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The German election looks very tight – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    Bit like labour's conference
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,682

    Aslan said:



    I think you are much nearer to the mark on two rather than one. It is pretty obvious that being molested causes substantial suffering to the child, especially repeated, systematic abuse. You have to be an idiot not to realise that. .

    Well, they were all idiots then, because it certainly was not regarded as obvious, at least not the extent that we now think. It was regarded as a Bad Thing, of course, but not that unusual and therefore almost by definition something that was likely to happen as part of normal growing-up.

    Very different attitude now, of course. Even so, I don't think the 21st century, with its abysmal record on children's mental health, is in a strong position to claim the high ground.
    Yes, attitudes have changed. Somethings that happen now would have been considered appalling then.

  • AslanAslan Posts: 900

    Aslan said:



    I think you are much nearer to the mark on two rather than one. It is pretty obvious that being molested causes substantial suffering to the child, especially repeated, systematic abuse. You have to be an idiot not to realise that. .

    Well, they were all idiots then, because it certainly was not regarded as obvious, at least not the extent that we now think. It was regarded as a Bad Thing, of course, but not that unusual and therefore almost by definition something that was likely to happen as part of normal growing-up.

    Very different attitude now, of course. Even so, I don't think the 21st century, with its abysmal record on children's mental health, is in a strong position to claim the high ground.
    I don't believe people really believed that. I think they just used such excuses as justification to avoid doing the moral thing. I would apply the same thing to adults bullying children in the 21st century.
  • ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,196
    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893
  • SPD is narrowly ahead with ARD now as well.

    I think it will be SPD-Green-FDP although Scholz led Grand coalition can't be necessarily ruled out.

    Bit of a shocker for die Linke although the probability is they'll scrape in with at least 3 seats in East Berlin.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,682
    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    Yes, but European countries seem to function quite well without governments, often for prolonged periods.

    Politicians here may well be overestimating their importance. Would we miss them that much if they disappeared for months at a time while things tick over?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,519
    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
  • ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    Time to "trot" out the old "voters dont like a divided party" line
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    What happened, I thought all that was off? Now it's back on and Starmer's won? When did that happen?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,749

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    Bit like labour's conference
    There is nothing lovely about the mess unfolding at Labour’s conference.

    Although on that subject, I have a major beef with one earlier post. @IshmaelZ said Boris Johnson has ‘the morals of a pig.’ That’s outrageous. Pigs are clean, intelligent, loyal, patient and affectionate. They are nothing like Boris Johnson.
  • Betfair currently has CDU/CSU Most seats at 11.0 (although the price is volatile). Given that the latest projection has the SPD just two seats ahead, that seems rather generous...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,407

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,575
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    Yes, but European countries seem to function quite well without governments, often for prolonged periods.

    Politicians here may well be overestimating their importance. Would we miss them that much if they disappeared for months at a time while things tick over?
    Judging by the reaction to Raab's holiday, yes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,682

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    Yes, but in a system of PR, it is accepted that compromises will be made.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,749

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    Barely looks more coherent. Would still be a wafer thin majority with a certain consistency problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,713
    edited September 2021

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    Indeed, if they do not agree to work together then a Grand Coalition looks likely again.

    However if the SPD do win most seats as is probably still just about most likely and the FDP and Greens do agree to work together and join a Scholz led government then the Union would go into opposition.

    That would not be too bad a result for CSU leader and Bavarian premier Markus Soder who would then be favourite to be the Union's chancellor candidate in the 2025 German election if his main rival in the Union Laschet has indeed led the Union to defeat today

  • Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    Big win for @Keir_Starmer
    .
    Result of card vote on rules changes have just been confirmed.
    53.67% For.
    Even if Unison had abstained, leadership would still have won - by a whisker
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,749
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
    They’re firmly wedged in a losing position.
  • rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    Yes, but being kingmakers on their own is a very different position to being kingmakers alongside the FDP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,196
    The author of the Wings over Scotland site, who is based in Bath, has spent a decade first as a ferocious champion of the SNP and then as the party’s least forgiving critic.

    He has logged off with a tirade against Nicola Sturgeon


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ill-return-if-sturgeons-ousted-says-stuart-campbell-in-final-post-wqdg23kmt?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1632676135
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,302
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    Yes and no. Some are pretty rational, others in the party aren't and would do very well in the UK green party.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,717
    edited September 2021
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    an estimated 50-85% of UK petrol stations (outside of the motorway network) have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying over the weekend

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e79e4a8-7a1e-4b2c-8f81-cbf4e9969e28

    If there was any petrol, you could drive a bus through that spread

    50-85???!!!
    Buses run on diesel, though.
    The numbers would be interesting, as to what fuel buses actually run on now.

    In Nottingham there are 50 million bus journeys a year, 20 million on electric trams, and Idon't have the bike numbers to hand.
  • SWISS REFERENDA on GAY MARRIAGE and CAPITAL GAINS

    Gay Marriage - Swiss voters approving legalizing gay marriage
    > 64.1% Yes versus 35.9% No
    > yes majority in all 23 cantons, though cantonal majority not required

    Capital Gains Tax Expansion - But voters in Switzerland rejected proposal to expand capital gains taxation to dividends, shares & rents
    > 35.1% Yes versus 64.9% No
    > in this case required cantonal majority, but zero cantons voted in favor

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/results-of-the-vote-of-september-26--2021/46952566

    SAN MARINO ABORTION REFERENDUM
    still awaiting results from today's vote on legalizing abortion up to 12th week of pregnancy
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,407
    edited September 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    Interesting.
    Indeed. It's a decision that's comes 8 years too late because Dave and George decided to get in bed with China.

    I do wonder what the subsidies for this will look like and what share of the liability the state will take on. RR isn't in any kind of financial position to take on all of the liability of a civilian nuclear programme.
    It doesn't require the eye-watering up-front investment in a single site, or a tiny handful of sites, though. It can be done in a much more incremental way, and the technology is pretty well established.
    Which is why it's an interesting (and good) decision. I'm not massively in favour of nuclear power as it is being done with a massive and unreliable EPR with a very high subsidised strike price.

    This could potentially be done with a much lower initial subsidy and once they've got it figured out incremental costs could be very low indeed. One of my colleagues compared it to a submarine programme (the top of the week), the first one will be expensive, late and people will slate it because it won't be what was promised. The ones that come after will be cheaper, faster and will bring improvements to the original that they couldn't figure out.
    Agree 100%.

    Nuclear tends to have rather less uptime than you like, with plants being taken off line for unscheduled maintenance rather more frequently than people might think.

    (PBers - give me your guess for EDF's French nuclear availability in 2020. That is, of 100 hours of theoretical uptime, how many hours were power stations actually able to generate power. For context, a modern CCGT has more than 99% availability.)

    Concentrated nuclear - i.e. one massive site - is therefore a really bad idea, because what if your 3GW nuclear plant happens comes off line at the same time the wind isn't blowing?

    Distributed small scale plants don't have this problem. Down for unscheduled maintenance? Well, that's 50-100MW off-line. In the general scheme of things, that's nothing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,382
    Note it's still one member one vote. Rule changes are:

    - 20% of MPs to be nominated
    - Must be member 6 months to vote
    - No registered supporters

    Is that it?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,302
    edited September 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

    I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

    Interesting.
    Indeed. It's a decision that's comes 8 years too late because Dave and George decided to get in bed with China.

    I do wonder what the subsidies for this will look like and what share of the liability the state will take on. RR isn't in any kind of financial position to take on all of the liability of a civilian nuclear programme.
    It doesn't require the eye-watering up-front investment in a single site, or a tiny handful of sites, though. It can be done in a much more incremental way, and the technology is pretty well established.
    Which is why it's an interesting (and good) decision. I'm not massively in favour of nuclear power as it is being done with a massive and unreliable EPR with a very high subsidised strike price.

    This could potentially be done with a much lower initial subsidy and once they've got it figured out incremental costs could be very low indeed. One of my colleagues compared it to a submarine programme (the top of the week), the first one will be expensive, late and people will slate it because it won't be what was promised. The ones that come after will be cheaper, faster and will bring improvements to the original that they couldn't figure out.
    Agree 100%.

    Nuclear tends to have rather less uptime than you like, with plants being taken off line for unscheduled maintenance rather more frequently than people might thing.

    (PBers - give me your guess for EDF's French nuclear availability in 2020. That is, of 100 hours of theoretical uptime, how many hours were power stations actually able to generate power. For context, a modern CCGT has more than 99% availability.)

    Concentrated nuclear - i.e. one massive site - is therefore a really bad idea, because what if your 3GW nuclear plant happens comes off line at the same time the wind isn't blowing?

    Distributed small scale plants don't have this problem. Down for unscheduled maintenance? Well, that's 50-100MW off-line. In the general scheme of things, that's nothing.
    Looking at the brochure it’s 220mw per a reactor but even so that’s far more manageable than 3GWs going offline
    https://www.rolls-royce.com/~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/customers/nuclear/smr-brochure-july-2017.pdf
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    The UK could do with a centrist/centre right green party.
  • SWISS REFERENDA on GAY MARRIAGE and CAPITAL GAINS

    Gay Marriage - Swiss voters approving legalizing gay marriage
    > 64.1% Yes versus 35.9% No
    > yes majority in all 23 cantons, though cantonal majority not required

    Capital Gains Tax Expansion - But voters in Switzerland rejected proposal to expand capital gains taxation to dividends, shares & rents
    > 35.1% Yes versus 64.9% No
    > in this case required cantonal majority, but zero cantons voted in favor

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/results-of-the-vote-of-september-26--2021/46952566

    SAN MARINO ABORTION REFERENDUM
    still awaiting results from today's vote on legalizing abortion up to 12th week of pregnancy

    Very sensible Swiss
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,192

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    Yes, but being kingmakers on their own is a very different position to being kingmakers alongside the FDP.
    Indeed. Let’s be honest, we don’t really have an FDP in this country. It’s amazing how little attention they get from our media - they probably think they’re the yellows so just like the Lib Dem’s.
  • LoewLoew Posts: 5
    Argh - I just noticed this in a previous thread:
    darkage said:

    Cycled from Dundee to Aberdeen along the coastal path. Rolling hills, long sandy beaches, quirky military installations etc. No midges. Mostly free of english tourists. Everyone I met was very friendly.

    You write of English visitors as if they were a bad rash, the way some BNP boneheads and other white racists talk about non-whites whether born here or settlers or visitors. What a disgusting outlook, deserving of the epithet "Dark Age".

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,407
    Loew said:

    Argh - I just noticed this in a previous thread:

    darkage said:

    Cycled from Dundee to Aberdeen along the coastal path. Rolling hills, long sandy beaches, quirky military installations etc. No midges. Mostly free of english tourists. Everyone I met was very friendly.

    You write of English visitors as if they were a bad rash, the way some BNP boneheads and other white racists talk about non-whites whether born here or settlers or visitors. What a disgusting outlook, deserving of the epithet "Dark Age".

    I think you may be reading too much into @darkage's comment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,713
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    Yes, but being kingmakers on their own is a very different position to being kingmakers alongside the FDP.
    Indeed. Let’s be honest, we don’t really have an FDP in this country. It’s amazing how little attention they get from our media - they probably think they’re the yellows so just like the Lib Dem’s.
    We did have an FDP when the LDs were led by Clegg
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,496

    There was no fuel delivery problem for most of the UK. People have all panic filled their tanks. Unless they are all going panic drive the length of the country then they won't need to refil, and even if they top them off thats only a bit of fuel taken.

    So there will be no fuel crisis this week. Unless there is a new actual shortage of delivery drivers. Which would be quite funny now.

    You know logistics Rochdale. Don't you think it will take at least a week to top up the higher end of 50- 85% empty filling stations range, even if the panic buying stops today. The hauliers will be able to add, what? 10% over and above their daily schedules at a push.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,713
    edited September 2021

    SWISS REFERENDA on GAY MARRIAGE and CAPITAL GAINS

    Gay Marriage - Swiss voters approving legalizing gay marriage
    > 64.1% Yes versus 35.9% No
    > yes majority in all 23 cantons, though cantonal majority not required

    Capital Gains Tax Expansion - But voters in Switzerland rejected proposal to expand capital gains taxation to dividends, shares & rents
    > 35.1% Yes versus 64.9% No
    > in this case required cantonal majority, but zero cantons voted in favor

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/results-of-the-vote-of-september-26--2021/46952566

    SAN MARINO ABORTION REFERENDUM
    still awaiting results from today's vote on legalizing abortion up to 12th week of pregnancy

    So that means all of western Europe except Italy and Andorra, as well as the US, Canada, Australia and NZ have legal gay marriage, Switzerland being one of the last to hold out (though it did have civil domestic partnerships)
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    edited September 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    The author of the Wings over Scotland site, who is based in Bath, has spent a decade first as a ferocious champion of the SNP and then as the party’s least forgiving critic.

    He has logged off with a tirade against Nicola Sturgeon


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ill-return-if-sturgeons-ousted-says-stuart-campbell-in-final-post-wqdg23kmt?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1632676135

    Wings over Scotland has quit blogging? Again?!
    I hope Wings over Scotland writes a new blog post about how Wings over Scotland has stopped posting Wings over Scotland posts. This is the biggest Wings over Scotland news since Wings over Scotland last quit doing Wings over Scotland.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,519
    rcs1000 said:

    Loew said:

    Argh - I just noticed this in a previous thread:

    darkage said:

    Cycled from Dundee to Aberdeen along the coastal path. Rolling hills, long sandy beaches, quirky military installations etc. No midges. Mostly free of english tourists. Everyone I met was very friendly.

    You write of English visitors as if they were a bad rash, the way some BNP boneheads and other white racists talk about non-whites whether born here or settlers or visitors. What a disgusting outlook, deserving of the epithet "Dark Age".

    I think you may be reading too much into @darkage's comment.
    "english" is striking, but so is a maiden post of such notable snarkiness.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    52% would have been funnier.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,519
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
    They’re firmly wedged in a losing position.
    Tee hee.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
    They’re firmly wedged in a losing position.
    Tee hee.
    Europe hobbled by a driver shortage?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,407
    As no one was willing to take a stab at French nuclear availability, I'll tell you.

    61.7% in 2020.

    Now, there were probably some Covid related issues in there. So I'll tell you what 2021 was: 67%.

    A French nuclear power is typically only available to generate power on two-thirds of days. The availability of Hinkley Point C, which is based around the new EPR design, will be less than that - at least initially. It is probably reasonable to assume no more than 50% availability for the first couple of years.
  • Is Rayner as canny at playing the media game as Johnson?

    Might be worth considering as a theory after the 'scum' comments put her all over the media on the day that Starmer was on Marr?

  • Farooq said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    The UK could do with a centrist/centre right green party.
    The UK could do with a Green Party that focuses on the environment.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,496

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    52% would have been funnier.....
    Well, we all seem to think 52% was a resounding victory way back in 2016. So your point is?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    No, 53-47 is a huge victory. Bigger than 52-48, anyway.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115
    HYUFD said:

    SWISS REFERENDA on GAY MARRIAGE and CAPITAL GAINS

    Gay Marriage - Swiss voters approving legalizing gay marriage
    > 64.1% Yes versus 35.9% No
    > yes majority in all 23 cantons, though cantonal majority not required

    Capital Gains Tax Expansion - But voters in Switzerland rejected proposal to expand capital gains taxation to dividends, shares & rents
    > 35.1% Yes versus 64.9% No
    > in this case required cantonal majority, but zero cantons voted in favor

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/results-of-the-vote-of-september-26--2021/46952566

    SAN MARINO ABORTION REFERENDUM
    still awaiting results from today's vote on legalizing abortion up to 12th week of pregnancy

    So that means all of western Europe except Italy and Andorra, as well as the US, Canada, Australia and NZ have legal gay marriage, Switzerland being one of the last to hold out (though it did have civil domestic partnerships)
    And Taiwan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    52% would have been funnier.....
    Well, we all seem to think 52% was a resounding victory way back in 2016. So your point is?
    ???

    Presumably the point was it would have been funnier to match that 2016 proportion?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    No, 53-47 is a huge victory. Bigger than 52-48, anyway.
    Although if I have been following this correctly this is not actually the rule change he wanted. This is only the threshold rule.

    Or maybe that's what he wanted all along?

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,257
    Looking at the labour party conference; I am becoming more and more in awe of what Blair did. He really got the party in to order. This is just a mess. As far as I can see, the most pressing issue the party want to talk about is transgender rights; and the deputy leader is acting as if she is a student politician addressing an SWP rally. Discipline is non-existent. Meanwhile, obscure technical votes are occuring on procedural matters that make no sense to anyone beyond the few thousand people who actively follow labour party politics, and a similar number who report on it. These somehow make the mainstream news, but no one in the real world cares.

    In the past Blair turned the event in to a platform for putting across a positive image of the party and its politics, its main function was to prove that it had moved on from the chaos that preceded such events in the 1980s. Labour have willingly plunged back in to the said chaos; Starmer is trying to follow the same path as Blair, but he has a long way to go; and a much longer list of obstacles than those that Blair faced; many of which are catastrophic to the goal of being re-elected (such as the loss of Scotland, and large parts of the north of england). I can only wish him good luck; but think it is rather unlikely that I could vote for this sham.
  • Farooq said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    The UK could do with a centrist/centre right green party.
    The UK could do with a Green Party that focuses on the environment.
    The trouble with that approach is that the party is then immediately labelled as 'single issue' and so the cycle begins again.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    Yes, but being kingmakers on their own is a very different position to being kingmakers alongside the FDP.
    Indeed. Let’s be honest, we don’t really have an FDP in this country. It’s amazing how little attention they get from our media - they probably think they’re the yellows so just like the Lib Dem’s.
    It's funny how that can get ingrained in our minds. It's useful shorthand when we group parties of the world in the common shades, or they do, but even if nominally of the same philosophy they could be wildly different. Yet people will often presume solidarity with some party of the left or right elsewhere which might have nothing in common with our own left or right. Certainly by name you cannot trust a party is what it says.

    The USA actually helps with this by flipping the colours.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,496
    edited September 2021
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    52% would have been funnier.....
    Well, we all seem to think 52% was a resounding victory way back in 2016. So your point is?
    ???

    Presumably the point was it would have been funnier to match that 2016 proportion?
    I knew what was being alluded too. I am still not bright enough to work out why such a coincidence would be so hilarious,

    We Brexited on 52% didn't we? You won, deal with it.
  • Can some kind soul post link(s) for live coverage of German results? Gotta BIG bet on the Schleswig Party!
  • Farooq said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, another grand coalition? Hard to see any other combination that could command a majority. Equally, who then is Chancellor?

    That’s a lovely confused mess the Germans have given themselves.

    No, a grand coalition is unlikely. It will almost certainly be a three-party coalition with the FDP and Greens choosing whether the CDU/CDSU or SDP gets the lead gig.
    The problem is that the FDP and the Greens might have diametrically opposed priorities on some questions.
    German Greens are quite centrist and pro Business. They are very far from XR, or British Greens.
    The UK could do with a centrist/centre right green party.
    Proportional representation made them that way. Giving people responsibility tends to make them more pragmatic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,749
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The author of the Wings over Scotland site, who is based in Bath, has spent a decade first as a ferocious champion of the SNP and then as the party’s least forgiving critic.

    He has logged off with a tirade against Nicola Sturgeon


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ill-return-if-sturgeons-ousted-says-stuart-campbell-in-final-post-wqdg23kmt?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1632676135

    Wings over Scotland has quit blogging? Again?!
    I hope Wings over Scotland writes a new blog post about how Wings over Scotland has stopped posting Wings over Scotland posts. This is the biggest Wings over Scotland news since Wings over Scotland last quit doing Wings over Scotland.
    He’s always in a flap about something.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    52% would have been funnier.....
    Well, we all seem to think 52% was a resounding victory way back in 2016. So your point is?
    Given how much effort Skyr put into overturning a 52% vote for Brexit.....whose legitimacy he felt able to question. Be interesting to see if he thinks the 53% should now be adhered to, unquestioned....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,519
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
    They’re firmly wedged in a losing position.
    Tee hee.
    Europe hobbled by a driver shortage?
    Specifically the UK, with its habit of driving on the links...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    52% would have been funnier.....
    Well, we all seem to think 52% was a resounding victory way back in 2016. So your point is?
    ???

    Presumably the point was it would have been funnier to match that 2016 proportion?
    I knew what was being alluded too. I am still not bright enough to work out why such a coincidence would be so hilarious,

    We Brexited on 52% didn't we? You won, deal with it.
    It's not laugh out loud hilarious, but political wonks have joked about the cursed ratio etc for years now, whenever a poll or result shows it.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    No, 53-47 is a huge victory. Bigger than 52-48, anyway.
    Although if I have been following this correctly this is not actually the rule change he wanted. This is only the threshold rule.

    Or maybe that's what he wanted all along?

    He's happy with what he's got, and it's a sensible compromise. It means MPs have more power over who will be on the ballot for next leader, and people won't just be able to join the party, or just register, for the purpose of voting in a leadership election. He dropped the idea of changes to the electoral college in advance of conference, because they wouldn't have got through. I don't think Starmer's bothered about that - I think it was being pushed by some of his outriders.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,749
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
    They’re firmly wedged in a losing position.
    Tee hee.
    Europe hobbled by a driver shortage?
    Specifically the UK, with its habit of driving on the links...
    It’s a fairway to being chaos.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115
    edited September 2021
    Any idea when we get any actual results? They could do with a modern "Auf Wiedersehen, Pet."
    A huge influx of Geordie and Mackem gestarbeit vote counters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,713
    edited September 2021
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    SWISS REFERENDA on GAY MARRIAGE and CAPITAL GAINS

    Gay Marriage - Swiss voters approving legalizing gay marriage
    > 64.1% Yes versus 35.9% No
    > yes majority in all 23 cantons, though cantonal majority not required

    Capital Gains Tax Expansion - But voters in Switzerland rejected proposal to expand capital gains taxation to dividends, shares & rents
    > 35.1% Yes versus 64.9% No
    > in this case required cantonal majority, but zero cantons voted in favor

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/results-of-the-vote-of-september-26--2021/46952566

    SAN MARINO ABORTION REFERENDUM
    still awaiting results from today's vote on legalizing abortion up to 12th week of pregnancy

    So that means all of western Europe except Italy and Andorra, as well as the US, Canada, Australia and NZ have legal gay marriage, Switzerland being one of the last to hold out (though it did have civil domestic partnerships)
    And Taiwan.
    Yes, Taiwan the exception in the Far East, still no legal gay marriage anywhere else in Asia nor in Africa apart from South Africa. (So LGBT activists will no doubt be backing continued Taiwanese independence from Beijing given gay marriage is not legal in mainland China).

    Latin America more liberal though interestingly, gay marriage is legal in Brazil, most of Mexico and Argentina
  • rcs1000 said:

    As no one was willing to take a stab at French nuclear availability, I'll tell you.

    61.7% in 2020.

    Now, there were probably some Covid related issues in there. So I'll tell you what 2021 was: 67%.

    A French nuclear power is typically only available to generate power on two-thirds of days. The availability of Hinkley Point C, which is based around the new EPR design, will be less than that - at least initially. It is probably reasonable to assume no more than 50% availability for the first couple of years.

    The problem with wind is that turbines all go offline together (too little wind or stormy weather) in addition to individual outage for maintenance or mechanical failure.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,496

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    No, 53-47 is a huge victory. Bigger than 52-48, anyway.
    Although if I have been following this correctly this is not actually the rule change he wanted. This is only the threshold rule.

    Or maybe that's what he wanted all along?

    If this was a result for Johnson at a Conservative conference it would have been painted as successful horse trading by the big man. Just saying

    Starmer is still a disappointment, and his party remains shambolic.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,717
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The author of the Wings over Scotland site, who is based in Bath, has spent a decade first as a ferocious champion of the SNP and then as the party’s least forgiving critic.

    He has logged off with a tirade against Nicola Sturgeon


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ill-return-if-sturgeons-ousted-says-stuart-campbell-in-final-post-wqdg23kmt?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1632676135

    Wings over Scotland has quit blogging? Again?!
    I hope Wings over Scotland writes a new blog post about how Wings over Scotland has stopped posting Wings over Scotland posts. This is the biggest Wings over Scotland news since Wings over Scotland last quit doing Wings over Scotland.
    It's like Stephen Fry's Twitter flounces.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    No, 53-47 is a huge victory. Bigger than 52-48, anyway.
    Although if I have been following this correctly this is not actually the rule change he wanted. This is only the threshold rule.

    Or maybe that's what he wanted all along?

    If this was a result for Johnson at a Conservative conference it would have been painted as successful horse trading by the big man. Just saying

    Starmer is still a disappointment, and his party remains shambolic.
    Starmer only being an MP for five or whatever years the low number is is really starting to show imho.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    Can some kind soul post link(s) for live coverage of German results? Gotta BIG bet on the Schleswig Party!

    Not sure if anyone has better than the official results page AndyJS posted. Nothing in yet.

    https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,431
    edited September 2021
    darkage said:

    Looking at the labour party conference; I am becoming more and more in awe of what Blair did. He really got the party in to order. This is just a mess. As far as I can see, the most pressing issue the party want to talk about is transgender rights; and the deputy leader is acting as if she is a student politician addressing an SWP rally. Discipline is non-existent. Meanwhile, obscure technical votes are occuring on procedural matters that make no sense to anyone beyond the few thousand people who actively follow labour party politics, and a similar number who report on it. These somehow make the mainstream news, but no one in the real world cares.

    In the past Blair turned the event in to a platform for putting across a positive image of the party and its politics, its main function was to prove that it had moved on from the chaos that preceded such events in the 1980s. Labour have willingly plunged back in to the said chaos; Starmer is trying to follow the same path as Blair, but he has a long way to go; and a much longer list of obstacles than those that Blair faced; many of which are catastrophic to the goal of being re-elected (such as the loss of Scotland, and large parts of the north of england). I can only wish him good luck; but think it is rather unlikely that I could vote for this sham.

    Up tp a point, but there's a bit of rewriting of history going on here. The (far) left have always kicked off at Conference, and did so in Blair's day as well. Especially before 1997, there were the same old conference motions demanding the renationalisation of pretty much everything. Blair (with Brown, and then Mandelson and Campbell) just ignored them. It became easier once he was PM, because even the lefties at Conference had to accept he was a winner. What Starmer is up against isn't really any different, and he's seeking to follow Blair's path. Conference is the price of having a vaguely democratic party, though. I think it's a price worth paying.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,717
    edited September 2021

    rcs1000 said:

    As no one was willing to take a stab at French nuclear availability, I'll tell you.

    61.7% in 2020.

    Now, there were probably some Covid related issues in there. So I'll tell you what 2021 was: 67%.

    A French nuclear power is typically only available to generate power on two-thirds of days. The availability of Hinkley Point C, which is based around the new EPR design, will be less than that - at least initially. It is probably reasonable to assume no more than 50% availability for the first couple of years.

    The problem with wind is that turbines all go offline together (too little wind or stormy weather) in addition to individual outage for maintenance or mechanical failure.
    What's the availability of UK nuclear?

    Or is this French power unreliabilty (?) another consequence of Perfidious Albion / Brexit?

    He's happy with what he's got, and it's a sensible compromise. It means MPs have more power over who will be on the ballot for next leader, and people won't just be able to join the party, or just register, for the purpose of voting in a leadership election.
    That's good to see. I called for more influence for Lab MPs on Twitter, and got roasted for my trouble.

    "Matt hates democracy"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,196
    Breaking:

    Ministers have suspended competition laws to enable fuel suppliers to talk to one another and target petrol stations running dry

    Half of non motorway petrol stations said to be running empty amid continued panic buying

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1442199533153366017
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013
  • dixiedean said:

    Any idea when we get any actual results? They could do with a modern "Auf Wiedersehen, Pet."
    A huge influx of Geordie and Mackem gestarbeit vote counters.

    I always had Oz down as Green Party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659

    rcs1000 said:

    As no one was willing to take a stab at French nuclear availability, I'll tell you.

    61.7% in 2020.

    Now, there were probably some Covid related issues in there. So I'll tell you what 2021 was: 67%.

    A French nuclear power is typically only available to generate power on two-thirds of days. The availability of Hinkley Point C, which is based around the new EPR design, will be less than that - at least initially. It is probably reasonable to assume no more than 50% availability for the first couple of years.

    The problem with wind is that turbines all go offline together (too little wind or stormy weather) in addition to individual outage for maintenance or mechanical failure.
    Tidal lagoon power produces for 14 hours a day. 58% coverage

    But one 3 hours tide up the coast would give 70% production coverage through 24 hours.

    Four spread around the coasts could give 95.8% coverage through 24 hours.

    Each day. Every day. For 120 years. Minimum. Zero carbon. Zero waste.......
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    Ministers have suspended competition laws to enable fuel suppliers to talk to one another and target petrol stations running dry

    Half of non motorway petrol stations said to be running empty amid continued panic buying

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1442199533153366017

    Don’t worry. There will be adequate beer and sandwiches.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    Ministers have suspended competition laws to enable fuel suppliers to talk to one another and target petrol stations running dry

    Half of non motorway petrol stations said to be running empty amid continued panic buying

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1442199533153366017

    Why don't they divert HGV drivers who are delivering crap that no one basically needs on a short term basis (like I don't know - off the top of my head, garden furniture in September) to delivering petrol? Or is a tanker driver a different class of licence?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,196
    edited September 2021
    kle4 said:

    Can some kind soul post link(s) for live coverage of German results? Gotta BIG bet on the Schleswig Party!

    Not sure if anyone has better than the official results page AndyJS posted. Nothing in yet.

    https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
    https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-BT-DE/index.shtml

    Looks like my bet paid off and the Schleswig Party is (as they used to say) in like Flynn.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
    They’re firmly wedged in a losing position.
    Tee hee.
    Europe hobbled by a driver shortage?
    Specifically the UK, with its habit of driving on the links...
    It’s a fairway to being chaos.
    We need a huge slice of luck.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,749

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    Ministers have suspended competition laws to enable fuel suppliers to talk to one another and target petrol stations running dry

    Half of non motorway petrol stations said to be running empty amid continued panic buying

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1442199533153366017

    Don’t worry. There will be adequate beer and sandwiches.
    I don’t imagine anyone will panic buy petrol station sandwiches.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    edited September 2021
    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    I wondered if Samoa might be on there since its last PM was PM for over 20 years, but they they have had quite a few since 74. But on checking I did like the wikipedia summary of their recent constitutional crisis (as the loser refused to accept defeat), with what might be the fastest switch around in position I've ever seen. From wiki

    On 23 July 2021 the Court of Appeal delivered its judgement on the swearing-in ceremony, declaring that it was constitutional and binding, that FAST had been the government since 24 May, and that the HRPP had been unlawfully occupying office since that date.[6][7][81] Following the decision former prime minister Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi questioned the impartiality of the judiciary and accused them of "treason", claiming that "leaders are chosen by God".[82] The next day, he began to pack up his office.[83] On 25 July, head of state Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II recognised the new government.[84] Tuilaepa admitted defeat and said he looked forward to working with the new government.[85][86]


    From 'it's treason!', to 'looking forward to working with you' in a day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,749

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Europeans are embarrassing themselves in the Ryder Cup with some shocking shot making

    They putt it where the sun don’t shine?
    You wood think they could do better than this.
    They’re firmly wedged in a losing position.
    Tee hee.
    Europe hobbled by a driver shortage?
    Specifically the UK, with its habit of driving on the links...
    It’s a fairway to being chaos.
    We need a huge slice of luck.
    As it is, we’re stuck in the rough.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,196

    Don’t worry. There will be adequate beer and sandwiches.

    Can't guarantee that...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,422

    rcs1000 said:

    As no one was willing to take a stab at French nuclear availability, I'll tell you.

    61.7% in 2020.

    Now, there were probably some Covid related issues in there. So I'll tell you what 2021 was: 67%.

    A French nuclear power is typically only available to generate power on two-thirds of days. The availability of Hinkley Point C, which is based around the new EPR design, will be less than that - at least initially. It is probably reasonable to assume no more than 50% availability for the first couple of years.

    The problem with wind is that turbines all go offline together (too little wind or stormy weather) in addition to individual outage for maintenance or mechanical failure.
    Tidal lagoon power produces for 14 hours a day. 58% coverage

    But one 3 hours tide up the coast would give 70% production coverage through 24 hours.

    Four spread around the coasts could give 95.8% coverage through 24 hours.

    Each day. Every day. For 120 years. Minimum. Zero carbon. Zero waste.......
    Not quite zero carbon. Considerable initial amounts in concrete and steel production. But yes, we should be doing this.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,717
    Interesting little local election result in Kendal.

    Why is Kendal voting Green? LDs seem to be in a fluff about it (understandably). Has @Dura_Ace been through in his hoon-mobile, and they are voting Green for peace and quiet?

    Kendal North Ward, South Lakeland DC
    Lib Dem 622 (47%)
    Green 527 (40%)
    Conservative 122 (9%)
    Labour 54 (4%)

    Strickland Ward, Kendal TC
    Lib Dem 647 (49%)
    Green 511 (31%)
    Conservative 115 (9%)
    Labour 60 (5%)

    (https://www.libdemvoice.org/aldc-byelection-report-23-september-2021-68704.html#comment-560520)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,496

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    No, 53-47 is a huge victory. Bigger than 52-48, anyway.
    Although if I have been following this correctly this is not actually the rule change he wanted. This is only the threshold rule.

    Or maybe that's what he wanted all along?

    If this was a result for Johnson at a Conservative conference it would have been painted as successful horse trading by the big man. Just saying

    Starmer is still a disappointment, and his party remains shambolic.
    Starmer only being an MP for five or whatever years the low number is is really starting to show imho.
    He's been leader for 18 months. He should be wising up as to what a duplicitous bunch the Labour Party are by now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    Tough for an ambitious politician - you have to be at the right time or you won't get a chance for a decade and more to get the top job, or even adjacent to it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115

    rcs1000 said:

    As no one was willing to take a stab at French nuclear availability, I'll tell you.

    61.7% in 2020.

    Now, there were probably some Covid related issues in there. So I'll tell you what 2021 was: 67%.

    A French nuclear power is typically only available to generate power on two-thirds of days. The availability of Hinkley Point C, which is based around the new EPR design, will be less than that - at least initially. It is probably reasonable to assume no more than 50% availability for the first couple of years.

    The problem with wind is that turbines all go offline together (too little wind or stormy weather) in addition to individual outage for maintenance or mechanical failure.
    Tidal lagoon power produces for 14 hours a day. 58% coverage

    But one 3 hours tide up the coast would give 70% production coverage through 24 hours.

    Four spread around the coasts could give 95.8% coverage through 24 hours.

    Each day. Every day. For 120 years. Minimum. Zero carbon. Zero waste.......
    Zero chance of a critical meltdown incident. A terrorist attack would be a hassle, but wouldn't entirely render the area uninhabitable. Predictable what the tide will be in 120 years.
    I could go on and on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,196

    Or is a tanker driver a different class of licence?

    I believe so
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    I wondered if Samoa might be on there since its last PM was PM for over 20 years, but they they have had quite a few since 74. But on checking I did like the wikipedia summary of their recent constitutional crisis (as the loser refused to accept defeat), with what might be the fastest switch around in position I've ever seen. From wiki

    On 23 July 2021 the Court of Appeal delivered its judgement on the swearing-in ceremony, declaring that it was constitutional and binding, that FAST had been the government since 24 May, and that the HRPP had been unlawfully occupying office since that date.[6][7][81] Following the decision former prime minister Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi questioned the impartiality of the judiciary and accused them of "treason", claiming that "leaders are chosen by God".[82] The next day, he began to pack up his office.[83] On 25 July, head of state Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II recognised the new government.[84] Tuilaepa admitted defeat and said he looked forward to working with the new government.[85][86]


    From 'it's treason!', to 'looking forward to working with you' in a day.
    Samoa = 1985
    A clear winner were it not for Germany. Great knowledge by the way.
  • Foxy said:



    http://andywalmsley.blogspot.com/2014/10/peel-reveals.html?m=1

    I think the difference is one of scale, but also of emphasis. Peel had a transparent excellence at spotting new musical trends that transcends his sexual misbehaviour. His evening show in the Eighties was a cornucopia of the brilliant and the avant garde alongside stuff like The Fall, which no matter how much I listen, I cannot get.

    If you pardon the expression, fuck the right off.

    The idea that the 'talent' can get away with things because they are the talent is exactly how these sh*ts got away with it for decades. Their talent is unimportant.

    "transcends his sexual misbehaviour," ffs.

    This is the sort of sick rubbish dear Roger used to spout, before MeToo ...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    Tough for an ambitious politician - you have to be at the right time or you won't get a chance for a decade and more to get the top job, or even adjacent to it.
    I think we could do with rather less of ambitious politicians, if you want my honest opinion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,682
    edited September 2021
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    I wondered if Samoa might be on there since its last PM was PM for over 20 years, but they they have had quite a few since 74. But on checking I did like the wikipedia summary of their recent constitutional crisis (as the loser refused to accept defeat), with what might be the fastest switch around in position I've ever seen. From wiki

    On 23 July 2021 the Court of Appeal delivered its judgement on the swearing-in ceremony, declaring that it was constitutional and binding, that FAST had been the government since 24 May, and that the HRPP had been unlawfully occupying office since that date.[6][7][81] Following the decision former prime minister Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi questioned the impartiality of the judiciary and accused them of "treason", claiming that "leaders are chosen by God".[82] The next day, he began to pack up his office.[83] On 25 July, head of state Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II recognised the new government.[84] Tuilaepa admitted defeat and said he looked forward to working with the new government.[85][86]


    From 'it's treason!', to 'looking forward to working with you' in a day.
    Could teach the yanks a thing or two.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,302
    edited September 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking:

    Ministers have suspended competition laws to enable fuel suppliers to talk to one another and target petrol stations running dry

    Half of non motorway petrol stations said to be running empty amid continued panic buying

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1442199533153366017

    Why don't they divert HGV drivers who are delivering crap that no one basically needs on a short term basis (like I don't know - off the top of my head, garden furniture in September) to delivering petrol? Or is a tanker driver a different class of licence?
    Probably not qualified to drive petrol tankers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Keir Starmer’s leadership rule changes got 53% of the vote, a narrow win
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1442188712020901893

    No, 53-47 is a huge victory. Bigger than 52-48, anyway.
    Although if I have been following this correctly this is not actually the rule change he wanted. This is only the threshold rule.

    Or maybe that's what he wanted all along?

    If this was a result for Johnson at a Conservative conference it would have been painted as successful horse trading by the big man. Just saying

    Starmer is still a disappointment, and his party remains shambolic.
    Starmer only being an MP for five or whatever years the low number is is really starting to show imho.
    He's been leader for 18 months. He should be wising up as to what a duplicitous bunch the Labour Party are by now.
    Party should be wising up as to what a duplicitous useless nonentity he is by now
  • kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    I wondered if Samoa might be on there since its last PM was PM for over 20 years, but they they have had quite a few since 74. But on checking I did like the wikipedia summary of their recent constitutional crisis (as the loser refused to accept defeat), with what might be the fastest switch around in position I've ever seen. From wiki

    On 23 July 2021 the Court of Appeal delivered its judgement on the swearing-in ceremony, declaring that it was constitutional and binding, that FAST had been the government since 24 May, and that the HRPP had been unlawfully occupying office since that date.[6][7][81] Following the decision former prime minister Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi questioned the impartiality of the judiciary and accused them of "treason", claiming that "leaders are chosen by God".[82] The next day, he began to pack up his office.[83] On 25 July, head of state Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II recognised the new government.[84] Tuilaepa admitted defeat and said he looked forward to working with the new government.[85][86]


    From 'it's treason!', to 'looking forward to working with you' in a day.
    Would that #44 had shown such wisdom - better late than never!

    Also interesting example of powerful reserve power of a "ceremonial" head of state.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    edited September 2021
    Foxy said:



    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    I wondered if Samoa might be on there since its last PM was PM for over 20 years, but they they have had quite a few since 74. But on checking I did like the wikipedia summary of their recent constitutional crisis (as the loser refused to accept defeat), with what might be the fastest switch around in position I've ever seen. From wiki

    On 23 July 2021 the Court of Appeal delivered its judgement on the swearing-in ceremony, declaring that it was constitutional and binding, that FAST had been the government since 24 May, and that the HRPP had been unlawfully occupying office since that date.[6][7][81] Following the decision former prime minister Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi questioned the impartiality of the judiciary and accused them of "treason", claiming that "leaders are chosen by God".[82] The next day, he began to pack up his office.[83] On 25 July, head of state Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II recognised the new government.[84] Tuilaepa admitted defeat and said he looked forward to working with the new government.[85][86]


    From 'it's treason!', to 'looking forward to working with you' in a day.
    Could teach the yanks a thing or two.
    Amusing, except what he seems to have done was worse, in that he actually sought to prevent the swearing in of his opponent.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,257

    darkage said:

    Looking at the labour party conference; I am becoming more and more in awe of what Blair did. He really got the party in to order. This is just a mess. As far as I can see, the most pressing issue the party want to talk about is transgender rights; and the deputy leader is acting as if she is a student politician addressing an SWP rally. Discipline is non-existent. Meanwhile, obscure technical votes are occuring on procedural matters that make no sense to anyone beyond the few thousand people who actively follow labour party politics, and a similar number who report on it. These somehow make the mainstream news, but no one in the real world cares.

    In the past Blair turned the event in to a platform for putting across a positive image of the party and its politics, its main function was to prove that it had moved on from the chaos that preceded such events in the 1980s. Labour have willingly plunged back in to the said chaos; Starmer is trying to follow the same path as Blair, but he has a long way to go; and a much longer list of obstacles than those that Blair faced; many of which are catastrophic to the goal of being re-elected (such as the loss of Scotland, and large parts of the north of england). I can only wish him good luck; but think it is rather unlikely that I could vote for this sham.

    Up tp a point, but there's a bit of rewriting of history going on here. The (far) left have always kicked off at Conference, and did so in Blair's day as well. Especially before 1997, there were the same old conference motions demanding the renationalisation of pretty much everything. Blair (with Brown, and then Mandelson and Campbell) just ignored them. It became easier once he was PM, because even the lefties at Conference had to accept he was a winner. What Starmer is up against isn't really any different, and he's seeking to follow Blair's path. Conference is the price of having a vaguely democratic party, though. I think it's a price worth paying.
    Fair enough: I am happily out of it. For what it is worth though, I always found the attitude towards democracy in the labour party, particularly on the left of the party, to be incomprehsible. The objective was that everyone should be able to vote on policies, but the barriers to entry were minimal, almost laughable. The objective seemed to be to empower people who did nothing but occasionally hang around talking in meetings, at the expense of the people who actually did the hard work of campaigning and standing for office. How this can ever be seen as an efficient way to run any sort of organisation is beyond me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As no one was willing to take a stab at French nuclear availability, I'll tell you.

    61.7% in 2020.

    Now, there were probably some Covid related issues in there. So I'll tell you what 2021 was: 67%.

    A French nuclear power is typically only available to generate power on two-thirds of days. The availability of Hinkley Point C, which is based around the new EPR design, will be less than that - at least initially. It is probably reasonable to assume no more than 50% availability for the first couple of years.

    The problem with wind is that turbines all go offline together (too little wind or stormy weather) in addition to individual outage for maintenance or mechanical failure.
    Tidal lagoon power produces for 14 hours a day. 58% coverage

    But one 3 hours tide up the coast would give 70% production coverage through 24 hours.

    Four spread around the coasts could give 95.8% coverage through 24 hours.

    Each day. Every day. For 120 years. Minimum. Zero carbon. Zero waste.......
    Zero chance of a critical meltdown incident. A terrorist attack would be a hassle, but wouldn't entirely render the area uninhabitable. Predictable what the tide will be in 120 years.
    I could go on and on.
    Lagoons are a third of the capital cost to build versus nuclear (and last at least twice as long - probably far longer).

    Electricity at a 40-50% discount to the price for that generated by nuclear.

    Virtually zero abandonment costs for tidal versus the current bill of up to £220 billion to abandon the UKs existing nuclear facilities.

    Regeneration of coastal towns by creation of new leisure facilities at lagoons
    - versus each nuclear plant requiring a 24 hour armed police force

    80,000 jobs and apprenticeships created in building a fleet of lagoons.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    edited September 2021
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Germany has had four chancellors since 1974. That's astounding. Are there any other democracies with anything close to that kind of stability?
    Germany = 1974
    Canada = 1993
    France = 1995
    Spain = 1996
    New Zealand = 1999
    USA = 2001
    Denmark = 2001/2009 (if you count Løkke twice or not)
    UK = 2010
    Italy = 2013
    Australia = 2013

    Tough for an ambitious politician - you have to be at the right time or you won't get a chance for a decade and more to get the top job, or even adjacent to it.
    I think we could do with rather less of ambitious politicians, if you want my honest opinion.
    Nothing but ambition is a problem, but I don't think ambition is itself a problem. Clearly Germany doesn't like to switch over its leaders very often and that has worked for them, but there's probably quite a few very able people who never got a look in or never bothered because they know there's little chance of a political shift.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115

    Foxy said:



    http://andywalmsley.blogspot.com/2014/10/peel-reveals.html?m=1

    I think the difference is one of scale, but also of emphasis. Peel had a transparent excellence at spotting new musical trends that transcends his sexual misbehaviour. His evening show in the Eighties was a cornucopia of the brilliant and the avant garde alongside stuff like The Fall, which no matter how much I listen, I cannot get.

    If you pardon the expression, fuck the right off.

    The idea that the 'talent' can get away with things because they are the talent is exactly how these sh*ts got away with it for decades. Their talent is unimportant.

    "transcends his sexual misbehaviour," ffs.

    This is the sort of sick rubbish dear Roger used to spout, before MeToo ...
    I agree. Although one of the most remarkable things about Savile was his complete lack of any discernible talent.
This discussion has been closed.