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Keir has a net approval lead over Boris – but where it matters least – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 21 in General
imageKeir has a net approval lead over Boris – but where it matters least – politicalbetting.com

The above chart has been created from the approval rating data in the weekend Opinium poll for the Observer when Johnson was up a bit from his worst ever approval rating as PM earlier in the month. He’s trailing Starmer in most regions but that is deceptive in electoral terms. For Starmer has a significant edge in the regions where there are fewer marginals but it is much closer in England outside London. Indeed Johnson has a lead in the Midlands.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    First?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    I dont have a very high opinion of johnson or starmer. Be interesting to see how these figures change after party conferences.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,024
    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.
  • Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    edited September 21
    Interesting analysis thank you.

    It would be interesting to see the same analysis done with the gross approval ratings. After all as you and other experts who track this have said before it's the gross approval ratings that matter most.

    Has Starmer cut through more or less where there are marginals? Or is there no difference?
  • Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,207

    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I see the logic for that view - Johnson has given way in unpopular things before when the solution is to borrow more money - but there is a need for more money for Health and Social Care, and few political palatable alternatives for raising it.

    One of Johnson's strengths is a focus on what is important to the voters and saying whatever is necessary to satisfy that.

    He will know that the NHS needs to be noticeably on the road to recovery by the time of the next general election - and he'll want the financial headroom to announce a pre-election tax cut. Income tax is the tax of choice for cuts, though, not NI.
  • Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I see the logic for that view - Johnson has given way in unpopular things before when the solution is to borrow more money - but there is a need for more money for Health and Social Care, and few political palatable alternatives for raising it.

    One of Johnson's strengths is a focus on what is important to the voters and saying whatever is necessary to satisfy that.

    He will know that the NHS needs to be noticeably on the road to recovery by the time of the next general election - and he'll want the financial headroom to announce a pre-election tax cut. Income tax is the tax of choice for cuts, though, not NI.
    Adding insult to injury if there's an Income Tax cut. Further ratcheting tax burden unequally onto those who work and away from those who don't.

    We should be doing the opposite.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,131
    What's going on in the Midlands? Why do they love Boris Johnson so much?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    edited September 21
    South 21 million
    North 15 million
    Midlands 10.1 million
    London 9 million
    Scotland 5.5 million
    Wales 3.1 million


    Lab targets from Con (Marginals to 6% swing - Starmer comfortably in power)

    26 North
    13 Midlands
    13 South
    9 Wales
    4 London
    0 Scotland

    1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
    2 4 7 8 9 13 Midlands
    0 0 2 6 9 13 South
    1 3 3 4 4 4 London
    5 9 11 16 21 26 North
    0 0 0 0 0 0 Scotland
    0 3 5 8 8 9 Wales

    8 19 28 42 51 65

    Will have to see what changes if/when boundaries change but the North of England is the most important battleground, not the Midlands.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    edited September 21
    rkrkrk said:

    What's going on in the Midlands? Why do they love Boris Johnson so much?

    Or why haven't they seen through him?

    Or is that a yet?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,207
    On topic. What I'd be interested in is seeing the changes with, say, the final opinion poll of the GE2019 campaign.

    Assuming there's a swing in Starmer's favour compared to Corbyn, is this even across the regions, or is it concentrated in London and the South?

    A disproportionate swing in the North could be quite handy for winning back seats recently lost. There's been other recent evidence that the Midlands is core vote territory for Johnsonism, so I don't think the lead there is particularly significant or surprising.
  • rkrkrk said:

    What's going on in the Midlands? Why do they love Boris Johnson so much?

    He's addressing their concerns?

    And Starmer isn't?
  • Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    More importantly, the poll tax started life with better polling than that: 43-39 in favour;
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
    Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    The Midlands have long been a bastion of reactionary Tory-ism without the leavening influence of exposure to international markets and cosmopolitan migrants.

    Imperial preference, for example, was Midlands-born. As was Enoch Powell.

    I believe, also, the East Midlands colliery workers were strike breakers.*

    *Dimly recalled from some book I read.
  • Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    More importantly, the poll tax started life with better polling than that: 43-39 in favour;
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
    Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
    Or recognise that pandemic spending is temporary and borrow and fix the deficit over the economic cycle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    Pulpstar said:

    South 21 million
    North 15 million
    Midlands 10.1 million
    London 9 million
    Scotland 5.5 million
    Wales 3.1 million


    Lab targets from Con (Marginals to 6% swing - Starmer comfortably in power)

    26 North
    13 Midlands
    13 South
    9 Wales
    4 London
    0 Scotland

    1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
    2 4 7 8 9 13 Midlands
    0 0 2 6 9 13 South
    1 3 3 4 4 4 London
    5 9 11 16 21 26 North
    0 0 0 0 0 0 Scotland
    0 3 5 8 8 9 Wales

    8 19 28 42 51 65

    Will have to see what changes if/when boundaries change but the North of England is the most important battleground, not the Midlands.

    The Starmer/Johnson gap is a complete irrelevance in Scotland, and almost so in London.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,476

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog.

    £350m a week...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559

    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    More importantly, the poll tax started life with better polling than that: 43-39 in favour;
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
    Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
    Or recognise that pandemic spending is temporary and borrow and fix the deficit over the economic cycle.
    No political party has dared yet articulate what is just basic economic good sense.
  • Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    I would expect a fair number but then NI has not been paid on pensioners pensions as far as I am aware and of course pension planning has taken that into account when advising on pensioner investments

    At least the NHS and social uplift of 1.25% will apply to all working pensioners from April 23 and for April 22 the pensioners will receive a inflation rise and not the very much larger 8% +

    I know you want NI to be extended to all pensioners income but there is no appetite across the political divide to even consider it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    What was Johnson's lead over Corbyn at GE2019 for each region ?
    We need to know that to make sense of the numbers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    edited September 21

    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I don’t quite agree with your Triple Whammy.
    It should be:

    Higher Taxes
    Rising Prices
    Reduced Services

    Actually Failing Services sounds better.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,476
    Sky News confirms the family of teenager Harry Dunn who was killed when his motorbike was hit by a car in 2019 and U.S. suspect Anne Sacoolas have reached a "resolution" in a civil claim for damages filed in Virginia

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801

    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    More importantly, the poll tax started life with better polling than that: 43-39 in favour;
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
    Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
    Or recognise that pandemic spending is temporary and borrow and fix the deficit over the economic cycle.
    I think that's true but in this country we also have to recognise that no government will ever cut NHS funding. We can already see from the government plans that they intend to make the pandemic related NHS spending increase permanent. That is an additional £12bn per year that is uncovered spending.

    I'm all for cutting the size of the state and that includes the NHS but the UK is a health service with a nation attached to pay for it. No party out there is going to go into the election with NHS cuts in the manifesto.
  • Biden about to address UN
  • Scott_xP said:

    Sky News confirms the family of teenager Harry Dunn who was killed when his motorbike was hit by a car in 2019 and U.S. suspect Anne Sacoolas have reached a "resolution" in a civil claim for damages filed in Virginia

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

    Not the criminal one though
  • Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    More importantly, the poll tax started life with better polling than that: 43-39 in favour;
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
    Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
    Or recognise that pandemic spending is temporary and borrow and fix the deficit over the economic cycle.
    Fair enough- though Rishi seems to have put his foot down there- see also education catchup (or lack thereof). How much that is Rishi's relative inexperience and lack of stature against Treasury orthodoxy, and how much it is that he wants low government spending as a matter of preference, I don't know.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,351
    Mr. Max, meanwhile, everything else gets squeezed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559

    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    More importantly, the poll tax started life with better polling than that: 43-39 in favour;
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
    Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
    Or recognise that pandemic spending is temporary and borrow and fix the deficit over the economic cycle.
    Fair enough- though Rishi seems to have put his foot down there- see also education catchup (or lack thereof). How much that is Rishi's relative inexperience and lack of stature against Treasury orthodoxy, and how much it is that he wants low government spending as a matter of preference, I don't know.
    Both. Which is why he’s not as good as people think (or thought).

    Although I rate him as the best communicator in the Cabinet, alongside Zahawi.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801

    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I doubt it with 41% approval v 48% disappoval
    How many of the 41% approving don't work for a living and don't pay NI as a result?
    More importantly, the poll tax started life with better polling than that: 43-39 in favour;
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
    Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.

    The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
    Or recognise that pandemic spending is temporary and borrow and fix the deficit over the economic cycle.
    Fair enough- though Rishi seems to have put his foot down there- see also education catchup (or lack thereof). How much that is Rishi's relative inexperience and lack of stature against Treasury orthodoxy, and how much it is that he wants low government spending as a matter of preference, I don't know.
    He's put his foot down for good reason. I wish he would have done so for the NHS as well and told them to do with what they have. It won't be long until the NHS accounts for more than 50% of departmental spending, no one seems to want to address that situation.
  • Biden about to address UN

    Funny yesterday very silly people were saying Boris was being snubbed by the Americans at the UN.

    Even with John Kerry saying that Biden approved of Boris's message and to wait and hear what Biden had to say too. 🤦‍♂️
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
  • Biden live on Sky now
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    edited September 21

    The Midlands have long been a bastion of reactionary Tory-ism without the leavening influence of exposure to international markets and cosmopolitan migrants.

    Imperial preference, for example, was Midlands-born. As was Enoch Powell.

    I believe, also, the East Midlands colliery workers were strike breakers.*

    *Dimly recalled from some book I read.

    Last GE - Tory leads

    South
    E England 32.7% (Con lead)
    SE England 32.1% (Con lead)
    SW England 29.6% (Con lead)

    Midlands
    E Midlands 23.1% (Con lead)
    W Midlands 19.6% (Con lead)

    Scotland 6.5% (Con lead)*

    North
    Yorkshire & Humber 4.8% (Con lead)
    NE England -4.3% (Lab lead)
    NW England -8.8% (Lab lead)

    Wales -4.8% (Lab Lead)

    London -16.1% (Lab Lead)

    * Obviously both miles behind the Nats.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,091

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    Some CO2 is extracted from the atmosphere as a byproduct of liquid oxygen/nitrogen production.

    One of the suggestion about power storage is compressing air. This leads to enormous heat loses on re-expansion, though. One suggested side is using that to generate liquid gases and sell them.... Which would leave you with vast amounts of atmospheric CO2 as a a side product.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801
    Martin Whitmarsh joins Aston Martin F1. Saw the first part of headline and was worried that it was McLaren. They guy is a natural born loser. He oversaw the worst decline in McLaren's performance with his constant micromanaging and splitting up of duties and, from what I've heard, management by buzzwords. It wasn't until Ron Dennis removed him and reversed all of those structural changes things started to change and even then it needed to go further with Zac Brown bringing back the traditional roles within Motorsports back to McLaren.

    Anyone who has money on Aston Martin for next season should close their positions. Whitmarsh has loser written all over him. Bit like Sam Michael.
  • pingping Posts: 1,412
    edited September 21
    rkrkrk said:

    What's going on in the Midlands? Why do they love Boris Johnson so much?

    ???

    I’d love to know the answer to this.

    Anyone?

    Seems bonkers for the wm to stick out like a sore thumb. We’re not that different to the rest of the country, are we?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,207
    edited September 21
    Pulpstar said:

    What was Johnson's lead over Corbyn at GE2019 for each region ?
    We need to know that to make sense of the numbers.

    I asked that question too, so I've looked it up.

    Region # Johnson net # Corbyn net # Johnson lead over Corbyn # Starmer change
    North # -15 # -24 # +9 # +24
    Midlands # -9 # -24 # +15 # -4
    London # -28 # -5 # -23 # 0
    South # -6 # -42 # +36 # +33
    Wales # 0 # -27 # +27 # +56
    Scotland # -42 # -39 # -3 # 0

    Those changes look okay for Starmer. He's avoided simply piling up more of a lead in London. Large gains in the North and Wales could win back seats lost in 2019. The large gains in the South might not win many Labour seats, but could see Tory losses to the Lib Dems.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,473
    Leon said:

    For God's sake, why aren't we talking about trans rights?

    This site is unbelievable

    Or dolphins
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,351
    Mr. Max, so... do you like Whitmarsh or not?

    Got to say, I was never taken with the splitting of the team principal role (Mercedes had that with Wolff and Man Whose Name I Forget who went to Williams then almost immediately left when he proved better at inheriting Brawn's work than doing his own).
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,279
    edited September 21
    Biden affirms US will meet the 100 billion target sought by Boris at COP26
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,024

    Not clear how much longer Boris will protect any lead while the High-Tax Tories continue to hammer working people.

    FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.

    I don’t quite agree with your Triple Whammy.
    It should be:

    Higher Taxes
    Rising Prices
    Reduced Services

    Actually Failing Services sounds better.
    That's smart – my goal was to stick purely to costs, but I like your alternative triptych too!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,691

    Mr. Max, so... do you like Whitmarsh or not?

    Got to say, I was never taken with the splitting of the team principal role (Mercedes had that with Wolff and Man Whose Name I Forget who went to Williams then almost immediately left when he proved better at inheriting Brawn's work than doing his own).

    Paddy Lowe?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_Lowe

    Took me five minutes to remember his name.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    edited September 21
    Pulpstar said:

    South 21 million
    North 15 million
    Midlands 10.1 million
    London 9 million
    Scotland 5.5 million
    Wales 3.1 million


    Lab targets from Con (Marginals to 6% swing - Starmer comfortably in power)

    26 North
    13 Midlands
    13 South
    9 Wales
    4 London
    0 Scotland

    1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
    2 4 7 8 9 13 Midlands
    0 0 2 6 9 13 South
    1 3 3 4 4 4 London
    5 9 11 16 21 26 North
    0 0 0 0 0 0 Scotland
    0 3 5 8 8 9 Wales

    8 19 28 42 51 65

    Will have to see what changes if/when boundaries change but the North of England is the most important battleground, not the Midlands.

    The North West and Yorkshire&Humberside are usually regarded as separate regions.

    A lot of former Midlands marginals have swung so far to the Tories that they're no longer on the Labour target list: places like Stoke South and Cannock Chase for example.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,351
    Mr. 86, sounds like the chap.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,952

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere...
    Talk to the trees.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,351
    To be fair to Canada, there was a General Election here in which the Scottish seats were simply unchanged. I think that was right before Labour fell off a cliff.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    For God's sake, why aren't we talking about trans rights?

    This site is unbelievable

    We could always talk about the exciting Canadian election result instead.
    It looks like the suburbs/exburbs of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver is where the Canadian Tories need to pick up seats as well as half-a-dozen or so in the Maritimes.

    They should adopt a 40:40 strategy for next time. 160 seats would be enough for them to govern.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File:Canadian_Federal_Election_Cartogram_2021.svg
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,482
    @isam
    Isam re discussion on electricity/gas bills yesterday. It is correct that energy companies can only go back one year , as long as it is their fault bill is not sent, ie you gave them new address and they failed to bill.
    Not if it is your fault or if as is happening now with companies going bust, administrator's can chase you for 6 years. People who thought they were clear are getting pursued by administrator's and have to pay up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    I think nuclear fusion and the feasibility of mass CCUS (from the atmosphere) are closely linked.

    Crack one and we crack the other, which is why we should be talking about nuclear fusion at least 1,000 times more often than Trans Rights.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,952
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
    Not much use for CO2 capture in this location, I think, but a useful demonstration of the technology at scale.

    Highview Enlasa Developing 50MW/500MWh Liquid Air Energy Storage Facility in the Atacama Region of Chile
    https://highviewpower.com/news_announcement/highview-enlasa-developing-50mw-500mwh-liquid-air-energy-storage-facility-in-the-atacama-region-of-chile/
  • Confirmation of Biden's 100 billion commitment

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1440319812287139840?s=19
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    edited September 21

    Pulpstar said:

    What was Johnson's lead over Corbyn at GE2019 for each region ?
    We need to know that to make sense of the numbers.

    I asked that question too, so I've looked it up.

    Region # Johnson net # Corbyn net # Johnson lead over Corbyn # Starmer change
    North # -15 # -24 # +9 # +24
    Midlands # -9 # -24 # +15 # -4
    London # -28 # -5 # -23 # 0
    South # -6 # -42 # +36 # +33
    Wales # 0 # -27 # +27 # +56
    Scotland # -42 # -39 # -3 # 0

    Those changes look okay for Starmer. He's avoided simply piling up more of a lead in London. Large gains in the North and Wales could win back seats lost in 2019. The large gains in the South might not win many Labour seats, but could see Tory losses to the Lib Dems.
    One seat that looks an absolute stone cold cert to head back to Labour is Delyn. No wonder the Tories are avoiding a BE there.

    Also the Conservatives really could do with the boundary changes dropping some of Wales' seats.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,776

    The Midlands have long been a bastion of reactionary Tory-ism without the leavening influence of exposure to international markets and cosmopolitan migrants.

    Imperial preference, for example, was Midlands-born. As was Enoch Powell.

    I believe, also, the East Midlands colliery workers were strike breakers.*

    *Dimly recalled from some book I read.

    They may not have been if the bastards leading the NUM had allowed a democratic process..
  • eekeek Posts: 15,793
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
    Not much use for CO2 capture in this location, I think, but a useful demonstration of the technology at scale.

    Highview Enlasa Developing 50MW/500MWh Liquid Air Energy Storage Facility in the Atacama Region of Chile
    https://highviewpower.com/news_announcement/highview-enlasa-developing-50mw-500mwh-liquid-air-energy-storage-facility-in-the-atacama-region-of-chile/
    Also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/worlds-biggest-liquid-air-battery-starts-construction-in-uk

    Which seems to be working on a scheme that can then be implemented where-ever required.
  • malcolmg said:

    @isam
    Isam re discussion on electricity/gas bills yesterday. It is correct that energy companies can only go back one year , as long as it is their fault bill is not sent, ie you gave them new address and they failed to bill.
    Not if it is your fault or if as is happening now with companies going bust, administrator's can chase you for 6 years. People who thought they were clear are getting pursued by administrator's and have to pay up.

    I understand Ofgem appoints the energy supplier to take over the contract and if the previous supplier fails then the consumer is protected from them
  • Confirmation of Biden's 100 billion commitment

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1440319812287139840?s=19

    I find it rather rude that journalists don't say President Biden, PM such and such ...I know its only a tweet, but still.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    I think nuclear fusion and the feasibility of mass CCUS (from the atmosphere) are closely linked.

    Crack one and we crack the other, which is why we should be talking about nuclear fusion at least 1,000 times more often than Trans Rights.
    Yes but cracking nuclear fusion will occur the day after JK Rowling gets appointed CEO of the Tavistock.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,481
    The Optical Illusion Of Net Ratings

    "We asked a hundred people - "Who do you trust to buy a round for their friends in the pub, Boris Johnson or Sir Keir Starmer?" 42 said Boris, 24 Sir Keir, & the rest didn't know. They were asked who they thought would best organise a fun night out;. 42 said Boris, & 20 Sir Keir. In June 2020, another survey asked if the respondents thought either of the two "had personality" - Boris won by 34 points, 64 to 30. When asked again in September Boris increased his lead to 42, (67-25). The most recent Opinium poll asked whether the respondents found Boris or Sir Keir likeable - given that people would rather go for a night out with Boris, the choice they think has bags more personality of the two, it's not much of a surprise that he "got more likes" 43-38. So it would seem uncontroversial to say that Boris is the more likeable of the two men who want to be PM after the next GE. Unless...

    Unless, instead of basing the results on who people actually like, you decided to ask who they disliked as well, and subtracted one from the other. Using this method, Sir Keir suddenly becomes more likeable than the more liked Boris, braver than the man more people consider brave of the two, and a stronger leader than the leader he trails in terms of people's judgement of who is strong. (Opinium March 2020)"

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-optical-illusion-of-net-ratings.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
    Not much use for CO2 capture in this location, I think, but a useful demonstration of the technology at scale.

    Highview Enlasa Developing 50MW/500MWh Liquid Air Energy Storage Facility in the Atacama Region of Chile
    https://highviewpower.com/news_announcement/highview-enlasa-developing-50mw-500mwh-liquid-air-energy-storage-facility-in-the-atacama-region-of-chile/
    Couple something like that with liquid CO2 extraction and you've got CO2 capture as a by product of energy storage. We don't just have to halt global warming, we need to start thinking about reversing it. Storing compressed CO2 underground in disused mines and oil wells does seem like a viable solution, if we're able to remove it from the atmosphere. It's putting the byproduct of fossil fuels back where they came from.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    edited September 21

    The Midlands have long been a bastion of reactionary Tory-ism without the leavening influence of exposure to international markets and cosmopolitan migrants.

    Imperial preference, for example, was Midlands-born. As was Enoch Powell.

    I believe, also, the East Midlands colliery workers were strike breakers.*

    *Dimly recalled from some book I read.

    The Midlands has more migrants than anywhere apart from London.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,476
    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,952
    edited September 21
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
    Not much use for CO2 capture in this location, I think, but a useful demonstration of the technology at scale.

    Highview Enlasa Developing 50MW/500MWh Liquid Air Energy Storage Facility in the Atacama Region of Chile
    https://highviewpower.com/news_announcement/highview-enlasa-developing-50mw-500mwh-liquid-air-energy-storage-facility-in-the-atacama-region-of-chile/
    Also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/worlds-biggest-liquid-air-battery-starts-construction-in-uk

    Which seems to be working on a scheme that can then be implemented wherever required.
    Yes, that's the same company. The developers seem to be planning for potential CO2 capture at that site - but from the CCGT power plant being built alongside it, not the cryo plant itself.
    https://renews.biz/61062/highview-power-enters-liquid-air-battery-joint-venture/

    Spain is also talking about building 2GW of capacity.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,776
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
    How direct is the technology?

    The one thing that puts through huge volumes of air are air source heat pumps...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    edited September 21
    rkrkrk said:

    What's going on in the Midlands? Why do they love Boris Johnson so much?

    Perhaps it's more that they don't like Keir Starmer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,952

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    I think nuclear fusion and the feasibility of mass CCUS (from the atmosphere) are closely linked.

    Crack one and we crack the other, which is why we should be talking about nuclear fusion at least 1,000 times more often than Trans Rights.
    Yes but cracking nuclear fusion will occur the day after JK Rowling gets appointed CEO of the Tavistock.
    No, it's a genuine practical prospect now.
    Whether the commercial numbers stack up will be interesting, but for the first time there's significant private investment into fusion companies.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
    Not much use for CO2 capture in this location, I think, but a useful demonstration of the technology at scale.

    Highview Enlasa Developing 50MW/500MWh Liquid Air Energy Storage Facility in the Atacama Region of Chile
    https://highviewpower.com/news_announcement/highview-enlasa-developing-50mw-500mwh-liquid-air-energy-storage-facility-in-the-atacama-region-of-chile/
    Couple something like that with liquid CO2 extraction and you've got CO2 capture as a by product of energy storage. We don't just have to halt global warming, we need to start thinking about reversing it. Storing compressed CO2 underground in disused mines and oil wells does seem like a viable solution, if we're able to remove it from the atmosphere. It's putting the byproduct of fossil fuels back where they came from.
    Totally agree. Engineering got us into this and engineering will get us out of it.

    F**k the eco-socialists.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Boris has given up on the US FTA.

    We’ve got Australia instead, worth about a thruppeny bit in new money.
  • pingping Posts: 1,412
    edited September 21
    Andy_JS said:

    rkrkrk said:

    What's going on in the Midlands? Why do they love Boris Johnson so much?

    Perhaps it's more that they don't like Keir Starmer.
    I don’t see why he should be especially unpopular in the WM.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,751
    If Aukus, China and Russia Don’t Take Europe Seriously, Guess Who’s to Blame

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-21/-westlessness-is-the-word-if-the-old-established-alliances-fall-apart
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    Hence the research into making it cost effective.

    The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
    How direct is the technology?

    The one thing that puts through huge volumes of air are air source heat pumps...
    I don't think extraction in gaseous form is viable. The big energy cost is in liquification at which point the resulting atmospheric liquid can essentially be distilled or tapped for the CO2 given boiling point and density differentials of the different compounds in air.

    The reason why this is becoming a big area of research and commercial interest is that the western world is trying to shift to renewable energy, most of it is intermittent (as we've seen this week) and that means energy storage is a necessity. Installing compressed air energy storage with renewable is a process that would allow us to reverse global warming.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,691
    Not sure if this has been posted before but a bad approval poll for Biden in Iowa:

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

    Those who think he is doing a good job now stands at 31% in Iowa. Trump's worst rating was 37% and Obama's 36%. Only Bush Jr was lower at 25%.

    The usual caveats about reading too much into one poll in one state apply but hard to see much in the way of positives for Biden in this.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,793

    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Good. I said long before the Brexit vote we didn't want a trade deal with the US. Why would we when we already have a big trade surplus with them and any deal is bound to include arbitration terms that are weighted heavily in their favour?
    Some trade deals sound good but only work for those who don't understand the compromises a trade deal actually require.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,482

    malcolmg said:

    @isam
    Isam re discussion on electricity/gas bills yesterday. It is correct that energy companies can only go back one year , as long as it is their fault bill is not sent, ie you gave them new address and they failed to bill.
    Not if it is your fault or if as is happening now with companies going bust, administrator's can chase you for 6 years. People who thought they were clear are getting pursued by administrator's and have to pay up.

    I understand Ofgem appoints the energy supplier to take over the contract and if the previous supplier fails then the consumer is protected from them
    Administrator will still try to collect any outstanding debts. I know they transfer any credits over but not sure if the new company will accept debts , be surprised.
    ISAM's case was he had moved house and not had a final bill yet.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Good. I said long before the Brexit vote we didn't want a trade deal with the US. Why would we when we already have a big trade surplus with them and any deal is bound to include arbitration terms that are weighted heavily in their favour?
    Some trade deals sound good but only work for those who don't understand the compromises a trade deal actually require.
    Are you, like Tyndall, from the Midlands by any chance?

    Mercantilism seems endemic there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,751
    Next week's EU-US TTC is due to be delayed from next week to October after French demands for a postponement. A face-saving solution for 🇫🇷 and 🇪🇺 that is unlikely to derail talks with US too much at this stage.</>

    https://twitter.com/mehreenkhn/status/1440324636235890691
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,776

    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Boris has given up on the US FTA.

    We’ve got Australia instead, worth about a thruppeny bit in new money.
    How's TTIP coming along?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,952
    MrEd said:

    Not sure if this has been posted before but a bad approval poll for Biden in Iowa:

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

    Those who think he is doing a good job now stands at 31% in Iowa. Trump's worst rating was 37% and Obama's 36%. Only Bush Jr was lower at 25%.

    The usual caveats about reading too much into one poll in one state apply but hard to see much in the way of positives for Biden in this.

    If polling is to be believed, Abbott will get chucked out from the Texas governorship in favour of Matthew McConaughey...
    https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/573113-the-memo-could-orourke-beat-abbott-to-become-governor-of-texas
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited September 21
    Nobody wants to watch this...Boris blusters, but Death Rigby just shouts at him before he even answers....I don't know about free trade deals, but this is a terrible import from the US. And it never actually informs the viewer of anything.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TLWO71r6UU&amp;

    I think the journalists think they are nailing Boris, but actually it doesn't do anything of the sort.

    Compare and contrast to something like UnHerd....where Freddie Sayers never shouts at anybody, never interrupts, but is far more effective at holding them to account.

    The best take down I ever heard was Iain Dale of Nick Griffin. Rather than just shout racist at him, of which he was normally very skilled at talking around, he let him totally dig his own grave, asked him about actual policies, then just said interesting, how do x work with y, erhh, well, errhh...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Boris has given up on the US FTA.

    We’ve got Australia instead, worth about a thruppeny bit in new money.
    How's TTIP coming along?
    Dunno.

    As I posted yesterday, there’s a risk that China’s application will queer our pitch.

    Still, in sheer volume of trade terms:

    EU > USA > TTIP
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    edited September 21
    Remember “Yellowhammer”? Supposed worst case for No Deal planning.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    isam said:

    The Optical Illusion Of Net Ratings

    "We asked a hundred people - "Who do you trust to buy a round for their friends in the pub, Boris Johnson or Sir Keir Starmer?" 42 said Boris, 24 Sir Keir, & the rest didn't know. They were asked who they thought would best organise a fun night out;. 42 said Boris, & 20 Sir Keir. In June 2020, another survey asked if the respondents thought either of the two "had personality" - Boris won by 34 points, 64 to 30. When asked again in September Boris increased his lead to 42, (67-25). The most recent Opinium poll asked whether the respondents found Boris or Sir Keir likeable - given that people would rather go for a night out with Boris, the choice they think has bags more personality of the two, it's not much of a surprise that he "got more likes" 43-38. So it would seem uncontroversial to say that Boris is the more likeable of the two men who want to be PM after the next GE. Unless...

    Unless, instead of basing the results on who people actually like, you decided to ask who they disliked as well, and subtracted one from the other. Using this method, Sir Keir suddenly becomes more likeable than the more liked Boris, braver than the man more people consider brave of the two, and a stronger leader than the leader he trails in terms of people's judgement of who is strong. (Opinium March 2020)"

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-optical-illusion-of-net-ratings.html

    @isam There has been some movement in Net approval from Corbyn to Starmer, but it's modest () is the traditional measure

    NET: Approve (Johnson) 35% (-13%)
    NET: Approve (Starmer) 30% (-6%)

    10th December poll

    NET Approve Johnson 33% (-11%)
    NET Approve Corbyn 24% (-30%)

    Johnson +ve Approve gap over Corbyn 9%
    Johnson traditional gap over Corbyn 19%

    Johnson +ve Approve gap over Starmer 5%
    Starmer traditional gap over Johnson 7%
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,776

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Boris has given up on the US FTA.

    We’ve got Australia instead, worth about a thruppeny bit in new money.
    How's TTIP coming along?
    Dunno.

    As I posted yesterday, there’s a risk that China’s application will queer our pitch.

    Still, in sheer volume of trade terms:

    EU > USA > TTIP
    :wink:
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but it's unfortunate we cant just extract the CO2 from the atmosphere as we have put so much extra into it and heated the planet as a result.
    There is a Japanese team working on doing this in a low cost manner, atmospheric CO2 trapping will become a key factor in reversing climate change 20-30 years from now.
    Trouble is that there's a hefty energy cost in trapping CO2 from the air- a lot of it because it's just so diffuse in the atmosphere. And that's one of those fundamental numbers that can't be squeezed by willpower or cleverness. David MacKay estimates that the power needed to remove CO2 from the air will be about the same as current electricity generation. It's possible (and it might be a mechanism to deal with intermittency) but it's a huge project.

    http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
    I think nuclear fusion and the feasibility of mass CCUS (from the atmosphere) are closely linked.

    Crack one and we crack the other, which is why we should be talking about nuclear fusion at least 1,000 times more often than Trans Rights.
    There are lots of people talking about nuclear fusion; unfortunately it's mostly bollocks.

    Also, talking about nuclear fusion doesn't preclude talking about cultural issues. It's not like there are only so many words to go around. Or does every post of yours, even on engineering subjects, need to be dosed with a little bit of hate?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    MattW said:
    So what are you saying?
    That there are no shortages, or that picture editors are lazy?

    Cos if it’s the second, tell us something we don’t know.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    MrEd said:

    Not sure if this has been posted before but a bad approval poll for Biden in Iowa:

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

    Those who think he is doing a good job now stands at 31% in Iowa. Trump's worst rating was 37% and Obama's 36%. Only Bush Jr was lower at 25%.

    The usual caveats about reading too much into one poll in one state apply but hard to see much in the way of positives for Biden in this.

    All the (Mainly Democrat) Election twitter I follow indicates Iowa is going to continue to head toward the GOP for the forseeable future. It's not remotely a battleground state any more.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Good. I said long before the Brexit vote we didn't want a trade deal with the US. Why would we when we already have a big trade surplus with them and any deal is bound to include arbitration terms that are weighted heavily in their favour?
    Some trade deals sound good but only work for those who don't understand the compromises a trade deal actually require.
    Are you, like Tyndall, from the Midlands by any chance?

    Mercantilism seems endemic there.
    Your mistake is in not understanding that an FTA is mercantilist - just heavily in favour of the US. It is simply a means of the US maintaining protectionism in another form.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,952
    edited September 21
    isam said:

    The Optical Illusion Of Net Ratings

    "We asked a hundred people - "Who do you trust to buy a round for their friends in the pub, Boris Johnson or Sir Keir Starmer?" 42 said Boris, 24 Sir Keir, & the rest didn't know...

    I'm not sure anyone who believes Boris would reliably stand his round in the pub deserves a vote.


    First out of the taxi, last to the bar is more his style.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited September 21
    31,564 cases, 203 deaths.

    5k up in England again week on week (~15-20%). Starting to look like a little bit of a hint of a pattern, 3 days on the bounce now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One clear reality emerging from this US trip - the UK isn’t getting a trade deal any time soon.

    Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)

    PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224

    Good. I said long before the Brexit vote we didn't want a trade deal with the US. Why would we when we already have a big trade surplus with them and any deal is bound to include arbitration terms that are weighted heavily in their favour?
    Some trade deals sound good but only work for those who don't understand the compromises a trade deal actually require.
    Are you, like Tyndall, from the Midlands by any chance?

    Mercantilism seems endemic there.
    Your mistake is in not understanding that an FTA is mercantilist - just heavily in favour of the US. It is simply a means of the US maintaining protectionism in another form.
    Depends on the FTA, dunnit?
This discussion has been closed.