Page not found – politicalbetting.com

Second like some other athlete who won't get a mention in the headlines.

On topic of course the Donald is a candidate for the Presidency. Even if he fails to secure the GOP ticket he will push them so far to the right that it should be nailed on for a Democrat hold.

I'm short of this at 6. Worst position in my politics portfolio. Well underwater. Drop dead Donald.

I see this on Vanilla at the top of this thread so maybe someone pressed the wrong button?

Page not found – politicalbetting.com

It looks like nothing was found at this location. Maybe try one of the links below or a search?

Read the full story here

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

How does Burnham get into the Commons?

He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM

So far I've followed a lay everyone except Trump and DeSantis strategy for the nomination.
Not sure I'd want to put too much on Trump winning it, though.

StuartDickson said:

MattW said:

StuartDickson said:

MaxPB said:

StuartDickson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

Lol, BetVictor would only allow me £2 @ 50-1 on Tom Daley for SPoTY.

Lucky to get that now he's won. What price Matty Lee?

I wonder if Tom Pidcock counts for the powerful SPotY cycling lobby.

He’s England’s best one-day road cyclist by a long way; and MTB, obviously. But the problem is the UK is unusually obsessed by stage racing and velodrome events, and he doesn’t feature there at all.

Because Team GB has been extremely successful in track cycling events since 2008. A certain Chris Hoy started it all off.

No. Velodrome has been popular in England for over a century. Mainly because road racing was made virtually impossible due to daft local authorities.

And quite a few before Chris Hoy, too. I'm not well acquainted with the Scots, though.

Leaving aside the likes of Chris Boardman, you can go back to folks like Reg Harris, who won 4 world titles in the 1940s/50s.

Did we ever have the Belgian tradition of week-long track races?

Yes. In fact, accordingly to Wikipedia it is not a Belgian tradition but a British one!

“ Six-day races started in Britain, spread to many regions of the world, were brought to their modern style in the United States and are now mainly a European event.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-day_racing

I wonder if the Flemish edition of Wikipedia says the same thing? 😀

(I also wonder what they say about the origins of fish suppers…)

No Flemish version sadly but the French version if anything makes the event seem more anglo-centric, not helped by the fact that the French call the madison "la course à l'américaine". Of course when you think about it the Madison (named after the Square Gardens) is about as American name as they come, but the impact isn't the same.

For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

How can he not win?

He wins. And bravo

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

How does Burnham get into the Commons?

He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM

I can't see how Starmer gets ousted - whatever putsch the loony left thought they were going to pull off is surely dead. So if he goes then he goes on his own terms and you would imagine would have an idea about who succeeds him.

So get Lucy Powell - who nominated Burnham to step upstairs to the Other Place and hand Burnham her Manchester Central seat and its 29k Labour majority. Burnham is an MP before nominations close. Job done.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

I see this on Vanilla at the top of this thread so maybe someone pressed the wrong button?

Page not found – politicalbetting.com

It looks like nothing was found at this location. Maybe try one of the links below or a search?

Read the full story here

Yep, looks like the Vanilla forum got detached from the Wordpress article. Perhaps the latter url was modified after posting?

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

How does Burnham get into the Commons?

He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM

One question is, do Labour go through a May* before that? The other question is whether someone, in more normal post-pandemic times, emerges from the Labour shadow cabinet or beyond (or comes from beyond into the shadow cabinet) who looks like a contender.

*Some might argue Starmer is a May, but he seems to me more of a Howard (sorts the party out a bit after previous terrible leadership, but doesn't trouble the scorers too much) or possibly, if he gets lucky, a Cameron (competent, does really well on detoxifying the brand, but scrapes to a 'win' mainly due to his opponent becoming massively unpopular due to economic armageddon... and then of course proceeds to shaft the Lib Dems who happily take on the role).

Nemtynakht said:

noneoftheabove said:

Nemtynakht said:

Leon said:

For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

How can he not win?

He wins. And bravo

Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.

Should be Sterling. Good at football and diving.

Bravo

Thanks, if you were serious rather than sarky about Rashford, note he should be at least 33/1 to be nominated, so very unlikely even if he would do well if nominated.

StuartDickson said:

If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.

RochdalePioneers said:

Nemtynakht said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.

Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.

Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.

StuartDickson said:

Nigelb said:

StuartDickson said:

If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

How can you judge his complexion under all that orange ?

Fair point. But there must be a reason for the Belisha beacon look. Is it a fashionable colour among elderly Americans? They do seem to have very odd taste.

Can we rule out colour blindness? Tritanopia could make him see himself in a natural-ish shade of pink when he looks in the mirror
https://davidmathlogic.com/colorblind/##D81B60-#1E88E5-#FFC107-#004D40 (third colour down, first image - incidentally one of several good resources for accessible palettes for 8 colours in graphs etc)

Mr. Sandpit, it's like Giggs winning in 2009 when Button won the F1 title.

StuartDickson said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.

They said that about Maggie.

She would have gone on forever if they’d let her.

StuartDickson said:

DougSeal said:

StuartDickson said:

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.

They said that about Maggie.

She would have gone on forever if they’d let her.

Her Maker was a higher power than the 1922 Committee.

That’s what they want you to think.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, it's like Giggs winning in 2009 when Button won the F1 title.

The Great British Public showing a fantastic judge of character there again.

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nemtynakht said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.

Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.

Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.

Which is why I think it doesn't happen until they expect there is going to be a vacancy. Promote Lucy Powell to the Lords and trigger a minimum-notice by-election. Burnham walks it, and on the same day announces both his resignation as Mayor of Greater Lancashire and candidacy as party leader.

Who will run against him? Lisa Nandy perhaps. Dawn Butler (stop sniggering) probably. He will walk it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nemtynakht said:

Leon said:

For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

How can he not win?

He wins. And bravo

Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.

It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.

Daley also came out as gay during that incredible life story. Not uncourageous

I’m sure he has many flaws, but he seems profoundly admirable. Gifted, good looking, intelligent. But also troubled, thwarted, and wounded. He could have surely given up after Rio and had a very pleasant life as a TV celeb and national icon

Yet he knuckled down AGAIN and trained relentlessly for four years and he has now, finally, won Olympic gold at the age of 27.

And he - with Matty Lee - beat the Chinese. Hah

He’s a Hollywood movie ready to be made. A genuine hero. And most sporting personae called heros are really not all that

Just arrived to get my second jab at St Paul’s church in Woking. Decent turnout from the 30 somethings.

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nemtynakht said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.

Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.

Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.

Which is why I think it doesn't happen until they expect there is going to be a vacancy. Promote Lucy Powell to the Lords and trigger a minimum-notice by-election. Burnham walks it, and on the same day announces both his resignation as Mayor of Greater Lancashire and candidacy as party leader.

Who will run against him? Lisa Nandy perhaps. Dawn Butler (stop sniggering) probably. He will walk it.

Surely the likeliest future is that Burnham follows Boris at standing for a seat at the next election.

If Starmer loses and resigns then he can stand for the leadership.
If Starmer wins then he'd probably be in with a shout at a Cabinet position despite not having been in the Shadow Cabinet.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

StuartDickson said:

MattW said:

StuartDickson said:

MaxPB said:

StuartDickson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

Lol, BetVictor would only allow me £2 @ 50-1 on Tom Daley for SPoTY.

Lucky to get that now he's won. What price Matty Lee?

I wonder if Tom Pidcock counts for the powerful SPotY cycling lobby.

He’s England’s best one-day road cyclist by a long way; and MTB, obviously. But the problem is the UK is unusually obsessed by stage racing and velodrome events, and he doesn’t feature there at all.

Because Team GB has been extremely successful in track cycling events since 2008. A certain Chris Hoy started it all off.

No. Velodrome has been popular in England for over a century. Mainly because road racing was made virtually impossible due to daft local authorities.

And quite a few before Chris Hoy, too. I'm not well acquainted with the Scots, though.

Leaving aside the likes of Chris Boardman, you can go back to folks like Reg Harris, who won 4 world titles in the 1940s/50s.

Did we ever have the Belgian tradition of week-long track races?

Yes. In fact, accordingly to Wikipedia it is not a Belgian tradition but a British one!

“ Six-day races started in Britain, spread to many regions of the world, were brought to their modern style in the United States and are now mainly a European event.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-day_racing

I wonder if the Flemish edition of Wikipedia says the same thing? 😀

(I also wonder what they say about the origins of fish suppers…)

No Flemish version sadly but the French version if anything makes the event seem more anglo-centric, not helped by the fact that the French call the madison "la course à l'américaine". Of course when you think about it the Madison (named after the Square Gardens) is about as American name as they come, but the impact isn't the same.

Islingon 1878.

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nemtynakht said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.

Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.

It’s this basic. When Burnham appears on TV, I myself - as a baby-eating Tory-voting Brexiteer - think ‘ok I’ll listen to what he has to say, sometimes he has a point, even if it’s dull’

He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.

So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something

As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should

I didn’t know that about you - that you vote Tory I mean.

Not always. I’ve also voted Green, Lozza, UKIP, Lib Dem, Mebyon Kernow and Binface, amongst others, and with varying degrees of sincerity

Just not Labour. Never Labour. UGH

But I did kind of admire early Blair and I liked his positive, unifying vision of Britain, and I could see Burnham doing similar

noneoftheabove said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nemtynakht said:

Leon said:

For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

How can he not win?

He wins. And bravo

Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.

It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.

Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.

Agreed that, if he golds again, and therefore gets the media coverage, he's also in with a chance.
Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.

I wonder if, so long as Team GB don’t massively overperform, they give the team award to the England football team - which nicely gets them out of having to nominate one of the team for the individual award.

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nemtynakht said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.

Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.

It’s this basic. When Burnham appears on TV, I myself - as a baby-eating Tory-voting Brexiteer - think ‘ok I’ll listen to what he has to say, sometimes he has a point, even if it’s dull’

He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.

So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something

As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should

I didn’t know that about you - that you vote Tory I mean.

Not always. I’ve also voted Green, Lozza, UKIP, Lib Dem, Mebyon Kernow and Binface, amongst others, and with varying degrees of sincerity

Just not Labour. Never Labour. UGH

But I did kind of admire early Blair and I liked his positive, unifying vision of Britain, and I could see Burnham doing similar

I think this is one of your good calls.
Of course it requires quite a bit of other stuff to happen, and he could easily cock it all up, but Burnham is a real possibility.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

How can he not win?

He wins. And bravo

Nice post @Leon . When you look at that as a list of achievements he definitely deserves to win SPOTY.

It's a compelling narrative. A young, handsome guy who has struggled through personal difficulties to reach the pinnacle of his sport.

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

How does Burnham get into the Commons?

He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM

I can't see how Starmer gets ousted - whatever putsch the loony left thought they were going to pull off is surely dead. So if he goes then he goes on his own terms and you would imagine would have an idea about who succeeds him.

So get Lucy Powell - who nominated Burnham to step upstairs to the Other Place and hand Burnham her Manchester Central seat and its 29k Labour majority. Burnham is an MP before nominations close. Job done.

There are two separate issues about Andy Burnham. Can he become and MP and be a candidate for leader. Yes.

Is he elected PM material? In general all elections have been won for decades now by the party with the more electable leader; this combines relative qualities (May v Jezza where both were almost equally unelectable) and absolute qualities, where stellar (at the time) candidates outshone the alternative (Cameron, Major, Thatcher, Blair, Boris.)

The question is whether Burnham is likely to be more electable than the Tory alternative. This is a question for both parties. Labour should only put in a new leader when they are sure that a they have someone who is a clear winner. The Tories, who have become slightly better at this, will, I think, certainly do so. They will never risk a T May again.

If Burnham is the clear number 1 choice then I feel Labour may have a personnel problem. He would beat a weak Tory leader but not an outstanding one. That risks Labour being out of power, assuming SKS leads into a 2023 election until well into the 2030s.

StuartDickson said:

If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

According to the doctor Contrarian referenced from the Fox interview he reckoned if it wasn't for his diet he would live to 200!

After the discussion with Contrarian I had a look at the Fox piece on Biden's 'dementia'. Now I have no idea if he has dementia or not, but that piece added nothing to the debate whatsoever and the fact that Contrarian thinks Fox is just 'right leaning' tells you everything you need to know about people who absorb their output.

RochdalePioneers said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Nemtynakht said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:

Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.

Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.

Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.

Yep. His best shot is to hope that Starmer is still there at the next election (which is big odds-on, Lab are crap at getting rid of leaders), and that he can find a safe seat to get into (which shouldn’t be too difficult).

Burnham’s big worry (from the point of view of leadership ambitions) is that the general election is early, and he looks like he’s running away from Manchester soon after they re-elected him.

Burnham won't run in the GE in 2023. If Starmer goes afterwards they will parachute him into a safe seat if they want him and he wants it.

Yep. This must be plan A if available. Otherwise a nightmare scenario beckons of him going back to Westminster and then Lab do well enough in the GE to make Starmer PM. Andy gets Work & Pensions.

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

I wonder if, so long as Team GB don’t massively overperform, they give the team award to the England football team - which nicely gets them out of having to nominate one of the team for the individual award.

Giving the team award to Team GB is stupid. Team of the year should go to an actual team rather than just a collection of individuals and teams competing for us.

If you've likely not met let alone know the names of a good chunk of the group, it's not a team

A fair few over 40s getting their second AZ dose today.

Cakeism:

NEW: Keir Starmer says he supports the deputy speaker for kicking out Dawn Butler but he also supports Dawn Butler for what she said

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419595475485925376?s=20

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nemtynakht said:

Leon said:

For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

How can he not win?

He wins. And bravo

Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.

It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.

Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.

Agreed that, if he golds again, and therefore gets the media coverage, he's also in with a chance.
Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.

Looked a bit more at the relays and think we should be (fairly close) second favs to US on both men and mixed medleys, with the mixed the better chance. Betting market has us about 3/1 for mens, 9/2 for mixed. Mixed feels like a value bet.

Nigelb said:

I see TSMC are contemplating a new chip foundry in Germany; Intel, also.
The window for the UK getting back into chip manufacturing in any significant way is closing.

It went when we left the EU - I suspect even a vague comment on tariffs from the EU would be enough to shift it to Germany (where expertise in manufacturing these chips actually exists).

DecrepiterJohnL said:

I see this on Vanilla at the top of this thread so maybe someone pressed the wrong button?

Page not found – politicalbetting.com

It looks like nothing was found at this location. Maybe try one of the links below or a search?

Read the full story here

Best piece I've read in an age.

DougSeal said:

It looks as if there will never be a Gen X (born between 1964 and 1979 according to the US Social Security Administration) President. Boomers (plus Biden who is older than the Boomers) will have dominated the Presidency from 1992 to 2028 at this rate whereupon the Millennials will likely take over as the changing of the guard. Kamala Harris maybe - but she’s unlikely to win and on the cusp anyway. I certainly can’t think of a potential contender born in the 70s*

*Mia Culpa - de Santis was born in ‘78.

This, basically, is the story of GenX. We are a pointless generation, who serve only to pay for the pensions of the Boomers.

kjh said:

Leon said:

For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

How can he not win?

He wins. And bravo

I agree he must be a pretty strong runner, but we don't know what is to come. I would have also put Mark Cavendish up there (for exactly the same sort of reasons), but maybe has has scuppered his chances by not winning in Paris. If he had of done so I think he would have been difficult to beat.

Yes, I think Cavendish might have been a major threat - esp with the cycling lobby - but he just lost. It really matters

Setting aside Daley’s personal tragedy and gay status (tho his bravery in both are estimable) what marks out Daley is the sequence. Bronze, bronze, GOLD. That’s 12 years of relentless Olympic training, finally paying off. Imagine the tedious days of diving, hour after hour, year after year. Finally he gets there. And he could so easily have quit and been rich and leisured.

That’s quite something

CarlottaVance said:

Cakeism:

NEW: Keir Starmer says he supports the deputy speaker for kicking out Dawn Butler but he also supports Dawn Butler for what she said

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419595475485925376?s=20

True, but I think its defendable. He agrees with her view, even though he agrees the rules mean the Deputy Speaker had to take that action.

It's the histrionics about it being outrageous there are rules on parliamentary language that irritate me, the idea it was wrong she be made to leave (and she obviously wanted that outcome or the stunt would have failed).

I have less of an issue with people saying she was right, even though it meant she was tossed out as a result, than faux outrage about the existence of rules.