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The polling tide turning for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

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  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    eek said:
    Big Tech are now the oil barons of the 21st Century. We have to ask if we want the world ruled by 6 or 7 corporations. They can already buy policy they want in the US. Will the UK government have the cullions to stand up to them?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,705

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Quiz for today, name as many of them as possible. Thought that was Nigel Kennedy on the left but it is of course the one and only Johnnie Fingers, Aled Jones on the right, Midge Ure looks like he's got something very naughty under his Royal Stewart and I assume George Michael is the ruddy faced scaffolder behind Geldof.


    The Bowie cool is quite strong there.
    The morass of uncool in which he's embedded may accentuate it of course..
    Only the Thin White Duke could get away with that garb for a wedding.
    Socks disappointingly wrinkled mind. I can see a case for those American suspender things to hold up his Pantherellas just for the photo.
    I like the way he's gone into the what's the naffest, least cool thing you could wear for a wedding thing, worn it, and ended up looking coolness personified.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,194
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

    My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

    The beam is the gymnastics skill I find the most mindblowing. The others I can just about imagine doing really really badly after years and years of practice, but that one, no. Not possible.
    You're at a distinct advantage in it if you're under 5 foot, the gymnasts were all absolubtely tiny. Male gymnasts do all tend to be slightly on the short side but it doesn't tend toward the completely extreme bodies of the female gymnasts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,766
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

    My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

    The beam is the gymnastics skill I find the most mindblowing. The others I can just about imagine doing really really badly after years and years of practice, but that one, no. Not possible.
    Yes, agreed

    It's the balance, and fearlessness. And the jumping. And the splits. OK everything

    Sometimes the floor is quite inexplicable as well. How can a human leap that high?!
    Also maybe because it's a female specialty, suited to that body, and so I as a male am awestruck.

    Eg, my wife says it's the rings that stun her the most, for opposite and same reason.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    There's a Brit boxing for gold right now. BBC.

    But I'm not sure he's quite got the measure of this wily Cuban
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,184
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    Still 5 behind and fewer Silvers. GB still got a fair few medal hopes and the Boxing going on now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,403
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Quiz for today, name as many of them as possible. Thought that was Nigel Kennedy on the left but it is of course the one and only Johnnie Fingers, Aled Jones on the right, Midge Ure looks like he's got something very naughty under his Royal Stewart and I assume George Michael is the ruddy faced scaffolder behind Geldof.


    The Bowie cool is quite strong there.
    The morass of uncool in which he's embedded may accentuate it of course..
    Only the Thin White Duke could get away with that garb for a wedding.
    Socks disappointingly wrinkled mind. I can see a case for those American suspender things to hold up his Pantherellas just for the photo.
    I like the way he's gone into the what's the naffest, least cool thing you could wear for a wedding thing, worn it, and ended up looking coolness personified.
    The 80s were terrible sartorially, in the land of the blind the mismatched eyed Thin White Duke was king.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117
    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,553
    Mr. Leon, Alexander was 17 when he destroyed the Theban Sacred Band, the greatest soldiers in Greece.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,112
    Aslan said:

    eek said:
    Big Tech are now the oil barons of the 21st Century. We have to ask if we want the world ruled by 6 or 7 corporations. They can already buy policy they want in the US. Will the UK government have the cullions to stand up to them?
    Sadly not.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
  • Here's some good news:

    "Greggs to create 500 jobs as it plans 100 more stores"

    Flaked parmesan over a steak bake anyone?

    Low productivity jobs for low productivity customers.

    (Ducks).
    Greggs and similar are the backbone of British working lunches. That's what caught George Osborne out in his omnishambles budget. Even ordinary Conservative voters do not lunch at Claridges (or was that JRM?).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,361
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

    My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

    The beam is the gymnastics skill I find the most mindblowing. The others I can just about imagine doing really really badly after years and years of practice, but that one, no. Not possible.
    Yes, agreed

    It's the balance, and fearlessness. And the jumping. And the splits. OK everything

    Sometimes the floor is quite inexplicable as well. How can a human leap that high?!
    The floor is sprung. Quite singly and enjoyably so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792
    The Brit has lost this
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,792
    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    In which case if they had GB definitely would be 3rd
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    Here's a question. Why don't Australia dominate sailing like they do swimming?
    They are very wealthy, and they all live on the coast. You might think it would be ideal for the non athletically built in a sports mad nation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792
    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
  • pingping Posts: 2,204
    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    Aslan said:

    eek said:
    Big Tech are now the oil barons of the 21st Century. We have to ask if we want the world ruled by 6 or 7 corporations. They can already buy policy they want in the US. Will the UK government have the cullions to stand up to them?
    Which recent global leader made a big point of being anti Big Tech I wonder? However he is the devil incarnate of course so we cannot listen to anything he says even if he may have had a point on constraining the Big Tech companies
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tech-idUSKBN29H2C4

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-j-trump-why-im-suing-big-tech-11625761897
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,184
    Leon said:

    The Brit has lost this

    Yup. Still a Silver though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792
    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    The Brit has lost this

    Yup. Still a Silver though.
    Needs a KO. Not gonna happen
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
    40% of British voters say teams should be ranked at the Olympics by total medals won, only 23% by golds won alone

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1422475147362119717?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,766
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus that Chinese gymnast girl is 16. How can you do that stuff so young?

    My daughters are about the same age and can barely get out of bed to look at their phones

    The beam is the gymnastics skill I find the most mindblowing. The others I can just about imagine doing really really badly after years and years of practice, but that one, no. Not possible.
    You're at a distinct advantage in it if you're under 5 foot, the gymnasts were all absolubtely tiny. Male gymnasts do all tend to be slightly on the short side but it doesn't tend toward the completely extreme bodies of the female gymnasts.
    Yes. But I don't think it's just height. The female body is more twisty and has a greater innate balance.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    I can't see what issue would cause it. the Tories have united the Right of politics quite effectively and there are no wedge issues at the moment which would split them. unlike the left where the future relationship with the EU is now the wedge issue and the big difference between Labour and the Dib Lems.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,792
    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    The Government are flogging a dead-horse here. If they try and insist on this then there will simply be a retention crisis in the civil service.

    The world has changed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
    40% of British voters say teams should be ranked at the Olympics by total medals won, only 23% by golds won alone

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1422475147362119717?s=20
    hahahaha

    Bless you HYUFD. Only you would have access to polling of the Great British Public on this point
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    Burnham becomes Labour leader and Farage returns would be likeliest
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Latest data from YouGov & Imperial College London, updated to July 31:

    In Australia, France, Germany, more than 20% of respondents declare that they are still unwilling to be vaccinated. This could make it very difficult for these countries to reach high levels of coverage.


    https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1422482507270922241?s=20
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,007
    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792
    Thank God they've finally given up the stupid tradition of giving Olympic announcements in French as well

    It's a dead language. Move on
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    edited August 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a question. Why don't Australia dominate sailing like they do swimming?
    They are very wealthy, and they all live on the coast. You might think it would be ideal for the non athletically built in a sports mad nation.

    Australians are reasonably wealthy on average but not posh.

    Swimming is a sport everyone can do, sailing is a sport dominated by toffs and old money, much like showjumping
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,184
    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    The Brit has lost this

    Yup. Still a Silver though.
    Needs a KO. Not gonna happen
    Nope
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,792
    spudgfsh said:

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    I can't see what issue would cause it. the Tories have united the Right of politics quite effectively and there are no wedge issues at the moment which would split them. unlike the left where the future relationship with the EU is now the wedge issue and the big difference between Labour and the Dib Lems.
    Oh, there's lots of issues. The EU battle is over, and we need to turn our attention to the issues of the future.

    Climate change, immigration, and cultural conflicts are all mainstream areas of risk for the Conservatives - and there's also a space opening up for a more economically dry offering as well.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,755
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
    40% of British voters say teams should be ranked at the Olympics by total medals won, only 23% by golds won alone

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1422475147362119717?s=20
    British voters can rank Olympics countries however they want. Medals, gold medals, adjusted for population or GDP or (on PB) membership of the EU. It is just froth.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,184
    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    The Brit has lost this

    Yup. Still a Silver though.
    Needs a KO. Not gonna happen
    Think we will get a medal in the 800m though. Hodgkinson might be a good bet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,792
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,194
    A real shame the gymnastics jus then wasn't in front of a full house, men's gymnastics is kind of the Japanese home sport and the high bar is the most spectacular of the lot. And that was something special by Hashimoto.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Looking likely. Could have been third if Japan hadn't gotten an astonishing gold medal ratio.

    Speaking of medal count bets, the Ladbrokes line for UK was 44.5 medals overall. I had a punt on Over, but not for nearly as much as the US bet.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,007
    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,497

    Never trust a man over 35 with “romantic long hair”.

    I'm reminded of this:
    image
    Clearly not, if he goes round in public looking like that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,448
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Indeed. My mechanical engineering prof colleague is livid about the about face on diesel cars, after he bought a new Mercedes a few years ago, that was top speck for emissions etc, but now finds he can't drive into Bath in it without paying nine quid a go...
    There is a speadsheet to be created here which is money saved on non-ULEZ compliant car vs extra charges incurred by paying ULEZ fees. As an existing owner the marginal cost of the charge should be seen against taking public transport (after all the aim of the charge in the first place).
    I live inside the expanded ULEZ so no spreadsheet was required. I agree with the extension, incidentally, even if I did have to fork out for a new (second hand) motor as a result.
    I don't like this topic. Old Merc looks doomed. Still not decided how to play things. Not thinking about it. Head in sand.
    Pre -1981 = ULEZ exempt.

    https://racecarsdirect.com/Advert/Details/117942/porsche-944-rothmans-race-car

    I've had my eye on this but you can have it if you want. It's not as cool as my ITB 924 so I'm ok.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792
    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,184

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
    I hate tasting menus. Agree on that. Too much fuss

    But you really do recommend it apart from that? Why?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,005
    Just thinking about Karsten Warholm's performance today. The fact that the guy who came second wasn't too far behind perhaps detracts from just how amazing their performances were today. When Bolt was winning it looked like he was in a different event and it was obvious to see.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,194
    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    There's a Brit boxing for gold right now. BBC.

    But I'm not sure he's quite got the measure of this wily Cuban
    The boxing gyms of Havana still clearly have "it".
  • pingping Posts: 2,204
    spudgfsh said:

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    I can't see what issue would cause it. the Tories have united the Right of politics quite effectively and there are no wedge issues at the moment which would split them. unlike the left where the future relationship with the EU is now the wedge issue and the big difference between Labour and the Dib Lems.
    The green agenda has the most potential as a right vs centre-right wedge issue, I recon.

    The righting podcasts/blogs that I keep an eye on are currently getting exercised over Trans rights, but I don’t think that is really potent enough to impact VI

    Islamophobia - I think this only becomes a wedge issue if there are many more serious terror attacks. Boris has this angle covered, with his letterbox comments. He can also wheel out the Saj when necessary, for defence.

    The only other potential wedge issue coming down the line would be tax. But I think a recession that necessitated serious tax rises would probably unite the right, rather than split it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,766
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Indeed. My mechanical engineering prof colleague is livid about the about face on diesel cars, after he bought a new Mercedes a few years ago, that was top speck for emissions etc, but now finds he can't drive into Bath in it without paying nine quid a go...
    There is a speadsheet to be created here which is money saved on non-ULEZ compliant car vs extra charges incurred by paying ULEZ fees. As an existing owner the marginal cost of the charge should be seen against taking public transport (after all the aim of the charge in the first place).
    I live inside the expanded ULEZ so no spreadsheet was required. I agree with the extension, incidentally, even if I did have to fork out for a new (second hand) motor as a result.
    I don't like this topic. Old Merc looks doomed. Still not decided how to play things. Not thinking about it. Head in sand.
    Pre -1981 = ULEZ exempt.

    https://racecarsdirect.com/Advert/Details/117942/porsche-944-rothmans-race-car

    I've had my eye on this but you can have it if you want. It's not as cool as my ITB 924 so I'm ok.
    Looks great but I'd feel silly in it. Either going to keep the car and just pay the £12.50 each time or stash it somewhere safe and get a cheap petrol runaround. Say £3k, something Japanese and stolid.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117
    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,937
    edited August 2021
    The polls will edge back to the Tories, before closing slowly again. I am still not convinced of Johnson's unassailabllity come 2024.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,766
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
    40% of British voters say teams should be ranked at the Olympics by total medals won, only 23% by golds won alone

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1422475147362119717?s=20
    The best way would be a Ted Rogers weighting but I suppose that would be a bit much for an innumerate general public who rejected AV as being too complicated.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117
    ping said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    I can't see what issue would cause it. the Tories have united the Right of politics quite effectively and there are no wedge issues at the moment which would split them. unlike the left where the future relationship with the EU is now the wedge issue and the big difference between Labour and the Dib Lems.
    The green agenda has the most potential as a right vs centre-right wedge issue, I recon.

    The righting podcasts/blogs that I keep an eye on are currently getting exercised over Trans rights, but I don’t think that is really potent enough to impact VI

    Islamophobia - I think this only becomes a wedge issue if there are many more serious terror attacks. Boris has this angle covered, with his letterbox comments. He can also wheel out the Saj when necessary, for defence.

    The only other potential wedge issue coming down the line would be tax. But I think a recession that necessitated serious tax rises would probably unite the right, rather than split it.
    I wait to be proven wrong but I can't see the Green agenda being the wedge issue.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,007
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
    I hate tasting menus. Agree on that. Too much fuss

    But you really do recommend it apart from that? Why?
    The excellent Andy Hayler (who is IMO the most reliable reviewer of London restaurants) describes it very well here:

    https://www.andyhayler.com/restaurant/sola

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,497
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
    40% of British voters say teams should be ranked at the Olympics by total medals won, only 23% by golds won alone

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1422475147362119717?s=20
    The best way would be a Ted Rogers weighting but I suppose that would be a bit much for an innumerate general public who rejected AV as being too complicated.
    And in any event, it ought to be 4/2/1.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    edited August 2021
    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum (she needs Yes to be at least 60%+ in the polls for that) and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,833
    edited August 2021
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    LOL at the National.

    Cycling collision in Olympic Heat when Danish rider rides into GB Team Member.

    National headline:

    "BBC apologise as cyclist Frederik Madsen shouts 'f*** them' during morning coverage"
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19486911.bbc-apologise-cyclist-frederik-madsen-shouts-f-them-morning-coverage/

    Niche market, chaps?

    Not specific to the National. See its Unionist stablemate:

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19487058.tokyo-bbc-apologise-cyclist-frederik-madsen-shouts-f-them-team-gb-crash/
    LOL at the Herald :smile:

    Niche market, chaps?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,214
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    You’ve this post set up as a macro haven’t you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,766
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
    40% of British voters say teams should be ranked at the Olympics by total medals won, only 23% by golds won alone

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1422475147362119717?s=20
    The best way would be a Ted Rogers weighting but I suppose that would be a bit much for an innumerate general public who rejected AV as being too complicated.
    And in any event, it ought to be 4/2/1.
    Actually, yes. Agreed. Gold worth twice a Silver (in turn worth twice a Bronze) and slightly more than Silver and Bronze combined.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
    I hate tasting menus. Agree on that. Too much fuss

    But you really do recommend it apart from that? Why?
    The excellent Andy Hayler (who is IMO the most reliable reviewer of London restaurants) describes it very well here:

    https://www.andyhayler.com/restaurant/sola

    Ta. Will read

    Do you ever read Tim Hayward on the FT? He's my favourite restaurant critic. Superb writing, brilliantly observed

    (he also really likes Sola)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,403
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    LOL at the National.

    Cycling collision in Olympic Heat when Danish rider rides into GB Team Member.

    National headline:

    "BBC apologise as cyclist Frederik Madsen shouts 'f*** them' during morning coverage"
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19486911.bbc-apologise-cyclist-frederik-madsen-shouts-f-them-morning-coverage/

    Niche market, chaps?

    Not specific to the National. See its Unionist stablemate:

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19487058.tokyo-bbc-apologise-cyclist-frederik-madsen-shouts-f-them-team-gb-crash/
    LOL at the Herald :smile:

    Niche market, chaps?
    You along with several others here seem irretrievably lodged in that niche.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,350
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    You’ve this post set up as a macro haven’t you?
    No. On his John Bull printing set.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    the importance of Alba is overstated in the same way as UKIP was. There won't be enough defections to them to take power or to attract significant numbers of additional SNP supporters. all they'll do is make it harder for the SNP to win.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,445
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    You’ve this post set up as a macro haven’t you?
    He may be repetitive, but he isn't obviously wrong.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,766
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
    I hate tasting menus. Agree on that. Too much fuss

    But you really do recommend it apart from that? Why?
    The excellent Andy Hayler (who is IMO the most reliable reviewer of London restaurants) describes it very well here:

    https://www.andyhayler.com/restaurant/sola

    Ta. Will read

    Do you ever read Tim Hayward on the FT? He's my favourite restaurant critic. Superb writing, brilliantly observed

    (he also really likes Sola)
    I'd have thought you'd be a fan of Giles Coren. Glad to have that wrong.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,377
    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    I'm they're going to include ROC then you need to allow a 20% discount for future backdated drugs bans, so we're comfortably in front of them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,833
    edited August 2021

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Yep. Strange criticism and a strange explanation.

    Me - I'm waiting for a credible electric that can tow 2 tons, and take a decent load.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    edited August 2021
    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    the importance of Alba is overstated in the same way as UKIP was. There won't be enough defections to them to take power or to attract significant numbers of additional SNP supporters. all they'll do is make it harder for the SNP to win.
    At Westminster under FPTP maybe, not at Holyrood under PR.

    Had Alba won some MSPs in May on the list and Sturgeon needed Alba support rather than Green support for her majority she would be under a lot more pressure to push indyref2 or hold a wildcat referendum.

    Nationalists who desperately want independence and voted SNP or Green not Alba on the list set back their own cause
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,377
    tlg86 said:

    Just thinking about Karsten Warholm's performance today. The fact that the guy who came second wasn't too far behind perhaps detracts from just how amazing their performances were today. When Bolt was winning it looked like he was in a different event and it was obvious to see.

    Prior to this year it was a 29 year old world record (so due an update as soon as someone good turned up), and this year they're all running in the mechanical doping sprung shoes the authorities are too cowardly to ban.

    The fact 2 of them were so close makes it less impressive and shows the wider factors are contributing as much as individual brilliance
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,705

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
    I hate tasting menus. Agree on that. Too much fuss

    But you really do recommend it apart from that? Why?
    The excellent Andy Hayler (who is IMO the most reliable reviewer of London restaurants) describes it very well here:

    https://www.andyhayler.com/restaurant/sola

    Slightly loses its lustre, doesn't it in the @NickPalmer view of the future:

    The Parmesan was top of the range 24-month aged Vacca Rossa, made from the No.7 Robotics Lab (Synthetics Division) of the Pfizer plant in northern Italy, with 14 litres of milk-suggestive amalgam compound H/35/EU/1N needed for each kilogram of cheese-suggestive R/2/800/EU/N12 Mass-inconsistent product (17/20).
  • kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
    I hate tasting menus. Agree on that. Too much fuss

    But you really do recommend it apart from that? Why?
    The excellent Andy Hayler (who is IMO the most reliable reviewer of London restaurants) describes it very well here:

    https://www.andyhayler.com/restaurant/sola

    Ta. Will read

    Do you ever read Tim Hayward on the FT? He's my favourite restaurant critic. Superb writing, brilliantly observed

    (he also really likes Sola)
    I'd have thought you'd be a fan of Giles Coren. Glad to have that wrong.
    I used to buy the Sunday Business (another A Neil vehicle?) solely for the restaurant critic. Then they cut his budget and I stopped buying the paper when he wrote about going for a curry with his mates. No idea of his name but he probably had one.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    the importance of Alba is overstated in the same way as UKIP was. There won't be enough defections to them to take power or to attract significant numbers of additional SNP supporters. all they'll do is make it harder for the SNP to win.
    At Westminster under FPTP maybe, not at Holyrood under PR.

    Had Alba won some MSPs in May on the list and Sturgeon needed Alba support rather than Green support for her majority she would be under a lot more pressure to push indyref2 or hold a wildcat referendum.

    Nationalists who desperately want independence and voted SNP or Green not Alba on the list set back their own cause
    The next Scottish national vote will be the next GE, the next one under PR will be in 2026. That's hard to sustain over a 5 year period. The most Alba can expect is to eat into the SNP votes in the FPTP seats and cost the SNP some of the seats. It may push the SNP further on the Independence issue but not enough to change from their current course
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,448
    MattW said:

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Yep. Strange criticism and a strange explanation.

    Me - I'm waiting for a credible electric that can tow 2 tons, and take a decent load.
    Model X has 2,300kg braked towing capacity.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,123
    MattW said:

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Yep. Strange criticism and a strange explanation.

    Me - I'm waiting for a credible electric that can tow 2 tons, and take a decent load.
    Sympathise with OnlyLivingBoy on this; I recently very seriously thought about an electric car, but looked up available charging point in areas to which I drive on holiday and they were much less available than in N Essex.
    So I stuck with petrol.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,553
    On page 310 (Penguin) of Polybius. He's just described the evolution and degradation of constitutional cycles as each becomes corrupted and gets replaced by a new system.

    Fascinating stuff.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,350

    On page 310 (Penguin) of Polybius. He's just described the evolution and degradation of constitutional cycles as each becomes corrupted and gets replaced by a new system.

    Fascinating stuff.

    Clever chaps, the old Greeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845
    edited August 2021
    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    the importance of Alba is overstated in the same way as UKIP was. There won't be enough defections to them to take power or to attract significant numbers of additional SNP supporters. all they'll do is make it harder for the SNP to win.
    At Westminster under FPTP maybe, not at Holyrood under PR.

    Had Alba won some MSPs in May on the list and Sturgeon needed Alba support rather than Green support for her majority she would be under a lot more pressure to push indyref2 or hold a wildcat referendum.

    Nationalists who desperately want independence and voted SNP or Green not Alba on the list set back their own cause
    The next Scottish national vote will be the next GE, the next one under PR will be in 2026. That's hard to sustain over a 5 year period. The most Alba can expect is to eat into the SNP votes in the FPTP seats and cost the SNP some of the seats. It may push the SNP further on the Independence issue but not enough to change from their current course
    If Sturgeon has not been granted a legal indyref2 by the Tories by 2024 and not held a wildcat referendum either, which is likely, I would expect Salmond to stand Alba candidates at the next general election in SNP held seats across Scotland.

    That could then split the Nationalist vote at last and give SLab and Sarwar their chance of revival
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,766

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    Perfectly reasonable comments by Sunak on the disadvantages of WFH

    Almost universally negative comments on bbc hys;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58068998

    If we've learnt anything from the last five years, it's the huge tendency of people to believe that what they would like to be true is true.
    You're back! Hello

    I have a query for you. Recently you raved about a new restaurant in Soho, was it Sola Soho?

    Because I have a possible table there tomorrow night. Is that the one you recommended?
    Yep, that's the one. I'd recommend the 'prix fixe' rather than the over-long tasting menu, but that's my personal choice.
    I hate tasting menus. Agree on that. Too much fuss

    But you really do recommend it apart from that? Why?
    The excellent Andy Hayler (who is IMO the most reliable reviewer of London restaurants) describes it very well here:

    https://www.andyhayler.com/restaurant/sola

    Ta. Will read

    Do you ever read Tim Hayward on the FT? He's my favourite restaurant critic. Superb writing, brilliantly observed

    (he also really likes Sola)
    I'd have thought you'd be a fan of Giles Coren. Glad to have that wrong.
    I used to buy the Sunday Business (another A Neil vehicle?) solely for the restaurant critic. Then they cut his budget and I stopped buying the paper when he wrote about going for a curry with his mates. No idea of his name but he probably had one.
    That's taking the piss. I like restaurant columns as a rule even though I rarely go to restaurants.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,553
    Mr. Carnyx, they really were.

    If Rome had retained its old constitution, it's intriguing to consider how things might have gone. Or even if they'd retained the adoptive principle of the Golden Age.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117

    MattW said:

    I'm old enough to remember when governments were obsessed with optics.




    I have some sympathy on this, having recently thought long and hard about buying an electric car but ultimately opting for a Ulez-compliant diesel. If she was after a seven seater car like I was then her only option would have been the Tesla Model X (around £50k second hand). I hope my next car will be electric though, I have high hopes for the Model Y. On street charging needs to be improved significantly too.
    If I was a climate spokesperson I might have just sucked it up and gone electric (although there are plenty of green issues with electric cars too).
    Yep. Strange criticism and a strange explanation.

    Me - I'm waiting for a credible electric that can tow 2 tons, and take a decent load.
    Sympathise with OnlyLivingBoy on this; I recently very seriously thought about an electric car, but looked up available charging point in areas to which I drive on holiday and they were much less available than in N Essex.
    So I stuck with petrol.
    I'm waiting for both more charging points and better range (reliably 350 miles). until then I'm sticking to the self charging hybrids.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,762
    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,448
    I did a swirl flap and EGR delete on my diesel tow rig then sold it to some mug on FB. I've got a petrol sDrive 35i F15 X5 now. 2WD X5s are the coolest.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,184
    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    Quite. I think the track cycling will come back given the infrastructure available and the commitment of the team. Rowing seems in a dark place but, in some ways, having the clash brought open into the open is probably good longer-term. Sprints have been disappointing but a lot of that has been unfortunates (injuries / false start in the 100m though I don't think Hughes would have got a medal).
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    the SNP is in too deep with the call for a Referendum to back out without something to kick it into the long grass. I can't see what would give them the excuse to put it off for longer than a few months. They also need independence on the agenda to keep people voting for them. when SLab finally get their act together and provide a decent Left opposition the SNP will be in trouble.
    The UK government will refuse indyref2 as long as the Tories remain in power.

    Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat referendum and ruled out UDI, so nothing will change and defections from the SNP to Alba will gather pace
    the importance of Alba is overstated in the same way as UKIP was. There won't be enough defections to them to take power or to attract significant numbers of additional SNP supporters. all they'll do is make it harder for the SNP to win.
    At Westminster under FPTP maybe, not at Holyrood under PR.

    Had Alba won some MSPs in May on the list and Sturgeon needed Alba support rather than Green support for her majority she would be under a lot more pressure to push indyref2 or hold a wildcat referendum.

    Nationalists who desperately want independence and voted SNP or Green not Alba on the list set back their own cause
    The next Scottish national vote will be the next GE, the next one under PR will be in 2026. That's hard to sustain over a 5 year period. The most Alba can expect is to eat into the SNP votes in the FPTP seats and cost the SNP some of the seats. It may push the SNP further on the Independence issue but not enough to change from their current course
    If Sturgeon has not been granted a legal indyref2 by the Tories by 2024 and not held a wildcat referendum either, which is likely, I would expect Salmond to stand Alba candidates at the next general election in SNP held seats across Scotland.

    That could then split the Nationalist vote at last and give SLab and Sarwar their chance of revival
    As with UKIP there'll be some significant votes in specific seats but not enough to win any. given the strength of the SNP in most seats it'll probably only have an impact in a handful
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,096
    spudgfsh said:

    ping said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    I can't see what issue would cause it. the Tories have united the Right of politics quite effectively and there are no wedge issues at the moment which would split them. unlike the left where the future relationship with the EU is now the wedge issue and the big difference between Labour and the Dib Lems.
    The green agenda has the most potential as a right vs centre-right wedge issue, I recon.

    The righting podcasts/blogs that I keep an eye on are currently getting exercised over Trans rights, but I don’t think that is really potent enough to impact VI

    Islamophobia - I think this only becomes a wedge issue if there are many more serious terror attacks. Boris has this angle covered, with his letterbox comments. He can also wheel out the Saj when necessary, for defence.

    The only other potential wedge issue coming down the line would be tax. But I think a recession that necessitated serious tax rises would probably unite the right, rather than split it.
    I wait to be proven wrong but I can't see the Green agenda being the wedge issue.
    Green issues and animal welfare certainly divide some Tories - you've got people like Lord Mancroft saying that an advisory committee on animal sentience amounts to "lunatics taking over the asylum", vs people like Goldsmith who are 100% behind the green/welfare agenda. On the whole, the welfare side have all the momentum and I know Green Party and Labour people who are impressed and think Labour has been successfully outflanked by the Tory green agenda. But I don't think the old hunting'n'shooting wing has the firepower any longer to organise a threat from the right.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,366
    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    I feel we have gone backwards. We will be very lucky to match the performance at Beijing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    Starmer will never win a Labour majority no, Burnham is the only potential Labour leader I can see doing that and the only one capable of winning back large numbers of Leave voters in the Redwall.

    Starmer's only chance to become PM therefore is to pick up a few of the most marginal Tory seats and hope the LDs take enough Tory Remain seats to force a hung parliament
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,792
    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,845

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    Not happening unless No gets to 60% in the polls
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,833
    edited August 2021
    FPT:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    What an extraordinary coincidence that the best person to be on the anti-sleaze watchdog just happened to be an old chum of Johnsons from his Bullingdon Club days.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-sleaze-committee-standards-public-life-b1895212.html

    That is wrong IMO.

    However, I remember some Corbyn fans on here defending McDonnell employing Corbyn's son in a taxpayer-funded role. By an astonishing coincidence, the son of his best bud was the best candidate for the job.

    (Hint, he wasn't.)

    If we want to stop people hiring friends, family and chums to roles, especially to taxpayer-funded roles, then it needs to apply equally to all.
    I don't think I have ever defended cronyism in the Labour Party either.

    The nepotism and Chumocracy does show how illusory "taking back control" was.
    Jobs for the sons and daughters of friends is as old as jobs themselves. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't; sometimes it's not the best way of hiring someone but sometimes it can work. Rather depends on how how up the chain the job is.
    That's the Indy. And there seems to be not a shred of actual evidence of malpractice.

    Has anyone provided any evidence that Johnson had a corrupt role in the process, or how the process worked such that Johnson could manipulate it? Or that the member appointed is unfit to be on the Committee or is corrupt?

    Or is this just Hoof-in-Mouth Rayner howling at the moon because it is Tuesday and she still does not have anything to say?

    "You were in a student club with him 35 years ago" is some way beyond farfetched.

    The only possible chink I can see is if the PM is supplied with say 50 names, from which he then gets to choose who he wants, and that would still require a lot more evidence that we have.

    It's quite a dangerous argument to make because it shrinks the pool of acceptable candidates - 'No, you went to the same school when you were six!" - and undermines the expectation of personal integrity.
    At this level it looks bad, though. However, I agree that we've not seen evidence that, for example, Johnson looked at the shortlist and said 'He's the one. Know him. Good chap' or similar. Nor have we seen any suggestion, AFAIK, that a selection committee produced three names in order of preference, and the Good Chap was third.
    I think what we may get here at some time is similar to what happened to selection of Bishops, where the process was that the PM got 2 names and a theoretical convention that they could choose either - which has only been used once in 100-200 appointments.

    That has now been replaced with the second name being a "reserve" if eg the first one dies.

    Quite concerning, though, is the dire quality of opposition a reliance on painting this stuff in poster paints indicates.
    Despite your archaeology you haven’t really found a good reason why Boris should be picking an old school friend to head the Boris-monitoring committee, have you?
    I don't need one.

    I was pointing out that this particular outrage bus is fuelled by BS and hot air.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117
    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    China is now 10 golds ahead of the USA, and equal on total medals

    I think my prediction will come true: China is going to beat America for the first time (apart from Beijing)

    Given China has 4 times the population of the USA the surprise is more the US ever beat China in the first place.

    All things being equal population wise China should always top the Olympics medal table, India should be 2nd and the US 3rd so the US is still punching above its weight.

    It is India still doing very poorly in the non cricket sporting arena even as it grows economically
    The Germans are advancing, ominously. Up to 7th with 8 golds

    But TeamGB are just one gold from overtaking Oz

    Quite exciting

    We've got a load of potential golds in the boxing still to come, and may well win at least one on the track even if we aren't dominant like at London/Rio. On overall medals we will definitely come Top 5, and we'd be pretty unlucky not to do so on Gold/Silver/Bronze too.
    I've have thought we'd come fourth, just behind Japan.
    Barring a few surprises, that is probably right although I would have thought we have a better home stretch.

    Team GB's target was 45-70. Given there are at least two more definite boxing medals, we are already at the bottom end of the range.
    Yes, the truth is we are actually having a really good games overall - with slightly disappointing gold performance and significant underperformance by a couple of big sports being balanced out by really impressive performances by a lot of less favoured sports.
    Quite. I think the track cycling will come back given the infrastructure available and the commitment of the team. Rowing seems in a dark place but, in some ways, having the clash brought open into the open is probably good longer-term. Sprints have been disappointing but a lot of that has been unfortunates (injuries / false start in the 100m though I don't think Hughes would have got a medal).
    Rowing is in a transition phase but they achieved 6 fourth places and 2 medals out of the 10 boats. We achieved 7 medals (2 gold) in athletics at the Rio games but I can't see where any of the medals are coming from this time around
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,804
    edited August 2021
    On Topic Its mid term

    For Labour "Any other leader would be 20% ahead"
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,117

    spudgfsh said:

    ping said:

    spudgfsh said:

    The most likely way the Tories are knocked out of office is that a new threat to their right-flank emerges, knocking them back to 30-31%, at the same time as Labour pip up to 37-38% and pull ahead on most seats.

    I'd say this is very likely at some point in the next 7-8 years, I just don't know when.

    I can't see what issue would cause it. the Tories have united the Right of politics quite effectively and there are no wedge issues at the moment which would split them. unlike the left where the future relationship with the EU is now the wedge issue and the big difference between Labour and the Dib Lems.
    The green agenda has the most potential as a right vs centre-right wedge issue, I recon.

    The righting podcasts/blogs that I keep an eye on are currently getting exercised over Trans rights, but I don’t think that is really potent enough to impact VI

    Islamophobia - I think this only becomes a wedge issue if there are many more serious terror attacks. Boris has this angle covered, with his letterbox comments. He can also wheel out the Saj when necessary, for defence.

    The only other potential wedge issue coming down the line would be tax. But I think a recession that necessitated serious tax rises would probably unite the right, rather than split it.
    I wait to be proven wrong but I can't see the Green agenda being the wedge issue.
    Green issues and animal welfare certainly divide some Tories - you've got people like Lord Mancroft saying that an advisory committee on animal sentience amounts to "lunatics taking over the asylum", vs people like Goldsmith who are 100% behind the green/welfare agenda. On the whole, the welfare side have all the momentum and I know Green Party and Labour people who are impressed and think Labour has been successfully outflanked by the Tory green agenda. But I don't think the old hunting'n'shooting wing has the firepower any longer to organise a threat from the right.

    Yes, but I can't see it being a big enough wedge for people to break away and form a new party.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,846

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The USA is now quite a long distance behind China in the medal table (based on golds)

    Still a distance to go, but I wonder if my prediction will come true: this is the first Olympics (outside China) where China beats the USA

    The US however only counts overall medals, in which they still lead China

    https://www.foxsports.com/summer-olympics/standings
    Not sure they've always done that. Nations seem to do it only when it benefits them - china did so last time so theyd be above us, but I bet they dont this time if it means the US is above them.
    They certainly have since Beijing 2008 I don't remember before but I think it's the way that they've always done it.
    China has drawn level on total medals: 66 each.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57836709
    On total medals GB now 3rd in the world behind China and the US who are joint top and Russian Olympic Committee who are second
    PB pedantry but important for settling bets: China & USA are joint first but they are also joint second; Russia-ish is therefore third and Team GB fourth.

    1= China
    1= USA
    3 not-Russia
    4 Great Britain
    How pathetic are Olympic sanctions if not Russia are allowed to be in the medals table. If you don't have the spine to ban athletes, at least prevent the country from being in the medals table.
    China and USA are not joint first. China is first

    The standard way of doing medal tables, around the world, is by golds. China is well ahead

    Virtually the only country that does it by absolute medal total is America
    40% of British voters say teams should be ranked at the Olympics by total medals won, only 23% by golds won alone

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1422475147362119717?s=20
    British voters can rank Olympics countries however they want. Medals, gold medals, adjusted for population or GDP or (on PB) membership of the EU. It is just froth.
    My ranking algorithm starts with 4 points for a gold, 2 for silver, 1 for bronze, but then I weight the raw medal points for each event by the proportion of previous Olympics that had the event (scaled to between 0.5 and 1):

    W = (N / (2 * T)) + 0.5

    [W is the weighting, T the total number of modern Olympics, N the number of times the event has featured at an Olympics]

    And a further weighting by the proportion of countries entering qualifying competitors in that event:

    Q = E / C

    [Q is the weighting, E the number of countries entering a qualifying athlete in that event, C the total number of countries represented at the Olympics]
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,762
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    On Topic, despite a few ups and downs the polls are basically static at 43-34-10 and if an election was called tomorrow Im sure that would be the result. Tories dip down a little bit when Boris gets bad press but soon recover. The key for me is that Labour are not making any headway at all. At this point in the electoral cycle they should be ahead in the polls but there is absolutely no sign of that. SKS will never win a GE for Labour, its not to do with him being dull and boring, its the way he behaved in 2019 trying all sorts of parliamentary wheezes to prevent a democratic vote, and being all pleased with himself on TV for doing so. People who voted for Brexit will not forgive him for that.

    I think this is bang on and explains Starmer's remarkably poor ratings vis a vis Boris

    eg Starmer wins out over Boris as being more truthful, but by just one percent

    That's like winning out over Boris as "being most faithful to his partner" by 0.5 percent, or getting the same rating on "knowing the exact number of children he has"

    Why? It has to be Brexit. Starmer is apparently a decent well meaning man, a bit dull, quite intelligent, worthy, earnest, but he fucked all of that up by being a duplicitous Remoaner bastard and trying to get a 2nd referendum. He will never be forgiven by a lot of people

    Labour REALLY need a Leaver as leader, or at least someone like Burnham who was not (I don't think?) a 2nd referendum supporter

    People will forgive Remainers, they won't forgive Remoaners

    SKS was always the wrong choice as Labour leader. I have no doubt that he is decent and competent, but he is politically inept. How he could not see the open goal the tories gave him in 2019 is beyond me. Not only did he miss the open goal but he ran down the other end and scored the biggest political own goal this century.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,792

    Leon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 48.1% (-6.1)
    No: 51.9% (+6.1)

    via @BritainElects
    poll tracker, 24 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 13 Jan

    not going to make a difference to how either Sturgeon or Johnson deal with the issue. Sturgeon will continue to push for a referendum (even though it's not clear that They'd win it) and Johnson will continue to refuse to authorise a referendum under the same rules as 2014.

    Sturgeon will eventually either have to call one anyway (which the unionists may boycott) or will have to come up with a way of pushing it into the long grass the way that GB did so effectively with joining the Euro. The difference being that joining the Euro wasn't the main goal of the Labour party though and I'm not sure that the SNP can let it be pushed into the long grass. Not dealt with the Scots will (eventually) tire of the push for independence (especially if everything else starts to slip).
    Disagree. This will make a difference quite quickly

    That's a momentous shift from YES to NO, and the last few polls have all been NO

    Sturgeon needs a sense of public fervour behind her to have even a tiny chance of persuading HMG to allow a vote. She has the opposite, she has declining support, no demand for a vote, and most Scots actually don't want indy

    So her brave new bid for Sindyref2 - coming next month - is going to look ridiculous, as everyone will know she doesn't mean it, she doesn't want a vote, because she absolutely cannot risk losing

    This is important for two reasons, no politician benefits from looking absurd, and - as you imply - this will deepen splits in the Nat movement as the fundamentalists tire of SNP havering
    There's a risk the other way: the UK government calls her bluff, thinking it'd be bound to win a referendum framed on its preferred terms, and it then goes badly wrong.

    High risk for both sides.
    No, Boris will never take that risk - HYUFD is right. Everyone has learned from Cameron's career-ending decision to call Brexit, confident he would win. This includes, by the way, Nicola Sturgeon. She will never call a referendum until she is very sure of winning - or she is forced to at gunpoint by the Tartan Nazis.

    It's a peculiar stand off. No one wants a referendum because no one can be sure of winning. For this reason, I am quite confident no referendum will happen for quite a long time.
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