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Don’t fear for Keir – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidL said:

    On topic I am sure that @Quincel is right. Labour stuck by Corbyn, even when the vast majority of his MPs could see that he was a disaster and gave a vote of no confidence in him. SKS has clear and strong support amongst those MPs, even if he does not engender anything like the same level of fanaticism in the membership.

    The MPs support him because he is decent, intelligent, reasonably principled and not obviously subject to the same delusional mindset that Corbyn was. I personally think that he would be much better suited to being a PM than he is LOTO. I think opposing for the sake of it is not something that he is comfortable with; he is really uncomfortable with the sort of cheap shots and gimmicks that LOTOs have to indulge in to get attention, he is in many ways the epitome of the reasonable man.

    I would have been utterly horrified if someone with Corbyn's mindset had ever become our PM. I would be disappointed if SKS did but not overly alarmed or concerned. The incompetence of government would probably continue at a normal rate but would not increase exponentially. The competence and quality of his Shadow Cabinet is a bit of a concern but there are some complete muppets in the current cabinet such as Williamson and the damage is localised if significant.

    All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of agreeing that @Casino_Royale has hit the nail on the head. He is not a politician, he's actually a better person than that.

    He's a lawyer.

    I'm not sure that counts as being a better person :wink:

    His political ineptitude was, I think, best illustrated by his reaction to Labour's local election thrashing:

    1) Said he had lost touch with ordinary people - while being in a London office surrounded by boring books.

    2) Said he would take full responsibility and then tried to blame working class northern woman.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,444
    edited August 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    "Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is planning a snap election for Sept. 20 to seek voter approval for the government's costly plans to combat COVID-19, four sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

    Trudeau is set to make the announcement on Sunday, said the sources, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation. Trudeau aides have said for months that the ruling Liberals would push for a vote before end-2021, two years ahead of schedule."

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-pm-trudeau-is-planning-call-snap-election-sept-20-sources-2021-08-12/

    One reason that we too may have an early election, despite the lack of precedent is the financial reckoning coming our way, which is something likely to cause a lot of division in the government.

    If Johnson thinks that there is a serious challenger emerging one dodge is to prevent the challenge by calling an early election. If he wins he gets saved from being culled by his own party. The only thing that he does well apart from after dinner speaking is election campaigning. Everything else he neither relishes nor shows any ability at.

    The temptation to go early may well be because campaigning is the only bit that Johnson enjoys.
  • Mr. Pioneers, a strong argument against that is that the end of a single customs area in GB would add a border where there isn't one. While that happened with NI (and I think that was horrendous), it occurred there due to the legacy of the Troubles. There's no such consideration with Scotland and a single customs area would be mutually beneficial.

    That doesn't mean it would happen, of course. But neither side benefits from it ending.

    I made no argument about the pros and cons of such a thing. I just noted the facts. The UK Prime Minister went to NI, told both local politicians and business leaders that there woulkd never be an end to the UK customs area, and then unilaterally scrapped it when it suited the interests of England.

    During the Scottish referendum campaign to (eventually) come, politicians will cross the wall and sincerely pledge that we're better together and Scots can trust their friends and partners in England. And Liar in that business meeting and at the DUP conference saying the exact same thing will be on endless repeat.

    It is that simple: you cannot trust the word of the UK Prime Minister on major constitutional issues. When push comes to shove, the factional needs of England overrule everyone and everything else.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,473
    Andy_JS said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I get the impression Labour are still quite unpopular in working-class areas in the English Midlands where a lot of the marginal seats are located. If that continues, they won't be able to win a majority at the next general election.
    I think that's spot on. There's a bit of a lazy assumption that Red Wall = mainly northern seats. I reckon Labour's bigger problem is in the Midlands - it will be easier for them to win back some of the northern seats than those in the Midlands.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,233

    DavidL said:

    On topic I am sure that @Quincel is right. Labour stuck by Corbyn, even when the vast majority of his MPs could see that he was a disaster and gave a vote of no confidence in him. SKS has clear and strong support amongst those MPs, even if he does not engender anything like the same level of fanaticism in the membership.

    The MPs support him because he is decent, intelligent, reasonably principled and not obviously subject to the same delusional mindset that Corbyn was. I personally think that he would be much better suited to being a PM than he is LOTO. I think opposing for the sake of it is not something that he is comfortable with; he is really uncomfortable with the sort of cheap shots and gimmicks that LOTOs have to indulge in to get attention, he is in many ways the epitome of the reasonable man.

    I would have been utterly horrified if someone with Corbyn's mindset had ever become our PM. I would be disappointed if SKS did but not overly alarmed or concerned. The incompetence of government would probably continue at a normal rate but would not increase exponentially. The competence and quality of his Shadow Cabinet is a bit of a concern but there are some complete muppets in the current cabinet such as Williamson and the damage is localised if significant.

    All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of agreeing that @Casino_Royale has hit the nail on the head. He is not a politician, he's actually a better person than that.

    He's a lawyer.

    I'm not sure that counts as being a better person :wink:

    His political ineptitude was, I think, best illustrated by his reaction to Labour's local election thrashing:

    1) Said he had lost touch with ordinary people - while being in a London office surrounded by boring books.

    2) Said he would take full responsibility and then tried to blame working class northern woman.
    When I win a court case this is of course a result of my skill, ingenuity and persistence. When I lose the client has clearly failed to explain or stick to their position. This is human nature but I would tentatively suggest that it is not restricted to lawyers!
  • Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Follow the Brexit playbook; It worked once...
    It looks more like the upside down version of the Brexit playbook that remain used - call all the Brexit voters thick racists, that'll do the trick
    enough of them were. That's the point. If you are offended by that, perhaps you need to look to yourself and your own motivations.
    Go on insulting them. It's sure to win them over eventually.
    You won. You need to get over it.
    How long will they keep on raging before they finally accept that they won?
    The same goes for FBPE/piss diamond remainers. How long before they finally accept they lost. There are two incredibly tedious sides here. Diehard remain and diehard Brexit. Most people just want to get on with their lives.
    I agree with this. The rage of any group who lost is common and understandable - eventually with time it fades. In this case, it’s the continued rage of the winners that is perplexing.
    A lot of Leave voters (EEA types, say, or all the benefits none of the costs proponents) haven't got what they voted for either.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,474

    DavidL said:

    On topic I am sure that @Quincel is right. Labour stuck by Corbyn, even when the vast majority of his MPs could see that he was a disaster and gave a vote of no confidence in him. SKS has clear and strong support amongst those MPs, even if he does not engender anything like the same level of fanaticism in the membership.

    The MPs support him because he is decent, intelligent, reasonably principled and not obviously subject to the same delusional mindset that Corbyn was. I personally think that he would be much better suited to being a PM than he is LOTO. I think opposing for the sake of it is not something that he is comfortable with; he is really uncomfortable with the sort of cheap shots and gimmicks that LOTOs have to indulge in to get attention, he is in many ways the epitome of the reasonable man.

    I would have been utterly horrified if someone with Corbyn's mindset had ever become our PM. I would be disappointed if SKS did but not overly alarmed or concerned. The incompetence of government would probably continue at a normal rate but would not increase exponentially. The competence and quality of his Shadow Cabinet is a bit of a concern but there are some complete muppets in the current cabinet such as Williamson and the damage is localised if significant.

    All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of agreeing that @Casino_Royale has hit the nail on the head. He is not a politician, he's actually a better person than that.

    He's a lawyer.

    I'm not sure that counts as being a better person :wink:

    His political ineptitude was, I think, best illustrated by his reaction to Labour's local election thrashing:

    1) Said he had lost touch with ordinary people - while being in a London office surrounded by boring books.

    2) Said he would take full responsibility and then tried to blame working class northern woman.
    His lack of political nous is easily overcome by surrounding himself with a team of Malcolm Tuckers. Absolute b******* who can stick the knife in without getting blood on Starmer's hands.

    I believe Dominic Cummings is free.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,444
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I am sure that @Quincel is right. Labour stuck by Corbyn, even when the vast majority of his MPs could see that he was a disaster and gave a vote of no confidence in him. SKS has clear and strong support amongst those MPs, even if he does not engender anything like the same level of fanaticism in the membership.

    The MPs support him because he is decent, intelligent, reasonably principled and not obviously subject to the same delusional mindset that Corbyn was. I personally think that he would be much better suited to being a PM than he is LOTO. I think opposing for the sake of it is not something that he is comfortable with; he is really uncomfortable with the sort of cheap shots and gimmicks that LOTOs have to indulge in to get attention, he is in many ways the epitome of the reasonable man.

    I would have been utterly horrified if someone with Corbyn's mindset had ever become our PM. I would be disappointed if SKS did but not overly alarmed or concerned. The incompetence of government would probably continue at a normal rate but would not increase exponentially. The competence and quality of his Shadow Cabinet is a bit of a concern but there are some complete muppets in the current cabinet such as Williamson and the damage is localised if significant.

    All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of agreeing that @Casino_Royale has hit the nail on the head. He is not a politician, he's actually a better person than that.

    He's a lawyer.

    I'm not sure that counts as being a better person :wink:

    His political ineptitude was, I think, best illustrated by his reaction to Labour's local election thrashing:

    1) Said he had lost touch with ordinary people - while being in a London office surrounded by boring books.

    2) Said he would take full responsibility and then tried to blame working class northern woman.
    When I win a court case this is of course a result of my skill, ingenuity and persistence. When I lose the client has clearly failed to explain or stick to their position. This is human nature but I would tentatively suggest that it is not restricted to lawyers!
    Indeed, I find the same in my practice. A healthy patient discharged is evidence of my therapeutic skill, but one beset by disaster is evidence that his illness was too severe.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,233

    Andy_JS said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I get the impression Labour are still quite unpopular in working-class areas in the English Midlands where a lot of the marginal seats are located. If that continues, they won't be able to win a majority at the next general election.
    I think that's spot on. There's a bit of a lazy assumption that Red Wall = mainly northern seats. I reckon Labour's bigger problem is in the Midlands - it will be easier for them to win back some of the northern seats than those in the Midlands.
    Yep, and Eastern England has been trending Tory too. Some of this has been at the price of a weakening of their once solid grip of SE England but it has massively improved the efficiency of the Tory vote from those shocking results against Blair.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Mr. Pioneers, I've long said the PM was not fit to be in Cabinet let alone running it.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,846
    edited August 2021

    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic 😀

    I am rather enjoying @Quincel Saturday headers, particularly with their emphasis on political betting!

    I agree that Starmer is very likely to fight the next election. The problem is that election may well be prior to 2024, and instant resignation of unsuccessful leaders after elections has become the norm. Personally, I think this regrettable as parties need some time to reflect before choosing a new leader. There is no need for hasty choices.

    On the one hand Starmer is wooden and unable to clearly communicate any vision for the party or country, and his flat-lining polls evidence that. This makes him unlikely to win enough seats to be next PM. In the less likely situation where the Tories lose their majority though, that lack of ideology and blank canvas is ideal for forming a coalition.

    I think that Starmer would be a far better PM than he is as Leader of the Opposition. Labour could have done far better though.

    Many thanks for this! I am trying to make a specific tip every week, though that's not going to be possible forever. I also agree this is much less safe than my normal bets, my natural 'sweet spot' is probably 1/2 bets which I think are more like 80% likely to win. But at longer than evens I do think it is value. There's probably a safer, but lower return, combo of backing Starmer to survive to 2024 and laying next election in 2024 at around 1/2 on Betfair/Smarkets.

    Absolutely agree that if Starmer loses an election in 2023 it is very unlikely he'll be leader for more than a couple of weeks. There's always a small chance he'd remain during the leadership election, which might drag from an autumn election to early 2024 - but he'd probably step down within days and a caretaker leader handle that phase.
    Another good Quincel piece - I'm sure he's right (assuming Starmer doesn't run into no major health issues, which nobody can ever rule out, but he seems healthy). There is a slow drift away from membership from people (mostly but not all on the left) who feel they don't really see the point at the moment, but I don't actually know anyone who is calling for a leader replacement. There's quite a lot riding on the conference speech, though, in terms of giving members something to look forward to.
    ...Doesnt run into no major health issues. ... isn't that almost a double negative....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,237
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    "Oregon will deploy at least 500 National Guard troops to help its hospitals deal with a flood of coronavirus patients, as the state faces the largest wave of infections it has seen during the pandemic, the state’s governor said on Friday.

    The governor, Kate Brown, said that hospitals were at risk of becoming overwhelmed, with 733 Oregonians hospitalized with severe cases of Covid-19, including 185 in intensive care."

    NYTimes

    That's about the equivalent of 12k hospitalizations in the UK.

    Above average vaccination level with still significantly below that of the UK:

    https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/oregon

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England
    Off of only 1652 cases a day (although rising) which is the UK equivalent of just 26,000 cases.

    This reflects both
    1) How much more testing the UK does than the US
    2) Vaccines work
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,117
    edited August 2021
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
    I care quite a lot about what is happening at the Scottish Rape Crisis Centre, the rather odd circumstances around the awarding of a contract for women's services, the Scottish government's proposed changes to the definition of "woman" and the Scottish Education Minister's recent guidance to primary schools.

    Very happy to debate this - but I'm willing to guess you - and others - might be less keen.
  • I'm not sure what in my posts this morning has made me seem "animated" or "raging".

    I'm really not. I can only assume this is projection.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,095
    edited August 2021
    Yep, 100% agree with this Header, and not to lick my own cornetto but I've been saying similar for some time. Keir Starmer will be leading Labour into the general election. Given the market seems to doubt this it opens up a range of value bets, many of which I've done. The best of them is probably 'Starmer Next PM' at 8 - now 5.6 but still more a back than a lay. This is double juicy because it opposes TWO (imo) false market views at the same time, ie this Starmer one and also on Boris Johnson, the notion the Magnificent Muscly Man might be swapped out for 'midget gem' Rishi Sunak before the GE. This is a 'fantasy politics' video game type event and won't be occurring outside of that. The next GE is Johnson v Starmer. It's a slam dunk 90%+ proposition. And the result? I'm on a roll here so I may as well throw that in for good measure. I haven't got the foggiest.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,278

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Follow the Brexit playbook; It worked once...
    It looks more like the upside down version of the Brexit playbook that remain used - call all the Brexit voters thick racists, that'll do the trick
    enough of them were. That's the point. If you are offended by that, perhaps you need to look to yourself and your own motivations.
    Go on insulting them. It's sure to win them over eventually.
    You won. You need to get over it.
    How long will they keep on raging before they finally accept that they won?
    The same goes for FBPE/piss diamond remainers. How long before they finally accept they lost. There are two incredibly tedious sides here. Diehard remain and diehard Brexit. Most people just want to get on with their lives.
    I agree with this. The rage of any group who lost is common and understandable - eventually with time it fades. In this case, it’s the continued rage of the winners that is perplexing.
    Yep, I've also noted the relatively recent phenomena of bad winners (see also Unionists and Trumpers). I'll wait and see how it pans out with the Trumpers now they've lost but the signs aren't good; I fear angry winners make even angrier losers.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    I'm not sure what in my posts this morning has made me seem "animated" or "raging".

    I'm really not. I can only assume this is projection.

    Yes, it is. If you look at those making the accusation do they strike you as the most balanced or sanest of posters ?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,237

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.
    Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.
    Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

    PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.
    Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

    Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,278

    I'm not sure what in my posts this morning has made me seem "animated" or "raging".

    I'm really not. I can only assume this is projection.

    Fair enough, you aren't very animated.
    Glad to have helped with your self esteem issues with a couple of likes though.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    kinabalu said:

    Yep, 100% agree with this Header and not to lick my own cornetto but I've been saying similar for some time. Keir Starmer will be leading Labour into the general election. Given the market seems to doubt this it opens up a range of value bets, many of which I've done. The best of them is probably 'Starmer Next PM' at 8 - now 5.6 but still more a back than a lay. This is double juicy because it opposes TWO (imo) false market views at the same time, ie this Starmer one and also on Boris Johnson, the notion that the Magnificent Muscly Man might be swapped out for 'midget gem' Rishi Sunak before the GE. This is a 'fantasy politics' video game type event and will not be occurring outside of that. The next GE is Johnson v Starmer. It's a slam dunk 90%+ proposition. And the result? I'm on a roll here so I may as well throw that in for good measure. I haven't got the foggiest.

    Completely agree about Johnson. I'll probably write up the value on him leading the Tories into the next election soon. But not next week - got a trip across the Atlantic prepped already for that one.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.
    Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.
    Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

    PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.
    Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

    Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.
    You poor guy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,278
    DougSeal said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
    Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,473
    I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

    Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?
  • I'm not sure what in my posts this morning has made me seem "animated" or "raging".

    I'm really not. I can only assume this is projection.

    Fair enough, you aren't very animated.
    Glad to have helped with your self esteem issues with a couple of likes though.
    Aw thanks! You can have one back x
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,846
    Scott_xP said:

    One thing that would've helped, and also made sense, would've been Cameron insisting on an actual prospectus (EEA membership or not, etc) from the official Leave campaign. It remains bizarre this didn't happen as it would've been beneficial for the pro-EU side and also entirely legitimate.

    Another fantasy.
    Everything you post that is anti Brexit is a fantasy.
    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322

    DougSeal said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
    Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?
    It would certainly be a small jump to fill the longueurs
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

    Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

    Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

    Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322
    @MichaelPSenger
    Australia becomes the first advanced country to actually copy China's policy of sealing people into their rooms, locking hundreds of students in their rooms following a handful of positive COVID test results.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1426221818826813447
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109

    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

    Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,095
    edited August 2021
    Quincel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yep, 100% agree with this Header and not to lick my own cornetto but I've been saying similar for some time. Keir Starmer will be leading Labour into the general election. Given the market seems to doubt this it opens up a range of value bets, many of which I've done. The best of them is probably 'Starmer Next PM' at 8 - now 5.6 but still more a back than a lay. This is double juicy because it opposes TWO (imo) false market views at the same time, ie this Starmer one and also on Boris Johnson, the notion that the Magnificent Muscly Man might be swapped out for 'midget gem' Rishi Sunak before the GE. This is a 'fantasy politics' video game type event and will not be occurring outside of that. The next GE is Johnson v Starmer. It's a slam dunk 90%+ proposition. And the result? I'm on a roll here so I may as well throw that in for good measure. I haven't got the foggiest.

    Completely agree about Johnson. I'll probably write up the value on him leading the Tories into the next election soon. But not next week - got a trip across the Atlantic prepped already for that one.
    Ok! We do seem aligned atm, me and you. Interested to hear something on the USA. Just hope it's not tipping Trump. :smile:
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,416

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.
    I won't see it in my lifetime and I'm mid 50s. Although I'll almost certainly be killed in a motorcycle accident in the next 5-10 years.

    The most likely long term trajectory is the 6 counties back in via a united Ireland, Scotland fast tracked in to spite England. England and Wales gradually realign into a Norway type relationship with the EU.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    pigeon said:

    I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

    Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

    Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

    Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.
    Though that said, elsewhere on the Plague front...

    NSW Covid update: entire state in lockdown as premier warns ‘this is literally a war’

    Australian Medical Association says NSW health system ‘can no longer manage’ after record Delta case numbers


    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/14/nsw-covid-update-case-numbers-entire-state-in-lockdown-as-premier-gladys-berejiklian-warns-this-is-literally-a-war

    The consequences of Zero Covid running in tandem with something not very far off zero vaccination becoming abundantly clear, sadly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
    Still waiting for the incoming controls to kick in in October, though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

    Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

    Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

    Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.
    Though that said, elsewhere on the Plague front...

    NSW Covid update: entire state in lockdown as premier warns ‘this is literally a war’

    Australian Medical Association says NSW health system ‘can no longer manage’ after record Delta case numbers


    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/14/nsw-covid-update-case-numbers-entire-state-in-lockdown-as-premier-gladys-berejiklian-warns-this-is-literally-a-war

    The consequences of Zero Covid running in tandem with something not very far off zero vaccination becoming abundantly clear, sadly.
    There’s two ways to have this pandemic, a messy beginning, or a messy end. Avoiding the mess completely is, however, not an option
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907

    DavidL said:

    On topic I am sure that @Quincel is right. Labour stuck by Corbyn, even when the vast majority of his MPs could see that he was a disaster and gave a vote of no confidence in him. SKS has clear and strong support amongst those MPs, even if he does not engender anything like the same level of fanaticism in the membership.

    The MPs support him because he is decent, intelligent, reasonably principled and not obviously subject to the same delusional mindset that Corbyn was. I personally think that he would be much better suited to being a PM than he is LOTO. I think opposing for the sake of it is not something that he is comfortable with; he is really uncomfortable with the sort of cheap shots and gimmicks that LOTOs have to indulge in to get attention, he is in many ways the epitome of the reasonable man.

    I would have been utterly horrified if someone with Corbyn's mindset had ever become our PM. I would be disappointed if SKS did but not overly alarmed or concerned. The incompetence of government would probably continue at a normal rate but would not increase exponentially. The competence and quality of his Shadow Cabinet is a bit of a concern but there are some complete muppets in the current cabinet such as Williamson and the damage is localised if significant.

    All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of agreeing that @Casino_Royale has hit the nail on the head. He is not a politician, he's actually a better person than that.

    He's a lawyer.

    I'm not sure that counts as being a better person :wink:

    His political ineptitude was, I think, best illustrated by his reaction to Labour's local election thrashing:

    1) Said he had lost touch with ordinary people - while being in a London office surrounded by boring books.

    2) Said he would take full responsibility and then tried to blame working class northern woman.
    His lack of political nous is easily overcome by surrounding himself with a team of Malcolm Tuckers. Absolute b******* who can stick the knife in without getting blood on Starmer's hands.

    I believe Dominic Cummings is free.
    Or Blair McDougall. Currently available, I believe, and tweeting shite. But that would be part of his job anyway, so one qualification ticked off.
  • Scott_xP said:

    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

    Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.
    First mention of Brexit on this thread? Stuart Dickson, famous Brexit supporter.

    Person to bring it up in response to unrelated points a number of times? Um.. you, you committed lover of Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
    Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

    Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

    On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
    And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,705
    DougSeal said:

    @MichaelPSenger
    Australia becomes the first advanced country to actually copy China's policy of sealing people into their rooms, locking hundreds of students in their rooms following a handful of positive COVID test results.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1426221818826813447

    Nothing that gives fuel to the antivaxxers more than stuff like this.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,474
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    One thing that would've helped, and also made sense, would've been Cameron insisting on an actual prospectus (EEA membership or not, etc) from the official Leave campaign. It remains bizarre this didn't happen as it would've been beneficial for the pro-EU side and also entirely legitimate.

    Another fantasy.
    Everything you post that is anti Brexit is a fantasy.
    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?
    We are not rejoining in my lifetime. I am resigned to that.

    I am happy to move on after Johnson's oven ready deal, and his border in the North Channel and Irish Sea. It is your boys who are crying foul over that chapter of Brexit, not me, nor Scott.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,934
    edited August 2021
    Just learnt a lot about memes from this article, something I haven't taken an interest in before.

    "Why the Left can’t meme
    'Woke comedy' will never compete with the despair of the online Right
    By Ed West"

    https://unherd.com/2021/08/why-the-left-cant-meme/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.
    Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.
    Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

    PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.
    Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

    Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.
    Morning all. The Yoons seem unusually grumpy on PB this morning. I won't ask. But here is a nice dead cat:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/aug/13/well-preserved-28000-year-old-lion-cub-found-in-siberian-permafrost

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,705
    edited August 2021
    DougSeal said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

    Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

    Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

    Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.
    Though that said, elsewhere on the Plague front...

    NSW Covid update: entire state in lockdown as premier warns ‘this is literally a war’

    Australian Medical Association says NSW health system ‘can no longer manage’ after record Delta case numbers


    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/14/nsw-covid-update-case-numbers-entire-state-in-lockdown-as-premier-gladys-berejiklian-warns-this-is-literally-a-war

    The consequences of Zero Covid running in tandem with something not very far off zero vaccination becoming abundantly clear, sadly.
    There’s two ways to have this pandemic, a messy beginning, or a messy end. Avoiding the mess completely is, however, not an option
    Denmark has had an excellent pandemic I think.

    Broadly have kept schools open
    Lowish death toll
    High vaccine uptake
    High testing
    Restrictions phased out sensibly.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
    Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

    Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

    On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
    And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.
    Shared reality, globally, is irretrievably breaking down. Shared identity is the first to go. I try not to have one.
  • Carnyx said:

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.
    Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.
    Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

    PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.
    Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

    Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.
    Morning all. The Yoons seem unusually grumpy on PB this morning. I won't ask. But here is a nice dead cat:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/aug/13/well-preserved-28000-year-old-lion-cub-found-in-siberian-permafrost

    Doesn't look very bouncy!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,474
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.
    I won't see it in my lifetime and I'm mid 50s. Although I'll almost certainly be killed in a motorcycle accident in the next 5-10 years.

    The most likely long term trajectory is the 6 counties back in via a united Ireland, Scotland fast tracked in to spite England. England and Wales gradually realign into a Norway type relationship with the EU.
    Once Scotland and NI have gone the impetus towards independence will be taken up here in Wales for independence too.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907
    pigeon said:

    Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,278
    I'm slightly mystified why Unionists in Scotland seem to have such a thing about travelling folk, from their nominal leader right down to these bottom feeders. I know they have a rich cornucopia of other bigotries to choose from but gypsies really seem to trigger them.

    https://twitter.com/Maureen6Johnson/status/1426312063207546882?s=20





  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907

    Carnyx said:

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.
    Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.
    Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

    PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.
    Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

    Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.
    Morning all. The Yoons seem unusually grumpy on PB this morning. I won't ask. But here is a nice dead cat:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/aug/13/well-preserved-28000-year-old-lion-cub-found-in-siberian-permafrost

    Doesn't look very bouncy!
    It's defrosted ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,911
    Starmer will stay, the only potential Labour leader who might do better is Burnham and he is not even in the Commons.

    When the Tories replaced IDS with Howard it made zero difference, Howard got 32% in 2005 ie almost exactly the same as IDS was polling in 2003
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.
    I won't see it in my lifetime and I'm mid 50s. Although I'll almost certainly be killed in a motorcycle accident in the next 5-10 years.

    The most likely long term trajectory is the 6 counties back in via a united Ireland, Scotland fast tracked in to spite England. England and Wales gradually realign into a Norway type relationship with the EU.
    Not that I like the accident bit, mind.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,278
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I am sure that @Quincel is right. Labour stuck by Corbyn, even when the vast majority of his MPs could see that he was a disaster and gave a vote of no confidence in him. SKS has clear and strong support amongst those MPs, even if he does not engender anything like the same level of fanaticism in the membership.

    The MPs support him because he is decent, intelligent, reasonably principled and not obviously subject to the same delusional mindset that Corbyn was. I personally think that he would be much better suited to being a PM than he is LOTO. I think opposing for the sake of it is not something that he is comfortable with; he is really uncomfortable with the sort of cheap shots and gimmicks that LOTOs have to indulge in to get attention, he is in many ways the epitome of the reasonable man.

    I would have been utterly horrified if someone with Corbyn's mindset had ever become our PM. I would be disappointed if SKS did but not overly alarmed or concerned. The incompetence of government would probably continue at a normal rate but would not increase exponentially. The competence and quality of his Shadow Cabinet is a bit of a concern but there are some complete muppets in the current cabinet such as Williamson and the damage is localised if significant.

    All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of agreeing that @Casino_Royale has hit the nail on the head. He is not a politician, he's actually a better person than that.

    He's a lawyer.

    I'm not sure that counts as being a better person :wink:

    His political ineptitude was, I think, best illustrated by his reaction to Labour's local election thrashing:

    1) Said he had lost touch with ordinary people - while being in a London office surrounded by boring books.

    2) Said he would take full responsibility and then tried to blame working class northern woman.
    His lack of political nous is easily overcome by surrounding himself with a team of Malcolm Tuckers. Absolute b******* who can stick the knife in without getting blood on Starmer's hands.

    I believe Dominic Cummings is free.
    Or Blair McDougall. Currently available, I believe, and tweeting shite. But that would be part of his job anyway, so one qualification ticked off.
    Don't think Blair has ever got over being the midwife of arguably the most influential phrase/concept of the last 10 years, Project Fear.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,031
    edited August 2021

    DougSeal said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
    Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?
    The one thing this is not is an obscure website and I was told yesterday that my post re Brentford scoring was quicker than BBC Sport live reporting

    However, there is a polarised and rather unpleasant constant recurring theme on Scotland's Independence and Brexit that is going nowhere

    I am not sure how old @StuartDickson is but I suspect he is not as old as myself, who encountered the same bitterness in the early 1950's when I lived in Berwick and when I say it is just plain tedious, posters can see how long I have listened to the debate and of course Berwick itself changed hands 13 times
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322
    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

    Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

    Yep, though mostly Scotland, Scotland, Scotland. Which never ends well.

    Supermarket shelves satisfyingly full and the Plague situation has stabilised, hence nothing else to drown out the usual futile mudslinging arguments.
    Though that said, elsewhere on the Plague front...

    NSW Covid update: entire state in lockdown as premier warns ‘this is literally a war’

    Australian Medical Association says NSW health system ‘can no longer manage’ after record Delta case numbers


    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/14/nsw-covid-update-case-numbers-entire-state-in-lockdown-as-premier-gladys-berejiklian-warns-this-is-literally-a-war

    The consequences of Zero Covid running in tandem with something not very far off zero vaccination becoming abundantly clear, sadly.
    There’s two ways to have this pandemic, a messy beginning, or a messy end. Avoiding the mess completely is, however, not an option
    Denmark has had an excellent pandemic I think.

    Broadly have kept schools open
    Lowish death toll
    High vaccine uptake
    High testing
    Restrictions phased out sensibly.
    Some have had better pandemics than others but no one has avoided the “mess” completely. Concur wholeheartedly with that list but there have been missteps too, the mink cull for example.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    Andy_JS said:

    Just learnt a lot about memes from this article, something I haven't taken an interest in before.

    "Why the Left can’t meme
    'Woke comedy' will never compete with the despair of the online Right
    By Ed West"

    https://unherd.com/2021/08/why-the-left-cant-meme/

    Maybe it's just my Twitter bubble, but the last few years of Corbynistas online would seem to provide a vast amount of counter-evidence to the idea that memes are the preserve of any one political movement.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    DougSeal said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
    Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

    Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

    On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
    And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.
    Shared reality, globally, is irretrievably breaking down. Shared identity is the first to go. I try not to have one.
    My immediate family has a wide range of identities. Essex, Kent, Lancashire, Wales, Thailand, New Zealand, Cornwall. There are positives and negatives for all of them, although I'm a bit dubious about Kent....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322
    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.
    All countries end eventually. The current borders of the U.K. having lasted 100 years is not a bad innings historically.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,237
    Scott_xP said:

    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

    Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.
    This is the key weakness of Brexit. The Leavers ‘won’ in 2016, but they’ve never been happy since. They never will be. The Revolution has been betrayed, the Revolution has not been implemented according to plan (which plan?), not enough anti-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough pseudo-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough counter-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, the foreigners are picking on us, nobody loves us, everybody hates us, let’s eat worms. The Revolution will never be complete.

    The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Mr. Seal, the abuse of language has reached the extent that people use the slogan Defund The Police and then claim it doesn't mean defunding the police. If that's false, they're liars, if it's true then they're literally opposing the precise meaning of the words they've chosen to use.

    Plenty of gay and lesbian people have also been pissed off by the BBC redefinition of homosexuality which now is about gender, not sex (ie biology), prioritising subjective perceptions over objective reality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,911
    edited August 2021

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Basic misconception, matters not a whit if anyone on here is persuaded or not.
    Ah, so you're just not bothering with the persuasive arguments that you could easily make.
    Hey, I’ve been told this very morn that the English aren’t bovvered. Don’t really see the point of persuading people who don’t have a vote, especially if they don’t care in the first place.

    PB’s main political function pour moi is a constant reminder of the the types whose votes have imposed Brexit, BJ and the Conservative & Peronist party on my country. Keeps one on one’s toes.
    Brexit, The Clown and Tory ministers can’t be on the media enough. Every single second of broadcast or sentence in print is a free advert for Scottish independence. I feel sorry for the SLDs and SLabbers, watching in horror as the Union is pissed down the drain.

    Or spaffed up the wall, as the Old Etonian puts it. Repulsive man.
    What utter rubbish, the latest Scottish independence poll has No on 52% excluding undecideds under Boris and after Brexit.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20

    Boris has also ruled out indyref2 for a generation so Unionists have nothing to fear from him.

    It is Nationalists who have to fear Sturgeon as she is not only seeing Yes behind in the polls despite Brexit, she has ruled out a wildcat referendum and UDI too. Hence more and more hardline Nats are moving to Alba in disgust at the FM
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907

    I'm slightly mystified why Unionists in Scotland seem to have such a thing about travelling folk, from their nominal leader right down to these bottom feeders. I know they have a rich cornucopia of other bigotries to choose from but gypsies really seem to trigger them.

    https://twitter.com/Maureen6Johnson/status/1426312063207546882?s=20





    Not exactly Romani or Shelta celebration day is it there?!

    Technically it's not clear to me that that tweeter does live in Scotland. 'She' might live a long way away in a tiny tax haven and be all for doing things differently from the tax haven next door, but when it comes to devolution, never mind independence, oh my ...!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322

    DougSeal said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
    Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

    Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

    On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
    And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.
    Shared reality, globally, is irretrievably breaking down. Shared identity is the first to go. I try not to have one.
    My immediate family has a wide range of identities. Essex, Kent, Lancashire, Wales, Thailand, New Zealand, Cornwall. There are positives and negatives for all of them, although I'm a bit dubious about Kent....
    When asked where I’m from I tend to say “Canterbury” instead of Kent. But I in all seriousness the loss of shared identities accross the world, accelerated by the rise of social media, is a problem. A big problem.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,278

    DougSeal said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
    Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?
    The one thing this is not is an obscure website and I was told yesterday that my post re Brentford scoring was quicker than BBC Sport live reporting

    However, there is a polarised and rather unpleasant constant recurring theme on Scotland's Independence and Brexit that is going nowhere

    I am not sure how old @StuartDickson is but I suspect he is not as old as myself, who encountered the same bitterness in the early 1950's when I lived in Berwick and when I say it is just plain tedious, posters can see how long I have listened to the debate and of course Berwick itself changed hands 13 times
    Lol, take that all you people saying PB is obscure!

    How can you say tedious, I can never get enough of hearing about your Scottish fisher folk connections.
  • Scott_xP said:

    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

    Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.
    This is the key weakness of Brexit. The Leavers ‘won’ in 2016, but they’ve never been happy since. They never will be. The Revolution has been betrayed, the Revolution has not been implemented according to plan (which plan?), not enough anti-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough pseudo-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough counter-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, the foreigners are picking on us, nobody loves us, everybody hates us, let’s eat worms. The Revolution will never be complete.

    The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.
    I'm a little worried that you're now projecting your plans for Indy Scotland on to Brexit supporters..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Mr. Dickson, the rampant incompetence of the negotiations to withdraw may be a rare area of agreement between most people in the UK, regardless of how they voted.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.
    All countries end eventually. The current borders of the U.K. having lasted 100 years is not a bad innings historically.
    Interesting comment! But on a PB pedantry the borders did change in 1972 - very, very substantially. I wonder if anyone remembers how?

  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
    Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

    Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

    On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
    And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.
    Of course it differs. I’ve done the weekly shop this morning. Tesco at north burns first for some of the beers they sell. Shelves full. Then the big Sainsbury’s at the local shopping centre. Shelves full. Last week some of the freezer aisles were empty. This week full. My local cost cutter I go to in the week.,never any shortages.

    The only shortages I have seen in the last two months was one week where there was no rice or pasta.


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.
    All countries end eventually. The current borders of the U.K. having lasted 100 years is not a bad innings historically.
    Thought-provoking and noteworthy post. The previous borders, of course lasted from 1803, when it was thought that the 'Irish Question' had been settled by unification.
    The only European countries that seem to have managed to be unchanged for a REALLY long time are surely Portugal, ever since it regained it's independence from Spain, and Spain itself, since the loss of Gibraltar.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,393
    Scott_xP said:

    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

    Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.
    Youre the one who drones constantly about it - except when you post fake Covid figures that make the EU look good. Remember those?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    DougSeal said:

    @MichaelPSenger
    Australia becomes the first advanced country to actually copy China's policy of sealing people into their rooms, locking hundreds of students in their rooms following a handful of positive COVID test results.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1426221818826813447

    A uni in Manchester did the same, with SIA goons forcibly not letting them leave.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Scott_xP said:

    One thing that would've helped, and also made sense, would've been Cameron insisting on an actual prospectus (EEA membership or not, etc) from the official Leave campaign. It remains bizarre this didn't happen as it would've been beneficial for the pro-EU side and also entirely legitimate.

    Another fantasy.
    Everything you post that is anti Brexit is a fantasy.
    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?
    Tony Blair said we need to get over it, get on with it, make a success of it and rejoin from a position of strength and he is correct.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,237

    DougSeal said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
    Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?
    The one thing this is not is an obscure website and I was told yesterday that my post re Brentford scoring was quicker than BBC Sport live reporting

    However, there is a polarised and rather unpleasant constant recurring theme on Scotland's Independence and Brexit that is going nowhere

    I am not sure how old @StuartDickson is but I suspect he is not as old as myself, who encountered the same bitterness in the early 1950's when I lived in Berwick and when I say it is just plain tedious, posters can see how long I have listened to the debate and of course Berwick itself changed hands 13 times
    Talking of Berwick, then Scotland’s main port, 15,000 people were murdered in the English massacre of the townsfolk. No monument had been raised in memory of the slain when this article was published in 2013. Has any been erected since? Have the Scots ever received an apology?

    https://www.berwickshirenews.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/andrew-marshall-berwick-massacre-must-be-remembered-too-2346683
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,911
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.
    I won't see it in my lifetime and I'm mid 50s. Although I'll almost certainly be killed in a motorcycle accident in the next 5-10 years.

    The most likely long term trajectory is the 6 counties back in via a united Ireland, Scotland fast tracked in to spite England. England and Wales gradually realign into a Norway type relationship with the EU.
    Nope, Unionist parties still win more votes than Nationalists in NI and Antrim will never accept rule by Dublin.

    No still ahead in Scotland and 40% of Scots say they would be less likely to vote for independence than now if it meant joining the Euro

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/07/support-independence-drops-significantly-scotland-set-join-euro/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555
    On Topic hopefully you are wrong otherwise a 5th successive defeat for Labour
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,400
    Fishing said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    Yes, I agree with that. Most English people only notice Scotland when it complains particularly loudly, or demands even more subsidies.
    Another ignoramus, go get educated dummy, we have been propping you up since the 70's.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    edited August 2021
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    It really isn’t at the moment. Inflation is still low and only increasing due to global commodity pricing and there are signs in the US it will plateau soon, or at least slow down, and in spite of the nonsensical scare stories there is still plenty of food in the shops. How is life becoming more difficult due to brexit. I have yet to see it.

    Diehard remainers who keep ranting about it will be treated like the angry drunk in the corner of the pub on their own getting angry about nothing
    Experience differs, doesn't it. My wife came back from our local Co-op yesterday remarking on several serious shortages...... inter alia fresh vegetables, and (possibly tongue in cheek) low calorie tonic water.

    Friends of mine who are Treasurers or Administrators of charities complain that the vestigial interest rates are reducing their ability to assist those they should. Before long I'm due to audit the books of a local charity, so I'll see for myself.

    On earlier points, how do I see myself. I'm British and European; I've had a DNA test done and most, although not all, of my ancestors have lived in these islands for many generations, although the physical records I have show that a hundred or so years ago one half spoke Welsh and the other, mostly, English.
    And I've lived in Essex most of my life, was educated with a significant input from Essex ratepayers and support the Essex cricket team.
    Of course it differs. I’ve done the weekly shop this morning. Tesco at north burns first for some of the beers they sell. Shelves full. Then the big Sainsbury’s at the local shopping centre. Shelves full. Last week some of the freezer aisles were empty. This week full. My local cost cutter I go to in the week.,never any shortages.

    The only shortages I have seen in the last two months was one week where there was no rice or pasta.

    My wife's frequent comment after shopping is that the shelves look full, but the stock has been 'padded out'. Thus instead of putting the jars of coffee four deep on the shelves, there are four side by side.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,400

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..
    My opinion on Scottish independence is that most people do not have one.
    Therefore an opinion.
    Good to have someone on who’s able to speak for most people, though ‘am I bovvered’ isn’t always the most convincing argument for not being bothered.
    This one is not too bright.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,233
    edited August 2021
    All political blogs are obscure. Some are less so than others but I guarantee most normal people dont know about Guido Fawkes or Labour List, let alone others.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,911
    edited August 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    "Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is planning a snap election for Sept. 20 to seek voter approval for the government's costly plans to combat COVID-19, four sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

    Trudeau is set to make the announcement on Sunday, said the sources, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation. Trudeau aides have said for months that the ruling Liberals would push for a vote before end-2021, two years ahead of schedule."

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-pm-trudeau-is-planning-call-snap-election-sept-20-sources-2021-08-12/

    Latest Canadian poll puts Trudeau's Liberals on 33%, the Conservatives on 28%, the NDP on 20%, the Greens on 7% and the BQ on 6%
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/recoil-effect-new-nanos-polling-shows-liberals-may-be-out-of-majority-territory-1.5546747
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,444
    edited August 2021

    I see PB has reverted to the well-worn themes of Brexit, Scottish independence and Starmer's prospects.

    Do I take it from this that nobody's seen any empty shelves in supermarkets recently?

    I can report that Waitrose in Harborough has 2 sorts of flaked parmesan, organic and regular. There were a few gaps on shelves, but idiosyncratic so no Waitrose basmati but branded stuff was there.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.
    All countries end eventually. The current borders of the U.K. having lasted 100 years is not a bad innings historically.
    Thought-provoking and noteworthy post. The previous borders, of course lasted from 1803, when it was thought that the 'Irish Question' had been settled by unification.
    The only European countries that seem to have managed to be unchanged for a REALLY long time are surely Portugal, ever since it regained it's independence from Spain, and Spain itself, since the loss of Gibraltar.
    Two books shaped my current political thinking. “Vanished Kingdoms” by Norman Davies that showed me that countries end, all of them, eventually, and “The Politics of Social Ecology: Libertarian Municipalism” by Janet Biehl and Murray Bookchin which has led me to think that the basic political unit should be the municipality, not the nation state. My basic problem with Scottish Independence is that it doesn’t go far enough.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,237

    Scott_xP said:

    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

    Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.
    This is the key weakness of Brexit. The Leavers ‘won’ in 2016, but they’ve never been happy since. They never will be. The Revolution has been betrayed, the Revolution has not been implemented according to plan (which plan?), not enough anti-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough pseudo-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough counter-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, the foreigners are picking on us, nobody loves us, everybody hates us, let’s eat worms. The Revolution will never be complete.

    The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.
    I'm a little worried that you're now projecting your plans for Indy Scotland on to Brexit supporters..
    65 countries have gained independence from the United Kingdom. How many have had notable post-independence campaigns to rejoin? None afaiaa. Scotland will be no different.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_that_have_gained_independence_from_the_United_Kingdom

    Brexit will never end.
    Scottish independence will happen and then both countries will move on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,444
    edited August 2021

    Mr. Dickson, the rampant incompetence of the negotiations to withdraw may be a rare area of agreement between most people in the UK, regardless of how they voted.

    Yes, even the PM and Frostie agree that the oven ready deal is crap. There is the beginnings of national consensus on this. Strangely no taking of responsibility though...
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Most people just want to get on with their lives.

    And Brexit is making it more difficult and expensive than it was previously.

    Which is why we will still be talking about it for the next decade (at least)
    My guesstimate is five decades. After all, the heid jobs banged on about it incessantly 1973-present.
    I won't see it in my lifetime and I'm mid 50s. Although I'll almost certainly be killed in a motorcycle accident in the next 5-10 years.

    The most likely long term trajectory is the 6 counties back in via a united Ireland, Scotland fast tracked in to spite England. England and Wales gradually realign into a Norway type relationship with the EU.
    Once Scotland and NI have gone the impetus towards independence will be taken up here in Wales for independence too.
    Wales is in a tricky position, independence-wise. Scotland is big enough to go it alone and is just off continental Europe. Northern Ireland can fold into a unified Ireland. Welsh nationalism, though, as Alex Salmond observed, is more of a cultural than an economic movement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,233

    On Topic hopefully you are wrong otherwise a 5th successive defeat for Labour

    Granted that would be due to unusually condensed election periods, but still not good. It will be tough, the tories can afford to go backwards quite s bit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,237

    Mr. Dickson, the rampant incompetence of the negotiations to withdraw may be a rare area of agreement between most people in the UK, regardless of how they voted.

    Not sure the prime minister agrees with you. After all, the deal was oven baked and ready for consumption accord to him. Shame the meat was rancid.
  • Scott_xP said:

    We are not rejoining anytime soon..why all the angst about it.?

    Ask the winners who won't shut up about it.
    This is the key weakness of Brexit. The Leavers ‘won’ in 2016, but they’ve never been happy since. They never will be. The Revolution has been betrayed, the Revolution has not been implemented according to plan (which plan?), not enough anti-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough pseudo-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, not enough counter-Revolutionaries have been guillotined, the foreigners are picking on us, nobody loves us, everybody hates us, let’s eat worms. The Revolution will never be complete.

    The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.
    I'm a little worried that you're now projecting your plans for Indy Scotland on to Brexit supporters..
    65 countries have gained independence from the United Kingdom. How many have had notable post-independence campaigns to rejoin? None afaiaa. Scotland will be no different.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_that_have_gained_independence_from_the_United_Kingdom

    Brexit will never end.
    Scottish independence will happen and then both countries will move on.
    Scottish Independence - the cleanest break EVER. We promise.

    Hmmm..

    I think you might need to add some meat to the bones of that argument.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,400

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..
    More like he is one rather than having one.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Dr. Foxy, the PM does not understand the concept of responsibility for one's actions. He's a damned fool and we'll all be better off when he's replaced.

    Unless by it someone like Corbyn.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,907

    DougSeal said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
    Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?
    The one thing this is not is an obscure website and I was told yesterday that my post re Brentford scoring was quicker than BBC Sport live reporting

    However, there is a polarised and rather unpleasant constant recurring theme on Scotland's Independence and Brexit that is going nowhere

    I am not sure how old @StuartDickson is but I suspect he is not as old as myself, who encountered the same bitterness in the early 1950's when I lived in Berwick and when I say it is just plain tedious, posters can see how long I have listened to the debate and of course Berwick itself changed hands 13 times
    Talking of Berwick, then Scotland’s main port, 15,000 people were murdered in the English massacre of the townsfolk. No monument had been raised in memory of the slain when this article was published in 2013. Has any been erected since? Have the Scots ever received an apology?

    https://www.berwickshirenews.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/andrew-marshall-berwick-massacre-must-be-remembered-too-2346683
    I'd have heard about it from my connections there if there had been a monument and gone to look at it if so. Nothing. Though they still have this one:

    https://openplaques.org/plaques/10798

    If Mr Marshall is the one I anm thinking of, he's a local chap, native and very keen on promoting Berwick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,233
    Foxy said:

    Mr. Dickson, the rampant incompetence of the negotiations to withdraw may be a rare area of agreement between most people in the UK, regardless of how they voted.

    Yes, even the PM and Frostie agree that the oven ready deal is crap. There is the beginnings of national consensus on this. Strangely no taking of responsibility though...
    In politics responsibility is something forced on you, not willingly taken.

    Not always unreasonably as opponents will always seek to make you be responsible even if not your fault, but it therefore makes claiming credit harder too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,444

    On Topic hopefully you are wrong otherwise a 5th successive defeat for Labour

    Getting behind Keir? Well done BJO.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,400

    Have the Scot Nats on here ever tried making a persuasive argument for independence, or have they always just called unionists "lickspittles" and hoped that that would do the job?

    Many times you sarcastic halfwitted tumshie. Why don't you start sending me your wages every week and I will decide what they are spent on , I will even send you back a few pounds that you can spend on what you want rather than what I think you should want.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322
    malcolmg said:

    Fishing said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    Yes, I agree with that. Most English people only notice Scotland when it complains particularly loudly, or demands even more subsidies.
    Another ignoramus, go get educated dummy, we have been propping you up since the 70's.
    I don’t know why you are so angry, Malc, and I don’t need to. What I can tell, though, is that you are clearly suffering and constantly reaching out with your nastiness to get some attention. Well, you certainly have mine. You have my attention and concern and my hand is reached out to you in prayer that whatever makes you so angry ends soon. I don’t have to know your needs to ask whatever higher power you believe in to heal your damaged soul and surround you in the love you so obviously need.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    Things that people keep predicting which stubbornly refuse to happen:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Things that people will still be predicting in twenty years' time and still won't have happened:

    The collapse of the Euro
    The collapse of the UK
    The collapse of house prices

    Well, the collapse of the UK is certainly happening. NI, remember? Not to mention what happened a hundred years ago.
    All countries end eventually. The current borders of the U.K. having lasted 100 years is not a bad innings historically.
    Thought-provoking and noteworthy post. The previous borders, of course lasted from 1803, when it was thought that the 'Irish Question' had been settled by unification.
    The only European countries that seem to have managed to be unchanged for a REALLY long time are surely Portugal, ever since it regained it's independence from Spain, and Spain itself, since the loss of Gibraltar.
    Two books shaped my current political thinking. “Vanished Kingdoms” by Norman Davies that showed me that countries end, all of them, eventually, and “The Politics of Social Ecology: Libertarian Municipalism” by Janet Biehl and Murray Bookchin which has led me to think that the basic political unit should be the municipality, not the nation state. My basic problem with Scottish Independence is that it doesn’t go far enough.
    It was someone on here that pointed me towards Vanished Kingdoms, and it was indeed thought-provoking. I'm especially reminded of it when political commentators talk about states and boundaries in the area between the Rhine and the Volga. And I know there's considerable doubt over Koestler's The Thirteenth Tribe, but it does point up the significant historical population movements between the Caucasus and the Vistula.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited August 2021

    DougSeal said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Sweden’s own Sassanach expert chimes in about “English voters” yet again. A man who knows nothing and projects it into this board every day. Port guy. As I said yesterday, get a job, a hobby, anything. This malevolence is eating your soul you poor man.
    Latching onto posts by particular posters on an obscure website seems to fill in a bit of time, maybe Stuart could take that up?
    The one thing this is not is an obscure website and I was told yesterday that my post re Brentford scoring was quicker than BBC Sport live reporting

    However, there is a polarised and rather unpleasant constant recurring theme on Scotland's Independence and Brexit that is going nowhere

    I am not sure how old @StuartDickson is but I suspect he is not as old as myself, who encountered the same bitterness in the early 1950's when I lived in Berwick and when I say it is just plain tedious, posters can see how long I have listened to the debate and of course Berwick itself changed hands 13 times
    Talking of Berwick, then Scotland’s main port, 15,000 people were murdered in the English massacre of the townsfolk. No monument had been raised in memory of the slain when this article was published in 2013. Has any been erected since? Have the Scots ever received an apology?

    https://www.berwickshirenews.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/andrew-marshall-berwick-massacre-must-be-remembered-too-2346683
    I believe the Scots also had dogs in this fight

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rathlin_Island_massacre

    Good Ole Sir Francis
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