Is EdSec Gavin going to be a victim in the re-shuffle? – politicalbetting.com
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One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
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Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?2 -
That was me being faciiousGardenwalker said:
2.9% aggregate contribution to a 2.5% per annum rate.eek said:
Congratulations - I think you've just proved that all the report is saying is that the impact of Brexit matched the rate of inflation in 2017.Gardenwalker said:
According to the Bank of England’s online calculator thing, inflation averaged 2.5% per annum from 2015 to 2020.Philip_Thompson said:
Except for the simple fact that we know there has not been any CPI inflation in recent years.Gardenwalker said:
The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.eek said:
Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.Gardenwalker said:
You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.eek said:
It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.Gardenwalker said:
What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.Philip_Thompson said:
The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦♂️Gardenwalker said:
Take it up with the academics.Philip_Thompson said:
🤦♂️Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
And yet the Governor of the Bank of England has had to write "please explain" letters six times to explain why CPI was too low since the referendum: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets
Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.
Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦♂️
*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.
My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.
I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.
By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.
But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.
That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.
It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.
So no, alleged CPI is the Emperor with no clothes - this paper is trying to say "look at all that expensive silk" but we can already see that there is nothing there.
I’m not saying it’s been high, but it’s not zero.
I think anyone could have told you that.
So, think again.
If you want an answer go and do some work yourself - as I suspect the rest sits in their use of inappropriate oil prices to reflect the market.
In fact from https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp
Key Differences
There has been a trend, due to advancements in oil drilling and fracking, of West Texas Intermediate becoming cheaper than Brent Crude oil.
So the reality is that report uses an inappropriate base for oil prices and that may be itself reflect the rest of the difference.
If you want to discuss this further may I suggest you find a justification for why they are using west texas crude when our internal oil price will be based on brent oil prices. That is probably more than enough to explain the difference between the 2.9% rate recorded in the report and the 2.5% inflation rate you are quoting without any reference0 -
Naah. The godawful prominent photo of her in MC Hammer keks and pose. The phone held upside down to here ear. Must be a deep fake. Nobody would (a) take those pictures and think "yep, that's great" and (b) issue them for positive PR purposes...TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/11276081751491051520 -
Do you have a link to National Parks being annoyed? And to the Planning Appeals?eek said:
Well the locals in Richmondshire have been priced out for decades as is highlighted further down - beyond that I won't comment beyond the fact there have been appeals to prove that working from home meets the local occupancy regulations (much to the annoyance of the national parks).CarlottaVance said:The epicentre of Britain's pandemic house price boom is just up the road from Darlington. (and I suspect where many of the senior Treasury people who move there will choose to live).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58502618
Quite interesting. I don't see how they can fight that - the peeps are working locally, contributing to the community, and if are there X days per year...
The Beeboids are over-bigging up the differences. Those 10 viewings and 9 offers type figures are exactly what I am seeing here in North Notts.
It shows the lunacy of p*ssing away £12-15bn (my est, based on 12bn from Stamp Duty in 19-20) on a Stamp Duty holiday in one year - that's about 40% of the money they estimate they needed to build HS2 to Yorkshire and the NE. Add in the money spaffed on extra HS2 holes in the ground and other things for Southern Nimbies, and we are nearly there.
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Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-585413140 -
It really is unedifying and tedious to see so many try and co-opt Raducanu for the purposes of advancing their own politics.
She's just a lovely young woman who's just done fantastically well at tennis. Leave her alone.12 -
To answer that question - check my past comments and see what my wife does for a living which also explains why we live where we do (I won't live in a rural area as I like and used to need, public transport options).MattW said:
Do you have a link to National Parks being annoyed?eek said:
Well the locals in Richmondshire have been priced out for decades as is highlighted further down - beyond that I won't comment beyond the fact there have been appeals to prove that working from home meets the local occupancy regulations (much to the annoyance of the national parks).CarlottaVance said:The epicentre of Britain's pandemic house price boom is just up the road from Darlington. (and I suspect where many of the senior Treasury people who move there will choose to live).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58502618
And to the Planning Appeals?
Quite interesting.
The Beeboids are over-bigging up the differences. Those 10 viewings and 9 offers type figures are exactly what I am seeing here in North Notts.
It shows the lunacy of p*ssing away £12-15bn (my est, based on 12bn from Stamp Duty in 19-20) on a Stamp Duty holiday in one year - that's about 40% of the money they estimate they needed to build HS2 to Yorkshire and the NE. Add in the money spaffed on extra HS2 holes in the ground and other things for Southern Nimbies, and we are nearly there.0 -
The reference is Bowie, not MC Hammer.RochdalePioneers said:
Nasal. The godawful prominent photo of her in MC Hammer keks and pose. The phone held upside down to here ear. Must be a deep fake. Nobody would (a) take those pictures and think "yep, that's great" and (b) issue them for positive PR purposes...TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
But agree she is an absolute empty vessel.
(Though she was right about putting the NHS backlog costs on the deficit!).0 -
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.1 -
On Wednesday I'm going to my first football match since the first lockdown.FrancisUrquhart said:
I've saved a fortune during the Pandemic for basically those reasons, especially the eating out, gigs and travel.TheScreamingEagles said:
Using myself as an example of the typical working man.tlg86 said:
Train tickets and foreign holidays?CarlottaVance said:"Broadest shoulders"
Richer households saw a bigger reduction in spending than poorer households
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1437337483809894402?s=20
I suppose richer households have more discretionary spending (restaurants/entertainment) than poorer.....
Biggest drops in my spending since the first lockdown.
1) Foreign holidays
2) Train tickets
3) UK hotel stays
4) Events like gigs, theatre, and cinema
5) Work clothes
6) Fuel
7) Restaurants
Slightly offset with more technology purchases.
I'm so excited.0 -
MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Typical PB: wildly misjudging political traction among the general public. Most normal people really, really don’t care that much, and never think about politics.TOPPING said:
Nick precisely no one IRL is associating Emma Raducanu and politics.NickPalmer said:
Truss to FO looks a very strong bet, and I agree that sacking Patel would create a vulnerability.HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
O/T: I yield to nobody in my interest in politics combined with lack of interest in tennis, but am I the only one to be irritated by the way everyone from left to right is trying to make Raducanu their poster child? If she wants to be active in politics, fine, otherwise let her enjoy herself with whatever she wants. (My suggestion that she might fancy being a Bromley councillor was a joke...)
PBers see politics in absolutely everything. They are highly atypical.3 -
Yes.Malmesbury said:
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
Also, a belief that Brexit helps the “wealth creators” immediately disqualifies you for management on intellectual grounds.0 -
Mr. Walker, I'd take an empty vessel over one that's full of horse manure (such as the incumbent).
Mr. Eagles, please remember to wear appropriate garments (something that won't induce epileptic fits).0 -
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?1 -
I have already said that this morning and she deserves better, a lot betterCasino_Royale said:It really is unedifying and tedious to see so many try and co-opt Raducanu for the purposes of advancing their own politics.
She's just a lovely young woman who's just done fantastically well at tennis. Leave her alone.0 -
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-37321580 -
Shhh…Cicero said:
As is often mentioned, the key with polls is not the headline numbers, but the direction of travel.HYUFD said:
Only with the SNP, the Tories would still win most seats in the latest pollRoger said:I hope not. The gift that keeps on giving. Together with Johnson and Patel (who would have stopped the Raducanus arriving if they'd been around at the time) and Raab who sunbathed while Kabul fell and Coffey who hated gays when the zeitgeist changed ....it's like SKS has been given a wild card into Downing st
Your whistling in the dark makes you sound like Chemical Ali. The Conservatives have serious problems. Not least the high likelihood of a perfect storm in the economy hitting in around 6-9 months.
It’s always more fun when it comes as a shock.0 -
You seem to have got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning.Gardenwalker said:
Yes.Malmesbury said:
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
Also, a belief that Brexit helps the “wealth creators” immediately disqualifies you for management on intellectual grounds.
But again can you provide any evidence of that - for some people, restricted trade may generate them excess profits by allowing them to charge higher prices to the lack of alternatives.0 -
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
2 -
It is Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Unkind suggestions were that we now know what the Trusster's straining with constipation face is.0 -
The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/12/europes-fear-of-refugee-has-shattered-the-illusion-of-a-cosmopolitan-haven5 -
I wouldn't be surprised if cases stay around 30000 a day all winter wither the mixing but deaths gradually climb towards 500 per day in winter. The question is can people live with thatturbotubbs said:
One of the issues we have is that for some, no-one should die of Covid. I don't know any other disease or condition that this is the case for. I think too many people believe that if we just try really hard we can suppress Covid for good, They are wrong, and have been wrong since Jan 2020. It is now endemic.another_richard said:
But isn't the most likely place to catch covid a hospital ?Cookie said:
Roughly 1 in 5,000 people die every week.another_richard said:
I wonder how many of the 256 were oldies dying with but not from covid or finished off by covid a few weeks earlier than they would have been without it.CarlottaVance said:Deaths in England 2/1 - 2/7
COVID: 51,281
Double jabbed: 640 - some infected before vaccination
Double jabbed + 2 weeks: 256
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021
We're currently getting about 250,000 positives a week.
If we were to simply pick 250,000 people at random from the population - let's say back in 2019 before covid was with us - 200 of those would die within the next four weeks.
A major caveat to the above is that positives aren't distributed at random throughout the population. Positives are very strongly clustered around those who will not 'die anyway' - i.e. the relatively young. Finger in the air estimate is that the true figure of 'die anyways' is about 20-40 rather than 200. But still.
Maths all off the top of my head - feel free to tell me where I went wrong!
So a sick oldie might have a good chance of being infected.
I am heartened by the England cases trending down in recent days. I don't think many expected this in the week after the schools went back, especially after what was seen in Scotland. Perhaps Scotland conflated opening up more with the school return?0 -
Maybe spend some of that saved money on if not a fancy-schmancy peleton then at least some exercise-type machinery (running machine, sit down pedal machine, bog-standard exercise bike, etc). Especially as winter draws in it's more difficult to get out and exercise.RochdalePioneers said:
Same. No holiday of any description this year (new house/country feels like a holiday anyway), hotels have all been work trips, 1st gigs this year are December, very little personal mileage, haven't eaten in a proper restaurant since last time on holiday February last year.FrancisUrquhart said:
I've saved a fortune during the Pandemic for basically those reasons, especially the eating out, gigs and travel.TheScreamingEagles said:
Using myself as an example of the typical working man.tlg86 said:
Train tickets and foreign holidays?CarlottaVance said:"Broadest shoulders"
Richer households saw a bigger reduction in spending than poorer households
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1437337483809894402?s=20
I suppose richer households have more discretionary spending (restaurants/entertainment) than poorer.....
Biggest drops in my spending since the first lockdown.
1) Foreign holidays
2) Train tickets
3) UK hotel stays
4) Events like gigs, theatre, and cinema
5) Work clothes
6) Fuel
7) Restaurants
Slightly offset with more technology purchases.
Do need to buy a couple of suits for the Germany trip next month. Middle-aged spread, lockdown and depression means that a size up is needed despite best efforts to drop it back off again.
As I have also mentioned on here before, a VR headset will give you all kinds of options of fitness which are more fun.
That might help to sort the suit sizes and the endorphins won't hurt either.1 -
Someone on here found something (I tried could only find interest in Bianca Andreescu, though maybe there will be interest in Raducanu now). Someone also found a piece from Canada that said "we could claim her as our own", which is a surprising attitude to come out of Canada.OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-585413140 -
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.14 -
As usual I have prawn sandwich brigade tickets, so I have to wear something classy.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Walker, I'd take an empty vessel over one that's full of horse manure (such as the incumbent).
Mr. Eagles, please remember to wear appropriate garments (something that won't induce epileptic fits).0 -
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.0 -
True!eek said:
You seem to have got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning.Gardenwalker said:
Yes.Malmesbury said:
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
Also, a belief that Brexit helps the “wealth creators” immediately disqualifies you for management on intellectual grounds.
But again can you provide any evidence of that - for some people, restricted trade may generate them excess profits by allowing them to charge higher prices to the lack of alternatives.
I forgot about that.
Brexit is an absolute boon for inefficient protectionists.0 -
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?0 -
That’s a lot of words to say “some Remainers are ignorant too!”CarlottaVance said:The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/12/europes-fear-of-refugee-has-shattered-the-illusion-of-a-cosmopolitan-haven2 -
Mr. Eagles, I shall pray for the retinas of those whose gaze shall lay upon thee.0
-
Quite a few on here could learn from that very interesting pieceCarlottaVance said:The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/12/europes-fear-of-refugee-has-shattered-the-illusion-of-a-cosmopolitan-haven0 -
Given they have Simona Halep, I'm surprised that they think she couldn't have achieved this had she grown up there.BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-37321580 -
Yes, but what are her views on pineapple pizza and Die Hard?Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.2 -
Lol.Theuniondivvie said:
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.1 -
If you wrote this on Twitter you'd get thousands of retwits from FBPE types, could be a good experiment.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.1 -
F1: fun fact from Twitter: there are 20 cars on the grid. Mazepin is 21st in the standings.
https://twitter.com/jpa_f1/status/14371016977180057671 -
If we look at what she did *not* wear in the final, we can go a fair way to assessing her distance from the Orange Book wing of the party.Gardenwalker said:
Lol.Theuniondivvie said:
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.0 -
No (unbelievably)TOPPING said:
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?0 -
Good to see that The Guardian is now the favourite newspaper of the EU sceptics.CarlottaVance said:The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/12/europes-fear-of-refugee-has-shattered-the-illusion-of-a-cosmopolitan-haven0 -
Hmmm. Perhaps instead of Labour putting the burden of paying for social care on those with the broadest shoulders, they should instead put it on those with the broadest power stance?TheScreamingEagles said:
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?0 -
I know. You are right to be excited by Fraserburgh FC's amazing start to the season and the prospect of fighting for promotion to the Scottish Football League.TheScreamingEagles said:
On Wednesday I'm going to my first football match since the first lockdown.FrancisUrquhart said:
I've saved a fortune during the Pandemic for basically those reasons, especially the eating out, gigs and travel.TheScreamingEagles said:
Using myself as an example of the typical working man.tlg86 said:
Train tickets and foreign holidays?CarlottaVance said:"Broadest shoulders"
Richer households saw a bigger reduction in spending than poorer households
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1437337483809894402?s=20
I suppose richer households have more discretionary spending (restaurants/entertainment) than poorer.....
Biggest drops in my spending since the first lockdown.
1) Foreign holidays
2) Train tickets
3) UK hotel stays
4) Events like gigs, theatre, and cinema
5) Work clothes
6) Fuel
7) Restaurants
Slightly offset with more technology purchases.
I'm so excited.0 -
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.Gardenwalker said:
Lol.Theuniondivvie said:
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.0 -
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-37310360 -
We've had no problematic inflation above target in that period, that's why only once has the Governor had to write a letter and even then only because it was 0.1% above the threshold triggering one and it immediately came back down.Gardenwalker said:
Of course I am.moonshine said:
You are aware why central banks don’t set a CPI target at zero percent I suppose?Gardenwalker said:
According to the Bank of England’s online calculator thing, inflation averaged 2.5% per annum from 2015 to 2020.Philip_Thompson said:
Except for the simple fact that we know there has not been any CPI inflation in recent years.Gardenwalker said:
The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.eek said:
Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.Gardenwalker said:
You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.eek said:
It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.Gardenwalker said:
What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.Philip_Thompson said:
The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦♂️Gardenwalker said:
Take it up with the academics.Philip_Thompson said:
🤦♂️Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
And yet the Governor of the Bank of England has had to write "please explain" letters six times to explain why CPI was too low since the referendum: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets
Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.
Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦♂️
*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.
My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.
I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.
By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.
But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.
That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.
It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.
So no, alleged CPI is the Emperor with no clothes - this paper is trying to say "look at all that expensive silk" but we can already see that there is nothing there.
I’m not saying it’s been high, but it’s not zero.
I am merely rebutting the previous assertion that we’ve had no inflation.
The entire time post-referendum barring a single month the rate of inflation has been within or below target, very frequently below target. So if Brexit has caused 2.9% of that inflation then you must be implying we'd have had deflation in that period.
Deflation is not an improvement, or is that what you'd have wished for?0 -
But the overall ranking is more akin to PR, I guess.LostPassword said:
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.Gardenwalker said:
Lol.Theuniondivvie said:
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.0 -
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?IshmaelZ said:
No (unbelievably)TOPPING said:
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?0 -
Also, poor Rishi - he didn't get the memo!TheScreamingEagles said:
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
1 -
Typical. Politicising sport again. Can't we just celebrate Raducanu's victory?LostPassword said:
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.Gardenwalker said:
Lol.Theuniondivvie said:
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.0 -
Not a good week for Brexit that's for sure.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....which are used as an explanation. So much so in fact that the words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.0 -
Have a look at the figures again, your maths are out.Philip_Thompson said:
We've had no problematic inflation above target in that period, that's why only once has the Governor had to write a letter and even then only because it was 0.1% above the threshold triggering one and it immediately came back down.Gardenwalker said:
Of course I am.moonshine said:
You are aware why central banks don’t set a CPI target at zero percent I suppose?Gardenwalker said:
According to the Bank of England’s online calculator thing, inflation averaged 2.5% per annum from 2015 to 2020.Philip_Thompson said:
Except for the simple fact that we know there has not been any CPI inflation in recent years.Gardenwalker said:
The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.eek said:
Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.Gardenwalker said:
You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.eek said:
It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.Gardenwalker said:
What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.Philip_Thompson said:
The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦♂️Gardenwalker said:
Take it up with the academics.Philip_Thompson said:
🤦♂️Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
And yet the Governor of the Bank of England has had to write "please explain" letters six times to explain why CPI was too low since the referendum: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets
Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.
Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦♂️
*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.
My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.
I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.
By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.
But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.
That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.
It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.
So no, alleged CPI is the Emperor with no clothes - this paper is trying to say "look at all that expensive silk" but we can already see that there is nothing there.
I’m not saying it’s been high, but it’s not zero.
I am merely rebutting the previous assertion that we’ve had no inflation.
The entire time post-referendum barring a single month the rate of inflation has been within or below target, very frequently below target. So if Brexit has caused 2.9% of that inflation then you must be implying we'd have had deflation in that period.
Deflation is not an improvement, or is that what you'd have wished for?
We’ve experienced more that 2.9% inflation since 15/16.0 -
This is a tweet @Philip_Thompson will love as it proves his point for him
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1437334452544344064
To make up the £20 people on universal credit are losing they don't need to work 2 hours to earn £20 they need to earn £67 which is near enough a full day if on minimum wage.4 -
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.BlancheLivermore said:
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-37310360 -
Given that Rishi is shorter than me (and that says something) I can see why he doesn't do it.Selebian said:
Also, poor Rishi - he didn't get the memo!TheScreamingEagles said:
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?0 -
Thank you. Its a point I've been making here for years.eek said:This is a tweet @Philip_Thompson will love as it proves his point for him
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1437334452544344064
To make up the £20 people on universal credit are losing they don't need to work 2 hours to earn £20 they need to earn £67 which is near enough a full day if on minimum wage.
The tax rate on low earners is obscene in this country and the Government has just made it worse.3 -
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?TOPPING said:
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?IshmaelZ said:
No (unbelievably)TOPPING said:
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.0 -
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.Roger said:
Not a good week for Brexit that's for sure.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both
a) false
b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.3 -
It shouldn’t be forgotten that it was Boris Johnson’s decision to deal with Brexit and the pandemic at the same time. The transition could and arguably should have been extended by, say, two years.Roger said:
Not a good week for Brexit that's for sure.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....which are used as an explanation. So much so in fact that the words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.2 -
Especially if they try to tax her - USA-style.tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-585413140 -
But she's clearly not Romanian.tlg86 said:
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.BlancheLivermore said:
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
1 -
Why is she wearing two watches?IshmaelZ said:
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?TOPPING said:
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?IshmaelZ said:
No (unbelievably)TOPPING said:
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.0 -
ye godsIshmaelZ said:
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?TOPPING said:
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?IshmaelZ said:
No (unbelievably)TOPPING said:
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.0 -
Exactly!Northern_Al said:
Typical. Politicising sport again. Can't we just celebrate Raducanu's victory?LostPassword said:
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.Gardenwalker said:
Lol.Theuniondivvie said:
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
I was pleased as punch when she was elected chairman of the Bromley Lib Dem social sub-committee.
Apparently she has ordered a charabanc to take some of the older members to Eastbourne during the half term break.3 -
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.Roger said:
Not a good week for Brexit that's for sure.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both
a) false
b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?0 -
This is a key part of most serious analysis of the GDP cost of Brexit. Goods and services will become more expensive due to new trade barriers and a less efficient market, but without a corresponding increase in incomes. This is expected to contribute about a 3% to 4% decrease in relative GDP on purchasing parity, as I recall.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=210 -
Right hand one is a band showing solidarity with something, I think.BlancheLivermore said:
Why is she wearing two watches?IshmaelZ said:
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?TOPPING said:
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?IshmaelZ said:
No (unbelievably)TOPPING said:
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.0 -
Where is that mentioned / covered in the report.FF43 said:
This is a key part of most serious analysis of the GDP cost of Brexit. Goods and services will become more expensive due to new trade barriers and a less efficient market, but without a corresponding increase in incomes. This is expected to result in about a 3% to 4% decrease in relative GDP on purchasing parity, as I recall.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
The report covers up to 2018 and the additional paperwork only arrived this year.0 -
The Uk has several structural problems:Malmesbury said:
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.2 -
Quite. The people Ray talks about are people who came over from Romania to live and work here. Now, I'm happy to call them British if they like (I've got visions of that Goodness Gracious Me sketch), but equally, I won't criticize them for supporting Romania in the football were they to play England.Cookie said:
But she's clearly not Romanian.tlg86 said:
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.BlancheLivermore said:
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
It's funny, because most of the twatterati have played the "isn't multiculturalism/immigration wonderful?" card and, because of Brexit, have been keen to play up her Romanian identity. As you say, she is a Canadian immigrant if she is any kind of immigrant.0 -
The paper assets that Brexit (the vote) caused inflation, yes.Philip_Thompson said:
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.Roger said:
Not a good week for Brexit that's for sure.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both
a) false
b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
This was a net loss to consumers, and not does it seem to have improved the balance of payment deficit. So I’m saying, worse.0 -
@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.0 -
Being born somewhere and having parents from somewhere are two different things.Cookie said:
But she's clearly not Romanian.tlg86 said:
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.BlancheLivermore said:
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
I think that your pedant would have some validity saying she was Canadian naturalised British.0 -
Had a look at a big circulation paper. Just a dozen or two dozen articles. Generally ".. with a Romanian father."OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
Apparently Sean Lock is now a vampire with an opinion:
and there's a huge scandal here in the UK about comments on GMTV, which we have all missed.
"Ray wrote on Twitter: “If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a builder / supplier / waitress, etc. you are Romanian ”. Type of piece the BBC publishes on it's website - one person, who is a friend of our writer, said...
And Boris Becker compares ER to Muhammad Ali. Why does BB look like a teazle?
And SeanT has some competition from a cucumber. Love the "it costs as much as a used car". Apparently health benefits, so some of our PB druggies may be interested.
Best I can do in 5 minutes..0 -
Extended the boundaries of my thoughts somewhat, to be fair. I've always had a hazy concept of the 'Europe' I wanted as a sort of Holy Roman Empire plus later Christianised parts, and the article caused me, as the saying goes, 'furiously to think'!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Quite a few on here could learn from that very interesting pieceCarlottaVance said:The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/12/europes-fear-of-refugee-has-shattered-the-illusion-of-a-cosmopolitan-haven1 -
I am saying it's the other side of the same coin. Additional costs have to be paid for. This is extrq to not selling so much abroad and therefore receiving less income. Which is the other part of the relative decline in GDP due to Brexit.eek said:
Where is that mentioned / covered in the report.FF43 said:
This is a key part of most serious analysis of the GDP cost of Brexit. Goods and services will become more expensive due to new trade barriers and a less efficient market, but without a corresponding increase in incomes. This is expected to result in about a 3% to 4% decrease in relative GDP on purchasing parity, as I recall.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
The report covers up to 2018 and the additional paperwork only arrived this year.0 -
It asserts that its caused inflation, but there's been no inflation problem.Gardenwalker said:
The paper assets that Brexit (the vote) caused inflation, yes.Philip_Thompson said:
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.Roger said:
Not a good week for Brexit that's for sure.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both
a) false
b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
This was a net loss to consumers, and not does it seem to have improved the balance of payment deficit. So I’m saying, worse.
So presumably you think we'd have frequently had deflation in recent years instead? Deflation is worse than having 0.4% inflation.0 -
I think it is clear that she is as British as Prince Philip.TOPPING said:
Being born somewhere and having parents from somewhere are two different things.Cookie said:
But she's clearly not Romanian.tlg86 said:
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.BlancheLivermore said:
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
I think that your pedant would have some validity saying she was Canadian naturalised British.2 -
Again, your maths is faulty.Philip_Thompson said:
It asserts that its caused inflation, but there's been no inflation problem.Gardenwalker said:
The paper assets that Brexit (the vote) caused inflation, yes.Philip_Thompson said:
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.Roger said:
Not a good week for Brexit that's for sure.Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both
a) false
b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
This was a net loss to consumers, and not does it seem to have improved the balance of payment deficit. So I’m saying, worse.
So presumably you think we'd have frequently had deflation in recent years instead? Deflation is worse than having 0.4% inflation.
A range of tutoring options are available if you need it.0 -
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).Philip_Thompson said:@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.1 -
As ever, the last word:
“Point out Emma Raducanu’s ethnic origins and suddenly you’re the dick because everyone else is proud of her being British and you’re doing the thing the racists do. But for the right reasons. But still."
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/british-sporting-success-making-us-look-like-dicks-remainers-admit-202109132120161 -
Fixated?eek said:
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).Philip_Thompson said:@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.0 -
It is one of the mad elements of the benefits system when is becomes completely pointless to get a pay rise or work more hours.Philip_Thompson said:@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.2 -
Why would the deaths climb? And have you missed the decline in England cases?Gardensquare said:
I wouldn't be surprised if cases stay around 30000 a day all winter wither the mixing but deaths gradually climb towards 500 per day in winter. The question is can people live with thatturbotubbs said:
One of the issues we have is that for some, no-one should die of Covid. I don't know any other disease or condition that this is the case for. I think too many people believe that if we just try really hard we can suppress Covid for good, They are wrong, and have been wrong since Jan 2020. It is now endemic.another_richard said:
But isn't the most likely place to catch covid a hospital ?Cookie said:
Roughly 1 in 5,000 people die every week.another_richard said:
I wonder how many of the 256 were oldies dying with but not from covid or finished off by covid a few weeks earlier than they would have been without it.CarlottaVance said:Deaths in England 2/1 - 2/7
COVID: 51,281
Double jabbed: 640 - some infected before vaccination
Double jabbed + 2 weeks: 256
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021
We're currently getting about 250,000 positives a week.
If we were to simply pick 250,000 people at random from the population - let's say back in 2019 before covid was with us - 200 of those would die within the next four weeks.
A major caveat to the above is that positives aren't distributed at random throughout the population. Positives are very strongly clustered around those who will not 'die anyway' - i.e. the relatively young. Finger in the air estimate is that the true figure of 'die anyways' is about 20-40 rather than 200. But still.
Maths all off the top of my head - feel free to tell me where I went wrong!
So a sick oldie might have a good chance of being infected.
I am heartened by the England cases trending down in recent days. I don't think many expected this in the week after the schools went back, especially after what was seen in Scotland. Perhaps Scotland conflated opening up more with the school return?0 -
Of course our Emma is British. She speaks with the same posh southern English accent as all our tennis players do. Because they are the only type that the LTA promote.0
-
If you were a world-leading hurler of stones, or a mediocre footballer, it makes you Scottish. Probably.Cookie said:
But she's clearly not Romanian.tlg86 said:
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.BlancheLivermore said:
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
As long as you don't support the Union, in which case for some people you are unmentionable.0 -
Excellent, excellent post.Cicero said:
The Uk has several structural problems:Malmesbury said:
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
Should be a thread header.
I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.
I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.1 -
its truss doing the power/bleeding piles stand. i shopped it in for bonus lols.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has0 -
That's the spirit!RochdalePioneers said:Of course our Emma is British. She speaks with the same posh southern English accent as all our tennis players do. Because they are the only type that the LTA promote.
0 -
Fitbit?Farooq said:
Even two stopped watches give the right time four times a day.BlancheLivermore said:
Why is she wearing two watches?IshmaelZ said:
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?TOPPING said:
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?IshmaelZ said:
No (unbelievably)TOPPING said:
The one that @Dura posted is fake, right?Northern_Al said:
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.
I thought that photo was of her doing the bees-knees in a musical or dance class. Perhaps about the Zoot Suit riots.
0 -
There you go. FakeDura_Ace said:
its truss doing the power/bleeding piles stand. i shopped it in for bonus lols.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he hasnewsphoto. Spotted it a mile away.
I rock.0 -
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.Gardenwalker said:
Fixated?eek said:
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).Philip_Thompson said:@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
Basically I'm finding it hilarious that I'm point out 3 different ways in which the conclusion is biased and wrong and yet you won't accept any of them.
And we are talking about Brexit costing 2.9% - if that's the true cost of Brexit, I suspect a lot of poorly paid people will regard it as a bargain.0 -
haha. m&s boys trousers age 8-12Selebian said:
Also, poor Rishi - he didn't get the memo!TheScreamingEagles said:
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.Selebian said:
Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liz Truss.Selebian said:
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.Dura_Ace said:
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?Philip_Thompson said:
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.MattW said:
Who to Trade?HYUFD said:
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.Morris_Dancer said:Let's hope so.
And Patel.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?0 -
Perhaps her outfit was intended to highlight the inherent unfairness of the distribution of seats at the 1997 election under FPTP.LostPassword said:
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.Gardenwalker said:
Lol.Theuniondivvie said:
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.Gardenwalker said:It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
Yes. I'm certain it was.1 -
Lat's hope she doesn't have any far right relatives in Romania (not that that held Phil back).Malmesbury said:
I think it is clear that she is as British as Prince Philip.TOPPING said:
Being born somewhere and having parents from somewhere are two different things.Cookie said:
But she's clearly not Romanian.tlg86 said:
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.BlancheLivermore said:
British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"BlancheLivermore said:
She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..OldKingCole said:
Is there news from the Romanian press?tlg86 said:
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.FrancisUrquhart said:Kerrringgghhhhh....
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
I think that your pedant would have some validity saying she was Canadian naturalised British.0 -
So they simultaneously underestimate and overestimate inflation? Ok.eek said:
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.Gardenwalker said:
Fixated?eek said:
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).Philip_Thompson said:@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.0 -
I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.Gardenwalker said:
Excellent, excellent post.Cicero said:
The Uk has several structural problems:Malmesbury said:
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
Should be a thread header.
I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.
I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.0 -
Where did I say that?Gardenwalker said:
So they simultaneously underestimate and overestimate inflation? Ok.eek said:
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.Gardenwalker said:
Fixated?eek said:
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).Philip_Thompson said:@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
I'm starting to think you are either a windup merchant or have very poor reading comprehension skills.0 -
It is the implication of the “biases” you claim to have identified.eek said:
Where did I say that?Gardenwalker said:
So they simultaneously underestimate and overestimate inflation? Ok.eek said:
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.Gardenwalker said:
Fixated?eek said:
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).Philip_Thompson said:@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
I'm starting to think you are either a windup merchant or have very poor reading comprehension skills.
One of which seems to be based on your personal experience of purchasing power in 2016…
Edit: I see you have edited your last post and are now saying the inflation was “worth it” for low income earners.
Thus demonstrating my typology of Brexit excuses in response to any adverse outcome:
A - the outcome is not true.
B - the outcome is someone/thing else’s fault.
C - the outcome is actually good.0 -
It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.eek said:
I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.Gardenwalker said:
Excellent, excellent post.Cicero said:
The Uk has several structural problems:Malmesbury said:
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.Gardenwalker said:
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.Northern_Al said:
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.another_richard said:
Why would you doubt that ?Gardenwalker said:
Of course you do.another_richard said:
I work in manufacturing.Gardenwalker said:
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.another_richard said:
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?Gardenwalker said:New research just published in the International Economic Review.
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
So yes I have.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
Should be a thread header.
I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.
I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.
Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.0
This discussion has been closed.