The polling tide turning for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

Memories fading of Boris last idiocy (the attempt to avoid self isolation).

But there will certainly be more to come - Boris rarely learns from his mistakes.

There's also the improving covid situation - this should help the Conservatives for the next few months especially if things deteriorate in USA, Australia and parts of Europe.

I tend to ignore the 'horse race' poll numbers outside the runup to a confirmed election. being August I'd not trust the polls either. Nothing to see until the end of the conference season but I'll not be looking for some time.

Just watched the crash. That Danish rider has 100% got a case of roid rage.

How tiny are these gymnasts for the beam ?!

Biles is 4'8 and she's about average height amongst them with some even shorter than her. Must be easier to flip and balance when you need a booster seat for the car.

I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.

Theuniondivvie said:

I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.

Model 3LR is 360+ miles. What the fuck is she on about?

Or is this an exciting new front in the culture war?

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings

Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.

Astonishing story of how eBay employees went after some critics:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/31/business/it-has-be-known-what-was-done-us-natick-couple-harassed-by-ebay-tell-their-story-first-time/

spudgfsh said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings

Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.

They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.

China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

Except the vaccination rate in Surrey is far higher now than in Newham, so more a case of a younger population of unvaccinated people offers very little protection against Covid compared to an older population of vaccinated people

Interesting background to London flooding:

The problem is exacerbated by the way London has developed. For decades, its water table was artificially suppressed by factories tapping it. Deindustrialisation means it has been rising again since the 1980s.

https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/07/31/londons-flooding-is-sure-to-worsen

DecrepiterJohnL said:

spudgfsh said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings

Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.

They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.

China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709

On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second

LostPassword said:

Gardenwalker said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.

Allegra is having a nightmare.
This is hot on the heels of the “vote green” story.

Somebody has it in for her, I reckon.

It's self-sabotage. Her diesel is apparently third-hand, so she could tell a reasonable story about looking forward to buying an electric car, but not wanting to junk a car that's still functioning - because of the resources used when making it.

Instead she sounds like the rest of the government - we want you to buy electric cars, but they're not good enough for me.

The other thing this tiny little story tells me is that we are not - as a population - in any way psychologically ready for net zero.

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

Except the vaccination rate in Surrey is far higher now than in Newham, so more a case of a younger population of unvaccinated people offers very little protection against Covid compared to an older population of vaccinated people

Look at the dates.

It includes January and February and March 2021 when the over 60s were being prioritised for vaccination

I was reading about semi conductors on the weekend.

Does anyone know why we allowed the sell-off of the Newport Wafer Fabricator to the Chinese?

Mr. Walker, aye. But the PM (and his green enthusiast wife) are very into it.

And if recent history's taught us anything, it's that the PM's capacity for far-sighted strategic thinking (or even contemplating the immediate consequences of his actions) is not spectacular.

Quiz for today, name as many of them as possible. Thought that was Nigel Kennedy on the left but it is of course the one and only Johnnie Fingers, Aled Jones on the right, Midge Ure looks like he's got something very naughty under his Royal Stewart and I assume George Michael is the ruddy faced scaffolder behind Geldof.

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

spudgfsh said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings

Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.

They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.

China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709

On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second

PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

1= China
1= USA
3 not-Russia
4 Great Britain

CarlottaVance said:

Astonishing story of how eBay employees went after some critics:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/31/business/it-has-be-known-what-was-done-us-natick-couple-harassed-by-ebay-tell-their-story-first-time/

Let me introduce you to Sarah Lacy and Uber's attacks on her https://time.com/5023287/uber-threatened-journalist-sarah-lacy/

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

Except the vaccination rate in Surrey is far higher now than in Newham, so more a case of a younger population of unvaccinated people offers very little protection against Covid compared to an older population of vaccinated people

Look at the dates.

It includes January and February and March 2021 when the over 60s were being prioritised for vaccination

Yes, but it takes time to take effect and the point isn't the Woking figures that matter - they're relatively low because lockdown was working there - it's the figures for Newham in January that tell the story.

In late December and early to mid January it was over 80s and those in care homes being prioritised for vaccination and they have the highest death rate by age. Once they were done socioeconomic factors and the high concentration of people in the inner city meant Newham overtook Woking on deaths as the higher proportion of elderly in Woking was less significant

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

Except the vaccination rate in Surrey is far higher now than in Newham, so more a case of a younger population of unvaccinated people offers very little protection against Covid compared to an older population of vaccinated people

Look at the dates.

It includes January and February and March 2021 when the over 60s were being prioritised for vaccination

Yes, but it takes time to take effect and the point isn't the Woking figures that matter - they're relatively low because lockdown was working there - it's the figures for Newham in January that tell the story.

In late December and early to mid January it was over 80s and those in care homes being prioritised for vaccination and they have the highest death rate by age. Once they were done socioeconomic factors and the high concentration of people in the inner city meant Newham overtook Woking on deaths as the higher proportion of elderly in Woking was less significant

How do you explain that COVID deaths in St Johns were higher in both February and March than January?

The Chinese 16yo gold medallist Chenchen Guan seems to have knocked back half a bottle of vodka since dismounting. She almost fell backwards into her flag and is being manhandled into position for the cameras. Then she almost forgot to collect her medal.

Gardenwalker said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.

Allegra is having a nightmare.
This is hot on the heels of the “vote green” story.

Somebody has it in for her, I reckon.

Yep. Planting stories in the press.

turbotubbs said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.

I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).

Indeed. My mechanical engineering prof colleague is livid about the about face on diesel cars, after he bought a new Mercedes a few years ago, that was top speck for emissions etc, but now finds he can't drive into Bath in it without paying nine quid a go...

There is a speadsheet to be created here which is money saved on non-ULEZ compliant car vs extra charges incurred by paying ULEZ fees. As an existing owner the marginal cost of the charge should be seen against taking public transport (after all the aim of the charge in the first place).

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.

Allegra is having a nightmare.
This is hot on the heels of the “vote green” story.

Somebody has it in for her, I reckon.

Yep. Planting stories in the press.

Who is planting stories against Allegra Stratton and why do they bother? The Green Party gaffe came in a press interview, and her car will have been seen by any number of people. No plants needed.

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

Except the vaccination rate in Surrey is far higher now than in Newham, so more a case of a younger population of unvaccinated people offers very little protection against Covid compared to an older population of vaccinated people

Look at the dates.

It includes January and February and March 2021 when the over 60s were being prioritised for vaccination

Yes, but it takes time to take effect and the point isn't the Woking figures that matter - they're relatively low because lockdown was working there - it's the figures for Newham in January that tell the story.

In late December and early to mid January it was over 80s and those in care homes being prioritised for vaccination and they have the highest death rate by age. Once they were done socioeconomic factors and the high concentration of people in the inner city meant Newham overtook Woking on deaths as the higher proportion of elderly in Woking was less significant

How do you explain that COVID deaths in St Johns were higher in both February and March than January?

As plenty of over 80s who caught Covid in December or early January would have got it before being vaccinated or before the vaccines take full effect (which is generally a few weeks). The Case rates which peaked in December, early January would only have led to deaths in late January or February or even March

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Quiz for today, name as many of them as possible. Thought that was Nigel Kennedy on the left but it is of course the one and only Johnnie Fingers, Aled Jones on the right, Midge Ure looks like he's got something very naughty under his Royal Stewart and I assume George Michael is the ruddy faced scaffolder behind Geldof.

The Bowie cool is quite strong there.

The morass of uncool in which he's embedded may accentuate it of course..

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

Except the vaccination rate in Surrey is far higher now than in Newham, so more a case of a younger population of unvaccinated people offers very little protection against Covid compared to an older population of vaccinated people

Look at the dates.

It includes January and February and March 2021 when the over 60s were being prioritised for vaccination

Yes, but it takes time to take effect and the point isn't the Woking figures that matter - they're relatively low because lockdown was working there - it's the figures for Newham in January that tell the story.

In late December and early to mid January it was over 80s and those in care homes being prioritised for vaccination and they have the highest death rate by age. Once they were done socioeconomic factors and the high concentration of people in the inner city meant Newham overtook Woking on deaths as the higher proportion of elderly in Woking was less significant

How do you explain that COVID deaths in St Johns were higher in both February and March than January?

As plenty of over 80s who caught Covid in December or early January would have got it before being vaccinated or before the vaccines take full effect (which is generally a few weeks). The Case rates which peaked in December, early January would only have led to deaths in February or March

So how do you explain the spike in the Newham ward in January?

The OAP Brexiters caught it when working patriotically to export sprouts to Anzac?

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT

Deaths in your postcode - ONS have deaths by postcode for E&W vs historical average and from COVID:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

A good example of how a younger population on average offers very little protection against COVID:

Except the vaccination rate in Surrey is far higher now than in Newham, so more a case of a younger population of unvaccinated people offers very little protection against Covid compared to an older population of vaccinated people

Look at the dates.

It includes January and February and March 2021 when the over 60s were being prioritised for vaccination

Yes, but it takes time to take effect and the point isn't the Woking figures that matter - they're relatively low because lockdown was working there - it's the figures for Newham in January that tell the story.

In late December and early to mid January it was over 80s and those in care homes being prioritised for vaccination and they have the highest death rate by age. Once they were done socioeconomic factors and the high concentration of people in the inner city meant Newham overtook Woking on deaths as the higher proportion of elderly in Woking was less significant

How do you explain that COVID deaths in St Johns were higher in both February and March than January?

As plenty of over 80s who caught Covid in December or early January would have got it before being vaccinated or before the vaccines take full effect (which is generally a few weeks). The Case rates which peaked in December, early January would only have led to deaths in February or March

So how do you explain the spike in the Newham ward in January?

High case rates like Woking but fewer vaccinated even by mid January than Woking, given most over 80s had been vaccinated by mid January

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Quiz for today, name as many of them as possible. Thought that was Nigel Kennedy on the left but it is of course the one and only Johnnie Fingers, Aled Jones on the right, Midge Ure looks like he's got something very naughty under his Royal Stewart and I assume George Michael is the ruddy faced scaffolder behind Geldof.

The Bowie cool is quite strong there.

The morass of uncool in which he's embedded may accentuate it of course..

Amazing to see the young Michael Gove there, next to Bowie.

Here's some good news:

"Greggs to create 500 jobs as it plans 100 more stores"

Flaked parmesan over a steak bake anyone?

Leon said:

Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

Being China, do you think she has much choice about it?

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

I was reading about semi conductors on the weekend.

Does anyone know why we allowed the sell-off of the Newport Wafer Fabricator to the Chinese?

Ancient tech ...

Thanks. I assumed this was the case.

Imagine if we decided to spend x billion building up a semiconductor industry in South Wales, though.

I’d support Boris is he was for these kind of heroic industrial missions, instead of touting impossible bridges.

X0 billion.
Or even X00.

SandyRentool said:

Here's some good news:

"Greggs to create 500 jobs as it plans 100 more stores"

Flaked parmesan over a steak bake anyone?

Low productivity jobs for low productivity customers.

(Ducks).

Gardenwalker said:

SandyRentool said:

Here's some good news:

"Greggs to create 500 jobs as it plans 100 more stores"

Flaked parmesan over a steak bake anyone?

Low productivity jobs for low productivity customers.

(Ducks).

I thought that civil servants were more Pret than Greggs.

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Quiz for today, name as many of them as possible. Thought that was Nigel Kennedy on the left but it is of course the one and only Johnnie Fingers, Aled Jones on the right, Midge Ure looks like he's got something very naughty under his Royal Stewart and I assume George Michael is the ruddy faced scaffolder behind Geldof.

The Bowie cool is quite strong there.

The morass of uncool in which he's embedded may accentuate it of course..

Yes, that's very much the case. Paula looks ok and that's about it.

felix said:

Apologies if already posted.

Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
No: 51.9% (+6.1)

via @BritainElects
poll tracker, 24 Jun
Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

It is not that long since such a poll would have induced blind panic in Unionists.

Gardenwalker said:

SandyRentool said:

Here's some good news:

"Greggs to create 500 jobs as it plans 100 more stores"

Flaked parmesan over a steak bake anyone?

Low productivity jobs for low productivity customers.

(Ducks).

5 workers per store isn't low productivity - but it's a low margin good.

Leon said:

Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

The beam is the gymnastics skill I find the most mindblowing. The others I can just about imagine doing really really badly after years and years of practice, but that one, no. Not possible.

Gardenwalker said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Quiz for today, name as many of them as possible. Thought that was Nigel Kennedy on the left but it is of course the one and only Johnnie Fingers, Aled Jones on the right, Midge Ure looks like he's got something very naughty under his Royal Stewart and I assume George Michael is the ruddy faced scaffolder behind Geldof.

The Bowie cool is quite strong there.

The morass of uncool in which he's embedded may accentuate it of course..

Amazing to see the young Michael Gove there, next to Bowie.

Snorting coke off rent boys' ****s later that night, no doubt.

Gardenwalker said:

felix said:

Apologies if already posted.

Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
No: 51.9% (+6.1)

via @BritainElects
poll tracker, 24 Jun
Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

It is not that long since such a poll would have induced blind panic in Unionists.

Pre Brexit maybe, post Brexit in a country which voted 62% Remain for Yes to be only 3% higher than it got in 2014 is a great poll for Unionists and a disaster for Sturgeon

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

The beam is the gymnastics skill I find the most mindblowing. The others I can just about imagine doing really really badly after years and years of practice, but that one, no. Not possible.

Yes, agreed

It's the balance, and fearlessness. And the jumping. And the splits. OK everything

Sometimes the floor is quite inexplicable as well. How can a human leap that high?!

Taz said:

I think it was OGH who wrote a thread about US medal tally at these olympics. Looks like that was a good bet.

For the record: It was me, but I also wrote a second thread saying I thought my logic was superficial. So I'm not sure how much credit I'm entitled to. I also said that the US to win most golds at 1/8 was 'arguably value' (though I didn't tip it, and did tip them getting under 113 medals overall).

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/07/24/olympic-over-unders-the-usa-might-be-overrated/

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/07/31/my-last-bet-was-stupid-win-or-lose/

Leon said:

Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

There are 1.4 billion people in China. Let's make the unlikely assumption there are equal numbers of each age up to 70. That 1.4bn/70 gives 20 million at each age, of whom half will be female. So that is 10 million Chinese girls starting school every year.

Then just have the PE teachers scan them for any sign of talent at handstands and send the best ones for training. Likewise runners, exceptionally tall kids and so on.

Lots of countries do more-or-less this but China has more people to start with, and the authority to organise it centrally rather than rely on scouts hoping for a cut of a future star's wages. Lionel Messi was recruited by Barcelona from his Argentinian side at the age of 13. In Britain, going to the right school helps! Private schools have great facilities and professional coaches; some comprehensives might have excellent teachers with the right contacts. David Beckham and Harry Kane went to the same school, for instance. Many footballers have praised their teachers.

Taz said:

I think it was OGH who wrote a thread about US medal tally at these olympics. Looks like that was a good bet.

@Quincel iirc. Twice.

ETA ah, the author has replied with links.

Selebian said:

Anyone else tired of this constant stream of 'good news for the government' headers today?

If there's anything in this apart from noise I suspect it's negativity towards the government for cocking up and causing the massive spike in Covid cases followed by positivity as it turns out they were sensible afterall as cases go down. Plus this isolatio shambles too, of course, but not sure how many normal people noticed that.

The big picture is the decision to go ahead with 19th July was correct - so perhaps some credit coming through for that.