Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.
Take it up with the academics.
Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦♂️
The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦♂️
What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.
*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.
It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.
My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.
You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.
I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.
By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.
Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.
But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.
The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.
That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.
It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.
Except for the simple fact that we know there has not been any CPI inflation in recent years.
So no, alleged CPI is the Emperor with no clothes - this paper is trying to say "look at all that expensive silk" but we can already see that there is nothing there.
According to the Bank of England’s online calculator thing, inflation averaged 2.5% per annum from 2015 to 2020.
I’m not saying it’s been high, but it’s not zero.
Congratulations - I think you've just proved that all the report is saying is that the impact of Brexit matched the rate of inflation in 2017.
I think anyone could have told you that.
2.9% aggregate contribution to a 2.5% per annum rate.
So, think again.
That was me being faciious
If you want an answer go and do some work yourself - as I suspect the rest sits in their use of inappropriate oil prices to reflect the market.
Key Differences There has been a trend, due to advancements in oil drilling and fracking, of West Texas Intermediate becoming cheaper than Brent Crude oil.
So the reality is that report uses an inappropriate base for oil prices and that may be itself reflect the rest of the difference.
If you want to discuss this further may I suggest you find a justification for why they are using west texas crude when our internal oil price will be based on brent oil prices. That is probably more than enough to explain the difference between the 2.9% rate recorded in the report and the 2.5% inflation rate you are quoting without any reference
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
Naah. The godawful prominent photo of her in MC Hammer keks and pose. The phone held upside down to here ear. Must be a deep fake. Nobody would (a) take those pictures and think "yep, that's great" and (b) issue them for positive PR purposes...
The epicentre of Britain's pandemic house price boom is just up the road from Darlington. (and I suspect where many of the senior Treasury people who move there will choose to live).
Well the locals in Richmondshire have been priced out for decades as is highlighted further down - beyond that I won't comment beyond the fact there have been appeals to prove that working from home meets the local occupancy regulations (much to the annoyance of the national parks).
Do you have a link to National Parks being annoyed? And to the Planning Appeals?
Quite interesting. I don't see how they can fight that - the peeps are working locally, contributing to the community, and if are there X days per year...
The Beeboids are over-bigging up the differences. Those 10 viewings and 9 offers type figures are exactly what I am seeing here in North Notts.
It shows the lunacy of p*ssing away £12-15bn (my est, based on 12bn from Stamp Duty in 19-20) on a Stamp Duty holiday in one year - that's about 40% of the money they estimate they needed to build HS2 to Yorkshire and the NE. Add in the money spaffed on extra HS2 holes in the ground and other things for Southern Nimbies, and we are nearly there.
The epicentre of Britain's pandemic house price boom is just up the road from Darlington. (and I suspect where many of the senior Treasury people who move there will choose to live).
Well the locals in Richmondshire have been priced out for decades as is highlighted further down - beyond that I won't comment beyond the fact there have been appeals to prove that working from home meets the local occupancy regulations (much to the annoyance of the national parks).
Do you have a link to National Parks being annoyed?
And to the Planning Appeals?
Quite interesting.
The Beeboids are over-bigging up the differences. Those 10 viewings and 9 offers type figures are exactly what I am seeing here in North Notts.
It shows the lunacy of p*ssing away £12-15bn (my est, based on 12bn from Stamp Duty in 19-20) on a Stamp Duty holiday in one year - that's about 40% of the money they estimate they needed to build HS2 to Yorkshire and the NE. Add in the money spaffed on extra HS2 holes in the ground and other things for Southern Nimbies, and we are nearly there.
To answer that question - check my past comments and see what my wife does for a living which also explains why we live where we do (I won't live in a rural area as I like and used to need, public transport options).
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
Nasal. The godawful prominent photo of her in MC Hammer keks and pose. The phone held upside down to here ear. Must be a deep fake. Nobody would (a) take those pictures and think "yep, that's great" and (b) issue them for positive PR purposes...
The reference is Bowie, not MC Hammer. But agree she is an absolute empty vessel.
(Though she was right about putting the NHS backlog costs on the deficit!).
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Truss to FO looks a very strong bet, and I agree that sacking Patel would create a vulnerability.
O/T: I yield to nobody in my interest in politics combined with lack of interest in tennis, but am I the only one to be irritated by the way everyone from left to right is trying to make Raducanu their poster child? If she wants to be active in politics, fine, otherwise let her enjoy herself with whatever she wants. (My suggestion that she might fancy being a Bromley councillor was a joke...)
Nick precisely no one IRL is associating Emma Raducanu and politics.
Typical PB: wildly misjudging political traction among the general public. Most normal people really, really don’t care that much, and never think about politics.
PBers see politics in absolutely everything. They are highly atypical.
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
Yes.
Also, a belief that Brexit helps the “wealth creators” immediately disqualifies you for management on intellectual grounds.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
I hope not. The gift that keeps on giving. Together with Johnson and Patel (who would have stopped the Raducanus arriving if they'd been around at the time) and Raab who sunbathed while Kabul fell and Coffey who hated gays when the zeitgeist changed ....it's like SKS has been given a wild card into Downing st
Only with the SNP, the Tories would still win most seats in the latest poll
As is often mentioned, the key with polls is not the headline numbers, but the direction of travel.
Your whistling in the dark makes you sound like Chemical Ali. The Conservatives have serious problems. Not least the high likelihood of a perfect storm in the economy hitting in around 6-9 months.
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
Yes.
Also, a belief that Brexit helps the “wealth creators” immediately disqualifies you for management on intellectual grounds.
You seem to have got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning.
But again can you provide any evidence of that - for some people, restricted trade may generate them excess profits by allowing them to charge higher prices to the lack of alternatives.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
It is Truss. Unkind suggestions were that we now know what the Trusster's straining with constipation face is.
I wonder how many of the 256 were oldies dying with but not from covid or finished off by covid a few weeks earlier than they would have been without it.
Roughly 1 in 5,000 people die every week.
We're currently getting about 250,000 positives a week.
If we were to simply pick 250,000 people at random from the population - let's say back in 2019 before covid was with us - 200 of those would die within the next four weeks.
A major caveat to the above is that positives aren't distributed at random throughout the population. Positives are very strongly clustered around those who will not 'die anyway' - i.e. the relatively young. Finger in the air estimate is that the true figure of 'die anyways' is about 20-40 rather than 200. But still.
Maths all off the top of my head - feel free to tell me where I went wrong!
But isn't the most likely place to catch covid a hospital ?
So a sick oldie might have a good chance of being infected.
One of the issues we have is that for some, no-one should die of Covid. I don't know any other disease or condition that this is the case for. I think too many people believe that if we just try really hard we can suppress Covid for good, They are wrong, and have been wrong since Jan 2020. It is now endemic.
I am heartened by the England cases trending down in recent days. I don't think many expected this in the week after the schools went back, especially after what was seen in Scotland. Perhaps Scotland conflated opening up more with the school return?
I wouldn't be surprised if cases stay around 30000 a day all winter wither the mixing but deaths gradually climb towards 500 per day in winter. The question is can people live with that
The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
I suppose richer households have more discretionary spending (restaurants/entertainment) than poorer.....
Train tickets and foreign holidays?
Using myself as an example of the typical working man.
Biggest drops in my spending since the first lockdown.
1) Foreign holidays 2) Train tickets 3) UK hotel stays 4) Events like gigs, theatre, and cinema 5) Work clothes 6) Fuel 7) Restaurants
Slightly offset with more technology purchases.
I've saved a fortune during the Pandemic for basically those reasons, especially the eating out, gigs and travel.
Same. No holiday of any description this year (new house/country feels like a holiday anyway), hotels have all been work trips, 1st gigs this year are December, very little personal mileage, haven't eaten in a proper restaurant since last time on holiday February last year.
Do need to buy a couple of suits for the Germany trip next month. Middle-aged spread, lockdown and depression means that a size up is needed despite best efforts to drop it back off again.
Maybe spend some of that saved money on if not a fancy-schmancy peleton then at least some exercise-type machinery (running machine, sit down pedal machine, bog-standard exercise bike, etc). Especially as winter draws in it's more difficult to get out and exercise.
As I have also mentioned on here before, a VR headset will give you all kinds of options of fitness which are more fun.
That might help to sort the suit sizes and the endorphins won't hurt either.
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.
Is there news from the Romanian press?
Someone on here found something (I tried could only find interest in Bianca Andreescu, though maybe there will be interest in Raducanu now). Someone also found a piece from Canada that said "we could claim her as our own", which is a surprising attitude to come out of Canada.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
Yes.
Also, a belief that Brexit helps the “wealth creators” immediately disqualifies you for management on intellectual grounds.
You seem to have got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning.
But again can you provide any evidence of that - for some people, restricted trade may generate them excess profits by allowing them to charge higher prices to the lack of alternatives.
True! I forgot about that. Brexit is an absolute boon for inefficient protectionists.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
Yes, but what are her views on pineapple pizza and Die Hard?
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.
Lol.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
If you wrote this on Twitter you'd get thousands of retwits from FBPE types, could be a good experiment.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.
Lol.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
If we look at what she did *not* wear in the final, we can go a fair way to assessing her distance from the Orange Book wing of the party.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.
Hmmm. Perhaps instead of Labour putting the burden of paying for social care on those with the broadest shoulders, they should instead put it on those with the broadest power stance?
I suppose richer households have more discretionary spending (restaurants/entertainment) than poorer.....
Train tickets and foreign holidays?
Using myself as an example of the typical working man.
Biggest drops in my spending since the first lockdown.
1) Foreign holidays 2) Train tickets 3) UK hotel stays 4) Events like gigs, theatre, and cinema 5) Work clothes 6) Fuel 7) Restaurants
Slightly offset with more technology purchases.
I've saved a fortune during the Pandemic for basically those reasons, especially the eating out, gigs and travel.
On Wednesday I'm going to my first football match since the first lockdown.
I'm so excited.
I know. You are right to be excited by Fraserburgh FC's amazing start to the season and the prospect of fighting for promotion to the Scottish Football League.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.
Lol.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.
Take it up with the academics.
Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦♂️
The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦♂️
What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.
*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.
It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.
My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.
You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.
I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.
By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.
Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.
But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.
The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.
That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.
It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.
Except for the simple fact that we know there has not been any CPI inflation in recent years.
So no, alleged CPI is the Emperor with no clothes - this paper is trying to say "look at all that expensive silk" but we can already see that there is nothing there.
According to the Bank of England’s online calculator thing, inflation averaged 2.5% per annum from 2015 to 2020.
I’m not saying it’s been high, but it’s not zero.
You are aware why central banks don’t set a CPI target at zero percent I suppose?
Of course I am.
I am merely rebutting the previous assertion that we’ve had no inflation.
We've had no problematic inflation above target in that period, that's why only once has the Governor had to write a letter and even then only because it was 0.1% above the threshold triggering one and it immediately came back down.
The entire time post-referendum barring a single month the rate of inflation has been within or below target, very frequently below target. So if Brexit has caused 2.9% of that inflation then you must be implying we'd have had deflation in that period.
Deflation is not an improvement, or is that what you'd have wished for?
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.
Lol.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
But the overall ranking is more akin to PR, I guess.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.
Lol.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
Typical. Politicising sport again. Can't we just celebrate Raducanu's victory?
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....which are used as an explanation. So much so in fact that the words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.
Take it up with the academics.
Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦♂️
The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦♂️
What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.
*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.
It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.
My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.
You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.
I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.
By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.
Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.
But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.
The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.
That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.
It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.
Except for the simple fact that we know there has not been any CPI inflation in recent years.
So no, alleged CPI is the Emperor with no clothes - this paper is trying to say "look at all that expensive silk" but we can already see that there is nothing there.
According to the Bank of England’s online calculator thing, inflation averaged 2.5% per annum from 2015 to 2020.
I’m not saying it’s been high, but it’s not zero.
You are aware why central banks don’t set a CPI target at zero percent I suppose?
Of course I am.
I am merely rebutting the previous assertion that we’ve had no inflation.
We've had no problematic inflation above target in that period, that's why only once has the Governor had to write a letter and even then only because it was 0.1% above the threshold triggering one and it immediately came back down.
The entire time post-referendum barring a single month the rate of inflation has been within or below target, very frequently below target. So if Brexit has caused 2.9% of that inflation then you must be implying we'd have had deflation in that period.
Deflation is not an improvement, or is that what you'd have wished for?
Have a look at the figures again, your maths are out.
We’ve experienced more that 2.9% inflation since 15/16.
To make up the £20 people on universal credit are losing they don't need to work 2 hours to earn £20 they need to earn £67 which is near enough a full day if on minimum wage.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.
Also, poor Rishi - he didn't get the memo!
Given that Rishi is shorter than me (and that says something) I can see why he doesn't do it.
To make up the £20 people on universal credit are losing they don't need to work 2 hours to earn £20 they need to earn £67 which is near enough a full day if on minimum wage.
Thank you. Its a point I've been making here for years.
The tax rate on low earners is obscene in this country and the Government has just made it worse.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both a) false b) someone else’s fault
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....which are used as an explanation. So much so in fact that the words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that it was Boris Johnson’s decision to deal with Brexit and the pandemic at the same time. The transition could and arguably should have been extended by, say, two years.
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.
But she's clearly not Romanian. She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here. Romanian doesn't come into it. My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.
Lol.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
Typical. Politicising sport again. Can't we just celebrate Raducanu's victory?
Exactly!
I was pleased as punch when she was elected chairman of the Bromley Lib Dem social sub-committee.
Apparently she has ordered a charabanc to take some of the older members to Eastbourne during the half term break.
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both a) false b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
This is a key part of most serious analysis of the GDP cost of Brexit. Goods and services will become more expensive due to new trade barriers and a less efficient market, but without a corresponding increase in incomes. This is expected to contribute about a 3% to 4% decrease in relative GDP on purchasing parity, as I recall.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.
Why is she wearing two watches?
Right hand one is a band showing solidarity with something, I think.
This is a key part of most serious analysis of the GDP cost of Brexit. Goods and services will become more expensive due to new trade barriers and a less efficient market, but without a corresponding increase in incomes. This is expected to result in about a 3% to 4% decrease in relative GDP on purchasing parity, as I recall.
Where is that mentioned / covered in the report.
The report covers up to 2018 and the additional paperwork only arrived this year.
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
The Uk has several structural problems:
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure. 2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more 3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero. 4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment. 5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem. 6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here 7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.
But she's clearly not Romanian. She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here. Romanian doesn't come into it. My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
Quite. The people Ray talks about are people who came over from Romania to live and work here. Now, I'm happy to call them British if they like (I've got visions of that Goodness Gracious Me sketch), but equally, I won't criticize them for supporting Romania in the football were they to play England.
It's funny, because most of the twatterati have played the "isn't multiculturalism/immigration wonderful?" card and, because of Brexit, have been keen to play up her Romanian identity. As you say, she is a Canadian immigrant if she is any kind of immigrant.
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both a) false b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
The paper assets that Brexit (the vote) caused inflation, yes.
This was a net loss to consumers, and not does it seem to have improved the balance of payment deficit. So I’m saying, worse.
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.
But she's clearly not Romanian. She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here. Romanian doesn't come into it. My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
Being born somewhere and having parents from somewhere are two different things.
I think that your pedant would have some validity saying she was Canadian naturalised British.
For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.
Is there news from the Romanian press?
Had a look at a big circulation paper. Just a dozen or two dozen articles. Generally ".. with a Romanian father."
Apparently Sean Lock is now a vampire with an opinion:
and there's a huge scandal here in the UK about comments on GMTV, which we have all missed. "Ray wrote on Twitter: “If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a builder / supplier / waitress, etc. you are Romanian ”. Type of piece the BBC publishes on it's website - one person, who is a friend of our writer, said...
And Boris Becker compares ER to Muhammad Ali. Why does BB look like a teazle?
And SeanT has some competition from a cucumber. Love the "it costs as much as a used car". Apparently health benefits, so some of our PB druggies may be interested.
The civilisational turn in the European project complicates the story of Brexit we have told ourselves. Leavers have often been portrayed as yearning for a white Britain before mass immigration began in the 1950s. But the reality is more complex. For example, one-third of Britain’s black and Asian population voted to leave in 2016. As political scientist Neema Begum has shown, many did so because they saw the EU as a “white fortress” – and even those who voted to remain tended not to identify as European. Continental Europe generally lags behind the UK in terms of racial equality – for example, Brexit dramatically reduced the number of MEPs from ethnic minorities in the European parliament. (There are no exact figures because member states such as France and Germany do not collect ethnic data.)
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
Quite a few on here could learn from that very interesting piece
Extended the boundaries of my thoughts somewhat, to be fair. I've always had a hazy concept of the 'Europe' I wanted as a sort of Holy Roman Empire plus later Christianised parts, and the article caused me, as the saying goes, 'furiously to think'!
This is a key part of most serious analysis of the GDP cost of Brexit. Goods and services will become more expensive due to new trade barriers and a less efficient market, but without a corresponding increase in incomes. This is expected to result in about a 3% to 4% decrease in relative GDP on purchasing parity, as I recall.
Where is that mentioned / covered in the report.
The report covers up to 2018 and the additional paperwork only arrived this year.
I am saying it's the other side of the same coin. Additional costs have to be paid for. This is extrq to not selling so much abroad and therefore receiving less income. Which is the other part of the relative decline in GDP due to Brexit.
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both a) false b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
The paper assets that Brexit (the vote) caused inflation, yes.
This was a net loss to consumers, and not does it seem to have improved the balance of payment deficit. So I’m saying, worse.
It asserts that its caused inflation, but there's been no inflation problem.
So presumably you think we'd have frequently had deflation in recent years instead? Deflation is worse than having 0.4% inflation.
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.
But she's clearly not Romanian. She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here. Romanian doesn't come into it. My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
Being born somewhere and having parents from somewhere are two different things.
I think that your pedant would have some validity saying she was Canadian naturalised British.
I think it is clear that she is as British as Prince Philip.
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....So much so that the two words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
The problem is, as we see on here, the cognitive dissonance for Brexiters is incredibly strong.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both a) false b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
The Bank of England has had to write six times to explain why inflation is too low in recent years and you're claiming that Brexit has caused inflation.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
The paper assets that Brexit (the vote) caused inflation, yes.
This was a net loss to consumers, and not does it seem to have improved the balance of payment deficit. So I’m saying, worse.
It asserts that its caused inflation, but there's been no inflation problem.
So presumably you think we'd have frequently had deflation in recent years instead? Deflation is worse than having 0.4% inflation.
Again, your maths is faulty. A range of tutoring options are available if you need it.
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).
“Point out Emma Raducanu’s ethnic origins and suddenly you’re the dick because everyone else is proud of her being British and you’re doing the thing the racists do. But for the right reasons. But still."
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).
Fixated?
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
It is one of the mad elements of the benefits system when is becomes completely pointless to get a pay rise or work more hours.
I wonder how many of the 256 were oldies dying with but not from covid or finished off by covid a few weeks earlier than they would have been without it.
Roughly 1 in 5,000 people die every week.
We're currently getting about 250,000 positives a week.
If we were to simply pick 250,000 people at random from the population - let's say back in 2019 before covid was with us - 200 of those would die within the next four weeks.
A major caveat to the above is that positives aren't distributed at random throughout the population. Positives are very strongly clustered around those who will not 'die anyway' - i.e. the relatively young. Finger in the air estimate is that the true figure of 'die anyways' is about 20-40 rather than 200. But still.
Maths all off the top of my head - feel free to tell me where I went wrong!
But isn't the most likely place to catch covid a hospital ?
So a sick oldie might have a good chance of being infected.
One of the issues we have is that for some, no-one should die of Covid. I don't know any other disease or condition that this is the case for. I think too many people believe that if we just try really hard we can suppress Covid for good, They are wrong, and have been wrong since Jan 2020. It is now endemic.
I am heartened by the England cases trending down in recent days. I don't think many expected this in the week after the schools went back, especially after what was seen in Scotland. Perhaps Scotland conflated opening up more with the school return?
I wouldn't be surprised if cases stay around 30000 a day all winter wither the mixing but deaths gradually climb towards 500 per day in winter. The question is can people live with that
Why would the deaths climb? And have you missed the decline in England cases?
Of course our Emma is British. She speaks with the same posh southern English accent as all our tennis players do. Because they are the only type that the LTA promote.
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.
But she's clearly not Romanian. She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here. Romanian doesn't come into it. My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
If you were a world-leading hurler of stones, or a mediocre footballer, it makes you Scottish. Probably.
As long as you don't support the Union, in which case for some people you are unmentionable.
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
The Uk has several structural problems:
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure. 2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more 3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero. 4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment. 5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem. 6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here 7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
Excellent, excellent post.
Should be a thread header.
I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.
I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
its truss doing the power/bleeding piles stand. i shopped it in for bonus lols.
Of course our Emma is British. She speaks with the same posh southern English accent as all our tennis players do. Because they are the only type that the LTA promote.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Starmer got a lot of flak for his John Lewis wallpaper photo, perhaps justifiably. Compared with this one of Truss though.... He's an amateur.
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
I meant the big picture with her holding the phone upside down. That is supposed to be a joke, surely?
Don't think so. Chasing the can't-put-up-an-umbrella vote?
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.
Why is she wearing two watches?
Even two stopped watches give the right time four times a day.
Fitbit?
I thought that photo was of her doing the bees-knees in a musical or dance class. Perhaps about the Zoot Suit riots.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
its truss doing the power/bleeding piles stand. i shopped it in for bonus lols.
There you go. Fake news photo. Spotted it a mile away.
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).
Fixated?
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
Basically I'm finding it hilarious that I'm point out 3 different ways in which the conclusion is biased and wrong and yet you won't accept any of them.
And we are talking about Brexit costing 2.9% - if that's the true cost of Brexit, I suspect a lot of poorly paid people will regard it as a bargain.
Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.
The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.
It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has
Who to Trade?
Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.
Has she worked out to use a phone yet?
Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate. To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.
It is very tedious to see so many posts presenting Raducanu as some kind of tennis wunderkind whose achievements should be celebrated by all Britons.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
A tartar on the dog poo issue as well I hear.
Lol.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
Controversial view: the scoring in Tennis is akin to double-FPTP.
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
Perhaps her outfit was intended to highlight the inherent unfairness of the distribution of seats at the 1997 election under FPTP. Yes. I'm certain it was.
I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.
But she's clearly not Romanian. She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here. Romanian doesn't come into it. My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
Being born somewhere and having parents from somewhere are two different things.
I think that your pedant would have some validity saying she was Canadian naturalised British.
I think it is clear that she is as British as Prince Philip.
Lat's hope she doesn't have any far right relatives in Romania (not that that held Phil back).
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).
Fixated?
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
So they simultaneously underestimate and overestimate inflation? Ok.
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
The Uk has several structural problems:
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure. 2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more 3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero. 4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment. 5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem. 6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here 7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
Excellent, excellent post.
Should be a thread header.
I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.
I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.
I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).
Fixated?
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
So they simultaneously underestimate and overestimate inflation? Ok.
Where did I say that?
I'm starting to think you are either a windup merchant or have very poor reading comprehension skills.
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).
Fixated?
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
So they simultaneously underestimate and overestimate inflation? Ok.
Where did I say that?
I'm starting to think you are either a windup merchant or have very poor reading comprehension skills.
It is the implication of the “biases” you claim to have identified.
One of which seems to be based on your personal experience of purchasing power in 2016…
Edit: I see you have edited your last post and are now saying the inflation was “worth it” for low income earners.
Thus demonstrating my typology of Brexit excuses in response to any adverse outcome:
A - the outcome is not true. B - the outcome is someone/thing else’s fault. C - the outcome is actually good.
So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?
It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.
So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.
Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.
LOL.
You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?
I work in manufacturing.
So yes I have.
Of course you do.
Why would you doubt that ?
I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.
Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.
That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.
One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.
The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.
The Uk has several structural problems:
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure. 2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more 3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero. 4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment. 5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem. 6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here 7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
Excellent, excellent post.
Should be a thread header.
I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.
I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.
I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.
It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.
Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.
Comments
To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?
If you want an answer go and do some work yourself - as I suspect the rest sits in their use of inappropriate oil prices to reflect the market.
In fact from https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp
Key Differences
There has been a trend, due to advancements in oil drilling and fracking, of West Texas Intermediate becoming cheaper than Brent Crude oil.
So the reality is that report uses an inappropriate base for oil prices and that may be itself reflect the rest of the difference.
If you want to discuss this further may I suggest you find a justification for why they are using west texas crude when our internal oil price will be based on brent oil prices. That is probably more than enough to explain the difference between the 2.9% rate recorded in the report and the 2.5% inflation rate you are quoting without any reference
Quite interesting. I don't see how they can fight that - the peeps are working locally, contributing to the community, and if are there X days per year...
The Beeboids are over-bigging up the differences. Those 10 viewings and 9 offers type figures are exactly what I am seeing here in North Notts.
It shows the lunacy of p*ssing away £12-15bn (my est, based on 12bn from Stamp Duty in 19-20) on a Stamp Duty holiday in one year - that's about 40% of the money they estimate they needed to build HS2 to Yorkshire and the NE. Add in the money spaffed on extra HS2 holes in the ground and other things for Southern Nimbies, and we are nearly there.
She's just a lovely young woman who's just done fantastically well at tennis. Leave her alone.
But agree she is an absolute empty vessel.
(Though she was right about putting the NHS backlog costs on the deficit!).
I'm so excited.
PBers see politics in absolutely everything. They are highly atypical.
Also, a belief that Brexit helps the “wealth creators” immediately disqualifies you for management on intellectual grounds.
Mr. Eagles, please remember to wear appropriate garments (something that won't induce epileptic fits).
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158
It’s always more fun when it comes as a shock.
But again can you provide any evidence of that - for some people, restricted trade may generate them excess profits by allowing them to charge higher prices to the lack of alternatives.
Unkind suggestions were that we now know what the Trusster's straining with constipation face is.
On the continent, “pro-Europeans” believe they have something in common with other Europeans that separates them from the rest of the world – they think of Europe as what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft, or community of fate. Few remainers think in this way; many are genuine cosmopolitans. The problem is that they are often as ignorant of the reality of the EU as leavers are and support an imaginary EU rather than the real existing EU. In particular, many on the British left imagine the EU to be much more open and progressive than it really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/12/europes-fear-of-refugee-has-shattered-the-illusion-of-a-cosmopolitan-haven
As I have also mentioned on here before, a VR headset will give you all kinds of options of fitness which are more fun.
That might help to sort the suit sizes and the endorphins won't hurt either.
She is incredibly active in the Bromley Lib Dems and tennis is very much a side occupation to her main vocation which is reversing Brexit and rebalancing taxation from income to wealth.
I forgot about that.
Brexit is an absolute boon for inefficient protectionists.
There’s nary a pothole in Sidcup that she hasn’t been photographed pointing at.
This tennis business is merely a way to drum up attention for proportional representation.
https://twitter.com/jpa_f1/status/1437101697718005767
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-6984377/You-forward-no-one-says-Tory-MP-Liz-Truss.html
ETA can anyone explain what the Banksy of a British Rail lavatory actually is?
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036
The result is 2-0 in terms of sets, 6-4, 6-3, so 12-7 in terms of games, but the raw points tally, perhaps the PR equivalent, was 80-68, or 54% - 46%.
I expect you could find matches where the winner won fewer points/games overall, just as with FPTP elections.
The entire time post-referendum barring a single month the rate of inflation has been within or below target, very frequently below target. So if Brexit has caused 2.9% of that inflation then you must be implying we'd have had deflation in that period.
Deflation is not an improvement, or is that what you'd have wished for?
Casual listeners to news and current affairs programs are hearing a continuous tale of woe.....longest hospital waiting lists ever.....care home crisis...empty supermarket shelves. ....lack of trained staff .....public services at breaking point..... shortages.....highest tax rates since 1950's ..
....Followed invariably by the words .....PANDEMIC ..... BREXIT.....which are used as an explanation. So much so in fact that the words have become synonymous.
The effects are twofold. Firstly BREXIT becomes inextricably intertwined with a fatal disease and secondly whereas 'the pandemic' could be seen as a misfortune 'the pandemic /brexit' combo is seen as self inflicted.
We’ve experienced more that 2.9% inflation since 15/16.
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1437334452544344064
To make up the £20 people on universal credit are losing they don't need to work 2 hours to earn £20 they need to earn £67 which is near enough a full day if on minimum wage.
The tax rate on low earners is obscene in this country and the Government has just made it worse.
ETA and it looks as if she's been grudgingly given about 10% of the living room by the Man of the House to WFH in. But it's not funny enough to be actually funny.
They voted for it, hence all these problems are both
a) false
b) someone else’s fault
Philip T goes one further and adds
c) actually a good thing.
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.
I was pleased as punch when she was elected chairman of the Bromley Lib Dem social sub-committee.
Apparently she has ordered a charabanc to take some of the older members to Eastbourne during the half term break.
If inflation is too low, and Brexit caused inflation, then has Brexit made things better or worse?
The report covers up to 2018 and the additional paperwork only arrived this year.
1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.
The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.
BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.
In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.
It's funny, because most of the twatterati have played the "isn't multiculturalism/immigration wonderful?" card and, because of Brexit, have been keen to play up her Romanian identity. As you say, she is a Canadian immigrant if she is any kind of immigrant.
This was a net loss to consumers, and not does it seem to have improved the balance of payment deficit. So I’m saying, worse.
It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬
And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.
I think that your pedant would have some validity saying she was Canadian naturalised British.
Apparently Sean Lock is now a vampire with an opinion:
and there's a huge scandal here in the UK about comments on GMTV, which we have all missed.
"Ray wrote on Twitter: “If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a builder / supplier / waitress, etc. you are Romanian ”. Type of piece the BBC publishes on it's website - one person, who is a friend of our writer, said...
And Boris Becker compares ER to Muhammad Ali. Why does BB look like a teazle?
And SeanT has some competition from a cucumber. Love the "it costs as much as a used car". Apparently health benefits, so some of our PB druggies may be interested.
Best I can do in 5 minutes..
So presumably you think we'd have frequently had deflation in recent years instead? Deflation is worse than having 0.4% inflation.
A range of tutoring options are available if you need it.
“Point out Emma Raducanu’s ethnic origins and suddenly you’re the dick because everyone else is proud of her being British and you’re doing the thing the racists do. But for the right reasons. But still."
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/british-sporting-success-making-us-look-like-dicks-remainers-admit-20210913212016
Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.
As long as you don't support the Union, in which case for some people you are unmentionable.
Should be a thread header.
I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.
I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.
I thought that photo was of her doing the bees-knees in a musical or dance class. Perhaps about the Zoot Suit riots.
newsphoto. Spotted it a mile away.I rock.
The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.
My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.
Basically I'm finding it hilarious that I'm point out 3 different ways in which the conclusion is biased and wrong and yet you won't accept any of them.
And we are talking about Brexit costing 2.9% - if that's the true cost of Brexit, I suspect a lot of poorly paid people will regard it as a bargain.
Yes. I'm certain it was.
I'm starting to think you are either a windup merchant or have very poor reading comprehension skills.
One of which seems to be based on your personal experience of purchasing power in 2016…
Edit: I see you have edited your last post and are now saying the inflation was “worth it” for low income earners.
Thus demonstrating my typology of Brexit excuses in response to any adverse outcome:
A - the outcome is not true.
B - the outcome is someone/thing else’s fault.
C - the outcome is actually good.
Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.