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Is EdSec Gavin going to be a victim in the re-shuffle? – politicalbetting.com
Is EdSec Gavin going to be a victim in the re-shuffle? – politicalbetting.com
All the signs are that BoJo, who reputedly hates firing people, is getting ready for a reshuffle that could happen this week. The fact that the Tories have lost their lead in two of the latest polls is adding to the speculation that we might see something happening this week.
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And I don't know if quality replacements exist...
And Patel.
Should this include shoulder pads?
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.
https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21
Maybe just Williamson booted, and replaced by
Dowden. Something like that.
https://news.stv.tv/entertainment/alex-salmond-puppet-unveiled-for-new-series-of-spitting-image?top
O/T: I yield to nobody in my interest in politics combined with lack of interest in tennis, but am I the only one to be irritated by the way everyone from left to right is trying to make Raducanu their poster child? If she wants to be active in politics, fine, otherwise let her enjoy herself with whatever she wants. (My suggestion that she might fancy being a Bromley councillor was a joke...)
It probably did cause some depreciation but not a staggering amount. Supply chain problems and COVID directly (linked, of course) have been more dramatic.
And yet the Governor of the Bank of England has had to write "please explain" letters six times to explain why CPI was too low since the referendum: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets
Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.
Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦♂️
COVID: 51,281
Double jabbed: 640 - some infected before vaccination
Double jabbed + 2 weeks: 256
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021
*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.
And how well would he deliver enhanced trade deals, and a Secretariat to keep EuCo in check long-term?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58502618
We have had no inflation for the past few years, CPI has been too low since the referendum, if you're saying it would have been 2.9% lower then that would mean we'd have had major deflation were it not for the Brexit vote.
I see no evidence that we would have had deflation, but if we would have then thank goodness that was avoided. Deflation is a bad thing, not a good thing.
My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.
By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.
We're currently getting about 250,000 positives a week.
If we were to simply pick 250,000 people at random from the population - let's say back in 2019 before covid was with us - 200 of those would die within the next four weeks.
A major caveat to the above is that positives aren't distributed at random throughout the population. Positives are very strongly clustered around those who will not 'die anyway' - i.e. the relatively young. Finger in the air estimate is that the true figure of 'die anyways' is about 20-40 rather than 200. But still.
Maths all off the top of my head - feel free to tell me where I went wrong!
Richer households saw a bigger reduction in spending than poorer households
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1437337483809894402?s=20
I suppose richer households have more discretionary spending (restaurants/entertainment) than poorer.....
But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.
And the reality is that between June 21st and July 1st the Sterline / Euro rate dropped from €1.30 to €1.20 which was an 8% drop with similar impacts on cable (£/$). So if the impact is only 2.9% then the impact was minimal and far less than you would expect from an 8% change in currency values.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/m25-closed-climate-protest-today-b1918969.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58540935
Don't critcise the party.....
Are these the famed army of loft laggers that politicians always talk about?
1 - £328.00 / £287.00
2 - £432.90 / £365.80
3 - £551.63 / £450.13
4 - £688.89 / £546.29
5 - £937.38 / £744.28
All-£586.56 / £477.46
So a sick oldie might have a good chance of being infected.
That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.
It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.
So yes I have.
All that stat shows is that the vast majoruty of deaths in H1 happened before people had the chance to be double vaccinated (i.e. in Jan & Feb). Vaccines work, but anyone using that as evidence is being either obtuse or disengenuous.
So no, alleged CPI is the Emperor with no clothes - this paper is trying to say "look at all that expensive silk" but we can already see that there is nothing there.
I am heartened by the England cases trending down in recent days. I don't think many expected this in the week after the schools went back, especially after what was seen in Scotland. Perhaps Scotland conflated opening up more with the school return?
These were the lowest COVID death numbers recorded this year:
21-May-21: 107
28-May-21: 95
04-Jun-21: 98
11-Jun-21: 84
18-Jun-21: 102
25-Jun-21: 99
02-Jul-21: 109
I reckon about 100 a week are dying with COVID.
Videogames are now limited to one hour on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays only.
If you then look at the actual figures a better question would be why if Sterling depreciated by 8-10% did prices only increase by 2.9% and not something like the 6% you would expect in that circumstance. Who / what absorbed the rest of the change in import prices.
Laughable.
Even Beefy Botham would question that methodology.
You could just as fairly compare the deaths with and without vaccine for the entire pandemic, as people last year had just as much chance of being double jabbed as they did in February this year. But that would be obvious nonsense, and so is this.
Customs officials are not wealth creators.
Excess deaths by week. April-ish to now has been noise one way or the other. The pertinent question is what happens as we move through autumn and into winter. And to answer that we need data on the longevity of vaccine protection and the detail of the government’s booster plan.
Currently most people in ICU are not vaccinated (anecdotes from various sources).That should be good enough for most people to get vaccinated.
But you can't account for idiots.
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
I’m not saying it’s been high, but it’s not zero.
The actual figures will be way worse as we went from an average of €1.28 prior to the referendum to €1.13 afterwards (using average figures from my travel expenses for 2015 and 2018 ).
So we have a 2.9% change in prices from a 12% drop in exchange rates.
BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314
I don’t think, by the way, that appreciation/depreciation feed automatically into inflation and certainly not 1:1.
There are a gazillion reasons why they don’t, ie market willingness to accept price changes, substitutability of product etc etc.
One of the many disappointments of Brexit is that sterling’s fall didn’t seem to deliver much/any uplift in U.K. exports, for example.
1st round
Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Bertrand 16%
Melenchon 11%
2nd round
Macron 54%
Le Pen 46%
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1437336958502592512?s=20
Edited extra bit: *tedious may be a better word.
I think anyone could have told you that.
I am merely rebutting the previous assertion that we’ve had no inflation.
Biggest drops in my spending since the first lockdown.
1) Foreign holidays
2) Train tickets
3) UK hotel stays
4) Events like gigs, sporting events, theatre, and cinema
5) Work clothes
6) Fuel
7) Restaurants
Slightly offset with more technology purchases.
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152
So, think again.
Time you opened your eyes to the politics and public perception
Your whistling in the dark makes you sound like Chemical Ali. The Conservatives have serious problems. Not least the high likelihood of a perfect storm in the economy hitting in around 6-9 months.
Do need to buy a couple of suits for the Germany trip next month. Middle-aged spread, lockdown and depression means that a size up is needed despite best efforts to drop it back off again.