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Keir has a net approval lead over Boris – but where it matters least – politicalbetting.com
Keir has a net approval lead over Boris – but where it matters least – politicalbetting.com
The above chart has been created from the approval rating data in the weekend Opinium poll for the Observer when Johnson was up a bit from his worst ever approval rating as PM earlier in the month. He’s trailing Starmer in most regions but that is deceptive in electoral terms. For Starmer has a significant edge in the regions where there are fewer marginals but it is much closer in England outside London. Indeed Johnson has a lead in the Midlands.
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FWIW, I am on record saying that the NI rise will be abandoned either before, or soon after, it comes into force.
It would be interesting to see the same analysis done with the gross approval ratings. After all as you and other experts who track this have said before it's the gross approval ratings that matter most.
Has Starmer cut through more or less where there are marginals? Or is there no difference?
One of Johnson's strengths is a focus on what is important to the voters and saying whatever is necessary to satisfy that.
He will know that the NHS needs to be noticeably on the road to recovery by the time of the next general election - and he'll want the financial headroom to announce a pre-election tax cut. Income tax is the tax of choice for cuts, though, not NI.
http://news.sky.com/story/boost-for-shoppers-as-major-carbon-dioxide-supplier-restarts-production-after-government-talks-12413566
We should be doing the opposite.
North 15 million
Midlands 10.1 million
London 9 million
Scotland 5.5 million
Wales 3.1 million
Lab targets from Con (Marginals to 6% swing - Starmer comfortably in power)
26 North
13 Midlands
13 South
9 Wales
4 London
0 Scotland
1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
2 4 7 8 9 13 Midlands
0 0 2 6 9 13 South
1 3 3 4 4 4 London
5 9 11 16 21 26 North
0 0 0 0 0 0 Scotland
0 3 5 8 8 9 Wales
8 19 28 42 51 65
Will have to see what changes if/when boundaries change but the North of England is the most important battleground, not the Midlands.
Or is that a yet?
Assuming there's a swing in Starmer's favour compared to Corbyn, is this even across the regions, or is it concentrated in London and the South?
A disproportionate swing in the North could be quite handy for winning back seats recently lost. There's been other recent evidence that the Midlands is core vote territory for Johnsonism, so I don't think the lead there is particularly significant or surprising.
And Starmer isn't?
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge
Now, some of that may be the halo of a General Election victory, but to start a policy with net unfavourable is... brave, Prime Minister.
The government's problem is that, even if the economy bounces back well, there's no spare money to pay for nice things like dealing with the NHS backlog. If you don't want this increase in NI, you either have to find something else to tax (almost anything would be better, TBH) or some more spending to cut.
Imperial preference, for example, was Midlands-born. As was Enoch Powell.
I believe, also, the East Midlands colliery workers were strike breakers.*
*Dimly recalled from some book I read.
At least the NHS and social uplift of 1.25% will apply to all working pensioners from April 23 and for April 22 the pensioners will receive a inflation rise and not the very much larger 8% +
I know you want NI to be extended to all pensioners income but there is no appetite across the political divide to even consider it
We need to know that to make sense of the numbers.
This site is unbelievable
It should be:
Higher Taxes
Rising Prices
Reduced Services
Actually Failing Services sounds better.
For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
I'm all for cutting the size of the state and that includes the NHS but the UK is a health service with a nation attached to pay for it. No party out there is going to go into the election with NHS cuts in the manifesto.
Although I rate him as the best communicator in the Cabinet, alongside Zahawi.
Even with John Kerry saying that Biden approved of Boris's message and to wait and hear what Biden had to say too. 🤦♂️
South
E England 32.7% (Con lead)
SE England 32.1% (Con lead)
SW England 29.6% (Con lead)
Midlands
E Midlands 23.1% (Con lead)
W Midlands 19.6% (Con lead)
Scotland 6.5% (Con lead)*
North
Yorkshire & Humber 4.8% (Con lead)
NE England -4.3% (Lab lead)
NW England -8.8% (Lab lead)
Wales -4.8% (Lab Lead)
London -16.1% (Lab Lead)
* Obviously both miles behind the Nats.
One of the suggestion about power storage is compressing air. This leads to enormous heat loses on re-expansion, though. One suggested side is using that to generate liquid gases and sell them.... Which would leave you with vast amounts of atmospheric CO2 as a a side product.
Anyone who has money on Aston Martin for next season should close their positions. Whitmarsh has loser written all over him. Bit like Sam Michael.
I’d love to know the answer to this.
Anyone?
Seems bonkers for the wm to stick out like a sore thumb. We’re not that different to the rest of the country, are we?
Region # Johnson net # Corbyn net # Johnson lead over Corbyn # Starmer change
North # -15 # -24 # +9 # +24
Midlands # -9 # -24 # +15 # -4
London # -28 # -5 # -23 # 0
South # -6 # -42 # +36 # +33
Wales # 0 # -27 # +27 # +56
Scotland # -42 # -39 # -3 # 0
Those changes look okay for Starmer. He's avoided simply piling up more of a lead in London. Large gains in the North and Wales could win back seats lost in 2019. The large gains in the South might not win many Labour seats, but could see Tory losses to the Lib Dems.
Got to say, I was never taken with the splitting of the team principal role (Mercedes had that with Wolff and Man Whose Name I Forget who went to Williams then almost immediately left when he proved better at inheriting Brawn's work than doing his own).
http://www.withouthotair.com/c31/page_240.shtml (especially the footnote for page 245)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_Lowe
Took me five minutes to remember his name.
A lot of former Midlands marginals have swung so far to the Tories that they're no longer on the Labour target list: places like Stoke South and Cannock Chase for example.
The compressed air battery is an interesting concept because removing liquid CO2 would conceivably be a piece of piss given the different boiling points of atmospheric compounds. A technology like that could remove a pretty large amount of CO2 as a byproduct of energy storage from renewables.
They should adopt a 40:40 strategy for next time. 160 seats would be enough for them to govern.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File:Canadian_Federal_Election_Cartogram_2021.svg
Isam re discussion on electricity/gas bills yesterday. It is correct that energy companies can only go back one year , as long as it is their fault bill is not sent, ie you gave them new address and they failed to bill.
Not if it is your fault or if as is happening now with companies going bust, administrator's can chase you for 6 years. People who thought they were clear are getting pursued by administrator's and have to pay up.
Crack one and we crack the other, which is why we should be talking about nuclear fusion at least 1,000 times more often than Trans Rights.
Highview Enlasa Developing 50MW/500MWh Liquid Air Energy Storage Facility in the Atacama Region of Chile
https://highviewpower.com/news_announcement/highview-enlasa-developing-50mw-500mwh-liquid-air-energy-storage-facility-in-the-atacama-region-of-chile/
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1440319812287139840?s=19
Also the Conservatives really could do with the boundary changes dropping some of Wales' seats.
Which seems to be working on a scheme that can then be implemented where-ever required.
https://unherd.com/2021/09/memo-to-gove-serfs-dont-vote-tory/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=c95408da8d&mc_eid=836634e34b
"We asked a hundred people - "Who do you trust to buy a round for their friends in the pub, Boris Johnson or Sir Keir Starmer?" 42 said Boris, 24 Sir Keir, & the rest didn't know. They were asked who they thought would best organise a fun night out;. 42 said Boris, & 20 Sir Keir. In June 2020, another survey asked if the respondents thought either of the two "had personality" - Boris won by 34 points, 64 to 30. When asked again in September Boris increased his lead to 42, (67-25). The most recent Opinium poll asked whether the respondents found Boris or Sir Keir likeable - given that people would rather go for a night out with Boris, the choice they think has bags more personality of the two, it's not much of a surprise that he "got more likes" 43-38. So it would seem uncontroversial to say that Boris is the more likeable of the two men who want to be PM after the next GE. Unless...
Unless, instead of basing the results on who people actually like, you decided to ask who they disliked as well, and subtracted one from the other. Using this method, Sir Keir suddenly becomes more likeable than the more liked Boris, braver than the man more people consider brave of the two, and a stronger leader than the leader he trails in terms of people's judgement of who is strong. (Opinium March 2020)"
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-optical-illusion-of-net-ratings.html
Talks aren’t happening. UK privately accepts no deal pre-2022 midterms (when Dems could lose Senate)
PM today didn’t even say we’d have one by 2024 election…8yrs after Brexit vote.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1440324084290654224
https://renews.biz/61062/highview-power-enters-liquid-air-battery-joint-venture/
Spain is also talking about building 2GW of capacity.
The one thing that puts through huge volumes of air are air source heat pumps...
Whether the commercial numbers stack up will be interesting, but for the first time there's significant private investment into fusion companies.
F**k the eco-socialists.
We’ve got Australia instead, worth about a thruppeny bit in new money.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-21/-westlessness-is-the-word-if-the-old-established-alliances-fall-apart
The reason why this is becoming a big area of research and commercial interest is that the western world is trying to shift to renewable energy, most of it is intermittent (as we've seen this week) and that means energy storage is a necessity. Installing compressed air energy storage with renewable is a process that would allow us to reverse global warming.
https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/
Those who think he is doing a good job now stands at 31% in Iowa. Trump's worst rating was 37% and Obama's 36%. Only Bush Jr was lower at 25%.
The usual caveats about reading too much into one poll in one state apply but hard to see much in the way of positives for Biden in this.
ISAM's case was he had moved house and not had a final bill yet.
Mercantilism seems endemic there.
https://twitter.com/mehreenkhn/status/1440324636235890691
https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/573113-the-memo-could-orourke-beat-abbott-to-become-governor-of-texas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TLWO71r6UU&
I think the journalists think they are nailing Boris, but actually it doesn't do anything of the sort.
Compare and contrast to something like UnHerd....where Freddie Sayers never shouts at anybody, never interrupts, but is far more effective at holding them to account.
The best take down I ever heard was Iain Dale of Nick Griffin. Rather than just shout racist at him, of which he was normally very skilled at talking around, he let him totally dig his own grave, asked him about actual policies, then just said interesting, how do x work with y, erhh, well, errhh...
As I posted yesterday, there’s a risk that China’s application will queer our pitch.
Still, in sheer volume of trade terms:
EU > USA > TTIP
NET: Approve (Johnson) 35% (-13%)
NET: Approve (Starmer) 30% (-6%)
10th December poll
NET Approve Johnson 33% (-11%)
NET Approve Corbyn 24% (-30%)
Johnson +ve Approve gap over Corbyn 9%
Johnson traditional gap over Corbyn 19%
Johnson +ve Approve gap over Starmer 5%
Starmer traditional gap over Johnson 7%
https://news.sky.com/story/boost-for-shoppers-as-major-carbon-dioxide-supplier-restarts-production-after-government-talks-12413566
https://www.today.ng/news/world/pingdemic-puts-britains-food-supply-strain-379477
Also, talking about nuclear fusion doesn't preclude talking about cultural issues. It's not like there are only so many words to go around. Or does every post of yours, even on engineering subjects, need to be dosed with a little bit of hate?
That there are no shortages, or that picture editors are lazy?
Cos if it’s the second, tell us something we don’t know.
First out of the taxi, last to the bar is more his style.
5k up in England again week on week (~15-20%). Starting to look like a little bit of a hint of a pattern, 3 days on the bounce now.