I mean where is the coincidence in the first and third set of pictures?
Only the 2nd is a coincidence or of course the slogan could have been nicked. But even if a coincidence that is the whole point of coincidences. You don't go around pointing out the thousands on non coincidences do you? You only notice the very few that are coincidences. Coincidences are the unlikely things that will happen in the thousands of things that don't, if that makes sense. So they will happen and we all go 'what a coincidence'.
Same argument for all those people who argue there must be a god because how could we be here like this without one. Well of course we can only say that because we are here. In all those many more places where sentient beings don't exist, nobody is saying ' bugger there can't be a god if this is all that was created'
The last picture is truncated. Her outfit is identical
Although the Scottish national colour is a dark blue, and there are a limited number of female suit designs, so I'm not sure it is that much of a surprise that you are able to find at least one time that the two wore very similar outfits.
Technically the Saltire is not a very dark blue: it is certainly not as dark as the UJ blue. So even less of a surprise.
But Ms Sturgeon has worn plenty of other hues anyway. Red, for instance. Or offwhite and black to meet Mr Johnson.
£25-£30k is a only moderate salary for a lorry driver, especially given the hours and distances involved + time away from family.
If it gets up to £35-£40k then I'd say that would be attractive for a lot of people, but I imagine there are months of training & experience needed to get fully efficient first.
Tube drivers are overpaid, these ones aren't at the moment.
The head of the Road Haulage Association tells Sky News he can see problems with refuse collection adding to the deteriorating consequences of the UK's HGV driver shortagehttps://trib.al/FWDLwnD
I think that's already happening, there have been a few weeks where it's not been collected on the right day round here recently
Popped into Tesco's in Cranham today on my #emptyshelfwatch - full to the brim.
Maybe the dustmen are driving the Supermarket lorries in RM14!
Tesco's at East Ham - very little milk and low supplies of bottled water but everything else looked well stocked as far as I could see.
Bottled water seems to be the big one - We get a Tesco delivery and its been missing quite a lot recently, plus the twitter photos are often of the water section
Any idea what's causing the bottled water shortage? Brexit problems with Evian? Sindy problems with Highland Spring?
A mixture of Covid-19 and Brexit is responsible for a lack of (recycled) bottles and assorted polymers.
£25-£30k is a only moderate salary for a lorry driver, especially given the hours and distances involved + time away from family.
If it gets up to £35-£40k then I'd say that would be attractive for a lot of people, but I imagine there are months of training & experience needed to get fully efficient first.
Tube drivers are overpaid, these ones aren't at the moment.
An old Viz mock up of a quarterly magazine was either
"Lorry Driver Monthly - You don't have to be a serial killer, but it helps"
or
"Serial Killer Monthly - You don't have to be a Lorry Driver but it helps"
The head of the Road Haulage Association tells Sky News he can see problems with refuse collection adding to the deteriorating consequences of the UK's HGV driver shortagehttps://trib.al/FWDLwnD
I think that's already happening, there have been a few weeks where it's not been collected on the right day round here recently
Popped into Tesco's in Cranham today on my #emptyshelfwatch - full to the brim.
Maybe the dustmen are driving the Supermarket lorries in RM14!
Admittedly I shop mainly in Waitrose and M&S, but I've never seen an empty shelf, except right at the end of the day (9pm-ish) when they're clearing stock and/or waiting for the next shipments in the morning.
Fresh fruit is the same, I went down the town market today and the enthusiastic trader selling there (everything in pounds and ounces and at least 5 times bigger than the metric measures) was cheaper than almost any supermarket and had nectarines, cherries, apricots, bananas, apples, plums, avocados... you name it.
I mean where is the coincidence in the first and third set of pictures?
Only the 2nd is a coincidence or of course the slogan could have been nicked. But even if a coincidence that is the whole point of coincidences. You don't go around pointing out the thousands on non coincidences do you? You only notice the very few that are coincidences. Coincidences are the unlikely things that will happen in the thousands of things that don't, if that makes sense. So they will happen and we all go 'what a coincidence'.
Same argument for all those people who argue there must be a god because how could we be here like this without one. Well of course we can only say that because we are here. In all those many more places where sentient beings don't exist, nobody is saying ' bugger there can't be a god if this is all that was created'
The last picture is truncated. Her outfit is identical
Although the Scottish national colour is a dark blue, and there are a limited number of female suit designs, so I'm not sure it is that much of a surprise that you are able to find at least one time that the two wore very similar outfits.
But look at the 3rd picture. Both of them have their eyes open and aren't sticking their tongue out. It's genuinely spooky.
Sean’s on ouzo no. 6. He’s probably watching Teletubbies on Netflix and thinking it’s an allusion to Emmerdale Farm. Never been quite right that boy.
Hugely excited to be able to announce my brand new show on @GBNews!
Congratulations, Francis!
LOL, They couldn't afford me.
Perhaps not. But I’d watch at least one episode.
We should pull together a PB a show for GB news.
TSE - fashion tips Max - latest vaccine news Malmesbury - latest plague numbers Justin - random historical parallels Hyufd - polls and whatever the fuck CCO have said today CHB - rebuttal from Labour MalcolmG - to give the view from Scotland, which is that they hate everyone Eek and JJessop on computer coding Driving with Dura Ace And finally a stand up section with some awesome puns from me.
Pinging Cyclefree to wonder why its an all male lineup.
A betting section is notable by its absence
How are you feeling about our £300/£100 Starmer bet now? Still like it?
What was it again? He wont be PM after the next GE?
If you can't remember a bet why the fuck are we doing it?
Shape up.
Wasn't it that?
That's the one.
The polls are closer than when we had the bet, so I guess not as happy as I was then
I think it's back at flat after a long period of being underwater for me.
£25-£30k is a only moderate salary for a lorry driver, especially given the hours and distances involved + time away from family.
If it gets up to £35-£40k then I'd say that would be attractive for a lot of people, but I imagine there are months of training & experience needed to get fully efficient first.
Tube drivers are overpaid, these ones aren't at the moment.
Agreed re tube drivers. We were looking into a move to London a few years ago and were shocked by how much they earn. Mind you, I don’t fancy dealing with all those suicides and accidents.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
The head of the Road Haulage Association tells Sky News he can see problems with refuse collection adding to the deteriorating consequences of the UK's HGV driver shortagehttps://trib.al/FWDLwnD
Perhaps we could pile up the rubbish in Leicester Square for that nostalgic look of decades ago...
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
Well, what did I say the other day? Equating green reform = ****ing working class communities was an even worse result than reminding everyone of the days of Mrs T.
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
Empty shelf watch does make a change from the usual strawberry shortage watch....said as I stuff my mouth with a load of fresh strawberries gathered from a local farm earlier today.
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
The gender gap also reached its highest level in 10 years, with the rate of A* and As standing at 46.4% for girls versus 41.7% for boys – a further reversal of the trend seen in 2017 and 2018, when boys last outperformed girls in exams.
In maths, female pupils overtook their male peers for the first time in the proportion of A*s as the gap overall widened across all subjects other than Spanish and German.
I’m shocked that girly swots benefitted most from the lack of exams.
(I identify as a girly swot)
I reckon that more are getting A levels at A and A star than took them at all in the early Eighties when I did.
I see that 44% of A Level candidates this year have been awarded A or A* grades.I have been reflecting on the fact that under the system of Relative Marking applied until 1988 the A grade was restricted to the top 10% of candidates sitting a paper - with a further 15% awarded a B grade. It follows that some 77% of those awarded A and A* star grades today would not then have done better than a B grade - indeed 43% would not have exceeded a C grade. That is hyperinflation indeed - notwithstanding the debates to be had as to the respective merits of Relative v Absolute Marking systems. I imagine that Jeremy Corbyn would have managed 2B grades this year!
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
There is some emerging technology around atmospheric CO2 capture, really the key is going to be renewable energy. It will never be a free process in terms of energy so we will need to put energy in which obviously can't come from fossil fuels.
Though, I do agree we will need to move into a net negative scenario after we hit net zero. I think of it like reducing the national debt once the deficit has been eliminated. We need 2-3 decades of net negative on greenhouse gases.
Just as there was an opportunity 30 years ago to be the first mover for renewable energy, there is one now for net negative technologies. We need to be pouring research money into it.
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
And are there any negative effects?
Well, it would affect a lot of agricultural land too - we'd need to spend billions and billions on flood defences.
Some of it is happening, and will happen, anyway though, so we'd best get on with it.
Good time to be a civil engineer or, indeed, any form of engineer.
Is there any reason the creature couldn't be quarantined while taking anti TB medicines, until testing clear? We don't put down humans with it!
... but I was wanting to check my memory, and yes furriners do weird furrin things like vaccinating their bestial. So the Dept of Ag could do it differently if it wanted.
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
That's a cogent and sensible analysis and I wouldn't disagree.
I'm also a firm believer human ingenuity will be a big part of the solution to all this but there will, I fear, be some difficult years ahead as we resolve this and there will be some horrible events both sudden and long drawn out which will involve tens if not hundreds of millions of people.
To be fair to Boris Johnson, which I'm not as a rule, at least he's talking about a Governmental response. The reaction of some in his Party shows the real uphill battle all parties have in convincing some still sceptical and downright ostrich-like individuals in the electorate and elsewhere.
The truth is we cannot go on as we are - that's not to say we should abandon civilisation, far from it but recognising technological change and innovation has always shaped society and will do so again.
Empty shelf watch does make a change from the usual strawberry shortage watch....said as I stuff my mouth with a load of fresh strawberries gathered from a local farm earlier today.
You had to gather them yourself? Shows how bad things have become!
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
And are there any negative effects?
Well, it would affect a lot of agricultural land too - we'd need to spend billions and billions on flood defences.
Some of it is happening, and will happen, anyway though, so we'd best get on with it.
Good time to be a civil engineer or, indeed, any form of engineer.
I reckon the trick is to buy property that will end up with a good sea view but no danger of falling into it.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Well, it depends.
Green policies cannot be separated from redistribution of wealth and economic development of needy areas. Fitting electric heating, or heat pumps etc is only a problem if a cost burden on the Red Wall voters. If they come with subsidies etc, then not such an issue.
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
There is some emerging technology around atmospheric CO2 capture, really the key is going to be renewable energy. It will never be a free process in terms of energy so we will need to put energy in which obviously can't come from fossil fuels.
Though, I do agree we will need to move into a net negative scenario after we hit net zero. I think of it like reducing the national debt once the deficit has been eliminated. We need 2-3 decades of net negative on greenhouse gases.
Just as there was an opportunity 30 years ago to be the first mover for renewable energy, there is one now for net negative technologies. We need to be pouring research money into it.
What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.
If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.
Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.
The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.
Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.
Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.
Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.
Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere, and are not on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
Railways and city-based hospitality are there to serve the public.
The public is not there to serve railways and city-based hospitality.
If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.
Railways are there to serve shareholders, that is what private business entails.
The railways model in England has been transformed into one where the operators are almost like utility companies, in their tediousness to manage or externally evaluate. Their only real USP in tendering now will be their track record on timely and clean services, and the efficiency of their opex.
All of the revenue risk has already been assumed by the taxpayer, initially by emergency covid measures. As we speak, that arrangement is being legally formalised for operators into the medium term, who are currently bidding for the concession contracts on a preferred / sole bidder basis. Massive tax payer funded bail out for largely foreign owned operators basically, and they’re still free to pay dividends in the mean time. So if that is what you mean by “there to serve the shareholders”, yes. But it’s being done without any of risk that private business normally entails.
Nationalise the railways and run them properly for the needs of the public. Some things work privately owned and other don't. That's not ideological, it's logical
The best route forward is probably going to be concession agreements, rather than franchises or public operators.
This has most of the benefits of private operation, and most of the benefits of public ownership.
(This post is totally unrelated to the extensive work I’m currently doing on concession agreements. For utilities, rather than railways, but the same principals apply.)
Genuine question, in such a model how does the operation honestly differ between a state concession vs one by the German Government company. What do the Germans offer?
The Germans are running it professionally and not politically.
Almost every single argument made by those who want the state to interfere, is precisely why the British state should not.
Jesus Christ, have you ever been on a German state company provided train in this country?
I only take trains once every few years.
And yet you feel you have the knowledge to talk to somebody who uses them mostly every day. You really do talk out of your rear
One of the thing that amuses me about conversations about the railways is that, eventually, it comes down to "I'm a passenger! I know how to run the railway!"
It leads to such hilarity as the unions / Labour producing long and worthy documents about how they would change the system, that only mentions railfreight once. Because railfreight is evidently unimpotant.
The railways are a massively complex system, and the idea that you, as a regular passenger, automatically know how it should be run or structured is slightly odd.
I go to the supermarket regularly. I don't pretend to fully understand their logistics chains, or how to improve it.
I remember British Railways and nobody should want to go back to those days
1980s-era BR was actually quite efficient. But it was also managing a shrinking system, something that's much easier to do than managing an expanding system. You are rationalising and cutting, rather than building. It was also - with a couple of exceptions - not customer focussed.
The pre-Covid expansion in passenger numbers after privatisation would have seemed like an impossible dream in the mid-1980s. Likewise safety (yes, really). The only disappointment is that railfreight didn't pick up to the same degree - and that was partly because of the death of loadhaul coal.
I used British Railways most every working day between 1960 and 1963 and it was terrible
With respect Big_G, lots of things were terrible 60 years ago. Look at the (then privately run) British Car industry in the early 60s.
The Tory government who had then been nominally in charge of British Railways for 10+ years must have been really terrible!
Did you experience BR 60 years ago
I did, steam trains were brilliant
Dirty, smelly, noisy, inefficient, and they pumped out lots of carbon into the atmosphere.
Not that dirty, smell amazing, sound terrific and emitted a really rather moderate amount of carbon into the atmosphere, really. Full of romance too.
I'll grant you they were inefficient though - you don't get much traction power from a steam loco next to a modern electric, and they cost less unit for unit, their maintenance costs are far less, and can be operated with far fewer men.
Contrary to popular belief, electric traction (in the UK) has been around for 130 years.
1890 on the City & South London (now part of the Underground's Northern Line).
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
And are there any negative effects?
Well, it would affect a lot of agricultural land too - we'd need to spend billions and billions on flood defences.
Some of it is happening, and will happen, anyway though, so we'd best get on with it.
Good time to be a civil engineer or, indeed, any form of engineer.
I reckon the trick is to buy property that will end up with a good sea view but no danger of falling into it.
Don't forget that coastal erosion will destabilise some existing higher coastlines by, for instance, removing the sediment stabilising the toes of landslipped terrain, or simply cutting into the existing equilibrium slopes till they slump afresh. Tricky that.
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
And are there any negative effects?
Well, it would affect a lot of agricultural land too - we'd need to spend billions and billions on flood defences.
Some of it is happening, and will happen, anyway though, so we'd best get on with it.
Good time to be a civil engineer or, indeed, any form of engineer.
I reckon the trick is to buy property that will end up with a good sea view but no danger of falling into it.
It looks like my drive to the East Coast will be a lot shorter with the Fens underwater.
Always buy a house on a hill (though not where coastal erosion is a problem like NE Norfolk).
Aston Martin's first appeal against Seb Vettel's disqualification from the Hungarian GP has been thrown out. Since it seemed to consist of: "Yes, FIA, you're right, we didn't have enough fuel in the tank at the end of the race. But we had a leak and lost some. Our calculations show we should have had enough..." , it is probably to be expected.
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
There is some emerging technology around atmospheric CO2 capture, really the key is going to be renewable energy. It will never be a free process in terms of energy so we will need to put energy in which obviously can't come from fossil fuels.
Though, I do agree we will need to move into a net negative scenario after we hit net zero. I think of it like reducing the national debt once the deficit has been eliminated. We need 2-3 decades of net negative on greenhouse gases.
Just as there was an opportunity 30 years ago to be the first mover for renewable energy, there is one now for net negative technologies. We need to be pouring research money into it.
Nuclear fusion mate, ticket out of here.
I wish it was as easy as that and I'm a big believer that we'll one day crack fusion. I fear that it will be a decade too late for us to really benefit in climate change terms to halt the rise in temperature. I'd love for one of the smaller private companies to crack it sooner rather than later. I'd hate to be waiting around for ITER.
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
That's a cogent and sensible analysis and I wouldn't disagree.
I'm also a firm believer human ingenuity will be a big part of the solution to all this but there will, I fear, be some difficult years ahead as we resolve this and there will be some horrible events both sudden and long drawn out which will involve tens if not hundreds of millions of people.
To be fair to Boris Johnson, which I'm not as a rule, at least he's talking about a Governmental response. The reaction of some in his Party shows the real uphill battle all parties have in convincing some still sceptical and downright ostrich-like individuals in the electorate and elsewhere.
The truth is we cannot go on as we are - that's not to say we should abandon civilisation, far from it but recognising technological change and innovation has always shaped society and will do so again.
It's because too many (far too many) try and use it to make political hay - end to capitalism, end to the "patriarchy", private cars, private living, switching to awful diets etc. - so it's no surprise so many people then try and attack the problem at source.
I'm a great believer in technology and human ingenuity, and I believe it will hold the answers and make our lives even better at the same time too.
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
Compared with the Last Glacial Maximum, during the last Ice Age, say 20,000 years ago, sea level was roughly 100 m (328 ft) lower than it is today.
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
There is some emerging technology around atmospheric CO2 capture, really the key is going to be renewable energy. It will never be a free process in terms of energy so we will need to put energy in which obviously can't come from fossil fuels.
Though, I do agree we will need to move into a net negative scenario after we hit net zero. I think of it like reducing the national debt once the deficit has been eliminated. We need 2-3 decades of net negative on greenhouse gases.
Just as there was an opportunity 30 years ago to be the first mover for renewable energy, there is one now for net negative technologies. We need to be pouring research money into it.
Nuclear fusion mate, ticket out of here.
I wish it was as easy as that and I'm a big believer that we'll one day crack fusion. I fear that it will be a decade too late for us to really benefit in climate change terms to halt the rise in temperature. I'd love for one of the smaller private companies to crack it sooner rather than later. I'd hate to be waiting around for ITER.
I think it's for the latter half of the century, so I see it for the carbon suck.
EDIT: ITER is shit, we're far more likely to have success with MAST-U and then the STEP programme.
What would you propose? Lockdown 4? If vaccines aren't enough then what's the solution?
It’s pretty clear that vaccines give about 6 months worth of protection from catching it, but hopefully much longer lasting protection from getting seriously ill. That might be why cases have hit a stubborn plateau. I also know several people testing positive for the second time now.
If we are giving up on stopping cases, what’s most important of course is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases. This is happily far lower than where we are. But… there is a but.
Gone are the days when we could say double vaxxed people aren’t going to hospital. They are. I have an acquaintance who just spent a week on O2 despite being double vaxxed, one of the cohort done early in the year.
The vaccines probably saved his life but it was still a fairly close run thing. I imagine what we’ll see is the hospitalisations / cases ratios creep up a bit, and there will be an inevitable increase in cases with back to school/Uni/the office.
Probably and hopefully not sufficiently badly to require another “lockdown”. But I’ve little doubt that the return to the office orders will be overturned within weeks, and schools will up creek again.
Until the booster programme then gets ahead of it again. Come next winter hopefully they’ll be ahead of things a bit more than this one.
Don't forget that the booster programme is going to be primarily Pfizer which is much faster acting than AZ (about 10 days vs 25 days to reach maximum efficacy) so people who got their second doses in Feb/March will all start getting their third doses and renewed immunity by the end of September. By the end of November all of groups 1-9 should have got their third dose should they want one.
Next year’s boosters will presumably be tweaked and tested in time against delta (and whatever else), which if there’s not too much genetic drift will crush cases. This year that’s obviously not the case. And until we get boosters into the over 40s, things might be sticky.
Rishi’s Great Back To The Office coercion attempts are quite clearly coming months too early, perhaps 6 months in fact. And it’s going to increase the chances of other restrictions being introduced. I am beginning to think the chancellor wears no clothes.
The whole “Get Back to the Office” stuff is because they see the revenues from railways and city-based hospitality declining - but don’t understand that the commute is what people most hate about their job.
Most of the politicians, of course, live right in the middle of London, a few minutes from anywhere, and are not on the 06:42 from Basingstoke or Swindon five days a week.
Railways and city-based hospitality are there to serve the public.
The public is not there to serve railways and city-based hospitality.
If the railways aren't as busy any more going forwards then we should be looking at how to cut funding to the railways and redirect it to elsewhere instead - not trying to force people back onto the railways against their wishes.
Railways are there to serve shareholders, that is what private business entails.
The railways model in England has been transformed into one where the operators are almost like utility companies, in their tediousness to manage or externally evaluate. Their only real USP in tendering now will be their track record on timely and clean services, and the efficiency of their opex.
All of the revenue risk has already been assumed by the taxpayer, initially by emergency covid measures. As we speak, that arrangement is being legally formalised for operators into the medium term, who are currently bidding for the concession contracts on a preferred / sole bidder basis. Massive tax payer funded bail out for largely foreign owned operators basically, and they’re still free to pay dividends in the mean time. So if that is what you mean by “there to serve the shareholders”, yes. But it’s being done without any of risk that private business normally entails.
Nationalise the railways and run them properly for the needs of the public. Some things work privately owned and other don't. That's not ideological, it's logical
The best route forward is probably going to be concession agreements, rather than franchises or public operators.
This has most of the benefits of private operation, and most of the benefits of public ownership.
(This post is totally unrelated to the extensive work I’m currently doing on concession agreements. For utilities, rather than railways, but the same principals apply.)
Genuine question, in such a model how does the operation honestly differ between a state concession vs one by the German Government company. What do the Germans offer?
The Germans are running it professionally and not politically.
Almost every single argument made by those who want the state to interfere, is precisely why the British state should not.
Jesus Christ, have you ever been on a German state company provided train in this country?
I only take trains once every few years.
And yet you feel you have the knowledge to talk to somebody who uses them mostly every day. You really do talk out of your rear
One of the thing that amuses me about conversations about the railways is that, eventually, it comes down to "I'm a passenger! I know how to run the railway!"
It leads to such hilarity as the unions / Labour producing long and worthy documents about how they would change the system, that only mentions railfreight once. Because railfreight is evidently unimpotant.
The railways are a massively complex system, and the idea that you, as a regular passenger, automatically know how it should be run or structured is slightly odd.
I go to the supermarket regularly. I don't pretend to fully understand their logistics chains, or how to improve it.
I remember British Railways and nobody should want to go back to those days
1980s-era BR was actually quite efficient. But it was also managing a shrinking system, something that's much easier to do than managing an expanding system. You are rationalising and cutting, rather than building. It was also - with a couple of exceptions - not customer focussed.
The pre-Covid expansion in passenger numbers after privatisation would have seemed like an impossible dream in the mid-1980s. Likewise safety (yes, really). The only disappointment is that railfreight didn't pick up to the same degree - and that was partly because of the death of loadhaul coal.
I used British Railways most every working day between 1960 and 1963 and it was terrible
With respect Big_G, lots of things were terrible 60 years ago. Look at the (then privately run) British Car industry in the early 60s.
The Tory government who had then been nominally in charge of British Railways for 10+ years must have been really terrible!
Did you experience BR 60 years ago
I did, steam trains were brilliant
Dirty, smelly, noisy, inefficient, and they pumped out lots of carbon into the atmosphere.
Not that dirty, smell amazing, sound terrific and emitted a really rather moderate amount of carbon into the atmosphere, really. Full of romance too.
I'll grant you they were inefficient though - you don't get much traction power from a steam loco next to a modern electric, and they cost less unit for unit, their maintenance costs are far less, and can be operated with far fewer men.
Sounds a bit like cars, from today’s earlier discussions. 20 years from now, there will be festivals of the V8s, with bonus points for naturally-aspirated and manual gearboxes.
Lawyers with good knowledge of the case suggest that the Prince could try to force the case to be switched to the High Court in London where they could try to have it struck out on grounds of lack of evidence.
If that is unsuccessful, the Prince might also argue that he has some form of sovereign or crown immunity because he was a working member of the Royal family and part of the British state apparatus at the time of the alleged incidents.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Yes but the polls show extraordinary levels of support for tough climate change measures across the UK
The trick will be as to whether voters feel the same when they have to fund many of the measures and as you point out Starmers and the Greens would be far more punitive
This is the point where all betting on the next GE is most probably off, and how can anyone tell just how the costs of covid and climate change are met without serious political fallout
The head of the Road Haulage Association tells Sky News he can see problems with refuse collection adding to the deteriorating consequences of the UK's HGV driver shortagehttps://trib.al/FWDLwnD
I think that's already happening, there have been a few weeks where it's not been collected on the right day round here recently
Popped into Tesco's in Cranham today on my #emptyshelfwatch - full to the brim.
Maybe the dustmen are driving the Supermarket lorries in RM14!
South Somerset have definitely been skipping refuse collections in Wincanton due to a "shortage of drivers".
One thing, it won't be Kevin Costner's Waterworld (unless you live in the Maldives, or Seychelles, where it will be) as I think even under the worst case scenario the worst sea level rise of 22m takes 1,000-2,000 years to fully develop.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
The shape of the land under the various ice sheets is important here. Under Greenland the land is shaped like a bowl, so the bulk of the ice sheet is pretty stable, and it would have to melt in place, which would take a long time even after becoming irreversible.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is different. I don't know exactly how fast in this context fast is, but it could essentially slide into ocean and increase sea levels in one go without having to melt completely to do so. That would be ~5m in a lot less than 1000 years.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
It looks like my drive to the East Coast will be a lot shorter with the Fens underwater.
Always buy a house on a hill (though not where coastal erosion is a problem like NE Norfolk).
The South Downs might become the new south coast - @NickPalmer will be fine in Haslemere-sur-mer while Chiddingfold-on-Sea will cater for the New London holidaymakers.
Not much hope for me here in East Ham I fear - I'm not sure, to paraphrase Mr Starkey, I'd like to be under the sea and certainly were an octopus to appear in the garden, Mrs Stodge would not be amused.
Methane is an interesting one, it's a good 40% of the overall warming effect but it only loiters in the atmosphere for 4-12 years, and then it pisses off.
Trouble is, when it's up there it's up to 30 times more effective at warming than CO2. But, once it's down (way down) the contributing factor it provides goes away very quickly.
So that's something - again natural gas and industry uses (including landfill) are leaky and naughty on this, as well as rice paddies and farms, particularly cattle, and there's an awful lot of microbes in them.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
Well they were also rather good at the Olympics....
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
That's a cogent and sensible analysis and I wouldn't disagree.
I'm also a firm believer human ingenuity will be a big part of the solution to all this but there will, I fear, be some difficult years ahead as we resolve this and there will be some horrible events both sudden and long drawn out which will involve tens if not hundreds of millions of people.
To be fair to Boris Johnson, which I'm not as a rule, at least he's talking about a Governmental response. The reaction of some in his Party shows the real uphill battle all parties have in convincing some still sceptical and downright ostrich-like individuals in the electorate and elsewhere.
The truth is we cannot go on as we are - that's not to say we should abandon civilisation, far from it but recognising technological change and innovation has always shaped society and will do so again.
It's because too many (far too many) try and use it to make political hay - end to capitalism, end to the "patriarchy", private cars, private living, switching to awful diets etc. - so it's no surprise so many people then try and attack the problem at source.
I'm a great believer in technology and human ingenuity, and I believe it will hold the answers and make our lives even better at the same time too.
Yes, the way forward is always advancements in technology.
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
There is some emerging technology around atmospheric CO2 capture, really the key is going to be renewable energy. It will never be a free process in terms of energy so we will need to put energy in which obviously can't come from fossil fuels.
Though, I do agree we will need to move into a net negative scenario after we hit net zero. I think of it like reducing the national debt once the deficit has been eliminated. We need 2-3 decades of net negative on greenhouse gases.
Just as there was an opportunity 30 years ago to be the first mover for renewable energy, there is one now for net negative technologies. We need to be pouring research money into it.
Nuclear fusion mate, ticket out of here.
I wish it was as easy as that and I'm a big believer that we'll one day crack fusion. I fear that it will be a decade too late for us to really benefit in climate change terms to halt the rise in temperature. I'd love for one of the smaller private companies to crack it sooner rather than later. I'd hate to be waiting around for ITER.
I think it's for the latter half of the century, so I see it for the carbon suck.
EDIT: ITER is shit, we're far more likely to have success with MAST-U and then the STEP programme.
There's a couple of promising US startups on the case as well, one is suggesting that they have cracked aneutronic fusion but it requires He-3 which is not exactly the easiest thing in the world to make (possibly requiring a feed-in reaction which wouldn't be aneutronic).
But yes, agree that ITER will be a waste of everyone's time and money. Bureaucratic nonsense project that will be outdone by smaller, faster moving rivals.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Yes but the polls show extraordinary levels of support for tough climate change measures across the UK
The trick will be as to whether voters feel the same when they have to fund many of the measures and as you point out Starmers and the Greens would be far more punitive
This is the point where all betting on the next GE is most probably off, and how can anyone tell just how the costs of covid and climate change are met without serious political fallout
This is the moment politics gets very real
To be honest, I think that it is too late to stop Climate Change and very possible for it to accelerate even if the world goes carbon neutral*. All that Siberian tundra defrosting and releasing stored methane and carbon, those Ice sheets melting etc.
A lot of what we love in the natural world will be extinct by the end of the century.
*the world won't go carbon neutral.There are too many selfish countries and individuals who won't make more than token efforts.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
I really wish I could believe anything you write. Pics or it didn't happen.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
Not doubting your experience but mine is of no issues at all. Maybe I’m in the Stazi own store?
It must be time for loft laggers of the world unite and 6 million new eco jobs in vegan shoe making type announcement.
As,long as they Avoid the spray foam for the loft. My Facebook gets spammed with offers for it. It will end in tears and this is one of the issues with green new deals for me. Lots of these sort of businesses spring up.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
Hugely excited to be able to announce my brand new show on @GBNews!
Congratulations, Francis!
LOL, They couldn't afford me.
Perhaps not. But I’d watch at least one episode.
We should pull together a PB a show for GB news.
TSE - fashion tips Max - latest vaccine news Malmesbury - latest plague numbers Justin - random historical parallels Hyufd - polls and whatever the fuck CCO have said today CHB - rebuttal from Labour MalcolmG - to give the view from Scotland, which is that they hate everyone Eek and JJessop on computer coding Driving with Dura Ace And finally a stand up section with some awesome puns from me.
Pinging Cyclefree to wonder why its an all male lineup.
I was wondering that too. The same mistake was made over a PB Fantasy government.
So I will do the Analysis of Scandals and all the interviews. And for light relief the Gardening Section and Tales from Italy. Leon can be the roving travel and sex correspondent.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
It'll be worth it in a few years.
East Germany led to the fantastic tv show Deutschland 83, Deutschland 86, and Deutschland 89.
Much like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl led to the second finest tv show ever, a bit of sacrifice is required for brilliant tv shows.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
It'll be worth in a few years.
East Germany led to the fantastic tv show Deutschland 83, Deutschland 86, and Deutschland 89.
Much like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl led to the second finest tv show ever, a bit of sacrifice is required for brilliant tv shows.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
I really wish I could believe anything you write. Pics or it didn't happen.
People are just pretending that problems caused by the pandemic are caused by Brexit. Those in charge of road haulage have been saying for years there was a shortage across the whole world, and the pandemic has made it worse . I’ve posted the links many times, but the Boris hating Remainers don’t want to face facts
It's because too many (far too many) try and use it to make political hay - end to capitalism, end to the "patriarchy", private cars, private living, switching to awful diets etc. - so it's no surprise so many people then try and attack the problem at source.
I'm a great believer in technology and human ingenuity, and I believe it will hold the answers and make our lives even better at the same time too.
Yes, there'll be a few false starts and some of the promises won't be delivered but the direction of travel in terms of coming up with both mitigation and longer-term solutions is already there.
Unfortunately, and I say this with a heavy heart, the short-term (next 10-20 years) doesn't look good and while we may enjoy some degree of protection in our part of the world, as we've seen, for many millions, it's going to be very bad and the consequences of that will be felt here as well.
I think we need to "show" the likes of China and India (and others) the prosperity and lifestyle we have enjoyed in the West won't be denied them but it'll be achieved via a different route which won't cause the environmental damage our journey to prosperity caused.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Yes but the polls show extraordinary levels of support for tough climate change measures across the UK
The trick will be as to whether voters feel the same when they have to fund many of the measures and as you point out Starmers and the Greens would be far more punitive
This is the point where all betting on the next GE is most probably off, and how can anyone tell just how the costs of covid and climate change are met without serious political fallout
This is the moment politics gets very real
Yes, that’s true.
I’m not surprised the polls support tough action given the argument is now not is climate change happening but how fast we go and the coverage of,it,is relentless be it TV shows, news articles, magazine shows, radio phone ins etc etc.
The only time support seems to wane is when Exctinction rebellion get up,to their stupid antics.
However, like supporting higher taxes, I suspect people,support,action as long as it doesn’t impact them.
Was slightly worried for our classic mini (1972) but E5 will continue, probably as the supreme option, and will be labelled.
A series engines tend to burn out valves every 10 000 miles or so without lead in the petrol, even with retarded ignition. This was a problem with my Austin Healey Sprite, though on a couple of thousand miles per year, an affordable expense restoring them.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Yes but the polls show extraordinary levels of support for tough climate change measures across the UK
The trick will be as to whether voters feel the same when they have to fund many of the measures and as you point out Starmers and the Greens would be far more punitive
This is the point where all betting on the next GE is most probably off, and how can anyone tell just how the costs of covid and climate change are met without serious political fallout
This is the moment politics gets very real
To be honest, I think that it is too late to stop Climate Change and very possible for it to accelerate even if the world goes carbon neutral*. All that Siberian tundra defrosting and releasing stored methane and carbon, those Ice sheets melting etc.
A lot of what we love in the natural world will be extinct by the end of the century.
*the world won't go carbon neutral.There are too many selfish countries and individuals who won't make more than token efforts.
Like most of us I have watched the fires and the floods in 'awe' at nature and I have come to a similar conclusion in many ways
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
I don't know where you're shopping but I haven't had any trouble getting anything down in Hampshire.
Methane is an interesting one, it's a good 40% of the overall warming effect but it only loiters in the atmosphere for 4-12 years, and then it pisses off.
Trouble is, when it's up there it's up to 30 times more effective at warming than CO2. But, once it's down (way down) the contributing factor it provides goes away very quickly.
So that's something - again natural gas and industry uses (including landfill) are leaky and naughty on this, as well as rice paddies and farms, particularly cattle, and there's an awful lot of microbes in them.
Ripe for bioengineering out, if you ask me.
Yes. You only need to cut methane emissions from agriculture in half and it has the potential to reduce the concentration of methane in the atmosphere quite quickly. It gives much more potential for helping us out in an overshoot scenario.
Sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere is much harder, because while we're burning fossil fuels the oceans absorb a large proportion of that, and that naturally goes in reverse when you are removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as the oceans will release some of the carbon dioxide they absorbed previously.
This is why stopping burning fossil fuels is much more urgent, as those emissions are much closer to being forever, while methane emissions are much easier to deal with later.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
I really wish I could believe anything you write. Pics or it didn't happen.
Absolutely nothing like that in our area nor is a topic of conversation
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
I really wish I could believe anything you write. Pics or it didn't happen.
People are just pretending that problems caused by the pandemic are caused by Brexit. Those in charge of road haulage have been saying for years there was a shortage across the whole world, and the pandemic has made it worse . I’ve posted the links many times, but the Boris hating Remainers don’t want to face facts
Like I said, Brexit will be blamed for everything bad that happens in the next decade. You can't fight it. It was the same as blaming the EU for everything before, a convenient excuse for our politicians.
Was slightly worried for our classic mini (1972) but E5 will continue, probably as the supreme option, and will be labelled.
A series engines tend to burn out valves every 10 000 miles or so without lead in the petrol, even with retarded ignition. This was a problem with my Austin Healey Sprite, though on a couple of thousand miles per year, an affordable expense restoring them.
Yep - we do around a thousand a year (one big, glorious trip to Devon, and the odd pootle).
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
Methane is an interesting one, it's a good 40% of the overall warming effect but it only loiters in the atmosphere for 4-12 years, and then it pisses off.
Trouble is, when it's up there it's up to 30 times more effective at warming than CO2. But, once it's down (way down) the contributing factor it provides goes away very quickly.
So that's something - again natural gas and industry uses (including landfill) are leaky and naughty on this, as well as rice paddies and farms, particularly cattle, and there's an awful lot of microbes in them.
Ripe for bioengineering out, if you ask me.
Yes. You only need to cut methane emissions from agriculture in half and it has the potential to reduce the concentration of methane in the atmosphere quite quickly. It gives much more potential for helping us out in an overshoot scenario.
Sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere is much harder, because while we're burning fossil fuels the oceans absorb a large proportion of that, and that naturally goes in reverse when you are removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as the oceans will release some of the carbon dioxide they absorbed previously.
This is why stopping burning fossil fuels is much more urgent, as those emissions are much closer to being forever, while methane emissions are much easier to deal with later.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Well, it depends.
Green policies cannot be separated from redistribution of wealth and economic development of needy areas. Fitting electric heating, or heat pumps etc is only a problem if a cost burden on the Red Wall voters. If they come with subsidies etc, then not such an issue.
That will surely depend on the level of subsidy. Ground and air source heat pumps are not only high in cost, and unlikely to come down a great deal, and even with the current level of subsidies the outlay is huge.
Anyway we are not,just talking about phasing out gas boilers are we. It is a whole raft of measures that are going to cost and there’s even talk of a carbon tax. Isn’t there always a tax.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
It'll be worth in a few years.
East Germany led to the fantastic tv show Deutschland 83, Deutschland 86, and Deutschland 89.
Much like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl led to the second finest tv show ever, a bit of sacrifice is required for brilliant tv shows.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Yes but the polls show extraordinary levels of support for tough climate change measures across the UK
The trick will be as to whether voters feel the same when they have to fund many of the measures and as you point out Starmers and the Greens would be far more punitive
This is the point where all betting on the next GE is most probably off, and how can anyone tell just how the costs of covid and climate change are met without serious political fallout
This is the moment politics gets very real
To be honest, I think that it is too late to stop Climate Change and very possible for it to accelerate even if the world goes carbon neutral*. All that Siberian tundra defrosting and releasing stored methane and carbon, those Ice sheets melting etc.
A lot of what we love in the natural world will be extinct by the end of the century.
*the world won't go carbon neutral.There are too many selfish countries and individuals who won't make more than token efforts.
A quarter of it has already happened, this is about arresting the final half and bringing some of that back too.
I'm confident we can do it. We solved the hole in the ozone layer problem (which really was an extinction event if it had gone) and that will be fully healed by 2080. Plus, we don't hear much about acid rain destroying Scandinavian forests these days - because we got on top of it.
It will be a difficult journey, but we'll get there.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
It'll be worth in a few years.
East Germany led to the fantastic tv show Deutschland 83, Deutschland 86, and Deutschland 89.
Much like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl led to the second finest tv show ever, a bit of sacrifice is required for brilliant tv shows.
Roll-on The Crown series 6, 7 and 8.
Andrew, the Rikers Island Years
It should be subtitled as 'The Tossing The Salad Years'
Was slightly worried for our classic mini (1972) but E5 will continue, probably as the supreme option, and will be labelled.
A series engines tend to burn out valves every 10 000 miles or so without lead in the petrol, even with retarded ignition. This was a problem with my Austin Healey Sprite, though on a couple of thousand miles per year, an affordable expense restoring them.
Yep - we do around a thousand a year (one big, glorious trip to Devon, and the odd pootle).
There are some specialist garages that used to sell four star, and even five star fuel, but it was quite expensive. I used to give my Sprite a tank full a couple of times a year to coat the valves. For a low mileage it isn't a very bad act.
Methane is an interesting one, it's a good 40% of the overall warming effect but it only loiters in the atmosphere for 4-12 years, and then it pisses off.
Trouble is, when it's up there it's up to 30 times more effective at warming than CO2. But, once it's down (way down) the contributing factor it provides goes away very quickly.
So that's something - again natural gas and industry uses (including landfill) are leaky and naughty on this, as well as rice paddies and farms, particularly cattle, and there's an awful lot of microbes in them.
Ripe for bioengineering out, if you ask me.
Yes. You only need to cut methane emissions from agriculture in half and it has the potential to reduce the concentration of methane in the atmosphere quite quickly. It gives much more potential for helping us out in an overshoot scenario.
Sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere is much harder, because while we're burning fossil fuels the oceans absorb a large proportion of that, and that naturally goes in reverse when you are removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as the oceans will release some of the carbon dioxide they absorbed previously.
This is why stopping burning fossil fuels is much more urgent, as those emissions are much closer to being forever, while methane emissions are much easier to deal with later.
Yep. Cattle farming is a major emitter.
There's a British company that has developed a feed additive made from a type of seaweed that cuts methane from cattle farming by over 90% iirc. The technology is currently in scale up and has got a lot of interested parties. If it can be rolled out globally the methane issue from livestock goes away.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
J They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Yes but the polls show extraordinary levels of support for tough climate change measures across the UK
The trick will be as to whether voters feel the same when they have to fund many of the measures and as you point out Starmers and the Greens would be far more punitive
This is the point where all betting on the next GE is most probably off, and how can anyone tell just how the costs of covid and climate change are met without serious political fallout
This is the moment politics gets very real
To be honest, I think that it is too late to stop Climate Change and very possible for it to accelerate even if the world goes carbon neutral*. All that Siberian tundra defrosting and releasing stored methane and carbon, those Ice sheets melting etc.
A lot of what we love in the natural world will be extinct by the end of the century.
*the world won't go carbon neutral.There are too many selfish countries and individuals who won't make more than token efforts.
Like most of us I have watched the fires and the floods in 'awe' at nature and I have come to a similar conclusion in many ways
Off topic, I've read the IPPC summary report (42 pages) and it seems quite well-reasoned and measured to me. They're very clear where they have evidence and where they don't, and how confident they are:
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
There is some emerging technology around atmospheric CO2 capture, really the key is going to be renewable energy. It will never be a free process in terms of energy so we will need to put energy in which obviously can't come from fossil fuels.
Though, I do agree we will need to move into a net negative scenario after we hit net zero. I think of it like reducing the national debt once the deficit has been eliminated. We need 2-3 decades of net negative on greenhouse gases.
Just as there was an opportunity 30 years ago to be the first mover for renewable energy, there is one now for net negative technologies. We need to be pouring research money into it.
Tory advocates immense state subsidies. New times indeed.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
It'll be worth in a few years.
East Germany led to the fantastic tv show Deutschland 83, Deutschland 86, and Deutschland 89.
Much like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl led to the second finest tv show ever, a bit of sacrifice is required for brilliant tv shows.
Roll-on The Crown series 6, 7 and 8.
Andrew, the Rikers Island Years
It should be subtitled as 'The Tossing The Salad Years'
I see we are back to anecdotal stories about I know somebody who got it despite been jabbed etc etc etc.
Not to downplay that unfortunately people will get it, some will get it bad, but we don't do this for any other disease. We all know somebody who got cancer, had a terrible heart attack etc etc etc, with doctors saying they had a lucky escape there, and we don't then run into the fall out shelter.
Humans are terrible at assessing risk and fixate on the horror stories e.g. why people are shit scared of shark attacks, despite you having basically no risk of actually suffering on, in comparison to getting in their car every day (and many being very naughty and driving at speed).
What we need to see is the latest data on how the vaccines are holding up. The last time it all looked bang in line with the initial PHE estimates with well into the 90% reduction in hospitalization, and nothing like the initial scare data from Israel. The US is also looking good at the moment in terms of among the vaccinated.
The data isn’t being released transparently or promptly, so all we have are anecdotes and second hand stories. I’ve got another second hand story for you from someone tangentially involved. That anyone still arguing boosters are not necessary for the whole country is now seen as the stupid person in the room.
Ive got another one @Leon will like too, direct from someone else on one of the UK government committees. That it is now taken as a given behind closed doors that the virus originated in the Wuhan lab. For those that like to bet on US presidential elections, that seems pertinent I would have thought.
Yes, this is what i hear
It is now generally accepted by western intel that it came from the Wuhan labs. It is also accepted that it was quite possibly engineered to be more virulent
Whether it was actually a bio-weapon in the making is the last question
I'm hearing differently. That the lab theory is fading amongst serious analysts. Looking like a 20% shot max. Not low enough - yet - to resume mocking but that's the direction of travel.
The circumstantial evidence is so overwhelming…
No, it’s not. I can’t really try to rebut your claim in detail, since you’d have to lay out just what that ‘overwhelming’ evidence consists of, but I’ve not seen anything that merits that description.
It's also noteworthy that evidence that is not supportive of the lab leak theory gets almost no attention. (See that on other mammalian carriers of CV19, for example.)
I see we are back to anecdotal stories about I know somebody who got it despite been jabbed etc etc etc.
Not to downplay that unfortunately people will get it, some will get it bad, but we don't do this for any other disease. We all know somebody who got cancer, had a terrible heart attack etc etc etc, with doctors saying they had a lucky escape there, and we don't then run into the fall out shelter.
Humans are terrible at assessing risk and fixate on the horror stories e.g. why people are shit scared of shark attacks, despite you having basically no risk of actually suffering on, in comparison to getting in their car every day (and many being very naughty and driving at speed).
What we need to see is the latest data on how the vaccines are holding up. The last time it all looked bang in line with the initial PHE estimates with well into the 90% reduction in hospitalization, and nothing like the initial scare data from Israel. The US is also looking good at the moment in terms of among the vaccinated.
There was data that I saw yesterday that had Moderna still at 76% vs Delta. Not clear whether that is a delta effect vs passage of time. Both still very good vs. hospitalisation which is what actually matters, not cases.
The mRNA vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech may be less effective than Moderna's against the Delta variant of the coronavirus, according to two reports posted on medRxiv on Sunday ahead of peer review. In a study of more than 50,000 patients in the Mayo Clinic Health System https://bit.ly/37Btmhf, researchers found the effectiveness of Moderna's vaccine against infection had dropped to 76% in July - when the Delta variant was predominant - from 86% in early 2021. Over the same period, the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had fallen to 42% from 76%, researchers said. While both vaccines remain effective at preventing COVID hospitalization, a Moderna booster shot may be necessary soon for anyone who got the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines earlier this year, said Dr. Venky Soundararajan of Massachusetts data analytics company nference, who led the Mayo study.
"Over the same period, the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had fallen to 42% from 76%, researchers said. "
That's a huge reduction...The UK numbers are far higher than that, even with AZN. 40% is one shot territory.
Perhaps 8-12 weeks really is the magic number.
Seems rather odd that Moderna is working so much better than Pfizer in that data (and 76% is much more align with UK numbers for mRNA vaccine), when every other study we see they are normally virtually no difference.
Moderna was given in much higher doses than Pfizer (hence the higher level of adverse reactions), so it may simply be that.
There's an East Germany vibe about Brexit Britain: half-full supermarket shelves and a government that wants to stop people's freedom of movement. No spying on each other yet, however.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
It'll be worth in a few years.
East Germany led to the fantastic tv show Deutschland 83, Deutschland 86, and Deutschland 89.
Much like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl led to the second finest tv show ever, a bit of sacrifice is required for brilliant tv shows.
Roll-on The Crown series 6, 7 and 8.
Andrew, the Rikers Island Years
It should be subtitled as 'The Tossing The Salad Years'
‘I’m the Daddy now’
I believe Prince Edward was nicknamed The Duchess when he joined the water soldiers, I wonder if his brother will get that nickname soon enough.
EXC: Red Wall Tories turn fire on ministers after shock polling revealed Tory voters will be hit hardest by Boris Johnson’s expensive green revolution.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
They may all be right but where do these voters go. Labour will be alot ‘greener’ than the Tories and the consequences would be worse.
Well, it depends.
Green policies cannot be separated from redistribution of wealth and economic development of needy areas. Fitting electric heating, or heat pumps etc is only a problem if a cost burden on the Red Wall voters. If they come with subsidies etc, then not such an issue.
That will surely depend on the level of subsidy. Ground and air source heat pumps are not only high in cost, and unlikely to come down a great deal, and even with the current level of subsidies the outlay is huge.
Anyway we are not,just talking about phasing out gas boilers are we. It is a whole raft of measures that are going to cost and there’s even talk of a carbon tax. Isn’t there always a tax.
Sure, but carbon neutrality does make for quite major changes in lifestyle. There is no getting away from that, and we see from this morning's thread that even the relatively minor shift to EV gets people's backs up.
That is why Green politics is so intrinsically left wing and requires economic justice and redistribution. Either that or it won't happen.
Methane is an interesting one, it's a good 40% of the overall warming effect but it only loiters in the atmosphere for 4-12 years, and then it pisses off.
Trouble is, when it's up there it's up to 30 times more effective at warming than CO2. But, once it's down (way down) the contributing factor it provides goes away very quickly.
So that's something - again natural gas and industry uses (including landfill) are leaky and naughty on this, as well as rice paddies and farms, particularly cattle, and there's an awful lot of microbes in them.
Ripe for bioengineering out, if you ask me.
Yes. You only need to cut methane emissions from agriculture in half and it has the potential to reduce the concentration of methane in the atmosphere quite quickly. It gives much more potential for helping us out in an overshoot scenario.
Sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere is much harder, because while we're burning fossil fuels the oceans absorb a large proportion of that, and that naturally goes in reverse when you are removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as the oceans will release some of the carbon dioxide they absorbed previously.
This is why stopping burning fossil fuels is much more urgent, as those emissions are much closer to being forever, while methane emissions are much easier to deal with later.
Yep. Cattle farming is a major emitter.
Agriculture (in the round) is about 33-34% of methane. I suspect cattle are responsible for about half of that.
It's a challenge but one of many and not the biggest one.
Comments
If it gets up to £35-£40k then I'd say that would be attractive for a lot of people, but I imagine there are months of training & experience needed to get fully efficient first.
Tube drivers are overpaid, these ones aren't at the moment.
"Lorry Driver Monthly - You don't have to be a serial killer, but it helps"
or
"Serial Killer Monthly - You don't have to be a Lorry Driver but it helps"
Cant remember which! Probably the former I think
Fresh fruit is the same, I went down the town market today and the enthusiastic trader selling there (everything in pounds and ounces and at least 5 times bigger than the metric measures) was cheaper than almost any supermarket and had nectarines, cherries, apricots, bananas, apples, plums, avocados... you name it.
Lol, a player called Innocent has been sent off for Malmo.
He really was Innocent.
🤳 Tory MP Whatsapp bruising tonight.. with machine gunning from rising stars and old guard…
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15833895/boris-johnson-red-wall-voters-green-revolution-whatsapp/ https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1425189798030028802/photo/1
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/10/tb-or-not-tb-why-geronimo-the-alpaca-has-divided-experts
His supporters include Covid-19 deniers/antivaxxers banging on about false positives.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf
It struck me that the last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 (the intermediate scenario) was over 3 million years ago.
Net Zero won't be enough, I think we'll have to go negative as well and do some biodome engineering: gently "suck" carbon from the atmosphere in the latter half of this century from 2050 to 2100 - and probably beyond - ideally using catalysts to turn it back to pure carbon.
It might even turn into a form of reverse "coal mining", which could titillate future generations of the Red Wall.
Having said that, a rise of 20ft in sea-level is enough to make life difficult in the Fens and the Somerset Levels, and exacerbate flooding, and would certainly complicate life in places like Portsmouth and Brighton.
A massive success for the schools.
Though, I do agree we will need to move into a net negative scenario after we hit net zero. I think of it like reducing the national debt once the deficit has been eliminated. We need 2-3 decades of net negative on greenhouse gases.
Just as there was an opportunity 30 years ago to be the first mover for renewable energy, there is one now for net negative technologies. We need to be pouring research money into it.
Some of it is happening, and will happen, anyway though, so we'd best get on with it.
Good time to be a civil engineer or, indeed, any form of engineer.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/22/bovine-tb-vaccine-trials-get-go-ahead-in-england-and-wales-badgers
I'm also a firm believer human ingenuity will be a big part of the solution to all this but there will, I fear, be some difficult years ahead as we resolve this and there will be some horrible events both sudden and long drawn out which will involve tens if not hundreds of millions of people.
To be fair to Boris Johnson, which I'm not as a rule, at least he's talking about a Governmental response. The reaction of some in his Party shows the real uphill battle all parties have in convincing some still sceptical and downright ostrich-like individuals in the electorate and elsewhere.
The truth is we cannot go on as we are - that's not to say we should abandon civilisation, far from it but recognising technological change and innovation has always shaped society and will do so again.
Q. Where do alpacas come from?
A. Alpaca-stan!
(I thank you!)
Green policies cannot be separated from redistribution of wealth and economic development of needy areas. Fitting electric heating, or heat pumps etc is only a problem if a cost burden on the Red Wall voters. If they come with subsidies etc, then not such an issue.
1890 on the City & South London (now part of the Underground's Northern Line).
Always buy a house on a hill (though not where coastal erosion is a problem like NE Norfolk).
I'm a great believer in technology and human ingenuity, and I believe it will hold the answers and make our lives even better at the same time too.
Ghislaine Maxwell is prepared to give evidence on behalf of Duke of York after he was sued for the sexual assault of a teenage girl 20 years ago.
Friends of Ms Maxwell said the socialite would support Prince Andrew’s insistence that he had never had sex with Virginia Roberts Giuffre.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/10/ghislaine-maxwell-prepared-give-evidence-behalf-prince-andrew/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
EDIT: ITER is shit, we're far more likely to have success with MAST-U and then the STEP programme.
Could the case be switched to the UK?
Lawyers with good knowledge of the case suggest that the Prince could try to force the case to be switched to the High Court in London where they could try to have it struck out on grounds of lack of evidence.
If that is unsuccessful, the Prince might also argue that he has some form of sovereign or crown immunity because he was a working member of the Royal family and part of the British state apparatus at the time of the alleged incidents.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/10/prince-andrew-duke-york-faces-us-lawsuit-happens-next/
The trick will be as to whether voters feel the same when they have to fund many of the measures and as you point out Starmers and the Greens would be far more punitive
This is the point where all betting on the next GE is most probably off, and how can anyone tell just how the costs of covid and climate change are met without serious political fallout
This is the moment politics gets very real
https://www.somersetwaste.gov.uk/service-update/
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is different. I don't know exactly how fast in this context fast is, but it could essentially slide into ocean and increase sea levels in one go without having to melt completely to do so. That would be ~5m in a lot less than 1000 years.
My shopping report. Generally the shortages are in fresh produce, although it varies. Waitrose is the worst stocked supermarket around here at the moment. Went to Sainsburys this morning. Fruit & veg, some gaps. But no fresh meat at all, except sausages, some, and pork belly, lots. So I buy sausages. Fine. I don't need beef, chicken, lamb or other kinds of pork. It's an East German approach to shopping. No-one starves.
Not much hope for me here in East Ham I fear - I'm not sure, to paraphrase Mr Starkey, I'd like to be under the sea and certainly were an octopus to appear in the garden, Mrs Stodge would not be amused.
Trouble is, when it's up there it's up to 30 times more effective at warming than CO2. But, once it's down (way down) the contributing factor it provides goes away very quickly.
So that's something - again natural gas and industry uses (including landfill) are leaky and naughty on this, as well as rice paddies and farms, particularly cattle, and there's an awful lot of microbes in them.
Ripe for bioengineering out, if you ask me.
But yes, agree that ITER will be a waste of everyone's time and money. Bureaucratic nonsense project that will be outdone by smaller, faster moving rivals.
A lot of what we love in the natural world will be extinct by the end of the century.
*the world won't go carbon neutral.There are too many selfish countries and individuals who won't make more than token efforts.
So I will do the Analysis of Scandals and all the interviews. And for light relief the Gardening Section and Tales from Italy. Leon can be the roving travel and sex correspondent.
There is a government list of which cars will have to switch to the more expensive super unleaded.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/e10-petrol-explained
Good lesson to all political sides on how quickly things can change.
East Germany led to the fantastic tv show Deutschland 83, Deutschland 86, and Deutschland 89.
Much like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl led to the second finest tv show ever, a bit of sacrifice is required for brilliant tv shows.
Unfortunately, and I say this with a heavy heart, the short-term (next 10-20 years) doesn't look good and while we may enjoy some degree of protection in our part of the world, as we've seen, for many millions, it's going to be very bad and the consequences of that will be felt here as well.
I think we need to "show" the likes of China and India (and others) the prosperity and lifestyle we have enjoyed in the West won't be denied them but it'll be achieved via a different route which won't cause the environmental damage our journey to prosperity caused.
A good life shouldn't cost the Earth.
I’m not surprised the polls support tough action given the argument is now not is climate change happening but how fast we go and the coverage of,it,is relentless be it TV shows, news articles, magazine shows, radio phone ins etc etc.
The only time support seems to wane is when Exctinction rebellion get up,to their stupid antics.
However, like supporting higher taxes, I suspect people,support,action as long as it doesn’t impact them.
Sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere is much harder, because while we're burning fossil fuels the oceans absorb a large proportion of that, and that naturally goes in reverse when you are removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as the oceans will release some of the carbon dioxide they absorbed previously.
This is why stopping burning fossil fuels is much more urgent, as those emissions are much closer to being forever, while methane emissions are much easier to deal with later.
THE GREEN ARROWS Red Arrows’ red, white and blue smoke trails are going GREEN to save the planet
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15833353/red-arrows-smoke-trails-green/
Anyway we are not,just talking about phasing out gas boilers are we. It is a whole raft of measures that are going to cost and there’s even talk of a carbon tax. Isn’t there always a tax.
I'm confident we can do it. We solved the hole in the ozone layer problem (which really was an extinction event if it had gone) and that will be fully healed by 2080. Plus, we don't hear much about acid rain destroying Scandinavian forests these days - because we got on top of it.
It will be a difficult journey, but we'll get there.
‘I’m the Daddy now’
That is why Green politics is so intrinsically left wing and requires economic justice and redistribution. Either that or it won't happen.
It's a challenge but one of many and not the biggest one.