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The front pages that should frighten ministers – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 20,186
    edited September 2021
    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    It could explain why we have so many seemingly impossible to fill job adverts, a lot of people are happy with what they are currently getting on 14-20 hours of work a week.

    No wonder the Treasury is so desperate to get rid of the £20 uplift - they may see it as a trigger to encourage people working a few more hours.
    At the same time rumour has it that the point at which the taper kicks in may be raised slightly to encourage people to do another hour or 2 more.

  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,940
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    What about -

    - unlimited visas
    - for PAYE employment at £50K a year
    I don't have any problems with immigration at that level because they are clearly meeting a need that cannot be met more cheaply by the indigenous population.

    I have much more of a problem with the many casualties of our truly crap education system (for those other than the elite) finding themselves out competed for minimum wage jobs by people who are willing to undercut those entitlements because it is still way more than they can hope to get at home just so we can have cheap deliveries, care providers, crop pickers and cappuccinos. To me this is not only very poor economics, it is morally wrong with the better off professional classes exploiting those least able to provide for themselves with what amounts to unfair competition.

    The red wallers (and this is obviously a simplistic generalisation) voted with their wallets against the professional classes. They were absolutely right to do so. And the professionals now need to stop squealing and pay up.
    I was just thinking in terms of how to meet the desires of both groups. At least the expressed ones. Something that is an idea to think through in democratic politics.

    Group A : we want lots of HGV drivers
    Group B : we don't want wages driven down.

    Combine the wishes - A & B - We get lots of HGV drivers but at a high wage.

    Of course there is a sub-group of A who really want *cheap* drivers, but they daren't say so.

    So let the hauliers have as many drivers as they can find for £4,000 a month, full time, PAYE, no bullshit jobs.
  • PJH said:

    Update on petrol and empty shelves in suburban east London- in my local Sainsbury's this morning, the usual spotty gaps as per recently on the shelves, generally not as full as say 6 months ago but most things available. The most obvious gap was on the pasta aisle. I was able to get everything I wanted but I did take the last bottle of Bishop's Finger (other beers remain available).

    Outside, quite a few cars queueing for fuel, presumably on the basis that if the government says there is no need to panic buy, then one should buy.

    I like a Bishop's Finger but it is an almost guaranteed hangover.
    You should try Harvey's of Sussex. The 'Harvey's Head' hangover is infamous. A doctor friend once gave been some prescription-only anti-migraine pills to counter it but they made no difference.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Is it possible for the government to be any more incompetent? We are now pleading for an emergency agreement to provide "some kind of food that is lacking in England". What next - Care Packages?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/british-pm-johnson-wanted-emergency-food-deal-says-brazils-bolsonaro-embassy-disagrees/

    So now Bolsonaro is the undisputed vendor of truth in Scott's world? When what Bolsonaro has to say is flatly denied by others?

    Interesting to see what depths Scott is prepared to scrape each day.
    To me he becomes more desperate everyday on his quest to cancel Brexit.

    Indeed he does not seem to understand that his zealot attitude just entrenches his opposition

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112
    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right?

    Yes.

    And my question was are they already driving ambulances in Scotland, or in Northern Ireland?

    How stupid are you?
    Are ambulances tankers?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,814
    IshmaelZ said:

    Selebian said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Should thoroughly test the theory that Brits wont do this back breaking hard labour at any price.

    Followed swiftly by how willing we are to pay 20 quid for a head of broccoli...
    More likely, the broccoli just isn’t harvested and doesn’t make it to the shops. Nobody can buy that broccoli.

    Result:

    Less broccoli choice
    More expensive broccoli
    Fewer broccoli jobs
    More broccoli imports
    Fewer broccoli exports

    Now repeat across the entire economy.
    You forget: happier (if possibly less healthy) kids :wink:

    (although my two actually eat broccoli very happily - pretty much at the top of their veg preference list, maybe after sweetcorn - it's supposed to be something they hate, isn't it?)
    I once introduced a teenager to purple sprouting broccoli, which I prefer to calabrese and, indeed, regard as a seasonal delicacy. She was unimpressed, expecting "little trees".
    As a kid, we only ever had purple sprouting broccoli (from my dad's garden) and I prefer it, too. I was in my teens before I had calabrese, at a friend's house. Never had any luck growing either, myself - tried a couple of times and it bolts before there's a decent head. Everything else we've tried we've managed to grow well enough, so just shrugged and given up. Purple sprouting is rarely available to buy here and expensive, I do miss it.
    It's really easy to grow, delicious, first thing available in spring, and only bolts when you are fed up with it and have stopped harvesting. If you garden at all you should grow it
    Well, maybe we should try again then, perhaps out earlier, protected if necessary. Might be we've put the seedlings out too late (they were passed on from family as spares rather than grown by us) so they're not growing enough before going to seed...

    We do plenty else: carrots, peas, beans, pumpkins, peppers and tomatoes this year (plus fruit).
    I'm talking specifically about PSB - you said it was calabrese that was bolting? Difference being PSB overwinters and ripens in spring so bolting much less likely. ... Sorry now see I misread, you have had problems with both. But keep trying.
    Yep, we (and my dad who has grown for years, albeit down south and very different soil) were mystified by the bolting PSB. Will probably try it again though as the shop stuff is expensive and not so great. This time will probably glean all I can from my dad and other sources.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,584
    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,518
    MaxPB said:

    Are ambulances tankers?

    See above...

    If you don't know the answer, you can just say so
  • In other news I did enjoy the story about Brazil being asked to give us emergency supplies of turkeys. I hope the government doesn't bother begging for imports of sprouts, we can live without those.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    Once again, can they start today - if not, it doesn't solve the immediate problem.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,518

    his zealot attitude just entrenches his opposition

    What opposition?

    You won!

    I am merely posting the results.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,428
    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    Are ambulances tankers?

    See above...

    If you don't know the answer, you can just say so
    Someone who is qualified to drive a tanker could drive an ambulance, but then so is anyone who can drive a small truck (which the army have plenty of). The reverse isn't true.
  • DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
  • Scott_xP said:

    So none of the Brexit cheerleaders can answer the question as to whether the Army drivers they are relying on have already been deployed.

    There is no shame in admitting you don't know, lads.

    Its a bloody stupid question. Why would tanker drivers be the ones driving ambulances?
    You would expect they would be from the medics in the army
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,640
    edited September 2021
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    What about -

    - unlimited visas
    - for PAYE employment at £50K a year
    I don't have any problems with immigration at that level because they are clearly meeting a need that cannot be met more cheaply by the indigenous population.

    I have much more of a problem with the many casualties of our truly crap education system (for those other than the elite) finding themselves out competed for minimum wage jobs by people who are willing to undercut those entitlements because it is still way more than they can hope to get at home just so we can have cheap deliveries, care providers, crop pickers and cappuccinos. To me this is not only very poor economics, it is morally wrong with the better off professional classes exploiting those least able to provide for themselves with what amounts to unfair competition.

    The red wallers (and this is obviously a simplistic generalisation) voted with their wallets against the professional classes. They were absolutely right to do so. And the professionals now need to stop squealing and pay up.
    There was a large affluent block that voted for Brexit, and many poorer voters in places like London and Manchester who voted remain.
    Sure, I am reasonably affluent and I voted for Brexit. But the patronising rubbish that those on low wages only voted for Brexit because they were too stupid or did not see the benefits and disbenefits for themselves is based upon narrow self interest and a lack of comprehension about how too many in this country live.
    I would argue personally that anyone voting Brexit for higher wages was very unwise, given not only the history of Brexit as a campaign, but also the history of modern British Conservatism. Time will tell, but I've not seen anything substantial enough so far, in any wide enough range of jobs, to suggest to me that that scepticism was unfounded.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,628
    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    What about -

    - unlimited visas
    - for PAYE employment at £50K a year
    I don't have any problems with immigration at that level because they are clearly meeting a need that cannot be met more cheaply by the indigenous population.

    I have much more of a problem with the many casualties of our truly crap education system (for those other than the elite) finding themselves out competed for minimum wage jobs by people who are willing to undercut those entitlements because it is still way more than they can hope to get at home just so we can have cheap deliveries, care providers, crop pickers and cappuccinos. To me this is not only very poor economics, it is morally wrong with the better off professional classes exploiting those least able to provide for themselves with what amounts to unfair competition.

    The red wallers (and this is obviously a simplistic generalisation) voted with their wallets against the professional classes. They were absolutely right to do so. And the professionals now need to stop squealing and pay up.
    There was a large affluent block that voted for Brexit, and many poorer voters in places like London and Manchester who voted remain.
    Sure, I am reasonably affluent and I voted for Brexit. But the patronising rubbish that those on low wages only voted for Brexit because they were too stupid or did not see the benefits and disbenefits for themselves is based upon narrow self interest and a lack of comprehension about how too many in this country live.
    People on low wages stuck in shit jobs that leave them just enough money to be broke knew why they voted for Brexit. When the status quo is shit, vote for the alternative.

    That they were lied to and didn't know how things work isn't their fault, blame the people who lied to them and manipulated them.
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    Once again, can they start today - if not, it doesn't solve the immediate problem.
    I couldn't care less if the problem is solved immediately. Creative destruction is a good thing.

    But for the HGV-qualified yes they could start within a couple of weeks after giving notice for their existing employers if they're offered tempting enough pay and conditions - have you got a figure for how many of those there are in this country?
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    The period in which things doubled was last year as Covid kicked in and the people claiming were those who couldn't get money via the furlough and other schemes.

  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    And that is sensible and reasonable
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,428

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
  • Mr. B, China's certainly made some interesting decisions lately.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112
    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    Are ambulances tankers?

    See above...

    If you don't know the answer, you can just say so
    The army also has loads of other vehicle drivers, why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances? Think about it for more than three seconds, get that one brain cell working. I mean it's not even the same kind of driving, tanker driving is deliberately careful and slow, ambulance driving is the exact opposite. You wouldn't want a tanker driver at the wheel of an ambulance.

    But then again, maybe this will be that one thing to reverse Brexit. I mean last week it was CO2 production, the week before it was a submarine contract with Australia. How did those work out for you?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    I gave it you earlier - around 300,000. They are either retired line my uncle-in-law or doing other work. If "just pay more" was going to resurrect them it would already have happened.

    We can't force people to do a job they don't want to do.
  • Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    Who generally live in urban areas and not next to a turkey farm.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186

    Mr. B, China's certainly made some interesting decisions lately.

    Banning something of zero economic value, which is consuming power from about 100 coal powered power stations and is mainly used for exporting money abroad on the quiet sidestepping currency controls is not really interesting.

    China has been dropping hints for about 2 years.
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
    No, sadly it is not very loose at all.

    If people are paying Tax, NI and UC Taper then that's a 75% real tax rate. Working for only 25% of your wages isn't especially appealling to a lot of people.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    I gave it you earlier - around 300,000. They are either retired line my uncle-in-law or doing other work. If "just pay more" was going to resurrect them it would already have happened.

    We can't force people to do a job they don't want to do.
    Especially when a lot of them can't just start tomorrow for reasons I've already covered even if they wanted to.
  • Scott_xP said:

    his zealot attitude just entrenches his opposition

    What opposition?

    You won!

    I am merely posting the results.
    You are a zealot pursuing a cause and losing on the way
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,001
    edited September 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    Is it possible for the government to be any more incompetent? We are now pleading for an emergency agreement to provide "some kind of food that is lacking in England". What next - Care Packages?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/british-pm-johnson-wanted-emergency-food-deal-says-brazils-bolsonaro-embassy-disagrees/

    So now Bolsonaro is the undisputed vendor of truth in Scott's world? When what Bolsonaro has to say is flatly denied by others?

    Interesting to see what depths Scott is prepared to scrape each day.
    Sounds perfectly plausible to me. I can well imagine Boris raising the issue, confident in his ability to imbue it with sufficient post-Brexit, Global-Britain spin.
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    Once again, can they start today - if not, it doesn't solve the immediate problem.
    I couldn't care less if the problem is solved immediately. Creative destruction is a good thing.

    But for the HGV-qualified yes they could start within a couple of weeks after giving notice for their existing employers if they're offered tempting enough pay and conditions - have you got a figure for how many of those there are in this country?
    "Creative destruction" is probably not a good thing if you are a government minister. You may enjoy the creative destruction of an autumn and winter of discontent but ministers are hardly going to sit back and let havoc reign.

    And no matter how many times you post the "it only takes a few weeks to train a drive" guff, it still isn't true in the real world.

    If what you post was true, it would have been done. And we wouldn't be having to "debate" this any more.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    It is time to have a rethink of the benefits system and long term unemployment as well as the Byzantine system of in-work and housing benefits.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,518
    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    I gave it you earlier - around 300,000. They are either retired line my uncle-in-law or doing other work. If "just pay more" was going to resurrect them it would already have happened.

    We can't force people to do a job they don't want to do.
    No around 300,000 is how many are working in the sector.

    "Just pay more" hasn't resurrected them because the pay has barely risen in the sector. A UPS driver in the States can be on over $100,000 per annum and I've not seen anything like that being quoted in the UK right now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,628

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    Who generally live in urban areas and not next to a turkey farm.
    True, but I believe people who can work for a living, should. Near me there are loads of jobs going, including my favourite pub not being open as it needs staff. No one who can work should not be doing so right now.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    I gave it you earlier - around 300,000. They are either retired line my uncle-in-law or doing other work. If "just pay more" was going to resurrect them it would already have happened.

    We can't force people to do a job they don't want to do.
    Every job will have enough people happy to do it if the pay and conditions are good enough. That's what the supply curve is.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186
    edited September 2021

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
    No, sadly it is not very loose at all.

    If people are paying Tax, NI and UC Taper then that's a 75% real tax rate. Working for only 25% of your wages isn't especially appealling to a lot of people.
    Also a lot of people at the upper end of UC didn't know how valuable it was so didn't claim it even though they qualified.

    You would be surprised how many people don't claim benefits because of pride, embarrassment, privacy or inability to fill in the forms.

    The one thing Eastern European communities here were good at was ensuring everyone knew what they could claim and were given help by those in the know to on how to get it.
  • You may enjoy the creative destruction of an autumn and winter of discontent but ministers are hardly going to sit back and let havoc reign.

    Is that not what you think they've been doing for the last few years?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,428
    .

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
    No, sadly it is not very loose at all.

    If people are paying Tax, NI and UC Taper then that's a 75% real tax rate. Working for only 25% of your wages isn't especially appealling to a lot of people.
    Yeah, that's just not "about the same". Even with that marginal rate, it would be quite a significant increase in take-home pay.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112
    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    We need drivers to drive down country lanes really fast. So let's get tanker drivers who drive predominantly on motorways really slowly to do it. That's your train of thought right now.
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    Once again, can they start today - if not, it doesn't solve the immediate problem.
    I couldn't care less if the problem is solved immediately. Creative destruction is a good thing.

    But for the HGV-qualified yes they could start within a couple of weeks after giving notice for their existing employers if they're offered tempting enough pay and conditions - have you got a figure for how many of those there are in this country?
    "Creative destruction" is probably not a good thing if you are a government minister. You may enjoy the creative destruction of an autumn and winter of discontent but ministers are hardly going to sit back and let havoc reign.

    And no matter how many times you post the "it only takes a few weeks to train a drive" guff, it still isn't true in the real world.

    If what you post was true, it would have been done. And we wouldn't be having to "debate" this any more.
    Its not been done because the pay hasn't risen enough. Because the employers are convinced if they just sit back and let this drag out they can keep paying shit wages.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 18,948

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    The proles are a lot of workshy layabouts for whom National Service would do a world of good

    OR

    The wages currently on offer are pitched at a level where they are worth accepting if you are exchanging them mostly into zloty and sending them home, not so if you are an English prole living in England, AND there are benefit considerations I know little about and you less, which affect the decision

    "Go figure" ffs.
  • Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    Zealot nonsense
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,561
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    After the tory cuts to the transport corps the RLC were left with one bulk fuel transport regiment (based in the 6 counties) so maybe 60 to 80 at a push if they stop doing absolute everything else, cancel all leave, etc.

    Logistics functions have recently been a prime target for cuts as they are not glamorous or famous so binning them doesn't create much backlash. Until we need them obviously.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186
    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    The army don't do volunteering like that - it's you are reassigned here next week.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,428
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    We need drivers to drive down country lanes really fast. So let's get tanker drivers who drive predominantly on motorways really slowly to do it. That's your train of thought right now.
    Also their assignments can change. Just because they were driving an ambulance today doesn't mean they have to do that for the next x months. Even if tanker drivers were driving ambulances, you could just replace them with anyone with a C license. I'm sure there isn't a shortage of those in the army.
  • RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
    No, sadly it is not very loose at all.

    If people are paying Tax, NI and UC Taper then that's a 75% real tax rate. Working for only 25% of your wages isn't especially appealling to a lot of people.
    Yeah, that's just not "about the same". Even with that marginal rate, it would be quite a significant increase in take-home pay.
    Yes it is sorry about the same. When you consider extra costs associated with working more then that's not that significant an increase in take-home pay.

    Bear in mind that during furlough people got 80% of their wages which was considered OK by many as they didn't have to pay extra costs like commuting etc - if you can get 80-90% of what you get working 40 hours a week by only working 16 hours a week then a lot of people will be tempted to do that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 40,994

    Mr. B, China's certainly made some interesting decisions lately.

    That's not the half of it...

    China’s new D.C. ambassador: We’re just a misunderstood democracy
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/23/china-new-dc-ambassador-democracy-513969
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,619
    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    It could explain why we have so many seemingly impossible to fill job adverts, a lot of people are happy with what they are currently getting on 14-20 hours of work a week.

    No wonder the Treasury is so desperate to get rid of the £20 uplift - they may see it as a trigger to encourage people working a few more hours.
    At the same time rumour has it that the point at which the taper kicks in may be raised slightly to encourage people to do another hour or 2 more.

    If you're doing 14 to 20 hours on UC for any length of time, you ought to be getting hassle from your work coach. Unless you negotiated a specific exemption in your conditionality before your claim went through. Caring responsibility would be one such, although often claimants are unaware of the whole concept of conditionality. It isn't made clear.
    There are simply too many part-time jobs. Many of which are shifts, so could be 14 hours flexibly over 7 days between 6 am and 10 pm. My local Spar is advertising for just such. And many don't offer an hour or two more.
    So, then you have to find two 16 hour jobs which fit exactly around each other.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    We need drivers to drive down country lanes really fast. So let's get tanker drivers who drive predominantly on motorways really slowly to do it. That's your train of thought right now.
    Also their assignments can change. Just because they were driving an ambulance today doesn't mean they have to do that for the next x months. Even if tanker drivers were driving ambulances, you could just replace them with anyone with a C license. I'm sure there isn't a shortage of those in the army.
    I know that, you know that. Scott thinks he's finally got that one issue that will reverse Brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,428

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
    No, sadly it is not very loose at all.

    If people are paying Tax, NI and UC Taper then that's a 75% real tax rate. Working for only 25% of your wages isn't especially appealling to a lot of people.
    Yeah, that's just not "about the same". Even with that marginal rate, it would be quite a significant increase in take-home pay.
    Yes it is sorry about the same. When you consider extra costs associated with working more then that's not that significant an increase in take-home pay.

    Bear in mind that during furlough people got 80% of their wages which was considered OK by many as they didn't have to pay extra costs like commuting etc - if you can get 80-90% of what you get working 40 hours a week by only working 16 hours a week then a lot of people will be tempted to do that.
    I'm sorry, but a ~50% increase in take home pay is not "about the same".
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261
    Scott_xP said:

    his zealot attitude just entrenches his opposition

    What opposition?

    You won!

    I am merely posting the results.
    With you we never know which are real and which are fake. Once bitten....
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    What about -

    - unlimited visas
    - for PAYE employment at £50K a year
    I don't have any problems with immigration at that level because they are clearly meeting a need that cannot be met more cheaply by the indigenous population.

    I have much more of a problem with the many casualties of our truly crap education system (for those other than the elite) finding themselves out competed for minimum wage jobs by people who are willing to undercut those entitlements because it is still way more than they can hope to get at home just so we can have cheap deliveries, care providers, crop pickers and cappuccinos. To me this is not only very poor economics, it is morally wrong with the better off professional classes exploiting those least able to provide for themselves with what amounts to unfair competition.

    The red wallers (and this is obviously a simplistic generalisation) voted with their wallets against the professional classes. They were absolutely right to do so. And the professionals now need to stop squealing and pay up.
    There was a large affluent block that voted for Brexit, and many poorer voters in places like London and Manchester who voted remain.
    Sure, I am reasonably affluent and I voted for Brexit. But the patronising rubbish that those on low wages only voted for Brexit because they were too stupid or did not see the benefits and disbenefits for themselves is based upon narrow self interest and a lack of comprehension about how too many in this country live.
    People on low wages stuck in shit jobs that leave them just enough money to be broke knew why they voted for Brexit. When the status quo is shit, vote for the alternative.

    That they were lied to and didn't know how things work isn't their fault, blame the people who lied to them and manipulated them.
    There were lies in both directions, as there are in any election campaign. Working class people are not easily manipulated fools. They know this happens and look at the arguments and counter arguments on both side with a healthy degree of scepticism. They didn't vote for Brexit because 350m a week was large enough to convince them but 270m wasn't. They voted for it because they believe the UK parliament is better at making laws for the UK interest than the European Commission and assemblies are. And also because they thought cutting off some times of immigration would help push up wages and conditions. They are right on both.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,584
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    After the tory cuts to the transport corps the RLC were left with one bulk fuel transport regiment (based in the 6 counties) so maybe 60 to 80 at a push if they stop doing absolute everything else, cancel all leave, etc.

    Logistics functions have recently been a prime target for cuts as they are not glamorous or famous so binning them doesn't create much backlash. Until we need them obviously.
    Christ.

    "You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics.” – General Dwight D. Eisenhower.

    Will they never learn?
  • Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    You really are thick and ignorant aren't you?

    The army deploys soldiers they don't volunteer and they certainly don't prevaricate on redeployments if they need to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,074
    The correct response I think would be a time limited special visa exemption. That would solve the immediate crisis but also give employers notice that they need to up their game
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 40,994
    eek said:

    Mr. B, China's certainly made some interesting decisions lately.

    Banning something of zero economic value, which is consuming power from about 100 coal powered power stations and is mainly used for exporting money abroad on the quiet sidestepping currency controls is not really interesting.

    China has been dropping hints for about 2 years.
    It's been of non negligible economic value if you're Chinese and want to conduct financial transactions outside of the control of the Chinese government, I suspect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 40,994

    Scott_xP said:

    his zealot attitude just entrenches his opposition

    What opposition?

    You won!

    I am merely posting the results.
    You are a zealot pursuing a cause and losing on the way
    Enough of the ad homs, Big-G.
    It's beneath you.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 18,948
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/23/chill-winds-signal-second-winter-discontent-coming/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10023181/Drivers-warned-not-let-fuel-tanks-quarter-ahead-winter-discontent-fuel-crisis.html

    But the Guardian goes with the rather mild "BP closes some petrol stations amid HGV driver shortage." Why is the right wing press so unenamoured of the government today?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    After the tory cuts to the transport corps the RLC were left with one bulk fuel transport regiment (based in the 6 counties) so maybe 60 to 80 at a push if they stop doing absolute everything else, cancel all leave, etc.

    Logistics functions have recently been a prime target for cuts as they are not glamorous or famous so binning them doesn't create much backlash. Until we need them obviously.
    No doubt and frankly I'm not sure if getting army drivers in will really make any real difference. I'm just taking issue with the idea that a - the army *only* has those drivers, b - that they can't be reassigned at short notice and c - that they couldn't also reassign other drivers to drive the ambulances.
  • England's R number .8 to 1
  • Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    After the tory cuts to the transport corps the RLC were left with one bulk fuel transport regiment (based in the 6 counties) so maybe 60 to 80 at a push if they stop doing absolute everything else, cancel all leave, etc.

    Logistics functions have recently been a prime target for cuts as they are not glamorous or famous so binning them doesn't create much backlash. Until we need them obviously.
    We must move the drivers of Army Detachment Steiner to all corners of the nation NOW!

    Embarrassed shuffling in Downing St cabinet room ensues.
  • Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    Who generally live in urban areas and not next to a turkey farm.
    True, but I believe people who can work for a living, should. Near me there are loads of jobs going, including my favourite pub not being open as it needs staff. No one who can work should not be doing so right now.
    As always its a balancing act. Many of the people needing work have kids and the work (like your pub) are shifts. Iain Duncan Smith made similar comments back in the day up in Merthyr Tydfil - loads of jobs in Cardiff. Great! But how does that work if you're in the valleys and you have kids and theres no childcare or public transport to cover shifts.

    And farms? Out in the sticks not where the unemployed are. How do we get people from the towns out into the sticks and back every day?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,428
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/23/chill-winds-signal-second-winter-discontent-coming/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10023181/Drivers-warned-not-let-fuel-tanks-quarter-ahead-winter-discontent-fuel-crisis.html

    But the Guardian goes with the rather mild "BP closes some petrol stations amid HGV driver shortage." Why is the right wing press so unenamoured of the government today?

    Clickbait.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    You really are thick and ignorant aren't you?

    The army deploys soldiers they don't volunteer and they certainly don't prevaricate on redeployments if they need to.
    As my friend in the RAF says "I go where I'm sent".
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    Who generally live in urban areas and not next to a turkey farm.
    True, but I believe people who can work for a living, should. Near me there are loads of jobs going, including my favourite pub not being open as it needs staff. No one who can work should not be doing so right now.
    As always its a balancing act. Many of the people needing work have kids and the work (like your pub) are shifts. Iain Duncan Smith made similar comments back in the day up in Merthyr Tydfil - loads of jobs in Cardiff. Great! But how does that work if you're in the valleys and you have kids and theres no childcare or public transport to cover shifts.

    And farms? Out in the sticks not where the unemployed are. How do we get people from the towns out into the sticks and back every day?
    Was it here or elsewhere that I remember a conversation about Heck Sausages complaining about a lack of workers in an area where the average house price was 25 times what they were paying (this is Bedale, North Yorkshire by the way, not London)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 18,948

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    why would the tanker drivers be driving ambulances?

    Why wouldn't they be?

    "We need drivers. Any volunteers?

    "Sorry, Sir, can't do it. I need to be kept in reserve in case the Government also runs out of fuel next week..."
    You really are thick and ignorant aren't you?

    The army deploys soldiers they don't volunteer and they certainly don't prevaricate on redeployments if they need to.
    The point is salvageable though, no?

    "Sergeant, nominate six volunteers for ambulance driving next week."

    "Sorry sah, the usual suspects has all been nominated for tanker driving duties."

    No to mention that the army has HGV drivers and ambulance drivers because it has HGVs and ambulances. We putting the defence of the realm on hold?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,247
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    Has it? Maybe. Probably. Possibly. Would like to see the numbers.

    Rule One of army drivers; stay well the fuck away from them.

    The thought of a squaddie towing a huge IED across the highways and byways of the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination a good idea.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,619
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    It is time to have a rethink of the benefits system and long term unemployment as well as the Byzantine system of in-work and housing benefits.
    That is what Universal Credit is?
  • PJH said:

    Update on petrol and empty shelves in suburban east London- in my local Sainsbury's this morning, the usual spotty gaps as per recently on the shelves, generally not as full as say 6 months ago but most things available. The most obvious gap was on the pasta aisle. I was able to get everything I wanted but I did take the last bottle of Bishop's Finger (other beers remain available).

    Outside, quite a few cars queueing for fuel, presumably on the basis that if the government says there is no need to panic buy, then one should buy.

    I like a Bishop's Finger but it is an almost guaranteed hangover.
    You should try Harvey's of Sussex. The 'Harvey's Head' hangover is infamous. A doctor friend once gave been some prescription-only anti-migraine pills to counter it but they made no difference.
    Strongly disagree with that. I've drunk over 10,000 pints of Harvey's bitter over the last 20 years (10 pints a week, so 520 a year) and am yet to have a hangover - even when I consume the 10 pints a week over 1 or 2 days of that week. It's the red wine that gets me.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    Has it? Maybe. Probably. Possibly. Would like to see the numbers.

    Rule One of army drivers; stay well the fuck away from them.

    The thought of a squaddie towing a huge IED across the highways and byways of the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination a good idea.
    It definitely had the last time we had fuel shortages and they got wheeled out. Though Dura_Ace says they've been cut since, which is also unsurprising given the Tory government.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,752
    edited September 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    his zealot attitude just entrenches his opposition

    What opposition?

    You won!

    I am merely posting the results.
    You are a zealot pursuing a cause and losing on the way
    Enough of the ad homs, Big-G.
    It's beneath you.
    I agree and I apologise to @Scott_P

    However his postings are tedious and polarise views when the problems are very much more complex
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,584

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    What about -

    - unlimited visas
    - for PAYE employment at £50K a year
    I don't have any problems with immigration at that level because they are clearly meeting a need that cannot be met more cheaply by the indigenous population.

    I have much more of a problem with the many casualties of our truly crap education system (for those other than the elite) finding themselves out competed for minimum wage jobs by people who are willing to undercut those entitlements because it is still way more than they can hope to get at home just so we can have cheap deliveries, care providers, crop pickers and cappuccinos. To me this is not only very poor economics, it is morally wrong with the better off professional classes exploiting those least able to provide for themselves with what amounts to unfair competition.

    The red wallers (and this is obviously a simplistic generalisation) voted with their wallets against the professional classes. They were absolutely right to do so. And the professionals now need to stop squealing and pay up.
    There was a large affluent block that voted for Brexit, and many poorer voters in places like London and Manchester who voted remain.
    Sure, I am reasonably affluent and I voted for Brexit. But the patronising rubbish that those on low wages only voted for Brexit because they were too stupid or did not see the benefits and disbenefits for themselves is based upon narrow self interest and a lack of comprehension about how too many in this country live.
    People on low wages stuck in shit jobs that leave them just enough money to be broke knew why they voted for Brexit. When the status quo is shit, vote for the alternative.

    That they were lied to and didn't know how things work isn't their fault, blame the people who lied to them and manipulated them.
    Yet more patronising rubbish. They recognised that they were being shafted and voted accordingly in their own interest. And it was.
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    Once again, can they start today - if not, it doesn't solve the immediate problem.
    I couldn't care less if the problem is solved immediately. Creative destruction is a good thing.

    But for the HGV-qualified yes they could start within a couple of weeks after giving notice for their existing employers if they're offered tempting enough pay and conditions - have you got a figure for how many of those there are in this country?
    "Creative destruction" is probably not a good thing if you are a government minister. You may enjoy the creative destruction of an autumn and winter of discontent but ministers are hardly going to sit back and let havoc reign.

    And no matter how many times you post the "it only takes a few weeks to train a drive" guff, it still isn't true in the real world.

    If what you post was true, it would have been done. And we wouldn't be having to "debate" this any more.
    Its not been done because the pay hasn't risen enough. Because the employers are convinced if they just sit back and let this drag out they can keep paying shit wages.
    If you say so. Our logistics firm has done pay rises of 2.5% then 12% then 11% then 8% since April and still can't keep drivers. Every time you say "just pay more" some other firm offers even more and they're back to square one. How much is "enough" and how do you know someone won't then beat that with "more than enough"?

    You have a shortage of drivers. So you increase wages. So you have a shortage of drivers. So you increase wages. So you have a shortage of drivers. etc etc etc. Unless more drivers are added to the labour pool there is no fix by wage increases because pay drivers a gazillion pounds and you still don't have enough.

    Unless you manage to attract in new drivers who can miraculously be trained in a week. Which you can't.

    It really is Blackadder teaching Baldrick adding when discussing this with you. Your theory is very nice but isn't the real world. If it was the real world then it would have been done to fix the problems.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,584
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    Has it? Maybe. Probably. Possibly. Would like to see the numbers.

    Rule One of army drivers; stay well the fuck away from them.

    The thought of a squaddie towing a huge IED across the highways and byways of the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination a good idea.
    That made me laugh, I must say.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    Who generally live in urban areas and not next to a turkey farm.
    True, but I believe people who can work for a living, should. Near me there are loads of jobs going, including my favourite pub not being open as it needs staff. No one who can work should not be doing so right now.
    As always its a balancing act. Many of the people needing work have kids and the work (like your pub) are shifts. Iain Duncan Smith made similar comments back in the day up in Merthyr Tydfil - loads of jobs in Cardiff. Great! But how does that work if you're in the valleys and you have kids and theres no childcare or public transport to cover shifts.

    And farms? Out in the sticks not where the unemployed are. How do we get people from the towns out into the sticks and back every day?
    Was it here or elsewhere that I remember a conversation about Heck Sausages complaining about a lack of workers in an area where the average house price was 25 times what they were paying (this is Bedale, North Yorkshire by the way, not London)
    Was that before or after they managed to land a very, very special endorsement?

    image

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,112
    No, they're wrong. Scott shared loads of blue tock FBPE twatters saying this was only happening in the UK. Fuck what the gas spot prices are and fuck the idea that it's a global market, this is going to reverse Brexit so it's because Boris went to the North sea and set fire to the gas pumps and pipelines. Brexit. Boris. Brexit. BREEEEEXIT.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    It is time to have a rethink of the benefits system and long term unemployment as well as the Byzantine system of in-work and housing benefits.
    That is what Universal Credit is?
    Well it was what UC was meant to be but then it got gutted multiple times.

    When you start looking at this area you start to see a whole lot of that's wrong but God knows' how you fix that from here.

    A prime example is the 30 hours of free nursery / childcare. Great idea but when it was 15 hours its was possible to subsidise the very low rate the Government paid for those 15 hours with fees from those parents wanting more than 15 hours.

    That's just not possible if the Government is paying the same low rate for 30 hours (many people are happy with just that and there is no way you can hide the uplift required in the remaining 5 hours).

    End result a lot of nurseries are closing because they cannot afford to keep going. And more will close because wages are minimum wage (as they really can't be any higher) and better paying work is available.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,344
    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
    No, sadly it is not very loose at all.

    If people are paying Tax, NI and UC Taper then that's a 75% real tax rate. Working for only 25% of your wages isn't especially appealling to a lot of people.
    Yeah, that's just not "about the same". Even with that marginal rate, it would be quite a significant increase in take-home pay.
    Linguistically you're right, of course. But even as a fan of high taxes for good public services, I'd say that 75+% tax rates really drastically reduce willingness to work (and to report casual work truthfully).
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,299
    Just been up to Sainsbury’s to get some lunch, all anecdotal of course, garage on the A167 had cars queueing onto the A167. Not seen that before. The Sainsbury’s garage at the ArnIson Centre seemed a little busier than I’d see this time of day.

    As for the supermarket the aisles were, as usual full
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,074

    England's R number .8 to 1

    Its not though is it - these statistics are always trotted out as if they are current when they're in fact some time behind. The current r is slightly above 1 as cases are rising a bit.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Someone just pointed this stat out to me

    The number of people on Universal Credit was 6.0 million on 14 January 2021, up 2% from 10 December 2020. There has been a 98% (3.0 million) increase in the number of people on Universal Credit from 3 million on 12 March 2020, the last count date before the coronavirus pandemic.

    It's on https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-january-2021

    I wonder if Covid means there are a whole set of families who have now discovered how much easier life is on Universal credit where you can often end up with the similar money for far less work and have discovered a better work / life balance due to the reduced hours they worked over the past year or so.

    Or have more and more people simply been switched from other, now superseded, benefits to UC over that time? I think it is almost certainly the latter. We have not doubled the number of people on benefits at a time when employment is at a record.
    We may have done. If people have realised they can get about the same income on 16 hours as they can on about 40 hours then the Treasury has created the rod for its own back.
    A very loose definition of "about the same" there.
    No, sadly it is not very loose at all.

    If people are paying Tax, NI and UC Taper then that's a 75% real tax rate. Working for only 25% of your wages isn't especially appealling to a lot of people.
    Yeah, that's just not "about the same". Even with that marginal rate, it would be quite a significant increase in take-home pay.
    Yes it is sorry about the same. When you consider extra costs associated with working more then that's not that significant an increase in take-home pay.

    Bear in mind that during furlough people got 80% of their wages which was considered OK by many as they didn't have to pay extra costs like commuting etc - if you can get 80-90% of what you get working 40 hours a week by only working 16 hours a week then a lot of people will be tempted to do that.
    I'm sorry, but a ~50% increase in take home pay is not "about the same".
    Its not an ~50% increase in take home pay. How did you calculate that? That's the problem with the system is that the take home pay barely changes because most of it gets tapered or taxed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,940
    MaxPB said:

    No, they're wrong. Scott shared loads of blue tock FBPE twatters saying this was only happening in the UK. Fuck what the gas spot prices are and fuck the idea that it's a global market, this is going to reverse Brexit so it's because Boris went to the North sea and set fire to the gas pumps and pipelines. Brexit. Boris. Brexit. BREEEEEXIT.
    I think you forgot "reliance on that nice Mr. Putin" somewhere in the mix....
  • eekeek Posts: 20,186
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    Has it? Maybe. Probably. Possibly. Would like to see the numbers.

    Rule One of army drivers; stay well the fuck away from them.

    The thought of a squaddie towing a huge IED across the highways and byways of the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination a good idea.
    It definitely had the last time we had fuel shortages and they got wheeled out. Though Dura_Ace says they've been cut since, which is also unsurprising given the Tory government.
    It's also been 20 or so years and since then the Army has shrunk somewhat. And clearing out logistics is far less painful than closing another regiment down.
  • All I want to know is which way the turkeys are going to vote at Christmas.
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    Once again, can they start today - if not, it doesn't solve the immediate problem.
    I couldn't care less if the problem is solved immediately. Creative destruction is a good thing.

    But for the HGV-qualified yes they could start within a couple of weeks after giving notice for their existing employers if they're offered tempting enough pay and conditions - have you got a figure for how many of those there are in this country?
    "Creative destruction" is probably not a good thing if you are a government minister. You may enjoy the creative destruction of an autumn and winter of discontent but ministers are hardly going to sit back and let havoc reign.

    And no matter how many times you post the "it only takes a few weeks to train a drive" guff, it still isn't true in the real world.

    If what you post was true, it would have been done. And we wouldn't be having to "debate" this any more.
    Its not been done because the pay hasn't risen enough. Because the employers are convinced if they just sit back and let this drag out they can keep paying shit wages.
    If you say so. Our logistics firm has done pay rises of 2.5% then 12% then 11% then 8% since April and still can't keep drivers. Every time you say "just pay more" some other firm offers even more and they're back to square one. How much is "enough" and how do you know someone won't then beat that with "more than enough"?

    You have a shortage of drivers. So you increase wages. So you have a shortage of drivers. So you increase wages. So you have a shortage of drivers. etc etc etc. Unless more drivers are added to the labour pool there is no fix by wage increases because pay drivers a gazillion pounds and you still don't have enough.

    Unless you manage to attract in new drivers who can miraculously be trained in a week. Which you can't.

    It really is Blackadder teaching Baldrick adding when discussing this with you. Your theory is very nice but isn't the real world. If it was the real world then it would have been done to fix the problems.
    You think low rises not even in the teens of percent are "enough"? How preposterous.

    If you can't fill the vacancies then how about 40%? 80%? 100%?

    Whatever it takes until the vacancies are filled. Yes if you think an 11% rise is sufficient to get people to return to the sector I can see why you're struggling with this.
  • @StuartKLau
    Diplomats on Asia from several EU member states said they were not informed about EU foreign policy chief Borrell’s strategic dialogue next week with Chinese FM Wang Yi, until they saw it from the EU’s public calendar

    The dialogue will take place 4 days after Biden’s Quad summit


    https://twitter.com/StuartKLau/status/1441353746735190030
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,619
    Fact is. It's easy to blame the unemployed.
    But I'm still seeing adverts for zero hour contracts, as well as the Spar jobs I quoted above, offering only part-time hours, but needing to be available every hour God sends, 7 days a week, thus negating any advantage of part-time working for those with other responsibilities.
    If folk can't get staff, then how about contracts with regular, stated hours, sick pay, etc. Rather than expecting to have folk come in at your convenience and not pay them when it isn't.
    If you need someone desperately short term, there are always temp agencies.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,561
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    Has it? Maybe. Probably. Possibly. Would like to see the numbers.

    Rule One of army drivers; stay well the fuck away from them.

    The thought of a squaddie towing a huge IED across the highways and byways of the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination a good idea.
    RLC = Recruit's Last Chance
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,584

    All I want to know is which way the turkeys are going to vote at Christmas.

    I think we can be fairly confident the voting will be 52:48 whichever way it goes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,299

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Breaking

    Key cabinet ministers meeting this afternoon to address driver shortages and visa scheme

    If I was a lorry driver who had just got my first decent wage increase for a long time I would be seriously pissed.

    There are 6m EU citizens who already have rights to be here. I would be astonished if this did not include tens of thousands of drivers. But if they are being offered better wages elsewhere that is where they will go.
    Why would they be pissed? This won't force down their wages, and it will improve conditions as the sector won't be under such massive pressure.
    Like it has improved conditions and wages over the last 20 years? They have finally got a negotiation position but that is apparently not acceptable and must now be undermined. I am sure that they should just be grateful, or something.

    If they are lucky the shortfall of drivers in the EU will mean that the competition is limited.
    We aren't talking about flooding the market, just a limited time visa. Which will fill roles that can't otherwise be filled. It can't drive down the wages of non-existent drivers.

    Again, paying the drivers more and improving working conditions is a Good Thing. But doing so will not fill the immediate term shortage of drivers because there are not enough drivers.
    Yes there are. There are more than enough drivers in this country, just many don't work in the sector due to poor pay and conditions.

    Do you have a figure for how many HGV qualified drivers there are in the country?

    Not to forget that it only takes a few weeks to become HGV qualified and there's over 32 million drivers in this country.
    Once again, can they start today - if not, it doesn't solve the immediate problem.
    I couldn't care less if the problem is solved immediately. Creative destruction is a good thing.

    But for the HGV-qualified yes they could start within a couple of weeks after giving notice for their existing employers if they're offered tempting enough pay and conditions - have you got a figure for how many of those there are in this country?
    "Creative destruction" is probably not a good thing if you are a government minister. You may enjoy the creative destruction of an autumn and winter of discontent but ministers are hardly going to sit back and let havoc reign.

    And no matter how many times you post the "it only takes a few weeks to train a drive" guff, it still isn't true in the real world.

    If what you post was true, it would have been done. And we wouldn't be having to "debate" this any more.
    Its not been done because the pay hasn't risen enough. Because the employers are convinced if they just sit back and let this drag out they can keep paying shit wages.
    If you say so. Our logistics firm has done pay rises of 2.5% then 12% then 11% then 8% since April and still can't keep drivers. Every time you say "just pay more" some other firm offers even more and they're back to square one. How much is "enough" and how do you know someone won't then beat that with "more than enough"?

    You have a shortage of drivers. So you increase wages. So you have a shortage of drivers. So you increase wages. So you have a shortage of drivers. etc etc etc. Unless more drivers are added to the labour pool there is no fix by wage increases because pay drivers a gazillion pounds and you still don't have enough.

    Unless you manage to attract in new drivers who can miraculously be trained in a week. Which you can't.

    It really is Blackadder teaching Baldrick adding when discussing this with you. Your theory is very nice but isn't the real world. If it was the real world then it would have been done to fix the problems.
    If they have had to offer that level of increase and still can’t keep staff they must have been chronic under payers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,247
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    People need to calm down. The government will bring in army drivers if need be

    Are these the same Army drivers that are driving ambulances in Scotland?

    Or the same ones being sent to Northern Ireland?
    You do realise that the army has got tanker drivers, right? How stupid are you?
    Has it? Maybe. Probably. Possibly. Would like to see the numbers.

    Rule One of army drivers; stay well the fuck away from them.

    The thought of a squaddie towing a huge IED across the highways and byways of the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination a good idea.
    It definitely had the last time we had fuel shortages and they got wheeled out. Though Dura_Ace says they've been cut since, which is also unsurprising given the Tory government.
    All big cuts of HMF are undertaken by the Cons.

    As for army "tanker drivers" it would be interesting to see the numbers.

    If Army tanker drivers are a thing then surely the rational thing for them to do would be to resign and start working for the private sector.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A turkey farmer on LBC right now

    His industry has been crippled by lack of EU workers

    So he, like others, is having to reduce turkey supply

    Which means there will be a UK shortage of turkeys

    Which means…

    Supermarkets will fill the shortage by buying…

    TURKEYS FROM THE EU


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1441356626720555014

    And yet there are still unemployed people in the UK. Go figure.
    Who generally live in urban areas and not next to a turkey farm.
    True, but I believe people who can work for a living, should. Near me there are loads of jobs going, including my favourite pub not being open as it needs staff. No one who can work should not be doing so right now.
    As always its a balancing act. Many of the people needing work have kids and the work (like your pub) are shifts. Iain Duncan Smith made similar comments back in the day up in Merthyr Tydfil - loads of jobs in Cardiff. Great! But how does that work if you're in the valleys and you have kids and theres no childcare or public transport to cover shifts.

    And farms? Out in the sticks not where the unemployed are. How do we get people from the towns out into the sticks and back every day?
    Was it here or elsewhere that I remember a conversation about Heck Sausages complaining about a lack of workers in an area where the average house price was 25 times what they were paying (this is Bedale, North Yorkshire by the way, not London)
    Probably. Heck are based in an expensive part of the world. Profit margins in the sector aren't generous, and like so many food companies who have diversified into Vegan its a black hole for R&D cash.

    Assume that they increased factory operatives pay 50%. Thats only 1 line on their P&L but will make the costings for individual products not work. So whopping price increases are needed which the supermarkets are very reluctant to accept as consumers largely won't pay.

    In practice if Heck did stick 50% on their operatives salaries they would need less of them as they would price their products out of the market.
  • Bloomberg - CHINA ENERGY CRUNCH: The electricity shortages in China are worsening, and widening geographically. It's getting so bad Beijing is now asking some food processors (like soybean crushing plants) to shut down

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1441335213326409728
  • PJH said:

    Update on petrol and empty shelves in suburban east London- in my local Sainsbury's this morning, the usual spotty gaps as per recently on the shelves, generally not as full as say 6 months ago but most things available. The most obvious gap was on the pasta aisle. I was able to get everything I wanted but I did take the last bottle of Bishop's Finger (other beers remain available).

    Outside, quite a few cars queueing for fuel, presumably on the basis that if the government says there is no need to panic buy, then one should buy.

    I like a Bishop's Finger but it is an almost guaranteed hangover.
    You should try Harvey's of Sussex. The 'Harvey's Head' hangover is infamous. A doctor friend once gave been some prescription-only anti-migraine pills to counter it but they made no difference.
    Strongly disagree with that. I've drunk over 10,000 pints of Harvey's bitter over the last 20 years (10 pints a week, so 520 a year) and am yet to have a hangover - even when I consume the 10 pints a week over 1 or 2 days of that week. It's the red wine that gets me.....
    Really? Respect is due!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,681
    Pulpstar said:

    England's R number .8 to 1

    Its not though is it - these statistics are always trotted out as if they are current when they're in fact some time behind. The current r is slightly above 1 as cases are rising a bit.
    It's effectively a 2 week old figure because it is to weekending last Friday.

    The existence of the Timely-vs-Accurate data tradeoff is the Covid conundrum that people still seem to have trouble grasping.
This discussion has been closed.