Don’t fear for Keir – politicalbetting.com

Andy_JS said:

"Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is planning a snap election for Sept. 20 to seek voter approval for the government's costly plans to combat COVID-19, four sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

Trudeau is set to make the announcement on Sunday, said the sources, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation. Trudeau aides have said for months that the ruling Liberals would push for a vote before end-2021, two years ahead of schedule."

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-pm-trudeau-is-planning-call-snap-election-sept-20-sources-2021-08-12/

Andy_JS said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I get the impression Labour are still quite unpopular in working-class areas in the English Midlands where a lot of the marginal seats are located. If that continues, they won't be able to win a majority at the next general election.

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

Gallowgate said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Scott_xP said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

Follow the Brexit playbook; It worked once...

It looks more like the upside down version of the Brexit playbook that remain used - call all the Brexit voters thick racists, that'll do the trick

enough of them were. That's the point. If you are offended by that, perhaps you need to look to yourself and your own motivations.

Go on insulting them. It's sure to win them over eventually.

You won. You need to get over it.

How long will they keep on raging before they finally accept that they won?

The same goes for FBPE/piss diamond remainers. How long before they finally accept they lost. There are two incredibly tedious sides here. Diehard remain and diehard Brexit. Most people just want to get on with their lives.

I agree with this. The rage of any group who lost is common and understandable - eventually with time it fades. In this case, it’s the continued rage of the winners that is perplexing.

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I get the impression Labour are still quite unpopular in working-class areas in the English Midlands where a lot of the marginal seats are located. If that continues, they won't be able to win a majority at the next general election.

I think that's spot on. There's a bit of a lazy assumption that Red Wall = mainly northern seats. I reckon Labour's bigger problem is in the Midlands - it will be easier for them to win back some of the northern seats than those in the Midlands.

NickPalmer said:

Quincel said:

Foxy said:

On topic 😀

I am rather enjoying @Quincel Saturday headers, particularly with their emphasis on political betting!

I agree that Starmer is very likely to fight the next election. The problem is that election may well be prior to 2024, and instant resignation of unsuccessful leaders after elections has become the norm. Personally, I think this regrettable as parties need some time to reflect before choosing a new leader. There is no need for hasty choices.

On the one hand Starmer is wooden and unable to clearly communicate any vision for the party or country, and his flat-lining polls evidence that. This makes him unlikely to win enough seats to be next PM. In the less likely situation where the Tories lose their majority though, that lack of ideology and blank canvas is ideal for forming a coalition.

I think that Starmer would be a far better PM than he is as Leader of the Opposition. Labour could have done far better though.

Many thanks for this! I am trying to make a specific tip every week, though that's not going to be possible forever. I also agree this is much less safe than my normal bets, my natural 'sweet spot' is probably 1/2 bets which I think are more like 80% likely to win. But at longer than evens I do think it is value. There's probably a safer, but lower return, combo of backing Starmer to survive to 2024 and laying next election in 2024 at around 1/2 on Betfair/Smarkets.

Absolutely agree that if Starmer loses an election in 2023 it is very unlikely he'll be leader for more than a couple of weeks. There's always a small chance he'd remain during the leadership election, which might drag from an autumn election to early 2024 - but he'd probably step down within days and a caretaker leader handle that phase.

Another good Quincel piece - I'm sure he's right (assuming Starmer doesn't run into no major health issues, which nobody can ever rule out, but he seems healthy). There is a slow drift away from membership from people (mostly but not all on the left) who feel they don't really see the point at the moment, but I don't actually know anyone who is calling for a leader replacement. There's quite a lot riding on the conference speech, though, in terms of giving members something to look forward to.

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

"Oregon will deploy at least 500 National Guard troops to help its hospitals deal with a flood of coronavirus patients, as the state faces the largest wave of infections it has seen during the pandemic, the state’s governor said on Friday.

The governor, Kate Brown, said that hospitals were at risk of becoming overwhelmed, with 733 Oregonians hospitalized with severe cases of Covid-19, including 185 in intensive care."

NYTimes

That's about the equivalent of 12k hospitalizations in the UK.

Above average vaccination level with still significantly below that of the UK:

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/oregon

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

Gallowgate said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Scott_xP said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

Follow the Brexit playbook; It worked once...

It looks more like the upside down version of the Brexit playbook that remain used - call all the Brexit voters thick racists, that'll do the trick

enough of them were. That's the point. If you are offended by that, perhaps you need to look to yourself and your own motivations.

Go on insulting them. It's sure to win them over eventually.

You won. You need to get over it.

How long will they keep on raging before they finally accept that they won?

The same goes for FBPE/piss diamond remainers. How long before they finally accept they lost. There are two incredibly tedious sides here. Diehard remain and diehard Brexit. Most people just want to get on with their lives.

I agree with this. The rage of any group who lost is common and understandable - eventually with time it fades. In this case, it’s the continued rage of the winners that is perplexing.

StuartDickson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.

There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

- crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
- self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
- and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

D-

BlancheLivermore said:

I'm not sure what in my posts this morning has made me seem "animated" or "raging".

I'm really not. I can only assume this is projection.

kinabalu said:

Yep, 100% agree with this Header and not to lick my own cornetto but I've been saying similar for some time. Keir Starmer will be leading Labour into the general election. Given the market seems to doubt this it opens up a range of value bets, many of which I've done. The best of them is probably 'Starmer Next PM' at 8 - now 5.6 but still more a back than a lay. This is double juicy because it opposes TWO (imo) false market views at the same time, ie this Starmer one and also on Boris Johnson, the notion that the Magnificent Muscly Man might be swapped out for 'midget gem' Rishi Sunak before the GE. This is a 'fantasy politics' video game type event and will not be occurring outside of that. The next GE is Johnson v Starmer. It's a slam dunk 90%+ proposition. And the result? I'm on a roll here so I may as well throw that in for good measure. I haven't got the foggiest.

DougSeal said:

StuartDickson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.

There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

- crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
- self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
- and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

D-

Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.

Theuniondivvie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I'm not sure what in my posts this morning has made me seem "animated" or "raging".

I'm really not. I can only assume this is projection.

Fair enough, you aren't very animated.
Glad to have helped with your self esteem issues with a couple of likes though.

Theuniondivvie said:

DougSeal said:

StuartDickson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.

There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

- crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
- self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
- and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

D-

Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.

Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?

Quincel said:

kinabalu said:

Yep, 100% agree with this Header and not to lick my own cornetto but I've been saying similar for some time. Keir Starmer will be leading Labour into the general election. Given the market seems to doubt this it opens up a range of value bets, many of which I've done. The best of them is probably 'Starmer Next PM' at 8 - now 5.6 but still more a back than a lay. This is double juicy because it opposes TWO (imo) false market views at the same time, ie this Starmer one and also on Boris Johnson, the notion that the Magnificent Muscly Man might be swapped out for 'midget gem' Rishi Sunak before the GE. This is a 'fantasy politics' video game type event and will not be occurring outside of that. The next GE is Johnson v Starmer. It's a slam dunk 90%+ proposition. And the result? I'm on a roll here so I may as well throw that in for good measure. I haven't got the foggiest.

Completely agree about Johnson. I'll probably write up the value on him leading the Tories into the next election soon. But not next week - got a trip across the Atlantic prepped already for that one.

pigeon said:

Northern_Al said:

I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.

pigeon said:

pigeon said:

Northern_Al said:

I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.

Though that said, elsewhere on the Plague front...

NSW Covid update: entire state in lockdown as premier warns ‘this is literally a war’

Australian Medical Association says NSW health system ‘can no longer manage’ after record Delta case numbers

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/14/nsw-covid-update-case-numbers-entire-state-in-lockdown-as-premier-gladys-berejiklian-warns-this-is-literally-a-war

The consequences of Zero Covid running in tandem with something not very far off zero vaccination becoming abundantly clear, sadly.

Scott_xP said:

squareroot2 said:

We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.

DougSeal said:

@MichaelPSenger
Australia becomes the first advanced country to actually copy China's policy of sealing people into their rooms, locking hundreds of students in their rooms following a handful of positive COVID test results.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1426221818826813447

squareroot2 said:

Scott_xP said:

Morris_Dancer said:

One thing that would've helped, and also made sense, would've been Cameron insisting on an actual prospectus (EEA membership or not, etc) from the official Leave campaign. It remains bizarre this didn't happen as it would've been beneficial for the pro-EU side and also entirely legitimate.

Another fantasy.

Everything you post that is anti Brexit is a fantasy.
We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Theuniondivvie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.

Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.

Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.

Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.

OldKingCole said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:

Taz said:

Most people just want to get on with their lives.

And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)

It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing

Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.

Dura_Ace said:

StuartDickson said:

Scott_xP said:

Taz said:

Most people just want to get on with their lives.

And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)

My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.

I won't see it in my lifetime and I'm mid 50s. Although I'll almost certainly be killed in a motorcycle accident in the next 5-10 years.

The most likely long term trajectory is the 6 counties back in via a united Ireland, Scotland fast tracked in to spite England. England and Wales gradually realign into a Norway type relationship with the EU.

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am sure that @Quincel is right. Labour stuck by Corbyn, even when the vast majority of his MPs could see that he was a disaster and gave a vote of no confidence in him. SKS has clear and strong support amongst those MPs, even if he does not engender anything like the same level of fanaticism in the membership.

The MPs support him because he is decent, intelligent, reasonably principled and not obviously subject to the same delusional mindset that Corbyn was. I personally think that he would be much better suited to being a PM than he is LOTO. I think opposing for the sake of it is not something that he is comfortable with; he is really uncomfortable with the sort of cheap shots and gimmicks that LOTOs have to indulge in to get attention, he is in many ways the epitome of the reasonable man.

I would have been utterly horrified if someone with Corbyn's mindset had ever become our PM. I would be disappointed if SKS did but not overly alarmed or concerned. The incompetence of government would probably continue at a normal rate but would not increase exponentially. The competence and quality of his Shadow Cabinet is a bit of a concern but there are some complete muppets in the current cabinet such as Williamson and the damage is localised if significant.

All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of agreeing that @Casino_Royale has hit the nail on the head. He is not a politician, he's actually a better person than that.

He's a lawyer.

I'm not sure that counts as being a better person

His political ineptitude was, I think, best illustrated by his reaction to Labour's local election thrashing:

1) Said he had lost touch with ordinary people - while being in a London office surrounded by boring books.

2) Said he would take full responsibility and then tried to blame working class northern woman.

His lack of political nous is easily overcome by surrounding himself with a team of Malcolm Tuckers. Absolute b******* who can stick the knife in without getting blood on Starmer's hands.

I believe Dominic Cummings is free.

Or Blair McDougall. Currently available, I believe, and tweeting shite. But that would be part of his job anyway, so one qualification ticked off.

Pulpstar said:

DougSeal said:

pigeon said:

pigeon said:

Northern_Al said:

I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.

Though that said, elsewhere on the Plague front...

NSW Covid update: entire state in lockdown as premier warns ‘this is literally a war’

Australian Medical Association says NSW health system ‘can no longer manage’ after record Delta case numbers

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/14/nsw-covid-update-case-numbers-entire-state-in-lockdown-as-premier-gladys-berejiklian-warns-this-is-literally-a-war

The consequences of Zero Covid running in tandem with something not very far off zero vaccination becoming abundantly clear, sadly.

There’s two ways to have this pandemic, a messy beginning, or a messy end. Avoiding the mess completely is, however, not an option

Denmark has had an excellent pandemic I think.

Broadly have kept schools open
Lowish death toll
High vaccine uptake
High testing
Restrictions phased out sensibly.

DougSeal said:

OldKingCole said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:

Taz said:

Most people just want to get on with their lives.

And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)

It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing

Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.

Shared reality, globally, is irretrievably breaking down. Shared identity is the first to go. I try not to have one.

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Theuniondivvie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.

Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.

Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.

Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.

OldKingCole said:

DougSeal said:

OldKingCole said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:

Taz said:

Most people just want to get on with their lives.

And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)

It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing

Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.

Shared reality, globally, is irretrievably breaking down. Shared identity is the first to go. I try not to have one.

My immediate family has a wide range of identities. Essex, Kent, Lancashire, Wales, Thailand, New Zealand, Cornwall. There are positives and negatives for all of them, although I'm a bit dubious about Kent....

StuartDickson said:

Scott_xP said:

squareroot2 said:

We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.

This is the key weakness of Brexit. The Leavers ‘won’ in 2016, but they’ve never been happy since. They never will be. The Revolution has been betrayed, the Revolution has not been implemented according to plan (which plan?), not enough anti-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough pseudo-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough counter-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, the foreigners are picking on us, nobody loves us, everybody hates us, let’s eat worms. The Revolution will never be complete.

The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.

DougSeal said:

Carnyx said:

pigeon said:

Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

The collapse of the Euro
The collapse of the UK
The collapse of house prices

Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

The collapse of the Euro
The collapse of the UK
The collapse of house prices

Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.

All countries end eventually. The current borders of the U.K. having lasted 100 years is not a bad innings historically.

DougSeal said:

Carnyx said:

pigeon said:

Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

The collapse of the Euro
The collapse of the UK
The collapse of house prices

Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

The collapse of the Euro
The collapse of the UK
The collapse of house prices

Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.

All countries end eventually. The current borders of the U.K. having lasted 100 years is not a bad innings historically.

DougSeal said:

@MichaelPSenger
Australia becomes the first advanced country to actually copy China's policy of sealing people into their rooms, locking hundreds of students in their rooms following a handful of positive COVID test results.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1426221818826813447

Taz said:

OldKingCole said:

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:

Taz said:

Most people just want to get on with their lives.

And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)

It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing

Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.

Of course it differs. I’ve done the weekly shop this morning. Tesco at north burns first for some of the beers they sell. Shelves full. Then the big Sainsbury’s at the local shopping centre. Shelves full. Last week some of the freezer aisles were empty. This week full. My local cost cutter I go to in the week.,never any shortages.

The only shortages I have seen in the last two months was one week where there was no rice or pasta.

Northern_Al said:

I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

Mexicanpete said:

Dura_Ace said:

StuartDickson said:

Scott_xP said:

Taz said:

Most people just want to get on with their lives.

And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)

My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.

I won't see it in my lifetime and I'm mid 50s. Although I'll almost certainly be killed in a motorcycle accident in the next 5-10 years.

The most likely long term trajectory is the 6 counties back in via a united Ireland, Scotland fast tracked in to spite England. England and Wales gradually realign into a Norway type relationship with the EU.

Once Scotland and NI have gone the impetus towards independence will be taken up here in Wales for independence too.

Theuniondivvie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.

And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DougSeal said:

StuartDickson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.

There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

- crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
- self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
- and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

D-

Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.

Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?

The one thing this is not is an obscure website and I was told yesterday that my post re Brentford scoring was quicker than BBC Sport live reporting

However, there is a polarised and rather unpleasant constant recurring theme on Scotland's Independence and Brexit that is going nowhere

I am not sure how old @StuartDickson is but I suspect he is not as old as myself, who encountered the same bitterness in the early 1950's when I lived in Berwick and when I say it is just plain tedious, posters can see how long I have listened to the debate and of course Berwick itself changed hands 13 times

Talking of Berwick, then Scotland’s main port, 15,000 people were murdered in the English massacre of the townsfolk. No monument had been raised in memory of the slain when this article was published in 2013. Has any been erected since? Have the Scots ever received an apology?

https://www.berwickshirenews.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/andrew-marshall-berwick-massacre-must-be-remembered-too-2346683

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic hopefully you are wrong otherwise a 5th successive defeat for Labour

malcolmg said:

Fishing said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Good, persuasive article Pip.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.

Yes, I agree with that. Most English people only notice Scotland when it complains particularly loudly, or demands even more subsidies.

Another ignoramus, go get educated dummy, we have been propping you up since the 70's.