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Rishi v Boris: Who would make the better PM by English region – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 10 in General
imageRishi v Boris: Who would make the better PM by English region – politicalbetting.com

Just about the only polling that looks views of Sunak against Johnson is the above regular question in the Redfield & Wilton poll.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    Test
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348
    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    edited August 10

    Mean, why not tell us what Mr J scored in Scotland? Or Wales and NI?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited August 10
    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now anyway. Though Sunak might limit Tory losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    Carnyx said:


    Mean, why not tell us what Mr J scored in Scotland? Or Wales and NI?

    Sometimes, we omit outliers. Particularly if they make the graph look untidy by making all the other bars tiny (the public struggle with log scales) :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited August 10
    Carnyx said:


    Mean, why not tell us what Mr J scored in Scotland? Or Wales and NI?

    As the Tories only have 6 seats in Scotland, 0 in NI and Labour still have most seats in Wales.

    Labour will only get in by winning Tory seats in England, the SNP will prop up Labour anyway
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    An extremely favourable chart for Boris considering where the marginals are.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited August 10
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    Yes Cornwall too, although it was also solid Leave like the Red Wall.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:


    Mean, why not tell us what Mr J scored in Scotland? Or Wales and NI?

    As the Tories only have 6 seats in Scotland, 0 in NI and Labour still have most seats in Wales.

    Labour will only get in by winning Tory seats in England, the SNP will prop up Labour anyway
    I talk about salmon and you talk about the same old herring you do every day.

    You are always telling us how much the Scots love Mr J. I was looking forward to seeing verification.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    The contrast between the SW and the East is interesting. I would have expected them to be very similar.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    I'm astonished the SW beats out the Midlands. It's true blue, of course, but it's never felt massively Borisian to me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    Yes Cornwall too, although it was also solid Leave like the Red Wall.
    And, I believe, regrets doing so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    Yes Cornwall too, although it was also solid Leave like the Red Wall.
    And, I believe, regrets doing so.
    Clearly not given every Cornish MP is Tory and Boris' best region relative to Sunak is the SW
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    One question, how large are the samples for each region. You'd need a large(ish) poll for each region to be statistically valid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:


    Mean, why not tell us what Mr J scored in Scotland? Or Wales and NI?

    As the Tories only have 6 seats in Scotland, 0 in NI and Labour still have most seats in Wales.

    Labour will only get in by winning Tory seats in England, the SNP will prop up Labour anyway
    I talk about salmon and you talk about the same old herring you do every day.

    You are always telling us how much the Scots love Mr J. I was looking forward to seeing verification.
    Scots' opinion on Boris is irrelevant.

    He is UK PM not Scottish PM and as long as he remains PM he can also refuse a legal indyref2.

    Scots' opinion on Starmer might be relevant as he will need Scottish MPs support to become PM, Boris however was elected UK PM with an 80 seat majority despite losing in Scotland
  • Cases up again. We are losing.
  • Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    Nobody likes Khan, despite the fact he got elected again.

    So we can conclude then that nobody liked BoJo either, thanks for playing.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    Interesting. My friend's Cornish wife was the same. I wondered if it's because there's something of the farmer - something of the hayloft - about him.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    The contrast between the SW and the East is interesting. I would have expected them to be very similar.
    The East surrounds London. I guess the population skews towards the commuter belt, whereas the South East, which surrounds London on the other side, has more population outside of the London catchment area.

    But then I do wonder about the sample sizes so perhaps the difference between East and South East is just noise.
  • MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
  • Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Leon doesn't understand London, that much is obviously clear.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
    I've been on a train for 4 hours and its been about 90% masks on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    The contrast between the SW and the East is interesting. I would have expected them to be very similar.
    The East surrounds London. I guess the population skews towards the commuter belt, whereas the South East, which surrounds London on the other side, has more population outside of the London catchment area.

    But then I do wonder about the sample sizes so perhaps the difference between East and South East is just noise.
    Most of the London commuter belt is in the SE not the East, only Essex and Hertfordshire are in the London commuter belt in the East.

    The East also had a bigger Leave vote so slightly odd figures, though there is a significant British Asian community in Essex and Hertfordshire and Cambridge which may favour Sunak over Boris
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    Deaths would have to rise very significantly to justify further legal restrictions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    FPT, for @rcs1000
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    The bonkers thing is that the govt won't accept an NHS test taken abroad before you return as proof that you have tested negative. The NHS which we know and love and all clapped for is deemed as not able to provide a test for return to the UK.

    Of course we know it's because people will lie like cheap naafi watches if they have to self-certify with a brought-along test but even still.

    If you think thats bad, try getting the NHS to understand that you got vaccinated abroad. Even if it’s with one of they vaccines they’re using, they still don’t seem to understand.
    Really? That's disappointing.
    Oh yes. UAE is now on the UK Amber list, rather than the Red list with compulsory hotel quarantine.

    BUT:

    Vaccinated in UK = No quarantine on return, only a couple of tests.

    Vaccinated in UAE, with Pfizer vaccine = Required to quarantine for 10 days in UK, at nominated address.

    I can assume that other Amber list countries face the same issue, especially with expatriates.

    Emirates Airline seem quite pleased about being off the red list though, this ad is going viral online and about to hit UK TV screens.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=uQHhYRuaEtM
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    edited August 10

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
    The reality is that is barely tinkering around the edges vs delta variant as an effective policy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    The big PB question, from the end of the last thread. What’s @TOPPING’s epic next post going to be?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
    Yes, I'm sure under 25s would be going to bars and clubs in their masks if it was mandated. That's the activity which is pushing the R over 1 (see the age breakdown graphs).
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
    Yes, I'm sure under 25s would be going to bars and clubs in their masks if it was mandated. That's the activity which is pushing the R over 1 (see the age breakdown graphs).
    The next thing I was going to say was closing nightclubs down.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,225
    edited August 10

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
    As a matter of interest do you know the figures from each administration as Scotland and Wales do require mandatory masks on transport and in shops and if they were an issue it should show in these figures
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,681
    kle4 said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
    Doubt Khan is particularly liked - very few people I know, including Labour voters, have much good to say about him. But he is Labour and that is a big advantage in London.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,971
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Well, he won - but he also only got 40% in the first round, not miles ahead of Shaun Bailey, and well down on 2016. Boris got a higher first round vote in both 2008 and 2012.

    The trouble is a clothes-peg on the nose vote counts just as much as one made enthusiastically.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
    Doubt Khan is particularly liked - very few people I know, including Labour voters, have much good to say about him. But he is Labour and that is a big advantage in London.
    Yes, his achievement was in getting his party’s nomination. London is now stuck with his mismanagement, until the party decide they need a change.
  • MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
    Doubt Khan is particularly liked - very few people I know, including Labour voters, have much good to say about him. But he is Labour and that is a big advantage in London.
    Why ignore opinion polls and election results mate when you can just go on feelings? Come on, you can do better than that
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742
    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
    Doubt Khan is particularly liked - very few people I know, including Labour voters, have much good to say about him. But he is Labour and that is a big advantage in London.
    Yes, his achievement was in getting his party’s nomination. London is now stuck with his mismanagement, until the party decide they need a change.
    No, I think the election showed that a better Tory candidate would have beaten Sadiq. Bailey was a moron and still managed to run him much closer than expected. Sadiq just doesn't inspire anyone. People voted for him because Bailey was an idiot and there was no other serious candidate. Rory Stewart running as the Tory in 2025 would win IMO.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,225
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
    Yes, I'm sure under 25s would be going to bars and clubs in their masks if it was mandated. That's the activity which is pushing the R over 1 (see the age breakdown graphs).
    The Welsh and Scottish news last night both showed the opening of the nightclubs by the devolved administrations and to be honest it looked like a huge spreader event among those unvaccinated

    Indeed it was quite worrying but then Sturgeon and Drakeford know best
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,738
    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
    Doubt Khan is particularly liked - very few people I know, including Labour voters, have much good to say about him. But he is Labour and that is a big advantage in London.
    Why ignore opinion polls and election results mate when you can just go on feelings? Come on, you can do better than that
    Can't say I can see the appeal of either, but aim happy to accept some people like them. Not many both, though.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
    Doubt Khan is particularly liked - very few people I know, including Labour voters, have much good to say about him. But he is Labour and that is a big advantage in London.
    Yes, his achievement was in getting his party’s nomination. London is now stuck with his mismanagement, until the party decide they need a change.
    No, I think the election showed that a better Tory candidate would have beaten Sadiq. Bailey was a moron and still managed to run him much closer than expected. Sadiq just doesn't inspire anyone. People voted for him because Bailey was an idiot and there was no other serious candidate. Rory Stewart running as the Tory in 2025 would win IMO.
    TFL is now such a basket case that I'm not sure it would be fixed in time to make London Mayor in 2024 an appetising choice.

    Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
    Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.

    Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.

    He was a billion times better than the twat Sadiq khan. He just was. No one likes khan. He’s pointless. Many Londoners look back on Boris (and Ken) fondly. No one will reminisce nostalgically about khan
    We can argue about objective merit, but when it comes to popularity we should be clear that Boris won his elections with 53.2% and 51.5% of the final votes compared to Khan's wins of 56.8% and 55.2%.

    Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
    Bailey did better than many expected it seems, but as a non londoner it seems pretty clear that Khan is sufficiently liked to be pretty comfortable.
    Doubt Khan is particularly liked - very few people I know, including Labour voters, have much good to say about him. But he is Labour and that is a big advantage in London.
    Yes, his achievement was in getting his party’s nomination. London is now stuck with his mismanagement, until the party decide they need a change.
    No, I think the election showed that a better Tory candidate would have beaten Sadiq. Bailey was a moron and still managed to run him much closer than expected. Sadiq just doesn't inspire anyone. People voted for him because Bailey was an idiot and there was no other serious candidate. Rory Stewart running as the Tory in 2025 would win IMO.
    Yes, the Tories need to choose a good candidate early, perhaps from the Assembly, and have them an an unofficial LotO spending all day every day critising the Mayor.

    Rory undoubtedly appeals to Londoners, but would there be too much friction against the government? Boris can trash Khan all he likes, but can’t trash a Rory when he’s saying something completely different to government policy.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    eek said:



    TFL is now such a basket case that I'm not sure it would be fixed in time to make London Mayor in 2024 an appetising choice.

    Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,

    Actually it's worth pointing out that the fixed data for the next London Mayoral election is 2nd May 2024.

    Which opens up an interesting question, would Boris or whoever is PM want all elections on the same day or may he prefer to hold the general election in late October / November 2023 after the new electoral boundaries have been created.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    eek said:

    eek said:



    TFL is now such a basket case that I'm not sure it would be fixed in time to make London Mayor in 2024 an appetising choice.

    Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,

    Actually it's worth pointing out that the fixed data for the next London Mayoral election is 2nd May 2024.

    Which opens up an interesting question, would Boris or whoever is PM want all elections on the same day or may he prefer to hold the general election in late October / November 2023 after the new electoral boundaries have been created.
    IMO the govt are looking at October 2023. They need the new boundaries in place, but don’t want to go the full five year term.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Lol. This cannot be coincidence
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    Mandatory masks indoors would be a good starting point, especially on public transport.
    Yes, I'm sure under 25s would be going to bars and clubs in their masks if it was mandated. That's the activity which is pushing the R over 1 (see the age breakdown graphs).
    The next thing I was going to say was closing nightclubs down.
    To what end? Anyone who is at risk of dying has been able to get a vaccine for months. If they have chosen not to do so it's on them. What you're saying is that vaccines aren't enough to reopen society in full.
    Hmmmmmmm.....

    image
    image
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    eek said:

    eek said:



    TFL is now such a basket case that I'm not sure it would be fixed in time to make London Mayor in 2024 an appetising choice.

    Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,

    Actually it's worth pointing out that the fixed data for the next London Mayoral election is 2nd May 2024.

    Which opens up an interesting question, would Boris or whoever is PM want all elections on the same day or may he prefer to hold the general election in late October / November 2023 after the new electoral boundaries have been created.
    I think they'll go for autumn 2023, and the London Mayoral election is probably a good additional reason for this. Turnout at the GE will be higher, so it's probably easier for the Tories to win the Mayoralty at a standalone election.

    Though I suppose you'd want to do a detailed comparison to be sure. Maybe the difference in turnout is mainly in the outer London Tory boroughs and the opposite would be true.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,971
    FPT - I don't want to comment too much on individual posters but on Alistair I think his issue was with the way the Brexit vote was won, not its case in principle.

    Anyone who disagreed then had the Curse of Cain upon them, as far as he was concerned, and he would deliberately provoke, and then it could get personal. That never changed even after nearly 5 years.

    Throughout (and still today) I have perfectly civil discussions with him on betting opportunities, so I now confine my discussions with him to those alone.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,714
    edited August 10
    HYUFD said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    Cases are irrelevant.

    It is deaths and hospitalisations that matter and they are far below where they were six months ago.

    We will never eliminate Covid cases, we just have to live with it, though the double vaccinated tend to be less prone to catch it as well as being far less likely to be hospitalised
    The figure for Covid deaths is currently running at 88.9 per day (averaged over 7 days). While still well below the peak of 6 months ago, it is the highest it's been since 19 March and it is still rising, albeit slowly. In terms of cumulative Covid deaths, the UK is among the more poorly performing countries in Europe, and England has suffered more than the rest of the UK.

    image
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,260
    While the ratio of hospitalisation and death to cases is of course very much diminished, I think it is going too far to say that case numbers no longer matter.

    They still give an advanced warning of what is heading towards the hospitals, and ultimately if case numbers go through the roof the NHS will still be buggered.

    I'm not one of those saying that we need to tighten restrictions now, but the models must indicate a case rate trigger point when action is needed. Hopefully we never reach that point.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Cuomo quits
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,738
    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
    Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
    Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.

    Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,194
    HYUFD said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    Cases are irrelevant.

    It is deaths and hospitalisations that matter and they are far below where they were six months ago.

    We will never eliminate Covid cases, we just have to live with it, though the double vaccinated tend to be less prone to catch it as well as being far less likely to be hospitalised
    One of my work colleagues is slowly recovering from Delta

    Late 30's - caught watching the footie final with friends

    Everyone present caught it - from less than 2 years old to 60's

    He has had 2 hospital stays - They told him he was lucky he was double jabbed or things would have been worse
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    I was thinking of cutting my toenails this evening.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    edited August 10

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    23,510 cases compared to 25,161 yesterday, and 21,691 a week ago.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

    We've reached 75% of adults having had 2 doses.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742

    While the ratio of hospitalisation and death to cases is of course very much diminished, I think it is going too far to say that case numbers no longer matter.

    They still give an advanced warning of what is heading towards the hospitals, and ultimately if case numbers go through the roof the NHS will still be buggered.

    I'm not one of those saying that we need to tighten restrictions now, but the models must indicate a case rate trigger point when action is needed. Hopefully we never reach that point.

    But the point is that we've vaccinated as many people as possible, we've got booster doses coming. If that's not enough for a completely open society then what are we going to do? Constant lockdowns? Christmas cancelled forever? Everyone locked up from November to February? I don't understand this mentality of even thinking about any restrictions post-vaccine. Either they are enough or they aren't. If they aren't then we need a completely different answer to lockdowns because we'll be doing it forever.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,194
    TOPPING said:

    I was thinking of cutting my toenails this evening.

    Exciting life you lead :smiley:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    "In my mind, I've never crossed the line with anyone, but I didn't realise the extent to which the line has been redrawn"

    New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says he "truly offended women" and "for that, I deeply deeply apologise", adding "I take full responsibility for my actions"
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1425127147472134149/video/1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    edited August 10
    Absolutely delighted to see Yorkshire closer in sentiment to London than to the oddball Midlands or "dueling banjos" Cornwall.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    Scott_xP said:

    Cuomo quits

    Whoa, that’s news. Finally…
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348
    eek said:

    TFL is now such a basket case that I'm not sure it would be fixed in time to make London Mayor in 2024 an appetising choice.

    Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,

    TFL are no more or less a basket case than any other passenger transport provider. With Tube passenger numbers only half what they were pre-Covid and at 5% at spells during last year, it's little wonder the service is losing money.

    The Government, as part of its bailout, insisted TFL ran a full service whereas you could argue if you only have half the number of passengers, the off-peak weekday services, in particular, could have been curtailed. The same has been true of national rail services - maintenance of normal services was and is a condition of continued Government financial support.

    As for Sadiq Khan, he's beaten Zak Goldsmith and Shaun Bailey - as they say in horse racing "you can only beat what's put in front of you". I think any Conservative candidate would have struggled in 2016 - as for this year, Bailey did do much better than the polls suggested - indeed, the LD vote was dismal compared with what some of the polling was expecting. I'm not sure what happened on the day but Bailey did much better in west London than I was expecting.

    The fact remains he lost 55-45 on transfers which is a little better than Goldsmith who lost 57-43. That said, in the aftermath of what was a poor GE in London for the Conservatives in 2019 (the only seat they lost to Labour in the whole election was Putney), it's a signal the 2022 local elections may be of considerable interest.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    edited August 10
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
    Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
    Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.

    Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
    The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.

    Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere and claimed on expenses, and have no understanding of those on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    edited August 10
    Now Cuomo is disgraced, he is properly qualified for a run at POTUS.....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    stodge said:

    eek said:

    TFL is now such a basket case that I'm not sure it would be fixed in time to make London Mayor in 2024 an appetising choice.

    Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,

    TFL are no more or less a basket case than any other passenger transport provider. With Tube passenger numbers only half what they were pre-Covid and at 5% at spells during last year, it's little wonder the service is losing money.

    The Government, as part of its bailout, insisted TFL ran a full service whereas you could argue if you only have half the number of passengers, the off-peak weekday services, in particular, could have been curtailed. The same has been true of national rail services - maintenance of normal services was and is a condition of continued Government financial support.

    As for Sadiq Khan, he's beaten Zak Goldsmith and Shaun Bailey - as they say in horse racing "you can only beat what's put in front of you". I think any Conservative candidate would have struggled in 2016 - as for this year, Bailey did do much better than the polls suggested - indeed, the LD vote was dismal compared with what some of the polling was expecting. I'm not sure what happened on the day but Bailey did much better in west London than I was expecting.

    The fact remains he lost 55-45 on transfers which is a little better than Goldsmith who lost 57-43. That said, in the aftermath of what was a poor GE in London for the Conservatives in 2019 (the only seat they lost to Labour in the whole election was Putney), it's a signal the 2022 local elections may be of considerable interest.

    Yes, people need to be careful not to confuse Bailey doing much better than expected with Bailey doing well. He got basically the same result as Goldsmith with only a slightly closer margin - he was just expected to be the worst Tory performance ever.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461

    The reality of delta variant is if you are unvaccinated, you are getting it. If you are vaccinated you may still get it, but far far less likely to be seriously ill or die.

    There isn't much more to it. No amount of mask wearing or opening a gym but not a pub etc is going to make much difference.

    The only other option, is border permanently closed, instant total lockdown when a few cases arise. And remember NZers who now leave can't get back in until Feb at the earliest. All quarantine hotel capacity is totally booked up.

    That's basically the equation. Outside of medical situation (where exposes to covid at high levels day in day out), most of everything else is performative on a countrywide basis, as long as we have society at least somewhat open.

    So Tegnall was right all along?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    Cuomo resigns.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
    Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
    Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.

    Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
    The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.

    Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere, and are not on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
    Railways and city-based hospitality are there to serve the public.

    The public is not there to serve railways and city-based hospitality.

    If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749

    I see we are back to anecdotal stories about I know somebody who got it despite been jabbed etc etc etc.

    Not to downplay that unfortunately people will get it, some will get it bad, but we don't do this for any other disease. We all know somebody who got cancer, had a terrible heart attack etc etc etc, with doctors saying they had a lucky escape there, and we don't then run into the fall out shelter.

    Humans are terrible at assessing risk and fixate on the horror stories e.g. why people are shit scared of shark attacks, despite you having basically no risk of actually suffering on, in comparison to getting in their car every day (and many being very naughty and driving at speed).

    What we need to see is the latest data on how the vaccines are holding up. The last time it all looked bang in line with the initial PHE estimates with well into the 90% reduction in hospitalization, and nothing like the initial scare data from Israel. The US is also looking good at the moment in terms of among the vaccinated.

    For most people who are vaccinated, being exposed to the virus is just like getting a booster.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,348
    Sandpit said:

    <
    The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.

    Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere and claimed on expenses, and have no understanding of those on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.

    WFH will be even more popular in the autumn when the days get shorter, the weather deteriorates and the children are safely back at school.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,260
    MaxPB said:

    While the ratio of hospitalisation and death to cases is of course very much diminished, I think it is going too far to say that case numbers no longer matter.

    They still give an advanced warning of what is heading towards the hospitals, and ultimately if case numbers go through the roof the NHS will still be buggered.

    I'm not one of those saying that we need to tighten restrictions now, but the models must indicate a case rate trigger point when action is needed. Hopefully we never reach that point.

    But the point is that we've vaccinated as many people as possible, we've got booster doses coming. If that's not enough for a completely open society then what are we going to do? Constant lockdowns? Christmas cancelled forever? Everyone locked up from November to February? I don't understand this mentality of even thinking about any restrictions post-vaccine. Either they are enough or they aren't. If they aren't then we need a completely different answer to lockdowns because we'll be doing it forever.
    We think that vaccination is enough, and so far we are holding the line. However, if the virus runs through the population at a rate of knots, then some action to "flatten the sombrero" may be required.

    If this is a continuation of WFH, masks on trains and in Tesco or closing nightclubs again then so be it.

    Having patients die because they couldn't access the critical care they need is a scenario we need to avoid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    edited August 10

    The reality of delta variant is if you are unvaccinated, you are getting it. If you are vaccinated you may still get it, but far far less likely to be seriously ill or die.

    There isn't much more to it. No amount of mask wearing or opening a gym but not a pub etc is going to make much difference.

    The only other option, is border permanently closed, instant total lockdown when a few cases arise. And remember NZers who now leave can't get back in until Feb at the earliest. All quarantine hotel capacity is totally booked up.

    That's basically the equation. Outside of medical situation (where exposes to covid at high levels day in day out), most of everything else is performative on a countrywide basis, as long as we have society at least somewhat open.

    So Tegnall was right all along?
    The Swedish approach was all predicated on the belief that no effective vaccine would be developed for 2-3 years at the minimum. And thus the thought that hard lockdown was just can kicking exercise.

    It was also the belief that you could segment those in society into at risk and not at risk. Which I think we have seen isn't really possible until you totally reshape society and ask people who interact with the risky to totally cut themselves off from the rest of the world i.e. care staff living in the care facility full time.

    We are now in a world where you are can kicking if you think you can just avoid ever coming into contact with somebody with COVID your whole life.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,177
    edited August 10
    TOPPING said:

    I was thinking of cutting my toenails this evening.

    An activity in which a mask might come in useful.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    The contrast between the SW and the East is interesting. I would have expected them to be very similar.
    The East surrounds London. I guess the population skews towards the commuter belt, whereas the South East, which surrounds London on the other side, has more population outside of the London catchment area.

    But then I do wonder about the sample sizes so perhaps the difference between East and South East is just noise.
    Most of the London commuter belt is in the SE not the East, only Essex and Hertfordshire are in the London commuter belt in the East.

    The East also had a bigger Leave vote so slightly odd figures, though there is a significant British Asian community in Essex and Hertfordshire and Cambridge which may favour Sunak over Boris
    Cambridge has a 4.9% Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi population v. an average for England of 5.5%.

    I think you've been misled by the 3.6% Chinese population v. 0.7% in England being lumped together in the "Asian" ethnicity category.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    TOPPING said:

    I was thinking of cutting my toenails this evening.

    Thanks for letting us know.
  • Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
    Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
    Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.

    Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
    The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.

    Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere, and are not on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
    Railways and city-based hospitality are there to serve the public.

    The public is not there to serve railways and city-based hospitality.

    If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.
    Railways are there to serve shareholders, that is what private business entails.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    stodge said:

    Sandpit said:

    <
    The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.

    Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere and claimed on expenses, and have no understanding of those on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.

    WFH will be even more popular in the autumn when the days get shorter, the weather deteriorates and the children are safely back at school.
    Indeed, and when companies realise they can downsize massive and expensive city-centre offices, and most employees will be open to pragmatic discussions around pay and hours, productivity is going to go through the roof in places that accept hybrid working.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,260
    kinabalu said:

    Absolutely delighted to see Yorkshire closer in sentiment to London than to the oddball Midlands or "dueling banjos" Cornwall.

    Sunak representing a Yorkshire seat may have a bearing.

    I suppose that one thing Yorkshire and London have in common is the sense that nothing outside of their boundaries is worth bothering with. Each as parochial as the other.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743



    If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.

    The reason London Underground needed to run a full service is that when they ran partial services there was complaints about over crowding.

    And I need to find the links but usage of public transport is related to the frequency of the service. The less frequent the service the less popular it is. Knock a service down by 25% and usage may well drop 30% or more.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,738
    edited August 10

    I see we are back to anecdotal stories about I know somebody who got it despite been jabbed etc etc etc.

    Not to downplay that unfortunately people will get it, some will get it bad, but we don't do this for any other disease. We all know somebody who got cancer, had a terrible heart attack etc etc etc, with doctors saying they had a lucky escape there, and we don't then run into the fall out shelter.

    Humans are terrible at assessing risk and fixate on the horror stories e.g. why people are shit scared of shark attacks, despite you having basically no risk of actually suffering on, in comparison to getting in their car every day (and many being very naughty and driving at speed).

    What we need to see is the latest data on how the vaccines are holding up. The last time it all looked bang in line with the initial PHE estimates with well into the 90% reduction in hospitalization, and nothing like the initial scare data from Israel. The US is also looking good at the moment in terms of among the vaccinated.

    The data isn’t being released transparently or promptly, so all we have are anecdotes and second hand stories. I’ve got another second hand story for you from someone tangentially involved. That anyone still arguing boosters are not necessary for the whole country is now seen as the stupid person in the room.

    Ive got another one @Leon will like too, direct from someone else on one of the UK government committees. That it is now taken as a given behind closed doors that the virus originated in the Wuhan lab. For those that like to bet on US presidential elections, that seems pertinent I would have thought.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    Leon said:

    Lol. This cannot be coincidence

    I mean where is the coincidence in the first and third set of pictures?

    Only the 2nd is a coincidence or of course the slogan could have been nicked. But even if a coincidence that is the whole point of coincidences. You don't go around pointing out the thousands on non coincidences do you? You only notice the very few that are coincidences. Coincidences are the unlikely things that will happen in the thousands of things that don't, if that makes sense. So they will happen and we all go 'what a coincidence'.

    Same argument for all those people who argue there must be a god because how could we be here like this without one. Well of course we can only say that because we are here. In all those many more places where sentient beings don't exist, nobody is saying ' bugger there can't be a god if this is all that was created'
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
    Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
    Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.

    Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
    The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.

    Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere, and are not on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
    Railways and city-based hospitality are there to serve the public.

    The public is not there to serve railways and city-based hospitality.

    If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.
    The problem, of course, is that a lot of railway costs are fixed. Perhaps some savings can be made in terms of train crew and rolling stock costs, but the infrastructure still needs maintaining and that pretty much stays the same however many trains you run.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742

    MaxPB said:

    While the ratio of hospitalisation and death to cases is of course very much diminished, I think it is going too far to say that case numbers no longer matter.

    They still give an advanced warning of what is heading towards the hospitals, and ultimately if case numbers go through the roof the NHS will still be buggered.

    I'm not one of those saying that we need to tighten restrictions now, but the models must indicate a case rate trigger point when action is needed. Hopefully we never reach that point.

    But the point is that we've vaccinated as many people as possible, we've got booster doses coming. If that's not enough for a completely open society then what are we going to do? Constant lockdowns? Christmas cancelled forever? Everyone locked up from November to February? I don't understand this mentality of even thinking about any restrictions post-vaccine. Either they are enough or they aren't. If they aren't then we need a completely different answer to lockdowns because we'll be doing it forever.
    We think that vaccination is enough, and so far we are holding the line. However, if the virus runs through the population at a rate of knots, then some action to "flatten the sombrero" may be required.

    If this is a continuation of WFH, masks on trains and in Tesco or closing nightclubs again then so be it.

    Having patients die because they couldn't access the critical care they need is a scenario we need to avoid.
    We've just had 1.6m confirmed cases in this wave and it's still going, we're at about 13% of peak in-hospital than we had in the previous wave with cases that previously resulted in around 30k people needing hospital care. The latest data we have is that only around 15% of in-hospital cases are from double-vaxxed people, out of about 5k.

    I don't think the door to restrictions should ever be opened again. We need to live with this otherwise we're going to be on and off lockdown for years and all because some selfish idiots decided they were too good for the vaccine. No thanks.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms that Boris is the candidate of Leavers and the Northern and Midlands Red Wall still.

    Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now. Though Sunak might limit losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are

    Also, Cornwall. My Cornish Mum ADORES Boris. It’s almost sexual. But I prefer not to speculate

    But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
    The contrast between the SW and the East is interesting. I would have expected them to be very similar.
    The East surrounds London. I guess the population skews towards the commuter belt, whereas the South East, which surrounds London on the other side, has more population outside of the London catchment area.

    But then I do wonder about the sample sizes so perhaps the difference between East and South East is just noise.
    Most of the London commuter belt is in the SE not the East, only Essex and Hertfordshire are in the London commuter belt in the East.

    The East also had a bigger Leave vote so slightly odd figures, though there is a significant British Asian community in Essex and Hertfordshire and Cambridge which may favour Sunak over Boris
    Cambridge has a 4.9% Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi population v. an average for England of 5.5%.

    I think you've been misled by the 3.6% Chinese population v. 0.7% in England being lumped together in the "Asian" ethnicity category.
    (Irrespective of whether that has a bearing on Sunak's popularity!)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    Regarding the earlier discussion about Kate Clanchy, Philip Pullman has apologised for defending her.

    image
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,232
    edited August 10

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cases up again. We are losing.

    What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
    It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.

    If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.

    Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.

    The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.

    Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.

    Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
    Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
    Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.

    Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
    The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.

    Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere, and are not on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
    Railways and city-based hospitality are there to serve the public.

    The public is not there to serve railways and city-based hospitality.

    If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.
    To be honest, railways in London would probably run better and more viably with more WFH; at the moment they have to provide huge amounts of expensive capacity for the peak hours which are then underused the rest of the day.

    There's something odd with the repeated government shouting at people to get back to the office. I can't imagine many people (employees or bosses) thinking "you know, we were just fine with WFH or hybrid working, but those comments from Mr Sunak in the newspaper have put me right and no mistake. It's back on with the old pinstripe tomorrow morning."

    Maybe you shouldn't have the work experience kid running the country.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575

    I see we are back to anecdotal stories about I know somebody who got it despite been jabbed etc etc etc.

    Not to downplay that unfortunately people will get it, some will get it bad, but we don't do this for any other disease. We all know somebody who got cancer, had a terrible heart attack etc etc etc, with doctors saying they had a lucky escape there, and we don't then run into the fall out shelter.

    Humans are terrible at assessing risk and fixate on the horror stories e.g. why people are shit scared of shark attacks, despite you having basically no risk of actually suffering on, in comparison to getting in their car every day (and many being very naughty and driving at speed).

    What we need to see is the latest data on how the vaccines are holding up. The last time it all looked bang in line with the initial PHE estimates with well into the 90% reduction in hospitalization, and nothing like the initial scare data from Israel. The US is also looking good at the moment in terms of among the vaccinated.

    Don't be patronising. You personally may be shit at assessing risk, and thanks for sharing. I am pretty bloody good at it.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,203
    edited August 10
    stodge said:

    eek said:

    TFL is now such a basket case that I'm not sure it would be fixed in time to make London Mayor in 2024 an appetising choice.

    Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,

    TFL are no more or less a basket case than any other passenger transport provider. With Tube passenger numbers only half what they were pre-Covid and at 5% at spells during last year, it's little wonder the service is losing money.

    The Government, as part of its bailout, insisted TFL ran a full service whereas you could argue if you only have half the number of passengers, the off-peak weekday services, in particular, could have been curtailed. The same has been true of national rail services - maintenance of normal services was and is a condition of continued Government financial support.

    As for Sadiq Khan, he's beaten Zak Goldsmith and Shaun Bailey - as they say in horse racing "you can only beat what's put in front of you". I think any Conservative candidate would have struggled in 2016 - as for this year, Bailey did do much better than the polls suggested - indeed, the LD vote was dismal compared with what some of the polling was expecting. I'm not sure what happened on the day but Bailey did much better in west London than I was expecting.

    The fact remains he lost 55-45 on transfers which is a little better than Goldsmith who lost 57-43. That said, in the aftermath of what was a poor GE in London for the Conservatives in 2019 (the only seat they lost to Labour in the whole election was Putney), it's a signal the 2022 local elections may be of considerable interest.

    I think a bit much is made of the "Bailey did well" narrative.

    He was basically on a par with Goldsmith in 2016. That was a round of local elections that Corbyn narrowly won (by 1%) as opposed to 2021, which Starmer lost (by 7%).

    What Bailey did is beat the expectations game - expectations were extremely low, so matching Goldsmith was deemed a success even though he clearly did much worse than the average Conservative council candidate in the UK in 2021. If Starmer has any sort of recovery from poor local elections this year, he needn't worry too much about London borough council elections in 2022.

    I'd also note Bailey ultimately ran quite an effective core vote strategy - basically tough on crime, soft on cars. That's the sort of approach that gave him no serious chance of winning, but little real risk of crashing and burning - there are not enough votes in it to win in London, but enough to do alright with a blue rosette.
This discussion has been closed.