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Rishi v Boris: Who would make the better PM by English region – politicalbetting.com
Rishi v Boris: Who would make the better PM by English region – politicalbetting.com
Just about the only polling that looks views of Sunak against Johnson is the above regular question in the Redfield & Wilton poll.
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We Londoners of course remember his time as Mayor of our great city.
Yes, he beat Ken Livingstone to get re-elected but his tenure was unremarkable at best.
Mean, why not tell us what Mr J scored in Scotland? Or Wales and NI?
Sunak would do better in more Remain London but it is largely safe Labour now anyway. Though Sunak might limit Tory losses to the LDs in Remain areas of the Home Counties too it is still the Red Wall where most of the marginals are
Labour will only get in by winning Tory seats in England, the SNP will prop up Labour anyway
But it is a thing. The southwest of England loves Boris, I think it is because they are naturally Tory but they also like a bit of maverick non-conformism (cf Methodism) so they really like Bojo. And they don’t give a fuck about his private life, being very live-and-let-live
You are always telling us how much the Scots love Mr J. I was looking forward to seeing verification.
He is UK PM not Scottish PM and as long as he remains PM he can also refuse a legal indyref2.
Scots' opinion on Starmer might be relevant as he will need Scottish MPs support to become PM, Boris however was elected UK PM with an 80 seat majority despite losing in Scotland
So we can conclude then that nobody liked BoJo either, thanks for playing.
Khan doesn't win at random. He is popular, a lot of Londoners like him.
But then I do wonder about the sample sizes so perhaps the difference between East and South East is just noise.
The East also had a bigger Leave vote so slightly odd figures, though there is a significant British Asian community in Essex and Hertfordshire and Cambridge which may favour Sunak over Boris
The vaccines mean that the fatality rate for those vaccinated is now lower than for seasonal flu. That is a massive difference.
It would have been easier if the Delta variant hadn't arisen, and we were able to achieve herd immunity, but then maybe Beta (or is it Gamma?) would be causing more problems for countries that used a lot of AZ.
BUT:
Vaccinated in UK = No quarantine on return, only a couple of tests.
Vaccinated in UAE, with Pfizer vaccine = Required to quarantine for 10 days in UK, at nominated address.
I can assume that other Amber list countries face the same issue, especially with expatriates.
Emirates Airline seem quite pleased about being off the red list though, this ad is going viral online and about to hit UK TV screens.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uQHhYRuaEtM
The trouble is a clothes-peg on the nose vote counts just as much as one made enthusiastically.
And so what if cases rise?
I am 100% serious; what is the alternative other than getting vaccinations out there before we get on with our lives?
Pre-vaccinations there was an argument to be made that we should suppress the virus, in order to have time to get, develop and rollout a vaccine. But now?
Indeed it was quite worrying but then Sturgeon and Drakeford know best
If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.
Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.
The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.
Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.
Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
There isn't much more to it. No amount of mask wearing or opening a gym but not a pub etc is going to make much difference.
The only other option, is border permanently closed, instant total lockdown when a few cases arise. And remember NZers who now leave can't get back in until Feb at the earliest. All quarantine hotel capacity is totally booked up.
That's basically the equation. Outside of medical situation (where exposes to covid at high levels day in day out), most of everything else is performative on a countrywide basis, as long as we have society at least somewhat open.
Also Rory Stewart is likely to find something more interesting to do in the next 3 years,
It is deaths and hospitalisations that matter and they are far below where they were six months ago.
We will never eliminate Covid cases, we just have to live with it, though the double vaccinated tend to be less prone to catch it as well as being far less likely to be hospitalised
Rory undoubtedly appeals to Londoners, but would there be too much friction against the government? Boris can trash Khan all he likes, but can’t trash a Rory when he’s saying something completely different to government policy.
Which opens up an interesting question, would Boris or whoever is PM want all elections on the same day or may he prefer to hold the general election in late October / November 2023 after the new electoral boundaries have been created.
Though I suppose you'd want to do a detailed comparison to be sure. Maybe the difference in turnout is mainly in the outer London Tory boroughs and the opposite would be true.
Anyone who disagreed then had the Curse of Cain upon them, as far as he was concerned, and he would deliberately provoke, and then it could get personal. That never changed even after nearly 5 years.
Throughout (and still today) I have perfectly civil discussions with him on betting opportunities, so I now confine my discussions with him to those alone.
They still give an advanced warning of what is heading towards the hospitals, and ultimately if case numbers go through the roof the NHS will still be buggered.
I'm not one of those saying that we need to tighten restrictions now, but the models must indicate a case rate trigger point when action is needed. Hopefully we never reach that point.
Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
Late 30's - caught watching the footie final with friends
Everyone present caught it - from less than 2 years old to 60's
He has had 2 hospital stays - They told him he was lucky he was double jabbed or things would have been worse
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
We've reached 75% of adults having had 2 doses.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says he "truly offended women" and "for that, I deeply deeply apologise", adding "I take full responsibility for my actions" https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1425127147472134149/video/1
Not to downplay that unfortunately people will get it, some will get it bad, but we don't do this for any other disease. We all know somebody who got cancer, had a terrible heart attack etc etc etc, with doctors saying they had a lucky escape there, and we don't then run into the fall out shelter.
Humans are terrible at assessing risk and fixate on the horror stories e.g. why people are shit scared of shark attacks, despite you having basically no risk of actually suffering on, in comparison to getting in their car every day (and many being very naughty and driving at speed).
What we need to see is the latest data on how the vaccines are holding up. The last time it all looked bang in line with the initial PHE estimates with well into the 90% reduction in hospitalization, and nothing like the initial scare data from Israel. The US is also looking good at the moment in terms of among the vaccinated.
Always nice to tip a 33% return in 48 hours.
The Government, as part of its bailout, insisted TFL ran a full service whereas you could argue if you only have half the number of passengers, the off-peak weekday services, in particular, could have been curtailed. The same has been true of national rail services - maintenance of normal services was and is a condition of continued Government financial support.
As for Sadiq Khan, he's beaten Zak Goldsmith and Shaun Bailey - as they say in horse racing "you can only beat what's put in front of you". I think any Conservative candidate would have struggled in 2016 - as for this year, Bailey did do much better than the polls suggested - indeed, the LD vote was dismal compared with what some of the polling was expecting. I'm not sure what happened on the day but Bailey did much better in west London than I was expecting.
The fact remains he lost 55-45 on transfers which is a little better than Goldsmith who lost 57-43. That said, in the aftermath of what was a poor GE in London for the Conservatives in 2019 (the only seat they lost to Labour in the whole election was Putney), it's a signal the 2022 local elections may be of considerable interest.
Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere and claimed on expenses, and have no understanding of those on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
The public is not there to serve railways and city-based hospitality.
If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.
If this is a continuation of WFH, masks on trains and in Tesco or closing nightclubs again then so be it.
Having patients die because they couldn't access the critical care they need is a scenario we need to avoid.
It was also the belief that you could segment those in society into at risk and not at risk. Which I think we have seen isn't really possible until you totally reshape society and ask people who interact with the risky to totally cut themselves off from the rest of the world i.e. care staff living in the care facility full time.
We are now in a world where you are can kicking if you think you can just avoid ever coming into contact with somebody with COVID your whole life.
I think you've been misled by the 3.6% Chinese population v. 0.7% in England being lumped together in the "Asian" ethnicity category.
I suppose that one thing Yorkshire and London have in common is the sense that nothing outside of their boundaries is worth bothering with. Each as parochial as the other.
And I need to find the links but usage of public transport is related to the frequency of the service. The less frequent the service the less popular it is. Knock a service down by 25% and usage may well drop 30% or more.
Ive got another one @Leon will like too, direct from someone else on one of the UK government committees. That it is now taken as a given behind closed doors that the virus originated in the Wuhan lab. For those that like to bet on US presidential elections, that seems pertinent I would have thought.
Only the 2nd is a coincidence or of course the slogan could have been nicked. But even if a coincidence that is the whole point of coincidences. You don't go around pointing out the thousands on non coincidences do you? You only notice the very few that are coincidences. Coincidences are the unlikely things that will happen in the thousands of things that don't, if that makes sense. So they will happen and we all go 'what a coincidence'.
Same argument for all those people who argue there must be a god because how could we be here like this without one. Well of course we can only say that because we are here. In all those many more places where sentient beings don't exist, nobody is saying ' bugger there can't be a god if this is all that was created'
I don't think the door to restrictions should ever be opened again. We need to live with this otherwise we're going to be on and off lockdown for years and all because some selfish idiots decided they were too good for the vaccine. No thanks.
There's something odd with the repeated government shouting at people to get back to the office. I can't imagine many people (employees or bosses) thinking "you know, we were just fine with WFH or hybrid working, but those comments from Mr Sunak in the newspaper have put me right and no mistake. It's back on with the old pinstripe tomorrow morning."
Maybe you shouldn't have the work experience kid running the country.
He was basically on a par with Goldsmith in 2016. That was a round of local elections that Corbyn narrowly won (by 1%) as opposed to 2021, which Starmer lost (by 7%).
What Bailey did is beat the expectations game - expectations were extremely low, so matching Goldsmith was deemed a success even though he clearly did much worse than the average Conservative council candidate in the UK in 2021. If Starmer has any sort of recovery from poor local elections this year, he needn't worry too much about London borough council elections in 2022.
I'd also note Bailey ultimately ran quite an effective core vote strategy - basically tough on crime, soft on cars. That's the sort of approach that gave him no serious chance of winning, but little real risk of crashing and burning - there are not enough votes in it to win in London, but enough to do alright with a blue rosette.