As far as I can see the demand is for Raab to be sacked is for not making a phone call to a Country where people were prepared to get on a plane wheel to escape from. If only Raab had made the call then the scene at the airport would not have happened and the interpretors could have made their way to the Departure Lounge, bought a bit of Duty Free and boarded their flight.
It might have made not one iota of difference, but then he is the Foreign Sec after all so maybe he should have done it don't you think? The rest of world thinks this is a humanitarian disaster so the person whose job description is to act in such circumstances didn't. But I guess that is ok in your eyes.
What difference do you think a phonecall to a a Government that had collapsed and fleeing would have made?
I want politicians to do something that has a point like organising for British troops to go to the airport and defend it to enable British planes to land to evacuate people, which is exactly what the politicians did.
a) I said it may make no difference. The key word here is 'may'
b) How the hell do you know what difference it would have made. It might have been critical. You have no idea what was happening.
c) Politicians make decisions and need to talk to people to make those decisions. They do not organise the logistics. I don't know why you think they do that.
The Taliban were in the Government Building by Monday night. Do you think that the person who you think Raab should have spoken to would have thought hey although I have no power and can't do anything and the Taliban are coming to kill me I am going to stay at my desk and make arrangements for 100s of interpreters to access the airport and be at the front of the queue of the hoards holding on to plane wheels trying to escape.
You have not the foggiest idea what was happening, just like none of us do. And from your earlier post today, and previous posts made, you come to some spectacular ill founded conclusions on no evidence at all. For instance you seem to think politicians organise the logistics of an evacuation. What? Just recalling today you think Foxy is one of the richest people who post to this site. He maybe but based upon what? I can see no evidence whatsoever for that statement of 'fact'. That is just today. Previously you have rattled off stats on mask wearing that people with knowledge of maths have told you is just nonsense and yet you keep doing it.
Your posts are some of the most ill informed on this site.
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Cases per 100k during pandemic:
Cornwall 5,235 South-West 6,793 England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Isn't much of it Boardmasters festival related and mostly 15-19 year olds?
Why is it risible to post the change in odds of a political event on a political betting site. He is doing what it says on the can. Just bizarre.
Doesnt mention what its changed from. How does anyone know if it has changed?
Why would you assume he is lying, in particular for no good reason. People who are interested know if this is useful or not. You really do have a bee in your bonnet about several types of posts on this site. Just go elsewhere if you are not happy.
If you dont like the way I post, there are other sites...
The key phrase there is that this rapid capitulation was just a possible scenario, not the most plausible scenario.
So the CIA was painting a prettier picture than the likely reality.
More that as the scenarios filtered up the system, the undesirable ones are shuffled to the bottom of the pile.
The use of best-medium-worst case methodology to cover people in a hierarchy from blame is an interesting phenomenon. You can say that "I did say", while at the same time not offend the senior people by giving them a report they don't want to read.
Giving the people at the top information they don't want to have seen, is often considered the most offensive thing you can do. Short of their-wife-on-board-room-table scenarios.
The recruitment and promotion processes in our society are biased against pessimists, so people inclined to ponder the worst-case scenario don't make it high up the hierarchy, and avoidable disasters become experienced disasters.
Boris Johnson is the living embodiment of this problem - but I am still confident that his jovial optimism will see him safely home at the next general election.
Very early in my career I was asked a question by someone very very senior. So I told him the truth.
My boss sat me down to explain what I had done - by telling the Big Boss the truth, in front of people, was a tremendous slap in the face for him. Because the Big Boss couldn't go against the consensus of his peers. But now, since he Knew, he could be blamed when things went wrong. Unless he started insulting everyone by telling them what he had been told.
The real problem is that people presenting data that contradicts The Policy are considered to be the problem. See Herman Kahn etc..
I make a joke of "management-speak bullshit" when I come out with it. But I only quote the ones that work. And owning a problem is absolutely there. Had a senior exec when I was a junior spod at Nestle explain how to deal with a problem. His advice was to own it. "Here is the issue, here are our options, here is how I'd fix it" - doubly so if you created the issue.
Yes, if you have a prannock at the top who doesn't want the truth then it may be Bad. I've departed a couple of businesses with a sack of cash when the truth was too uncomfortable for the prannock. Both times I have proven to be right and them wrong. So whatever, their loss.
The joy of taking a "the number is the number" approach is that when the shit hits the fan you can point out that you called it truthfully all the way through. Making stuff up to cover someone else's mess just creates a web of lies that grows legs and takes over. And the problem you called sits there getting worse.
That's fine for a business, as far as it goes. But what "here's how I'd fix it" options were available to those who were inclined to tell their superiors the truth about Afghanistan ?
Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit?
Trump signed a deal to totally withdraw from Afghanistan and hand control to the Taliban in exchange for not being shot at on departure. Biden delays from 1st May and then prannocks like HYUFD try to blame Biden for the Taliban having control.
What could have been done? The deal is to hand Afghanistan to the Taliban. So as NATO troops withdraw back towards Kabul manage the perimeter, bring people out with them, do it gradually as Biden was.
What has gone wrong is that the permiter was being largely managed by their expensive Afghan army colleagues who have seen the writing on the wall and switched sides. So the "here's how I'd fix it" would be to maintain sufficient NATO forces as to now let that happen. Or at the very least as the collapse to the Taliban starts to accelerate recognise that you need a big fuck off airlift and that means flying in your own forces to manage it.
Trump’s deal was dreadful. But Biden’s admin got a billion things wrong, which has made it much worse
Just one was this shameful scuttling out of Bagram air base, which would, by the by, be extremely useful now in the evacuation
‘Afghan anger over US’s sudden, silent Bagram departure Military officials say troops turned off power and slipped away without notifying new commander’
This is not the behaviour of a global policeman. The USA is cutting and running. It is in headlong retreat
As a poster pointed out yesterday, the US is slammed for being a global policeman and for not being a global policeman.
As it should be, if the US ceases to be a global policeman then China and Russia will fill the gap.
If it was not for US intervention in WW2 most of western Europe would still be under Nazi rule and much of the Far East still under Japanese control.
The US ended up not being given a choice on that, what with Pearl Harbour and Germany declaring war on them.
It also took 9/11 to get the US to intervene in Afghanistan against the Taliban and Al Qaeda and to enable Bush to move to interventionism.
The US is not a natural global policeman, much of its population is isolationist, if it now retreats back into itself for the next decade or two then the main beneficiaries will be Xi and Putin
As far as I can see the demand is for Raab to be sacked is for not making a phone call to a Country where people were prepared to get on a plane wheel to escape from. If only Raab had made the call then the scene at the airport would not have happened and the interpretors could have made their way to the Departure Lounge, bought a bit of Duty Free and boarded their flight.
It might have made not one iota of difference, but then he is the Foreign Sec after all so maybe he should have done it don't you think? The rest of world thinks this is a humanitarian disaster so the person whose job description is to act in such circumstances didn't. But I guess that is ok in your eyes.
What difference do you think a phonecall to a a Government that had collapsed and fleeing would have made?
I want politicians to do something that has a point like organising for British troops to go to the airport and defend it to enable British planes to land to evacuate people, which is exactly what the politicians did.
a) I said it may make no difference. The key word here is 'may'
b) How the hell do you know what difference it would have made. It might have been critical. You have no idea what was happening.
c) Politicians make decisions and need to talk to people to make those decisions. They do not organise the logistics. I don't know why you think they do that.
The Taliban were in the Government Building by Monday night. Do you think that the person who you think Raab should have spoken to would have thought hey although I have no power and can't do anything and the Taliban are coming to kill me I am going to stay at my desk and make arrangements for 100s of interpreters to access the airport and be at the front of the queue of the hoards holding on to plane wheels trying to escape.
You have not the foggiest idea what was happening, just like none of us do. And from your earlier post today, and previous posts made, you come to some spectacular ill founded conclusions on no evidence at all. For instance you seem to think politicians organise the logistics of an evacuation. What? Just recalling today you think Foxy is one of the richest people who post to this site. He maybe but based upon what? I can see no evidence whatsoever for that statement of 'fact'. That is just today. Previously you have rattled off stats on mask wearing that people with knowledge of maths have told you is just nonsense and yet you keep doing it.
Your posts are some of the most ill informed on this site.
Thanks
Sorry to offend but it frustrates me. I am normally very polite, but really. As I posted on this theme to someone else about your posts it drives me to irrational thoughts in the opposite direction and then tend not to give Raab any benefit of the doubt. You do him no favours.
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
Same down here in my south coast holiday city. Virtually every restaurant and café has a notice in the window asking for staff. My daughter, a chef, has just secured a job paying £500 per shift (12 hours). This is untold riches for her - I think her previous highest was £200 per shift. This must have an effect on consumer prices, surely.
The idea that this phone call to an Aghan government totally focused on finding the first plane out, ideally with some loot, would have made any difference whatsoever is risible.
That's the part that makes it easier for the shitmunchers to understand. Whichever you look at it he was the Foreign Secretary and there was a major foreign policy crisis. His holiday gets sacked off. Hard fucking luck, goes with the job. If he doesn't want that level of responsibility he should go and manage a branch of Carphone Warehouse. A position to which his abilities are probably better suited.
Plenty of people in the services have had holidays and other events ruined at minimal notice for far less pressing matters...
Do folk in the services actually respect the politicians who control them? Maybe in the old days, but I find it very hard to believe that in the age of social media there are any officers or sailors/soldiers/aircrew who respect Raab and Johnson. HMQ maybe, but not the Cabinet. That must be a problem surely? How do they keep motivated and risk their lives and health when they know those in charge to be idiots, buffoons, cads, bounders, liars and sneeks who give government contracts to their pals? And pay women cash to keep their gobs shut?
For most squaddies most figures of authority are regarded with deep suspicion and disdain.
And as for motivation, they are not doing it for the politicians they are doing it for their mates/unit, which is a strongly inculcated culture in HMF.
As someone or other once said: "I didn't join the British Army I joined the 10th Hussars."
I find it hard to give a damn about Raab either way, and I suspect 80% of Britain feels the same. This is an SW1 bubble story confected by bored or biased media. There are so many bigger things going on
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
And on would you support an increase in energy bills to fund more renewable energy and lower carbon emissions
Support 30%
Oppose 52%
D/K 18%
Given the news is regularly full of stuff about the evils of climate change ad it regularly crops up on magazine shows and breakfast TV as an issue I am amazed this is not the other way.
Shows there is little mileage in pushing a green agenda if it means higher energy bills, carbon taxes, higher fuel bills and congestion charge zones outside of wealthy metropolitan areas.
We do still new to continue the push to renewables however and we are doing relatively well on that
Some of us are.
'Scotland has narrowly missed a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of its electricity demand from renewables in 2020. New figures reveal it reached 97.4% from renewable sources.'
'Renewables provided a record 43% of the UK’s electricity last year, up from 37% in 2019, according to UK Government statistics.'
Scotland is part of the UK and contributes to that above average UK figure
And stiffed for the privilege, win-win, or lose-lose as it's known north of Carlisle.
"Scotland" pays nothing. SSEN pay more because they produce excess capacity for the local circuit & therefore make more use of the UK Transmission network. Aim is to have generation close to consumption. System is being reviewed in light of remoteness of most renewable sources
I find it hard to give a damn about Raab either way, and I suspect 80% of Britain feels the same. This is an SW1 bubble story confected by bored or biased media. There are so many bigger things going on
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
Why is it risible to post the change in odds of a political event on a political betting site. He is doing what it says on the can. Just bizarre.
Doesnt mention what its changed from. How does anyone know if it has changed?
Why would you assume he is lying, in particular for no good reason. People who are interested know if this is useful or not. You really do have a bee in your bonnet about several types of posts on this site. Just go elsewhere if you are not happy.
If you dont like the way I post, there are other sites...
So this not-a-coalition coalition between SNP and the Scottish Greens, the write up on the BBC seems to suggest its basically a coalition but the Greens dont have to support some specific policies and can still criticise the government.
Is the little bit of extra stability worth the SNP giving them that latitude, above more regular minority gov or confidence and supply arrangements? It seems pretty generous.
I find it hard to give a damn about Raab either way, and I suspect 80% of Britain feels the same. This is an SW1 bubble story confected by bored or biased media. There are so many bigger things going on
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
Why is it risible to post the change in odds of a political event on a political betting site. He is doing what it says on the can. Just bizarre.
Doesnt mention what its changed from. How does anyone know if it has changed?
Why would you assume he is lying, in particular for no good reason. People who are interested know if this is useful or not. You really do have a bee in your bonnet about several types of posts on this site. Just go elsewhere if you are not happy.
If you dont like the way I post, there are other sites...
Not very rational. You see I like the way (almost) everyone posts even if I disagree (you know politics and betting). It is you that has the problem with lots of others post, you know on politics and betting.
I just don't know why you want to stay if you don't want people to post things about politicians and betting, it seems weird. Up to you though obviously.
Johnson’s misfortune is that the music stopped on his watch, and he had prepared no other song to play in its place. That’s why yesterday was a key test for the PM, to enunciate Britain’s new place in the world now that the US has walked off the pitch. To step up and offer a lead to our other allies who are also now adrift amid the West’s crisis of self-doubt.
Someone must, and that moral responsibility now falls on Britain, as Nato’s second biggest contributor, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and with Johnson the current chair of the G7.
But it was a test Britain’s PM failed, and to his own MPs’ palpable fury. “He was nothing. No substance, no understanding,” pronounced one disappointed senior Tory in the chamber yesterday.
For Afghanistan it is too late. That ship has sailed, as anyone who cares about that country and has spent time there like me must now painfully accept.
But for Johnson it is not yet too late. In an ever more precarious world, the next international disaster is not far away. It will come in Somalia, Mozambique or Nigeria, which are all under the growing threat of Islamist takeover. Or in Taiwan, which Xi Jinping’s China is eyeing up. Or in one of the Baltic states, which fear a Russian incursion like Ukraine’s. Or with Iran and it’s hardliners’ takeover.
Johnson needs to learn how to lead on the international stage, and fast. Before the next Afghanistan erupts and reveals Britain has no foreign policy left at all.
More save the world fantasising.
How much blood and money does the Standard think the UK's middle classes are willing to pay ?
I agree it's mostly fantasy - "let me think of all the stuff that could go wrong" with a nebulous demand to "lead". Obviously crises will occur from time to time, but none of Taiwan, Baltic States, Mozambique or Nigeria are under imminent existential threat, and Somalia's plight has been ongoing for a long time but it's not suddenly got much more critical. We absolutely shouldn't be sending troops to any of them. Or what else does "lead" mean? Make a concerned speech?
If he reversed the foreign aid cuts that would at least be useful. And much cheaper than another military commitment.
I'm a general supporter of foreign aid, and think the 0.7% target is sensible. However it becomes a classic conservative question of whether the money is being spent well. The fact the ex-Afghan president fled with $169 million indicates that, all too often, money is diverted before it gets to the people who would benefit most from it.
It's also massively complex. Whilst not directly foreign aid, as a child, Mrs J was a massive user of the British Council library in Ankara. She had spent a few years in the UK before this, but toned her language skills in the library (reading books she admits were (ahem) adult for her age). She is therefore very much for funding the British Council.
However, she was very middle class, and therefore had easy access to the library. Does funding things like that actually help the people in foreign countries who need it the most? And does throwing millions at top-heavy 'charities' working abroad the most efficient way of helping people, and of promoting our country?
Re foreign aid I was listening to a report this morning from Haiti (which seems to have been a little forgotten with the afghan situation) and the reporter was saying how at the airport in the region worst struck by the earthquake and storm that there was one cargo plane and one helicopter and effectively no relief supplies coming in.
He explained this was down to two main factors, firstly that the Haiti govt is in flux after the assassination and secondly that nobody in Haiti wants Oxfam and others in their sight after various terrible scandals.
It made me wonder (and might be my second stupid unthought out comment in last 24 hours) whether there was any sense in hiving off a chunk of the annual aid budget and setting up a British “peace corps” / emergency team that’s permanently available and resources to deal with global disasters. My idea was that it would be set up on military lines with lines of command and control and its own assets such as transport planes, ships etc. Direct access to govt departments as well.
I would hope it would attract a large number of people who maybe thought of joining the services but didn’t fancy the shooting bit but could be paid full time, sent of on “tours” and emergency reactions and interventions of a civil kind.
It would hopefully replace the likes of oxfam and provide focussed and speedy aid where needed.
It would surely be better for the world to have such an organisation than filling the pockets/helicopters of corrupt leaders and charities that pay more than they dish out.
I recall a suggestion that, given one of the most effective pieces of first response disaster relief was often an American Carrier Group turning up to create an instant airfield/helicopter lift/water and food supply/Engineer teams etc, that the foreign aid budget should be "billable" by the UK military for similar stuff.
I know 5 people who all have PTSD from the UK's last first response relief project like that - all of them are now divorced and are towards the none functioning side of things.
So great idea but your typical sailor would need way better training.
Given that the military are often doing disaster relief at the moment - sounds like exteremely poor selection/support/training for people in question.
What I was recalling was the suggestion that the UK military involvement in disaster relief be formalised and recognised in budgeting.
It's a ship - ships have a habit of taking a long time to get to places (at 15 knots a day, it takes a while to travel 2,000 miles) and you only have the people already on board available unless you yank people from holiday.
So it looks like a great idea and then you start looking at logistics and it all falls apart rapidly.
What do the Americans do to make it work - or are they creating a similar problem?
You can pick an area of the world and work from there but I suspect you would need 3-4 task forces to be in a position to rapidly respond in the correct places.
I don't think that creating a world covering disaster relief system was what people had in mind - just that the usage of military people/equipment for such things should be budgeted against the international relief budget. Rather than be squeezed out of the military budget.
In which case we reduce our military budget below what NATO expects so would need to spend more on the military to ensure we met those rules.
And as both DuraAce and myself have pointed out you don't want your typical sailor doing the work as they won't really help the locals and may end up traumatised by it
The spending would be additional - rather than inventing space in the existing MOD budget. Which is what currently happens. Or the government transfers some extra money (never enough) from Emergency funds elsewhere.
What I am talking about is the logistical stuff that the Americans often turn up and do - provide helicopters, water and food etc. Which the UK military does already. Not trying to turn the RN into Unicef.
I find it hard to give a damn about Raab either way, and I suspect 80% of Britain feels the same. This is an SW1 bubble story confected by bored or biased media. There are so many bigger things going on
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
Just got mine. Thorough it was not.
They are very casual. A gesture, really
They can't have thousands of tourists banged up in quarantine hotels. Who would come back if there was a real risk.
The planet needs to sort out its approach to leisure travel. This one isn't particularly working. Or it is but in the breach not the adherence.
How many people I wonder will actually take their Day 2 tests?
I find it hard to give a damn about Raab either way, and I suspect 80% of Britain feels the same. This is an SW1 bubble story confected by bored or biased media. There are so many bigger things going on
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
Enjoy. Last time I was dining under the Acropolis was with a work colleague, who I discovered after a few drinks was a remarkably unforgiving Christian. All other faiths doomed to the fiery pits of hell.
I find it hard to give a damn about Raab either way, and I suspect 80% of Britain feels the same. This is an SW1 bubble story confected by bored or biased media. There are so many bigger things going on
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
I think people care about our country's reputation and if the Foreign Sec can't be arsed to help, people do not take kindly to that.
Quite frankly, if he given half the energy to his job as he has directed to saving his skin he wouldn't be in this mess.
Oh, and we have agreed the deal to develop a writing project of mine as animation. Whether as TV or cinema is still under consideration. Will keep you posted....
And on would you support an increase in energy bills to fund more renewable energy and lower carbon emissions
Support 30%
Oppose 52%
D/K 18%
Given the news is regularly full of stuff about the evils of climate change ad it regularly crops up on magazine shows and breakfast TV as an issue I am amazed this is not the other way.
Shows there is little mileage in pushing a green agenda if it means higher energy bills, carbon taxes, higher fuel bills and congestion charge zones outside of wealthy metropolitan areas.
We do still new to continue the push to renewables however and we are doing relatively well on that
Some of us are.
'Scotland has narrowly missed a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of its electricity demand from renewables in 2020. New figures reveal it reached 97.4% from renewable sources.'
'Renewables provided a record 43% of the UK’s electricity last year, up from 37% in 2019, according to UK Government statistics.'
Scotland is part of the UK and contributes to that above average UK figure
And stiffed for the privilege, win-win, or lose-lose as it's known north of Carlisle.
"Scotland" pays nothing. SSEN pay more because they produce excess capacity for the local circuit & therefore make more use of the UK Transmission network. Aim is to have generation close to consumption. System is being reviewed in light of remoteness of most renewable sources
Mind you, when you're independent you won't have to worry about transmission charges....
Cool, Scotland fulfilling all its own needs with renewables sounds good. Wangland meanwhile will have to up its consumption from..er..less remote Norway and Denmark.
Liking the 'when' not 'if' Scotland is independent btw, at least your subconscious is getting with the programme.
Why is it risible to post the change in odds of a political event on a political betting site. He is doing what it says on the can. Just bizarre.
Doesnt mention what its changed from. How does anyone know if it has changed?
Why would you assume he is lying, in particular for no good reason. People who are interested know if this is useful or not. You really do have a bee in your bonnet about several types of posts on this site. Just go elsewhere if you are not happy.
If you dont like the way I post, there are other sites...
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
People always exist at the right rate of pay. North sea oil rigs didn't have a population bobbing up and down on a rowing boat waiting to be hired once the rig exists, but the pay attracts the people from all over the world. Nor was there a huge unemployed population in walking distance from Shoe Lane hoping for a financial services outfit called Goldman Sachs to turn up.
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
It is, unfortunately, not surprising given half the country and their dogs have gone to Cornwall on their holidays this year. We do have to try and get away from using cases to determine policy but it is difficult given how ingrained we have been in the last 18 months.
I still think that we need to crack on giving the oldies booster jabs. I think it would also be useful, but less of a priority, to jab the 12-15yos to help reduce transmission.
Hmm. Eldest Granddaughter and her Significant Other, plus his parents have just gone there. Newquay, I think! However, all double vaccinated.
And on would you support an increase in energy bills to fund more renewable energy and lower carbon emissions
Support 30%
Oppose 52%
D/K 18%
Given the news is regularly full of stuff about the evils of climate change ad it regularly crops up on magazine shows and breakfast TV as an issue I am amazed this is not the other way.
Shows there is little mileage in pushing a green agenda if it means higher energy bills, carbon taxes, higher fuel bills and congestion charge zones outside of wealthy metropolitan areas.
We do still new to continue the push to renewables however and we are doing relatively well on that
Some of us are.
'Scotland has narrowly missed a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of its electricity demand from renewables in 2020. New figures reveal it reached 97.4% from renewable sources.'
'Renewables provided a record 43% of the UK’s electricity last year, up from 37% in 2019, according to UK Government statistics.'
Strip out Scotland and the England-only figure is even worse.
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
People always exist at the right rate of pay. North sea oil rigs don't have a population bobbing up and down on a rowing boat waiting to be hired once the rig exists, but the pay attracts the people from all over the world. Nor was there a huge unemployed population in walking distance from Shoe Lane hoping for a financial services outfit called Goldman Sachs to turn up.
Exactly. It's like when people ponder how conducive to poppy growing Afghan's climate and terroir is. Overlooking the fact that it is more the governance that is the deciding factor.
As for your point it would mean inflationary pressures build which, according to many on here, is a good thing but I'm not so sure
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Cases per 100k during pandemic:
Cornwall 5,235 South-West 6,793 England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
I’m double jabbed and currently have COVID. It is currently like a bad cold.
And on would you support an increase in energy bills to fund more renewable energy and lower carbon emissions
Support 30%
Oppose 52%
D/K 18%
Given the news is regularly full of stuff about the evils of climate change ad it regularly crops up on magazine shows and breakfast TV as an issue I am amazed this is not the other way.
Shows there is little mileage in pushing a green agenda if it means higher energy bills, carbon taxes, higher fuel bills and congestion charge zones outside of wealthy metropolitan areas.
We do still new to continue the push to renewables however and we are doing relatively well on that
Some of us are.
'Scotland has narrowly missed a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of its electricity demand from renewables in 2020. New figures reveal it reached 97.4% from renewable sources.'
'Renewables provided a record 43% of the UK’s electricity last year, up from 37% in 2019, according to UK Government statistics.'
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Cases per 100k during pandemic:
Cornwall 5,235 South-West 6,793 England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
I’m double jabbed and currently have COVID. It is currently like a bad cold.
Glad to hear it's not too bad hope the missus is ok too.
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
People always exist at the right rate of pay. North sea oil rigs didn't have a population bobbing up and down on a rowing boat waiting to be hired once the rig exists, but the pay attracts the people from all over the world. Nor was there a huge unemployed population in walking distance from Shoe Lane hoping for a financial services outfit called Goldman Sachs to turn up.
They turn up eventually, sure. But not immediately, and not necessarily with the right skills.
AstraZeneca will move to seek regulatory approval of its antibody cocktail after a study showed the drug significantly reduced the risk of developing symptomatic Covid-19
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
It could be 100% SNP and Green it would not make any difference as the UK government has the final say on the Union under the Scotland Act 1998 and this Tory government will refuse indyref2. Unless there is a Labour led government reliant on SNP support after the next general election you will not get indyref2.
The last actual independence poll of course was 47% No and only 44% Yes
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
Same down here in my south coast holiday city. Virtually every restaurant and café has a notice in the window asking for staff. My daughter, a chef, has just secured a job paying £500 per shift (12 hours). This is untold riches for her - I think her previous highest was £200 per shift. This must have an effect on consumer prices, surely.
Younger Grandson has just visited (with his mother) the university in the city where he will be from September onwards, went into a cafe/restaurant and in the course of discussion told them he was currently a waiter in a similar establishment, and had just been promoted. They offered him part-time work immediately. In a University City! Surely they'll have folk queueing up for such work.
AstraZeneca will move to seek regulatory approval of its antibody cocktail after a study showed the drug significantly reduced the risk of developing symptomatic Covid-19
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
People always exist at the right rate of pay. North sea oil rigs didn't have a population bobbing up and down on a rowing boat waiting to be hired once the rig exists, but the pay attracts the people from all over the world. Nor was there a huge unemployed population in walking distance from Shoe Lane hoping for a financial services outfit called Goldman Sachs to turn up.
They turn up eventually, sure. But not immediately, and not necessarily with the right skills.
Talking of oil rigs our nephew was one of the 167 killed on the Pipa Alfa disaster in 1988
I find it hard to give a damn about Raab either way, and I suspect 80% of Britain feels the same. This is an SW1 bubble story confected by bored or biased media. There are so many bigger things going on
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
Enjoy. Last time I was dining under the Acropolis was with a work colleague, who I discovered after a few drinks was a remarkably unforgiving Christian. All other faiths doomed to the fiery pits of hell.
Didn't do much for my digestion....
I've met a few like that. In most cases they genuinely believe it but have so much fear of offending anyone or being impolite that they have to be pushed quite hard to admit it. I think it is because doing so would conflict with some of their other Christian values. I wish some others could learn from it.
SINGAPORE — The arrival of the Chinese vaccines was supposed to help stop the spread of the coronavirus in Southeast Asia.
Instead, countries across the region are quickly turning elsewhere to look for shots.
Residents in Thailand vaccinated with one dose of China’s Sinovac are now given the AstraZeneca shot three to four weeks later. In Indonesia, officials are administering the Moderna vaccine as a booster to health care workers who had received two doses of Sinovac.
Malaysia’s health minister said the country would stop using Sinovac once its supply ran out. Even Cambodia, one of China’s strongest allies, has started using AstraZeneca as a booster for its frontline workers who had taken the Chinese vaccines.
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
And you will still lose indyref2
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
Maybe. Maybe not.
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
Possibly he is a scaredy cat and no wonder. The defining moment of his political career was Cameron's career-ending Brexit referendum misjudgement. All else follows from that. No way BoJo will repeat that mistake, whatever other mistakes he may make. Simples.
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
And you will still lose indyref2
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
Maybe. Maybe not.
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
I think most people? Whatever one thinks of Gove (and I think he is a bit of a King Cnut), he is actually competent. Johnson is a hopeless case. Doesn't make him wrong on the "once in a generation vote" thing though. A lot of us that thought Brexit was a pointless and foolhardy policy have accepted the democratic vote. You nats should do the same. Oh, but hang on, the words "nationalist" and democracy don't really have a great history together do they?
SINGAPORE — The arrival of the Chinese vaccines was supposed to help stop the spread of the coronavirus in Southeast Asia.
Instead, countries across the region are quickly turning elsewhere to look for shots.
Residents in Thailand vaccinated with one dose of China’s Sinovac are now given the AstraZeneca shot three to four weeks later. In Indonesia, officials are administering the Moderna vaccine as a booster to health care workers who had received two doses of Sinovac.
Malaysia’s health minister said the country would stop using Sinovac once its supply ran out. Even Cambodia, one of China’s strongest allies, has started using AstraZeneca as a booster for its frontline workers who had taken the Chinese vaccines.
AIUI from my son, who lives in Thailand and needs, soon, to travel again to China, the Chinese authorities will only accept as vaccinated, those who have had one of the Chinese vaccines.
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
That would make for 63% in favour of Independence - which we know is currently way off. Possible explanations: 1. Single sub-samples taken in isolation are almost worthless. 2. A substantial proportion of SNP/Green voters are pro-Union.
Which explanation do you think is closer to the mark?
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
It could be 100% SNP and Green it would not make any difference as the UK government has the final say on the Union under the Scotland Act 1998 and this Tory government will refuse indyref2. Unless there is a Labour led government reliant on SNP support after the next general election you will not get indyref2.
The last actual independence poll of course was 47% No and only 44% Yes
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
And you will still lose indyref2
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
Maybe. Maybe not.
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
For all our disagreements I think we agree there is no certainty over indyref2 and to be honest I just do not see it is difficult for Boris or any PM to defer to post the 2024 election, as we still have covid and the huge costs to be mitigated before it is even sensible to consider independence
Indeed I understand most Scots are not in favour of an early referendum
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Cases per 100k during pandemic:
Cornwall 5,235 South-West 6,793 England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
Covid? No. Long Covid? Yes.
I Do Not want to catch Covid. However inconvenient my partial withdrawal from consumerism may be for the right wing.
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
Same down here in my south coast holiday city. Virtually every restaurant and café has a notice in the window asking for staff. My daughter, a chef, has just secured a job paying £500 per shift (12 hours). This is untold riches for her - I think her previous highest was £200 per shift. This must have an effect on consumer prices, surely.
Younger Grandson has just visited (with his mother) the university in the city where he will be from September onwards, went into a cafe/restaurant and in the course of discussion told them he was currently a waiter in a similar establishment, and had just been promoted. They offered him part-time work immediately. In a University City! Surely they'll have folk queueing up for such work.
Not yet as Students will only arrive in September. So all your Grandson has done is get in early.
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
It is, unfortunately, not surprising given half the country and their dogs have gone to Cornwall on their holidays this year. We do have to try and get away from using cases to determine policy but it is difficult given how ingrained we have been in the last 18 months.
I still think that we need to crack on giving the oldies booster jabs. I think it would also be useful, but less of a priority, to jab the 12-15yos to help reduce transmission.
Hmm. Eldest Granddaughter and her Significant Other, plus his parents have just gone there. Newquay, I think! However, all double vaccinated.
Newquay is an interesting place. About 20 years ago I had a friend who ran a surf lodge there (long since sold for housing development) and I had a number of fun stays there off-season. Stunning coastal scenery and beaches. However, there was a lot of depravation there as outside the season there were very few decent jobs. Hopefully it has improved since I was last there.
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
That would make for 63% in favour of Independence - which we know is currently way off. Possible explanations: 1. Single sub-samples taken in isolation are almost worthless. 2. A substantial proportion of SNP/Green voters are pro-Union.
Which explanation do you think is closer to the mark?
I seem to remember seeing a poll that indicated that a substantial proportion of Scottish Green supporters are not in favour of independence. Robin Harper, the former leader of the Scottish Greens, was warning fairly recently against the Green preoccupation with Indy. I think he has a point. They seem far more energised by that and trans issues then they do with the environment.
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
People always exist at the right rate of pay. North sea oil rigs didn't have a population bobbing up and down on a rowing boat waiting to be hired once the rig exists, but the pay attracts the people from all over the world. Nor was there a huge unemployed population in walking distance from Shoe Lane hoping for a financial services outfit called Goldman Sachs to turn up.
They turn up eventually, sure. But not immediately, and not necessarily with the right skills.
And there is a great difference between skilled finance and oil rig jobs and a minimum wage low skilled job.
For the past 15 years prior to Covid large parts of this country used Eastern Europe as a source of those workers but that isn't currently an option - which is why things are in the state they are in.
AstraZeneca will move to seek regulatory approval of its antibody cocktail after a study showed the drug significantly reduced the risk of developing symptomatic Covid-19
The idea that this phone call to an Aghan government totally focused on finding the first plane out, ideally with some loot, would have made any difference whatsoever is risible.
That's the part that makes it easier for the shitmunchers to understand. Whichever you look at it he was the Foreign Secretary and there was a major foreign policy crisis. His holiday gets sacked off. Hard fucking luck, goes with the job. If he doesn't want that level of responsibility he should go and manage a branch of Carphone Warehouse. A position to which his abilities are probably better suited.
Plenty of people in the services have had holidays and other events ruined at minimal notice for far less pressing matters...
Do folk in the services actually respect the politicians who control them? Maybe in the old days, but I find it very hard to believe that in the age of social media there are any officers or sailors/soldiers/aircrew who respect Raab and Johnson. HMQ maybe, but not the Cabinet. That must be a problem surely? How do they keep motivated and risk their lives and health when they know those in charge to be idiots, buffoons, cads, bounders, liars and sneeks who give government contracts to their pals? And pay women cash to keep their gobs shut?
For most squaddies most figures of authority are regarded with deep suspicion and disdain.
And as for motivation, they are not doing it for the politicians they are doing it for their mates/unit, which is a strongly inculcated culture in HMF.
As someone or other once said: "I didn't join the British Army I joined the 10th Hussars."
Somehow 5th Battalion The Rifles doesn’t have the same ring to it as the Hussars.
And on would you support an increase in energy bills to fund more renewable energy and lower carbon emissions
Support 30%
Oppose 52%
D/K 18%
Given the news is regularly full of stuff about the evils of climate change ad it regularly crops up on magazine shows and breakfast TV as an issue I am amazed this is not the other way.
Shows there is little mileage in pushing a green agenda if it means higher energy bills, carbon taxes, higher fuel bills and congestion charge zones outside of wealthy metropolitan areas.
We do still new to continue the push to renewables however and we are doing relatively well on that
Some of us are.
'Scotland has narrowly missed a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of its electricity demand from renewables in 2020. New figures reveal it reached 97.4% from renewable sources.'
'Renewables provided a record 43% of the UK’s electricity last year, up from 37% in 2019, according to UK Government statistics.'
Scotland is part of the UK and contributes to that above average UK figure
And stiffed for the privilege, win-win, or lose-lose as it's known north of Carlisle.
"Scotland" pays nothing. SSEN pay more because they produce excess capacity for the local circuit & therefore make more use of the UK Transmission network. Aim is to have generation close to consumption. System is being reviewed in light of remoteness of most renewable sources
Mind you, when you're independent you won't have to worry about transmission charges....
Transmission charges aren't an issue with natural gas. Prety sure that St Fergus would count as "remote", gas in a pipe more of a faff than power through a cable yet the "remoteness" of the main import terminal isn't seen as the same issue as renewable locations.
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
It is, unfortunately, not surprising given half the country and their dogs have gone to Cornwall on their holidays this year. We do have to try and get away from using cases to determine policy but it is difficult given how ingrained we have been in the last 18 months.
I still think that we need to crack on giving the oldies booster jabs. I think it would also be useful, but less of a priority, to jab the 12-15yos to help reduce transmission.
Hmm. Eldest Granddaughter and her Significant Other, plus his parents have just gone there. Newquay, I think! However, all double vaccinated.
Newquay is an interesting place. About 20 years ago I had a friend who ran a surf lodge there (long since sold for housing development) and I had a number of fun stays there off-season. Stunning coastal scenery and beaches. However, there was a lot of depravation there as outside the season there were very few decent jobs. Hopefully it has improved since I was last there.
I think that that applies to much of Mid- and Western Cornwall. The East, close to the Tamar valley, has more scope for agriculture. Brexit has done nothing good for the Cornish fishing industry, either.
Theoretical laws for Cabinet resignations: 1. General rule - Cabinet Ministers survive most calls to resign 2. Blair's law - if survival depends on a good Commons performance, they will perform well & survive 3. Campbell's law - a bad splash is survivable but not 3 days in a row 4. Brown's law - conspiracies among Cabinet Ministers are common but unreliable and bound to fail 5. Rule of 4 Backbenchers - if 4 sensible, named backbenchers from the Minister's own party (but not from an opposing bloc within that party) go on the record, resignation is likely 6. Focus is Deadly - no matter how bad something smells it can be survived unless media focus falls on an unanswerable single point of failure 7. Fallacy of Complexity - Ministers mistakenly believe complexity will protect them but resignation issues are usually complex & obscure
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
That would make for 63% in favour of Independence - which we know is currently way off. Possible explanations: 1. Single sub-samples taken in isolation are almost worthless. 2. A substantial proportion of SNP/Green voters are pro-Union.
Which explanation do you think is closer to the mark?
I seem to remember seeing a poll that indicated that a substantial proportion of Scottish Green supporters are not in favour of independence. Robin Harper, the former leader of the Scottish Greens, was warning fairly recently against the Green preoccupation with Indy. I think he has a point. They seem far more energised by that and trans issues then they do with the environment.
In the latest opinion poll on Scottish Independence 11% of those who said they voted SNP in the 2021 Holyrood constituency vote said that they would vote against Scottish Independence.
Pressure grows on UK foreign secretary over handling of Afghanistan crisis https://on.ft.com/37XOsGX
Strange that you did not comment on my post earlier this morning considering your repetitive posting on Raab
I commented yesterday on the tragedy of the 5 year old Afghan refugee child that had fallen from a hotel in Sheffield having just arrived from Afghanistan
Further details emerged today that the child died on the 18th August 4 days from arriving in the UK via the Foreign Office evacuation scheme for qualifying Afghans and that his father had worked at the British Embassy
It follows that this flight must have left around the Friday before the weekend collapse of the regime and therefore it appears the Foreign Office were already repatriating Afghans to the UK
This does not fit with the narrative that a phone call on the Saturday would have achieved anything as repatriation was already taking place
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
And you will still lose indyref2
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
Maybe. Maybe not.
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
I think most people? Whatever one thinks of Gove (and I think he is a bit of a King Cnut), he is actually competent. Johnson is a hopeless case. Doesn't make him wrong on the "once in a generation vote" thing though. A lot of us that thought Brexit was a pointless and foolhardy policy have accepted the democratic vote. You nats should do the same. Oh, but hang on, the words "nationalist" and democracy don't really have a great history together do they?
The winning 2014 vote was a campaign which promised to stay in the single market. A single throwaway remark from the former first minister doesn't matter a jot in comparison.
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Cases per 100k during pandemic:
Cornwall 5,235 South-West 6,793 England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
Covid? No. Long Covid? Yes.
I Do Not want to catch Covid. However inconvenient my partial withdrawal from consumerism may be for the right wing.
Why the hell did you need to bring right wing into that?
I am to the right of you but have absolutely no problem with people making their own decisions on how best to manage risk
The idea that this phone call to an Aghan government totally focused on finding the first plane out, ideally with some loot, would have made any difference whatsoever is risible.
That's the part that makes it easier for the shitmunchers to understand. Whichever you look at it he was the Foreign Secretary and there was a major foreign policy crisis. His holiday gets sacked off. Hard fucking luck, goes with the job. If he doesn't want that level of responsibility he should go and manage a branch of Carphone Warehouse. A position to which his abilities are probably better suited.
Plenty of people in the services have had holidays and other events ruined at minimal notice for far less pressing matters...
Do folk in the services actually respect the politicians who control them? Maybe in the old days, but I find it very hard to believe that in the age of social media there are any officers or sailors/soldiers/aircrew who respect Raab and Johnson. HMQ maybe, but not the Cabinet. That must be a problem surely? How do they keep motivated and risk their lives and health when they know those in charge to be idiots, buffoons, cads, bounders, liars and sneeks who give government contracts to their pals? And pay women cash to keep their gobs shut?
For most squaddies most figures of authority are regarded with deep suspicion and disdain.
And as for motivation, they are not doing it for the politicians they are doing it for their mates/unit, which is a strongly inculcated culture in HMF.
As someone or other once said: "I didn't join the British Army I joined the 10th Hussars."
Somehow 5th Battalion The Rifles doesn’t have the same ring to it as the Hussars.
There has been a lot of reorganisation but the members of that regiment will be drilled in the customs and history of 1LI.
This has been going over and over in my mind for days. Just think of all the attention in the 80s over Terry Waite, John McCarthy and Brian Keenan. Wikipedia tells me there were 104 Western hostages in Lebanon in total.
And here we are with perhaps 3k Brits, 15k Americans and an unknown number of others from other Western countries, their lives in the hands of a regime far more barbaric and unpredictable than Hezbollah.
Yokel tells that some security firms are advising clients to stay put for now. Stay put for what exactly? Personally I’d take my chances now than after 31 Aug when all bets are off to Taliban behaviour.
One gets the feeling that the media are under direction not to report just how dire this situation really is. The US system is different of course but I reckon the chances of the British government falling over this are not inconsiderable, especially if it’s true that Macron and Merkel largely got their people out ahead of time.
Increasingly, I see a Trump 2nd presidency looming.
Very depressing.
Hope I am wrong.
Too early to say and a lot of things could happen but I do think a GOP majority in both Houses is looking more nailed on for 2022 (Adam Laxalt announcing his Senate run in Nevada is a plus for the GOP and I think Sununu will run in NH). What that could mean is impeachment hearings against Biden for the way he handled the Afghanistan exit.
I can see Biden turning out to be right about Afghanistan but blamed by voters for leaving in such a mess and not recovering.
Biden might be able to avoid another terrorist attack on US soil.
However he will still have allowed the Taliban to return to Afghanistan on his watch
They never left it.
HY's ignorance is breathtaking.
The US and UK troops were mostly holed up in fortified compounds, with limited interaction with locals particularly in more remote and dangerous regions. And frequently fended off Taliban attacks - from fighters who weren't on day trips from abroad, or from IEDs planted by Afghans.
The ignorance is yours.
In 2017 only tiny patches of Afghanistan were in Taliban control, just 13 districts out of 421 and no major cities.
Absolutely. The Trump Doha deal has nothing whatsoever to do with it. If America had reelected Trump then the even faster withdrawal that he and the GOP have been demanding of Biden would have gone off without a hitch and the Taliban being handed back control would have no control.
I have said Romney, who opposed the withdrawal, would be a better President than both Trump and Biden, as indeed would Hillary Clinton who was also wary about withdrawal.
As it is though 58% of Republicans now oppose the Afghanistan withdrawal so the GOP is becoming more interventionist again at last....
I think that seriously misinterprets the poll. What it means is they think Biden was wrong, no more than that - I doubt more than a fraction of them are more interventionist / inclined to go back in again.
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Cases per 100k during pandemic:
Cornwall 5,235 South-West 6,793 England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
Covid? No. Long Covid? Yes.
I Do Not want to catch Covid. However inconvenient my partial withdrawal from consumerism may be for the right wing.
Well, no one is stopping you from doing what you think is necessary to not catch COVID.
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Tories gain a Council seat from the SNP. No evidence here of a huge Pro-Indy swing. The baseline is the 2017 council elections which took place a few weeks before the General Election when the SNP lost over 20 seats and knocked back Nicola's indyref plans.
Mid-Formartine (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative ~ 1480 (45.7%, +11.1) SNP ~ 1205 (37.2%, +11.4) Lib Dem ~ 412 (12.7%, +3.3) Green ~ 144 (4.4%, +4.4)
(Note: Candidates from 2017 not present had 30.1%)
My family in Cornwall is freaking out about the crazy rise in cases down there. Previously optimistic fam members are now predicting a bad 4th wave and maybe another lockdown
May St Piran preserve us
Cases per 100k during pandemic:
Cornwall 5,235 South-West 6,793 England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
Covid? No. Long Covid? Yes.
I Do Not want to catch Covid. However inconvenient my partial withdrawal from consumerism may be for the right wing.
Well, no one is stopping you from doing what you think is necessary to not catch COVID.
There will soon be a name for the long term psychological damage from over-caution resulting from an irrational fear of Covid.
There’s a world of difference politically if we fail to evacuate Afghan translators and support staff, and fail to evacuate British and Americans citizens. Hangs in the balance looks like.
Taliban chances of getting a bung for hostages are presumably at their greatest right now, when it can be done cash in hand by special forces on the ground, rather than diplomatically when it’s a global news event.
Armed Forces Minister James Heappey: ‘The air bridge could last two more days, five more days, ten more days,' he added, insisting that the armed forces are 'working hard to maximise capacity' on every flight while revealing 963 people were taken out of Kabul on British flights yesterday with 1,000 expected to be flown out today.
Meanwhile a Pentagon spokesman said the US has evacuated some 7,000 people since Sunday, bringing the total since July to 12,000 with a target of at least 22,000 - though aid groups had said 80,000 would need to be flown out to keep Biden's promise to provide sanctuary to all those who helped US forces.
The UK will not be able to evacuate everyone it has promised sanctuary to from Afghanistan and the air bridge to Kabul airport may remain open for just a few more days, the armed forces minister has admitted today.
The key phrase there is that this rapid capitulation was just a possible scenario, not the most plausible scenario.
So the CIA was painting a prettier picture than the likely reality.
More that as the scenarios filtered up the system, the undesirable ones are shuffled to the bottom of the pile.
The use of best-medium-worst case methodology to cover people in a hierarchy from blame is an interesting phenomenon. You can say that "I did say", while at the same time not offend the senior people by giving them a report they don't want to read.
Giving the people at the top information they don't want to have seen, is often considered the most offensive thing you can do. Short of their-wife-on-board-room-table scenarios.
The recruitment and promotion processes in our society are biased against pessimists, so people inclined to ponder the worst-case scenario don't make it high up the hierarchy, and avoidable disasters become experienced disasters.
Boris Johnson is the living embodiment of this problem - but I am still confident that his jovial optimism will see him safely home at the next general election.
Very early in my career I was asked a question by someone very very senior. So I told him the truth.
My boss sat me down to explain what I had done - by telling the Big Boss the truth, in front of people, was a tremendous slap in the face for him. Because the Big Boss couldn't go against the consensus of his peers. But now, since he Knew, he could be blamed when things went wrong. Unless he started insulting everyone by telling them what he had been told.
The real problem is that people presenting data that contradicts The Policy are considered to be the problem. See Herman Kahn etc..
I make a joke of "management-speak bullshit" when I come out with it. But I only quote the ones that work. And owning a problem is absolutely there. Had a senior exec when I was a junior spod at Nestle explain how to deal with a problem. His advice was to own it. "Here is the issue, here are our options, here is how I'd fix it" - doubly so if you created the issue.
Yes, if you have a prannock at the top who doesn't want the truth then it may be Bad. I've departed a couple of businesses with a sack of cash when the truth was too uncomfortable for the prannock. Both times I have proven to be right and them wrong. So whatever, their loss.
The joy of taking a "the number is the number" approach is that when the shit hits the fan you can point out that you called it truthfully all the way through. Making stuff up to cover someone else's mess just creates a web of lies that grows legs and takes over. And the problem you called sits there getting worse.
That's fine for a business, as far as it goes. But what "here's how I'd fix it" options were available to those who were inclined to tell their superiors the truth about Afghanistan ?
Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit?
Trump signed a deal to totally withdraw from Afghanistan and hand control to the Taliban in exchange for not being shot at on departure. Biden delays from 1st May and then prannocks like HYUFD try to blame Biden for the Taliban having control.
What could have been done? The deal is to hand Afghanistan to the Taliban. So as NATO troops withdraw back towards Kabul manage the perimeter, bring people out with them, do it gradually as Biden was.
What has gone wrong is that the permiter was being largely managed by their expensive Afghan army colleagues who have seen the writing on the wall and switched sides. So the "here's how I'd fix it" would be to maintain sufficient NATO forces as to now let that happen. Or at the very least as the collapse to the Taliban starts to accelerate recognise that you need a big fuck off airlift and that means flying in your own forces to manage it.
Trump’s deal was dreadful. But Biden’s admin got a billion things wrong, which has made it much worse
Just one was this shameful scuttling out of Bagram air base, which would, by the by, be extremely useful now in the evacuation
‘Afghan anger over US’s sudden, silent Bagram departure Military officials say troops turned off power and slipped away without notifying new commander’
This is not the behaviour of a global policeman. The USA is cutting and running. It is in headlong retreat
As a poster pointed out yesterday, the US is slammed for being a global policeman and for not being a global policeman.
I think it fairly clear that the US (and this goes for any likely future Republican administration) has gone a long way to abandoning its role as a global policeman.
That doesn't mean it won't remain a the world's most powerful military power - or that it will abandon alliances with fellow democracies - but it's probably going to avoid intervening anywhere which isn't in its clear interest.
This has been going over and over in my mind for days. Just think of all the attention in the 80s over Terry Waite, John McCarthy and Brian Keenan. Wikipedia tells me there were 104 Western hostages in Lebanon in total.
And here we are with perhaps 3k Brits, 15k Americans and an unknown number of others from other Western countries, their lives in the hands of a regime far more barbaric and unpredictable than Hezbollah.
Yokel tells that some security firms are advising clients to stay put for now. Stay put for what exactly? Personally I’d take my chances now than after 31 Aug when all bets are off to Taliban behaviour.
One gets the feeling that the media are under direction not to report just how dire this situation really is. The US system is different of course but I reckon the chances of the British government falling over this are not inconsiderable, especially if it’s true that Macron and Merkel largely got their people out ahead of time.
Increasingly, I see a Trump 2nd presidency looming.
Very depressing.
Hope I am wrong.
Too early to say and a lot of things could happen but I do think a GOP majority in both Houses is looking more nailed on for 2022 (Adam Laxalt announcing his Senate run in Nevada is a plus for the GOP and I think Sununu will run in NH). What that could mean is impeachment hearings against Biden for the way he handled the Afghanistan exit.
I can see Biden turning out to be right about Afghanistan but blamed by voters for leaving in such a mess and not recovering.
Biden might be able to avoid another terrorist attack on US soil.
However he will still have allowed the Taliban to return to Afghanistan on his watch
They never left it.
HY's ignorance is breathtaking.
The US and UK troops were mostly holed up in fortified compounds, with limited interaction with locals particularly in more remote and dangerous regions. And frequently fended off Taliban attacks - from fighters who weren't on day trips from abroad, or from IEDs planted by Afghans.
The ignorance is yours.
In 2017 only tiny patches of Afghanistan were in Taliban control, just 13 districts out of 421 and no major cities.
Absolutely. The Trump Doha deal has nothing whatsoever to do with it. If America had reelected Trump then the even faster withdrawal that he and the GOP have been demanding of Biden would have gone off without a hitch and the Taliban being handed back control would have no control.
I have said Romney, who opposed the withdrawal, would be a better President than both Trump and Biden, as indeed would Hillary Clinton who was also wary about withdrawal.
As it is though 58% of Republicans now oppose the Afghanistan withdrawal so the GOP is becoming more interventionist again at last....
I think that seriously misinterprets the poll. What it means is they think Biden was wrong, no more than that - I doubt more than a fraction of them are more interventionist / inclined to go back in again.
If you notice that @HYUFD is so ready to support militarily intervention, he even gives away his position by saying the GOP is becoming more interventionist again AT LAST........
So this not-a-coalition coalition between SNP and the Scottish Greens, the write up on the BBC seems to suggest its basically a coalition but the Greens dont have to support some specific policies and can still criticise the government.
Is the little bit of extra stability worth the SNP giving them that latitude, above more regular minority gov or confidence and supply arrangements? It seems pretty generous.
Yes.
Yes it is worth the stability or yes it is generous? Or both?
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Tories gain a Council seat from the SNP. No evidence here of a huge Pro-Indy swing. The baseline is the 2017 council elections which took place a few weeks before the General Election when the SNP lost over 20 seats and knocked back Nicola's indyref plans.
Mid-Formartine (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative ~ 1480 (45.7%, +11.1) SNP ~ 1205 (37.2%, +11.4) Lib Dem ~ 412 (12.7%, +3.3) Green ~ 144 (4.4%, +4.4)
(Note: Candidates from 2017 not present had 30.1%)
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
And you will still lose indyref2
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
Maybe. Maybe not.
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
I think most people? Whatever one thinks of Gove (and I think he is a bit of a King Cnut), he is actually competent. Johnson is a hopeless case. Doesn't make him wrong on the "once in a generation vote" thing though. A lot of us that thought Brexit was a pointless and foolhardy policy have accepted the democratic vote. You nats should do the same. Oh, but hang on, the words "nationalist" and democracy don't really have a great history together do they?
The winning 2014 vote was a campaign which promised to stay in the single market. A single throwaway remark from the former first minister doesn't matter a jot in comparison.
I assume by the throw away remark you mean the one by the chap since referred to as "a bully and a sex pest" by his QC.
Either way, my point is that there were all sorts of things promised in the 2016 referendum in favour of Leave that were misleading. Nonetheless a vote was held and the result is now respected by most. No-one seriously expects a further referendum on Europe for a generation. The Scots should also respect the same principle. It was a once in a generation referendum. It should remain that way.
Utterly offtopic but from my visit to the Lakes yesterday ( a damp Thursday in August)
1) I've never seen it so full 2) a fair number of pubs were closed due to pings 3) a lot of places are still short staffed but have stopped recruiting because the people don't exist (and once September arrives it's going to be easier to just close a few rooms off).
People always exist at the right rate of pay. North sea oil rigs don't have a population bobbing up and down on a rowing boat waiting to be hired once the rig exists, but the pay attracts the people from all over the world. Nor was there a huge unemployed population in walking distance from Shoe Lane hoping for a financial services outfit called Goldman Sachs to turn up.
Exactly. It's like when people ponder how conducive to poppy growing Afghan's climate and terroir is. Overlooking the fact that it is more the governance that is the deciding factor.
As for your point it would mean inflationary pressures build which, according to many on here, is a good thing but I'm not so sure
Opium poppies are notably easy to grow and even easier to harvest. A perfect crop. So it’s much more about the legal situation/lawlessness of any locale
They grow particularly well in East Anglia and the Fens, and in the 16th-18th centuries there was a big fenland tradition of ‘poppy tea’ - to take away the agues and tediums of their watery lifestyle
Surely there must be some kind of tipping point looming up, where this government's accumulation of appaling administrative incompetences catches up with it to the point that it shows in the polls. Whatever you think of policies - good or bad - is almost irrelevant. They are just abysmal at execution. Reflecting the personna of the PM?
As the impact thus far on the popularity of the Cons has been minimal, it is actually more a crushing indictment of the official opposition as much as anything else, even allowing for Covid. It is difficult not to conclude that John Smith, Tony Blair (or Gordon Brown had he become leader in 1994) would have pulled way ahead by now.
The electors are not stupid. They can spot a dud, and have concluded that Labour are more incomptent than BJ's govt.
Covid-19 drug Donald Trump called "a blessing from God" approved for use in the UK @theipaper
Health Secretary @sajidjavid said approval of Ronapreve is “fantastic news” and he hopes it can be rolled out for patients on the NHS “as soon as possible”.
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
And you will still lose indyref2
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
Maybe. Maybe not.
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
For all our disagreements I think we agree there is no certainty over indyref2 and to be honest I just do not see it is difficult for Boris or any PM to defer to post the 2024 election, as we still have covid and the huge costs to be mitigated before it is even sensible to consider independence
Indeed I understand most Scots are not in favour of an early referendum
To defer the next Scottish independence referendum is not in the gift of Boris Johnson. The Scots have expressed their will at the ballot box.
Covid-19 drug Donald Trump called "a blessing from God" approved for use in the UK @theipaper
Health Secretary @sajidjavid said approval of Ronapreve is “fantastic news” and he hopes it can be rolled out for patients on the NHS “as soon as possible”.
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
And you will still lose indyref2
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
Maybe. Maybe not.
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
For all our disagreements I think we agree there is no certainty over indyref2 and to be honest I just do not see it is difficult for Boris or any PM to defer to post the 2024 election, as we still have covid and the huge costs to be mitigated before it is even sensible to consider independence
Indeed I understand most Scots are not in favour of an early referendum
To defer the next Scottish independence referendum is not in the gift of Boris Johnson. The Scots have expressed their will at the ballot box.
Comments
Cornwall 5,235
South-West 6,793
England 9,866
A lot of gaps to be filled in Cornwall and even more in rural Devon.
Delta is going to infect everyone at some point.
For the vaccinated that's not likely to be a problem.
The US is not a natural global policeman, much of its population is isolationist, if it now retreats back into itself for the next decade or two then the main beneficiaries will be Xi and Putin
And as for motivation, they are not doing it for the politicians they are doing it for their mates/unit, which is a strongly inculcated culture in HMF.
As someone or other once said: "I didn't join the British Army I joined the 10th Hussars."
And now, I must get my antigen test then my last Greek lunch
https://twitter.com/LeRef5/status/1427902952900071435?s=20
Mind you, when you're independent you won't have to worry about transmission charges....
Union: 23 % (-4)
SPD: 21 (+3)
GRN: 17% (-2)
Changes from 05.08.2021
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap.htm
I just don't know why you want to stay if you don't want people to post things about politicians and betting, it seems weird. Up to you though obviously.
What I am talking about is the logistical stuff that the Americans often turn up and do - provide helicopters, water and food etc. Which the UK military does already. Not trying to turn the RN into Unicef.
The planet needs to sort out its approach to leisure travel. This one isn't particularly working. Or it is but in the breach not the adherence.
How many people I wonder will actually take their Day 2 tests?
Didn't do much for my digestion....
Quite frankly, if he given half the energy to his job as he has directed to saving his skin he wouldn't be in this mess.
SNP 53%
SGP 3%
Pro-independence government 56%
SCon 22%
SLab 15%
SLD 5%
BetterTogether2 42%
oth 1% (presumably Alba)
Then factor in that 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
SPD + Green + Linke = 45%.
So a Union + SPD + Green coalition on 61% combined or a Union + SPD + FDP coalition on 57% combined still looks most likely
Liking the 'when' not 'if' Scotland is independent btw, at least your subconscious is getting with the programme.
and also Scots are opposed to increases in fuel bills to pay for green energy
Oppose 53%
Support 30%
Good start for the SNP-Green whatever it is
However, all double vaccinated.
As for your point it would mean inflationary pressures build which, according to many on here, is a good thing but I'm not so sure
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1428650534953705472?s=20
The last actual independence poll of course was 47% No and only 44% Yes
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-voting-intention-4-5-august/
But Johnson is too big a scaredy cat to find out.
Who’d’ve thought Gove had the bigger cajones?
In a University City! Surely they'll have folk queueing up for such work.
Instead, countries across the region are quickly turning elsewhere to look for shots.
Residents in Thailand vaccinated with one dose of China’s Sinovac are now given the AstraZeneca shot three to four weeks later. In Indonesia, officials are administering the Moderna vaccine as a booster to health care workers who had received two doses of Sinovac.
Malaysia’s health minister said the country would stop using Sinovac once its supply ran out. Even Cambodia, one of China’s strongest allies, has started using AstraZeneca as a booster for its frontline workers who had taken the Chinese vaccines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/business/economy/china-vaccine-us-covid-diplomacy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
Oh dear.
https://twitter.com/matthewchampion/status/1428625208018153475?s=20
1. Single sub-samples taken in isolation are almost worthless.
2. A substantial proportion of SNP/Green voters are pro-Union.
Which explanation do you think is closer to the mark?
Please don’t send in the tanks.
Is that your baldy heid poking out?
Indeed I understand most Scots are not in favour of an early referendum
I Do Not want to catch Covid. However inconvenient my partial withdrawal from consumerism may be for the right wing.
For the past 15 years prior to Covid large parts of this country used Eastern Europe as a source of those workers but that isn't currently an option - which is why things are in the state they are in.
Well, they seem to be ruthlessly successful apart from anything else.
Brexit has done nothing good for the Cornish fishing industry, either.
1. General rule - Cabinet Ministers survive most calls to resign
2. Blair's law - if survival depends on a good Commons performance, they will perform well & survive
3. Campbell's law - a bad splash is survivable but not 3 days in a row
4. Brown's law - conspiracies among Cabinet Ministers are common but unreliable and bound to fail
5. Rule of 4 Backbenchers - if 4 sensible, named backbenchers from the Minister's own party (but not from an opposing bloc within that party) go on the record, resignation is likely
6. Focus is Deadly - no matter how bad something smells it can be survived unless media focus falls on an unanswerable single point of failure
7. Fallacy of Complexity - Ministers mistakenly believe complexity will protect them but resignation issues are usually complex & obscure
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1428662314371371008
I commented yesterday on the tragedy of the 5 year old Afghan refugee child that had fallen from a hotel in Sheffield having just arrived from Afghanistan
Further details emerged today that the child died on the 18th August 4 days from arriving in the UK via the Foreign Office evacuation scheme for qualifying Afghans and that his father had worked at the British Embassy
It follows that this flight must have left around the Friday before the weekend collapse of the regime and therefore it appears the Foreign Office were already repatriating Afghans to the UK
This does not fit with the narrative that a phone call on the Saturday would have achieved anything as repatriation was already taking place
I am to the right of you but have absolutely no problem with people making their own decisions on how best to manage risk
What it means is they think Biden was wrong, no more than that - I doubt more than a fraction of them are more interventionist / inclined to go back in again.
Mid-Formartine (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative ~ 1480 (45.7%, +11.1)
SNP ~ 1205 (37.2%, +11.4)
Lib Dem ~ 412 (12.7%, +3.3)
Green ~ 144 (4.4%, +4.4)
(Note: Candidates from 2017 not present had 30.1%)
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1428422171664306177?s=20
Who presumably may have become infected and also need to be culled?
Taliban chances of getting a bung for hostages are presumably at their greatest right now, when it can be done cash in hand by special forces on the ground, rather than diplomatically when it’s a global news event.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9911163/Afghanistan-evacuation-not-going-save-want-UK-admits.html
Armed Forces Minister James Heappey: ‘The air bridge could last two more days, five more days, ten more days,' he added, insisting that the armed forces are 'working hard to maximise capacity' on every flight while revealing 963 people were taken out of Kabul on British flights yesterday with 1,000 expected to be flown out today.
Meanwhile a Pentagon spokesman said the US has evacuated some 7,000 people since Sunday, bringing the total since July to 12,000 with a target of at least 22,000 - though aid groups had said 80,000 would need to be flown out to keep Biden's promise to provide sanctuary to all those who helped US forces.
The UK will not be able to evacuate everyone it has promised sanctuary to from Afghanistan and the air bridge to Kabul airport may remain open for just a few more days, the armed forces minister has admitted today.
That doesn't mean it won't remain a the world's most powerful military power - or that it will abandon alliances with fellow democracies - but it's probably going to avoid intervening anywhere which isn't in its clear interest.
deckchairs = good https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1428664264814956548/photo/1
Joy makes a good point, which is that, if Dominic Raab is sacked, he shouldn’t be replaced by the Taliban.
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1428665037883953153
Either way, my point is that there were all sorts of things promised in the 2016 referendum in favour of Leave that were misleading. Nonetheless a vote was held and the result is now respected by most. No-one seriously expects a further referendum on Europe for a generation. The Scots should also respect the same principle. It was a once in a generation referendum. It should remain that way.
Wow. COVAX - the great hope for global vaccination - is a f*cking travesty.
Here’s the percentage of supply promises that have actually been met:
J&J - 0%
Moderna - 0%
Novavax - 0%
Pfizer - 4%
Serum Inst (AZ) - 15%
Astra-Zeneca - 38%
https://twitter.com/davidrkadler/status/1428436495673831424?s=20
Outside COVAX purchases there have been some (eg Moderna) donations
Though some say we should aim a little higher, pah.
They grow particularly well in East Anglia and the Fens, and in the 16th-18th centuries there was a big fenland tradition of ‘poppy tea’ - to take away the agues and tediums of their watery lifestyle
Surely there must be some kind of tipping point looming up, where this government's accumulation of appaling administrative incompetences catches up with it to the point that it shows in the polls. Whatever you think of policies - good or bad - is almost irrelevant. They are just abysmal at execution. Reflecting the personna of the PM?
As the impact thus far on the popularity of the Cons has been minimal, it is actually more a crushing indictment of the official opposition as much as anything else, even allowing for Covid. It is difficult not to conclude that John Smith, Tony Blair (or Gordon Brown had he become leader in 1994) would have pulled way ahead by now.
The electors are not stupid. They can spot a dud, and have concluded that Labour are more incomptent than BJ's govt.
Heaven help us....
Health Secretary @sajidjavid said approval of Ronapreve is “fantastic news” and he hopes it can be rolled out for patients on the NHS “as soon as possible”.
https://twitter.com/PMGallagher1/status/1428663270630699014?s=20