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The German election looks very tight – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 26 in General
The German election looks very tight – politicalbetting.com

German election exit polls show a dead heat in the race to succeed Angela Merkel https://t.co/4IZ1jXX9yG

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440
    second Like CDU or CSU (TBC)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,004
    They really don’t want to get rid of Merkel, do they? How many months of negotiations to follow on from the results?
  • Sandpit said:

    They really don’t want to get rid of Merkel, do they? How many months of negotiations to follow on from the results?

    Clinging to nurse ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,543
    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,543
    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    They may win enough FPTP to get in anyways. So I hear.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,878
    Could be singing this for quite a lot longer.

    https://youtu.be/RcZn2-bGXqQ
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,606
    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,586
    Sandpit said:

    They really don’t want to get rid of Merkel, do they? How many months of negotiations to follow on from the results?

    Clearly neither the left block of SPD, Greens and Linke nor the CDU/CSU and FDP block on the centre right have the seats needed to form a majority government.

    So Merkel will stay while the horsetrading goes on.

    Lashcet speaking now saying clearly his party cannot be satisfied with the results but parties must come together to form a stable government and that the votes his party did get were clearly to prevent a government formed by the left
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,163
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    They may win enough FPTP to get in anyways. So I hear.
    Yes I think they will win at least 3 constituencies and meet the threshold that way, but have to wait for confirmation either way
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,878
    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    Yes, according to one of the election shows the total number of MPs will be about 35 fewer if they go below 5%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,640

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,543

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Jerry Sadowitz did.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511
    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28
  • eekeek Posts: 15,862
    edited September 26

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    People did, but he was too well connected for anything to get anywhere.

    The other PB knew about Jimmy from about day zero as the rev (goatboy) spent a lot of time providing tales…
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440
    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    Just what I was thinking, if it terns out to be 4.9% I think would mean the 'Left' party don't get any list seats in parliament. one caveat, I think if they get 3 directly elected seats, then they are back in with list seats, I don't know how likely it is that they will get any directly elected seats, anybody know if this is likely?

    I don't think it changes things much ether way for a coalition prospect, It would make a CSU & FDP & AfD coalition numerically possible, but I think this has already been ruled out, or at least is improbable. Unless the Greens start being too ambitions/greedy, in which case the threat of this coalition might contain there ambitions.
  • If the ARD projection is correct (it does take account of postal votes, based on the experience of the last state elections), the CDU/CSU will have the most seats, albeit by the tiniest of margins. If that happens, both the CDU/CSU and the SDP will be able to argue that they 'won' the election and therefore deserve to form the next government: the former by total seat number, the latter by the shift in seats and probably the popular vote (again, by a tiny margin).

    The FDP and Greens are in an extraordinarily strong position.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    Pure anecdata but I drove the whole M25 today (basically half one way and then the other half coming back from a day trip) and most of the service stations had either one of petrol/diesel only or nothing. The electric signs on the motorway were telling you so people didn't waste time going in.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,538
    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    Just what I was thinking, if it terns out to be 4.9% I think would mean the 'Left' party don't get any list seats in parliament. one caveat, I think if they get 3 directly elected seats, then they are back in with list seats, I don't know how likely it is that they will get any directly elected seats, anybody know if this is likely?

    I don't think it changes things much ether way for a coalition prospect, It would make a CSU & FDP & AfD coalition numerically possible, but I think this has already been ruled out, or at least is improbable. Unless the Greens start being too ambitions/greedy, in which case the threat of this coalition might contain there ambitions.
    All parties (apart from FDP) have their strong areas, so It is possible that Linke can achieve 3 seats. The FDP is too spread out, like our Libdems.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,878
    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,538
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    so much for 200.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,640
    edited September 26
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    No, it is only 200 of 8000. A PB Tory told me so, so it must be true.
  • MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    Interesting.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,163
    Yes it's designed to be very proportional. But how seats are allocated is a bit complicated. So it doesn't surprise me that, if very close, a party could end up with an extra seat with a fraction fewer votes than the other party. If this turns out to be significant, in terms of who gets to eventually form the government (which perhaps it won't at all, I don't think there's anything to say the largest group gets first dibs on trying to form a coalition, and the party with more votes will have at least a big a moral claim) then there could theoretically be further interventions from the constitutional court to make sure it doesn't happen again if someone complains.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    I feel the "attitudes have changed" line to be an enormous attempt at excuse making by previous generations. Sure, the point when teenagers start engaging in relations with each other is the sort of thing where cultural mores can reasonably vary. But middle aged adults molesting little kids is just so obviously an appalling moral evil. The self-evidence of how horrific it is should inflame anyone with a moral compass whether in the modern day, the mid-20th century British establishment, the European Middle Ages or early Islamic Arabia. It's just disgusting, people that do it in any age are monsters, and people that knew about it and didn't speak out are terrible human beings.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,630
    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    Just what I was thinking, if it terns out to be 4.9% I think would mean the 'Left' party don't get any list seats in parliament. one caveat, I think if they get 3 directly elected seats, then they are back in with list seats, I don't know how likely it is that they will get any directly elected seats, anybody know if this is likely?

    I don't think it changes things much ether way for a coalition prospect, It would make a CSU & FDP & AfD coalition numerically possible, but I think this has already been ruled out, or at least is improbable. Unless the Greens start being too ambitions/greedy, in which case the threat of this coalition might contain there ambitions.
    How many constituency seats did Linke get last time? I don't seem to be able to find any from a casual Google search. (Thuringia was their best State, percentage-wise, but they didn't get any there last time.)
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    err is that BREAKING? I thought we know that for at least a day?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,722
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    No, it is only 200 of 8000. A PB Tory told me so, so it must be true.
    That was yesterday, this is today.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,878

    MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    Interesting.
    Indeed. It's a decision that's comes 8 years too late because Dave and George decided to get in bed with China.

    I do wonder what the subsidies for this will look like and what share of the liability the state will take on. RR isn't in any kind of financial position to take on all of the liability of a civilian nuclear programme.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    Just what I was thinking, if it terns out to be 4.9% I think would mean the 'Left' party don't get any list seats in parliament. one caveat, I think if they get 3 directly elected seats, then they are back in with list seats, I don't know how likely it is that they will get any directly elected seats, anybody know if this is likely?

    I don't think it changes things much ether way for a coalition prospect, It would make a CSU & FDP & AfD coalition numerically possible, but I think this has already been ruled out, or at least is improbable. Unless the Greens start being too ambitions/greedy, in which case the threat of this coalition might contain there ambitions.
    How many constituency seats did Linke get last time? I don't seem to be able to find any from a casual Google search. (Thuringia was their best State, percentage-wise, but they didn't get any there last time.)
    5, according to someone I saw on Twitter. Apparently 4 were in Berlin which is their stronghold (presumably the former East parts?) and they are very likely to win at least 3 of those again.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,241
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,640
    edited September 26
    Aslan said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    I feel the "attitudes have changed" line to be an enormous attempt at excuse making by previous generations. Sure, the point when teenagers start engaging in relations with each other is the sort of thing where cultural mores can reasonably vary. But middle aged adults molesting little kids is just so obviously an appalling moral evil. The self-evidence of how horrific it is should inflame anyone with a moral compass whether in the modern day, the mid-20th century British establishment, the European Middle Ages or early Islamic Arabia. It's just disgusting, people that do it in any age are monsters, and people that knew about it and didn't speak out are terrible human beings.
    I think that revisionism. Just as people in the Seventies thought racist jokes acceptable, there was societal knowledge in the form of jokes about vicars and choir boys, or scoutmasters that made it part of the culture. It wasn't approved of but everyone knew it happened, times have changed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,606

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    so much for 200.....
    It didn’t smell right, did it. At least refilling will be happening, as there is no blockade.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    Interesting.
    Indeed. It's a decision that's comes 8 years too late because Dave and George decided to get in bed with China.

    I do wonder what the subsidies for this will look like and what share of the liability the state will take on. RR isn't in any kind of financial position to take on all of the liability of a civilian nuclear programme.
    It doesn't require the eye-watering up-front investment in a single site, or a tiny handful of sites, though. It can be done in a much more incremental way, and the technology is pretty well established.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511

    At least refilling will be happening, as there is no blockade.

    Apart from where it's not. Which is the problem
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,538

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    I'm not sure he was like that was he?.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    5%? That's a nailbiter, isn't that the threshold?

    Just what I was thinking, if it terns out to be 4.9% I think would mean the 'Left' party don't get any list seats in parliament. one caveat, I think if they get 3 directly elected seats, then they are back in with list seats, I don't know how likely it is that they will get any directly elected seats, anybody know if this is likely?

    I don't think it changes things much ether way for a coalition prospect, It would make a CSU & FDP & AfD coalition numerically possible, but I think this has already been ruled out, or at least is improbable. Unless the Greens start being too ambitions/greedy, in which case the threat of this coalition might contain there ambitions.
    How many constituency seats did Linke get last time? I don't seem to be able to find any from a casual Google search. (Thuringia was their best State, percentage-wise, but they didn't get any there last time.)
    I don't know why I did not google myself. It seams that in 2017 'Left Party' got 5 directly elected seats:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2017_German_federal_election

    But, that time they also got 8.7% of the vote, so to me it I would guess that they might not hold them all. Again nail bighting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,722
    Scott_xP said:

    At least refilling will be happening, as there is no blockade.

    Apart from where it's not. Which is the problem
    No, the problem is the 500% increase in demand. If people weren't panic buying, this wouldn't be an issue.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,777
    edited September 26
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    People did, but he was too well connected for anything to get anywhere.

    The other PB knew about Jimmy from about day zero as the rev (goatboy) spent a lot of time providing tales…
    Louis Theroux made an excellent programme about Jimmy Saville after he died, where Theroux went back to visit people he'd met making an earlier programme with Saville.

    Looking back it was clearer how Savile would push boundaries, manipulate people, and generally be a hard person to read in a sort of "is he serious or joking?" way. I'm sure lots of people thought Savile was odd, very odd even, but I don't think that vast numbers of people really knew what he was like.

    It's worth watching if it's available online somewhere, Theroux makes it clear that he made many mistakes in making the original programme, and really ended up looking like a bit of a fool with hindsight. Looking back at Savile knowing what is now known he comes across as downright sociopathic.

    Louis Theroux: Savile is on Netflix.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,606
    Scott_xP said:

    At least refilling will be happening, as there is no blockade.

    Apart from where it's not. Which is the problem
    Clearly it will be impossible to refill all of them immediately. But the point about full tanks still stands - if you filled up but don’t intend to drive, you won’t need to do it again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511
    RobD said:

    No, the problem is the 500% increase in demand. If people weren't panic buying, this wouldn't be an issue.

    It was an issue before the panic. That's the problem. There were not enough drivers. There were shortages and closures.

    Due to Brexit...
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735
    Foxy said:

    Aslan said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    I feel the "attitudes have changed" line to be an enormous attempt at excuse making by previous generations. Sure, the point when teenagers start engaging in relations with each other is the sort of thing where cultural mores can reasonably vary. But middle aged adults molesting little kids is just so obviously an appalling moral evil. The self-evidence of how horrific it is should inflame anyone with a moral compass whether in the modern day, the mid-20th century British establishment, the European Middle Ages or early Islamic Arabia. It's just disgusting, people that do it in any age are monsters, and people that knew about it and didn't speak out are terrible human beings.
    I think that revisionism. Just as people in the Seventies thought racist jokes acceptable, there was societal knowledge in the form of jokes about vicars and choir boys, or scoutmasters that made it part of the culture. It wasn't approved of but everyone knew it happened, times have changed.
    But there's a case for joking about awful things. Jokes were made about Hitler by troops in WW2 who knew the suffering he caused. I can completely get the idea of how someone can joke about something without realizing how much it can upset someone affected by that thing. There's a big difference between joking about something and not reporting it when you see a specific incident in the reality. I just feel like all of these people trying to excuse it know they have done wrong and are assuage a guilty conscience.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,722
    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    No, the problem is the 500% increase in demand. If people weren't panic buying, this wouldn't be an issue.

    It was an issue before the panic. That's the problem. There were not enough drivers. There were shortages and closures.

    Due to Brexit...
    It was described as a "manageable issue" by the chair of the Petrol Retailers Association in the very article you linked. It's only the overreaction of the media that set off the mass panic.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,097
    I wonder if in the future any malicious types or state actors will follow the example set by our glorious media and create panics based on (initially) false rumours of shortages?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,241
    glw said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    People did, but he was too well connected for anything to get anywhere.

    The other PB knew about Jimmy from about day zero as the rev (goatboy) spent a lot of time providing tales…
    Louis Theroux made an excellent programme about Jimmy Saville after he died, where Theroux went back to visit people he'd met making an earlier programme with Saville.

    Looking back it was clearer how Savile would push boundaries, manipulate people, and generally be a hard person to read in a sort of "is he serious or joking?" way. I'm sure lots of people thought Savile was odd, very odd even, but I don't think that vast numbers of people really knew what he was like.

    It's worth watching if it's available online somewhere, Theroux makes it clear that he made many mistakes in making the original programme, and really ended up looking like a bit of a fool with hindsight. Looking back at Savile knowing what is now known he comes across as downright sociopathic.
    I totally agree with that.

    However: we should not get into a place where someone 'odd' or 'weird' is automatically distrusted as a potential threat. Most of us are 'odd' or 'weird' in some way: after all, some of us obsessively post on a political betting website. ;) We all have quirks and idiosyncrasies that others may laugh at.

    Odd and weird does not equate to danger. Plenty of dangerous people appear relatively normal, hiding in plain sight - until the truth comes out.

    The problem with Savile wasn't that he was odd or weird. It was the fact he was given massive amounts of power - how the heck did he get 24 hour unsupervised access to hospital wards, ffs? Why didn't someone query that?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735
    Could someone explain the main differences between the SPD and the CDU in this election? I understand the broad philosophical background but both seem so mushy centre ground these days it is hard to know why voters would care who gets in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,535

    glw said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    People did, but he was too well connected for anything to get anywhere.

    The other PB knew about Jimmy from about day zero as the rev (goatboy) spent a lot of time providing tales…
    Louis Theroux made an excellent programme about Jimmy Saville after he died, where Theroux went back to visit people he'd met making an earlier programme with Saville.

    Looking back it was clearer how Savile would push boundaries, manipulate people, and generally be a hard person to read in a sort of "is he serious or joking?" way. I'm sure lots of people thought Savile was odd, very odd even, but I don't think that vast numbers of people really knew what he was like.

    It's worth watching if it's available online somewhere, Theroux makes it clear that he made many mistakes in making the original programme, and really ended up looking like a bit of a fool with hindsight. Looking back at Savile knowing what is now known he comes across as downright sociopathic.
    I totally agree with that.

    However: we should not get into a place where someone 'odd' or 'weird' is automatically distrusted as a potential threat. Most of us are 'odd' or 'weird' in some way: after all, some of us obsessively post on a political betting website. ;) We all have quirks and idiosyncrasies that others may laugh at.

    Odd and weird does not equate to danger. Plenty of dangerous people appear relatively normal, hiding in plain sight - until the truth comes out.

    The problem with Savile wasn't that he was odd or weird. It was the fact he was given massive amounts of power - how the heck did he get 24 hour unsupervised access to hospital wards, ffs? Why didn't someone query that?
    Because he raised huge amounts of money for charideeeee, mate.

    How could someone doing such immense public good be questioned?
  • Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    I'm not sure he was like that was he?.
    I think with Peel it was more that he didn't ask the proper questions when adoring groupies threw themselves at him.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,097
    Saville always made my flesh creep but like most of the general public had no idea of the level of his depravity. From my recollection Theroux looked scared and intimidated at several point in filming Saville. He seems to have been a powerful personality in one to one situation.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,241

    I wonder if in the future any malicious types or state actors will follow the example set by our glorious media and create panics based on (initially) false rumours of shortages?

    Also: the last couple of years should be a warning sign that our systems are not well set up for extreme events: a small problem can soon become a critical one. We do not rely enough on redundant systems, and cut things to the bone too much.

    I really fear another Carrington event. We're utterly unprepared for a big one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,535

    Saville always made my flesh creep but like most of the general public had no idea of the level of his depravity. From my recollection Theroux looked scared and intimidated at several point in filming Saville. He seems to have been a powerful personality in one to one situation.

    Saville was known to be a person not to cross. He had some heavy mates up north.
  • Foxy said:

    Aslan said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    I feel the "attitudes have changed" line to be an enormous attempt at excuse making by previous generations. Sure, the point when teenagers start engaging in relations with each other is the sort of thing where cultural mores can reasonably vary. But middle aged adults molesting little kids is just so obviously an appalling moral evil. The self-evidence of how horrific it is should inflame anyone with a moral compass whether in the modern day, the mid-20th century British establishment, the European Middle Ages or early Islamic Arabia. It's just disgusting, people that do it in any age are monsters, and people that knew about it and didn't speak out are terrible human beings.
    I think that revisionism. Just as people in the Seventies thought racist jokes acceptable, there was societal knowledge in the form of jokes about vicars and choir boys, or scoutmasters that made it part of the culture. It wasn't approved of but everyone knew it happened, times have changed.
    The big difference is that, in the Seventies and before, the general view was that choir boys or schoolboys being touched up wasn't as harmful to the children as we now regard it, and nor was girls being touched as long as there was no risk of pregnancy. So it's a change in the assessment of the harm done more than anything else.

    A secondary difference was a strong urge to protect institutions. The combination of these two factors is why cases were swept under the carpet.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,557
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    If there was any petrol, you could drive a bus through that spread

    50-85???!!!
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735

    Saville always made my flesh creep but like most of the general public had no idea of the level of his depravity. From my recollection Theroux looked scared and intimidated at several point in filming Saville. He seems to have been a powerful personality in one to one situation.

    Saville was known to be a person not to cross. He had some heavy mates up north.
    And of the course British libel law is designed in the interests of the rich and powerful, so it can be expensive to raise the alarm.
  • Scott_xP said:

    At least refilling will be happening, as there is no blockade.

    Apart from where it's not. Which is the problem
    Clearly it will be impossible to refill all of them immediately. But the point about full tanks still stands - if you filled up but don’t intend to drive, you won’t need to do it again.
    The question is whether the petrol stations can refill their tanks faster than the car drivers empty theirs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,535

    I wonder if in the future any malicious types or state actors will follow the example set by our glorious media and create panics based on (initially) false rumours of shortages?

    Also: the last couple of years should be a warning sign that our systems are not well set up for extreme events: a small problem can soon become a critical one. We do not rely enough on redundant systems, and cut things to the bone too much.

    I really fear another Carrington event. We're utterly unprepared for a big one.
    I have been told that we came very, very close to food distribution collapsing after the Buncefield explosion. But it didn't. Testament to some very smart people in our emergency planning.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,864
    edited September 26
    Aslan said:

    Saville always made my flesh creep but like most of the general public had no idea of the level of his depravity. From my recollection Theroux looked scared and intimidated at several point in filming Saville. He seems to have been a powerful personality in one to one situation.

    Saville was known to be a person not to cross. He had some heavy mates up north.
    And of the course British libel law is designed in the interests of the rich and powerful, so it can be expensive to raise the alarm.
    To close off one avenue we could all start spelling him Savile if we want to minimise the danger of writs from a justifiably disgruntled Mr Saville.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511
    Labour's rule changes have passed. Sir Keir Starmer breathing a big sigh of relief tonight
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1442183851720257544
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511

    Testament to some very smart people in our emergency planning.

    How many of them did Cummings cull?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,864
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    If there was any petrol, you could drive a bus through that spread

    50-85???!!!
    How long do we think before Google Earth satellites become real time? There'd be hours of fun looking for queues.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440
    On Topic:

    Do we know who the '1' is when it lists the results of other party's e.g.


    https://www.google.com/search?q=german+election+exit+polls&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB898GB898&oq=german+election+exit+polls&aqs=chrome..69i57.15228j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    I'm guessing somebody stood in a directly elected seat who is popular enough as an individual to win that one seat outright, but who, or which party? I don't think it will change anything, but just interesting.
  • There was no fuel delivery problem for most of the UK. People have all panic filled their tanks. Unless they are all going panic drive the length of the country then they won't need to refil, and even if they top them off thats only a bit of fuel taken.

    So there will be no fuel crisis this week. Unless there is a new actual shortage of delivery drivers. Which would be quite funny now.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,777

    Saville always made my flesh creep but like most of the general public had no idea of the level of his depravity. From my recollection Theroux looked scared and intimidated at several point in filming Saville. He seems to have been a powerful personality in one to one situation.

    Savile was very good at manipulating people, would push boundaries, confuse people, and generally leave them feeling unbalanced. He got the better of Louis Theroux who is a clever chap himself, and good at disarming people through his false naivety. No doubt Savile could talk his way out of trouble, and get people to bend the rules for him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,878

    I wonder if in the future any malicious types or state actors will follow the example set by our glorious media and create panics based on (initially) false rumours of shortages?

    Also: the last couple of years should be a warning sign that our systems are not well set up for extreme events: a small problem can soon become a critical one. We do not rely enough on redundant systems, and cut things to the bone too much.

    I really fear another Carrington event. We're utterly unprepared for a big one.
    Yes, I was reading some industry stuff on why the gas price spike has hurt the UK so badly on Friday. It said that the UK has got 4 days worth of gas storage facilities which meant there was no choice but to increase prices immediately for gas suppliers who essentially purchase for immediate delivery into short term storage. In Germany they have got 12 weeks worth of gas storage facilities available and that has allowed for companies to fix forwards prices a lot better and ride out the price spike and use cheaper purchased stored gas.

    The UK has got absolutely zero economic resilience. We've decided that paying for redundancy wins less votes than giving old people yet another freebie.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,864
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    If there was any petrol, you could drive a bus through that spread

    50-85???!!!
    You selling or buying?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,557

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    I'm not sure he was like that was he?.
    I think with Peel it was more that he didn't ask the proper questions when adoring groupies threw themselves at him.
    Well he did marry a 15 year old!
  • BigRich said:

    On Topic:

    Do we know who the '1' is when it lists the results of other party's e.g.


    https://www.google.com/search?q=german+election+exit+polls&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB898GB898&oq=german+election+exit+polls&aqs=chrome..69i57.15228j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    I'm guessing somebody stood in a directly elected seat who is popular enough as an individual to win that one seat outright, but who, or which party? I don't think it will change anything, but just interesting.

    It a party representing Danish-speaking people in the north. They are exempt from the 5% rule (this is Germany, don't expect it to be simple!)
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour's rule changes have passed. Sir Keir Starmer breathing a big sigh of relief tonight
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1442183851720257544

    Is this the rules about how the leader is elected?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,557
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    If there was any petrol, you could drive a bus through that spread

    50-85???!!!
    You selling or buying?
    I'd like to buy at 50 and sell at 85 please
  • More shithousery at the Labour conference. https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1442174518215299075
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,543

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    The BBC deserves a heck of a lot of ordure thrown at them over Saville. AFAICR Dame Janet Smith's report into Savile's abuse excoriated them. They employed him; their culture allowed him to abuse people on their premises; their organisational structure meant that abuse that was known to be going on amongst junior staff magically to be unknown to senior staff.

    It stunk.

    Yes, parts of the NHS also came out of it terribly. But the BBC should not be excused. They were central to Savile's power and influence.
    No one is doing that. He had powerful influence in the NHS too. And in various Police Forces, and at high Government level, too. No doubt more places if anyone looked.
    The common factor? They didn't believe victims. And, if they did, it was a bit of a laugh anyways. Which was very much the prevailing attitude. This is the generation which also gave us widespread mindless vandalism, and football hooliganism.
    Should imagine a lot more of the involved will need to be dead before we find it all out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,511
    BigRich said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour's rule changes have passed. Sir Keir Starmer breathing a big sigh of relief tonight
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1442183851720257544

    Is this the rules about how the leader is elected?
    yes
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,241

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    I'm not sure he was like that was he?.
    When he was 26, he married a 15 year old. Who later took her own life.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Peel#Personal_life

    There were also various other accusations. And apparently he had a 'School girl of the year' slot in the seventies ...

    At best, he certainly was not whiter than white.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,862
    MaxPB said:

    I wonder if in the future any malicious types or state actors will follow the example set by our glorious media and create panics based on (initially) false rumours of shortages?

    Also: the last couple of years should be a warning sign that our systems are not well set up for extreme events: a small problem can soon become a critical one. We do not rely enough on redundant systems, and cut things to the bone too much.

    I really fear another Carrington event. We're utterly unprepared for a big one.
    Yes, I was reading some industry stuff on why the gas price spike has hurt the UK so badly on Friday. It said that the UK has got 4 days worth of gas storage facilities which meant there was no choice but to increase prices immediately for gas suppliers who essentially purchase for immediate delivery into short term storage. In Germany they have got 12 weeks worth of gas storage facilities available and that has allowed for companies to fix forwards prices a lot better and ride out the price spike and use cheaper purchased stored gas.

    The UK has got absolutely zero economic resilience. We've decided that paying for redundancy wins less votes than giving old people yet another freebie.
    Blame Centrica who decided there was no profit in storage…
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735

    Foxy said:

    Aslan said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    I feel the "attitudes have changed" line to be an enormous attempt at excuse making by previous generations. Sure, the point when teenagers start engaging in relations with each other is the sort of thing where cultural mores can reasonably vary. But middle aged adults molesting little kids is just so obviously an appalling moral evil. The self-evidence of how horrific it is should inflame anyone with a moral compass whether in the modern day, the mid-20th century British establishment, the European Middle Ages or early Islamic Arabia. It's just disgusting, people that do it in any age are monsters, and people that knew about it and didn't speak out are terrible human beings.
    I think that revisionism. Just as people in the Seventies thought racist jokes acceptable, there was societal knowledge in the form of jokes about vicars and choir boys, or scoutmasters that made it part of the culture. It wasn't approved of but everyone knew it happened, times have changed.
    The big difference is that, in the Seventies and before, the general view was that choir boys or schoolboys being touched up wasn't as harmful to the children as we now regard it, and nor was girls being touched as long as there was no risk of pregnancy. So it's a change in the assessment of the harm done more than anything else.

    A secondary difference was a strong urge to protect institutions. The combination of these two factors is why cases were swept under the carpet.
    I think you are much nearer to the mark on two rather than one. It is pretty obvious that being molested causes substantial suffering to the child, especially repeated, systematic abuse. You have to be an idiot not to realise that.

    There is another factor going on, which people don't want to accept but is the reality. Most people are just not particularly moral. Probably 60-70% of people will do what's in their interest as long as they won't face consequences for doing the immoral thing. Speaking up is a lot of hassle for you if you do it, while being one of many not saying anything is unlikely to create any negative consequences. So people do what's in their own interest and then rationalize their excuses afterwards.

    The only reason things have changed is that the negative consequences of not reporting it has been ramped up. There are now specific laws where authority figures will get into legal trouble for not reporting it, and the media climate now has visibility into these things so you might have your reputation destroyed.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440

    BigRich said:

    On Topic:

    Do we know who the '1' is when it lists the results of other party's e.g.


    https://www.google.com/search?q=german+election+exit+polls&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB898GB898&oq=german+election+exit+polls&aqs=chrome..69i57.15228j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    I'm guessing somebody stood in a directly elected seat who is popular enough as an individual to win that one seat outright, but who, or which party? I don't think it will change anything, but just interesting.

    It a party representing Danish-speaking people in the north. They are exempt from the 5% rule (this is Germany, don't expect it to be simple!)
    Thanks Richard, :)
  • isamisam Posts: 38,557

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    I'm not sure he was like that was he?.
    When he was 26, he married a 15 year old. Who later took her own life.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Peel#Personal_life

    There were also various other accusations. And apparently he had a 'School girl of the year' slot in the seventies ...

    At best, he certainly was not whiter than white.
    They do say he was a champion of raw, young talent
  • More shithousery at the Labour conference. https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1442174518215299075

    I really think this is a golden opportunity for the lib dems, especially in remain areas, to be brave and come out and declare they would join the single market and accept freedom of movement but remain outside the EU
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,543

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    No accident that very generation demands a political system that feather beds them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    If there was any petrol, you could drive a bus through that spread

    50-85???!!!
    Buses run on diesel, though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,640

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    Indeed, his marriage to an underage American has faded into history, alongside his Seventies slot "Schoolgirl of the week". That many of his groupies were young, and indeed underage is not something he has ever hidden, and while she was 15 he did actually marry her.

    http://andywalmsley.blogspot.com/2014/10/peel-reveals.html?m=1

    I think the difference is one of scale, but also of emphasis. Peel had a transparent excellence at spotting new musical trends that transcends his sexual misbehaviour. His evening show in the Eighties was a cornucopia of the brilliant and the avant garde alongside stuff like The Fall, which no matter how much I listen, I cannot get.
  • Saville always made my flesh creep but like most of the general public had no idea of the level of his depravity. From my recollection Theroux looked scared and intimidated at several point in filming Saville. He seems to have been a powerful personality in one to one situation.

    Saville was known to be a person not to cross. He had some heavy mates up north.
    Cyril Smith?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 735
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    The BBC deserves a heck of a lot of ordure thrown at them over Saville. AFAICR Dame Janet Smith's report into Savile's abuse excoriated them. They employed him; their culture allowed him to abuse people on their premises; their organisational structure meant that abuse that was known to be going on amongst junior staff magically to be unknown to senior staff.

    It stunk.

    Yes, parts of the NHS also came out of it terribly. But the BBC should not be excused. They were central to Savile's power and influence.
    No one is doing that. He had powerful influence in the NHS too. And in various Police Forces, and at high Government level, too. No doubt more places if anyone looked.
    The common factor? They didn't believe victims. And, if they did, it was a bit of a laugh anyways. Which was very much the prevailing attitude. This is the generation which also gave us widespread mindless vandalism, and football hooliganism.
    Should imagine a lot more of the involved will need to be dead before we find it all out.
    And let's not forget all the files that got deleted about Westminster abuse. A lot of guilty men are out there. And the cover up over Epstein's death and the death of the DC Madam show this is all still going on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,630
    edited September 26
    MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    I think they're based on the PWR3 design that RR did for the Dreadnought class submarines.

    (And yes, I know that a chunk of the design of PWR3 is American.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,878

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    Interesting.
    Indeed. It's a decision that's comes 8 years too late because Dave and George decided to get in bed with China.

    I do wonder what the subsidies for this will look like and what share of the liability the state will take on. RR isn't in any kind of financial position to take on all of the liability of a civilian nuclear programme.
    It doesn't require the eye-watering up-front investment in a single site, or a tiny handful of sites, though. It can be done in a much more incremental way, and the technology is pretty well established.
    Which is why it's an interesting (and good) decision. I'm not massively in favour of nuclear power as it is being done with a massive and unreliable EPR with a very high subsidised strike price.

    This could potentially be done with a much lower initial subsidy and once they've got it figured out incremental costs could be very low indeed. One of my colleagues compared it to a submarine programme (the top of the week), the first one will be expensive, late and people will slate it because it won't be what was promised. The ones that come after will be cheaper, faster and will bring improvements to the original that they couldn't figure out.
  • eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder if in the future any malicious types or state actors will follow the example set by our glorious media and create panics based on (initially) false rumours of shortages?

    Also: the last couple of years should be a warning sign that our systems are not well set up for extreme events: a small problem can soon become a critical one. We do not rely enough on redundant systems, and cut things to the bone too much.

    I really fear another Carrington event. We're utterly unprepared for a big one.
    Yes, I was reading some industry stuff on why the gas price spike has hurt the UK so badly on Friday. It said that the UK has got 4 days worth of gas storage facilities which meant there was no choice but to increase prices immediately for gas suppliers who essentially purchase for immediate delivery into short term storage. In Germany they have got 12 weeks worth of gas storage facilities available and that has allowed for companies to fix forwards prices a lot better and ride out the price spike and use cheaper purchased stored gas.

    The UK has got absolutely zero economic resilience. We've decided that paying for redundancy wins less votes than giving old people yet another freebie.
    Blame Centrica who decided there was no profit in storage…
    Blame the regulator who allowed them to do it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,878
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder if in the future any malicious types or state actors will follow the example set by our glorious media and create panics based on (initially) false rumours of shortages?

    Also: the last couple of years should be a warning sign that our systems are not well set up for extreme events: a small problem can soon become a critical one. We do not rely enough on redundant systems, and cut things to the bone too much.

    I really fear another Carrington event. We're utterly unprepared for a big one.
    Yes, I was reading some industry stuff on why the gas price spike has hurt the UK so badly on Friday. It said that the UK has got 4 days worth of gas storage facilities which meant there was no choice but to increase prices immediately for gas suppliers who essentially purchase for immediate delivery into short term storage. In Germany they have got 12 weeks worth of gas storage facilities available and that has allowed for companies to fix forwards prices a lot better and ride out the price spike and use cheaper purchased stored gas.

    The UK has got absolutely zero economic resilience. We've decided that paying for redundancy wins less votes than giving old people yet another freebie.
    Blame Centrica who decided there was no profit in storage…
    Germany, Italy and France subsidise their storage for this reason. We know there's no profit in it.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,440
    Scott_xP said:

    BigRich said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour's rule changes have passed. Sir Keir Starmer breathing a big sigh of relief tonight
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1442183851720257544

    Is this the rules about how the leader is elected?
    yes
    O, that's interesting, I had thought that on hear last night many posters thought, that the change in rules were dead.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,864
    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    If there was any petrol, you could drive a bus through that spread

    50-85???!!!
    You selling or buying?
    I'd like to buy at 50 and sell at 85 please
    Pas comment ca marche, mon vieux. Donnez moi un break.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856

    More shithousery at the Labour conference. https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1442174518215299075

    I really think this is a golden opportunity for the lib dems, especially in remain areas, to be brave and come out and declare they would join the single market and accept freedom of movement but remain outside the EU
    Would Lib Dems have credibility to make such a claim?

    Would anyone believe they would stop at that, given the history?
  • The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making
  • Aslan said:



    I think you are much nearer to the mark on two rather than one. It is pretty obvious that being molested causes substantial suffering to the child, especially repeated, systematic abuse. You have to be an idiot not to realise that. .

    Well, they were all idiots then, because it certainly was not regarded as obvious, at least not the extent that we now think. It was regarded as a Bad Thing, of course, but not that unusual and therefore almost by definition something that was likely to happen as part of normal growing-up.

    Very different attitude now, of course. Even so, I don't think the 21st century, with its abysmal record on children's mental health, is in a strong position to claim the high ground.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,878
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    I think they're based on the PWR3 design that RR did for the Dreadnought class submarines.

    (And yes, I know that a chunk of the design of PWR3 is American.)
    Which is interesting because that's a highly enriched uranium reactor. The safety implications of that in a civilian nuclear programme will be extremely negative.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    edited September 26

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
  • MattW said:

    More shithousery at the Labour conference. https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1442174518215299075

    I really think this is a golden opportunity for the lib dems, especially in remain areas, to be brave and come out and declare they would join the single market and accept freedom of movement but remain outside the EU
    Would Lib Dems have credibility to make such a claim?

    Would anyone believe they would stop at that, given the history?
    I really think it is an opening for them
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
    He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
    Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
    But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
    Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

    His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.
    Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.
    It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

    On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?
    Indeed, his marriage to an underage American has faded into history, alongside his Seventies slot "Schoolgirl of the week". That many of his groupies were young, and indeed underage is not something he has ever hidden, and while she was 15 he did actually marry her.

    http://andywalmsley.blogspot.com/2014/10/peel-reveals.html?m=1

    I think the difference is one of scale, but also of emphasis. Peel had a transparent excellence at spotting new musical trends that transcends his sexual misbehaviour. His evening show in the Eighties was a cornucopia of the brilliant and the avant garde alongside stuff like The Fall, which no matter how much I listen, I cannot get.
    Actually Mark E. Smith's currency has taken a fall of late - turns out he was a bit of a Tory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248
    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.
This discussion has been closed.