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The polling tide turning for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    spudgfsh said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    Quite. I think the track cycling will come back given the infrastructure available and the commitment of the team. Rowing seems in a dark place but, in some ways, having the clash brought open into the open is probably good longer-term. Sprints have been disappointing but a lot of that has been unfortunates (injuries / false start in the 100m though I don't think Hughes would have got a medal).
    Rowing is in a transition phase but they achieved 6 fourth places and 2 medals out of the 10 boats. We achieved 7 medals (2 gold) in athletics at the Rio games but I can't see where any of the medals are coming from this time around
    Yeah, as said below, I think we will get something out of the 800m women's today and there may be one or two other surprises (men's / women's 1500m, KJT, possibly a relay) but we will be down.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    edited August 2021

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    For the UK to come fourth or fifth is still a major achievement - beating all our European rivals bar Russia (who shouldn't be there, anyway). This including Germany, which is somewhat bigger and richer.

    If we do it we will have exceeded my expectations easily
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,564
    spudgfsh said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    Quite. I think the track cycling will come back given the infrastructure available and the commitment of the team. Rowing seems in a dark place but, in some ways, having the clash brought open into the open is probably good longer-term. Sprints have been disappointing but a lot of that has been unfortunates (injuries / false start in the 100m though I don't think Hughes would have got a medal).
    Rowing is in a transition phase but they achieved 6 fourth places and 2 medals out of the 10 boats. We achieved 7 medals (2 gold) in athletics at the Rio games but I can't see where any of the medals are coming from this time around
    Possibly KJT for a silver or bronze? Maybe the 4x100 relay team if we don't do something idiotic like a false start. Should at least medal but unlikely to get the gold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
    Yes and No still won with 55%.

    However No is now clearly under 60% and both sides are about 50/50 so neither side are willing to risk it
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,877
    F1: surprisingly good points record for AlphaTauri:
    https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1422500877177327645

    Also, Bottas' moment means Norris was unable to extend his record consecutive points finishes (McLaren) run, alas.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,592

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    19-13-18 in Bejing

    13-16-13 so far with guaranteed medals still to come

    I think we will match Bejing
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,564
    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    For the UK to come fourth or fifth is still a major achievement - beating all our European rivals bar Russia (who shouldn't be there, anyway). This including Germany, which is somewhat bigger and richer.

    If we do it we will out have exceeded my expectations easily
    Yes, we've had an overperformance on the BMX bikes and in the swimming pool which will make up for our very poor rowers and slightly under par track cyclists. I think for 2024 the track team will be back, they know what the benchmarks are and what the rest if the world is capable of, the rowers seem like they'll need two cycles to get back to the top. The current elite performance directors seem like massive idiots.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,034
    edited August 2021
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
    I can't say that I've experienced any difficulty buying food lately.

    And, I'm old enough to remember when low unemployment was considered a deseirable thing.
    I've not seen any food shortages since yesterday. Since most of us shop in one store, once a week, it is quite possible not to have been personally affected. Most of the problems are of distribution, rather than supply or panic buying, so it is likely that even if you can't buy flaked parmesan in one shop, it will be in stock next door.
    Unfortunately flaked parmesan is not in stock at my local co-op, indeed it never has been as far as I can tell. They do have the powdered stuff that tasted of sawdust and smelly socks if that is any help to desperate PB parmesan hunters.
    Some people here seem to have remarkably adventurous lives, if they have tried eating smelly socks!
    I'm pleased to say Waitrose have an ample supply of Parmesan in big blocks. Little sign of shortages other than the normal low stock of some items after a busy day, probably because it's a town centre store and they are not allowed to have deliveries on Sunday. The one section that has been low for months, however, is the tinned fish section with some products going out of stock for weeks, annoyingly the sardines in olive oil which I rather like.
    Isn't the point that as a Londoner Sean is not capable of actually grating his own?
    Surely no one can count themselves to be successful in life if they have to flake their own parmesan?
    It's a dream goal which inspires working class kids the length and breadth of the nation, to escape the parmesan flaking drudgery of their hellish existence.

    I think it is a whole chapter in Das Kapital.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,536
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
    Yes and No still won with 55%.

    However No is now clearly under 60% and both sides are about 50/50 so neither side are willing to risk it
    Neither side are willing to risk it?
    But I'm told incessantly on here that only one side can consent to a referendum.
    By you, in fact.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    For the UK to come fourth or fifth is still a major achievement - beating all our European rivals bar Russia (who shouldn't be there, anyway). This including Germany, which is somewhat bigger and richer.

    If we do it we will out have exceeded my expectations easily
    Yes, we've had an overperformance on the BMX bikes and in the swimming pool which will make up for our very poor rowers and slightly under par track cyclists. I think for 2024 the track team will be back, they know what the benchmarks are and what the rest if the world is capable of, the rowers seem like they'll need two cycles to get back to the top. The current elite performance directors seem like massive idiots.
    I was quite encouraged by the vicious rammie in the rowing world following their debacle. A lot of people REALLY don't like losing, especially when they lose by coming 4th, and SportUK came in for real criticism for giving so much cash to rowing for so little return

    They looked chastened, and cowed. They know they need public goodwill for a minor sport like rowing to get anything. I reckon they might perk up quite quickly, performance-wise
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,564

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    19-13-18 in Bejing

    13-16-13 so far with guaranteed medals still to come

    I think we will match Bejing
    A lot depends on how the rest of the track cycling shakes out in terms of golds. We've got maybe 2-3 more chances of gold on the track and then a few boxing matches to come in. Can't see what else we've got left in terms of gold medal shots.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for foxy

    I'm not gonna argue with you about Brexit. Enough for now. We can never agree. For me the sovereignty and democracy arguments trump the others, for you they don't. In the end there is no true answer, it is a matter of personal disposition

    But I am going to argue with the idea that UK has a higher Covid death rate than the EU

    Here's the Economist list of Covid Excess Deaths

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    There are 14 EU countries with higher death rates than the UK, including big countries like Spain, Poland and Italy. So we are behind most EU countries, If you take all of Europe - is that what you meant? - the UK is even further down the list

    I tried to tell this to a lefty friend of mine the other day: that the UK death rate, while depressing, is not uniquely grim. He wasn't having it. "No, Britain has the worst death rate in the world!". It is some weird untrue meme which has got lodged in people's heads - it was true for about four days in January - yet it still clings on, despite ample proof that it is very wrong.

    Proof is based on data and who needs that when you have faith.

    Its similar to the bizarre obsession that there is a shortage of food in the supermarkets.

    Or how the "there will be mass unemployment" morphed into "there's a labour shortage".

    Straight out of Orwell - Oceania is at war with Eurasia morphs into Oceania is at war with Eastasia.
    I can't say that I've experienced any difficulty buying food lately.

    And, I'm old enough to remember when low unemployment was considered a deseirable thing.
    I've not seen any food shortages since yesterday. Since most of us shop in one store, once a week, it is quite possible not to have been personally affected. Most of the problems are of distribution, rather than supply or panic buying, so it is likely that even if you can't buy flaked parmesan in one shop, it will be in stock next door.
    Unfortunately flaked parmesan is not in stock at my local co-op, indeed it never has been as far as I can tell. They do have the powdered stuff that tasted of sawdust and smelly socks if that is any help to desperate PB parmesan hunters.
    Some people here seem to have remarkably adventurous lives, if they have tried eating smelly socks!
    I'm pleased to say Waitrose have an ample supply of Parmesan in big blocks. Little sign of shortages other than the normal low stock of some items after a busy day, probably because it's a town centre store and they are not allowed to have deliveries on Sunday. The one section that has been low for months, however, is the tinned fish section with some products going out of stock for weeks, annoyingly the sardines in olive oil which I rather like.
    Isn't the point that as a Londoner Sean is not capable of actually grating his own?
    Surely no one can count themselves to be successful in life if they have to flake their own parmesan?
    It's a dream goal which inspires working class kids the length and breadth of the nation, to escape the parmesan flaking drudgery of their hellish existence.

    I think it is a whole chapter in Das Kapital.
    But it's tough. So tough. For some of these kids, dressage is the only way out of the ghetto.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
    Yes and No still won with 55%.

    However No is now clearly under 60% and both sides are about 50/50 so neither side are willing to risk it
    Neither side are willing to risk it?
    But I'm told incessantly on here that only one side can consent to a referendum.
    By you, in fact.
    Both can be true, you dolt
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    No, he should have voted for Mays deal. It would have torn the tories in two and Labour would have won the election easily, and perhaps many more to come. By doing what he did it allowed Boris to become PM, get rid of the remainers in the tory ranks, present a case to the British Public regarding honouring the Brexit vote and gaining the biggest election win for the tories in decades. It ws SKS who won the election for the tories. How he could not see the easy victory for LAbour that was right in front of his face is amazing. And his actions have ruined any chance he had of winning any future elections.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,481
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    The Libs and SNP broke ranks. Lab didn't want that election.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,298

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    19-13-18 in Bejing

    13-16-13 so far with guaranteed medals still to come

    I think we will match Bejing
    Team GB were the only country to do better in the Olympics after the one they hosted than the one they hosted. We'll get somewhere between the 51 medals we got in Beijing and the 65 in London. That's likely to be the long term average given the lottery funding. It'll take some cataclysm for us to go back to the pre-Sydney levels of medals
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,564
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    For the UK to come fourth or fifth is still a major achievement - beating all our European rivals bar Russia (who shouldn't be there, anyway). This including Germany, which is somewhat bigger and richer.

    If we do it we will out have exceeded my expectations easily
    Yes, we've had an overperformance on the BMX bikes and in the swimming pool which will make up for our very poor rowers and slightly under par track cyclists. I think for 2024 the track team will be back, they know what the benchmarks are and what the rest if the world is capable of, the rowers seem like they'll need two cycles to get back to the top. The current elite performance directors seem like massive idiots.
    I was quite encouraged by the vicious rammie in the rowing world following their debacle. A lot of people REALLY don't like losing, especially when they lose by coming 4th, and SportUK came in for real criticism for giving so much cash to rowing for so little return

    They looked chastened, and cowed. They know they need public goodwill for a minor sport like rowing to get anything. I reckon they might perk up quite quickly, performance-wise
    Hmm, the noises in The Times suggest that the elite performance directors are going to plough on with the current approach of "medals and more" despite that approach having a big hand in the rubbish results in Tokyo. When the Wokes get to the top they really do believe everyone who disagrees with them is evil, the only way to change it is to change management and it's up to the BOA to step in and replace the management with a more results focussed team.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,770
    Leon said:



    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    The Red Wall shit munchers didn't understand what was happening at the time. They definitely don't remember the arcane details of who did what from a year ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,034

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    Second in the world was a high water mark. It'd be no failure to not me able to sustain that every time.

    We might get pretty close though, and considering some disappoitments in cycling and particularly rowing that is pretty remarkable.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,181
    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    No, he should have voted for Mays deal. It would have torn the tories in two and Labour would have won the election easily, and perhaps many more to come. By doing what he did it allowed Boris to become PM, get rid of the remainers in the tory ranks, present a case to the British Public regarding honouring the Brexit vote and gaining the biggest election win for the tories in decades. It ws SKS who won the election for the tories. How he could not see the easy victory for LAbour that was right in front of his face is amazing. And his actions have ruined any chance he had of winning any future elections.
    Ah yes, of course. You're right


    That period of politics was so roiled and confused I forget. Not helped by a global plague coming immediately after, somewhat obscuring the memories

    We have feasted on too much history


    But yes, terrible errors by SKS - because he thought he could overturn Brexit itself.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,912
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    For the UK to come fourth or fifth is still a major achievement - beating all our European rivals bar Russia (who shouldn't be there, anyway). This including Germany, which is somewhat bigger and richer.

    If we do it we will have exceeded my expectations easily
    We all know that the Olympics is 3 competitions.

    1) USA v. Russia v. China
    2) Host v. The Amount of Money they Spent
    3) GB v. Aus
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    He was. If you listen to the vox pop of Red Wall voters, his name popped up remarkably frequently as someone who wanted to frustrate Brexit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    The Red Wall shit munchers didn't understand what was happening at the time. They definitely don't remember the arcane details of who did what from a year ago.
    I reckon the "shit munchers" are a bit more intuitive than you presume. Starmer WAS a high profile Remainer. People only have to remember that "vaguely" for it to hit home

    Otherwise, how else do you explain his relatively appalling polling, especially on "more or less truthful than Boris", where he comes out roughly equal?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,034
    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Yes, polling makes no difference except as ephemera, since no one genuinely believes polling one way or another justified action or inaction (given if they do beleive it, they implicitly accept their position should reverse as polls move, which they won't).

    I feel like longer term the UK is in a weaker position since the very high support for Sindy is not going away, even if the ebbs and flows mean a win (if/when a vote happens) is not certain, but short term its awkward for Sturgeon since however unreasonable it may be for the UK gov to refuse to engage on the subject meaningfully, and however much that cannot be sustained forever, it must be frustrating in the immediacy.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,298

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    Keir Starmer was shadow Brexit secretary. other than JC as high profile on the subject as you get from the opposition
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MaxPB said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    19-13-18 in Bejing

    13-16-13 so far with guaranteed medals still to come

    I think we will match Bejing
    A lot depends on how the rest of the track cycling shakes out in terms of golds. We've got maybe 2-3 more chances of gold on the track and then a few boxing matches to come in. Can't see what else we've got left in terms of gold medal shots.
    There are probably a few more obscure events (e.g. canoeing) where we might snatch a gold. I think we will just scrape in with Beijing on Golds but obviously better on Silvers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    He was. If you listen to the vox pop of Red Wall voters, his name popped up remarkably frequently as someone who wanted to frustrate Brexit.
    Indeed. People forget he was Shadow BREXIT Secretary. And he wanted a 2nd vote

    "Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for second referendum on any Boris Johnson Brexit deal
    ‘After years of failed promises, failed deals and Tory divisions, there is only one way out: put it to the people’"

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-keir-starmer-second-referendum-350112

    "Labour could back Brexit bill if second referendum attached, says Starmer

    Shadow Brexit secretary goes further than party leader in saying Labour could back deal"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/labour-could-back-brexit-bill-if-second-referendum-attached-says-starmer

    "Sir Keir Starmer: Labour is committed to a second referendum"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-labour-is-committed-to-a-second-referendum-a4243906.html


    Ooops
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,481
    edited August 2021

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    A seductive view if you're a Leaver but flatly contradicted by the facts on the ground. 18 months ago when Starmer's Brexit "duplicity" would have been fresher in memory than it is today his ratings were good and Labour were polling well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,877
    Why don't India do better? The medal table (BBC) has them on one silver and one bronze.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326
    edited August 2021

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    To an extent.

    The new Redfield poll has Boris beating Burnham as preferred PM by 45% to 23%, which is actually slightly better than he does against Starmer who he beats 44% to 28%.

    Boris' closest rival comes from his own party in the form of Sunak but voters still prefer Boris to Sunak as PM via 37% to 30%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-2-august-2021/

    At the moment Boris is like Blair pre Iraq or Thatcher post Falklands, master of all he surveys
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,564
    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    19-13-18 in Bejing

    13-16-13 so far with guaranteed medals still to come

    I think we will match Bejing
    A lot depends on how the rest of the track cycling shakes out in terms of golds. We've got maybe 2-3 more chances of gold on the track and then a few boxing matches to come in. Can't see what else we've got left in terms of gold medal shots.
    There are probably a few more obscure events (e.g. canoeing) where we might snatch a gold. I think we will just scrape in with Beijing on Golds but obviously better on Silvers.
    If we manage to do that it's a good games for us, way above expectations heading in. Hopefully the failures from this games can be addressed for 2024 as well and some of the silvers become gold and some of those 4ths become medals.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,034
    God bless the internet, I defy people not to smile at things like a video of an orangutan putting on sun glasses

    https://twitter.com/TiredActor/status/1422010079650402307

    Have a great day everyone.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,952
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    No, he should have voted for Mays deal. It would have torn the tories in two and Labour would have won the election easily, and perhaps many more to come. By doing what he did it allowed Boris to become PM, get rid of the remainers in the tory ranks, present a case to the British Public regarding honouring the Brexit vote and gaining the biggest election win for the tories in decades. It ws SKS who won the election for the tories. How he could not see the easy victory for LAbour that was right in front of his face is amazing. And his actions have ruined any chance he had of winning any future elections.
    Ah yes, of course. You're right


    That period of politics was so roiled and confused I forget. Not helped by a global plague coming immediately after, somewhat obscuring the memories

    We have feasted on too much history


    But yes, terrible errors by SKS - because he thought he could overturn Brexit itself.
    Are we seriously blaming Starmer for Labour strategic errors on Brexit in 2019? He was nominally responsible for their policy, and (depending on your viewpoint) either did a reasonable job of making it seem like they had one, or a godawful job of explaining what it was. But I think it's clear that Corbyn and the leadership office was calling the shots on the big picture stuff, like what to vote for and when.

    Anyway, I'm not sure Starmer's problem is so much what he did in 2019 - a lot of Leavers probably wouldn't have noticed, and some Remainers might actually give him credit for it. The issues are that he's dull as ditchwater, hasn't got a clear vision for the country (or can't articulate it) and needs to spend serious time sorting out his own party discipline before he can even think about demonstrating to the country that they're ready for government.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    spudgfsh said:

    ping said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    I can't see what issue would cause it. the Tories have united the Right of politics quite effectively and there are no wedge issues at the moment which would split them. unlike the left where the future relationship with the EU is now the wedge issue and the big difference between Labour and the Dib Lems.
    The green agenda has the most potential as a right vs centre-right wedge issue, I recon.

    The righting podcasts/blogs that I keep an eye on are currently getting exercised over Trans rights, but I don’t think that is really potent enough to impact VI

    Islamophobia - I think this only becomes a wedge issue if there are many more serious terror attacks. Boris has this angle covered, with his letterbox comments. He can also wheel out the Saj when necessary, for defence.

    The only other potential wedge issue coming down the line would be tax. But I think a recession that necessitated serious tax rises would probably unite the right, rather than split it.
    I wait to be proven wrong but I can't see the Green agenda being the wedge issue.
    Green issues and animal welfare certainly divide some Tories - you've got people like Lord Mancroft saying that an advisory committee on animal sentience amounts to "lunatics taking over the asylum", vs people like Goldsmith who are 100% behind the green/welfare agenda. On the whole, the welfare side have all the momentum and I know Green Party and Labour people who are impressed and think Labour has been successfully outflanked by the Tory green agenda. But I don't think the old hunting'n'shooting wing has the firepower any longer to organise a threat from the right.

    Hunting and shooting are on the wrong side of history, and those lobbying for them inside parliament and out are woefully inept, as you'll see in a forthcoming prosecution. They won't therefore split the parliamentary party. But but but the tories are going to take a serious one-off punishment hit in the blue wall at the next election for not reinstating hunting, and for Dominic Raab and Princess Nut Nut. There's an awful, awful lot of Tories like T May who are instinctively in favour of hunting in the same way as they are in favour of the C of E, despite never having attended a church service/meet other than midnight mass/Boxing Day on foot.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited August 2021

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    It depends somewhat what you use as the benchmark. Generally hosts have a huge boost, a small slip back 4 years later, and then a big drop-off 4 years after that as the home-benefit wears off entirely. We look likely to drop off far less compared to 2012/16 than most hosts do. That's why Ladbrokes and others had out total medal line so low compared to our results.

    Matching London or Rio would be astonishing. Being around the same as Beijing would be normal.


  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,770
    Leon said:



    Otherwise, how else do you explain his relatively appalling polling, especially on "more or less truthful than Boris", where he comes out roughly equal?

    Because he is, what my late mother would have described as, 'a big wooden bugger'. He just doesn't connect with people no matter what he's saying and couldn't sell JRM a cilice.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,481

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    No, he should have voted for Mays deal. It would have torn the tories in two and Labour would have won the election easily, and perhaps many more to come. By doing what he did it allowed Boris to become PM, get rid of the remainers in the tory ranks, present a case to the British Public regarding honouring the Brexit vote and gaining the biggest election win for the tories in decades. It ws SKS who won the election for the tories. How he could not see the easy victory for LAbour that was right in front of his face is amazing. And his actions have ruined any chance he had of winning any future elections.
    The party would not have allowed it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    He was. If you listen to the vox pop of Red Wall voters, his name popped up remarkably frequently as someone who wanted to frustrate Brexit.
    Indeed. People forget he was Shadow BREXIT Secretary. And he wanted a 2nd vote

    "Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for second referendum on any Boris Johnson Brexit deal
    ‘After years of failed promises, failed deals and Tory divisions, there is only one way out: put it to the people’"

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-keir-starmer-second-referendum-350112

    "Labour could back Brexit bill if second referendum attached, says Starmer

    Shadow Brexit secretary goes further than party leader in saying Labour could back deal"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/labour-could-back-brexit-bill-if-second-referendum-attached-says-starmer

    "Sir Keir Starmer: Labour is committed to a second referendum"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-labour-is-committed-to-a-second-referendum-a4243906.html


    Ooops
    Burnham meanwhile despite backing Remain in 2016 said he would back Leave in a second EU referendum if we left with a deal close to the CU
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-second-referendum-andy-burnham-remain-corbyn-a9219651.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    40,000 cases in Iran. A record high for the whole pandemic. 18 months in

    Thailand, 18,000 cases, also a record high, but they have not had about nine lethal waves like Iran

    WTF is going on in Iran?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,536
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:


    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    A seductive view if you're a Leaver but flatly contradicted by the facts on the ground. 18 months ago when Starmer's Brexit "duplicity" would have been fresher in memory than it is today his ratings were good and Labour were polling well.
    Careful, you're pissing on a developing PB afternoon meme there. They'll just go back to their UFOs and Wuhan labs now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    No, he should have voted for Mays deal. It would have torn the tories in two and Labour would have won the election easily, and perhaps many more to come. By doing what he did it allowed Boris to become PM, get rid of the remainers in the tory ranks, present a case to the British Public regarding honouring the Brexit vote and gaining the biggest election win for the tories in decades. It ws SKS who won the election for the tories. How he could not see the easy victory for LAbour that was right in front of his face is amazing. And his actions have ruined any chance he had of winning any future elections.
    Except you are forgetting had Labour backed Brexit with May's deal they would have lost as many Remainers to the LDs as the Tories lost Leavers to the Brexit Party with May's deal
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    He was. If you listen to the vox pop of Red Wall voters, his name popped up remarkably frequently as someone who wanted to frustrate Brexit.
    Indeed. People forget he was Shadow BREXIT Secretary. And he wanted a 2nd vote

    "Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for second referendum on any Boris Johnson Brexit deal
    ‘After years of failed promises, failed deals and Tory divisions, there is only one way out: put it to the people’"

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-keir-starmer-second-referendum-350112

    "Labour could back Brexit bill if second referendum attached, says Starmer

    Shadow Brexit secretary goes further than party leader in saying Labour could back deal"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/labour-could-back-brexit-bill-if-second-referendum-attached-says-starmer

    "Sir Keir Starmer: Labour is committed to a second referendum"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-labour-is-committed-to-a-second-referendum-a4243906.html


    Ooops
    Burnham meanwhile despite backing Remain in 2016 said he would back Leave in a second EU referendum if we left with a deal close to the CU
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-second-referendum-andy-burnham-remain-corbyn-a9219651.html
    HYUFD, you and I are agreed on this, as on so much

    Burnham is a much cannier politician than Si Kir "Royale" Starmer. He foresaw all this

    Labour need to get him a constituency ASAP. He cannot do WORSE than Starmer
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,345
    Leon said:

    40,000 cases in Iran. A record high for the whole pandemic. 18 months in

    Thailand, 18,000 cases, also a record high, but they have not had about nine lethal waves like Iran

    WTF is going on in Iran?

    Follow @aliostad on twitter. Very informative.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    40,000 cases in Iran. A record high for the whole pandemic. 18 months in

    Thailand, 18,000 cases, also a record high, but they have not had about nine lethal waves like Iran

    WTF is going on in Iran?

    China is back on the radar......lockdowns being deployed again in some cities, stopping public transport, 10s of millions being tested.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,481
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    The Red Wall shit munchers didn't understand what was happening at the time. They definitely don't remember the arcane details of who did what from a year ago.
    I reckon the "shit munchers" are a bit more intuitive than you presume. Starmer WAS a high profile Remainer. People only have to remember that "vaguely" for it to hit home

    Otherwise, how else do you explain his relatively appalling polling, especially on "more or less truthful than Boris", where he comes out roughly equal?
    But how to explain his good ratings - personal and party - in early 2020. That was very soon after he'd tried to strangle Brexit.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    So you would have gone for Rebecca Wrong Daily?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    No, he should have voted for Mays deal. It would have torn the tories in two and Labour would have won the election easily, and perhaps many more to come. By doing what he did it allowed Boris to become PM, get rid of the remainers in the tory ranks, present a case to the British Public regarding honouring the Brexit vote and gaining the biggest election win for the tories in decades. It ws SKS who won the election for the tories. How he could not see the easy victory for LAbour that was right in front of his face is amazing. And his actions have ruined any chance he had of winning any future elections.
    Except you are forgetting had Labour backed Brexit with May's deal they would have lost as many Remainers to the LDs as the Tories lost Leavers to the Brexit Party with May's deal
    It would have torn the tories in two, then who knows what would have happened
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    The Red Wall shit munchers didn't understand what was happening at the time. They definitely don't remember the arcane details of who did what from a year ago.
    I reckon the "shit munchers" are a bit more intuitive than you presume. Starmer WAS a high profile Remainer. People only have to remember that "vaguely" for it to hit home

    Otherwise, how else do you explain his relatively appalling polling, especially on "more or less truthful than Boris", where he comes out roughly equal?
    But how to explain his good ratings - personal and party - in early 2020. That was very soon after he'd tried to strangle Brexit.
    A brief Xmas honeymoon, then everyone remembered what a Remoaning dick he is
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    kinabalu said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    A seductive view if you're a Leaver but flatly contradicted by the facts on the ground. 18 months ago when Starmer's Brexit "duplicity" would have been fresher in memory than it is today his ratings were good and Labour were polling well.
    So why are Labour doing so badly, its not just in the polls, some Local by-election results recently have also been woeful. Its the invisible Lib Dems who are improving, not Labour
  • theProletheProle Posts: 924
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Yep. Strange criticism and a strange explanation.

    Me - I'm waiting for a credible electric that can tow 2 tons, and take a decent load.
    Model X has 2,300kg braked towing capacity.
    What does that do to the range?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,034
    edited August 2021
    Ha, I watched this movie in the cinema on Sunday and I just knew there was going to be a story about this nonsense as people worked up a fake outrage.

    Disney's newest film Jungle Cruise is facing criticism because of a lack of "genuine representation" when it comes to LGBTQ+ characters...

    Three year's ago Whitehall, who is a straight actor, was controversially cast as Disney's first out and officially gay character, named MacGregor in the film. Now, following the movie's release, the studio has been criticised again for a scene where MacGregor reveals his sexuality.

    In the scene, he tells Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's character Frank that he broke off relationships - described as "engagements" in the film - with three women because his "interests happily lay elsewhere".

    The character then thanks his sister for supporting him after he wasn't accepted by the rest of their family.

    However members of the LGBTQ+ community and others have criticised the film on social media because the character doesn't specifically say that he is 'gay'.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/58027620

    There is actually a follow up line where he is pretty clear about the issue being about who he loves. It may not mention the word gay but there is no ambiguity there.

    Frankly I'm more surprised the confected 'outrage' is not about him being the comic relief of the film and how that reflects poorly on gay people or some rubbish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    You mean allowing the election?

    Yes, I was pondering that the other day. Why did he do it?
    No, he should have voted for Mays deal. It would have torn the tories in two and Labour would have won the election easily, and perhaps many more to come. By doing what he did it allowed Boris to become PM, get rid of the remainers in the tory ranks, present a case to the British Public regarding honouring the Brexit vote and gaining the biggest election win for the tories in decades. It ws SKS who won the election for the tories. How he could not see the easy victory for LAbour that was right in front of his face is amazing. And his actions have ruined any chance he had of winning any future elections.
    Except you are forgetting had Labour backed Brexit with May's deal they would have lost as many Remainers to the LDs as the Tories lost Leavers to the Brexit Party with May's deal
    It would have torn the tories in two, then who knows what would have happened
    Something like the 2019 European elections, the Brexit Party and LDs would have surged and the May Tories and Corbyn Labour collapsed
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,298

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    So you would have gone for Rebecca Wrong Daily?
    The problem they had was the SKS was the best of the bunch. the better candidates were not MPs (Burnham / Khan). The reason SKS and BJ won their leadership contests easily is there is very few MPs in either party who'd be considered as a potential PM with the charisma to take it to the opposition. this is why we ended up in 2017 with JC v TM.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    kinabalu said:


    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    A seductive view if you're a Leaver but flatly contradicted by the facts on the ground. 18 months ago when Starmer's Brexit "duplicity" would have been fresher in memory than it is today his ratings were good and Labour were polling well.
    Careful, you're pissing on a developing PB afternoon meme there. They'll just go back to their UFOs and Wuhan labs now.
    I'm rather indifferent on the first, not on the second. However, both are views which received a lot of ridicule but now seem a lot more credible (arguably the latter more than the former).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    He was. If you listen to the vox pop of Red Wall voters, his name popped up remarkably frequently as someone who wanted to frustrate Brexit.
    Indeed. People forget he was Shadow BREXIT Secretary. And he wanted a 2nd vote

    "Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for second referendum on any Boris Johnson Brexit deal
    ‘After years of failed promises, failed deals and Tory divisions, there is only one way out: put it to the people’"

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-keir-starmer-second-referendum-350112

    "Labour could back Brexit bill if second referendum attached, says Starmer

    Shadow Brexit secretary goes further than party leader in saying Labour could back deal"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/labour-could-back-brexit-bill-if-second-referendum-attached-says-starmer

    "Sir Keir Starmer: Labour is committed to a second referendum"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-labour-is-committed-to-a-second-referendum-a4243906.html


    Ooops
    Burnham meanwhile despite backing Remain in 2016 said he would back Leave in a second EU referendum if we left with a deal close to the CU
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-second-referendum-andy-burnham-remain-corbyn-a9219651.html
    HYUFD, you and I are agreed on this, as on so much

    Burnham is a much cannier politician than Si Kir "Royale" Starmer. He foresaw all this

    Labour need to get him a constituency ASAP. He cannot do WORSE than Starmer
    Indeed, though Burnham's current plan seems to be to stay as Mayor of Manchester and get a seat only for the next general election so that if Starmer loses to Boris he would then be heir apparent and leader in waiting
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    40,000 cases in Iran. A record high for the whole pandemic. 18 months in

    Thailand, 18,000 cases, also a record high, but they have not had about nine lethal waves like Iran

    WTF is going on in Iran?

    Follow @aliostad on twitter. Very informative.
    Thanks (I think)

    Just checked. Christ, that's grisly. Iran has been in permanent crisis since about Feb last year. God knows what their real death toll is

    That guy says they have less than 10% of the country vaxxed, and most of the vaxxed have had Sinopharm

    God help them
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    edited August 2021
    "Iran’s health system could collapse amid a ‘catastrophic’ COVID surge, ​warns the country’s health minister https://aje.io/e4sfqu"

    https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1421896246638350336?s=20

    Meanwhile, Iranian dissidents think the real death toll in the country is 338,000

    https://twitter.com/iran_policy/status/1419833164214595588?s=20
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    So you would have gone for Rebecca Wrong Daily?
    Definitely a woman, definitely someone not tainted by Brexit.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    He was. If you listen to the vox pop of Red Wall voters, his name popped up remarkably frequently as someone who wanted to frustrate Brexit.
    Indeed. People forget he was Shadow BREXIT Secretary. And he wanted a 2nd vote

    "Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for second referendum on any Boris Johnson Brexit deal
    ‘After years of failed promises, failed deals and Tory divisions, there is only one way out: put it to the people’"

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-keir-starmer-second-referendum-350112

    "Labour could back Brexit bill if second referendum attached, says Starmer

    Shadow Brexit secretary goes further than party leader in saying Labour could back deal"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/labour-could-back-brexit-bill-if-second-referendum-attached-says-starmer

    "Sir Keir Starmer: Labour is committed to a second referendum"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-labour-is-committed-to-a-second-referendum-a4243906.html


    Ooops
    Burnham meanwhile despite backing Remain in 2016 said he would back Leave in a second EU referendum if we left with a deal close to the CU
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-second-referendum-andy-burnham-remain-corbyn-a9219651.html
    HYUFD, you and I are agreed on this, as on so much

    Burnham is a much cannier politician than Si Kir "Royale" Starmer. He foresaw all this

    Labour need to get him a constituency ASAP. He cannot do WORSE than Starmer
    Indeed, though Burnham's current plan seems to be to stay as Mayor of Manchester and get a seat only for the next general election so that if Starmer loses to Boris he would then be heir apparent and leader in waiting
    Burnham is overrated. Most of what he has "done" in GM was built off the back of a very good Manchester City Council leadership (and I say that as a Conservative).

    He would also get toasted when he is in the firing line. Staffs for a start.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    theProle said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Yep. Strange criticism and a strange explanation.

    Me - I'm waiting for a credible electric that can tow 2 tons, and take a decent load.
    Model X has 2,300kg braked towing capacity.
    What does that do to the range?
    isuzu dmax 3,500 kg, entry level £21,000 + vat
    Model X 2,250 kg, entry level £82,000

    And as you say, probably about 70 miles in winter with the lights and heater on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    "Iran’s health system could collapse amid a ‘catastrophic’ COVID surge, ​warns the country’s health minister https://aje.io/e4sfqu"

    https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1421896246638350336?s=20

    When the dust settles we are going to find out a whole bost of countries had far far worse death tolls than reported. India it is thought to be many times the official numbers. Brazil have been in permanent crisis throughout the pandemic.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kle4 said:

    Ha, I watched this movie in the cinema on Sunday and I just knew there was going to be a story about this nonsense as people worked up a fake outrage.

    Disney's newest film Jungle Cruise is facing criticism because of a lack of "genuine representation" when it comes to LGBTQ+ characters...

    Three year's ago Whitehall, who is a straight actor, was controversially cast as Disney's first out and officially gay character, named MacGregor in the film. Now, following the movie's release, the studio has been criticised again for a scene where MacGregor reveals his sexuality.

    In the scene, he tells Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's character Frank that he broke off relationships - described as "engagements" in the film - with three women because his "interests happily lay elsewhere".

    The character then thanks his sister for supporting him after he wasn't accepted by the rest of their family.

    However members of the LGBTQ+ community and others have criticised the film on social media because the character doesn't specifically say that he is 'gay'.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/58027620

    There is actually a follow up line where he is pretty clear about the issue being about who he loves. It may not mention the word gay but there is no ambiguity there.

    Frankly I'm more surprised the confected 'outrage' is not about him being the comic relief of the film and how that reflects poorly on gay people or some rubbish.

    I was about to post on that, what a crack-up.

    Surprisingly robust response by Disney I have to say. None of the usual "I'm sorry if we have caused offence..."
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Wuhan's got Delta, per radio 4. Heart of stone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    IshmaelZ said:

    Wuhan's got Delta, per radio 4. Heart of stone.

    Delta laughs at lockdowns. Quarantines can't contain it

    Luckily for China, they have a good vaccine programme and much of the country is jabbed, they should be OK

    Unvaxxed countries (like Iran) that get hit by Delta are in for a world of pain. Vaccines are the only way
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326
    edited August 2021
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    He was. If you listen to the vox pop of Red Wall voters, his name popped up remarkably frequently as someone who wanted to frustrate Brexit.
    Indeed. People forget he was Shadow BREXIT Secretary. And he wanted a 2nd vote

    "Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer calls for second referendum on any Boris Johnson Brexit deal
    ‘After years of failed promises, failed deals and Tory divisions, there is only one way out: put it to the people’"

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-keir-starmer-second-referendum-350112

    "Labour could back Brexit bill if second referendum attached, says Starmer

    Shadow Brexit secretary goes further than party leader in saying Labour could back deal"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/20/labour-could-back-brexit-bill-if-second-referendum-attached-says-starmer

    "Sir Keir Starmer: Labour is committed to a second referendum"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-labour-is-committed-to-a-second-referendum-a4243906.html


    Ooops
    Burnham meanwhile despite backing Remain in 2016 said he would back Leave in a second EU referendum if we left with a deal close to the CU
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-second-referendum-andy-burnham-remain-corbyn-a9219651.html
    HYUFD, you and I are agreed on this, as on so much

    Burnham is a much cannier politician than Si Kir "Royale" Starmer. He foresaw all this

    Labour need to get him a constituency ASAP. He cannot do WORSE than Starmer
    Indeed, though Burnham's current plan seems to be to stay as Mayor of Manchester and get a seat only for the next general election so that if Starmer loses to Boris he would then be heir apparent and leader in waiting
    Burnham is overrated. Most of what he has "done" in GM was built off the back of a very good Manchester City Council leadership (and I say that as a Conservative).

    He would also get toasted when he is in the firing line. Staffs for a start.
    He is not perfect but short of David Miliband giving up his $1 million a year salary as head of International Rescue in NYC to come and try and rescue the Labour Party again, Burnham is the best Labour have got other than Starmer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,481
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    The Red Wall shit munchers didn't understand what was happening at the time. They definitely don't remember the arcane details of who did what from a year ago.
    I reckon the "shit munchers" are a bit more intuitive than you presume. Starmer WAS a high profile Remainer. People only have to remember that "vaguely" for it to hit home

    Otherwise, how else do you explain his relatively appalling polling, especially on "more or less truthful than Boris", where he comes out roughly equal?
    But how to explain his good ratings - personal and party - in early 2020. That was very soon after he'd tried to strangle Brexit.
    A brief Xmas honeymoon, then everyone remembered what a Remoaning dick he is
    I think we have a case of projecting personal feelings onto the public at large. That's what you and Nerys are doing. Isam does it too on this very same point. You guys think Starmer's Remoanerdom SHOULD make him toxic and unelectable so you attribute his current poor ratings to his Remoanerdom, ignoring that he had good ratings when his Remoanerdom was more recent and relevant. More likely his slump was caused by the major event that co-incides with it - the pandemic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,592

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    So you would have gone for Rebecca Wrong Daily?
    Definitely a woman, definitely someone not tainted by Brexit.
    Same reasons I voted for Nandy
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Heard on the pole vault commentary:

    "Nilson: The tallest man in this competition. Five metres eighty seven."

    He was referring to the height of the vault, of course...
  • MaxPB said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
    19-13-18 in Bejing

    13-16-13 so far with guaranteed medals still to come

    I think we will match Bejing
    A lot depends on how the rest of the track cycling shakes out in terms of golds. We've got maybe 2-3 more chances of gold on the track and then a few boxing matches to come in. Can't see what else we've got left in terms of gold medal shots.
    Should be a 50% chance of another sailing gold.

    Other possibilities are show-jumping, canoeing, pentathlon, skateboarding, Tom Daley and maybe women's gold.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,681
    It's funny how Jamaican women are dominating the sprints yet they might not get a single man to either the 100 or 200 metre final this olympics. Still absurdly strong at sprinting for a ~ 3 million population nation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958

    Leon said:

    "Iran’s health system could collapse amid a ‘catastrophic’ COVID surge, ​warns the country’s health minister https://aje.io/e4sfqu"

    https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1421896246638350336?s=20

    When the dust settles we are going to find out a whole bost of countries had far far worse death tolls than reported. India it is thought to be many times the official numbers. Brazil have been in permanent crisis throughout the pandemic.
    A rough guess would be three-five times the "official" stats on deaths worldwide?

    Which suggests 12-20 million have died, so far. This is quite some pandemic
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,682


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
    Yes and No still won with 55%.

    However No is now clearly under 60% and both sides are about 50/50 so neither side are willing to risk it
    Neither side are willing to risk it?
    But I'm told incessantly on here that only one side can consent to a referendum.
    By you, in fact.
    Interesting HYUFD is changing his tune. Must be party HQ sending new messages on the 5G.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    The Red Wall shit munchers didn't understand what was happening at the time. They definitely don't remember the arcane details of who did what from a year ago.
    I reckon the "shit munchers" are a bit more intuitive than you presume. Starmer WAS a high profile Remainer. People only have to remember that "vaguely" for it to hit home

    Otherwise, how else do you explain his relatively appalling polling, especially on "more or less truthful than Boris", where he comes out roughly equal?
    But how to explain his good ratings - personal and party - in early 2020. That was very soon after he'd tried to strangle Brexit.
    A brief Xmas honeymoon, then everyone remembered what a Remoaning dick he is
    I think we have a case of projecting personal feelings onto the public at large. That's what you and Nerys are doing. Isam does it too on this very same point. You guys think Starmer's Remoanerdom SHOULD make him toxic and unelectable so you attribute his current poor ratings to his Remoanerdom, ignoring that he had good ratings when his Remoanerdom was more recent and relevant. More likely his slump was caused by the major event that co-incides with it - the pandemic.
    Yes, possibly. I also just like using the word "Remoaner", because I know it annoys Remoaners.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,034
    MrEd said:

    kle4 said:

    Ha, I watched this movie in the cinema on Sunday and I just knew there was going to be a story about this nonsense as people worked up a fake outrage.

    Disney's newest film Jungle Cruise is facing criticism because of a lack of "genuine representation" when it comes to LGBTQ+ characters...

    Three year's ago Whitehall, who is a straight actor, was controversially cast as Disney's first out and officially gay character, named MacGregor in the film. Now, following the movie's release, the studio has been criticised again for a scene where MacGregor reveals his sexuality.

    In the scene, he tells Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's character Frank that he broke off relationships - described as "engagements" in the film - with three women because his "interests happily lay elsewhere".

    The character then thanks his sister for supporting him after he wasn't accepted by the rest of their family.

    However members of the LGBTQ+ community and others have criticised the film on social media because the character doesn't specifically say that he is 'gay'.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/58027620

    There is actually a follow up line where he is pretty clear about the issue being about who he loves. It may not mention the word gay but there is no ambiguity there.

    Frankly I'm more surprised the confected 'outrage' is not about him being the comic relief of the film and how that reflects poorly on gay people or some rubbish.

    I was about to post on that, what a crack-up.

    Surprisingly robust response by Disney I have to say. None of the usual "I'm sorry if we have caused offence..."
    They may have just gotten outrage exhausted by the whole thing, given the previous 'controversy' of Whitehall not being gay playing a gay character.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
    Yes and No still won with 55%.

    However No is now clearly under 60% and both sides are about 50/50 so neither side are willing to risk it
    Neither side are willing to risk it?
    But I'm told incessantly on here that only one side can consent to a referendum.
    By you, in fact.
    For a legal referendum yes only the UK government can consent to a referendum.

    However Sturgeon is not even willing to risk a wildcat referendum without UK government consent even if the UK government like the Spanish government in 2017 would ignore the result.

    Salmond unlike Sturgeon has said he would go full Catalonia if the UK government continues to refuse a legal indyref2 and even declare UDI if necessary
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,729
    The whole thing with SKS's ratings is that he started very well with a lot of goodwill.

    I'm sure the Tories microtarget with whatever SKS said about Brexit, but to say that is the reason for his ratings doesn't hold water.

    Basically he had struggled to attack the government effectively during COVID, and it is that lack of presence that has mainly ended his honeymoon. BAU politics provides an opportunity, but he and Labour will need to sharpen up to take it. It's remains to be seen if that is possible.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    Athletics is the biggest bust for Team GB an already weak team, 2 sprinters injuried, KJT has been injuried all season, and really only the lass in the 1500m as an outside chance.

    Could end up with 0-1 medals from the track.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    So you would have gone for Rebecca Wrong Daily?
    Definitely a woman, definitely someone not tainted by Brexit.
    Same reasons I voted for Nandy
    Nandy's a lightweight and has even less charisma than Starmer
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 391
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    Was Sir Keir that visible during the Brexit shenanigans though? I doubt many people even know who he is today, let alone what Brexit policy he engineered for Labour (which was in itself notoriously opaque). More likely Leavers just adore Boris and conclude that Sir Keir must be a wrong un as his job, of necessity, requires him to be anti-Boris. If true then Labour are screwed for as long as Boris is around, because no matter who leads them he or she will be resented and dismissed simply for not being Boris.
    To an extent.

    The new Redfield poll has Boris beating Burnham as preferred PM by 45% to 23%, which is actually slightly better than he does against Starmer who he beats 44% to 28%.

    Boris' closest rival comes from his own party in the form of Sunak but voters still prefer Boris to Sunak as PM via 37% to 30%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-2-august-2021/

    At the moment Boris is like Blair pre Iraq or Thatcher post Falklands, master of all he surveys
    I remain firmly of the opinion that Sunak's popularity will vanish like the morning dew as soon as he turns off the spending taps. It's easy to be a spending Chancellor but few get to do it long enough to walk into Number 10 (Brown just about did). I met him a few times when he was a Treasury minister and he seemed a pleasant lightweight. Credit to him he's run the Treasury tightly during COVID but what's his vision or heft outside his department?
  • Pulpstar said:

    It's funny how Jamaican women are dominating the sprints yet they might not get a single man to either the 100 or 200 metre final this olympics. Still absurdly strong at sprinting for a ~ 3 million population nation.

    What is amazing is how weak the actual West African countries are at sprinting compared to their disapora.

    A contrast to how the East African countries dominate the long distance events.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    The whole thing with SKS's ratings is that he started very well with a lot of goodwill.

    I'm sure the Tories microtarget with whatever SKS said about Brexit, but to say that is the reason for his ratings doesn't hold water.

    Basically he had struggled to attack the government effectively during COVID, and it is that lack of presence that has mainly ended his honeymoon. BAU politics provides an opportunity, but he and Labour will need to sharpen up to take it. It's remains to be seen if that is possible.

    Its not even being able to attack the government....he basically stands up every time and says terrible, useless, reckless, confusion...so what would you do different....erhhhhh...hmmmmm.....well.....the same, but different, but essentially the same, but definitely differently better. Yes thanks for that SKS.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,481
    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
    So you would have gone for Rebecca Wrong Daily?
    The problem they had was the SKS was the best of the bunch. the better candidates were not MPs (Burnham / Khan). The reason SKS and BJ won their leadership contests easily is there is very few MPs in either party who'd be considered as a potential PM with the charisma to take it to the opposition. this is why we ended up in 2017 with JC v TM.
    I saw little wrong with Nandy and I voted for her. You don't know who'll be good as leader until they're the leader, hence always a risk, and given it wasn't clear she would be BAD as leader, and I liked and rated her, that was my 1st choice. I put Starmer 2nd.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    The Red Wall shit munchers didn't understand what was happening at the time. They definitely don't remember the arcane details of who did what from a year ago.
    I reckon the "shit munchers" are a bit more intuitive than you presume. Starmer WAS a high profile Remainer. People only have to remember that "vaguely" for it to hit home

    Otherwise, how else do you explain his relatively appalling polling, especially on "more or less truthful than Boris", where he comes out roughly equal?
    But how to explain his good ratings - personal and party - in early 2020. That was very soon after he'd tried to strangle Brexit.
    A brief Xmas honeymoon, then everyone remembered what a Remoaning dick he is
    I think we have a case of projecting personal feelings onto the public at large. That's what you and Nerys are doing. Isam does it too on this very same point. You guys think Starmer's Remoanerdom SHOULD make him toxic and unelectable so you attribute his current poor ratings to his Remoanerdom, ignoring that he had good ratings when his Remoanerdom was more recent and relevant. More likely his slump was caused by the major event that co-incides with it - the pandemic.
    Yes, possibly. I also just like using the word "Remoaner", because I know it annoys Remoaners.
    You use all sorts of names to amuse us, though, which makes up for it.
  • Athletics is the biggest bust for Team GB an already weak team, 2 sprinters injuried, KJT has been injuried all season, and really only the lass in the 1500m as an outside chance.

    Could end up with 0-1 medals from the track.

    I wonder if the better athletics strategy would be to concentrate funding on the field events.

    For the running it depends too much on natural talent.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,564

    Pulpstar said:

    It's funny how Jamaican women are dominating the sprints yet they might not get a single man to either the 100 or 200 metre final this olympics. Still absurdly strong at sprinting for a ~ 3 million population nation.

    What is amazing is how weak the actual West African countries are at sprinting compared to their disapora.

    A contrast to how the East African countries dominate the long distance events.
    Nigeria seem to be trying to dope their way there.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,682
    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
    Yes and No still won with 55%.

    However No is now clearly under 60% and both sides are about 50/50 so neither side are willing to risk it
    Neither side are willing to risk it?
    But I'm told incessantly on here that only one side can consent to a referendum.
    By you, in fact.
    For a legal referendum yes only the UK government can consent to a referendum.

    However Sturgeon is not even willing to risk a wildcat referendum without UK government consent even if the UK government like the Spanish government in 2017 would ignore the result.

    Salmond unlike Sturgeon has said he would go full Catalonia if the UK government continues to refuse a legal indyref2 and even declare UDI if necessary
    Ah - I see why you are changing the tune. You can't any more ignore the SGs when counting pro-indy vs anti-indy stats in Scotland, any more than you could ignore the LD seats when discussing the majority of Mr Cameron's coalition government of late memory:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/03/sturgeon-on-brink-cooperation-deal-scottish-greens
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958

    Pulpstar said:

    It's funny how Jamaican women are dominating the sprints yet they might not get a single man to either the 100 or 200 metre final this olympics. Still absurdly strong at sprinting for a ~ 3 million population nation.

    What is amazing is how weak the actual West African countries are at sprinting compared to their disapora.

    A contrast to how the East African countries dominate the long distance events.
    There is a cruel Darwinian explanation for this

    The slaves that survived the Middle Passage - and the brutalities of slavery itself - were thus selected over generations for their fitness, speed, strength. The Africans who remained in Africa did not undergo this savage evolutionary pressure

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,564

    Athletics is the biggest bust for Team GB an already weak team, 2 sprinters injuried, KJT has been injuried all season, and really only the lass in the 1500m as an outside chance.

    Could end up with 0-1 medals from the track.

    Could nab a relay medal.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021

    Athletics is the biggest bust for Team GB an already weak team, 2 sprinters injuried, KJT has been injuried all season, and really only the lass in the 1500m as an outside chance.

    Could end up with 0-1 medals from the track.

    I wonder if the better athletics strategy would be to concentrate funding on the field events.

    For the running it depends too much on natural talent.
    The UK used to have decent javelin throwers, but i don't think have much of a history in any of the other events.

    Lawrence Okoye is a total beast, but he may well have missed his chance to be top discus thrower after becoming an American Football player during his prime years.

    This may also be part of the problem. If you are 6ft 6 and incredible strength and athleticism, sports like rugby now pays big bucks now. I reckon some rugby forwards could shift a shot put a fair distance, but why do it when you can make £200k a year playing rugby.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,481
    edited August 2021

    kinabalu said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    A seductive view if you're a Leaver but flatly contradicted by the facts on the ground. 18 months ago when Starmer's Brexit "duplicity" would have been fresher in memory than it is today his ratings were good and Labour were polling well.
    So why are Labour doing so badly, its not just in the polls, some Local by-election results recently have also been woeful. Its the invisible Lib Dems who are improving, not Labour
    The pandemic has helped the Cons. The vaccine has given them a boost and for most of the last year and a half Labour has been starved of oxygen. The public have not wanted to hear from the Opposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,326
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
    "No" was originally polling higher than that last time..

    We spoke about the Deerhunter the other way.

    IndyRef2 is like both sides feigning to play Russian Roulette with what's on the table in front of them, but there are three bullets in the gun.
    Yes and No still won with 55%.

    However No is now clearly under 60% and both sides are about 50/50 so neither side are willing to risk it
    Neither side are willing to risk it?
    But I'm told incessantly on here that only one side can consent to a referendum.
    By you, in fact.
    For a legal referendum yes only the UK government can consent to a referendum.

    However Sturgeon is not even willing to risk a wildcat referendum without UK government consent even if the UK government like the Spanish government in 2017 would ignore the result.

    Salmond unlike Sturgeon has said he would go full Catalonia if the UK government continues to refuse a legal indyref2 and even declare UDI if necessary
    Ah - I see why you are changing the tune. You can't any more ignore the SGs when counting pro-indy vs anti-indy stats in Scotland, any more than you could ignore the LD seats when discussing the majority of Mr Cameron's coalition government of late memory:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/03/sturgeon-on-brink-cooperation-deal-scottish-greens
    The SGs are irrelevant, Sturgeon's little helpers who care more about reforming the Gender Recognition Act than pushing for an imminent indyref2.

    Only if Alba had MSPs would Sturgeon have been under any pressure to push for a wildcat referendum
    https://planetradio.co.uk/clyde/local/news/too-soon-indyref2-scottish-greens/
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 391

    Pro_Rata said:

    The whole thing with SKS's ratings is that he started very well with a lot of goodwill.

    I'm sure the Tories microtarget with whatever SKS said about Brexit, but to say that is the reason for his ratings doesn't hold water.

    Basically he had struggled to attack the government effectively during COVID, and it is that lack of presence that has mainly ended his honeymoon. BAU politics provides an opportunity, but he and Labour will need to sharpen up to take it. It's remains to be seen if that is possible.

    Its not even being able to attack the government....he basically stands up every time and says terrible, useless, reckless, confusion...so what would you do different....erhhhhh...hmmmmm.....well.....the same, but different, but essentially the same, but definitely differently better. Yes thanks for that SKS.
    In fairness when anything COVID related comes before Parliament it's usually because the government is finally doing what everyone has been pressing them to do earlier. You can't vote against something you agree with because you wish the government had done it sooner.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,130

    Athletics is the biggest bust for Team GB an already weak team, 2 sprinters injuried, KJT has been injuried all season, and really only the lass in the 1500m as an outside chance.

    Could end up with 0-1 medals from the track.

    So close to this prediction aging badly really quickly!
  • Athletics is the biggest bust for Team GB an already weak team, 2 sprinters injuried, KJT has been injuried all season, and really only the lass in the 1500m as an outside chance.

    Could end up with 0-1 medals from the track.

    1 down.
This discussion has been closed.