, high price, high tax economy involves some "can't get to there from here" adjustments. They might be painful; we shall see. We will also see whether the govt can see through the pain without caving so we can get to a high wage, high...well you get the point.
That has shown tremendous talent, while Barnier etc have moved on he is stood there having nearly finished cleaning up the horlicks that Robbins and May made of the whole thing agreeing to deal with NI first.
As for Truss - her performance over the past couple of years has been excellent, just excellent. She did more for our international relations than Raab ever did - and her predecessor Liam Fox too who failed to sign the rollover deals she managed to get.
Quite simply there are too many cars, too many houses, too many people. For 20 years the council have allowed houses to be built and built and built along the Rochdale > Littleborough road to the point where its now ludicrously busy.
New houses means you need new roads. New schools. New infrastructure. But there has been none of that. Just people piled on top of people so that you can barely move. Yes I know my perspective has shifted having moved to the country. But at which point do councils have a requirement to actually stop and plan rather than just let developments go up everywhere?
I have some dim recollection that many of the the worst victims of modern slavery come/came from non-EU countries, not entirely surprisingly (i.e. as illegals, their gangmasters had an automatic hold on them).
And here is the question, will the people be patient to give this change the time it needs or will those wanting to go back to free movement from the EU actually win through and rejoin the single market
Do you not see the flagrant hypocrisy? How can you have "stop and plan" if there's free movement? You can't "plan" when ten million people net have arrived in a few years.
What’s Starmer’s Clause 4?
It leaves the Foreign Secretary with the task of cancelling their holiday to look impotent in the face of the latest international crisis. Though at least Truss will probably be capable enough to do both parts of that job, unlike Raab, who was only able to manage the latter.
If she manages to make more of the job and maintains a strong positive profile, then she will have done well.
There isn't time to be pratting around with visas etc, it isn't happening. The door has been opened and there's nothing there.
Companies that want stock on shelves need to pay whatever it takes. Any companies that fail to do so, hopefully they lose profits and market share to those that do. Consumers will take their hard earned money to whichever company manages to have stock available - Amazon don't seem to have any issues with availability.
Given that he has been correctly pointedly personal at them, does anyone know what the EPCs are on Mogg's Houses?
(These things are overwhelmingly public,)
Employers thinking they can evade paying a good wage by just ship people over in shitty conditions instead . . . you don't see the parallel or issue with that?
So the test will be how many people will be happy to suffer the consequences of this transition. The promise was jam tomorrow, the offer has now been changed to an empty jam jar.
The reason why the botched visas scheme is a problem is simple. In doing so the government has recognised that this transition is going to be bloody awful. But in not offering enough visas or visas on terms that anyone will accept it can't just blame industry who say "give us people" as the government agree they need people.
They should do one of two things. Hold the line. Yes this will be a rough winter, yes there will shortages and outages and less stuff available will cost you more, but the jam we promised is coming. OR, try and pass the blame for the rough winter onto greedy business leaders whose fault it is. They appear to be riding both horses.
However, if Boris loses the next general election and Starmer becomes PM, probably of a minority Labour government then others will come into play too. In particular Jacob Rees-Mogg, now on a +66% approval rating in the ConHome Tory party members survey even ahead of Rishi, would be a contender to be leader of the Conservative party and leader of the opposition to a PM Starmer. Ben Wallace must also be a contender as well in such circumstances given his solid performance as Defence Secretary and popularity with the membership
This Christmas we will be together as a family once more and to be honest if we cannot get turkey then we will find an alternative
It most certainly will be a joyous Christmas no matter if a few other things are unavailable as well
According to the media, she won every election she ever lost.
I don't get their inflexibility on these things. Not just the labour force where they are riding both horses and in danger of falling between them into the mud. Javid is refusing to use private hospitals to clear the NHS backlog. Why not? Public money paid to private firms to deliver public service that the monolith has failed to do.
You'd think they'd be all over this. Blair did it without hesitation - do what works when in crisis. Are the government really trying to pretend there is no NHS crisis the same way they are denying there is a fuel crisis or an energy crisis or a manufacturing crisis or a logistics crisis?
Does rather remind me of "nothing done in X months" type of complaints, when the minimal process actually takes X+3 months. Often happens.
How many times have you robotically parroted that same message? She's not even a part of the conversation?
But employers were facilitating the shipping. There were companies who were not even bothering to look in this country for staff as it was cheaper and easier to fly in staff from abroad and given them shitty beds in crowded flats and they had to work in conditions not exactly far from modern day slavery.
That's why now that such migration has been halted the largest squealing is from employers who can't get away with shipping people like commodities instead of from people themselves.
Blair’s Clause 4 charges were serious actual policy, that he had to do the hard work of selling to his own party.
Instead it is relying on people not noticing or caring at the planning stage (now), and also on people blindly parroting the strategy of saying this bug is now a feature (eg. @PT).
Tomorrow will come, however and, as the oldest economic/mathematical rule states, you can't get to there from here.
Especially when employers have 'bonded' the people they've shipped in putting them in debt to pay for their shipping transport, accomodation etc and then make them work off their debts.
You're in complete denial if you think modern day slavery doesn't exist and that free movement didn't facilitate it. And the reason all the complaints now are coming from employers and not people show who is suffering now the flow of modern day slavery has been brought to a halt.
"Ah but an endless labour pool allows people to be exploited". Yes and no - a restricted labour pool also offers the same opportunity of the legislative and societal framework allows it to be so. Have workers of whatever origin unionised and protected by working time regulations and HSE laws and the exploitation doesn't have to be there. It isn't elsewhere in western Europe with FOM.
Are we in journos can't count territory? Or just reporting of very early numbers?
Nor was he was committed to Trot politics as Starmer was in less opportunistic days.7
Starmer is Kinnock, not Blair.
I hear plenty of people complaining about not being able to find petrol or products in the shops.
It's the lack of immigration controls, which you have justified to me on this site, that has been the problem.
Let big companies only pay 19% tax if they are a living wage employer. If they maintain no forced waiving of working time rules. If they give proper maternity and sick pay. That would have had a huge impact on pay and working conditions.
Instead we have people like Johnson triumphing the slashing of both corporation taxes and corporate responsibility, then working why companies are paying low wages and imposing poor conditions as direct result of their own policies to deliver exactly that.
This is a profoundly illiberal government that is systematically taking rights away from UK citizens - freedom of movement is just one.
That withdrawal was only a month ago, but we seem to have forgotten all about it. Doubt the Afghans have.
"The central reason why Patel's stock is not as high as it once was among Conservative activists is the perception that her department is failing: that she is unable to prevent more people coming here on boats in search of a better life, that we have de facto decriminalised most crimes other than murder and speeding, that the Metropolitan Police is poorly run, and so on.
Now, the wheel of politics has plenty of turns and it's possible that this time next year we're once again talking about how much activists and MPs love Priti Patel. But the concern among some MPs who believe - rightly in my view - that Patel was integral to their 2019 re-election is that the fall in the Home Secretary's stock among party activists is the first sign that the government's advantage as far as crime and security is concerned might once again be about to come under serious threat in the country as a whole."
Modern day slavery absolutely does exist.
If you think it doesn't, you need to educate yourself.
But employers paying to ship people around like they are commodities and putting people into debt to pay for them to be shipped around . . . I don't view that as part of the free market.