Don’t fear for Keir – politicalbetting.com
Don’t fear for Keir – politicalbetting.com
Bookies will give you just 1/2 on the next election being in 2024, but longer than evens on Starmer being Labour leader that long. That doesn’t add up…
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@BNODesk
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My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.
Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?
Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.
England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.
But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.
- crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
- self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
- and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)
Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.
English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.
Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.
Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.
D-
The population of Britain is around 68 million, of whom about five and a half million are Scots. That's smaller than London. In the event of Scottish independence, the remaining UK would still be a peer of Germany, Italy and France. We'd probably hang on to the missiles and security council seat too. I've not heard Nicola Sturgeon claim Polaris for an independent Scotland, though to be fair, I've not been paying attention.
English voters are not agitating for Scottish independence, or against it. Unless there's a football match, I'm not sure I've heard much discussion of Scotland at all in the past few decades, although I do know older English couples who married in Gretna Green or honeymooned in Fort William. I doubt the average English voter could accurately place Glasgow and Edinburgh on a map. That should be the case for Scottish independence: that England cannot give Scottish affairs the attention they deserve; not that there is plotting to do Scotland down.
What do you think about Pip’s 40-50 seats? Are the Tories going to lose that many?
We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
Mr. Dickson, I must disagree entirely.
The UK had already seen substantial rises in support for UKIP/leaving the EU before the 2014 Scottish referendum. Labour's reneging of the Lisbon Treaty referendum was an obvious recent cause.
Not only that, but Remain ran an absolutely atrocious campaign.
There are more things in this universe than Scotland and the desire by some for Scotland to leave the UK. It isn't the root cause of everything. It was not the root cause of the UK voting to leave the EU.
@Stuart_Dickson just seems consumed with hate for the English as do so many others who have not come to terms with Brexit and ignore the fact 53% in Wales voted brexit and even 38% in Scotland
I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.
I would also say she condemns the hate filled nationalists who do so much damage to the reputation of the kind and generous people who are Scots
It’s sad.
https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/stay-fk-away-convoy-scottish-nationalists-attempt-blockade-english-border-2904148
A different currency is the only change that I can think of, but that’s hardly the end of the world.
The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
Is he suffering from BDS?
It'd be bad for Scotland, and for the rest of the UK.
England is a strange place nowadays, and one divided against itself. I cannot see the Union surviving for much longer.
On the currency, Indy Scotland should join the Euro, but stay in the CTA. It works for Ireland. Probably need to have direct ferries to the continent again because of the land border to England. There will be teething problems disentangling from the Union, but in the long term better for Scotland to go its own way.
I have English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish ancestry, so will have some regrets at the end of British identity. I have always been more comfortable as British than English as an identity, but so it goes.
I'm not denying the rather sad political polarisation in England, but the idea that Scotland isn't riddled with that too is clearly false. Not sure why you single out one and not the other, seems a little one-sided.
Personally I would have been happy with the constituent parts of the present UK as separate entities within the EU, but I fear now that I won't live long enough to see it, or anything like it.
And a logical consequence of Brexit.
English Leavers seem to fall into 3 groups:
1) Tankies like @HYUFD who see Scotland as a colony to be occupied.
2) Those who couldn't care less about Scotland (or Northern Ireland etc for that matter)
3) Those who actively want rid, seeing the Celtic nations as a drag financially and politically on England.
Also, I don't fall into any of those three pejorative categories you've invented to condemn English leavers as either imperialists, disinterested, or actively pro-Scottish independence. I like the UK. I want it to remain intact.
I'm entirely comfortable with multiple identities (being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, and Briton). That doesn't mean I *have to* feel European in a cultural sense, or approve of the political and economic integration into the EU which could've, and should've, been handled far better rather than endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.
That's such a common feeling that I cannot believe people cannot understand it, and that people would therefore regret the breakup of the nation, even if they would not, even if, I fear, a great many would not.
I totally get people not caring or seeing it as a big deal. I'd get that if it was a majority. But I dont get the idea it is some confusing mystery that some do care as it's so common and simple. I find that more insulting to people who do care about any national or international identity than an actual insult.
Abroad, in Europe I feel British, but further afield I feel European.
In Scotland, I feel English. Elsewhere in the U.K. I’m a southerner.
But fundamentally I’m from Sussex.
https://twitter.com/rainy101/status/1426261117341405191?s=21
Who elected Von Der Leyen?
Scottish constituencies also contribute MPs. Before we had Conservative PMs, we had over a decade of Scottish Chancellors and between three and 13 years of a Scottish premiership (Blair being half-Scottish).
I get Scots, and others, feeling Westminster is too distant, too focused on London. But the idea it isn't a Parliament represented by MPs that are elected by people all across the UK is palpable nonsense.
The EU is constantly on the path of more integration. The UK has moved in the opposite direction over the last couple of decades.
If you don't like the article, don't read it.
Theres no mystery or illogic about a specific combination.
Even now that we are out, BoZo and chums are still blaming their failures on Foreign bogy men.
As one of the Elect there was no need for her to be elected.
Disintegration of the UK is a consequence of Brexit though, in part because NI and Scotland wanted to stay in the EU by significant majorities. Not only are they dragged out against their will, but in a form of Brexit that gave no concessions to Scottish voices, symbolising Westminsters lack of interest in the other nations.
Secondly the arguments to "Take back Control" from rule by an external parliament are at least as valid for Scotland as for Brexit. Nationalism is like Protestantism, fundamentally fissile. Once you have broken away from the main on one issue, then there is no bar to breaking into smaller splinters.
Those who argued for Brexit but against Indy are fundamentally dishonest.
I'm also not sure why you've put unelected bureaucrats in inverted commas. The only elections I recall were for MEPs, who were able to approve, or reject, laws proposed by the Commission.
How does that compare with the House of Lords?
ok - corrected
What I object to is the sense that I ought to be regretful about it. I’m a democrat who firmly believes in the principle of self determination. If Scotland wants another referendum, they should have it.
Scottish politics has changed in the last decade, and the majority party in Scotland is not a part of any Westminster government. Scots are represented by one or other of two parties in Westminster who scratch around to get 20% of the Scottish vote. That is not a sustainable situation in the long term. It means English hegemony over non devolved matters.
You seem to be unacquainted with the political facts.
Dr. Foxy, it's almost as if pro-EU politicians giving no concessions to sceptics even when these were contained within manifestos of major political parties was a dumb move. Or that a pro-EU Parliament repeatedly rejecting every proposal and offering nothing but opposition, pushing the departure in an ever more sceptical/hardline direction, wasn't exactly in line with pro-EU interests.
Boris Johnson is a moron, but even a pragmatic and intelligent man, faced with the situation of May's deal thrice rejected, would have struggled to find a compromise position. As I said repeatedly, when you have EU-loving MPs marching to vote the same way as Mark Francois, one side is voting stupidly.
Furthermore, the embedding of political division in Scotland by the creation of Holyrood, made a permanent and naturally deepening gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK due to the ratchet effect of the SNP always able to outbid the other parties on 'standing up for Scotland' by clamouring for more and more powers and difference (because, of course, for the SNP the end goal of leaving is desirable and for the other parties excepting the male angler fish that is the Scottish Green Party it is not).
That long pre-dated the rise of EU-sceptic sentiment in the UK.
Also, you're fundamentally wrong about the UK and EU situations being the same. One is a nation state of over three centuries which has democratic elections to determine our lawmakers. The other is a supranational political project which is not democratically accountable yet is at the same time engaged in an endless drive for empire-building and integration, with power shifting from democratic member states to the undemocratic centre. This centralisation of power is also the opposite direction to recent UK moves, which has seen more and more power devolved to the assemblies/parliaments of the constituent nations (excepting the English, of course).
Mr. xP, the Upper House of the UK cannot propose legislation and it can be overridden. In the EU, however, the elected part of the system cannot propose legislation.
Von Der Leyen was not thus elected.
I am rather enjoying @Quincel Saturday headers, particularly with their emphasis on political betting!
I agree that Starmer is very likely to fight the next election. The problem is that election may well be prior to 2024, and instant resignation of unsuccessful leaders after elections has become the norm. Personally, I think this regrettable as parties need some time to reflect before choosing a new leader. There is no need for hasty choices.
On the one hand Starmer is wooden and unable to clearly communicate any vision for the party or country, and his flat-lining polls evidence that. This makes him unlikely to win enough seats to be next PM. In the less likely situation where the Tories lose their majority though, that lack of ideology and blank canvas is ideal for forming a coalition.
I think that Starmer would be a far better PM than he is as Leader of the Opposition. Labour could have done far better though.
But in all seriousness, what would a non-punishing divorce look like. How would a nice soft liberal like you handle it? The reality is that any punishment will be self-inflicted.
Good to have someone on who’s able to speak for most people, though ‘am I bovvered’ isn’t always the most convincing argument for not being bothered.
Absolutely agree that if Starmer loses an election in 2023 it is very unlikely he'll be leader for more than a couple of weeks. There's always a small chance he'd remain during the leadership election, which might drag from an autumn election to early 2024 - but he'd probably step down within days and a caretaker leader handle that phase.