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  • ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Floater said:

    This is unusually blunt

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sebastian-kurz-exklusiv-ich-will-diese-kranke-ideologie-nicht-in-europa-77190376.bild.html

    AUSTRIA'S CHANCELLOR BRIEFLY ON IMMIGRANT ISLAMISM
    "I don't want this sick ideology in Europe"

    Luckily no Austrian has ever been responsible for any kind of sick ideology.
    Point of order. The person to whom you presumably refer self-identified as Deutsch. Very firmly so.
    He wasn’t so hot on self-identification though.
    To be accurate, Hitler only became a Greater Germany guy after WWI - previously the Austro-Hungarian Empire had too many errrrr...... non-Germans in it for his taste. WIth it reduced to just Austria.....
    Interesting fact - Hitler was stripped of Austrian citizenship in 1925, but didn’t receive German citizenship until 1932 when he needed it to stand in the Presidential elections. For seven years, he was stateless.
    So for seven years he was in fact a rootless cosmopolitan?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 9,124
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer really is a gigantic moron isn't he. His plan on vaccine passports is completely incoherent, it's not opposition and it's also not support. I really don't know where he stands on the idea. Is it that tests should be allowed instead of being double jabbed or does a negative test need to be had in addition to a double jab to have a valid entry for clubs and sports venues. I follow this stuff pretty closely and I can't make heads or tails of Labour's position, what hope does man on the street have?!

    Maybe it's because his main political experience before becoming LOTO was in creating impenetrable positions on Brexit. He thinks that's what opposition is all about.
    I seem to remember you supported most of those before being struck by a flash of light on the road to Boston Lincolnshire.
    The difference is williamglenn isn't the leader of the opposition.
    He might make a better job of it perhaps. Then again, I know nothing of his background, but I suspect he would also make a better job of PM than the current incumbent. It is said that a country gets the politicians it deserves. What the feck did the UK do to deserve this lot?
    A certain former SPAD wrote a blog and quite a few articles stating that this is what the political system we have produces - generalists who can blag on a subject without any requirement to *know* anything. Indeed, it is a disadvantage.
    I have posted on here before about the lack of educational diversity in the cabinet (only one scientistperson who successfully graduated from kindergarten). It is exactly what most sensible corporations are now looking to avoid.
    FTFY.
    As Monty Python once said, "I don't follow your banter"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    mwadams said:

    DougSeal said:

    26 July 2021
    Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.

    UK figures for 26 July 2021: 24,950 new cases | 46,589,211 people have now received the first dose of a vaccine | 37,287,384 have received a 2nd dose

    34,657 last Monday in England. Decent drop.
    28% drop Monday-on-Monday. That's very encouraging.
    Mixed up my stats - the figure FrancisU quoted was UK - whereas I quoted England for last week. It's a drop of exactly 15,000 week-on-week for the UK.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    26 July 2021
    Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.

    UK figures for 26 July 2021: 24,950 new cases | 46,589,211 people have now received the first dose of a vaccine | 37,287,384 have received a 2nd dose

    34,657 last Monday in England. Decent drop.

    EDIT - see that the 24,950 is today's UK total. Last Monday the UK recorded 39,950. Those with tin hats will be pointing at the round 15,000 drop no doubt.
    Ah I was looking at by specimen date and saw 46,792
  • Pulpstar said:

    We remove a massive source of the unvaccinated milling around amongst each other for 8 hours a day and cases fall :p

    Odd isn’t it. Seen in Scotland, predicted by some in here (me included) yet the doom sayers didn’t see it coming. No sign of @chris. I’m worried for him.
    Don’t worry about him.

    Speaking from a lifetime of experience being the smartest person in so many rooms is very tiring.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Floater said:

    This is unusually blunt

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sebastian-kurz-exklusiv-ich-will-diese-kranke-ideologie-nicht-in-europa-77190376.bild.html

    AUSTRIA'S CHANCELLOR BRIEFLY ON IMMIGRANT ISLAMISM
    "I don't want this sick ideology in Europe"

    Luckily no Austrian has ever been responsible for any kind of sick ideology.
    Point of order. The person to whom you presumably refer self-identified as Deutsch. Very firmly so.
    He wasn’t so hot on self-identification though.
    To be accurate, Hitler only became a Greater Germany guy after WWI - previously the Austro-Hungarian Empire had too many errrrr...... non-Germans in it for his taste. WIth it reduced to just Austria.....
    Interesting fact - Hitler was stripped of Austrian citizenship in 1925, but didn’t receive German citizenship until 1932 when he needed it to stand in the Presidential elections. For seven years, he was stateless.
    So for seven years he was in fact a rootless cosmopolitan?
    Are you referring to the rumours about his grandfather?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,646
    Pulpstar said:

    We remove a massive source of the unvaccinated milling around amongst each other for 8 hours a day and cases fall :p

    Yes and I don't know why so many people are surprised - it's exactly what happened last year before vaccines came along. In the mid to late summer, we were down to <10 deaths per day and < 1000 cases but those of us looking at what was actually happening knew in August it was all going to unravel.

    This year, we have vaccination and that makes all the difference.

    However, school closure buys us 4-6 weeks. How are we going to use that time so that by early September we don't re-open the schools and start the cycle rolling once again? We have to keep monitoring the efficacy of the vaccines - many will be 3-5 months after their second vaccination. What about those who acquired immunity through infection?

    When, how and for whom will the "booster" shot be administered?

    If we're not going to fritter away valuable time celebrating hard-won "freedoms" and "victories", let's hear what kind of plan Government has for the rest of summer and autumn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    edited July 2021
    That grinding noise you can hear....iSAGE lot moving the goal posts again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946
    DougSeal said:

    mwadams said:

    DougSeal said:

    26 July 2021
    Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.

    UK figures for 26 July 2021: 24,950 new cases | 46,589,211 people have now received the first dose of a vaccine | 37,287,384 have received a 2nd dose

    34,657 last Monday in England. Decent drop.
    28% drop Monday-on-Monday. That's very encouraging.
    Mixed up my stats - the figure FrancisU quoted was UK - whereas I quoted England for last week. It's a drop of exactly 15,000 week-on-week for the UK.
    40% down? GET IN(side and screw vaccine passports).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785
    White House confirms it’s maintaining travel ban on UK and Schengen countries imposed by Pres Trump last March. Cites delta variant. Will be blow to airlines and tourism industry hoping to salvage something from summer season. But most of all blow to families desperate to reunite … What would make the @JoeBiden decision more compelling is if the US administration was taking any steps to mitigate the spread of the #DeltaVariant WITHIN the US. But it’s not. So what difference is the one way travel ban making? The US is hardly Australia or New Zealand.

    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1419677746230439938?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858
    Builders hair

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/490/cpsprodpb/EFC0/production/_119567316_raynerjobs.jpg


    Undoubtedly there's a regulation about hard-hats, but is there one about high-vis waiscoats?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946

    More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651

    I’ve probably lost about half a stone doing ten miles of walking in this heat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946
    Omnium said:

    Builders hair

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/490/cpsprodpb/EFC0/production/_119567316_raynerjobs.jpg


    Undoubtedly there's a regulation about hard-hats, but is there one about high-vis waiscoats?

    That can be taken as red.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    ydoethur said:

    More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651

    I’ve probably lost about half a stone doing ten miles of walking in this heat.
    I nearly flooded my home gym with sweat the other day doing a Zwift session when it was 39o in there.....
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,451

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Its Delta'a arrowhead wave
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858

    Pulpstar said:

    We remove a massive source of the unvaccinated milling around amongst each other for 8 hours a day and cases fall :p

    Odd isn’t it. Seen in Scotland, predicted by some in here (me included) yet the doom sayers didn’t see it coming. No sign of @chris. I’m worried for him.
    Don’t worry about him.

    Speaking from a lifetime of experience being the smartest person in so many rooms is very tiring.
    We really should try to club together to free you from that isolation cave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520

    White House confirms it’s maintaining travel ban on UK and Schengen countries imposed by Pres Trump last March. Cites delta variant. Will be blow to airlines and tourism industry hoping to salvage something from summer season. But most of all blow to families desperate to reunite … What would make the @JoeBiden decision more compelling is if the US administration was taking any steps to mitigate the spread of the #DeltaVariant WITHIN the US. But it’s not. So what difference is the one way travel ban making? The US is hardly Australia or New Zealand.

    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1419677746230439938?s=20

    Does Jon Sopel have a holiday back to the UK booked or something?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221

    More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651

    I wish it was just half a stone. Chap I know has lost 2.5, which affects our average.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785
    edited July 2021


    BREAKING: UK and France sign new maritime treaty to enhance security of channel crossing.

    The treaty enables joint and coordinated action to be taken by UK and French forces to keep people safe on ferries or other large vessels in the Channel.


    https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1419678916122497024?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,727
    edited July 2021

    More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651

    Ties in with the fact that the UK was the only country in Europe to drink more alcohol during the pandemic.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,695

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Its Delta'a arrowhead wave
    something something 100,000 cases something
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    I may have caused confusion- apologies


  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,648

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Its Delta'a arrowhead wave
    something something 100,000 cases something
    Weren't we promised a million a week?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer really is a gigantic moron isn't he. His plan on vaccine passports is completely incoherent, it's not opposition and it's also not support. I really don't know where he stands on the idea. Is it that tests should be allowed instead of being double jabbed or does a negative test need to be had in addition to a double jab to have a valid entry for clubs and sports venues. I follow this stuff pretty closely and I can't make heads or tails of Labour's position, what hope does man on the street have?!

    Maybe it's because his main political experience before becoming LOTO was in creating impenetrable positions on Brexit. He thinks that's what opposition is all about.
    I seem to remember you supported most of those before being struck by a flash of light on the road to Boston Lincolnshire.
    The difference is williamglenn isn't the leader of the opposition.
    He might make a better job of it perhaps. Then again, I know nothing of his background, but I suspect he would also make a better job of PM than the current incumbent. It is said that a country gets the politicians it deserves. What the feck did the UK do to deserve this lot?
    Voted for them. Several times, some of them.

    Incidentally I'd refine that saying to read that a "democratic" country gets the politicians it deserves, since no-one really deserves a Stalin or a Saddam Hussein.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221

    Quincel said:



    And also of his reputation working for him as planned. A memorable joke about him proposing to his fiance (at the time) and telling her she'd made him 'The happiest man alive' in a dull monotone, for example.

    My grandmother used to enjoy the story of walking along the Nevsky Prospekt with her then boyfriend, who was reading the paper as they walked. He looked up and said, "Do you think we should get married?" She said, "That would be lovely" and he replied "Ah, good." and returned to his paper. I always thought it shocking but she found it incredibly endearing.
    Whatever works! Ostentatious displays might be right for some but just cringy for others.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954

    White House confirms it’s maintaining travel ban on UK and Schengen countries imposed by Pres Trump last March. Cites delta variant. Will be blow to airlines and tourism industry hoping to salvage something from summer season. But most of all blow to families desperate to reunite … What would make the @JoeBiden decision more compelling is if the US administration was taking any steps to mitigate the spread of the #DeltaVariant WITHIN the US. But it’s not. So what difference is the one way travel ban making? The US is hardly Australia or New Zealand.

    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1419677746230439938?s=20

    It’s theatre. They’re letting their own citizens in, unlike Aus and NZ, without quarantine. The wife’s over there at the mo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946
    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We remove a massive source of the unvaccinated milling around amongst each other for 8 hours a day and cases fall :p

    Odd isn’t it. Seen in Scotland, predicted by some in here (me included) yet the doom sayers didn’t see it coming. No sign of @chris. I’m worried for him.
    Don’t worry about him.

    Speaking from a lifetime of experience being the smartest person in so many rooms is very tiring.
    We really should try to club together to free you from that isolation cave.
    One of the nice things about living alone is you are always the smartest person in your house.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,644
    DougSeal said:

    moonshine said:

    Candy said:

    Quincel said:



    On a tangent, I believe Andy Murray is much more interesting than we see and the mumbling is an intentional act. As a young player he was once interviewed and mentioned in football he supports 'Scotland, and whoever plays England of course' as a joke. But his rather dry tone and the media's lack of subtlety meant that there were a spate of headlines about his rude Scottish arrogance. He decided after to be as un-newsworthy as possible in future so he could focus on the tennis.

    The reason Andy Murray doesn't like talking much to the press, is because the press kept asking him about Dunblane (he was an eight-year-old hiding in a classroom in that school when the massacre happened).

    He was uncomfortable with that - he's not into the recent fashion of talking about trauma and victimhood in childhood.

    His mumbling and brusqueness has been successful in that most people don't know about the Dunblane thing and only know that he was the Wimbledon Champion.
    I’ve always found Andy Murray a breath of fresh air in interviews. He tends to be quite gracious in defeat and gives thoughtful technical answers about the performance and relative strengths of both he and his opponent.
    His “anyone but England” comment was completely misrepresented too. Herman and BBC bod were roundly taking the piss out of Scotland not qualifying in 2006 and his response was lighthearted in the same context. But the way the press reported it cost him support. I wouldn’t trust the media in all those circumstances
    One thing I've picked up on other the years is don't provide a long nor complex answer where a bit of it can be used (without the context) to say something completely different.

    That Andy Murray example is a prime example of that.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Floater said:

    This is unusually blunt

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sebastian-kurz-exklusiv-ich-will-diese-kranke-ideologie-nicht-in-europa-77190376.bild.html

    AUSTRIA'S CHANCELLOR BRIEFLY ON IMMIGRANT ISLAMISM
    "I don't want this sick ideology in Europe"

    Luckily no Austrian has ever been responsible for any kind of sick ideology.
    Point of order. The person to whom you presumably refer self-identified as Deutsch. Very firmly so.
    He wasn’t so hot on self-identification though.
    To be accurate, Hitler only became a Greater Germany guy after WWI - previously the Austro-Hungarian Empire had too many errrrr...... non-Germans in it for his taste. WIth it reduced to just Austria.....
    Interesting fact - Hitler was stripped of Austrian citizenship in 1925, but didn’t receive German citizenship until 1932 when he needed it to stand in the Presidential elections. For seven years, he was stateless.
    So for seven years he was in fact a rootless cosmopolitan?
    He was rootless, but there was nothing whatever cosmopolitan about him.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,695
    kle4 said:

    Piers Morgan doesn't actually think this stuff, he is just trying to get seen, how has nobody seen this yet

    It is a bit try hard for an outrage provocation.
    but what about Piers?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785

    White House confirms it’s maintaining travel ban on UK and Schengen countries imposed by Pres Trump last March. Cites delta variant. Will be blow to airlines and tourism industry hoping to salvage something from summer season. But most of all blow to families desperate to reunite … What would make the @JoeBiden decision more compelling is if the US administration was taking any steps to mitigate the spread of the #DeltaVariant WITHIN the US. But it’s not. So what difference is the one way travel ban making? The US is hardly Australia or New Zealand.

    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1419677746230439938?s=20

    Does Jon Sopel have a holiday back to the UK booked or something?
    Wouldn’t affect that as he’s still able to travel - it’s any family in the UK that won’t be able to visit him. It is a bit daft - they’ve already got DELTA and lower vaccination rates than many European countries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221
    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer really is a gigantic moron isn't he. His plan on vaccine passports is completely incoherent, it's not opposition and it's also not support. I really don't know where he stands on the idea. Is it that tests should be allowed instead of being double jabbed or does a negative test need to be had in addition to a double jab to have a valid entry for clubs and sports venues. I follow this stuff pretty closely and I can't make heads or tails of Labour's position, what hope does man on the street have?!

    Maybe it's because his main political experience before becoming LOTO was in creating impenetrable positions on Brexit. He thinks that's what opposition is all about.
    I seem to remember you supported most of those before being struck by a flash of light on the road to Boston Lincolnshire.
    The difference is williamglenn isn't the leader of the opposition.
    He might make a better job of it perhaps. Then again, I know nothing of his background, but I suspect he would also make a better job of PM than the current incumbent. It is said that a country gets the politicians it deserves. What the feck did the UK do to deserve this lot?
    Voted for them. Several times, some of them.

    Incidentally I'd refine that saying to read that a "democratic" country gets the politicians it deserves, since no-one really deserves a Stalin or a Saddam Hussein.
    I read a bio of Saddam a long time ago which I think said he had a whole mini library of books on Stalin.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 252
    edited July 2021

    That grinding noise you can hear....iSAGE lot moving the goal posts again.

    "Experts claim fall in cases proves we can only reopen schools in September if we all go back into lockdown..."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Its Delta'a arrowhead wave
    something something 100,000 cases something
    To be fair, the members of IndieSage on their own would be about 100,000 cases. Just not of Covid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946
    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer really is a gigantic moron isn't he. His plan on vaccine passports is completely incoherent, it's not opposition and it's also not support. I really don't know where he stands on the idea. Is it that tests should be allowed instead of being double jabbed or does a negative test need to be had in addition to a double jab to have a valid entry for clubs and sports venues. I follow this stuff pretty closely and I can't make heads or tails of Labour's position, what hope does man on the street have?!

    Maybe it's because his main political experience before becoming LOTO was in creating impenetrable positions on Brexit. He thinks that's what opposition is all about.
    I seem to remember you supported most of those before being struck by a flash of light on the road to Boston Lincolnshire.
    The difference is williamglenn isn't the leader of the opposition.
    He might make a better job of it perhaps. Then again, I know nothing of his background, but I suspect he would also make a better job of PM than the current incumbent. It is said that a country gets the politicians it deserves. What the feck did the UK do to deserve this lot?
    Voted for them. Several times, some of them.

    Incidentally I'd refine that saying to read that a "democratic" country gets the politicians it deserves, since no-one really deserves a Stalin or a Saddam Hussein.
    I read a bio of Saddam a long time ago which I think said he had a whole mini library of books on Stalin.
    And his razor?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    edited July 2021
    Ratters said:

    That grinding noise you can hear....iSAGE lot moving the goal posts again.

    "Experts claim fall in cases proves we can only reopen schools in September if we all go back into lockdown..."
    No...cases falling means we can only safely reopen schools if all children are vaccinated by tomorrow will be their new line.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,891
    Covid-19 Vaccine Pioneer BioNTech Plans to Make New Malaria and Tuberculosis Shots in Africa
    German company aims to help continent that imports 99% of its vaccines develop local production facilities

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-pioneer-biontech-plans-to-make-new-malaria-and-tuberculosis-shots-in-africa-11627308000

    Does anyone know how UK efforts are going on this type of initiative?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113
    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer really is a gigantic moron isn't he. His plan on vaccine passports is completely incoherent, it's not opposition and it's also not support. I really don't know where he stands on the idea. Is it that tests should be allowed instead of being double jabbed or does a negative test need to be had in addition to a double jab to have a valid entry for clubs and sports venues. I follow this stuff pretty closely and I can't make heads or tails of Labour's position, what hope does man on the street have?!

    Maybe it's because his main political experience before becoming LOTO was in creating impenetrable positions on Brexit. He thinks that's what opposition is all about.
    I seem to remember you supported most of those before being struck by a flash of light on the road to Boston Lincolnshire.
    The difference is williamglenn isn't the leader of the opposition.
    He might make a better job of it perhaps. Then again, I know nothing of his background, but I suspect he would also make a better job of PM than the current incumbent. It is said that a country gets the politicians it deserves. What the feck did the UK do to deserve this lot?
    Voted for them. Several times, some of them.

    Incidentally I'd refine that saying to read that a "democratic" country gets the politicians it deserves, since no-one really deserves a Stalin or a Saddam Hussein.
    I read a bio of Saddam a long time ago which I think said he had a whole mini library of books on Stalin.
    ... and Stalin was quite a student of Ivan the Terrible ...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,989

    Should we be worried about the heat map of Cases by specimen date age demographics?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

    That concerns me a little. I guess the key piece of information is the balance of vaccinated to unvaccinated cases as it progresses into older people. If it's mainly vaccinated mild cases, then there are fewer hospital capacity worries than if it is finding the unvaccinated effectively.

    Watch for how deaths and hospitalisation follow cases, or not, in the next couple of weeks. I have to say, the Hospitalisation increase has been slowing down.

    The other thing is that the decrease in cases is for something of a hiatus period - after the Euros but before the nightclub reopening. I expect clubbing is a large enough niche to turn the case figures northwards again temporarily, though with the decrease now, I'm hopeful it will not top the case figures of a week or so ago.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,560
    NEW – Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 39% (-)
    LAB 37% (+1)
    LD 10% (-)
    GRN 5% (-)
    SNP 4% (-)
    OTH 5% (-1)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July ‘21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21.
    https://www.survation.com/23-july-uk-politics-poll/ https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1419682025787822084/photo/1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785
    On Devi:

    I don't think this kind of systematic undermining of our expert committees nationally and internationally, when their decisions are extremely clear and open, is helpful. Better to engage with arguments than insinuate.

    https://twitter.com/TAH_Sci/status/1419608616542294018?s=20
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,719

    Quincel said:



    And also of his reputation working for him as planned. A memorable joke about him proposing to his fiance (at the time) and telling her she'd made him 'The happiest man alive' in a dull monotone, for example.

    My grandmother used to enjoy the story of walking along the Nevsky Prospekt with her then boyfriend, who was reading the paper as they walked. He looked up and said, "Do you think we should get married?" She said, "That would be lovely" and he replied "Ah, good." and returned to his paper. I always thought it shocking but she found it incredibly endearing.
    Yes, that’s much preferable to popping the question at half-time in front of a filled to capacity Wembley Stadium. I’d just love it for once, the woman said no.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113
    I'm in rural California at the moment, just killing a few minutes before I need to go out. It's truly amazing doing anything here - nobody wears masks and nobody comments on each other's choices. It really feels like being back in 2019. Very liberating.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,560
    NEW – Leadership Favourability Ratings:

    Boris Johnson / Keir Starmer

    Net Rating: -10% (+3) / -2% (+12)

    Favourable 37% (+2) / 33% (+6)
    Neutral 15% (-2) / 26% (+1)
    Unfavourable 47% (-1) / 35% (-7)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July '21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1419683085403176960/photo/1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (=)
    LAB: 37% (+2)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN 5% (=)
    SNP 4% (=)

    Via @Survation 23 Jul.
    Changes w/ 19-20 Jul.


    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682164468297733?s=20
  • RattersRatters Posts: 252

    Ratters said:

    That grinding noise you can hear....iSAGE lot moving the goal posts again.

    "Experts claim fall in cases proves we can only reopen schools in September if we all go back into lockdown..."
    No...cases falling means we can only safely reopen schools if all children are vaccinated by tomorrow will be their new line.
    Quite possibly. Although having an open debate on vaccinating 12+ is reasonable given it has been signed off as safe for them by MRHA and this recent fall supports the suggestion they help drive case levels more widely.

    I don't know the answer, but I think the choice should be between either:
    1) decide to start vaccinating children en masse
    2) don't vaccinate children, but remove all testing/isolation requirements of children in schools from September

    Not vaccinating but continuing to disrupt their education feels the worst of both worlds for them.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 39% (-)
    LAB 37% (+1)
    LD 10% (-)
    GRN 5% (-)
    SNP 4% (-)
    OTH 5% (-1)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July ‘21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21.
    https://www.survation.com/23-july-uk-politics-poll/ https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1419682025787822084/photo/1

    On a GB basis the figures would be Con 40% Lab 38%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785
    edited July 2021
    That’s a big difference:

    Poll – Labour voters are more likely to be annoyed at a friend voting Tory than a Tory voter would be at a friend voting Labour

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682003889315842?s=20

    15% & 46% respectively…..
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    This bloke's good -

    @grodaeu
    · Jul 14
    My baselines scenario is: By a massive stroke of luck UK virus numbers peak on opening day. The increase in infections due to opening will not be enough to turn the curve back up again. The idiot running UK will look like a genius. twitter.com/JamesWard73/st…

    https://twitter.com/grodaeu/status/1415417434824118272
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – Leadership Favourability Ratings:

    Boris Johnson / Keir Starmer

    Net Rating: -10% (+3) / -2% (+12)

    Favourable 37% (+2) / 33% (+6)
    Neutral 15% (-2) / 26% (+1)
    Unfavourable 47% (-1) / 35% (-7)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July '21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1419683085403176960/photo/1

    Boris still has a 4 point lead over Keir.

    Is Keir ever going to breakthrough?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,632
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Beyond nonsense. Imagine you’re an incredibly poor athlete from an incredibly poor country, given no chance in some sport, and you produce the performance of your life and you win AN OLYMPIC MEDAL

    In front of the world. Your flag flying. I’m trying not to be patronizing and first-world-y but I’ve actually seen this happen in poor countries. The pride is real, and fierce. And it inspires others. Then they go on to win golds, maybe

    My god, what a dick. And he has absolutely zero understanding of Olympic sport

    I saw it suggested that every Olympic event include one 'average' person to illustrate just how exceptional these performances are
    Bit harsh on the poor sod who gets given the 10km open water swim.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,322
    Pro_Rata said:

    Should we be worried about the heat map of Cases by specimen date age demographics?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

    That concerns me a little. I guess the key piece of information is the balance of vaccinated to unvaccinated cases as it progresses into older people. If it's mainly vaccinated mild cases, then there are fewer hospital capacity worries than if it is finding the unvaccinated effectively.

    Watch for how deaths and hospitalisation follow cases, or not, in the next couple of weeks. I have to say, the Hospitalisation increase has been slowing down.

    The other thing is that the decrease in cases is for something of a hiatus period - after the Euros but before the nightclub reopening. I expect clubbing is a large enough niche to turn the case figures northwards again temporarily, though with the decrease now, I'm hopeful it will not top the case figures of a week or so ago.
    It's massively the younger groups making up the cases

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 39% (-)
    LAB 37% (+1)
    LD 10% (-)
    GRN 5% (-)
    SNP 4% (-)
    OTH 5% (-1)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July ‘21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21.
    https://www.survation.com/23-july-uk-politics-poll/ https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1419682025787822084/photo/1

    Tasty. Hope it keeps government on its toes.
  • Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Floater said:

    This is unusually blunt

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sebastian-kurz-exklusiv-ich-will-diese-kranke-ideologie-nicht-in-europa-77190376.bild.html

    AUSTRIA'S CHANCELLOR BRIEFLY ON IMMIGRANT ISLAMISM
    "I don't want this sick ideology in Europe"

    Luckily no Austrian has ever been responsible for any kind of sick ideology.
    Point of order. The person to whom you presumably refer self-identified as Deutsch. Very firmly so.
    He wasn’t so hot on self-identification though.
    To be accurate, Hitler only became a Greater Germany guy after WWI - previously the Austro-Hungarian Empire had too many errrrr...... non-Germans in it for his taste. WIth it reduced to just Austria.....
    Interesting fact - Hitler was stripped of Austrian citizenship in 1925, but didn’t receive German citizenship until 1932 when he needed it to stand in the Presidential elections. For seven years, he was stateless.
    So for seven years he was in fact a rootless cosmopolitan?
    He was rootless, but there was nothing whatever cosmopolitan about him.
    *Whoosh*
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,281

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – Leadership Favourability Ratings:

    Boris Johnson / Keir Starmer

    Net Rating: -10% (+3) / -2% (+12)

    Favourable 37% (+2) / 33% (+6)
    Neutral 15% (-2) / 26% (+1)
    Unfavourable 47% (-1) / 35% (-7)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July '21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1419683085403176960/photo/1

    Boris still has a 4 point lead over Keir.

    Is Keir ever going to breakthrough?
    Sir Kier has an 8 point net favourability rating over Mr Johnson. So yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221

    That’s a big difference:

    Poll – Labour voters are more likely to be annoyed at a friend voting Tory than a Tory voter would be at a friend voting Labour

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682003889315842?s=20

    15% & 46% respectively…..

    What about disappointed, would that reverse things? As the cliche is Labour thinks Tory supporters are bad people, Tories think Labour supporters are stupid people.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,727
    Boris's opening up on 19th July doesn't seem to have generated the increase in cases that many were expecting.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785
    edited July 2021
    Peston doubling down:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1419683463192530944?s=20

    The replies are brutal
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Floater said:

    This is unusually blunt

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sebastian-kurz-exklusiv-ich-will-diese-kranke-ideologie-nicht-in-europa-77190376.bild.html

    AUSTRIA'S CHANCELLOR BRIEFLY ON IMMIGRANT ISLAMISM
    "I don't want this sick ideology in Europe"

    Luckily no Austrian has ever been responsible for any kind of sick ideology.
    Point of order. The person to whom you presumably refer self-identified as Deutsch. Very firmly so.
    He wasn’t so hot on self-identification though.
    To be accurate, Hitler only became a Greater Germany guy after WWI - previously the Austro-Hungarian Empire had too many errrrr...... non-Germans in it for his taste. WIth it reduced to just Austria.....
    Interesting fact - Hitler was stripped of Austrian citizenship in 1925, but didn’t receive German citizenship until 1932 when he needed it to stand in the Presidential elections. For seven years, he was stateless.
    So for seven years he was in fact a rootless cosmopolitan?
    Are you referring to the rumours about his grandfather?
    Nah, cheap gag about Hitler being Jewish using one of Stalin's (in)famous antisemitic lines.

    Even to this day I cannot get my ahead the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

    Given how much Hitler detested the Bolsheviks he went into alliance with Stalin's CCCP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    edited July 2021
    "sort of amazed anyone should think that is controversial or tendentious"

    FFS....this man isn't just a moron, he is a danger to public health.

    He is spreading a mad conspiracy theory and given the number of replies he had on twitter from accounts that aren't bob595377 i.e of some public standing, he is ignoring the evidence he has been presented.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,661
    rkrkrk said:

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
    I don't think it's much to do with schools.

    If you look at how this iteration of the virus has spread, hitting populous, dense parts of Scotland and Northern England first, then the Midlands, then routing south, it is running out of high density niches to hit, and so prevalence is falling.

    It is running out of the herd-vulnerable, if you like.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,727
    That elusive Labour lead can't be long in coming.
  • He's like someone who gets excited by 1% change in voting intention figures, apparently it signifies something huge.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,526

    More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651

    Over a typical 18 month period, what are the normal numbers?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785
    kle4 said:

    That’s a big difference:

    Poll – Labour voters are more likely to be annoyed at a friend voting Tory than a Tory voter would be at a friend voting Labour

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682003889315842?s=20

    15% & 46% respectively…..

    What about disappointed, would that reverse things? As the cliche is Labour thinks Tory supporters are bad people, Tories think Labour supporters are stupid people.
    The quote I remember is Labour think Tories are bad people, Tories think Labour are good people who believe bad ideas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    edited July 2021
    Straight away response to the pillock that is Peston...

    Policy driven? By whom?

    You said “the daily tally of infections seriously understates the actual number of infections”. Which is demonstrably false.

    There’s no misunderstanding I can see - it’s entirely misinformation on your part, I’m afraid. And it should have been corrected.

    https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1419684876895330304?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221

    He's like someone who gets excited by 1% change in voting intention figures, apparently it signifies something huge.
    Thank goodness we don't know anyone like that. Ahem. *shifts nervously*
  • More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651

    I feel even smugger now.

    Have to admit I'm not looking forward to returning to the office and having to go for those calorific work lunches.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,322

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Floater said:

    This is unusually blunt

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sebastian-kurz-exklusiv-ich-will-diese-kranke-ideologie-nicht-in-europa-77190376.bild.html

    AUSTRIA'S CHANCELLOR BRIEFLY ON IMMIGRANT ISLAMISM
    "I don't want this sick ideology in Europe"

    Luckily no Austrian has ever been responsible for any kind of sick ideology.
    Point of order. The person to whom you presumably refer self-identified as Deutsch. Very firmly so.
    He wasn’t so hot on self-identification though.
    To be accurate, Hitler only became a Greater Germany guy after WWI - previously the Austro-Hungarian Empire had too many errrrr...... non-Germans in it for his taste. WIth it reduced to just Austria.....
    Interesting fact - Hitler was stripped of Austrian citizenship in 1925, but didn’t receive German citizenship until 1932 when he needed it to stand in the Presidential elections. For seven years, he was stateless.
    So for seven years he was in fact a rootless cosmopolitan?
    Are you referring to the rumours about his grandfather?
    Nah, cheap gag about Hitler being Jewish using one of Stalin's (in)famous antisemitic lines.

    Even to this day I cannot get my ahead the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

    Given how much Hitler detested the Bolsheviks he went into alliance with Stalin's CCCP.
    Stalin thought he'd found someone he could really relate to - he was devastated when Hitler attacked.

    Hitler thought he'd found someone just like him.

    Both, of course would have done the dirty on the other, with joy. Hitler just wanted war first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    Farage’s show was the most watched show on the channel this week, and beat Sky News Tonight with Dermot Murnaghan every single day it was on air:

    Monday 19th:

    Farage – 96.3k/Peak: 108k
    Sky News Tonight – 75.4k/Peak: 78k
    BBC Outside Source – 109.5k/Peak: 125.1k
    Tuesday 20th:

    Farage – 85.3k/Peak: 99.8k
    Sky News Tonight – 53.9k/Peak: 63.3k
    BBC Outside Source – 91.8k/Peak: 150.7k
    Wednesday 21st:

    Farage – 71.7k/Peak: 83.6k
    Sky News Tonight – 62.1k/Peak: 70.9k
    BBC Outside Source – 86.4k/Peak: 93k
    Thursday 22nd:

    Farage – 67.1k/Peak: 78.6k
    Sky News Tonight – 55.8k/Peak: 60.8k
    BBC Outside Source – 132.2k/Peak: 146.1k

    https://order-order.com/2021/07/26/exclusive-farages-gb-news-debut-week-is-ratings-victory/

    Come on own up, who has had every telly in their house on to bump the numbers up?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,891
    edited July 2021
    ..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221

    kle4 said:

    That’s a big difference:

    Poll – Labour voters are more likely to be annoyed at a friend voting Tory than a Tory voter would be at a friend voting Labour

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682003889315842?s=20

    15% & 46% respectively…..

    What about disappointed, would that reverse things? As the cliche is Labour thinks Tory supporters are bad people, Tories think Labour supporters are stupid people.
    The quote I remember is Labour think Tories are bad people, Tories think Labour are good people who believe bad ideas.
    Well im sure that's the Tory version of the quote at any rate :)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858
    rkrkrk said:

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
    Good news welcome no matter the source.

    I didn't/don't really believe in the government's policy - I think it's a huge gamble, and an unsound one. It's possible though that they've got this right, and I applaud them wildly if so.

    I'm with you on schools. The evidence seems to suggest that schools and unis are completely irrelevant. I find that hard to believe, and if there was no evidence otherwise I'd be firmly of the opinion that its the young that are the biggest issue in this.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,904

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (=)
    LAB: 37% (+2)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN 5% (=)
    SNP 4% (=)

    Via @Survation 23 Jul.
    Changes w/ 19-20 Jul.


    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682164468297733?s=20

    Labour is actually ahead (by ONE person) in the raw data - they just have slightly lower certainty to vote. The income pattern is familiar - Labour is clearly ahead among the poor and level pegging among the rich (>£40K), but clearly behind in the £20-40K bracket. The Tory advantage among the elderly continues though it's now "only" 2-1.

    I think Starner's bounce reflects the lack of public appearances up to now - many people felt meh, I hardly ever see him, he must be useless, and after a couple of strong interventions they revise their view.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,785

    "sort of amazed anyone should think that is controversial or tendentious"

    FFS....this man isn't just a moron, he is a danger to public health.

    He is spreading a mad conspiracy theory and given the number of replies he had on twitter from accounts that aren't bob595377 i.e of some public standing, he is ignoring the evidence he has been presented.
    Replying to @Peston
    There's no formal definition of what constitutes "seriously understating", but I'd never use it to describe a discrepancy of less than 1%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    Wayne Rooney reports photos to Greater Manchester Police

    Poor Wayne has clearly never heard of the Streisand effect....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,322
    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
    I don't think it's much to do with schools.

    If you look at how this iteration of the virus has spread, hitting populous, dense parts of Scotland and Northern England first, then the Midlands, then routing south, it is running out of high density niches to hit, and so prevalence is falling.

    It is running out of the herd-vulnerable, if you like.
    I've mentioned in the past, that in a number of situations where COVID "runs wild" it dies back long before it gets to everyone having antibodies.

    This seems to be a constant across many countries.

    RCS thinks this relates to self-imposed isolation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,332
    Andy_JS said:

    Boris's opening up on 19th July doesn't seem to have generated the increase in cases that many were expecting.

    The (slightly older) people out at the weekend in the WMC to see live music wouldn't have been rushing off down to the nightclubs at 1 minute past midnight, if there's an effect from the full unlock it'll hit reported around friday or saturday when me, or slightly more likely given the demographic he was mixing with Saturday @MaxPB go down with it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,632
    rcs1000 said:

    More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57968651

    Over a typical 18 month period, what are the normal numbers?
    As a guesstimate I suspect average weight at start of adulthood is perhaps 70-75kg increasing to 80-85k peak in late middle age. So 10kg over 40 years, or 0.25kg per year, or about 0.35kg since start of covid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    edited July 2021

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (=)
    LAB: 37% (+2)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN 5% (=)
    SNP 4% (=)

    Via @Survation 23 Jul.
    Changes w/ 19-20 Jul.


    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682164468297733?s=20

    Labour is actually ahead (by ONE person) in the raw data - they just have slightly lower certainty to vote. The income pattern is familiar - Labour is clearly ahead among the poor and level pegging among the rich (>£40K), but clearly behind in the £20-40K bracket. The Tory advantage among the elderly continues though it's now "only" 2-1.

    I think Starner's bounce reflects the lack of public appearances up to now - many people felt meh, I hardly ever see him, he must be useless, and after a couple of strong interventions they revise their view.
    He was all over the media prior to the local elections. And then did Piers Morgan show....etc etc etc.

    I think it is more to do with the dogs breakfast of the over hyped "Freedom Day" by the government, all the messing about with holidays and the fear due to rising cases.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (=)
    LAB: 37% (+2)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN 5% (=)
    SNP 4% (=)

    Via @Survation 23 Jul.
    Changes w/ 19-20 Jul.


    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419682164468297733?s=20

    Labour is actually ahead (by ONE person) in the raw data - they just have slightly lower certainty to vote. The income pattern is familiar - Labour is clearly ahead among the poor and level pegging among the rich (>£40K), but clearly behind in the £20-40K bracket. The Tory advantage among the elderly continues though it's now "only" 2-1.

    I think Starner's bounce reflects the lack of public appearances up to now - many people felt meh, I hardly ever see him, he must be useless, and after a couple of strong interventions they revise their view.
    Are you now a keen Starmer-ite?

    I cannot fathom how you can support Corbyn (even when pressed) and now find yourself in the SKS camp. I could do so if it was just a shirt colour, but I know it isn't.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,989

    Pro_Rata said:

    Should we be worried about the heat map of Cases by specimen date age demographics?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

    That concerns me a little. I guess the key piece of information is the balance of vaccinated to unvaccinated cases as it progresses into older people. If it's mainly vaccinated mild cases, then there are fewer hospital capacity worries than if it is finding the unvaccinated effectively.

    Watch for how deaths and hospitalisation follow cases, or not, in the next couple of weeks. I have to say, the Hospitalisation increase has been slowing down.

    The other thing is that the decrease in cases is for something of a hiatus period - after the Euros but before the nightclub reopening. I expect clubbing is a large enough niche to turn the case figures northwards again temporarily, though with the decrease now, I'm hopeful it will not top the case figures of a week or so ago.
    It's massively the younger groups making up the cases

    image
    Thanks. Takes a little thinking to reconcile that with the heatmap, but 60 per 100k (per day presumably) is into the purple, just, for those 40/50s age ranges. I guess the heatmap has limitations, in that progression through the greens and blues is visually more dramatic than the progression through the purples into progressively deeper purples.

    In other words, from the heatmap, you can't see how fiercely the fire raging that well, but the smoke on the water is clearly visible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,221

    "sort of amazed anyone should think that is controversial or tendentious"

    FFS....this man isn't just a moron, he is a danger to public health.

    He is spreading a mad conspiracy theory and given the number of replies he had on twitter from accounts that aren't bob595377 i.e of some public standing, he is ignoring the evidence he has been presented.
    Replying to @Peston
    There's no formal definition of what constitutes "seriously understating", but I'd never use it to describe a discrepancy of less than 1%.
    Damn adverbs can help you weasel an explanation away, but can also screw you, as here.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,236

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Floater said:

    This is unusually blunt

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/sebastian-kurz-exklusiv-ich-will-diese-kranke-ideologie-nicht-in-europa-77190376.bild.html

    AUSTRIA'S CHANCELLOR BRIEFLY ON IMMIGRANT ISLAMISM
    "I don't want this sick ideology in Europe"

    Luckily no Austrian has ever been responsible for any kind of sick ideology.
    Point of order. The person to whom you presumably refer self-identified as Deutsch. Very firmly so.
    He wasn’t so hot on self-identification though.
    To be accurate, Hitler only became a Greater Germany guy after WWI - previously the Austro-Hungarian Empire had too many errrrr...... non-Germans in it for his taste. WIth it reduced to just Austria.....
    Interesting fact - Hitler was stripped of Austrian citizenship in 1925, but didn’t receive German citizenship until 1932 when he needed it to stand in the Presidential elections. For seven years, he was stateless.
    So for seven years he was in fact a rootless cosmopolitan?
    Are you referring to the rumours about his grandfather?
    Nah, cheap gag about Hitler being Jewish using one of Stalin's (in)famous antisemitic lines.

    Even to this day I cannot get my ahead the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

    Given how much Hitler detested the Bolsheviks he went into alliance with Stalin's CCCP.
    The pact made a lot of sense, for both parties. Neither expected it to last, but it enabled them to divide Eastern Europe with a minimum of fuss, and gave Hitler a free hand in the West, plus access to Soviet foodstuffs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    edited July 2021

    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
    I don't think it's much to do with schools.

    If you look at how this iteration of the virus has spread, hitting populous, dense parts of Scotland and Northern England first, then the Midlands, then routing south, it is running out of high density niches to hit, and so prevalence is falling.

    It is running out of the herd-vulnerable, if you like.
    I've mentioned in the past, that in a number of situations where COVID "runs wild" it dies back long before it gets to everyone having antibodies.

    This seems to be a constant across many countries.

    RCS thinks this relates to self-imposed isolation.
    I think RCS has a point....now everybody is on WhatsApp / Facebook etc, you don't need to be plugged into the data matrix like Prof Peston to start getting lots of messages in group chats saying Bob has gone down with it, Phil has now, to make people start altering their behaviour.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,451
    Andy_JS said:

    Boris's opening up on 19th July doesn't seem to have generated the increase in cases that many were expecting.

    I think too much time is spent looking for reasons for the way the virus behaves. The virus will always do what it wants and I know I keep saying it but the way cases fell of a cliff in India despite there being very little social distancing there showed that Delta infects quickly and then just as quickly stops infecting. It happened in Scotland, Holland and its now happening in England.

    Its why it was the most astute move to not open up in June. The Government knew big case rises were coming and knew the headlines they would get.

    If you remember they refused to open up when there were 6,000 cases per day but did open up when there were 50,000 cases per day. They knew the way Delta behaved.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – Leadership Favourability Ratings:

    Boris Johnson / Keir Starmer

    Net Rating: -10% (+3) / -2% (+12)

    Favourable 37% (+2) / 33% (+6)
    Neutral 15% (-2) / 26% (+1)
    Unfavourable 47% (-1) / 35% (-7)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July '21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1419683085403176960/photo/1

    Boris still has a 4 point lead over Keir.

    Is Keir ever going to breakthrough?
    Sir Kier has an 8 point net favourability rating over Mr Johnson. So yes.
    Net isn't that significant, its the gross figures that matter - as @MikeSmithson and other experts have said before.

    So no, not yet. Keir is trailing Boris as he always does on the gross approval figures.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,904
    What happened to that other poll that was promised for this afternoon?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,322
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Should we be worried about the heat map of Cases by specimen date age demographics?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

    That concerns me a little. I guess the key piece of information is the balance of vaccinated to unvaccinated cases as it progresses into older people. If it's mainly vaccinated mild cases, then there are fewer hospital capacity worries than if it is finding the unvaccinated effectively.

    Watch for how deaths and hospitalisation follow cases, or not, in the next couple of weeks. I have to say, the Hospitalisation increase has been slowing down.

    The other thing is that the decrease in cases is for something of a hiatus period - after the Euros but before the nightclub reopening. I expect clubbing is a large enough niche to turn the case figures northwards again temporarily, though with the decrease now, I'm hopeful it will not top the case figures of a week or so ago.
    It's massively the younger groups making up the cases

    image
    Thanks. Takes a little thinking to reconcile that with the heatmap, but 60 per 100k (per day presumably) is into the purple, just, for those 40/50s age ranges. I guess the heatmap has limitations, in that progression through the greens and blues is visually more dramatic than the progression through the purples into progressively deeper purples.

    In other words, from the heatmap, you can't see how fiercely the fire raging that well, but the smoke on the water is clearly visible.
    That is scaled to 100K per day

    This is the raw data per age group

    image
  • What happened to that other poll that was promised for this afternoon?

    Usually comes out at 5pm or shortly thereafter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,520
    edited July 2021
    I can't imagine the pingdemic is doing the Tories much good. Its been the #1 story the media have been talking about for a couple of weeks now.

    I got contacted by a friend who I was trying to sort out going to meet up with and they are in isolation.....for the 3rd time in 5-6 weeks....they literally come out of it, got pinged the next day or so, and none of those times have they had COVID.

    To say they were pissed about Boris / government would be like saying Prof Peston was a bit of a wally.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,644

    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
    I don't think it's much to do with schools.

    If you look at how this iteration of the virus has spread, hitting populous, dense parts of Scotland and Northern England first, then the Midlands, then routing south, it is running out of high density niches to hit, and so prevalence is falling.

    It is running out of the herd-vulnerable, if you like.
    I've mentioned in the past, that in a number of situations where COVID "runs wild" it dies back long before it gets to everyone having antibodies.

    This seems to be a constant across many countries.

    RCS thinks this relates to self-imposed isolation.
    I think RCS has a point....now everybody is on WhatsApp / Facebook etc, you don't need to be plugged into the data matrix like Prof Peston to start getting lots of messages in group chats saying Bob has gone down with it, Phil has now, to make people start altering their behaviour.
    The issue there is that you are using anecdotes instead of actual data and worse treating those one off anecdotes as long standing historic data. And I don't think that's sensible.
  • NEW THREAD

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